跟读练习: What the Chessboard for WW3 Looks Like - Prof. Jiang Xueqin - 通过YouTube学习英语口语
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We have seven more classes left in the semester.
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We have seven more classes left in the semester.
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And what I want to do in these last seven classes is look at the game theory of World War III.
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So what I want to do in this class is just introduce the chessboard,
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or the players, and how the game will be played over the next five to ten years.
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So the two major players in World War III are the United States and Russia.
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And right now, they are fighting a proxy war in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.
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Where the United States obviously supports Israel, Russia supports Iran.
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And what's going to happen is that this war in the Middle East,
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it's going to spread out and it will engulf the entire world.
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So what I want to do today is look at the individual players,
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USA, Israel, Iran, and Russia,
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and explain to you who they are and how they will play this game.
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And once we understand their strategy,
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then it's going to be pretty easy for us to make certain predictions about how they will behave.
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So that's the first thing that I want to point out.
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The other thing that I'll point out is that there's a lot of people who believe that peace can be achieved.
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this war is a temporary thing and that once Donald Trump leaves office,
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once the United States divorces Israel,
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then peace will come to the world.
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And that's not true.
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Because on one hand, what's driving this World War III is a conflict between these four nations.
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But on the other hand,
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the other force that's driving this conflict is the internal tensions within these countries.
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So before, we looked at the idea of elite overproduction.
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And so the idea is that the elite are parasites that collect rent from the people.
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And so whoever who's in the elite can exploit other people.
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So there's competition to join the elite.
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And when you have too many people who are trying to join the elite,
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this creates internal conflict.
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And this is what's happening throughout the world today.
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So World War III, it's not just being driven by the disparities between these four nations.
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It's really being driven by internal politics within these countries, okay?
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So let me put this in a very simple way.
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Right now, the people who run the world are transnational capital.
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Okay?
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And a very simple way of saying this is that if you're a rich person in Russia,
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you're incentivized to work with rich people in Iran,
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Israel, and the United States.
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And as a result, for the longest time,
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we've been able to achieve global peace and prosperity.
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But because they only get richer and richer,
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more powerful, this causes resentment among other elite forces in these countries.
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And so there are three major forces that oppose transnational capital within these four countries.
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So let's just list them.
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The first is of course nationalism.
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There are people like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin who believe that it's important to put their nation first.
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That globalism is hurting their own people and their own nation.
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So that's one force that opposes transnational capital.
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Another force that opposes transnational capital is religion or orthodoxy.
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Why?
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Because capital believes that money is God.
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It is Godless, it is secular.
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And it tries to create a multicultural,
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secular society in order to allow capital to pass through society easily.
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That also allows capital to control and dominate society.
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So religion is opposed to transnational capital as well.
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And the last force that's opposed to transnational capital is artificial intelligence, okay?
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AI.
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Why?
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Because right now, money is what structures society.
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And artificial intelligence wants to replace money as a force that structures and centers society.
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Okay?
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So, in other words, what's happening is that there's a civil war going on in the world where right now,
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transnational capital is dominant and transnational capital is represented by Wall Street and City of London.
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And there are these three forces,
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nationalism, religion, and technology that oppose transnational capital.
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So what's gonna happen over time is that they will form an alliance to defeat transnational capital.
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And so this is already happening in America where these three forces come together and they support Donald Trump.
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And so what drives a lot of Donald Trump's policies is to help his alliance ultimately defeat transnational capital, okay?
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That's something that we'll discuss for the rest of the semester.
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So another thing that I'll point out is this.
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Okay, internally there is a civil war going on,
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but externally as well, there are forces that drive these nations to war.
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And this is basically environmental collapse.
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So for the past few decades,
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we humans have been very lucky in that there have been no major ecological disasters.
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But if you look at human history, weather patterns fluctuate.
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So many speculate that we are heading towards a time of extreme weather patterns.
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That means that it becomes harder to grow food.
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It means it's harder to access energy.
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And so this is going to put strain on the world.
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And so the world needs to compete for precious resources.
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And quite honestly, we are going to probably approach a time in human history when famine It will be much more common.
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We thought that we defeated famine.
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We thought that we had developed a system that could feed anyone and everyone.
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But over the next few years,
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we'll discover an increase in famine around the world and an increase in ecological disasters around the world.
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So this is the schematic that I want you to understand.
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In World War III, there will be four major players,
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the United States, Israel, Iran,
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and Russia, and they are competing for global dominance.
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No one will win, but the conflict among these four nations will drive geopolitics for the next five to 10 years.
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This conflict is driven not just by disputes among these countries,
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it's mainly driven by internal civil discord within these countries.
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The two forces are the transnational capital versus a coalition of nationalist,
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religious people, as well as tech people, okay?
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And they have their champions.
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So in America, they have Trump.
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Trump's national capital is represented by Carney, Mark Carney.
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We'll talk more about him later, okay?
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Mark Carney is currently the Prime Minister of Canada.
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Okay, so they have their different champions,
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and they're gonna fight this war.
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Now, one question that you're gonna have,
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which is the most obvious question is,
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yeah, but what about everyone else, right?
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What about China?
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What about India?
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What about Brazil?
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What about South Africa?
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And yes, it is true,
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oh sorry, and what about Europe?
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And Japan, right?
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And then South Korea.
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And while it is true that these are major economies with a lot of people,
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and it is true that they could in theory have great militaries.
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I will show you what makes these four nations distinct,
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USA, Israel, Iran, and Russia.
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What makes them distinct is that they have a grand strategy that allows them to mobilize their population for total war.
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That's what makes them distinct, okay?
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I'll show you this later on.
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So let me explain to you how this dynamic will play out.
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So you have US, A, Russia, Iran, Israel.
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So the major players that will determine how these four play the games are of course Europe,
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China, Japan, India.
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Okay, alright, so I understand that a lot of people believe
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that China and the United States are in competition with each other.
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That is not true.
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The reason why is that China does not have what we call a grand strategy.
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A grand strategy is just how you perceive geopolitics and how you want to dominate geopolitics.
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China does not do grand strategy.
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China is called 中国.
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Okay?
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中国 means the middle kingdom.
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The idea of the Middle Kingdom is that we are a universe onto ourselves.
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We don't care what happens outside of this universe.
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We would like others to pay tribute to our cultural superiority and we could help develop your other civilizations,
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but honestly, we don't care.
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So China has always been an isolationist society for most of its history.
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Today yes, I understand for these past few decades China has become much more globalized,
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has become much more international,
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much more cosmopolitan, but this is not part of the Chinese tradition.
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So what's happening today, these past few decades, it is an aberration.
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It goes against cultural norms in China.
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But in the long term,
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China will return to its cultural norms and become much more isolationist.
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So China doesn't really matter in the great scheme of things, okay?
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The same is true for India as well.
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All right, so I know India and China have a lot of people,
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but historically they have not really mattered in geopolitics.
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And that's to do with their cultural values and norms.
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Okay?
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Does that make sense?
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Alright.
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So, there are right now three major battlefields in the world.
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The first, obviously, is Ukraine,
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where NATO and Russia are fighting each other, okay?
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And this is a proxy war between the United States and Russia because the United States controls Europe and NATO.
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The second major battlefield, of course,
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is Iran, where right now the United States and Israel is attacking Iran and trying to force it into a surrender.
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Now, the last battlefield is actually in North America, Cuba.
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Okay?
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So this is not really discussed a lot.
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What's been happening is the United States has been embargoing Cuba,
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trying to blockade it, trying to cause society to collapse,
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and Russia has been trying to save Cuba, okay?
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So these are the three major battlefronts we're seeing right now.
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Now, obviously what's going to happen is that more battlefronts will break out.
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Okay?
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And what's going to happen is that as this conflict increases,
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the conflict between the United States and Russia will increase as well.
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So one major area of contention is the oceans.
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Okay?
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Why?
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Why?
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Because the United States believes that it controls all trade access.
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Because the oceans represent trade access.
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And so what the United States has been doing is it has been seizing Russian Shadow Fleet tankers.
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And so what's going to happen is that the Russians will eventually decide to arm its ships,
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and this will create a war in the oceans, okay?
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So that's one trend that we will see happening.
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Another trend that we'll see happening is the rise of Germany and Japan.
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Okay?
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And why?
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Well, historically, the most powerful nation in Europe has been Germany.
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Historically, the most powerful nation in East Asia has been Japan.
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The United States defeated both in World War II.
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And, but now that the United States is at war of Russia,
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it needs proxies, it needs allies to counter both the threat of Russia as well as China.
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So it makes sense that what the United States is gonna do is it's gonna arm Israel to counter Iran,
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it's gonna arm Germany to counter Russia,
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and it's gonna arm Japan to counter China.
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Okay?
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And what's going to happen now is that you have new,
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in this conflict, you have other players emerge that will take advantage of these conflicts to amass more power for themselves.
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So think about North Korea in East Asia, okay?
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Because North Korea is a military society and it can threaten South Korea, Japan, and China.
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Then in Europe you have Poland.
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In the Middle East you have Turkey.
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So these nations are going to try to navigate all this chaos in order to amass more power for themselves.
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So in other words, what's going to happen is complete chaos in World War III.
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Okay, and something that we'll discuss more concretely for the rest of the semester.
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