تدريب Shadowing: The Reasons for the Bull Market to Resume - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية مع YouTube
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and Chief U.S.
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Equity Strategist.
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Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing the conflict in Iran and what it means for equities.
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It's Monday, March 9th at 11.30 a.m in New York, so let's get after it.
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While most believe the current equity market correction began in February, it's clear to me that it actually began last fall when liquidity began to tighten.
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In fact, back in September, I warned that the Fed was not doing enough with the balance sheet
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and financial conditions were likely to tighten and cause some stress in equities.
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Starting in October, that stress manifested as a sharp correction in the most speculative parts of the equity market and cryptocurrencies.
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The Fed responded by ending its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected and restarting asset purchases, which led to a strong equity market performance in January.
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At this point, the correction is very well advanced in both time and price, with many stocks down 30% or more.
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Meanwhile, dispersion has rarely been higher with the spread between winners and losers the highest we've seen in 20 plus years.
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As usual, the markets got it right by anticipating many of the concerns that are now obvious to all.
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The questions for equity investors now are what will the world look like in six months
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and are prices cheap enough to start assuming a better future?
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The short answer is not yet, but get your shopping list ready.
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In many ways, we find ourselves in a very similar position to last year.
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Recall that the major indices started to accelerate lower in late February and early March.
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The concern at the time was centered around tariffs, but like today, equity markets had already been trading poorly for months on concerns that had nothing to do with tariffs.
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This time around, markets had been worried about AI labor disruption, private credit defaults, and liquidity shortages long before the Iran conflict escalated.
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Corrections typically don't end until the best stocks and highest quality indices get hit, and that usually takes a bigger shock like Liberation Day or war.
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That process has begun with the S&P 500 having its worst week since October.
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The other thing to consider is that market levels tend to be tied to where they were a year ago.
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This year-over-year comparison is very important when thinking about support.
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Given the sharp decline last year, it tells me we have another month during which the equity markets are likely to struggle.
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Based on this simple observation and other technical indicators, I think the S&P 500 could trade as low as 6300
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by early April before our favorable fundamental outlook can take hold again.
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Does this mean we shouldn't worry about the conflict in Iran taking oil prices sustainably above $100?
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No, but since no one seems to be able to predict the outcome of military conflicts or oil prices, I'm not going to try either.
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Instead, I'm going to assume that in six months things have likely settled down after this initial surge, much like we saw after Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Importantly, the spike in oil prices is the result of a logistical logjam in the Straits of Hormuz
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rather than a shortage of supply.
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That logjam is a real constraint, but necessity is the mother of ingenuity and will likely be resolved.
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Another reason to be optimistic six months out is the broadening in earnings growth, a trend that remains intact and a key call on our 2026 outlook.
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Secondarily, the U.S is much more resilient than Asia and Europe to an oil shock given its energy independence.
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This should attract investor flows back to the U.S.
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And finally, tax incentives for capital spending
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and tax cuts for individuals in the Big Beautiful Bill should
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provide a positive offset to the higher oil prices in the short term.
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On the negative side, the flight to quality and safety could lead to more U.S dollar strength, which is a headwind to global liquidity.
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Bottom line, oil and U.S dollar strength is likely to persist until the conflict simmers down.
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While much of the damage has likely been done to the most vulnerable parts of the equity market,
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the index remains vulnerable to another 5-7% downside in my opinion, while crowded stocks could see double-digit declines before a final low appears next month.
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Remember, market lows happen faster than tops, so be ready to add risk in anticipation of the bull market resuming later this year.
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Thanks for tuning in.
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I hope you found it informative and useful.
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Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.
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And if you find Thoughts in the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.
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The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.
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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.
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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
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حول هذه الدرسة
في هذه الدرسة، ستقوم بممارسة المحادثة الإنجليزية من خلال الاستماع إلى تحليل شامل حول حالة الأسواق المالية والتحديات التي تواجهها. ستستفيد من حديث المقدم حول الصعوبات الاقتصادية والعوامل المؤثرة في السوق، وستتعلم كيفية التعبير عن الأفكار والمفاهيم المتعلقة بالاستثمار والاقتصاد. من خلال استخدام shadow speech، ستتمكن من تحسين نطقك وفهمك للغة الإنجليزية من خلال تكرار العبارات بشكل فعّال.
المفردات والعبارات الرئيسية
- تصحيح السوق - Market Correction
- الأسهم - Equities
- تضييق السيولة - Liquidity Tightening
- التدفقات الاستثمارية - Investor Flows
- النمو في الأرباح - Earnings Growth
- الشعور بالأمان - Flight to Quality
- ضعف الدولار الأمريكي - U.S. Dollar Strength
- استعداد للمخاطر - Ready to Add Risk
نصائح للممارسة
عند استخدام تقنية shadowspeaks، حاول التركيز على سرعة المتحدث ونبرة صوته. يمكنك تطبيق التقنية التالية:
- استمع إلى الفيديو مرة واحدة بالكامل لفهم الفكرة العامة.
- قم بتشغيل الفيديو مجددًا، ثم حاول تكرار الجمل مباشرة بعد المتحدث. تأكد من محاكاة نبرته وطريقة لفظه.
- إذا كان المقطع سريعًا للغاية، قم بإبطاء الصوت حتى تتمكن من ملاحقة الكلمات بشكل أفضل.
- حدد العبارات الجديدة أو الصعبة، وكررها بصوت عالٍ حتى تتمكن من استخدامها في محادثاتك اليومية.
- اجعل من ممارسة المحادثة الإنجليزية جزءًا من روتينك اليومي من خلال استخدام هذا الفيديو كقاعدة.
من خلال تعلم الإنجليزية مع يوتيوب، ستتمكن من تطوير مهاراتك في اللغة بطريقة مريحة وفعالة. تذكر أن الممارسة المنتظمة هي مفتاح تحسين مستواك في اللغة!
ما هي تقنية التظليل الصوتي؟
التظليل الصوتي (Shadowing) تقنية تعلم لغة مدعومة علمياً، طُورت أصلاً لتدريب المترجمين الفوريين المحترفين. الطريقة بسيطة لكنها قوية: تستمع لصوت إنجليزي أصلي وتكرره فوراً بصوت عالٍ — كظل يتبع المتحدث بتأخير 1-2 ثانية. تُظهر الأبحاث تحسناً كبيراً في دقة النطق والتنغيم والإيقاع وربط الأصوات والاستماع والطلاقة.
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