ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: How to Trade Risk on vs. Risk Off: Macro Environments Explained

In this video, we'll be talking about macro environments

⏸ หยุดชั่วคราว

ความเร็ว:

232 ประโยค

หากประโยคสั้นหรือยาวเกินไป กดที่ Edit เพื่อปรับแก้

In this video, we'll be talking about macro environments

and how traders can take advantage of understanding how different instruments tend to behave in different macro environments to their advantage.

So without further ado, let's jump right into this thing

and talk a little bit about what happens in an economic growth or risk on environment.

How does that impact stocks,

commodities, cryptos, yields, inflation, the dollar, and more?

We'll talk about all of this as well as several other different types of market environments.

And all I ask as we get started is if you hit the thumbs up button to subscribe,

I greatly appreciate it.

Remember, this is not financial advice,

just sharing my thoughts and opinions.

And I'll leave the link to this article if you want to go through it for yourself down below in the description.

I highly recommend that you actually bookmark that page so that you can come back to it for future reference.

So let's first talk about economic growth environments.

So let's say things are chugging along,

things are going well, you've got,

you know, economic expansion, the macroeconomic story for the globe is looking pretty good.

People are employed, people are investing,

people feel like there is optimism ahead.

Essentially, the grass is greener in this particular example.

In this scenario, capital aggressively rotates out of the safe stuff and floods into growth-driven vehicles.

When people feel like there are good times ahead,

they naturally invest in things that would benefit from a good environment.

So it should make logical sense that stocks are going to typically perform well in this type of environment.

This one's pretty obvious.

A thriving economy boosts corporate earnings and risk appetite,

driving capital into equities and speculative digital assets.

We'll talk about how that also impacts positively cryptocurrencies, right?

Stocks are generally going to move,

at least at the time of recording this, they're pretty correlated.

So stocks and cryptos tend to move together in most of these scenarios.

But you can see crypto and stocks are going to typically respond positively to an economic expansion and good times.

What about commodities?

Well, commodities also see bullish spikes,

typically during an economic growth cycle.

There's a couple of reasons for this as to why this might take place.

But I'm really talking about here specifically industrial commodities.

Think copper and oil, etc. During industrial expansion,

manufacturing demand pushes prices higher for energy and raw materials.

And now I know you might be thinking,

well, does this include gold?

Well, not necessarily so much.

When we're thinking about gold,

gold falls under slightly different just to commodities,

broadly speaking, because gold kind of acts as a precious metal,

and that That is more of a risk-off sort of protection environment.

That being said, gold can also move higher during this period of time because inflation often rises during economic expansion.

So this is not a perfect one-to-one.

Good times do not mean gold necessarily has to drop and vice versa.

There's some nuance here, and that's why we're doing this video in the first place.

Yields and inflation rising, this is a strong growth response, right?

So when growth is expanding,

when things are doing well,

naturally prices actually start to get bid up.

Things go higher in price because consumers are out there spending.

More activity causes more spending.

More spending causes prices to go up.

You see the point here.

Pushing government treasury yields higher as well.

Bonds during this time also move lower because bond prices move inversely to yields.

And the demand for bonds is lower typically in a really solid growth environment

because people would rather buy stocks and cryptos during this sort of environment.

So generally speaking, during the good times,

we're looking at an environment where the dollar and bonds are sort of out of favor,

yields are moving higher, inflation is trending higher,

but not necessarily rapidly, just it's trending generally higher.

And crypto, stocks, and commodities also see a boost during this period of time.

Let's move on to our next segment here.

And again, like I said,

if you want to bookmark this specific link,

we'll leave it linked in the description down below.

We have, by the way,

tons of free resources on our website,

including free indicators, broker and prop firms.

We have course material like fundamental analysis courses.

And of course, you can also explore our premium products as well.

But make sure to bookmark our website for free access to these things as you go into your trading career.

Okay, so next one is going to be an inflation surge.

So this is a different type of environment.

So let's say that you have some sort of geopolitical conflict or like in the pandemic,

we saw a dramatic supply chain disruption,

which caused a sudden and pretty aggressive inflation surge globally.

So when inflation spikes unexpectedly,

it alters market dynamics by threatening corporate margins,

which is painful for businesses and eroding the purchasing power of consumers.

Central banks typically respond by tightening monetary policy,

creating a challenging environment for traditional investment strategies,

aka stocks don't do so hot,

cryptos don't do so hot,

and bonds don't do so hot during this type of environment.

In what sort of scenario does this do well?

Well, of course, commodities tend to act as a bit of an inflation hedge.

As inflation is taking place,

prices are rising, so too is the price of commodities, right?

So if you're thinking copper and oil and all those sorts of things.

Now, an inflation surge is a bit different than a full-blown stagflation environment where the economies of the world collapse

and you have inflation.

That's a very specific scenario.

This is talking more about you have an economy that's not in the total gutter,

100

but you have a sudden spike in inflation.

101

That does cause corporate earnings to come under threat.

102

Stocks tend to move lower.

103

The dollar moves higher because,

104

again, central banks, but specifically in this case,

105

the Federal Reserve, is going to look at hiking interest rates to combat that inflation or,

106

at the very least, slowing down their rate-cutting process.

107

This is going to cause yields,

108

bond yields, to move higher as interest rates move higher.

109

So that is going to be a positive factor for that side of thing.

110

And of course, inflation moving higher as well.

111

The bottom line on this one is that inflation surges,

112

compress equity multiples and crush fixed income or bonds,

113

forcing a defensive shift into tangible commodities and cash equivalent safe havens.

114

What about an economic slowdown?

115

Now this one's pretty painful,

116

and a lot of times people are very much wanting inflation to come down.

117

They say, I hate when prices are moving higher,

118

and I totally understand that.

119

It's very annoying when you're experiencing a round of inflation and everything costs more and more and more.

120

But economic slowdown is the one scenario in which inflation comes down,

121

but it's not for a fun or good reason.

122

a economic slowdown, market sentiment turns risk off,

123

meaning as consumer spending cools and business activity decelerates,

124

capital aggressively rotates out of growth stuff and into defensive stuff.

125

And why does consumer spending slow?

126

Oftentimes because people lose jobs,

127

they lose a ton of money in the markets,

128

and it is economic pain for a lot of the consumers,

129

especially the lower end consumer where economic slowdowns disproportionately hurt even more.

130

Now, economic slowdowns hurt everyone in all income groups,

131

but especially low income because they're sort of already not doing exceptional.

132

And then an economic slowdown typically means losing jobs,

133

losing the value on, you know,

134

things they might own, etc. But it does impact all curves

135

or all part of the wealth curve

136

because even the wealthy see the asset prices on things they own or stocks that they own depreciate significantly.

137

So in an economic slowdown,

138

right, it's a ripple effect.

139

Corporate earnings get hurt and that causes them to lay people off,

140

which causes less people to be able to spend money,

141

which caused corporate earnings to get hurt.

142

And you can see how that is a bit of a vicious cycle.

143

During economic slowdowns, you have stocks moving lower,

144

commodities moving lower as less demand for raw materials,

145

etc. Yields also move lower as central banks rush to lower interest rates to try to help out the situation.

146

By lowering interest rates, they're trying to spur economic activity by sending people out,

147

hey, go buy a house,

148

go borrow money, it's cheap to do so right now,

149

in an effort to try and help the economy.

150

Bonds move higher during this environment because again,

151

they move inversely to yields.

152

Bond values go up because old bonds hold suddenly much more value as inflation falls,

153

yields fall, and so existing bonds that have already traded become more valuable.

154

Inflation also obviously comes down in this scenario because people are just not spending money.

155

They pull back on spending,

156

etc. During this type of environment,

157

the dollar also tends to see a bit of a risk-off flow simply because it is,

158

at the time of recording,

159

that is the global reserve currency.

160

People flock the dollar in the currency world as a bit of a safe haven.

161

And crypto also sees selling because it falls under that category of risk on assets,

162

which typically do not do well in economic slowdowns.

163

The bottom line, an economic slowdown flips the script,

164

punishing equities, cryptos, and commodities while rewarding safe havens.

165

So generally speaking, a broader way of saying this is a risk-off environment typically causes exactly what we just said.

166

Stocks and cryptos get hit while people flock to the dollar and gold,

167

which is something that we should talk about.

168

Sometimes people get confused by how the dollar and gold can sometimes move in the same direction.

169

And during a true risk-off environment,

170

oftentimes you can see gold and the dollar move up together.

171

So that is something that can take place at times.

172

And this is making sense because people rush to bonds.

173

They also rush to the dollar and they rush to gold.

174

All three are sort of the main safe havens that people tend to think about.

175

And the big thing here,

176

right here, it does a nice job of defining this here.

177

The team did a good job with this one.

178

The dollar gets strong because it's relatively attractive to other currencies,

179

but also because as the ultimate liquid safe haven asset,

180

people hoard cash in these sorts of environments,

181

waiting for lower prices or wanting to remain liquid in case things get worse.

182

A risk off environment triggers a flight to liquidity,

183

crushing stocks, cryptos and cyclical commodities while fueling powerful rallies in the U.S dollar and government bonds.

184

So and this is a response to U.S dollar strength.

185

This is kind of another scenario.

186

So again, I know I keep repeating myself,

187

make sure to bookmark this page.

188

The team did a really good job putting this report together.

189

And I think it's a great guide for as you traverse markets to come back to and reference for future use.

190

In the environment that you have US dollar strength,

191

you have a mixed response from stocks.

192

Doesn't necessarily mean dollar strength does not mean stocks have to come down.

193

Oftentimes they do because it means a lot of times you have yields moving higher

194

and yields moving higher is interest rates moving higher.

195

So that can be a little painful,

196

but it doesn't have to be.

197

There are times where dollar dominance also is coinciding with U.S stock market strength.

198

If foreign investment wants to flock into the dollar and buy U.S stocks,

199

those two things can move up together.

200

So that is something to think about.

201

A risk-off environment triggers a flight to liquidity,

202

crushing stocks, cryptos, and cyclical commodities while fueling rallies in the dollar and government bonds.

203

So I've also got some videos on this that I think if you want to check out,

204

make sure to scroll to the bottom of this page.

205

And also make sure to join our free Telegram channel

206

if you want daily updates on what is going on macro fundamentals wise.

207

We have posts going out every single day discussing the current market environment and how we might trade this better.

208

So like I said, check out the links in the description down below

209

if you want to unlock this article for future reference.

210

Just bookmark the page.

211

Join us in Telegram, join us in Discord, etc. Thanks for watching.

212

Trading fundamentals can be a lot of hard work,

213

but we actually made a pretty cool free telegram channel where

214

we are publishing constantly updates on what is going on from a macro fundamentals perspective.

215

And no, it's not AI.

216

It's not written by a robot.

217

It's written by a real person on our team.

218

His name is Alan.

219

He puts together a report each day on what is going on and things like gold,

220

currency pairs, commodities, indices, et cetera,

221

on a global financial fundamental analysis basis.

222

It's a really cool newsletter where you can basically stay on top of things by reading for like a minute per day.

223

If that would be interesting to you to join the free Telegram channel,

224

there is a link in the description down below on this video that you can join and get into the action there.

225

We also offer special discount perks for our products as well as for funded accounts and for brokerages, et cetera.

226

And we also do some giveaways as well.

227

So definitely take a second to join the Telegram channel in the description down below.

228

I also want to take a second to just genuinely thank you for supporting my content here.

229

Make sure to subscribe and hit the thumbs up button if you have not already.

230

And I do hope that more videos in the future will continue to help you on your trading journey.

231

Good luck.

232

Thanks for watching.

TRENDING

ยอดนิยม

เทคนิค Shadowing คืออะไร?

Shadowing เป็นเทคนิคการเรียนรู้ภาษาที่ได้รับการรับรองทางวิทยาศาสตร์ พัฒนาขึ้นสำหรับการฝึกนักแปลมืออาชีพ วิธีการนี้เรียบง่ายแต่ทรงพลัง: คุณฟังเสียงภาษาอังกฤษจากเจ้าของภาษาและพูดตามทันที — เหมือนเงาที่ตามผู้พูดด้วยช่วงเวลาห่าง 1-2 วินาที การวิจัยแสดงว่าเทคนิคนี้ปรับปรุงความแม่นยำในการออกเสียง ทำนองเสียง จังหวะ การเชื่อมเสียง การฟังเข้าใจ และความคล่องแคล่วในการพูดได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ

☕ เลี้ยงกาแฟเราสักแก้ว

ShadowingEnglish ยังคงเปิดให้ใช้งาน ฟรี 100% ได้ด้วยการสนับสนุนจากคุณ ค่าใช้จ่ายสำหรับเซิร์ฟเวอร์และ AI นั้นสูงมาก — กาแฟของคุณช่วยให้เราเดินหน้าต่อไปได้! 🙏

บริจาคผ่าน PayPal

ShadowingEnglish.com – ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษแบบ Shadowing

ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: How to Trade Risk on vs. Risk Off: Macro Environments Explained

ยอดนิยม

เกี่ยวกับบทเรียนนี้

คำศัพท์และวลีสำคัญ

เคล็ดลับการฝึกซ้อม

เทคนิค Shadowing คืออะไร?

ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: How to Trade Risk on vs. Risk Off: Macro Environments Explained

ดาวน์โหลดแอป

เกี่ยวกับบทเรียนนี้

คำศัพท์และวลีสำคัญ

เคล็ดลับการฝึกซ้อม

เทคนิค Shadowing คืออะไร?