تدريب Shadowing: Why Chinese Bubble Tea Chains Are Brewing Billions - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو

It's sweet

It's chewy

And it's bubbling up into billion-dollar empires

We have now three bubble tea IPOs that have come to the Hong Kong market

A standard cup of bubble tea retails for roughly $5 But once you subtract the cost of ingredients,

labour, advertising and fixed overheads like rent and utilities

the profits shrink fast Take into account the industry's average profit margin of about 20%,

and business owners are making about $1 in earnings per $5 cup.

So how do all these tiny transactions add up into a billion-dollar business?

From humble tea stalls to initial public offerings raising hundreds of millions, Chinese bubble tea brands are stirring up serious money,

turning founders into overnight billionaires and flooding Hong Kong's stock market.

Gu Ming there making its debut on the Hong Kong market.

Mi Xue meaning Honey Snow making its debut in the Hong Kong market.

Auntie Jenny, Debuting in Hong Kong market.

But beneath the foam lies a tougher question.

How can these brands stand out in a crowded and competitive space?

And with everyone racing to go global, is the bubble about to burst?

This story's origins began in Taiwan in the 1980s.

Bubble tea, or boba, is a blend of milk tea and chewy tapioca poles.

The drink was playful, refreshing, and quickly became a local hit.

As Taiwan's economy grew, so did its cafe culture.

But it was mainland China that turned bubble tea into a modern-day gold rush.

By the turn of the century, rising middle-class incomes and urbanization filled demand for lifestyle beverages.

The drink became a beloved symbol of Taiwanese culture and national identity, even inspiring a national bubble tea day.

But it didn't stop at home.

The bubble burst onto global shores like Southeast Asia, the US and even the Middle East.

Globally, freshly made beverages, FMP market is a huge market.

If we are talking about the market size back in 2023,

we are talking about 779 billion market size and is expected to grow to 7.2% CAGR per year by 2028.

Over the course of just four months in 2025, three bubble tea chains stirred up Hong Kong's IPO market.

In February, Gu Ming fizzled, raising $232 million but closing 6.4% below its listing price on day one.

Mishra scooped up $444 million and rocketed 47% at the bell.

Aunty Jenny sought 75% above its listing price and raised about 35 million intraday in May.

I think this is the right place at the right time.

A lot of global investors, they are trying to invest in the sector less sensitive to the US tariff.

So domestic consumption, younger generation consumption is more stable or less vulnerable sector.

In terms of the stock price performance, they are up around 20% to 150%.

So most of them actually outperform the relevant indices in the region.

The key difference is the expectation of growth.

So who's currently sipping the biggest share?

Mi Xue now runs over 46,000 stores globally, exceeding American-grown fast food chains, McDonald's, Starbucks, and Subway.

Once considered the gold standard of cafe culture in China, Starbucks is now steadily losing ground.

It's interesting that Starbucks isn't just facing competition from homegrown Chinese coffee chains, but also bubble tea chains that are now selling coffee for coffee-style drinks.

So people like to say that in China, the line between bubble tea and coffee is often blurred.

As coffee and tea brands compete for the same consumers, the real battleground boils down to scale, pricing, and franchising.

And that's where Chinese bubble tea chains are rewriting the playbook.

V-Share is the most aggressive one in terms of store opening up.

In 2024, they are growing at around 22% in new store growth, and almost 100% of their store is franchising.

Vsher is also targeting, I would say, the budget or price cautious clientele.

It has taken that low cost model across the borders.

Its biggest overseas markets include Vietnam and Indonesia, and it has managed to undercut some rivals there and grab market share by pricing below their rivals.

Auntie Jenny, I think their business model is targeting Tier 3 and Tier 4 cities.

New store growth, we are talking about 56% plus.

In terms of pricing, they're slightly higher than Wexuan.

Gu Ming, I would say, is on the mid-tier side.

We are talking about US$1.5 to US$2 per drink.

Gu Ming is targeting in tier 2 cities.

Among the three, they are growing the lowest.

The real money is in the model.

Most of these brands don't run the stores themselves.

Instead, nearly every outlet is franchised.

A franchisee pays an initial setup fee, often ranging from $30,000 to $80,000, depending on the country.

They buy ingredients through the brand's central supply system and pay ongoing royalties.

This could be a fixed monthly fee or a percentage of revenue.

So how do you scale that across countries, cultures and consumers?

To find out why franchising has become the dominant model, we spoke to Gong Cha,

a Taiwanese-born bubble tea brand with over 2,000 stores across 28 markets globally.

We map the world quite carefully in terms of the potential upside for our franchise.

Number one, is the consumer ready for it?

People are moving away from coffee into tea, particularly the younger generation.

Our core audience is smart young women under 30, and that growing base of consumers,

high-frequency users of category, means that we can land in countries and have a great business day one.

Second, we look at how complex it is of the supply chain, and can we land and make sure we have a profitable business for our franchise partners.

If you've got those two things together, consumer and a profitable model, then we're ready to go.

But franchising isn't always a straight shot to success.

While the parent company collects royalties, franchisees often bear the brunt of rising rents, intense competition and small margins.

And when too many outlets pop up, maintaining a consistent customer experience across regions becomes increasingly difficult.

The normal payback period for the business owner, for the franchisee, is between 18 to 24 months.

At the same time, the market close rate for the franchisee is around 20% in general.

Another issue is store location.

Some operators are squeezed even further when new outlets open just metres away.

In some areas, multiple niche stores are located on the same street, just 200 metres apart.

Online complaints are growing louder, with critics accusing the company of prioritising expansion over franchisee profitability,

shifting risks onto small business owners.

An operator or the business owner, they face competition that there is another franchisee opening up next door to you because product differentiation is no difference.

So if you have to differentiate it by service, the quality, maybe you know your smile.

Their success increasingly depends on the strength of their supply chains.

So take MeSwe for example, it's built more like a supply chain business than a T brand.

The company's revenue actually mostly comes from selling raw materials, ingredients, packaging materials and equipment to its franchisees.

Mieswest says it produces 60 to 100% of its ingredients in-house

and it also has a huge procurement network buying from 38 countries

and that allows it to source things like lemons and milk powders at rates that are lower than rivals.

It also has its own delivery and warehouse system.

So all this supply chain model has really allowed the company to drive down costs and also to keep profit margins healthy.

Great bubble tea starts with great tea.

We have built this dedicated tea plantation in Vietnam, and that way we control end-to-end supply chain.

That helps us work with our suppliers to leverage that scale to ensure our commodity costs can be low.

In some cases, we've had those savings and able to pass it on to our franchise partners.

So integration is important.

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We try not to own anything because we have a capital light model.

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But at the same time, our supply partners are really on the front foot to ensure that as we enter new markets, they have the capacity to deliver the volume

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and they've figured out a way to get it to market as low cost as possible without compromising quality.

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While franchising builds reach, virality and taste build obsession.

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It's not just tea, right?

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It's your tea and you can customise everything from sweetness levels on a sliding scale, 20%, 70%.

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You can choose how much ice you have and you can choose your toppings and your tea base as well.

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Bubble tea has seen many localised or regional flavours infused into different markets.

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We've got matcha in Japan, taro in Taiwan, palm sugar in Malaysia, even durian flavours in Singapore.

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So these are all different possibilities.

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90% of our menu is global.

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We're just launching a watermelon in Korea.

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And if it works there, we'll prove the business case and then actually can roll it to other markets.

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That seems to be how we tend to innovate.

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Prove it in a market, see what kind of consumer demand is, making sure it's profitable when we roll it out around the world.

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Search the bubble tea hashtag on Instagram and you'll find more than 4 million posts.

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This has helped the drink's popularity to surge globally.

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This store is very famous.

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I want to try this bubble tea.

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I like it so much because it's very yummy.

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It's only $15.

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I think the price is really great.

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Mishue's viral mascot and jingle drove brand engagement without using pricey ads.

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Taking a different approach, Haiti and Naishue leaned into limited edition drops.

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luxury packaging, and branded collaborations.

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Brands are constantly innovating how they connect with customers, with loyalty programs, delivery-only stores, and even robotic tea makers.

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So how long can the sugar rush last?

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While stores are opening up, they're also closing down.

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According to Chinese state media securities Times, Mi Xue, Auntie Jenny, Gu Ming,

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and Cha Penda saw a store closure rate of between 4.2% and 11.4% in 2024.

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With more chains flooding the market and menus starting to look the same, some chains have shuttered stores due to overexpansion,

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intense price wars and stiff competition.

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Real estate's a big drag on a business like ours and so is labour.

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I think it's moving away from larger footprint, experiential stores that are heavy on rent, heavy on labour, to more stores that are in the way, on the way.

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How we never get competitors, always a good thing and our new technology can deliver beverages at pace.

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The next frontier may not be another storefront.

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It could be premiumisation, health innovation or even AI-powered tea shops.

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The only question now is who'll survive the next wave?

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Whether that's robotic technology that might help us, whether that's a low labour model that'll ensure maximum profitability, we're already getting there.

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Key trends like energy or inclusions that are good for you, functional benefits, better for UT and having fun.

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I think those things will be at the forefront of innovation.

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That's the category of the future.

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تدريب Shadowing: Why Chinese Bubble Tea Chains Are Brewing Billions - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو

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