Pratique du Shadowing: The Reasons for the Bull Market to Resume - Apprendre l'anglais à l'oral avec YouTube
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and Chief U.S.
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Equity Strategist.
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Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing the conflict in Iran and what it means for equities.
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It's Monday, March 9th at 11.30 a.m in New York, so let's get after it.
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While most believe the current equity market correction began in February, it's clear to me that it actually began last fall when liquidity began to tighten.
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In fact, back in September, I warned that the Fed was not doing enough with the balance sheet
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and financial conditions were likely to tighten and cause some stress in equities.
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Starting in October, that stress manifested as a sharp correction in the most speculative parts of the equity market and cryptocurrencies.
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The Fed responded by ending its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected and restarting asset purchases, which led to a strong equity market performance in January.
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At this point, the correction is very well advanced in both time and price, with many stocks down 30% or more.
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Meanwhile, dispersion has rarely been higher with the spread between winners and losers the highest we've seen in 20 plus years.
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As usual, the markets got it right by anticipating many of the concerns that are now obvious to all.
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The questions for equity investors now are what will the world look like in six months
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and are prices cheap enough to start assuming a better future?
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The short answer is not yet, but get your shopping list ready.
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In many ways, we find ourselves in a very similar position to last year.
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Recall that the major indices started to accelerate lower in late February and early March.
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The concern at the time was centered around tariffs, but like today, equity markets had already been trading poorly for months on concerns that had nothing to do with tariffs.
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This time around, markets had been worried about AI labor disruption, private credit defaults, and liquidity shortages long before the Iran conflict escalated.
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Corrections typically don't end until the best stocks and highest quality indices get hit, and that usually takes a bigger shock like Liberation Day or war.
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That process has begun with the S&P 500 having its worst week since October.
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The other thing to consider is that market levels tend to be tied to where they were a year ago.
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This year-over-year comparison is very important when thinking about support.
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Given the sharp decline last year, it tells me we have another month during which the equity markets are likely to struggle.
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Based on this simple observation and other technical indicators, I think the S&P 500 could trade as low as 6300
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by early April before our favorable fundamental outlook can take hold again.
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Does this mean we shouldn't worry about the conflict in Iran taking oil prices sustainably above $100?
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No, but since no one seems to be able to predict the outcome of military conflicts or oil prices, I'm not going to try either.
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Instead, I'm going to assume that in six months things have likely settled down after this initial surge, much like we saw after Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Importantly, the spike in oil prices is the result of a logistical logjam in the Straits of Hormuz
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rather than a shortage of supply.
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That logjam is a real constraint, but necessity is the mother of ingenuity and will likely be resolved.
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Another reason to be optimistic six months out is the broadening in earnings growth, a trend that remains intact and a key call on our 2026 outlook.
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Secondarily, the U.S is much more resilient than Asia and Europe to an oil shock given its energy independence.
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This should attract investor flows back to the U.S.
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And finally, tax incentives for capital spending
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and tax cuts for individuals in the Big Beautiful Bill should
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provide a positive offset to the higher oil prices in the short term.
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On the negative side, the flight to quality and safety could lead to more U.S dollar strength, which is a headwind to global liquidity.
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Bottom line, oil and U.S dollar strength is likely to persist until the conflict simmers down.
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While much of the damage has likely been done to the most vulnerable parts of the equity market,
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the index remains vulnerable to another 5-7% downside in my opinion, while crowded stocks could see double-digit declines before a final low appears next month.
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Remember, market lows happen faster than tops, so be ready to add risk in anticipation of the bull market resuming later this year.
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Thanks for tuning in.
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I hope you found it informative and useful.
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Let us know what you think by leaving us a review.
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And if you find Thoughts in the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.
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The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.
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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.
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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
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About This Lesson
In this lesson, learners will engage in an analysis of economic concepts discussed in a financial podcast, which focuses on market dynamics, external factors affecting equities like the conflict in Iran, and the implications for investors. By practicing with this transcript, learners will not only enhance their vocabulary and comprehension of economic terminology but also improve their English speaking skills through repetition and shadow speech. This session is particularly beneficial for those seeking to understand how current events can impact financial markets while honing their ability to discuss complex topics in English.
Key Vocabulary & Phrases
- Equity market: The market in which shares of publicly held companies are issued and traded.
- Liquidity: The availability of liquid assets to a market or company.
- Correction: A decline in the price of a security or market for a short period.
- Speculative: Involving a high degree of risk, often associated with market investments.
- Dispersion: The degree to which investments in a portfolio vary in price.
- Logjam: A situation where progress is blocked, often used in discussions about supply chains.
- Earnings growth: An increase in a company's profits over a particular period.
- Tax incentives: Financial benefits given to encourage specific economic activities.
Practice Tips
To effectively use this transcript for english speaking practice, follow these steps:
- Listen to the audio of the podcast while reading the transcript to understand the context and flow of speech.
- Employ the shadowing technique by repeating sentences immediately after you hear them. Focus on mimicking not just the words, but also the intonation and pace of the speaker.
- Given the professional tone and somewhat rapid delivery of the speaker, it is essential to practice shadow speak—speak along with the speaker rather than pausing the audio.
- For more challenging phrases, pause after each segment and try to recite it without looking, enhancing your improve English pronunciation.
- Record yourself performing the exercise to track your progress—listening back can provide insight into areas where you need improvement.
By consistently using these methods, learners will not only gain fluency in complex vocabulary but also improve their overall confidence in discussing economic topics in English.
Qu'est-ce que la technique du Shadowing ?
Le Shadowing est une technique d'apprentissage des langues fondée sur la science, développée à l'origine pour la formation des interprètes professionnels. Le principe est simple mais puissant : vous écoutez de l'anglais natif et le répétez immédiatement à voix haute — comme une ombre suivant le locuteur avec un décalage de 1 à 2 secondes. Les recherches montrent une amélioration significative de la précision de la prononciation, de l'intonation, du rythme, des liaisons, de la compréhension orale et de la fluidité.
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