Практика Shadowing: I'm Shorting. - Изучайте разговорный английский с YouTube

Over the weekend, we had a lot more headlines

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Over the weekend, we had a lot more headlines

that seemed to be promising an end to the Strait of Hormuz debacle and the Iran,

Israel, and U.S war.

The question is, is that going to happen?

And if so, is oil headed back down to $60 a barrel?

Are gas prices finally going to give consumers a little bit of a relief?

Well, we'll talk about a little bit of that here in today's video.

But more importantly, what this could mean for markets specifically like gold,

silver, the stock market, which is up a lot here today,

but perhaps not as much as you might expect.

We are up 1% on the S&P 500,

1.47% here on the NASDAQ,

the Dow Jones flying back to a fresh all-time high.

So you do have stocks kind of celebrating what seems to

be a pretty promising situation in regards to the Middle East stuff coming to a close.

However, I just want to issue a bit of a word of caution.

We don't have anything in set in stone just yet.

We are hopeful.

Things look promising.

But please be careful in thinking that,

you know, if something doesn't go perfectly correctly here,

you could very quickly see a very sharp drop off in stocks.

And there are still, I'm not sure if you guys are watching the headlines like I am here,

but the headlines are still scattered with back and forth,

you know, what are we going to do with the uranium enrichment program and all that stuff in Iran?

And also, you know, what's the deal with the straight-up hormones?

Like, we are still getting conflicting back and forth headlines on what the deal actually is going to be.

And the reason I bring that up is that if that continues and there is a contention point,

follow-through could actually take place.

Like, you could get a falling out of the conversation, the negotiations.

And so I would not say,

for example, that I don't think that's very likely.

It's probably going to be the case that you're going to get some de-escalation.

However, I'm just pointing out that if you do not,

be prepared that oil could very sharply move in the opposite direction.

And I say that specifically while pulling up the oil chart,

because notice how oil is coming right back in here,

guys, to the spot that previously bulls had held several times before this,

where we had the de-escalation rumor coming down the pipeline.

So let me just remind you,

this is not the first time we've heard,

you know, ceasefire, things are going to end,

you know, probably this week or next week,

like we have heard that story a couple different times.

And so I'm pointing out that each time oil back down to around $89, $90 a barrel,

and then found buyers that stepped in and pushed it once more as deescalation hopes were kind of dashed.

So I'm just pointing out that I think that when you're looking at this dynamic right now,

if you are already, you know,

short oil, if you are already long,

you know, gold or long stocks,

and you're benefiting from this, then that's fantastic.

But I think there is a lot of risk here in chasing the short side of oil,

or chasing the long side in stocks.

That's my personal opinion on it.

Because again, a lot of times by the time the headlines hit,

a lot of the juices already been has already been squeezed from the from the trade,

if you will, the Nasdaq looks phenomenal from a technical basis,

if we're just taking a look at the daily timeframe,

huge level of, you know,

well, I should say this.

We barely really even tested any major levels of support,

but found one very, very quickly with just three days down and then rocketed right back to new fresh highs.

So this is a tape that I think is very hard to fight.

I'm not a fan of trying to do so.

And when we look at the S&P,

the NASDAQ, et cetera, these are just the clearest uptrends that you could possibly find.

It doesn't necessarily guarantee that they'll continue.

And I've said on the channel for a while,

and I still kind of stand by this.

I think you're probably due for some corrections,

either in time, meaning we go sideways,

or a pullback to some longer term levels of support.

It's been quite a while since we've retested the 50-day moving average,

the 100 or the 200-day moving average.

Not perhaps, I guess, record setting in the sense of how long we've gone on,

but I do think we are probably more likely than not to get some kind of,

you know, now that we have the good news and a lot of the big earnings season stuff is behind us,

we very well could see stock kind of just consolidate or correct sideways in time.

I think that's probably the most likely scenario is

that you maybe go into a bit of a range

and we trade sideways for a couple months as we go into midterm election stuff.

So we'll keep an eye on that.

If we're taking a look at the dollar index,

obviously dollar index taking a little bit of a hit here in regards to the geopolitics stuff.

On Friday, we had already been sort of capping out those gains here as you approach the 99.4 level.

So we are now just back into this consolidation zone here.

I think that if you're a bear on the dollar,

you're looking for more of a decisive break below this area here that we've been watching.

So keep an eye on that.

We'll see if it does want to play out to the downside here.

For the dollar index, I am actually leaning still more on the bullish side of things.

And I'll defend my case here a little bit on that.

Now, if I just pull up the US dollar here within the edge finder,

what we have is a pretty overall strong score.

We have a plus five reading.

Technicals are still mostly positive as you have had a four hour and upward trend,

sorry, four hour and daily chart upward trend.

Seasonals are still strong here for this portion of the year,

looking specifically at May.

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And so when we look at the jobs market bias being positive,

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the inflation bias still sticky.

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Again, this is kind of up in the air as we go forward in the next few months.

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If you get a de-escalation,

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if you get an end to the war,

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then inflation may start to cool off.

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But please remember, guys, that even with the hopes and excitement around de-escalation right now,

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let's still acknowledge that oil is still,

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as I'm speaking at least, sitting at $90 a barrel.

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We've been there for a couple months.

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That is going to embed itself in higher prices.

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And so I do think that inflation can stay sticky,

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even with the war slowing down.

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That being said, if you do get a complete end to the war,

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oil may finally break out of this consolidation.

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And with that, I do think

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that drags the dollar down with the idea of cooling inflation means the Fed may not need to cut rates as much.

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So I'm sorry, may not need to hike rates or hold rates high.

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If inflation can start to come down,

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the dollar may start to see some weakness as the Fed may pivot more back in the direction of rate cuts,

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especially depending on what happens with the jobs market.

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That being said, our software here,

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the Edgefinder, is of course monitoring a ton of economic,

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technical, institutional activity, all sorts of different tools or metrics,

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and building a scorecard report.

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That is what we specialize here with Edgefinder.

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It's a software that scans a bunch of data and generally produces a bias for you on your favorite symbols and charts.

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And right now, I do have a preference on the dollar of remaining long.

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However, what I'd be specifically looking for to really rejuvenate

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that bullishness would be probably some kind of geopolitical headline

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that things are not going to go down easy in the Middle East.

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And if that is the case,

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if we can break back above this 99.4 level,

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I do think we could surprise the bears and actually make that move up to 100.2.

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That being said, I am,

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of course, mindful of latest economic data.

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And if something changes in the inflation report or the jobs report,

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if we get some weak jobs data in coming weeks,

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then I will shift my tone to be more neutral or even possibly bearish in the dollar.

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I am agnostic to what prices do.

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I'm trying to just follow trends that I'm seeing from a technical sentiment and macro fundamentals perspective.

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And having a tool like Edgefinder helps me to do that the best I can.

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By the way, we are doing our Memorial Day sale right now.

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Today is Memorial Day.

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If you notice the US traders away from the desk,

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a lot of people are,

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you know, kind of taking the day off and chilling out.

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So if you're interested in getting access to Edgefinder,

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by the way, for the Memorial Day discount,

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we are doing 35% off using the link and promo code found in the description down below on this video.

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So if you've thought about getting a copy for a while,

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then take advantage of this deal that we are running.

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I do also want to continue to be transparent and letting you guys know if you've watched the channel for a while,

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we are raising prices on the edge finder this year,

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we are planning to do that in the next few weeks.

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We have not done that in a long time.

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We've added a lot of tools,

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features, and overall overhead cost to our business and the price of the product is going up.

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So I'm telling you that now transparently.

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So if you've thought about getting a copy of edge finder,

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do it before the sale price ends and the price of the tool actually goes up.

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Um, so just being fully transparent about that coming down the pipeline,

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because I do not want to sticker shock people who watch the channel every day who had been saving up

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or thinking about getting a copy.

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If you need to set up a payment plan.

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You can comment to us on our website.

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If you head over to our website,

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a1trading.com, you can speak directly to us on the contact page

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or click the link in the description down below to speak

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directly to a member of our support staff about setting up a payment plan,

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etc., whatever you need.

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Take a look at gold.

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So is gold bullish now?

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That's the question.

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Well, for me with gold,

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the answer is still very neutral because I'm not super convinced with inflation story still being troublesome,

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I actually lean more in the direction of looking to short gold on a rally.

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And I know that sounds very counterintuitive or countertrend to the geopolitical headlines.

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But again, I'm not necessarily willing to say like,

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oh, I think the fallout in the Middle East is going to pick up again.

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Like, that's not really what I'm trying to bet.

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I'm just pointing out that I think that,

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you know, if everyone's kind of rushing to,

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hey, everything is all good now,

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but we haven't signed anything hardcore in regards to US,

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Iran, et cetera, I still think that the risk reward to a short trade on gold may actually make sense still.

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So if I'm taking a look here at the daily timeframe,

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right, you kind of have this spot that we are chasing around.

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I think it's actually easier to see on the four hours.

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So let's drop down to the four hour chart.

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We are testing this level of resistance from last week.

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We've left a gap unopened or unclosed here.

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So I think

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that there may actually be the opportunity to look at gold at some of these critical levels and generally lean more bullish,

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I'm sorry, more bearish as I do have a bullish outlook on the dollar.

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I think if you're watching gold here from a bullish perspective,

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you probably want to see the opposite of what I'm saying.

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You want to see these levels get broken.

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You want to see buyers stepping in on retests.

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And if that takes place,

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then I will certainly change my tone on gold because again,

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I'm agnostic to what price actually ends up doing.

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I'm trying to make educated guesses on what I see in the macro,

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in the technicals, et cetera.

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So I do have a gold bearish leaning tone there.

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We also saw institutions actually do some latest COT selling.

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So we saw some bearish activity in gold.

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And we have the crowd bullish on gold.

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Let me show you this.

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So if I go over to my crowd sentiment tools and we look specifically at gold here for a second,

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We can pull this up and you can see crowd sentiment went really bullish on gold here on Friday.

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So the put call ratio,

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it looks at call volume versus put volume.

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And when it goes really low,

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it's showing a lot of people buying GLD calls, right?

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And vice versa.

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If this thing goes really high,

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then people are buying puts on GLD,

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which is a gold ETF that is very popularly traded and a lot of options flow on it.

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So we're tracking that data to see where sentiment is at.

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And

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so what I find interesting here is you are seeing a

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lot of bullish volume coming in on the options exchange for GLD.

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So that is giving us the contrarian bearish signal.

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What do I mean by that?

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Well, when this shows a lot of bulls,

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our software picks this up as a bearish signal, not a bullish one.

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So when crowd chases one side of the trade,

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the edge finder kind of factors that into its scoring as the opposite signal, right?

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So sentiment here getting a bearish reading because the crowd sentiment went bullish.

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I hope that makes sense.

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We use sentiment primarily in terms of,

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you know, crowd sentiment as more of a contrarian indicator.

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And we sort of more follow in line with what institutions

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are doing on the commitment of traders as they are the quote unquote smart money with all the money.

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So we track both and our software is tuned in to auto score these things for you,

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the trader using the software.

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So, you know, someone said in my videos on Sunday,

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they said, Nick, you can't go 30 seconds without mentioning the edge finder.

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And this is one big sales promo.

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And to be completely fair, you are correct.

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Like I use my edge finder.

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I'm sorry.

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I'm using the YouTube channel to promote the product that we have invested transparently,

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like hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars into building this tool.

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Easily over a million dollars invested in building this thing.

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We have thousands of traders around the world using our products.

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And we have a team of real people.

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There's like 10 plus people at A1 Trading behind the scenes working on this product

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and making it a game changer for the retail trading community.

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So yes, I'm going to talk about it,

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but I'm also going to talk about it not just because I'm selling something I don't believe in,

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but because I genuinely use it in my own trading analysis,

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which I hope is clear by now if you watch my videos every day.

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Yes, I am plugging a tool that I'm trying to sell you,

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but I'm also plugging a tool that I genuinely use

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and back with my real broker results that I post on my YouTube channel to show that I'm not just,

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you know, blowing smoke and making things up.

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I genuinely use this thing,

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and I hope that you can see that in my videos.

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And I also hope that by seeing it in my videos,

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if you choose to purchase a copy,

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you get a better idea of what you might expect,

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not some kind of holy grail crystal ball thing,

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but rather how actually to analyze markets with a software like Edgefinder.

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Anyways, pushing on here, I do have generally a bearish bias on gold.

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I also have a bearish bias on bonds.

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And I've talked about this a lot on the channel.

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Let's pull this up.

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And bonds might actually be giving a bit of an entry here as we go into the trading day tomorrow.

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I am looking at a possible re-entry on my short bonds position alongside my short gold idea

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that I may take advantage of as well.

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And if I do that,

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by the way, I'll share inside of our Discord channel.

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I'm still looking at it and kind of semi still on vacation for the weekend.

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Just getting back to the desk here this afternoon.

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I've been away hanging out with family.

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We played a lot of board games and all sorts of stuff.

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So I am taking a little time away.

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Anyways, I'm back.

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So US Treasuries, I am looking at this from a perspective of thinking yields could continue higher.

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That would make us more in the camp of looking at bearish setups on bonds.

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We are retesting some big levels on ZN.

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Of course, this is the 10-year treasury T-note futures.

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So we're seeing a rally in this.

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Of course, this moves inversely to the bond yield.

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So as bond yields have been pulling back,

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I've been looking at this out of the gate here this

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week as an opportunity to potentially pick up a short bonds play again,

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as well as a short gold play, long dollar play.

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That is going to be my buys going into this week.

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I could be dead wrong in thinking this, right?

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But my system leans this direction with upticks and inflation.

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And that is the way I'm going to be trading this week.

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We'll see if that is the right call or not.

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If I take those trades,

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like I said, all of the info,

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entry, exit analysis, et cetera,

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will be shared inside of our discord.

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And because I mentioned it,

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this is what it kind of looks like.

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So I'm sharing all of the trades that I'm taking.

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I trade forex pairs, commodities,

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indices, and I share a journal of all of my updates on what I'm doing in markets.

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So if you're interested in seeing these trades,

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this also is 30% off.

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Today is the last day we're going to be ending our Memorial Day sales.

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Thank you so much for watching today's video.

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Have a great trading week ahead.

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