Shadowing Practice: I'm Shorting. - Learn English Speaking with Video

Over the weekend, we had a lot more headlines

that seemed to be promising an end to the Strait of Hormuz debacle and the Iran,

Israel, and U.S war.

The question is, is that going to happen?

And if so, is oil headed back down to $60 a barrel?

Are gas prices finally going to give consumers a little bit of a relief?

Well, we'll talk about a little bit of that here in today's video.

But more importantly, what this could mean for markets specifically like gold,

silver, the stock market, which is up a lot here today,

but perhaps not as much as you might expect.

We are up 1% on the S&P 500,

1.47% here on the NASDAQ,

the Dow Jones flying back to a fresh all-time high.

So you do have stocks kind of celebrating what seems to

be a pretty promising situation in regards to the Middle East stuff coming to a close.

However, I just want to issue a bit of a word of caution.

We don't have anything in set in stone just yet.

We are hopeful.

Things look promising.

But please be careful in thinking that,

you know, if something doesn't go perfectly correctly here,

you could very quickly see a very sharp drop off in stocks.

And there are still, I'm not sure if you guys are watching the headlines like I am here,

but the headlines are still scattered with back and forth,

you know, what are we going to do with the uranium enrichment program and all that stuff in Iran?

And also, you know, what's the deal with the straight-up hormones?

Like, we are still getting conflicting back and forth headlines on what the deal actually is going to be.

And the reason I bring that up is that if that continues and there is a contention point,

follow-through could actually take place.

Like, you could get a falling out of the conversation, the negotiations.

And so I would not say,

for example, that I don't think that's very likely.

It's probably going to be the case that you're going to get some de-escalation.

However, I'm just pointing out that if you do not,

be prepared that oil could very sharply move in the opposite direction.

And I say that specifically while pulling up the oil chart,

because notice how oil is coming right back in here,

guys, to the spot that previously bulls had held several times before this,

where we had the de-escalation rumor coming down the pipeline.

So let me just remind you,

this is not the first time we've heard,

you know, ceasefire, things are going to end,

you know, probably this week or next week,

like we have heard that story a couple different times.

And so I'm pointing out that each time oil back down to around $89, $90 a barrel,

and then found buyers that stepped in and pushed it once more as deescalation hopes were kind of dashed.

So I'm just pointing out that I think that when you're looking at this dynamic right now,

if you are already, you know,

short oil, if you are already long,

you know, gold or long stocks,

and you're benefiting from this, then that's fantastic.

But I think there is a lot of risk here in chasing the short side of oil,

or chasing the long side in stocks.

That's my personal opinion on it.

Because again, a lot of times by the time the headlines hit,

a lot of the juices already been has already been squeezed from the from the trade,

if you will, the Nasdaq looks phenomenal from a technical basis,

if we're just taking a look at the daily timeframe,

huge level of, you know,

well, I should say this.

We barely really even tested any major levels of support,

but found one very, very quickly with just three days down and then rocketed right back to new fresh highs.

So this is a tape that I think is very hard to fight.

I'm not a fan of trying to do so.

And when we look at the S&P,

the NASDAQ, et cetera, these are just the clearest uptrends that you could possibly find.

It doesn't necessarily guarantee that they'll continue.

And I've said on the channel for a while,

and I still kind of stand by this.

I think you're probably due for some corrections,

either in time, meaning we go sideways,

or a pullback to some longer term levels of support.

It's been quite a while since we've retested the 50-day moving average,

the 100 or the 200-day moving average.

Not perhaps, I guess, record setting in the sense of how long we've gone on,

but I do think we are probably more likely than not to get some kind of,

you know, now that we have the good news and a lot of the big earnings season stuff is behind us,

we very well could see stock kind of just consolidate or correct sideways in time.

I think that's probably the most likely scenario is

that you maybe go into a bit of a range

and we trade sideways for a couple months as we go into midterm election stuff.

So we'll keep an eye on that.

If we're taking a look at the dollar index,

obviously dollar index taking a little bit of a hit here in regards to the geopolitics stuff.

On Friday, we had already been sort of capping out those gains here as you approach the 99.4 level.

So we are now just back into this consolidation zone here.

I think that if you're a bear on the dollar,

you're looking for more of a decisive break below this area here that we've been watching.

So keep an eye on that.

We'll see if it does want to play out to the downside here.

For the dollar index, I am actually leaning still more on the bullish side of things.

And I'll defend my case here a little bit on that.

Now, if I just pull up the US dollar here within the edge finder,

what we have is a pretty overall strong score.

We have a plus five reading.

Technicals are still mostly positive as you have had a four hour and upward trend,

sorry, four hour and daily chart upward trend.

Seasonals are still strong here for this portion of the year,

looking specifically at May.

100

And so when we look at the jobs market bias being positive,

101

the inflation bias still sticky.

102

Again, this is kind of up in the air as we go forward in the next few months.

103

If you get a de-escalation,

104

if you get an end to the war,

105

then inflation may start to cool off.

106

But please remember, guys, that even with the hopes and excitement around de-escalation right now,

107

let's still acknowledge that oil is still,

108

as I'm speaking at least, sitting at $90 a barrel.

109

We've been there for a couple months.

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That is going to embed itself in higher prices.

111

And so I do think that inflation can stay sticky,

112

even with the war slowing down.

113

That being said, if you do get a complete end to the war,

114

oil may finally break out of this consolidation.

115

And with that, I do think

116

that drags the dollar down with the idea of cooling inflation means the Fed may not need to cut rates as much.

117

So I'm sorry, may not need to hike rates or hold rates high.

118

If inflation can start to come down,

119

the dollar may start to see some weakness as the Fed may pivot more back in the direction of rate cuts,

120

especially depending on what happens with the jobs market.

121

That being said, our software here,

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the Edgefinder, is of course monitoring a ton of economic,

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technical, institutional activity, all sorts of different tools or metrics,

124

and building a scorecard report.

125

That is what we specialize here with Edgefinder.

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It's a software that scans a bunch of data and generally produces a bias for you on your favorite symbols and charts.

127

And right now, I do have a preference on the dollar of remaining long.

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However, what I'd be specifically looking for to really rejuvenate

129

that bullishness would be probably some kind of geopolitical headline

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that things are not going to go down easy in the Middle East.

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And if that is the case,

132

if we can break back above this 99.4 level,

133

I do think we could surprise the bears and actually make that move up to 100.2.

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That being said, I am,

135

of course, mindful of latest economic data.

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And if something changes in the inflation report or the jobs report,

137

if we get some weak jobs data in coming weeks,

138

then I will shift my tone to be more neutral or even possibly bearish in the dollar.

139

I am agnostic to what prices do.

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I'm trying to just follow trends that I'm seeing from a technical sentiment and macro fundamentals perspective.

141

And having a tool like Edgefinder helps me to do that the best I can.

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By the way, we are doing our Memorial Day sale right now.

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Today is Memorial Day.

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If you notice the US traders away from the desk,

145

a lot of people are,

146

you know, kind of taking the day off and chilling out.

147

So if you're interested in getting access to Edgefinder,

148

by the way, for the Memorial Day discount,

149

we are doing 35% off using the link and promo code found in the description down below on this video.

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So if you've thought about getting a copy for a while,

151

then take advantage of this deal that we are running.

152

I do also want to continue to be transparent and letting you guys know if you've watched the channel for a while,

153

we are raising prices on the edge finder this year,

154

we are planning to do that in the next few weeks.

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We have not done that in a long time.

156

We've added a lot of tools,

157

features, and overall overhead cost to our business and the price of the product is going up.

158

So I'm telling you that now transparently.

159

So if you've thought about getting a copy of edge finder,

160

do it before the sale price ends and the price of the tool actually goes up.

161

Um, so just being fully transparent about that coming down the pipeline,

162

because I do not want to sticker shock people who watch the channel every day who had been saving up

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or thinking about getting a copy.

164

If you need to set up a payment plan.

165

You can comment to us on our website.

166

If you head over to our website,

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a1trading.com, you can speak directly to us on the contact page

168

or click the link in the description down below to speak

169

directly to a member of our support staff about setting up a payment plan,

170

etc., whatever you need.

171

Take a look at gold.

172

So is gold bullish now?

173

That's the question.

174

Well, for me with gold,

175

the answer is still very neutral because I'm not super convinced with inflation story still being troublesome,

176

I actually lean more in the direction of looking to short gold on a rally.

177

And I know that sounds very counterintuitive or countertrend to the geopolitical headlines.

178

But again, I'm not necessarily willing to say like,

179

oh, I think the fallout in the Middle East is going to pick up again.

180

Like, that's not really what I'm trying to bet.

181

I'm just pointing out that I think that,

182

you know, if everyone's kind of rushing to,

183

hey, everything is all good now,

184

but we haven't signed anything hardcore in regards to US,

185

Iran, et cetera, I still think that the risk reward to a short trade on gold may actually make sense still.

186

So if I'm taking a look here at the daily timeframe,

187

right, you kind of have this spot that we are chasing around.

188

I think it's actually easier to see on the four hours.

189

So let's drop down to the four hour chart.

190

We are testing this level of resistance from last week.

191

We've left a gap unopened or unclosed here.

192

So I think

193

that there may actually be the opportunity to look at gold at some of these critical levels and generally lean more bullish,

194

I'm sorry, more bearish as I do have a bullish outlook on the dollar.

195

I think if you're watching gold here from a bullish perspective,

196

you probably want to see the opposite of what I'm saying.

197

You want to see these levels get broken.

198

You want to see buyers stepping in on retests.

199

And if that takes place,

200

then I will certainly change my tone on gold because again,

201

I'm agnostic to what price actually ends up doing.

202

I'm trying to make educated guesses on what I see in the macro,

203

in the technicals, et cetera.

204

So I do have a gold bearish leaning tone there.

205

We also saw institutions actually do some latest COT selling.

206

So we saw some bearish activity in gold.

207

And we have the crowd bullish on gold.

208

Let me show you this.

209

So if I go over to my crowd sentiment tools and we look specifically at gold here for a second,

210

We can pull this up and you can see crowd sentiment went really bullish on gold here on Friday.

211

So the put call ratio,

212

it looks at call volume versus put volume.

213

And when it goes really low,

214

it's showing a lot of people buying GLD calls, right?

215

And vice versa.

216

If this thing goes really high,

217

then people are buying puts on GLD,

218

which is a gold ETF that is very popularly traded and a lot of options flow on it.

219

So we're tracking that data to see where sentiment is at.

220

And

221

so what I find interesting here is you are seeing a

222

lot of bullish volume coming in on the options exchange for GLD.

223

So that is giving us the contrarian bearish signal.

224

What do I mean by that?

225

Well, when this shows a lot of bulls,

226

our software picks this up as a bearish signal, not a bullish one.

227

So when crowd chases one side of the trade,

228

the edge finder kind of factors that into its scoring as the opposite signal, right?

229

So sentiment here getting a bearish reading because the crowd sentiment went bullish.

230

I hope that makes sense.

231

We use sentiment primarily in terms of,

232

you know, crowd sentiment as more of a contrarian indicator.

233

And we sort of more follow in line with what institutions

234

are doing on the commitment of traders as they are the quote unquote smart money with all the money.

235

So we track both and our software is tuned in to auto score these things for you,

236

the trader using the software.

237

So, you know, someone said in my videos on Sunday,

238

they said, Nick, you can't go 30 seconds without mentioning the edge finder.

239

And this is one big sales promo.

240

And to be completely fair, you are correct.

241

Like I use my edge finder.

242

I'm sorry.

243

I'm using the YouTube channel to promote the product that we have invested transparently,

244

like hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars into building this tool.

245

Easily over a million dollars invested in building this thing.

246

We have thousands of traders around the world using our products.

247

And we have a team of real people.

248

There's like 10 plus people at A1 Trading behind the scenes working on this product

249

and making it a game changer for the retail trading community.

250

So yes, I'm going to talk about it,

251

but I'm also going to talk about it not just because I'm selling something I don't believe in,

252

but because I genuinely use it in my own trading analysis,

253

which I hope is clear by now if you watch my videos every day.

254

Yes, I am plugging a tool that I'm trying to sell you,

255

but I'm also plugging a tool that I genuinely use

256

and back with my real broker results that I post on my YouTube channel to show that I'm not just,

257

you know, blowing smoke and making things up.

258

I genuinely use this thing,

259

and I hope that you can see that in my videos.

260

And I also hope that by seeing it in my videos,

261

if you choose to purchase a copy,

262

you get a better idea of what you might expect,

263

not some kind of holy grail crystal ball thing,

264

but rather how actually to analyze markets with a software like Edgefinder.

265

Anyways, pushing on here, I do have generally a bearish bias on gold.

266

I also have a bearish bias on bonds.

267

And I've talked about this a lot on the channel.

268

Let's pull this up.

269

And bonds might actually be giving a bit of an entry here as we go into the trading day tomorrow.

270

I am looking at a possible re-entry on my short bonds position alongside my short gold idea

271

that I may take advantage of as well.

272

And if I do that,

273

by the way, I'll share inside of our Discord channel.

274

I'm still looking at it and kind of semi still on vacation for the weekend.

275

Just getting back to the desk here this afternoon.

276

I've been away hanging out with family.

277

We played a lot of board games and all sorts of stuff.

278

So I am taking a little time away.

279

Anyways, I'm back.

280

So US Treasuries, I am looking at this from a perspective of thinking yields could continue higher.

281

That would make us more in the camp of looking at bearish setups on bonds.

282

We are retesting some big levels on ZN.

283

Of course, this is the 10-year treasury T-note futures.

284

So we're seeing a rally in this.

285

Of course, this moves inversely to the bond yield.

286

So as bond yields have been pulling back,

287

I've been looking at this out of the gate here this

288

week as an opportunity to potentially pick up a short bonds play again,

289

as well as a short gold play, long dollar play.

290

That is going to be my buys going into this week.

291

I could be dead wrong in thinking this, right?

292

But my system leans this direction with upticks and inflation.

293

And that is the way I'm going to be trading this week.

294

We'll see if that is the right call or not.

295

If I take those trades,

296

like I said, all of the info,

297

entry, exit analysis, et cetera,

298

will be shared inside of our discord.

299

And because I mentioned it,

300

this is what it kind of looks like.

301

So I'm sharing all of the trades that I'm taking.

302

I trade forex pairs, commodities,

303

indices, and I share a journal of all of my updates on what I'm doing in markets.

304

So if you're interested in seeing these trades,

305

this also is 30% off.

306

Today is the last day we're going to be ending our Memorial Day sales.

307

So take advantage of the discounts available in the description down below.

308

And if you're looking to get funded,

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then consider checking out today's video sponsor, DNA Funded.

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DNA Funded offers high profit splits on all of their different challenges.

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They also offer a single phase,

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a two phase, and an instant funding challenge opportunity on their website.

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They allow you to trade over 800 different instruments through their CFD products.

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They have low trading costs or low costs to purchasing the challenges.

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And you get an extra discount with promo code A1T20 at checkout.

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That is 20% off with our code, Full Transparency.

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That is a disclaimer or a referral code.

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So you are helping out the channel if you choose to use it.

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And please also make sure to do your own due diligence

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on DNA Funded before you consider trading with them to make sure

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that they are the right prop firm for your style of trading and meet your risk criteria.

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Thank you so much for watching today's video.

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Have a great trading week ahead.

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Bu dersin kelimeleri ve konuşma notları

Bu videoda gölgeleme çalışması için 323 cümle ve 3364 kelime var. Konuşma bölümü 16:16 sürüyor. Konuşmacı hızlı konuşuyor, dakikada yaklaşık 207 kelime; bu yüzden birbirine bağlanan ve zayıflayan sesler duyacaksınız. Kelimelerin %83’i İngilizcede en sık kullanılan 3.000 kelime arasında; geri kalanına başlamadan önce bakmakta fayda var.

Bu videodaki önemli kelimeler

Videodan öğrenmeye değer 15 kelime, telaffuzu ve anlamıyla:

Kelime	Telaffuz	Anlam
inflation isim	/ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/	enflasyon
headline isim	/ˈhɛd.laɪn/	başlık, manşet
bias isim	/ˈbaɪ.əs/	yanlılık, ön yargı
chase fiil	/t͡ʃeɪs/	kovalamak, peşinden koşmak
trader isim	/ˈtɹeɪdɚ/	tüccar, tacir
tone isim	/ˈtəʊn/	ton
discount isim	/ˈdɪskaʊnt/	indirim, iskonto
barrel isim	/ˈbæɹəl/	varil
yield fiil	/jiːld/	ürün vermek
desk isim	/dɛsk/	masa, sıra
rally isim	/ˈɹæli/	miting, gösteri
neutral sıfat	/ˈnuː.tɹəl/	nötr, yansız
plug isim	/plʌɡ/	fiş
pipeline isim	/ˈpaɪpˌlaɪn/	boru hattı
buyer isim	/ˈbaɪ.əɹ/	alıcı, müşteri

Duyacağınız deyimsel fiiller

Kelime	Anlam
come down fiil	düşmek
check out fiil	gözden geçirmek
save up fiil	para biriktirmek
slow down fiil	yavaşlamak

Bu videodaki dil bilgisi

Konuşmacının en çok kullandığı yapılar, videodaki sözcüklerin aynısıyla:

Yapı	Videoda
Present perfect continuous have/has been + -ing — önceden başlayıp hâlâ süren bir eylem	we've been watching · have been pulling · I've been looking
Present perfect have/has + fiilin üçüncü hâli — geçmişte olan ama şimdi de önemli olan bir eylem	we've heard · have heard · has already been squeezed
Edilgen yapı be + fiilin üçüncü hâli — kimin yaptığı değil, ne olduğu önemli	are still scattered · be prepared · been squeezed
İlgi cümlecikleri who / which + cümle — bir kişi ya da şey hakkında ek bilgi	market, which is · people who watch

Dikkat edilecek telaffuzlar

Konuşmacı I'm, you're, we've gibi kısaltılmış biçimleri 77 kez kullanıyor. Bunları duyduğunuz gibi kısa söyleyin.

“sh” ve “zh” sesleri: inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, consolidation /kənˌsɑləˈdeɪʃən/, rush /ɹʌʃ/, sharp /ʃɑɹp/, shock /ʃɔk/
Uzun kelimeler — vurguyu doğru yere koyun: genuinely /ˈd͡ʒɛn.ju.ɪn.li/, necessarily /ˌnɛs.əˈsɛɹ.ə.li/, consolidation /kənˌsɑləˈdeɪʃən/, primarily /ˈpɹaɪ.mə.ɹə.li/, potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/

Bu videoyla nasıl çalışılır

Videonun tamamını konuşmadan bir kez dinleyin ve bilmediğiniz kelimeleri not edin.
0,75× hızla başlayın, cümle cümle tekrar edin ve kolaylaşınca normal hıza dönün.
Kendinizi kaydedin ve orijinaliyle karşılaştırın; inflation, headline, bias gibi kelimelere özellikle dikkat edin.

Gölgeleme Tekniği Nedir?

Gölgeleme, başlangıçta profesyonel tercüman eğitimi için geliştirilen ve çok dilli Dr. Alexander Arguelles tarafından popüler hale getirilen, bilim destekli bir dil öğrenme tekniğidir. Yöntem basit ama güçlüdür: ana dili İngilizce olan bir sesi dinler ve hemen yüksek sesle tekrar edersiniz — konuşmacıyı 1-2 saniye gecikmeyle takip eden bir gölge gibi. Pasif dinleme veya dilbilgisi alıştırmalarının aksine, gölgeleme beyninizi ve ağız kaslarınızı gerçek konuşma kalıplarını eşzamanlı olarak işlemeye ve yeniden üretmeye zorlar. Araştırmalar, telaffuz doğruluğu, tonlama, ritim, bağlı konuşma, dinleme anlama ve konuşma akıcılığını önemli ölçüde geliştirdiğini göstermektedir — bu da onu IELTS Konuşma hazırlığı ve gerçek dünya İngilizce iletişimi için en etkili yöntemlerden biri yapar.

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Bu dersin kelimeleri ve konuşma notları

Bu videodaki önemli kelimeler

Duyacağınız deyimsel fiiller

Bu videodaki dil bilgisi

Dikkat edilecek telaffuzlar

Bu videoyla nasıl çalışılır

Gölgeleme Tekniği Nedir?