Pratique du Shadowing: How to Trade Risk on vs. Risk Off: Macro Environments Explained - Apprendre l'anglais à l'oral avec la vidéo
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In this video, we'll be talking about macro environments
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and how traders can take advantage of understanding how different instruments tend to behave in different macro environments to their advantage.
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So without further ado, let's jump right into this thing
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and talk a little bit about what happens in an economic growth or risk on environment.
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How does that impact stocks,
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commodities, cryptos, yields, inflation, the dollar, and more?
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We'll talk about all of this as well as several other different types of market environments.
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And all I ask as we get started is if you hit the thumbs up button to subscribe,
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I greatly appreciate it.
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Remember, this is not financial advice,
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just sharing my thoughts and opinions.
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And I'll leave the link to this article if you want to go through it for yourself down below in the description.
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I highly recommend that you actually bookmark that page so that you can come back to it for future reference.
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So let's first talk about economic growth environments.
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So let's say things are chugging along,
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things are going well, you've got,
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you know, economic expansion, the macroeconomic story for the globe is looking pretty good.
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People are employed, people are investing,
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people feel like there is optimism ahead.
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Essentially, the grass is greener in this particular example.
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In this scenario, capital aggressively rotates out of the safe stuff and floods into growth-driven vehicles.
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When people feel like there are good times ahead,
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they naturally invest in things that would benefit from a good environment.
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So it should make logical sense that stocks are going to typically perform well in this type of environment.
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This one's pretty obvious.
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A thriving economy boosts corporate earnings and risk appetite,
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driving capital into equities and speculative digital assets.
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We'll talk about how that also impacts positively cryptocurrencies, right?
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Stocks are generally going to move,
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at least at the time of recording this, they're pretty correlated.
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So stocks and cryptos tend to move together in most of these scenarios.
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But you can see crypto and stocks are going to typically respond positively to an economic expansion and good times.
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What about commodities?
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Well, commodities also see bullish spikes,
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typically during an economic growth cycle.
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There's a couple of reasons for this as to why this might take place.
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But I'm really talking about here specifically industrial commodities.
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Think copper and oil, etc. During industrial expansion,
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manufacturing demand pushes prices higher for energy and raw materials.
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And now I know you might be thinking,
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well, does this include gold?
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Well, not necessarily so much.
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When we're thinking about gold,
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gold falls under slightly different just to commodities,
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broadly speaking, because gold kind of acts as a precious metal,
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and that That is more of a risk-off sort of protection environment.
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That being said, gold can also move higher during this period of time because inflation often rises during economic expansion.
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So this is not a perfect one-to-one.
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Good times do not mean gold necessarily has to drop and vice versa.
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There's some nuance here, and that's why we're doing this video in the first place.
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Yields and inflation rising, this is a strong growth response, right?
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So when growth is expanding,
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when things are doing well,
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naturally prices actually start to get bid up.
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Things go higher in price because consumers are out there spending.
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More activity causes more spending.
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More spending causes prices to go up.
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You see the point here.
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Pushing government treasury yields higher as well.
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Bonds during this time also move lower because bond prices move inversely to yields.
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And the demand for bonds is lower typically in a really solid growth environment
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because people would rather buy stocks and cryptos during this sort of environment.
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So generally speaking, during the good times,
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we're looking at an environment where the dollar and bonds are sort of out of favor,
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yields are moving higher, inflation is trending higher,
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but not necessarily rapidly, just it's trending generally higher.
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And crypto, stocks, and commodities also see a boost during this period of time.
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Let's move on to our next segment here.
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And again, like I said,
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if you want to bookmark this specific link,
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we'll leave it linked in the description down below.
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We have, by the way,
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tons of free resources on our website,
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including free indicators, broker and prop firms.
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We have course material like fundamental analysis courses.
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And of course, you can also explore our premium products as well.
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But make sure to bookmark our website for free access to these things as you go into your trading career.
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Okay, so next one is going to be an inflation surge.
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So this is a different type of environment.
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So let's say that you have some sort of geopolitical conflict or like in the pandemic,
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we saw a dramatic supply chain disruption,
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which caused a sudden and pretty aggressive inflation surge globally.
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So when inflation spikes unexpectedly,
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it alters market dynamics by threatening corporate margins,
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which is painful for businesses and eroding the purchasing power of consumers.
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Central banks typically respond by tightening monetary policy,
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creating a challenging environment for traditional investment strategies,
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aka stocks don't do so hot,
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cryptos don't do so hot,
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and bonds don't do so hot during this type of environment.
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In what sort of scenario does this do well?
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Well, of course, commodities tend to act as a bit of an inflation hedge.
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As inflation is taking place,
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prices are rising, so too is the price of commodities, right?
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So if you're thinking copper and oil and all those sorts of things.
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Now, an inflation surge is a bit different than a full-blown stagflation environment where the economies of the world collapse
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and you have inflation.
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That's a very specific scenario.
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This is talking more about you have an economy that's not in the total gutter,
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but you have a sudden spike in inflation.
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That does cause corporate earnings to come under threat.
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Stocks tend to move lower.
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The dollar moves higher because,
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again, central banks, but specifically in this case,
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the Federal Reserve, is going to look at hiking interest rates to combat that inflation or,
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at the very least, slowing down their rate-cutting process.
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This is going to cause yields,
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bond yields, to move higher as interest rates move higher.
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So that is going to be a positive factor for that side of thing.
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And of course, inflation moving higher as well.
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The bottom line on this one is that inflation surges,
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compress equity multiples and crush fixed income or bonds,
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forcing a defensive shift into tangible commodities and cash equivalent safe havens.
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What about an economic slowdown?
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Now this one's pretty painful,
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and a lot of times people are very much wanting inflation to come down.
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They say, I hate when prices are moving higher,
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and I totally understand that.
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It's very annoying when you're experiencing a round of inflation and everything costs more and more and more.
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But economic slowdown is the one scenario in which inflation comes down,
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but it's not for a fun or good reason.
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a economic slowdown, market sentiment turns risk off,
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meaning as consumer spending cools and business activity decelerates,
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capital aggressively rotates out of growth stuff and into defensive stuff.
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And why does consumer spending slow?
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Oftentimes because people lose jobs,
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they lose a ton of money in the markets,
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and it is economic pain for a lot of the consumers,
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especially the lower end consumer where economic slowdowns disproportionately hurt even more.
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Now, economic slowdowns hurt everyone in all income groups,
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but especially low income because they're sort of already not doing exceptional.
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And then an economic slowdown typically means losing jobs,
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losing the value on, you know,
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things they might own, etc. But it does impact all curves
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or all part of the wealth curve
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because even the wealthy see the asset prices on things they own or stocks that they own depreciate significantly.
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So in an economic slowdown,
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right, it's a ripple effect.
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Corporate earnings get hurt and that causes them to lay people off,
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which causes less people to be able to spend money,
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which caused corporate earnings to get hurt.
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And you can see how that is a bit of a vicious cycle.
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During economic slowdowns, you have stocks moving lower,
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commodities moving lower as less demand for raw materials,
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etc. Yields also move lower as central banks rush to lower interest rates to try to help out the situation.
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By lowering interest rates, they're trying to spur economic activity by sending people out,
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hey, go buy a house,
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go borrow money, it's cheap to do so right now,
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in an effort to try and help the economy.
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Bonds move higher during this environment because again,
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they move inversely to yields.
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Bond values go up because old bonds hold suddenly much more value as inflation falls,
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yields fall, and so existing bonds that have already traded become more valuable.
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Inflation also obviously comes down in this scenario because people are just not spending money.
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They pull back on spending,
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etc. During this type of environment,
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the dollar also tends to see a bit of a risk-off flow simply because it is,
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at the time of recording,
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that is the global reserve currency.
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People flock the dollar in the currency world as a bit of a safe haven.
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And crypto also sees selling because it falls under that category of risk on assets,
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which typically do not do well in economic slowdowns.
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The bottom line, an economic slowdown flips the script,
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punishing equities, cryptos, and commodities while rewarding safe havens.
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So generally speaking, a broader way of saying this is a risk-off environment typically causes exactly what we just said.
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Stocks and cryptos get hit while people flock to the dollar and gold,
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which is something that we should talk about.
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Sometimes people get confused by how the dollar and gold can sometimes move in the same direction.
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And during a true risk-off environment,
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oftentimes you can see gold and the dollar move up together.
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So that is something that can take place at times.
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And this is making sense because people rush to bonds.
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They also rush to the dollar and they rush to gold.
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All three are sort of the main safe havens that people tend to think about.
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And the big thing here,
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right here, it does a nice job of defining this here.
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The team did a good job with this one.
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The dollar gets strong because it's relatively attractive to other currencies,
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but also because as the ultimate liquid safe haven asset,
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people hoard cash in these sorts of environments,
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waiting for lower prices or wanting to remain liquid in case things get worse.
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A risk off environment triggers a flight to liquidity,
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crushing stocks, cryptos and cyclical commodities while fueling powerful rallies in the U.S dollar and government bonds.
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So and this is a response to U.S dollar strength.
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This is kind of another scenario.
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So again, I know I keep repeating myself,
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make sure to bookmark this page.
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The team did a really good job putting this report together.
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And I think it's a great guide for as you traverse markets to come back to and reference for future use.
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In the environment that you have US dollar strength,
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you have a mixed response from stocks.
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Doesn't necessarily mean dollar strength does not mean stocks have to come down.
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Oftentimes they do because it means a lot of times you have yields moving higher
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and yields moving higher is interest rates moving higher.
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So that can be a little painful,
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but it doesn't have to be.
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There are times where dollar dominance also is coinciding with U.S stock market strength.
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If foreign investment wants to flock into the dollar and buy U.S stocks,
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those two things can move up together.
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So that is something to think about.
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A risk-off environment triggers a flight to liquidity,
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crushing stocks, cryptos, and cyclical commodities while fueling rallies in the dollar and government bonds.
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So I've also got some videos on this that I think if you want to check out,
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make sure to scroll to the bottom of this page.
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And also make sure to join our free Telegram channel
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if you want daily updates on what is going on macro fundamentals wise.
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We have posts going out every single day discussing the current market environment and how we might trade this better.
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So like I said, check out the links in the description down below
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if you want to unlock this article for future reference.
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Just bookmark the page.
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Join us in Telegram, join us in Discord, etc. Thanks for watching.
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Trading fundamentals can be a lot of hard work,
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but we actually made a pretty cool free telegram channel where
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we are publishing constantly updates on what is going on from a macro fundamentals perspective.
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And no, it's not AI.
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It's not written by a robot.
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It's written by a real person on our team.
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His name is Alan.
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He puts together a report each day on what is going on and things like gold,
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currency pairs, commodities, indices, et cetera,
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on a global financial fundamental analysis basis.
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It's a really cool newsletter where you can basically stay on top of things by reading for like a minute per day.
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If that would be interesting to you to join the free Telegram channel,
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there is a link in the description down below on this video that you can join and get into the action there.
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We also offer special discount perks for our products as well as for funded accounts and for brokerages, et cetera.
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And we also do some giveaways as well.
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So definitely take a second to join the Telegram channel in the description down below.
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I also want to take a second to just genuinely thank you for supporting my content here.
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Make sure to subscribe and hit the thumbs up button if you have not already.
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And I do hope that more videos in the future will continue to help you on your trading journey.
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Good luck.
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Thanks for watching.
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Vocabulaire et conseils d’expression pour cette leçon
Cette leçon d’expression orale de niveau C1 s’appuie sur la vidéo « How to Trade Risk on vs. Risk Off: Macro Environments Explained ». Les mots qui reviennent le plus souvent : environment, inflation, stock, economic, dollar. Cette vidéo contient 232 phrases et 2381 mots à répéter en shadowing. La partie parlée dure 13:13. Le locuteur parle vite, environ 180 mots par minute : attendez-vous à des liaisons et à des sons réduits. 82 % des mots font partie des 3 000 mots les plus courants en anglais ; le reste mérite d’être vu avant de commencer.
Vocabulaire clé de cette vidéo
Les 15 mots les plus avancés de la vidéo, avec leur prononciation et leur sens :
| Mot | Prononciation | Sens |
|---|---|---|
| commodity nom | /kəˈmɑdəti/ | produit, bien |
| bookmark nom | /ˈbʊkmɑːɹk/ | marque-page, signet |
| telegram nom | /ˈtɛləˌɡɹæm/ | télégramme, dépêche |
| macroeconomics nom | /ˌmæk.ɹoʊˌiː.kəˈnɒ.mɪks/ | macroéconomie |
| surge nom | /sɝd͡ʒ/ | montée, poussée |
| oftentimes adverbe | /ˈɔf.ənˌtaɪmz/ | souventesfois, souventefois |
| flock nom | /flɑk/ | troupeau |
| spike nom | /spaɪk/ | clou, pointe |
| inversely adverbe | inversement | |
| rotate verbe | /ˈɹoʊ.teɪt/ | tourner, rotationner |
| thumb nom | /ˈθʌm/ | pouce |
| subscribe verbe | /səbˈskɹaɪb/ | abonner, s'abonner |
| brokerage nom | /ˈbɹəʊkəɹɪd͡ʒ/ | courtier |
| coincide verbe | /ˌkoʊɪnˈsaɪd/ | coïncider |
| compress verbe | /ˈkɑmpɹɛs/ | comprimer |
Les verbes à particule que vous entendrez
| Mot | Sens |
|---|---|
| come down verbe | descendre, tomber |
| check out verbe | mater, regarder |
| go up verbe | monter, s'élever |
| go out verbe | sortir |
| go through verbe | traverser |
| help out verbe | dépanner |
| put together verbe | assembler |
| slow down verbe | ralentir, décélérer |
Prononciation à surveiller
Le locuteur utilise 21 contractions et formes réduites, comme we'll, don't, they're. Prononcez-les sous leur forme courte, telles que vous les entendez.
- Les sons « th »: thumb /ˈθʌm/, thrive /θɹajv/, threaten /ˈθɹɛt.n̩/
- Les sons « sh » et « zh »: bullish /ˈbʊlɪʃ/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, disproportionately /ˈdɪs.pɹəˌpɔɹ.ʃən.ət.li/, stagflation /ˌstæɡˈfleɪʃ(ə)n/, disruption /dɪsˈɹʌpʃən/
- Mots longs — placez bien l’accent: commodity /kəˈmɑdəti/, macroeconomics /ˌmæk.ɹoʊˌiː.kəˈnɒ.mɪks/, liquidity /lɪkˈwɪdəti/, positively /ˈpɑ.zɪ.tɪv.li/, cryptocurrency /ˈkɹɪp.toʊˌkɝ.ən.si/
Les sons difficiles pour les francophones :
- /h/ — il se souffle, il n’est pas muet: hedge /ˈhɛd͡ʒ/, hike /haɪk/, behave /bɪˈheɪv/
- /tʃ/ et /dʒ/ — à ne pas adoucir en « ch » et « j »: surge /sɝd͡ʒ/, brokerage /ˈbɹəʊkəɹɪd͡ʒ/, tangible /ˈtæn.d͡ʒə.bəl/, hedge /ˈhɛd͡ʒ/
- /r/ anglais — langue recourbée, sans frotter la gorge: crypto /ˈkɹɪptoʊ/, bookmark /ˈbʊkmɑːɹk/, telegram /ˈtɛləˌɡɹæm/, macroeconomics /ˌmæk.ɹoʊˌiː.kəˈnɒ.mɪks/, rotate /ˈɹoʊ.teɪt/
Comment s’entraîner avec cette vidéo
- Écoutez la vidéo en entier une fois sans parler et notez les mots que vous ne connaissez pas.
- Commencez à la vitesse 0,75×, répétez phrase par phrase, puis revenez à la vitesse normale quand cela devient facile.
- Enregistrez-vous et comparez avec l’original, en faisant attention à des mots comme commodity, bookmark, telegram.
Qu'est-ce que la technique du Shadowing ?
Le Shadowing est une technique d'apprentissage des langues fondée sur la science, développée à l'origine pour la formation des interprètes professionnels. Le principe est simple mais puissant : vous écoutez de l'anglais natif et le répétez immédiatement à voix haute — comme une ombre suivant le locuteur avec un décalage de 1 à 2 secondes. Les recherches montrent une amélioration significative de la précision de la prononciation, de l'intonation, du rythme, des liaisons, de la compréhension orale et de la fluidité.