跟读练习: The Reasons for the Bull Market to Resume - 通过YouTube学习英语口语
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and Chief U.S.
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Equity Strategist.
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Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing the conflict in Iran and what it means for equities.
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It's Monday, March 9th at 11.30 a.m in New York, so let's get after it.
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While most believe the current equity market correction began in February, it's clear to me that it actually began last fall when liquidity began to tighten.
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In fact, back in September, I warned that the Fed was not doing enough with the balance sheet
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and financial conditions were likely to tighten and cause some stress in equities.
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Starting in October, that stress manifested as a sharp correction in the most speculative parts of the equity market and cryptocurrencies.
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The Fed responded by ending its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected and restarting asset purchases, which led to a strong equity market performance in January.
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At this point, the correction is very well advanced in both time and price, with many stocks down 30% or more.
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Meanwhile, dispersion has rarely been higher with the spread between winners and losers the highest we've seen in 20 plus years.
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As usual, the markets got it right by anticipating many of the concerns that are now obvious to all.
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The questions for equity investors now are what will the world look like in six months
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and are prices cheap enough to start assuming a better future?
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The short answer is not yet, but get your shopping list ready.
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In many ways, we find ourselves in a very similar position to last year.
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Recall that the major indices started to accelerate lower in late February and early March.
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The concern at the time was centered around tariffs, but like today, equity markets had already been trading poorly for months on concerns that had nothing to do with tariffs.
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This time around, markets had been worried about AI labor disruption, private credit defaults, and liquidity shortages long before the Iran conflict escalated.
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Corrections typically don't end until the best stocks and highest quality indices get hit, and that usually takes a bigger shock like Liberation Day or war.
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That process has begun with the S&P 500 having its worst week since October.
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The other thing to consider is that market levels tend to be tied to where they were a year ago.
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This year-over-year comparison is very important when thinking about support.
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Given the sharp decline last year, it tells me we have another month during which the equity markets are likely to struggle.
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Based on this simple observation and other technical indicators, I think the S&P 500 could trade as low as 6300
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by early April before our favorable fundamental outlook can take hold again.
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Does this mean we shouldn't worry about the conflict in Iran taking oil prices sustainably above $100?
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No, but since no one seems to be able to predict the outcome of military conflicts or oil prices, I'm not going to try either.
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Instead, I'm going to assume that in six months things have likely settled down after this initial surge, much like we saw after Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Importantly, the spike in oil prices is the result of a logistical logjam in the Straits of Hormuz
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rather than a shortage of supply.
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That logjam is a real constraint, but necessity is the mother of ingenuity and will likely be resolved.
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Another reason to be optimistic six months out is the broadening in earnings growth, a trend that remains intact and a key call on our 2026 outlook.
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Secondarily, the U.S is much more resilient than Asia and Europe to an oil shock given its energy independence.
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This should attract investor flows back to the U.S.
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And finally, tax incentives for capital spending
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and tax cuts for individuals in the Big Beautiful Bill should
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provide a positive offset to the higher oil prices in the short term.
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On the negative side, the flight to quality and safety could lead to more U.S dollar strength, which is a headwind to global liquidity.
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Bottom line, oil and U.S dollar strength is likely to persist until the conflict simmers down.
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While much of the damage has likely been done to the most vulnerable parts of the equity market,
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the index remains vulnerable to another 5-7% downside in my opinion, while crowded stocks could see double-digit declines before a final low appears next month.
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Remember, market lows happen faster than tops, so be ready to add risk in anticipation of the bull market resuming later this year.
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Thanks for tuning in.
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I hope you found it informative and useful.
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Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.
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And if you find Thoughts in the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.
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The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.
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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.
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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
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背景与背景信息
欢迎来到“市场思考”。我是Mike Wilson，摩根士丹利的首席投资官兼美国股票首席策略师。在今天的播客中，我将讨论伊朗冲突对股票市场的影响。如今，理解复杂的市场动态对于提升英语口语能力和专业词汇至关重要。在这个播客中，讲话者使用了多种描述市场动荡和经济变化的词汇，提供了一个丰富的学习环境。通过学习这些内容，不仅可以提高英语口语练习的能力，还能更好地理解当今经济形势。
日常交流的五个常用短语
- “市场纠正” - 指市场价格的下降，与预期相反的情况。
- “流动性紧缩” - 指市场资金的减少，导致交易更为困难。
- “资产购买” - 中央银行通过购买资产来刺激经济的行为。
- “年同比比较” - 评估当前市场状态与一年前相比的方式。
- “牛市恢复” - 指市场开始回升，投资者重新信心的阶段。
逐步跟读指南
为了有效地掌握这一节内容，建议您遵循以下步骤，以提升您的英语口语能力：
- 选择合适的段落：从视频的转录中选择您感兴趣的段落，最好是包含上面提到的短语的部分。
- 听力练习：首次播放时，仅关注听懂讲话者的意思，不需做到完全理解。
- 逐句模仿：反复播放每一句，停下来并试图复述出来。这就是“shadowspeak”的核心技巧，通过模拟讲话者的语调和发音来提高您的口语表达能力。
- 词汇记录：在重复的过程中记录新的词汇及其用法，利用这些单词构造自己的句子。
- 自主练习：模仿结束后，尝试在日常生活中使用这些短语，增加自己对“shadowing site”的熟悉度。可以在与朋友或同事的对话中加入这些短语，使它们成为您口语的“shadowspeaks”。
通过深入理解和反复练习这些内容，您将不断提升自己的英语口语能力，不仅在日常交流中更加自信，还能更好地参与复杂的经济讨论。
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。