Практика Shadowing: The oil apocalypse is here - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео
Создание урока...
1
Do you remember that oil shock we warned you about a few months ago?
2
Well, it is here.
3
Gas prices rapidly approaching their highest point since the start of the Iran war.
4
Record high gas prices.
5
Gas prices have never been higher.
6
Pump prices are sky high all over.
7
Here's a gas station in Texas that ran out.
8
Here's another.
9
One in Michigan.
10
Here's a trucker who spent a thousand dollars filling one tank.
11
Oh my god!
12
This Simpsons joke is getting closer and closer.
13
Woohoo!
14
Free gas!
15
By the way, this was posted by an Iranian political leader.
16
It's a nice bit of trolling.
17
But I have to be honest, this oil shock, it is different from the one that we warned you about.
18
Because it's actually, and I can hardly believe this, three oil shocks hitting at once.
19
One is from the Iran war, another from Russia's war with Ukraine, and a third from this war Saudi Arabia is fighting against a bunch of guys in sandals in the desert.
20
And it's actually kind of four oil shocks
21
if you count this whole other thing
22
that i am just going to come back to has to do with really big boats
23
and these are all converging at once and they're converging on something
24
that honestly is much bigger than gas shortages
25
or gas prices gas shortages are really kind of a tiny
26
little distraction like they're a blip compared to the much scarier
27
much more dangerous form this thing is taking it's a kind of devastation
28
that affects truly every person on earth whether you use a car
29
or not and it's not hypothetical it's not something that's over the horizon.
30
It is here right now, upending your world in ways that might not be initially apparent, but once you know how to see it, you will realize are absolutely everywhere.
31
So let's get into it.
32
All right.
33
What did you think I was not going to use the board for this one?
34
Quick refresher.
35
This is the world oil economy.
36
It's all one unified global market, which means all the world's producers sell into the same big supply, which all the world's consumers buy from.
37
Any given day, there are about 100 million barrels produced and 100 million barrels consumed.
38
There's zero slack.
39
Every drop gets used.
40
So any disruption affects everyone.
41
If you watched our other videos, you know how the Iran war blew all this up.
42
And if you didn't, I'm going to try to TLDR you up to today in, personal challenge here, 60 seconds.
43
Tamal, go ahead and put the clock on the screen.
44
Tamal, go ahead and put the clock on the screen.
45
You guys ready?
46
Okay, go.
47
February 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu convinces Donald Trump to do regime change war on Iran.
48
It fails Iran blockades the Strait of Hormuz, depriving the world of the 20 million barrels of oil a day that went through it.
49
The world gets some relief by rerouting oil through these big pipelines
50
that avoid Hormuz go around it and
51
that adds back seven million more bells to the system
52
and then add on top of that emergency oil stockpiles
53
that add back another two
54
and a half million barrels china magically cuts back its imports by five
55
and a half million barrels a day save the world thank you china so all together,
56
which comes out to a 5 million barrel a day shortfall in the world's oil needs.
57
Which brings us up to like September 1st. Okay, stop the clock.
58
Do we make it?
59
Still got it.
60
Okay, so all of this is not great.
61
You probably noticed it making your power bill more expensive, flights getting canceled, price of gas, but it's not like post -apocalyptic dystopia.
62
It's bearable.
63
But then, mid -September, a few really big things happened and upended all of this.
64
And you know what?
65
It's easier if I flip this around and show you on the map.
66
Okay, so this obviously is Canada.
67
No, I'm just kidding.
68
It's the oil -producing Middle East.
69
And all of this makes more sense if I show you where the oil is.
70
It's really clustered right around here.
71
And remember that everything in this region is worth 20 million barrels a day.
72
So when you see where the oil is clustered, you can see why it makes sense that it normally travels through here, the Strait of Hormuz.
73
Actually, let me map this out too.
74
It's easier to see.
75
Mostly this goes to Asia.
76
Or it goes up through here, up the Red Sea, through the Suez Canal to Europe.
77
or it used to until Iran closes it.
78
And that closure, of course, leads to minus 20 million barrels from the world energy economy.
79
So it looked like disaster until the UAE here opened up the dial on its 300 -mile crude oil pipeline,
80
which I'm going to map out now.
81
That's the pipeline.
82
And it pops out here, just past Aran's blockade.
83
Here's what it looks like.
84
And that pipeline is shipping one and a half million barrels a day.
85
Not bad.
86
And then Saudi Arabia cranks up the mother of all oil pipelines, the East -West Pipeline.
87
There she is.
88
Runs east to west, and that's why it's called the East -West Pipeline.
89
And that pipeline carries a kind of amazing five and a half million barrels of oil a day across 750 miles, mostly of desert.
90
And it empties out here in the Red Sea, where it goes up to Suez to Europe.
91
Let's map that out.
92
And it also goes down here through the Red Sea out to Asia.
93
And this all got opened up even more around July, when the world finally figured out how to get a little bit of oil out of Hormuz.
94
Let me explain.
95
This is, I swear to you, a real training video for cargo ship captains explaining something called ship -to -ship transfer,
96
where in an emergency, one ship can offload its cargo to another without the use of a port.
97
Right now, the really big oil tankers that normally would have gone through Hormuz are instead anchoring out here,
98
where it's safe, and where they load oil using those ship -to -ship transfers
99
that little itty -bitty ships bring to them through Hormuz.
100
And those little ships shuttle back and forth on this sort of safe route right along Amang's coast.
101
And they can do this because being smaller makes it easier to avoid detection
102
and it makes the risk more palatable or manageable to ship owners.
103
They also turn off some equipment to be stealthier.
104
And this little game isn't enough to reopen Hormuz, but it does bring through about six and a half million barrels a day, depending on how good the Iranian Navy's eyesight is that day.
105
So, okay, six and a half million barrels, one and a half million barrels, seven and a half million barrels.
106
All of this together was bringing out about 13
107
and a half million barrels a day from the supposedly closed straight or foremost.
108
Honestly, that's pretty good.
109
That's two -thirds of the normal amount until these guys showed up.
110
Ansar Allah, or helpers of God, better known as the Houthis, for the al -Houthi family that leads them.
111
Who are the Houthis?
112
How do they fit into this?
113
TLDR, Yemen has been in a civil war for 12 years now.
114
Saudi Arabia intervened on one side, the Houthis are fighting on the other.
115
That has been going on for a very long time
116
and then all of a sudden in September the Houthis took a bunch of territory, Yemen all along the coast.
117
This is the Houthi territory and it includes this spot right here.
118
I know I covered it with tape but but it is the Strait of Bob al -Mandeb.
119
Here's what it looks like.
120
A really important choke point.
121
The Houthis are fighting Saudi Arabia and they are allied with Iran, so they closed this strait that had become basically the backup hormones.
122
And then they did something even bigger.
123
This is Saudi Arabia's main refinery at the end point of that big pipeline, knocked out by Houthi rockets so now we gotta x this out
124
so the refinery is out
125
but the pipeline was still running until some friendly Iran back
126
militias way up here in Iraq sent drones down to three
127
different points in the pipeline these huge structures called pumping stations
128
and turn them into this rubble here's a closer view one of the explosions was
129
so big you could see it from space so three big pumping stations down,
130
which means no more east -west pipeline, at least for now.
131
And the world down five and a half million barrels, including a lot of that oil that would have gone to Europe.
132
Okay, so east -west pipeline was the big one.
133
So without that, we're down to just this little UAE pipeline and this ship -to -ship game at the edge of foremost,
134
which means the whole region is down from 20 million barrels a day before the Iran war to now,
135
thanks to Iran, and especially thanks to the Houthis just wrecking Saudi Arabia,
136
we are down to 8 million barrels a day. That is bad.
137
That's not good.
138
And it actually gets even worse.
139
But actually, before we get into what happened, there's something I want to show you.
140
Hold on.
141
If you are in any way involved in running a business, you are going to want to hear about today's sponsor, Odoo.
142
the all -in -one management software.
143
This show is actually kind of a small business, so this speaks to me.
144
And it's easiest to explain if I show you life without Odoo versus life with Odoo.
145
Like, take the hassle of juggling a zillion apps, each with their own process and formats.
146
Well, Odoo puts all that, all those functions on the same platform.
147
So there's just one cozy ecosystem to build your business in.
148
And here's another problem with the zillion apps thing.
149
Every sale or operation has to get routed through the whole maze of them, which takes forever, takes up a bunch of everybody's time and energy.
150
But with Odoo, all of those apps and functions are natively integrated to carry tasks or sales across the ecosystem seamlessly.
151
Okay, last one, scaling.
152
And normally that means adding more external apps, which means rebuilding your process and starting all over again.
153
But with Odoo, when you scale, Odoo painlessly scales with you so you can focus on your business.
154
And if you're interested, you can book a free consultation or just dive in with a 15 -day free trial, no credit card required, by using the link in the description or the QR code.
155
So now I'm going to flip this back over and get us back to our story.
156
Okay, so you'll see that I went ahead and updated this, updated all the numbers with all the stuff that we just went over.
157
And it nets out down 4 million barrels a day.
158
Might have been survivable if not for one guy.
159
Someone we thought was a hero in the story, Xi Jinping.
160
Buddy, I thought we were pals.
161
But after a few months of going without oil so the rest of us could have enough, China seems to have decided, yeah, it's time for oil.
162
This chart shows two things.
163
The blue line here is the price of oil globally, and the red line is the price of oil specifically in China.
164
Technically, this actually shows these things called WTI crude futures and Shanghai crude futures, but unless you're watching this video on a Bloomberg terminal, it doesn't matter.
165
Don't worry about it.
166
Just wanted to clear that up for the nerds in the audience.
167
Most of the time, you can see these lines run in parallel.
168
China is buying oil at about the same price as everyone else.
169
Even during the first oil shock, it's pretty similar.
170
China's line is a little smoother because, remember, they're buying less oil, so they can afford to skip the crazy price surges.
171
But then, September 1st, something big changes.
172
China starts paying way, way more than everyone else for oil.
173
Look at that gap.
174
The rest of the world is paying about $105 a barrel, but China is paying $135.
175
And what's happening here is that China, after months of sitting out the global oil market, is going at an oil buying spree,
176
which means it's now cutting just two and a half million barrels a day from its normal imports, not five and a half like it was before.
177
Got my big marker.
178
That's still helpful to the world for sure, but it is a lot less helpful than what China was doing before
179
and it means that the global balance is now at net 7 million barrel a day shortfall in global oil supplies.
180
Why is China doing this?
181
As usual they're not saying but if I had to guess it's
182
because they know something a lot bigger
183
and a lot worse than a crude oil shortage like we
184
said at the top of this video is already starting to hit the world.
185
So now it's time I showed you what that is
186
which means we have to rearrange the board here a little bit
187
so yes you were reading this right everything
188
that we talked about up to this point is actually just
189
the first third of this it's the first of three interlocking crises
190
that are all hitting once right now
191
and the second huge global crisis is shipping just a baseline forever
192
and ever getting oil from the place it was pumped to
193
the place it's going to be consumed cost about three dollars a barrel.
194
And that is way cheaper than you would think, right?
195
Well, a lot goes into making that happen.
196
We talked in our first Oil Shock video about how oil travels on all these long overseas routes, and it's shipped in huge,
197
crazy huge boats that go literally the speed of a bicycle, Which means it's really, really important we have enough of these ships to keep the oil moving.
198
And as of last month, we do not.
199
We do not have enough ships anymore.
200
And there are a few reasons for that.
201
First off, Iran attacked a few to show it means business in closing Hormuz.
202
And the U .S in turn sunk a few Iranian tanks.
203
And a bunch of the tankers that are left are stuck, remember, anchored just outside Hormuz waiting to do those crazy ship -to -ship transfer maneuvers we talked about.
204
And you can file all of those disruptions, all of which make shipping scarcer under generalized danger in the Hormuz Strait.
205
But even that is nothing compared to what happened when these guys showed up and closed down the Bab al -Mandab Strait.
206
Let's actually flip this back really quickly so I can explain why that's such a problem.
207
so look here's why this is a big deal the only
208
way to reliably get oil out of the middle east
209
which what do you associate the middle east with with oil
210
is now to go up through here through the suez canal
211
and that's fine if it's going to europe
212
but look there is suddenly no direct route to asia
213
and asia is by far the world's largest consumer of oil
214
and we saw that China is suddenly snapping up all this oil
215
so how do you go from here the Suez Canal where
216
the oil comes out now to here Asia where the oil
217
ends up well by getting a little Vasco da Gama with it and rounding the Cape of good old
218
here's a map of what changed the dotted line shows the old route for oil
219
and it took 19 days to get from the Middle East to say Taiwan or China
220
but now with baba mandab closed the new route goes up
221
through suez across the mediterranean down the coast of africa around good hope all the way across here
222
and back up to asia all of which takes 48 days a full month longer than before we flip this back
223
so here again here's that route and this is crazy we are back in like 18th century spice trade routes
224
and remember it has to travel both ways like this think about what
225
that means one ship will now take three
226
or four times as long to complete a single delivery
227
which means it can only make a third
228
or a quarter as many deliveries in the same period of time
229
which is effectively the same as
230
if two out of every three oil tankers just straight up disappeared
231
and you will be shocked at how much this one thing blows up the world economy.
232
This is the per day cost of hiring a big supertanker to ship oil.
233
Before the Iran war, it cost like $30 ,000 a day.
234
One of the worst days of pandemic, it peaked to like $250 ,000, which people thought at the time was Armageddon.
235
Well, now it is up to $1 .2 million a day and rising.
236
And it gets even worse.
237
Remember that you were both paying a million bucks a day for shipping
238
and you need to hire the boat for twice as many days.
239
So it can, I guess, recreate Magellan's voyage round trip every time.
240
Which means that the shipping price has exploded from $3 a barrel to now $26 a barrel.
241
That means that shipping alone now adds another $23 to the price of each barrel of oil.
242
That is about equivalent to the price shock from the Iran war itself.
243
So it's like the shipping crunch took everything we talked about from the oil shock over here and then doubled it.
244
Doubled the price spike, doubled the shortages because countries can't get oil in time or can't find spare ships, and it did something else.
245
It set us up for this third and biggest crisis from the oil mega shock.
246
Let me show you what I mean.
247
This is oil as it comes out of the ground.
248
And this is the gas you put in your car.
249
And you're going to notice something here.
250
These two images are really, really different.
251
Crude oil on its own is basically useless.
252
All of this is just the first half of how you turn that black goo in the ground into powering the world.
253
And the second half is this, refining.
254
This is an oil refinery.
255
It is huge.
256
Hundreds of acres of towers, sophisticated heavy equipment.
257
These are $10 billion facilities, and they exist to process that 100 million barrels a day of global oil supply into something usable, like gasoline.
258
Gasoline is the lightest fuel, so it goes in cars, motorcycles, lawnmowers, and the world uses 25 million barrels a day of it.
259
And the next thing the refineries turn oil into is jet fuel.
260
Jet fuel is also pretty light, goes in airplanes obviously, and it's actually just a version of kerosene, the thing you put in lanterns, and the world uses 8 million barrels a day of it.
261
Next up is a bunch of other stuff that we don't need to get into, plastics, asphalt, chemicals, a couple other fuel types, all come from oil.
262
And that's worth 37 million barrels a day.
263
which leaves the big daddy of petroleum products the world's most used
264
and most important oil -based fuel diesel and the world appetite for diesel is 30 million barrels a day
265
and these 30 million barrels a day fuel freight trains farm equipment construction commercial shipping generators
266
and most of all trucking if you buy
267
or use a physical product of any kind diesel brought it to you
268
and diesel has one great strength and one great weakness
269
and the strength is that it's heavier and more energy dense
270
so that it can well do this watch what happens
271
when this guy just puts some diesel in a tube
272
and then compresses the air in that tube gasoline can't do
273
that this makes diesel more efficient and effective for a big heavy engine.
274
That's its strength.
275
Its weakness is that the market for diesel is something that economists call inelastic.
276
Think about say gasoline that goes in cars.
277
If the price of gasoline goes up a bunch say
278
because America starts a war with Iran and now there's less gasoline available people can respond by using less of it.
279
The carpool they take the train whatever.
280
It's an elastic product so the market naturally adjusts.
281
But we can't do
282
that with diesel remember what it fuels trucking heavy equipment like
283
farmer john can't turn off his tractor halfway through the harvest
284
because diesel got too expensive he has no choice but to pay that price
285
which is why as soon as supply tightens up you get
286
shortages that's what these photos are from at the start of the video
287
and the people who can find it they pay
288
so everything i've shown you
289
so far tracks how the oil shock over there plus a shipping shock right here leads to crazy prices
290
and shortages by the time it gets to the refinery.
291
But it is so much worse than that because there is now a refinery shock hitting too.
292
This is the massive Moscow refinery on the outskirts of, you guessed it, Moscow, Russia.
293
And the reason it's on fire is that Ukrainian drones blew it up.
294
Here's another Russian refinery 600 miles away in Samara, also on fire, also Ukrainian drones.
295
Russia is one of the world's big three oil refiners along with the U .S and China.
296
And in the last few months, Ukraine has hit 28 out of 32 of their biggest refineries, which is why Russia looks like this right now.
297
140 million Russians, every single one of them waiting in line for gas.
298
Russia and Ukraine are fighting, and they've been fighting all year, refinery war.
299
Ukraine is hitting Russia's refineries to pressure them to end their invasion.
300
And it's kind of working.
301
Refining oil into fuel to sell abroad is one of Russia's biggest industries.
302
It's a huge part of their economy.
303
Ukraine has cut that industry in half, but that means that the world is now down by about 1 million barrels a day of diesel.
304
Trump has said this is why there's a global fuel shortage, but that is not true.
305
This has been going on for like a year or two, and global fuel supplies were mostly fine for most of that.
306
Was Trump and Netanyahu's war on Iran that set off all of this and triggered the global fuel shortage,
307
which has made supplies so tight that something like Ukraine's refinery war on Russia suddenly has a much wider effect.
308
I just wanted to clear that up.
309
Anyway, got a lot worse when our old pals Iran and Saudi Arabia also got into a refinery war.
310
After the US and Israel attacked Iran, Iran retaliated by attacking oil infrastructure like refineries in the Gulf states
311
that had helped the US or host its military bases
312
and then those countries attack at least one big refinery in Iran back
313
and forth on and on you get the idea one
314
and a half million barrels a day of diesel poof gone from global production
315
and then enter our old pal China another of the big
316
three global refiners source of a lot of the world's refined petroleum products like diesel.
317
Everyone was hoping that Xi Jinping would bail us out again by ramping up fuel exports.
318
After all, he was importing all that oil.
319
But instead, my guy cut exports way back.
320
And he did it to the tune of about half a million barrels a day less of diesel.
321
Why did he do this?
322
Say it with me.
323
We don't know.
324
They're not saying.
325
You would think with China importing all that additional oil, they would turn it into more fuel to export.
326
I mean, if only to do what the U .S has been doing during the crisis
327
and selling its refined fuels abroad to huge profits while the price is really high.
328
But China is not doing that.
329
My best guess, they see how bad this is about to get and they're stocking up.
330
So how bad is it going to get?
331
Well, for starters, that 30 million barrel a day supply of diesel is already down by 3 million barrels just from this stuff.
332
But saying 10 % drop does not come close to conveying how badly the global diesel supply is stressed
333
and strained to the breaking point.
334
Like remember these crazy shipping costs?
335
Well, this hits twice as hard for diesel.
336
Like let's say you're Australia and you have a rich, vibrant economy that exports iron ore and fairy bread to a grateful world
337
but what you don't have is oil or a big refinery industry
338
so where does your fuel come from well it starts as oil in the middle east
339
and normally it would leave here through the strait of ramos
340
but we are not in normally so it starts in the middle east
341
and now it comes out here east west pipeline and it comes up here through Suez, across the Mediterranean, across, across,
342
out the Mediterranean into the Atlantic, and then it comes way down here, down the coast of Africa.
343
All of that to get back to the Middle East, but it doesn't go from here to Australia.
344
No. Instead, it goes through here, past India, through the Strait of Malacca, up here to South Korea.
345
Because South Korea has refineries.
346
Australia does not have refineries.
347
So South Korea turns that oil into diesel, which now finally goes way, way, way down here to the land of Oz.
348
So that is quite a journey, and it takes forever.
349
And if that oil tanker taking
350
that trip is costing a million dollars a day now then
351
by the time it winds its way to australia the price of its cargo will have gone
352
stratospheric and this isn't just australia that has to import diesel from someplace else
353
that refines it for them this is the same in europe
354
it's true in a lot of latin america it's true in a bunch of africa
355
and asia these are all places
356
that need to have their oil ping pong twice across the globe before it comes to them as fuel
357
which drives that cost way way up and there's one last thing here
358
that we haven't talked about it's really important it's actually kind of the thing
359
that like sums all of this up
360
and they have a name for this thing in the oil industry a technical term
361
that they like to use and
362
that name is crack spreads crack spread crack spreads crack spreads crack spreads crack crack crack crack crack, crack, crack spreads.
363
Okay.
364
Yes, I know.
365
I have had to listen to
366
so many serious energy analysts say crack spreads are widening while trying to keep a straight face over the last month.
367
Crack spreads.
368
Crack spreads.
369
Crack spreads.
370
Crack spreads.
371
Crack spreads.
372
I just, why did they call it that?
373
I don't know.
374
Maybe they were bored.
375
Anyway, the crack spread is actually a very important thing.
376
It is the difference between the cost of a barrel of oil and the cost of a barrel of gas or diesel.
377
And that comes from cracking, which is the term for processing oil and spread, which means the gap between two prices.
378
And the reason that people care about this is because it measures how much it costs, all told, to turn that useless raw crude oil into usable fuel.
379
And you want the crack spread to be low because that means fuel is cheap to make and to distribute.
380
But the crack spread right now is, you guessed it, the highest it has ever been in history.
381
This is, I promise, the last chart that we will look at, showing the crack spread to make diesel.
382
It's mostly been below $20 a barrel for a really long time.
383
It hit $100 for a second when Russia first invaded Ukraine, but now it is surging way past that record and still rising.
384
And to show you what this is doing, let's look at crack spread and And no, you don't have to blur it.
385
It's not a literal crack spread.
386
It's just a chart.
387
See, it's the chart we just saw.
388
This is a clean show, guys.
389
To show you how this normally works, this time last year, the price of oil was about $65 a barrel.
390
And the crack spread, haha, cost about $20 a barrel.
391
which added up to a diesel price of 65 plus 20 85 dollars a barrel
392
this is normal this is a normal market
393
and now well first the current price of oil is of course 100 a barrel
394
and if you thought that was bad the crack spread today the price of refining
395
that barrel of oil into diesel has gone from $20 to,
396
and you are going to want to sit down when you hear this, $110.
397
All of which means, I know some of you are already doing the math, that diesel has gone from $85 a barrel to $210 a barrel.
398
this is almost triple the price.
399
This is how you go from a 60 % rise in
400
the price of oil to a 250 % rise in the price of diesel.
401
And this, this is the crisis.
402
It's that both 10 % of supply, poof, disappeared overnight and prices basically tripling at the same time.
403
And I know if you're watching this, you almost certainly don't buy diesel yourself.
404
You've probably never bought diesel.
405
But believe me when I say you, your life, the things you do every day are 100 times more affected
406
by the price of diesel than they are by the price of oil or even gasoline.
407
And to show you how, we need to flip the board one last time, but we've run out of board to flip.
408
So hold on.
409
okay i want to conclude all of this with a summary
410
of just a few of the many many things in our world
411
that are getting hit really hard by the diesel apocalypse i could put truly 100 things up here
412
and would not scratch the surface but very basic overview we gotta start with trucks
413
trucking is far
414
and away the biggest use of diesel it's actually responsible for about half of global diesel use
415
and because trucking uses so much diesel it is very vulnerable to price increases
416
which means if diesel is three times as expensive then trucking is three times as expensive
417
and this impacts everything because everything is brought by a truck So like lumber is going to get a lot more expensive,
418
which means so is construction.
419
All those construction materials are going to cost a lot more to deliver, which means they're just going to cost more, period.
420
And even once they're there, that construction equipment runs on diesel too.
421
So that is another way the prices are going to go up, which means housing is going to get more expensive to build.
422
So it will be more expensive to rent or buy and will also be scarcer.
423
And another thing really affected by this is the price of food.
424
About 10 % of the cost of food comes from the transportation to get it to the store.
425
And transportation just got three times as expensive, which means that all your groceries are, rough math, going to go up about 20 % in price.
426
And in fact, it might be even more than that because diesel also fuels agriculture.
427
farm equipment big and heavy runs on diesel so
428
that 20 food price hike probably just went up again
429
and of course flights air travel remember it doesn't run on
430
diesel it runs on jet fuel another refined petroleum product
431
but it's experiencing the exact same thing same shortage price surge
432
both hitting at once most of your airfare is actually to pay for fuel
433
and airline fuel bills are rising by 40 percent which means that your ticket probably also rise by 40 percent
434
even with all of the ticket price hikes a lot of airlines are being pushed by this into
435
or near insolvency so you can expect more cancellations worse service
436
and worse delays okay last one
437
that we're going to talk about although like i said we could put a million things up here, is shipping.
438
These big boys use a lot of fuel, and that fuel is three times expensive,
439
which means it now costs three times as much to ship things overseas.
440
And this means that if you work in an industry that relies on selling products overseas, or if you manufacture something that involves importing materials from overseas,
441
you are in trouble or
442
if your country's economy relies on stuff imported from abroad like say computers
443
or cars you are in trouble
444
and a fun little added irony to this is guess what
445
also just got way more expensive to ship that's right oil
446
the high cost of oil is driving up the cost of oil it's awesome stuff
447
so what does all this mean look we are just at the start of something here
448
but make no mistake it has started i'm not going to say it's irreversible but like just to be really, really clear about this?
449
This up here, this is not some hypothetical worst case.
450
I'm not presenting this as a warning that we have to turn things around before it's too late.
451
This is happening now.
452
It's here.
453
And Americans, I know Trump is talking up a diesel export ban to save us from rising fuel costs,
454
but any expert economist in energy or oil whatsoever, left, right, or center will tell you the exact same thing,
455
which is that this is going to do worse than nothing.
456
This will drive up global prices, which is going to drive up all of this, including, yes, even U .S fuel prices.
457
So sorry, this is not going to fix it.
458
People ask me, hey, should I fill up my car while I still can?
459
Should I stock up on fuel?
460
And I don't know, it probably doesn't matter either way, to be honest.
461
I have a better piece of advice for you.
462
Don't absorb this as the new normal.
463
Don't just get used to it.
464
Every week, every month that we let this stretch on
465
and on because the leaders who started it are too embarrassed to admit that they screwed up and to stop, this thing is just going to get bigger and it is just going to get worse.
466
Thank you.
✨ Рекомендуемое видео
B2240 предложений
War Update- US Helicopter CRASHES In Red Sea & Russian Oil Tanker ATTACKED! TOTAL GLOBAL OIL CRISIS
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B236
24 предложений
The Economics of Happiness - Trailer
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
37 предложений
Watch Rubio Crack Up as Trump Explains Dramatic Shift on Iranian Leaders
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B264 предложений
Iran’s $60B Oil Machine: How Millions of Barrels Reach the USA
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B2471 предложений
This Carbon Emissions Video Also Doubles as Economic Development… and That’s Awkward
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
117 предложений
Why the Oil Crisis Is (Secretly) Good...
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
43 предложений
AI is changing the world, but is it also trying to kill us? @RonnyChieng investigates #DailyShow
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B2257 предложений
Breaking: Trump Begs For BIG OIL BAIL OUT & Canada, Europe & Japan DELIVER!
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
151 предложений
Could You Spend $1 Trillion?
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
507 предложений
Sometimes John Oliver Wants to ‘Burn Everything Down’ | The Interview
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
85 предложений
Significant slowdown in AI payoff could tip economy into a recession, says Apollo Global's Slok
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
158 предложений
🚨Trump WANTS FOX OFF THE AIR after They SHOWED THIS!
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку
В этом видео 466 предложений и 5803 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 35:09. Говорящий говорит в естественном темпе, около 165 слов в минуту, близком к повседневной речи. 84% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка; остальные стоит разобрать перед занятием.
Ключевая лексика этого видео
15 слов из видео, которые стоит выучить, с произношением и значением:
| Слово | Произношение | Значение |
|---|---|---|
| barrel существительное | /ˈbæɹəl/ | бо́чка |
| diesel существительное | /ˈdisəl/ | ди́зель, соля́рка |
| crack существительное | /kɹæk/ | тре́щина |
| shock существительное | /ʃɔk/ | уда́р |
| pipeline существительное | /ˈpaɪpˌlaɪn/ | трубопрово́д, нефтепрово́д |
| strait существительное | /stɹeɪt/ | проли́в, прото́к |
| gasoline существительное | /ˈɡæs.ə.liːn/ | бензи́н |
| flip глагол | /flɪp/ | перевора́чивать, переверну́ть |
| crude прилагательное | /kɹuːd/ | необрабо́танный, сыро́й |
| export существительное | /ˈɛks.pɔɹt/ | э́кспорт, вы́воз |
| chart существительное | /t͡ʃɑɹt/ | морска́я ка́рта |
| overseas наречие | /ˌoʊvɚˈsiːz/ | за грани́цу, за рубе́ж |
| pump существительное | /pʌmp/ | насо́с, по́мпа |
| import существительное | /ˈɪm.pɔɹt/ | и́мпорт |
| shortage существительное | /ˈʃɔː(ɹ)tɪd͡ʒ/ | недоста́ток, нехва́тка |
Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите
| Слово | Произношение | Значение |
|---|---|---|
| go up глагол | поднима́ться, подня́ться | |
| come out глагол | /ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/ | выходи́ть, вы́йти |
| go ahead глагол | /ˌɡoʊ əˈhɛd/ | дава́й, приступа́йте |
| show up глагол | объявля́ться, объяви́ться | |
| turn off глагол | выключа́ть, вы́ключить | |
| blow up глагол | взрыва́ть, взорва́ть | |
| come up глагол | поднима́ться, подня́ться | |
| end up глагол | зака́нчиваться, зако́нчиться |
Грамматика в этом видео
Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:
| Конструкция | В видео |
|---|---|
| Present Perfect Continuous have/has been + -ing — действие началось раньше и продолжается | has been going · they've been fighting · has been doing |
| Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас | have never been · has been · has exploded |
| Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает | was posted · is clustered · are allied |
| Придаточные определительные who / which + предложение — уточнение о человеке или предмете | market, which means · apps, which means · bicycle, Which means |
Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание
Говорящий использует 51 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например don't, they're, I'm. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.
- Звуки «th»: mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, hypothetical /ˌhaɪpəˈθɛtɪkəl/
- Звуки «sh» и «zh»: shock /ʃɔk/, shortage /ˈʃɔː(ɹ)tɪd͡ʒ/, efficient /ɪˈfɪʃənt/, associate /əˈsoʊʃi.ət/, regime /ɹəˈʒiːm/
- Длинные слова — следите за ударением: mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, ecosystem /ˈikoʊˌsɪstəm/, hypothetical /ˌhaɪpəˈθɛtɪkəl/, naturally /ˈnæt͡ʃ.(ə.)ɹə.li/, infrastructure /ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/
Как заниматься с этим видео
- Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
- Начните со скорости 0,75×, повторяйте предложение за предложением и вернитесь к обычной скорости, когда станет легко.
- Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как barrel, diesel, crack.
Что такое техника Shadowing?
Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.