Shadowing Practice: How the Iran War is Affecting Life in Vietnam - Learn English Speaking with Video
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I've been in Vietnam the better part of 17 years, long enough to know when things feel off.
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In the last few weeks, with spiking fuel prices, airline disruptions, friction across the economy, things have felt off,
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all tied to a war 5,000 kilometers away.
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This video is about what's actually happening here, but more than that, about the economic system Vietnam has built over the past few decades.
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But first, some quick facts to ground us.
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February 28th, U.S and Israel launch coordinated strikes against Iran.
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Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed on the first day.
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Iran responds with missiles and drones against Israel, U.S bases and allied targets across the region.
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A month later, war is ongoing, and crucially, it has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly a quarter of the world's traded oil passes.
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For Vietnam, the direct human impact is limited.
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About 10,000-12,000 Vietnamese citizens work in the Middle East.
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Middle East.
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Embassies are running 24-hour hotlines.
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About 38 Vietnamese citizens were evacuated from Tehran, most of them embassy personnel.
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Since the start of the war, eight Vietnamese cargo ships with 160 crew members have been stuck in the Persian Gulf.
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The Vietnamese government continues to try to negotiate safe passage.
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So few Vietnamese are directly endangered by the war.
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But the bigger impact?
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Let me just say it goes deeper than a temporary spike in fuel prices.
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Here's a number that puts Vietnam's situation in sharp relief.
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Japan holds 254 days of petroleum reserves.
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South Korea, 208.
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Vietnam, between 5 and 15 days, depending on your source.
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That's a shocking number for a country of 100 million people.
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And to make it worse, Vietnam's highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil.
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Roughly 87% of the country's imported oil comes from the Middle East.
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Most of that comes in as crude, refined domestically.
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Some comes in as already refined, ready-to-use fuel.
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But right now, both streams are under pressure.
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And what's even crazier is Vietnam is an oil producer.
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From the 1990s into the 2010s, it was even an oil exporter, pumping more than it needed and selling surplus abroad.
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But then two things happened.
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The economy grew, which meant more factories, motorbikes, people using lights, and oil fields started running dry.
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In other words, demand rose, production fell.
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And Vietnam went from being a net exporter of oil to a net importer, without building the strategic reserves most importers need.
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Now the government knows this, it already has plans to increase its strategic reserves to 90 days by the end of the decade, but that's in the future.
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Right now, the straits closed, Vietnam's exposed, and the longer this goes on, the worse it's going to get.
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So what's it look like on the ground?
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Let me show you something.
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So right now gas in Hanoi is around 25,000 Vietnamese dong a liter, a little under a dollar.
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Not a lot by global standards, but quite a bit for people making local wages.
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And a month ago, it was just around 19,000 in exchange.
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So prices have gone up over 30 some percent in about 30 days highest they've been since Russia invaded Ukraine.
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The first week of the war, there were lines everywhere.
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And I understand that was more of a northern Vietnam phenomenon than anywhere else.
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There were reports of hoarding, stations were capping purchases.
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That eased fairly quickly.
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For one thing, the government dipped into a price stabilization fund, which is like this kitty of money that they used to, just what it sounds like,
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stabilize oil prices when volatility enters the oil markets.
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They also cut down on hoarding.
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And in the end, a lot of those lines turned out to be panic buying more than actual shortages.
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So the lines are gone, but the prices are still pretty high.
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The aviation industry is feeling it hard.
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Jet fuel prices have tripled.
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China and Thailand, Vietnam's two main jet fuel suppliers, have both cut off exports.
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The government warned if the war persisted, there might be flight cuts in April.
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Well, those already began in March.
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Reddit boards are lighting up with reports about canceled domestic flights.
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And beyond that, across the economy, farmers are dealing with increased fuel and fertilizer costs.
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Transportation companies, trucks and buses and taxis are all dealing with higher operating costs.
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Diesel shortages have started the slow construction progress, including some high-profile builds in places like Phu Quoc.
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So day-to-day, Hanover feels normal, but crises are higher, and underneath the surface, pressure on the economy is building.
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So the real story is this, and I don't think anyone's talking about it.
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The Iran war is a stress test for Vietnam's economic model, and for every company that thought they were reducing risk by coming here.
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Let me explain what I mean.
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Vietnam's economic model, the one that's driven growth over the last 30 years, is built on a few pillars.
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Cheap labor, foreign investment, manufacturing, integration into global supply chains.
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And that's worked incredibly well.
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For the past couple of decades, Vietnam's averaged 6-7% annual GDP growth.
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And that also dovetailed with things that were going on in the world.
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A few years ago, huge global companies like Samsung, Nike, Intel, began moving manufacturing out of China, a strategy known as China Plus One.
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The logic was simple.
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Don't put all your eggs in one basket, reduce dependence on China, spread the risk.
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And much of that business came here to Vietnam.
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I washed it from my terrace.
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But here's the irony.
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It's a big one.
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Right now, China is handling the economic fallout of this war better than any country in Asia.
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In fact, they spent decades preparing for this kind of moment.
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They've been stockpiling oil for years.
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They have an estimated reserve of over a billion barrels.
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Electrifying their transport system, more than half of the vehicles on the road right now are electric vehicles.
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Their grid is increasingly powered by domestic sources, solar, wind, nuclear, all built on a massive scale.
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The point is, China prepared, Vietnam didn't.
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It industrialized quickly, but on imported energy.
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So while Vietnam and its neighbors are scrambling, China is relatively insulated.
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And that raises uncomfortable questions for all those companies that moved here.
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Because while they reduce their dependence on China, they increase their dependence on a supply chain that moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
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In other words, they traded geopolitical risk for supply chain risk.
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So the Iran war isn't just disrupting Vietnam, it's revealing how the whole system works.
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A model built on speed, exports and growth, but dependent on something very far away and now uncertain.
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That system is what's being pressure tested right now.
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So what's Vietnam actually doing about this?
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Well, a lot actually.
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The government's been moving pretty fast.
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They cut import taxes on fuel to 0% through April.
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Prime Minister Fat Minh Ching has been personally reaching out to Japan, South Korea, Angola and Algeria for alternative crude supplies.
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Vietnam was already planning to switch to E10 ethanol blended fuel, that's regular gas mixed with domestically produced bioethanol, nationwide in June.
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They've moved that timeline up to April.
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So they've taken actions to mitigate short-term harm, but short-term isn't the question here.
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The question is whether this becomes a real wake-up call or a disruption that passes without changing anything fundamental.
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I see evidence on both sides.
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Signs that it could be a wake-up call, that same recent government directive that moved up ethanol-based fuel has also called for speeding up domestic EV production,
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expanding solar and wind projects, in other words, decreasing oil dependency, increasing domestic renewables like China.
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Vietnam's EV sector, VinFast, DotBike, have been seeing a surge in consumer interest.
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People are doing the math.
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And this week Vietnam signed an agreement with Russia's Rosatom to build the first of two nuclear power plants in Henghua, and they also met with Novotek,
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a major Russian producer of liquid natural gas.
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So they're pushing hard to diversify energy sources, which is smart.
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But signs that this might not stick.
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Most of these aren't new ideas.
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They were already on the map, though war just moved the timeline forward.
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Ethanol fuel, expanded domestic reserves, those were already planned.
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And this nuclear plant, Russia stepped in because Japan pulled out.
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They've been talking about it for years.
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There's still no clear costs.
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And Vietnam's timeline of five years is widely considered unrealistic.
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So war moved the timeline, but it didn't create the vision.
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And we've seen this before, like when Russia invaded Ukraine.
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There's a shock to the oil markets, there's a sense of urgency, and once oil prices stabilize, all that urgency fades.
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But here's what I keep coming back to, and this is a major strength.
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Look at what Vietnam is actually doing at this moment.
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Asking Japan and South Korea for help.
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Sourcing oil from Angola and Algeria.
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Signing nuclear deals with Russia, all at the same time.
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That's not scrambling, that's Vietnam's diplomatic DNA, something the country's been doing for decades.
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Non-aligned foreign policy, political-economic relationships on every side, all by design.
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So Vietnam's geopolitical strategy, its bonhom policy, which I've talked about before, is all serving as an asset at this moment.
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I've watched this country navigate a complicated world for 17 years.
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It doesn't pick sides.
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It preserves its options.
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So the real question isn't whether Vietnam survives this stress test, it will.
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It's what it learns from it and whether this time the urgency will stick.
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Of course, I'm not just watching this as an analyst or a commentator.
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I live here, my wife's Vietnamese, we're raising our son here.
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A few months ago, I made a video in which I discussed Vietnam's three possible futures, the leap, middle-income trap, or the drift.
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And to be honest, none of the scenarios I envisioned accounted for this.
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But we made a bet that our son's future, our family's future, would be better here than in the U.S
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and the model we bet on is being stress tested right now.
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Now I'm not panicking, Vietnam has faced much harder things than this, but I'm watching closely and if you live here, come from here, or just care about the place, you should too.
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One last thing, I don't usually make videos like this.
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No deep history, no object to unpack, Just a gut take on current events.
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A subscriber asked me to try it, so here we are.
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So let me know what you think.
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If this kind of content is useful or interesting to you, or not, let me know in the comments.
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And thank you for watching.
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Bu dersin kelimeleri ve konuşma notları
Bu B2 seviyesindeki konuşma dersi “How the Iran War is Affecting Life in Vietnam” videosuna dayanıyor. En çok tekrarlanan kelimeler: Vietnam, oil, fuel, China, price. Bu videoda gölgeleme çalışması için 146 cümle ve 1785 kelime var. Konuşma bölümü 9:50 sürüyor. Konuşmacı hızlı konuşuyor, dakikada yaklaşık 182 kelime; bu yüzden birbirine bağlanan ve zayıflayan sesler duyacaksınız. Kelimelerin yalnızca %80’i İngilizcede en sık kullanılan 3.000 kelime arasında, bu yüzden kelime dağarcığı zorlayıcı.
Bu videodaki önemli kelimeler
Videodaki en ileri düzey 15 kelime, telaffuzu ve anlamıyla:
| Kelime | Telaffuz | Anlam |
|---|---|---|
| ethanol isim | /ˈɛθ.ə.nɑl/ | etanol |
| urgency isim | /ˈɜː.d͡ʒən.si/ | aciliyet, ivedilik |
| import isim | /ˈɪm.pɔɹt/ | ithal |
| exporter isim | ihracatçı | |
| importer isim | /ɪmˈpɔː(ɹ)tə(ɹ)/ | ithalatçı |
| scramble fiil | /ˈskɹæmbl̩/ | acele etmek |
| stabilize fiil | /ˈsteɪ.bəˌlaɪz/ | stabilize etmek |
| invade fiil | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | istila etmek |
| disruption isim | /dɪsˈɹʌpʃən/ | inkıta, kesilme |
| shortage isim | /ˈʃɔː(ɹ)tɪd͡ʒ/ | azlık, kesinti |
| spike isim | /spaɪk/ | ekser |
| embassy isim | /ˈɛmbəsi/ | sefarethane, elçilik |
| dovetail isim | /ˈdʌvˌteɪl/ | kurtağzı, kırlangıç kuyruğu |
| stabilization isim | /ˌsteɪ.bəl.ɪzˈeɪ.ʃən/ | stabilizasyon |
| stockpile isim | /ˈstɑkˌpaɪl/ | stok, rezerv |
Duyacağınız deyimsel fiiller
| Kelime | Telaffuz | Anlam |
|---|---|---|
| wake up fiil | /ˌweɪk ˈʌp/ | uyanmak |
| speed up fiil | /spiːdˈʌp/ | hızlanmak, hızlandırmak |
Bu videodaki dil bilgisi
Konuşmacının en çok kullandığı yapılar, videodaki sözcüklerin aynısıyla:
| Yapı | Videoda |
|---|---|
| Present perfect continuous have/has been + -ing — önceden başlayıp hâlâ süren bir eylem | They've been stockpiling · government's been moving · have been seeing |
| Present perfect have/has + fiilin üçüncü hâli — geçmişte olan ama şimdi de önemli olan bir eylem | I've been · have felt · has built |
| Edilgen yapı be + fiilin üçüncü hâli — kimin yaptığı değil, ne olduğu önemli | is killed · were evacuated · have been stuck |
| İlgi cümlecikleri who / which + cümle — bir kişi ya da şey hakkında ek bilgi | fund, which is · sources, which is |
Dikkat edilecek telaffuzlar
Konuşmacı they've, don't, I'm gibi kısaltılmış biçimleri 24 kez kullanıyor. Bunları duyduğunuz gibi kısa söyleyin.
- “th” sesleri: ethanol /ˈɛθ.ə.nɑl/, underneath /ˌʌndɚˈniθ/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/
- “sh” ve “zh” sesleri: disruption /dɪsˈɹʌpʃən/, shortage /ˈʃɔː(ɹ)tɪd͡ʒ/, crucially /ˈkɹuːʃəli/, envision /ɪnˈvɪʒn̩/, stabilization /ˌsteɪ.bəl.ɪzˈeɪ.ʃən/
- Uzun kelimeler — vurguyu doğru yere koyun: diversify /daɪˈvɝ.sə.faɪ/, electrify /ɪˈlɛktɹɪfaɪ/, industrialize /ɪnˈdʌstɹiəlaɪz/, stabilization /ˌsteɪ.bəl.ɪzˈeɪ.ʃən/, volatility /ˌvɑ.ləˈtɪl.ə.ti/
Türkçe konuşanların zorlandığı sesler:
- /w/ — dudaklar yuvarlak, /v/ değil: warn /woɹn/, nationwide /ˌneɪ.ʃənˈwaɪd/
- Kelime başındaki ünsüz kümesi — araya ünlü eklemeyin: scramble /ˈskɹæmbl̩/, stabilize /ˈsteɪ.bəˌlaɪz/, spike /spaɪk/, crude /kɹuːd/, crucially /ˈkɹuːʃəli/
- /æ/ — “e”den daha açık: scramble /ˈskɹæmbl̩/, unpack /ʌnˈpæk/, evacuate /ɪˈvæk.ju.eɪt/, navigate /ˈnæv.ɪ.ɡeɪt/, analyst /ˈænəlɪst/
Bu videoyla nasıl çalışılır
- Videonun tamamını konuşmadan bir kez dinleyin ve bilmediğiniz kelimeleri not edin.
- 0,75× hızla başlayın, cümle cümle tekrar edin ve kolaylaşınca normal hıza dönün.
- Kendinizi kaydedin ve orijinaliyle karşılaştırın; ethanol, urgency, import gibi kelimelere özellikle dikkat edin.
Gölgeleme Tekniği Nedir?
Gölgeleme, başlangıçta profesyonel tercüman eğitimi için geliştirilen ve çok dilli Dr. Alexander Arguelles tarafından popüler hale getirilen, bilim destekli bir dil öğrenme tekniğidir. Yöntem basit ama güçlüdür: ana dili İngilizce olan bir sesi dinler ve hemen yüksek sesle tekrar edersiniz — konuşmacıyı 1-2 saniye gecikmeyle takip eden bir gölge gibi. Pasif dinleme veya dilbilgisi alıştırmalarının aksine, gölgeleme beyninizi ve ağız kaslarınızı gerçek konuşma kalıplarını eşzamanlı olarak işlemeye ve yeniden üretmeye zorlar. Araştırmalar, telaffuz doğruluğu, tonlama, ritim, bağlı konuşma, dinleme anlama ve konuşma akıcılığını önemli ölçüde geliştirdiğini göstermektedir — bu da onu IELTS Konuşma hazırlığı ve gerçek dünya İngilizce iletişimi için en etkili yöntemlerden biri yapar.