ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: The Reasons for the Bull Market to Resume

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and Chief U.S.

Equity Strategist.

Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing the conflict in Iran and what it means for equities.

It's Monday, March 9th at 11.30 a.m in New York, so let's get after it.

While most believe the current equity market correction began in February, it's clear to me that it actually began last fall when liquidity began to tighten.

In fact, back in September, I warned that the Fed was not doing enough with the balance sheet

and financial conditions were likely to tighten and cause some stress in equities.

Starting in October, that stress manifested as a sharp correction in the most speculative parts of the equity market and cryptocurrencies.

The Fed responded by ending its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected and restarting asset purchases, which led to a strong equity market performance in January.

At this point, the correction is very well advanced in both time and price, with many stocks down 30% or more.

Meanwhile, dispersion has rarely been higher with the spread between winners and losers the highest we've seen in 20 plus years.

As usual, the markets got it right by anticipating many of the concerns that are now obvious to all.

The questions for equity investors now are what will the world look like in six months

and are prices cheap enough to start assuming a better future?

The short answer is not yet, but get your shopping list ready.

In many ways, we find ourselves in a very similar position to last year.

Recall that the major indices started to accelerate lower in late February and early March.

The concern at the time was centered around tariffs, but like today, equity markets had already been trading poorly for months on concerns that had nothing to do with tariffs.

This time around, markets had been worried about AI labor disruption, private credit defaults, and liquidity shortages long before the Iran conflict escalated.

Corrections typically don't end until the best stocks and highest quality indices get hit, and that usually takes a bigger shock like Liberation Day or war.

That process has begun with the S&P 500 having its worst week since October.

The other thing to consider is that market levels tend to be tied to where they were a year ago.

This year-over-year comparison is very important when thinking about support.

Given the sharp decline last year, it tells me we have another month during which the equity markets are likely to struggle.

Based on this simple observation and other technical indicators, I think the S&P 500 could trade as low as 6300

by early April before our favorable fundamental outlook can take hold again.

Does this mean we shouldn't worry about the conflict in Iran taking oil prices sustainably above $100?

No, but since no one seems to be able to predict the outcome of military conflicts or oil prices, I'm not going to try either.

Instead, I'm going to assume that in six months things have likely settled down after this initial surge, much like we saw after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Importantly, the spike in oil prices is the result of a logistical logjam in the Straits of Hormuz

rather than a shortage of supply.

That logjam is a real constraint, but necessity is the mother of ingenuity and will likely be resolved.

Another reason to be optimistic six months out is the broadening in earnings growth, a trend that remains intact and a key call on our 2026 outlook.

Secondarily, the U.S is much more resilient than Asia and Europe to an oil shock given its energy independence.

This should attract investor flows back to the U.S.

And finally, tax incentives for capital spending

and tax cuts for individuals in the Big Beautiful Bill should

provide a positive offset to the higher oil prices in the short term.

On the negative side, the flight to quality and safety could lead to more U.S dollar strength, which is a headwind to global liquidity.

Bottom line, oil and U.S dollar strength is likely to persist until the conflict simmers down.

While much of the damage has likely been done to the most vulnerable parts of the equity market,

the index remains vulnerable to another 5-7% downside in my opinion, while crowded stocks could see double-digit declines before a final low appears next month.

Remember, market lows happen faster than tops, so be ready to add risk in anticipation of the bull market resuming later this year.

Thanks for tuning in.

I hope you found it informative and useful.

Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.

And if you find Thoughts in the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.

It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.

เทคนิค Shadowing คืออะไร?

Shadowing เป็นเทคนิคการเรียนรู้ภาษาที่ได้รับการรับรองทางวิทยาศาสตร์ พัฒนาขึ้นสำหรับการฝึกนักแปลมืออาชีพ วิธีการนี้เรียบง่ายแต่ทรงพลัง: คุณฟังเสียงภาษาอังกฤษจากเจ้าของภาษาและพูดตามทันที — เหมือนเงาที่ตามผู้พูดด้วยช่วงเวลาห่าง 1-2 วินาที การวิจัยแสดงว่าเทคนิคนี้ปรับปรุงความแม่นยำในการออกเสียง ทำนองเสียง จังหวะ การเชื่อมเสียง การฟังเข้าใจ และความคล่องแคล่วในการพูดได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ

ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: The Reasons for the Bull Market to Resume

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