Pratique du Shadowing: Grade 11: Conditional Probability - Apprendre l'anglais à l'oral avec YouTube

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probability is just about figuring out how likely something is to happen if you flip a coin there are
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probability is just about figuring out how likely something is to happen if you flip a coin there are
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two possible outcomes heads or tails each one has a one out of two chance so the probability of getting
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heads is one divided by two if you roll a dice and want a three you have one chance out
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of six so probability is always a number between zero and one where zero means impossible and
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one means it's guaranteed to happen this is a simple probability now comes the fun part called
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conditional probability imagine you have a bag with five red balls and five blue balls you close your eyes and
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pick one ball and it turns out to be red what was the probability of finding this red ball yes it's simple
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answer is five out of ten or one half because we have five red balls and five blue balls which means a total of ten balls now without putting it back you pick another ball
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what's the probability this next ball is also red it's no longer five out of ten because one red ball is already gone.
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Now there are four red balls and five blue balls left, which means nine balls in total.
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So your second pick depends on the first.
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This is a conditional probability where what happens next depends on what already happened.
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So in short, conditional probability is just regular probability.
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But you already know something, and you use that knowledge to update your chances.
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Awesome!
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So now that we understand what conditional probability means, let's explore the formula behind it.
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Picture a Venn diagram.
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Imagine two overlapping circles, one for event A, which tells that even A has occurred, and one for event B, which tells that even B has occurred.
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The overlapping area, or this region, represents the cases where both A and B happen together, and we call it as event A intersection with event B.
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Suppose you want find the chance of some event A happening, but you already know that another event B has happened.
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This means we are focusing only on the B circle, and inside that circle the overlapping area is the part that also has A.
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So the probability of A given B is just asking, out of everything in the B circle, how much is also in A?
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That's exactly what conditional probability means.
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Therefore, the formula will now be simple.
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The conditional probability of A given B, which we represent like this, is equal to the probability of both A and B happening together, divided by the probability of just B happening, and that's it.
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Now let's look at a super simple example.
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Imagine there are 100 students in a school.
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Out of them, 50 students play football.
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and out of those 50, 30 also play basketball.
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So, we know that 30 students play both football and basketball.
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Now, suppose someone says, Hey, I picked a student and I already know that the student plays football.
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So, what are the chances that the same student also plays basketball?
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Since we already know this student plays football, we're no longer thinking about all 100 students, and we're only focused on the 50 who play football.
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And out of those 50, 30 also play basketball.
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So the chance that this student plays basketball, given that they play football, is simply 30 divided by 50, which is 3 divided by 5, or 60%.
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So the answer is 60%.
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That's a clear example of conditional probability, where we use what we already know to figure out the chance of something else.
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Now let's look at how this fits into the actual formula.
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Let's call the event of playing basketball as event A and the event of playing football as event B.
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So the probability of both events A and B happening together, that is, a student who plays both basketball and football or P of A intersection B is 30 out of 100.
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That's the overlapping part in the Venn diagram.
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Now the probability of just event B, that is a student playing football, is 50 out of 100.
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So the conditional probability of A given B is simply the probability of both A and B divided by the probability of B.
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That's 30 divided 100 whole divided by 50 over 100, which gives us the same 3 out of 5 or 60 percent.
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This is how the formula works behind the scenes.
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Link is in the description.
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So good!
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Thank you.
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Context & Background

In this engaging video about "Conditional Probability," the speaker introduces the basic concepts of probability before diving into the specific and intriguing idea of conditional probability. The discussion begins with simple examples, such as flipping a coin or rolling a dice, to establish foundational knowledge. As the video progresses, the speaker illustrates how the outcome of one event can influence the probability of another event occurring, encapsulated in the concept of conditional probability. This practical approach makes the video an excellent resource for learners who want to enhance their understanding of probability while also practicing their English skills.

Top 5 Phrases for Daily Communication

  • “The probability of getting heads is one divided by two.”
  • “What was the probability of finding this red ball?”
  • “You already know something, and you use that knowledge to update your chances.”
  • “What are the chances that the same student also plays basketball?”
  • “Now let's look at how this fits into the actual formula.”

Step-by-step Shadowing Guide

To effectively use this video for shadow speech and improve English pronunciation, follow these steps:

  1. Listen Actively: Begin by watching the video without distractions. Focus on how the speaker articulates each point about conditional probability.
  2. Pause and Repeat: After each small section, pause the video and repeat what the speaker has said. This is where you will shadow speak, mirroring the intonation and rhythm for better pronunciation.
  3. Break It Down: If any part feels difficult, break the phrases into smaller segments. Repeat them until they feel comfortable, helping to improve English pronunciation.
  4. Practice with Variation: Once you feel confident, try altering the phrases slightly in your own words. This helps solidify your understanding of the vocabulary and concepts related to probability.
  5. Regular Review: Make it a habit to revisit the video. Regularly practicing learn English with YouTube resources will strengthen both your comprehension and speaking abilities over time.

Using these techniques will enhance your language skills while deepening your grasp of statistical concepts. As you embrace this method, you'll not only become more fluent but also gain valuable knowledge that can be applied in various contexts.

Qu'est-ce que la technique du Shadowing ?

Le Shadowing est une technique d'apprentissage des langues fondée sur la science, développée à l'origine pour la formation des interprètes professionnels. Le principe est simple mais puissant : vous écoutez de l'anglais natif et le répétez immédiatement à voix haute — comme une ombre suivant le locuteur avec un décalage de 1 à 2 secondes. Les recherches montrent une amélioration significative de la précision de la prononciation, de l'intonation, du rythme, des liaisons, de la compréhension orale et de la fluidité.

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