تدريب Shadowing: Gold Selloff is Starting... - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو
جارٍ إنشاء الدرس...
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Gold is rolling over here today, down about 1 % of the time of recording this video.
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We've found resistance at the 4200 level and so far seem to be rejecting it nicely here.
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But let's talk about whether or not this has sustained room to the downside, or if maybe we could see buyers step in and actually hold this new potential support area.
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And in this video, I'll also be addressing a concept
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that I've been seeing a lot of comments make on my YouTube videos
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and my Twitter videos and all the things that I've been posting which is aren't central banks buying gold aggressively?
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And shouldn't that mean that gold should be going up right now?
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Well, we'll talk about that as well as both the short, mid and long term outlook that I think gold currently has in the here and now.
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I do think that the downtrend persists, that sellers are in full control of the technical analysis here that we're looking at.
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But I'll also acknowledge what could mean more bullishness potentially is ahead for
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structure
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but right now from a technical analysis perspective looking left gold
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seems to be respecting at this time the 4200 an ounce
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level i do have a short position open on gold with
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a stop loss above this level in case i am wrong
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of course gold potentially could bottom out here start to rally
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and if it does i will cut the trade for a controlled small loss but why do i think that really simple.
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The macro fundamentals still suggest bearishness in our summary.
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We'll take a look at that just a bit.
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But then also the technical analysis here from a four hour chart and daily chart still show a downtrend is intact.
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And if there's one thing I've learned over all the years of doing this, I've been trading for nearly 10 years here at this point, don't fight the trend.
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It is a simple concept that you learn in the first week of trading.
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And it took me a long that has taken place in 2026 is very violent.
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It's very aggressive and could continue in the here and now.
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A lot of people are making the case, well, gold shouldn't go down because central banks are buying it.
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But understand, central banks have been buying it for many years now,
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but that doesn't mean that gold goes up every single day and cannot have pullbacks within the broader context.
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In fact, if we're looking at the secular, you know, incredible uptrend that we've seen the that we could have a completely normal,
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rational pullback to something like a 50 % retracement in coming weeks
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and months in gold and still largely in a long -term perspective, continue to see prices rise.
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Just because central banks are buying
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or national debts are at record highs does not mean gold will go up every single day.
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This is a common kind of conceptual misstep that a lot of gold pointed at me,
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I am not a long -term gold bear that thinks this thing's going to zero.
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I'm not like a perma bear by any means.
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In fact, my best trade ever took place in December and January of 2026, where I was long riding with a trailing stop loss.
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And once the market started to turn around, I was able to get out of there for my biggest winner ever.
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So I've made a lot of money more so on the long side than on the short side.
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But this year has been really good for shorts because the Are central banks buying gold quietly in the background?
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Sure.
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But does that mean we have to go up today, this week, next month, the next few months, all at the same time?
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No. We could very well see this thing continue to drift
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downwards for a couple months as the central banks just love the cheaper prices.
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I mean, that just gets more gold for them in the long term.
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you know several months a lot of people who are in
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painful situations with gold trades may just have not really fully accepted
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that maybe they chased something inappropriately with too much risk
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or leverage and a lot of leverage gold traders really blew up on this pullback
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and again I want to just say I'm not teasing those people
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or trying to be harsh in any way markets are full
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of painful lessons for me for you for everyone trading is not easy it's a really hard process
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and all we are ever doing when I share my videos here all we're doing is traders is making educated guesses.
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A lot of traders think they know what price is going to do, but intelligent traders know that they do not know what price is going to do.
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It is usually the more ignorant, beginner, losing trader that thinks they know what price is going to do next,
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whereas a more professional, experienced person in trading is going to acknowledge that they could be right, that they could be wrong,
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and they're going to map out their scenarios for no matter what happens.
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So if I am wrong on gold, if I think that we are going to continue to respect the downtrend
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small loss and if we can start to make some grounds to the downside
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if we start breaking through support levels one more once more
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then what i'll do is i will manage my risk by taking my initial stop loss here
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and starting to trail it into profit as i have done
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several times in past gold trades this year i don't know
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if gold's going to go lower i think it could
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but i don't know and there is a very very big difference
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and that is usually the fine line between profitable and profitable trading is not knowing what's going to happen.
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Profitable trading is making an educated guess and managing your downside in case you're wrong.
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In fact, in my experience from doing this for so long, usually if you can handle and manage your downside, the upside takes care of itself.
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And at the time of recording this, the macro outlook for gold still overall looks bearish.
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Our edge finder here is a tool that tracks a bunch of economic growth, inflation, jobs market data, as well as institutional activity through the commitment of traders,
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crowd sentiment through market, seasonal trends, four hour chart trends, daily chart trends,
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and it brings it all together to build a summarized report card for the underlying selected asset.
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In this case, we're looking at gold, which has a bearish reading overall because macro fundamentals, commitment of traders data and sentiment readings,
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and technical readings generally suggest bearishness, at least in the way the algorithm here for Edgefinder works.
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And we've been bearish on Edgefinder for several months for this very reason.
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Most of our metrics have been strong for the dollar has been relatively upbeat versus expectations,
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putting upward pressure on the dollar and negative pressure on precious metals.
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That is why, yes, long term, you can still be bullish national debt, central banks buying gold, etc. I get that story.
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But you can also acknowledge that a uptick in jobs data or, for example, stronger than expected economic growth metrics strengthen the dollar
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and that can cause gold to move lower for a couple months in the meantime.
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In fact, if you're a real bull, you probably want gold to go down so that you can get it at cheaper prices.
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By the way, if you don't have Edge Finder right now, here is your chance to get access for a huge discount that we're doing right now.
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We're doing our summer sale, which gets you access to all the tools, all the features, track commitment of traders, data, macroeconomic figures, crowd sentiment, and more with one platform within Edge Finder.
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If you don't have access to it and you would like to take advantage of this discount while it lasts, here's how you can do it.
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Down below in the description, there's a bunch of information about signing up for the tool while the discount is still live.
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You can get, like I said, 40 % off.
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Scan the QR code
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that you see on your screen right now to connect to
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a real person on my staff who can set you up
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with a discounted payment plan to spread the cost out over a few months.
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If you're serious about macro fundamentals but need the right tools to actually track them,
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that is why my company A1 Trading specializes in building these sorts of dashboards for serious macro traders.
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I also wanted to show you guys something in terms of net options flow on gold.
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I thought this was really interesting and I think that we should continue to closely watch this.
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surrounding gold here has gone from very, very crowded on the bearish side to suddenly getting crowded on the bullish side.
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And this to me is a really nice contrarian signal.
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When everybody is sort of fresh to or rushing to be bullish on gold all at once,
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I typically look at that as more of a contrarian bearish signal.
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You can see a lot of times when things get extreme,
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the crowd sentiment that oftentimes can produce a contrarian reversal signal.
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So as crowd sentiment is getting really bullish on gold, that makes me more interested in potentially staying on the short side for the here and now.
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Check out the put call ratio.
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This is also showing a lot of call volume for gold recently, which again kind of confirms, okay, crowd sentiment is chasing the long side.
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I may want to hover a little bit more on the bearish side.
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That's at least how I use our crowd sentiment tools.
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I primarily use them as contrarian signals.
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Now, for those of you guys who really like the and I know there's a lot of you.
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Our COT data tools, we had a lot of people asking, hey, why haven't they updated?
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It is because of the 4th of July holiday.
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It pushed back the report date for the commitment of traders day by one day.
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That data will be coming in the next few days.
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So take advantage of the COT report when it comes out.
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We'll get a closer view of what institutional money has been doing with gold,
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silver, NASDAQ, US dollar, etc. The new COT velocity charts may on assets that you care about.
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Taking a bigger picture look at the COT data history for gold, however, you can see that institutions are still very parked on the long side as of, you know, the latest report.
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But I'm curious to see tonight where the COT report comes in at.
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Of course, if there is a drastic change to gold positioning or NASDAQ positioning, you'll be able to see it under the COT data history chart,
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which is really nice because it gives you kind of this rolling asset.
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Today's video is sponsored by Ola Prime
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and I wanted to share a few of the things that they offer to their traders.
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Thank you again to Ola Prime for sponsoring today's video, and now back to the content.
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Let's also now take a look at the DXY.
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This is the dollar index, which is generally still in a constructive upward trend.
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We did retest this 100 .5.
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Well, actually, it technically came in at 100 .6, but close enough.
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We did nail this level and found support very quickly off of it.
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I'm very curious to see this week if we can follow through following this move here.
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But to the credit of the bulls, we had a very nice response from this level and actually a bit of a, you know, kind of lower timeframes around that area.
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Here's the 15 minute chart where the dollar dropped hard, found buyers, and then came back to that general area, found buyers again.
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But why is the dollar so strong against peers?
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Well, one way to compare the dollar versus other currencies is to look at the edge finders economic surprise index.
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This is a pretty powerful short term fundamental indicator for traders.
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Check this out.
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The economic surprise index scores from zero to 100 and it measures the economic growth metrics,
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etc. And what this thing does, it looks at what percentage of those metrics are beating estimates or what percentage of those are missing estimates.
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The higher the score, the more the currency underneath is beating expectations.
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So the way to read this would be the US dollar, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar have been beating expectations here recently, whereas things like the Australian dollar,
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the Kiwi dollar, British pound is a little bit more.
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These ones are a little bit more neutral, but specifically like the Australian dollar has been missing expectations.
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You can actually break these things out into more detail under our economic heat maps.
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So here's the US, for example, where we can look at a whole bunch of economic metrics to get a general idea of whether these things are beating,
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missing, or exceeding expectations, etc. So in this case, you can see the US dollar,
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for example, is beating take a look at Australia's, for example, here is a little bit softer of a print.
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And we can also compare a lot of different currencies here.
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I'll add some minor currency pairs as well, all at the same time here with the top setups page here.
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Now, what we'll see here is that we have a lot of different currency pairs that are looking very neutral right now.
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What that means is that across our metrics, they are not really showing a clear, decisive directional bias.
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bullish or bearish reading within Edgefinder.
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If something is getting a plus five, that means that most of the metrics are suggesting bullishness for the underlying.
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And if something is getting a minus five or lower, it suggests bearishness based on the metrics that we study here within Edgefinder.
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So the way to read this would be things like pound yen, cad yen, Swiss yen, pound Aussie.
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These things are getting bullish readings overall.
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And if you flip the score around, here are some bearish reading currency pairs right now.
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And because we mentioned pound yen as an example, breaking to fresh highs here on this one,
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and it has been a really nice overall upward trend for pound yen the last few months.
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To potentially craft an idea here, I could be looking at something like a break and retest idea if my strategy allowed for it.
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But because we were talking about the dollar, let's also take a look at our asset scorecard for the US dollar specifically.
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Most of our metrics here, fundamentally, sentiment, COT, and technicals are reversing the idea of gold, which is bearish.
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Dollar is getting a bullish reading.
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Let's also take a look at what's with oil prices, which have collapsed back down to pre -war levels.
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We're trading below $70 a barrel, and this is definitely helpful for the inflation story.
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The question is, does oil stay down here?
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Do things stay tame in the Middle East?
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It does seem like right now that is the base case, is that things are resolving slowly but surely over there.
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So as long as that continues to be the story, it is hard to see, in my view, a very sharp rise for oil from here.
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But again, with geopolitics, know and something could change drastically all of a sudden.
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That being said, geopolitical risk is back on the rise here, at least according to our risk tracker.
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Check this out.
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There's still stuff going on between Russia and Ukraine and the Gulf markets slip as US -Iran talks stall.
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There's also the ever persistent worry about Taiwan and China getting into things.
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And so there are many potential catalysts that could be problematic for oil.
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While there's a lot of oil supply coming onto the market, that's why a lot of the bears would say this thing should keep going lower.
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The certain tensions around the corner for stuff.
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Clearly, we've seen that in 2026.
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They can come out of nowhere and be very, very aggressive.
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The oil price can double really quickly like that.
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Who's to say that the lower this thing goes, there are still some ideas of, hey, this potential geopolitical event could erupt.
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And then there's people out there who are probably wanting to just be long oil for that possibility.
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For me, though, that's not really how I trade.
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I do like to trend prediction of that sort of thing taking place.
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But I do think that it exists in the oil market right now.
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And stocks are continuing their slow and steady climb higher here.
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The S &P 500 is just shy of all time highs once more.
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I do generally think that stocks can continue to see upside for the rest of this year unless, of course, there's some sort of new catalyst.
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But I do prefer pullbacks in terms of ideas if we do get them on stocks.
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I'm watching, you know, pull back into like the 7250 go to my readings here with an edge finder.
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We can just pull this up for asset scorecard and we go to S &P 500.
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It's kind of getting a neutral reading for now.
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Technicals look pretty solid, but fundamentals are a bit mixed with higher inflation.
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The jobs market does look healthy and economic growth looks pretty good, but kind of some mixed signals on the fundamental macro side.
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The big one to watch, I would say, would be CPI.
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As this number comes in, if this number comes in softer than confirm this cooling inflation theory that is going around, that would be really positive for stocks,
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I think, and could potentially be a catalyst for fresh all -time highs.
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Trading fundamentals can be a lot of hard work, but we actually made a pretty cool free Telegram channel where
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we are publishing constantly updates on what is going on from a macro fundamentals perspective.
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And no, it's not AI.
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It's not written by a robot.
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It's written by a real person on our team.
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His name gold, currency pairs,
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commodities, indices, et cetera, on a global financial fundamental analysis basis.
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It's a really cool newsletter where you can basically stay on top of things by reading for like a minute per day.
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If that would be interesting to you to join the free Telegram channel, there is a link in the description down below on this video that you can join and get into the action there.
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We also offer special discount perks for our products, as well as for funded accounts and for some giveaways as well.
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So definitely take a second to join the Telegram channel in the description down below.
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I also want to take a second to just genuinely thank you for supporting my content here.
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Make sure to subscribe and hit the thumbs up button if you have not already.
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And I do hope that more videos in the future will continue to help you on your trading journey.
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Good luck.
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Thanks for watching.
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السياق والخلفية
في الفيديو المعني، يتم تناول موضوع بيع الذهب والتقلبات في سوق الذهب. يتحدث المتحدث عن كيفية وجود ضغط في السوق وعدم قدرة الأسعار على الارتفاع رغم جهود البنوك المركزية لشراء الذهب. يتم تسليط الضوء على التحليل الفني وتوقعات الأسعار قصيرة ومتوسطة وطويلة الأجل، مما يعكس واقع السوق وفهم المتحدث العميق لتقلباته على مر السنين. هذه المناقشة تقدم خلفية قوية للمشاهدين والمستمعين لفهم ديناميات السوق الحالية.
أفضل 5 عبارات للتواصل اليومي
- هل يمكن أن تستمر الاتجاهات الهبوطية؟ - تُستخدم هذه العبارة للتعبير عن القلق بشأن مستقبل الأسعار.
- البنوك المركزية تستثمر في الذهب. - تعني هذه العبارة التركيز على الأنشطة الاستثمارية الكبيرة للبنوك المركزية.
- لا تقاوم الاتجاه. - تُستخدم لتوجيه النصيحة عن عدم مواجهة الاتجاه السائد في السوق.
- أسعار الذهب قد تعود للارتفاع. - تستخدم هذه العبارة للتعبير عن الأمل في تحسن السوق مستقبلاً.
- هناك سوء فهم حول أسعار الذهب. - تعبر عن الشائعات أو المفاهيم الخاطئة بشأن حركة أسعار الذهب.
دليل خطوة بخطوة لممارسة المحادثة
للتغلب على صعوبة الموضوع المعروض في هذا الفيديو، يمكن الاعتماد على تقنية shadowing، حيث يمكنك متابعة مقطع الفيديو والنطق بالتعابير والعبارات بشكل متزامن مع المتحدث.
- استمع أولاً: ابدأ بالاستماع إلى الفيديو دون محاولة الكلام. حاول أن تتعود على النبرة واللغة المستخدمة.
- تكرار الكلام: بعد الاستماع، قم بتكرار العبارات الرئيسية التي تسمعها. ركز على تحسين النطق باللغة الإنجليزية واستمع جيدًا للفظ.
- التسجيل والتقييم: قم بتسجيل صوتك أثناء تكرار العبارات، ثم استمع إلى نفسك لتقييم النطق والكلمات التي تحتاج للتحسين.
- ممارسة المحادثة الإنجليزية: ابدأ محادثة مع شريك لتطبيق العبارات والمفردات التي تعلمتها في سياقات حقيقية.
- التكرار الزمني: خصص وقتًا يوميًا لممارسة تعلم الإنجليزية مع يوتيوب باستخدام فيديوهات مماثلة لتعزيز المهارات المكتسبة.
باتباع هذه الخطوات، يمكنك تحسين قدراتك في اللغة الإنجليزية، مما يسهل عليك فهم المواضيع المعقدة مثل تجارة الذهب وتحليل السوق.
القواعد في هذا الفيديو
أكثر التراكيب التي يستخدمها المتحدث، مع العبارات نفسها من الفيديو:
| التركيب | في الفيديو |
|---|---|
| المضارع التام المستمر have/has been + -ing — حدث بدأ سابقًا وما زال مستمرًا | I've been seeing · I've been posting · I've been trading |
| الجمل الشرطية if + جملة، will/would + فعل — شرط ونتيجته | if it does i will cut |
| المضارع التام have/has + اسم المفعول — حدث ماضٍ ما زال له أثر الآن | We've found · has sustained · I've learned |
| جمل الوصل who / which + جملة — معلومة إضافية عن شخص أو شيء | posting which is · people who are · gold, which has |
ما هي تقنية التظليل الصوتي؟
التظليل الصوتي (Shadowing) تقنية تعلم لغة مدعومة علمياً، طُورت أصلاً لتدريب المترجمين الفوريين المحترفين. الطريقة بسيطة لكنها قوية: تستمع لصوت إنجليزي أصلي وتكرره فوراً بصوت عالٍ — كظل يتبع المتحدث بتأخير 1-2 ثانية. تُظهر الأبحاث تحسناً كبيراً في دقة النطق والتنغيم والإيقاع وربط الأصوات والاستماع والطلاقة.