シャドーイング練習: Game Theory #1: The Dating Game - 動画で英語スピーキングを学ぶ

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This semester we are going to analyze a question together which is how do societies behave?

What do we do what we do?

What motivates us?

What drives us?

And there have been different theories as to what drives human behavior.

Okay so let's go over some theories.

The first theory comes to us from religion.

The idea is that we are all driven in a war between good and evil.

There's a good side to us

and there is an evil side to us there's satan and there's god and we are causing a battle in ourselves

okay do we move towards satan or do we move towards god and that's the core of human civilization

so religion is meant to give us the strength to show

us the path towards goodness okay that's one theory another theory is comes to us from biology okay

and the idea is sex we want to pass on our genes forward

because that's the point our existence if we cannot have children we all die

so the point of existence is to have children

and have them pass on their genes to others okay

and for males and females life is different

because as a man you have a penis

and all you have to do is stick your penis into a woman and and you're good, okay, and that's all you have to do.

So you want to stick your penis in as many women as possible, and that's the point of your existence.

But as a woman, your life is different because it's hard to give birth.

It takes nine months to incubate the child in your womb, and then childbirth is the most painful experience anyone will ever experience,

and then the child, it'll take like 16, 18 years to raise a child to maturity.

So it's a huge investment on your part.

So as a female, you have to be very cautious, very careful about who you marry or who you have sex with, okay?

And so life is a struggle between men who want to put their penis into anything

and women who want to be careful about who they marry, okay?

So that's the idea of biology.

Then, of course, you have the idea of race and culture,

that the world is a struggle between these different races and cultures for dominance,

and each race, each culture has their own characteristics, okay?

So maybe the yellow race, they're very clever, but they're very weak.

and then the white race are brave but kind of stupid

and the black people like anyway anyway that's another theory i'm

not saying it's correct i'm just saying it's a theory

that people believe it then you have economics right

and what they believe is that we are driven by money

or self interest we want to make as much money as possible

and that's what drives us okay that's pretty simple and the last big theory is the idea of liberalism

that comes from the Enlightenment and here the theory is

that history is a progress towards enlightenment to rationality to truth

and to justice so the inability of history of human development is towards paradise towards heaven

and maybe you know we go off track now and then

but inevitably we move towards God

and this comes to us from the enlightenment we call this liberalism okay

so these are five theories there are others but these are five theories

that show you the diversity the variety of ideas out there

what I will do the semester is present to you another theory which I call game theory.

And my argument to you is that game theory is the best way to understand how humans behave.

What drives nations?

What drives societies?

What drives humans?

Okay?

So that's my argument to you this semester.

So the entire semester, we will study game theory.

All right, so what is game theory?

All right, game theory is very simple.

The idea is that there are three components to a game, just three aspects to a game.

There are the players, the participants,

okay, then there are the rules or the constraints.

In mathematics, we would call this the boundary conditions, okay?

The limits to the game.

And the third aspect are the incentives.

Basically, how do you win this game?

What do you get from this game?

My argument to you this semester is that if you study all three, okay, if you figure who the players are

if you understand the rules you understand the incentives then you understand how the game works

and then therefore you can predict how the game will turn out okay that's the skill

that i want to teach you this semester

and what i want to show you or what i promise you is that if you learn game theory,

there'll be three major benefits to you as a student.

Again, you don't have to learn game theory.

You don't have to come to class.

But if you spend the effort to learn game theory from me,

then three things will benefit you, okay?

The first benefit is that you become a better person.

the point of education guys it's not to get good grades

or get in university

or get a good job what I believe is the point

of education is to make you into a better person

which means that you are a much more thoughtful person who can better analyze yourself

and the world around you this allows you to make better

better decisions this makes you a much more curious much more moral

and much more imaginative person okay

so one benefit of learning game theory is you become smarter

and therefore you become become a better person okay that's number

one um number two is you'll be able to understand the world

that we live in because this world is kind of stupid okay

so you may have heard that Donald Trump and the American military went into Venezuela for no good reason,

kidnapped a president of Venezuela, which is against international law, and then brought him back to New York City, where he will stand trial.

It's really stupid what happened.

But our class, it's not meant to say this is stupid or this is wrong, because we all know it's stupid

and wrong we're trying to figure out why this happened

and what this will lead to and

so we will be in this class studying

and analyzing current events to understand how the world really works why people behave the way they do

and understand how the game of the world works

and this requires you to actually follow the news okay it's not hard to spend five minutes

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and just read up on the news but We'll be looking at the war in Ukraine.

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We'll be looking at a new war between Israel and Iran.

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We'll be looking at what's happening in South America.

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We'll be looking at the conflict between China and Japan.

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We'll be looking at the relationship between the United States and China.

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Okay?

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So this is relevant to your lives because you will eventually have to work

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and live in this really screwed up world that we live in.

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Okay?

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and the third benefit is once you understand the game you

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will have predictive powers you'll be able to understand how the

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world will develop you'll be able to analyze your own life and understand how you will develop and

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that gives you control

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sovereignty over your own destiny okay that's my promise to you if you actually spend the time

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to listen carefully in class to participate fully to follow the news uh

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and you spend the entire semester doing

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so then these three benefits will start to accrue in you

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okay this is a lifelong struggle to learn game theory i'm

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a lot older than you are i have a lot more experience than you Okay, but I want to show you how to look at the world through game theory.

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Another phrase that you learn in school is, I'm going to teach you how to think critically about the world.

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Or I'll just teach you how to think, okay?

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Alright, are we clear?

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Any questions before I move on?

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Alright, so this is all very abstract. And

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so what I'm going to do now is I'm going to

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use an example of a game to show you how game theory works, okay?

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All right, so let's use a really simple game, okay?

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Let's imagine there are five boys and five girls, and they want to get married, okay?

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So these are the players, and what we're going to do is we're going to divide them up into male and female male.

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Then what we're going to do is we will rank the males and the females.

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Okay?

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So we're going to rank 10 players into 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.

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5, 4, 3, 2, 1.

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Okay?

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And so how do we rank them?

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Well, we rank them according to their attractiveness using three criteria.

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The The first is genes,

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the second is wealth, and the third is status, okay?

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So genes is very simple.

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It means that you're good looking, it means you're tall, it means you're healthy, you will live a long time, okay?

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Genes is pretty simple to understand.

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Wealth just means that you and your family have a lot of money.

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Status means that you have a lot of friends, Since you have a high status job you come from a really powerful family, okay?

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So these are the three criteria that we can use to judge a person's attractiveness.

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And then what we can do is rank them from five to one.

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Five means really the best, one means the worst, okay?

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And we can rank all 10 according to these metrics.

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So according to biology, what we call evolution biology or evolution psychology,

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we're always trying to find the best genes to procreate because this ensures that our genes pass on.

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Okay? so um remember that men have a penis

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which they can stick into anything woman have to give birth

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so the strategies are different okay so basically five number five is trying to have sex with all

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five women right that's his strategy But female number five wants to ensure that she only gets five,

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okay?

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So these are different strategies.

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And according to evolutionary psychology,

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all five of these females should try to procreate with number five, okay?

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But we know you can't do this.

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It's suicidal.

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Why is it suicidal?

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Because the human rights couldn't survive, right?

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It'd be idiotic to do something like this, where all five women are just trying to marry this one guy.

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It may be him, okay?

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But these three are eliminated.

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Because then your society would collapse.

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You can have that many children.

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So this can't possibly be true, right?

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so let's figure out what rationally what should happen okay all right

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so let's think about this rationally or from an economics perspective all right

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so again number five he's trying to maximize the game so he's trying to sleep with all All five women, okay?

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The problem if he does that is, these five know they're all being played.

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And they recognize that this guy is probably an asshole.

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So five, the best woman is like, you know what?

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There's not much difference between four and five, so I'll just go marry this guy, right?

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So number four is gone.

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And number four is like, you know what?

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Five is probably making a good decision, So I'll just go marry number three, right?

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And then what happens now is that five, by trying to marry all the women,

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it's stuck with the worst choice, right?

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So that's not stupid for him.

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He's stuck with number one.

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But guess what?

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If any of these guys try this crap, the same thing happens to him, where four is like, you know what?

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I can't get five, but I'll try to get four and three together.

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And then three's like, screw you.

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I'm going to go and marry two.

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Four's going to marry three, okay?

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Then he's stuck with one as well, or he's just alone.

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So if they try to individually maximize their outcome, they all get screwed in the end.

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So the only way out of this is that they cooperate, okay?

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And the best way to cooperate is basically five is like, you know what?

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But screw this, I'm not gonna go after four or three, I'll just have my five, okay?

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All right, four is like, yeah, I'll just go marry four.

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No dating, no games, I'll just go marry four.

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And three marries three, two marries two, and one marries one, okay?

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And the world now is perfect.

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Everyone has a husband and a wife, and they can now just have children, and the world is perfect.

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And this is actually the best strategy for all the players, right?

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We call this, the word in game theory we use for this is called the Nash Equilibrium.

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Okay, Nash Equilibrium just means that you always reach a state in which all the players maximize their outcome, the Nash Equilibrium.

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And so the world makes sense now.

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There's a problem with this, though.

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The problem is, in real life, no one does this, okay?

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In real life, no one actually follows this rule.

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Natural equilibrium is just a theory we made up.

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But in real life, that's just not what happens.

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What happens in real life is we choose to be suicidal, okay?

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So let me tell you about a game I play.

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So last year I was teaching this class and I asked the boys and I asked the girls.

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Pretend you are now 30 years old, right?

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Your parents are pestering you to get married.

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And you've been on the dating market for 10 years.

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There's really no one that you think is perfect for you.

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You have basically given up on love.

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Imagine that you want to get married now.

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And tell me what is the minimum requirement you need in order to agree to marry someone else.

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Okay, what's the minimum, okay?

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And then I have the boys and the girls who are done in response.

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The boys were pretty simple, right?

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Well, you know, as long as she likes me and as long as I put my penis into her, I'm good, okay?

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It's that simple, okay?

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It really is.

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Guys are like, yeah, I'll settle for anything.

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That's the boys, right?

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Girls were different.

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Girls who are like, okay, if I don't love him, if I'm not even attracted to him, I need about a million dollars a month.

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Really?

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Oh my God.

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Yeah, I need about a million dollars.

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Last class.

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Last semester.

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Okay, all right.

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So, this makes no sense, right?

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So, in theory, in theory, we should follow an actual equilibrium.

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But in real life, what happens is this.

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All the girls want this one guy.

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Okay?

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And maybe number four.

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They'll settle for number four.

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But three, two, one, they don't want.

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And we know, because just look at the world around you.

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Look at these billionaires, right, like Elon Musk.

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How many wives does he have?

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How many children does he have?

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Right?

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All the women in the world, many, not all, but many just want to marry actors, like Brad Pitt.

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Billionaires like Elon Musk, right?

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And three, two, and one, what do they do?

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Well, they watch Netflix, they watch porn, they play video games, they've given up on life, okay?

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They're like, we don't care.

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We call these people incels, right?

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Involuntary celibates because basically, they've given up on life and life has given up on them.

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So this entire competition is between number five and four for all the women in the world.

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And this is, again, suicidal.

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This will lead to the death of humanity.

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and the question now is okay why are we suicidal and

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so let's look at game three analysis right the players the rules

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and incentives we don't we know what the players are the

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players are doing stupid things the rules we know okay

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but the incentives is something that we have to think about why they behave like this

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and the answer is because they're not interested in sex

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or procreation what they're interested in is status okay that's the game they're playing status

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i don't want to marry someone to have children i don't marry someone

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so i can take a picture of her and post it on instagram

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so i can get a lot of likes i want to marry someone

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so i can walk with her in the mall

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and all the guys are jealous i want to marry someone

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who i can brag about okay it's a game about status not a game about sex

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or procreation you understand there are not people not being rational

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here people are trying to maximize their status in life

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and that's why everyone's behaving like this number look she may be the oldest woman in the world

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but she's still like you know what it's still my choice we're not to have kids

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and having kids is a pain in the ass so

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if I'm gonna make the sacrifice this guy better be good -looking okay

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or this guy better be rich otherwise why would I have kids okay

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so this is why people behave the way they do

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if you think about this way what you recognize is

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that people are rational

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but to understand why they're rational you have to figure out what the game is okay

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but then this leads to us to a question

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which is okay well clearly this is wrong because

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if we behave like this throughout human history we wouldn't be here today okay how is it

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that we have this game today and we're gonna die

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but we must have come from somewhere we've been around for like a long time

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so how is it that humans have survived for

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so long doing these stupid things and the answer is

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because the game changes over time according to

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the superstructure of society okay the superstructure the superstructure

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is what determines the nature of the game superstructure just think

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about the big picture right how many people are there is a study wealthy

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or poor are there enemies to this society okay this is

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the superstructure the big picture demographics economics culture politics religion

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and these things together is what determines the nature of the game all right

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so let's look at three examples of superstructure all right um

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example one is you have a low population society okay low

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population is like maybe 200 people 200 people okay a village basically they are poor

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and um low technology low technologies means they don't have access

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to clean water they don't know what hygiene is they don't understand what germs are

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so it's very easy for a woman to die in childbirth okay and low competition

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low competition just means that there are no competing villages against them okay so that's one kind of superstructure

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the early superstructure of human society okay then you have maybe growing population okay

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so maybe we're talking like maybe 10 000 people 20 000

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people they are now growing in wealth growing wealth um they

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have some technology meaning they have access to clean water

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and they have high competition okay meaning that they're competing against different villages

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and societies around them okay that's another superstructure now the third superstructure is overpopulation

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okay

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which is the world we live in today okay where in

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china you have a billion people that's a lot of people um too much wealth okay

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but with wealth you have inequality right

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and then you have high technology this high technology just means that every woman who who gives birth will not die.

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And every child born will live, okay?

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And then you have something called equilibrium.

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Equilibrium just means that, yeah, there's competition, but they're not gonna go to war against each other.

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The world is basically peaceful, okay?

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And according to superstructure, the game is going to change.

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So let's go back to the game, okay?

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We have 10 people.

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In a low population, poor society, guess what, they're not going to date.

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What they're going to do is, they might get married, but they're going to have sex with each other.

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Why?

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Because as a woman, the only way to ensure that your child survives is

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if all the men in the village want to protect and nurture the child.

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And they will do that if they believe that the child could be theirs, okay?

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So the woman will maybe have a husband, but the woman will also choose to sleep with other men to disguise paternity.

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Doesn't make sense.

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So there's no dating, there's just lots and lots of sex in order to maintain social cohesion, okay?

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Now, in a superstructure number two, there's no dating either.

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Why?

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Because this society is in competition with other societies and they need to have as many children as possible.

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So what the solution here is to arrange marriages.

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Arrange marriages.

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Where, you know, who cares who you marry just have lots and lots of kids, okay?

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There's no dating either.

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Just have lots and lots of kids.

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You marry who your parents tell you to marry.

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You marry someone that you know.

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You marry your childhood best friend.

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Who cares, okay?

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But you marry someone, you have lots and lots of kids.

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That's superstructure number two.

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Superstructure number three is the one we live in.

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And here, you have a dating game.

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Right? Because why?

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Because the odds of you obtaining status is really, really low, okay?

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And the only way that you can change your status is by marrying up.

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And that's why you have a dating game.

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A dating game is an opportunity for you to find someone better than your social demographic circumstance can suggest.

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And that's why you have low decreasing fertility rate,

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where over time, because of the dating game, society will collapse. Does that make sense?

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Alright, so now you're the government and all in the world,

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women who are wealthy, well educated, are refusing to have children, especially in East Asia.

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Right now the fertility rate in China is It's about one, okay, about one.

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The replacement rate that you need is a 2 .1.

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So just to maintain your current population levels, every woman in China needs to give birth to at least two kids.

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But right now, on average, women are usually going to have one kid only in China.

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And the worst thing is that this trend is increasing.

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So five years ago, the fertility rate was maybe 1 .7.

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Now it's one.

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Okay, so the trend is very, very negative.

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Okay, so governments all in the world are trying to figure out what to do.

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How do you convince women to have more kids?

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And what we've discovered is, it's impossible.

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We can pay you more money, like they do in South Korea, guess what, it doesn't work.

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Because people don't want money, they want status.

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And status is a zero -sum game, okay?

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Money is infinite, but status, power, is a zero -sum game.

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So we have overpopulation, we have too many people competing for too few status positions, you have decreasing fertility

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and there's nothing you can do about it the moment you

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give woman choice they choose to improve their lives by marrying someone better okay not all

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but most and so over time what happens is your society collapses

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if you look at history the best indicator

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that a society is about the collapse is

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if the woman who are wealthy and educated

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if they refuse have children it's the same this is what

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happened to the Romans who collapse this is what happened to

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many empires this is what's happening around the world today in America in Britain in Europe in China okay

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and this tells us that society is collapsing

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so in other words what this really is okay the superstructures it it tells us the life cycle of a civilization, right?

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So this is when civilization is young, then it mature, it grows, and then it collapses.

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Okay?

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And if you look at history, all civilizations go through this process of birth, maturation, and then collapse.

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And there's no way around it.

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So the power of game theory is that just by studying one aspect, okay, if I just study this game, all right, I figure out who the players are,

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the rules, and the incentives, I figure out what the superstructure of the civilization is, okay?

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And then once I have these two, I can now figure out where it came from

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and where it's going okay that's what I want to teach you in this class how to analyze a situation

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so you understand the players the rules and incentives

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which will give you insight into a superstructure

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so you can figure out where it came from and then you can also predict where it's going all right so So,

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but you can also look at the superstructure and figure out what the game is being played.

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So this is one example, but throughout the semester we'll be doing many, many different examples of game theory.

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Is this clear so far? Are there any questions?

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Any comments?

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Any questions before I move on?

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All right, so let's just look at some basic facts, okay?

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All right, this is a map of the world, okay?

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As you can see, okay, oh, sorry.

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All right, so the coverage scheme is this.

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The red is where the population, the society has an above replacement fertility rate, so above 2 .1.

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If it's dark red, like here in the middle of Africa, it's 6 to 7, or 6 above, okay?

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And why is that the case?

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Because Africa is in a situation where it's a growing society with middling tech, so a lot of people die, lots of competition.

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So to survive, families have to give birth to a lot of kids, okay?

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They have no choice in the matter.

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But then you move to the rest of the world, okay?

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So this is North America, Europe, and East Asia, the three wealthiest parts of the world.

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And guess what?

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The fertility rate is collapsing because now we've entered the end game where it is overpopulation, too much wealth, so too much inequality.

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And so women are forced to pick the best possible mate or not have children at all.

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All right, and here the situation is very, very dire.

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North America and Europe are kind of okay.

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Why?

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Because of immigration.

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Because even though their women are not having children, they can choose to import people for their labor force.

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But East Asia is .

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Really, really screwed, guys, okay?

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So just look at this region.

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Okay, so China is one, but the worst is North Korea, oh sorry, South Korea.

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South Korea has the lowest population rate in, sorry, the lowest fertility rate in the world.

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They're at between 0 .6 to 0 .8.

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So they're probably gone in 50 years' time.

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It's so bad that when you go to South Korea, They have signs outside restaurants that says no dogs and no kids.

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They think that kids are a problem.

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So you look at these areas, again, they are poorer, so women are forced to have more children in order to survive.

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But you look at wealthy areas, well, they're probably gone in 100 years' time.

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It's total collapse.

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The solution that governments are choosing right now is to import immigrants, okay?

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So these are the trends right now.

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And it's causing a lot of disruption in society because, guess what guys, people don't like outsiders.

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People don't like immigrants.

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But they don't have a choice in the matter because along with the fertility crisis,

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it's the aging crisis where your population is getting older and older, okay?

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So life, the world, is not that simple.

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If you want to know who will rule the world in 100 years' time, just figure out which society, in which society, do wealthy,

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well -educated women choose to have children.

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And then that's deciding to rule the world.

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Okay, it's that simple, right?

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Well, unfortunately, if you do it that way, you get a really, really disturbing answer.

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Okay, so this is per capita GDP, okay?

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So how much do people make?

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All right, so obviously, if you're zero, you're very poor, and if you move to over here, you're very wealthy.

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Okay, so the United States is the welfare side in the world, right?

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Sure, we can understand that.

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Then this is the fertility rate, which tells us how many children women have on average.

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Okay, so again, 2 .1 is replacement rate, okay?

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2 .1 is replacement rate.

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So the United States is actually below replacement rate, but the United States doesn't really care because they can import immigrants, okay?

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Okay, China is probably around here somewhere, okay?

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Angola is up here, but it's poor.

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So what this map tells us is a country that is most likely to be dominant for the next 50 years

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is this country, Israel, okay?

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It is the only wealthy,

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western, high -tech society in which women choose to have more than two kids.

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This is what gaming theory teaches us.

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And yeah, I know there are people who are like, yeah, but Israel, it has 9 million people.

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And it's in the middle of a desert.

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And everyone hates Israel.

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I understand.

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Thank you very much, okay?

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I understand that.

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But if you just analyze how the game works, okay, if you just look at it objectively from a game theory perspective,

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you are forced to conclude that Israel right now has the major advantage over everyone else.

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Now, it is possible that studies will change the fertility rate as the world changes, okay?

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But I'm saying that given the current state of things, Israel, their growth trajectory is very, very high.

465

But then the question then is, okay, why is it that Israel,

466

they are different from everyone else?

467

And the answer is because the world hates them okay

468

because they think they are different from everyone else

469

and they must unite together to survive so in Israel fertility is status okay

470

if you are a woman and you give birth to a lot of kids

471

that means that you love Israel That means that you are doing what you can in this war for survival.

472

It means you're a patriot,

473

okay, but this has to be with religion So what the West has done is not only

474

Has it created a dating game where women can choose to have kids

475

But the Western world has also given up on religion and embraced materialism, right?

476

Okay, so what is valued in our world,

477

in the West, it's not patriotism or love of family or religious duty,

478

it's just how many Instagram followers you have, it's how many YouTube subscribers you have, it's how many, how much money you have okay that's all that matters

479

so given the current state of events it's very hard for the Western world

480

and really for China to survive next for next 50 years okay I

481

and I don't like well China's a billion people

482

so even though um you know we're only giving birth to 10 million kids a year

483

which will still around for a long long time okay

484

so at this rate by 2100 china will be at will

485

be at a population about 600 million that's still a lot of people man okay

486

here's the problem though okay this is south korea okay south korea is like the worst case scenario

487

and for south korea this is actually the best case scenario where okay given current trends

488

and let's let's pretend that nothing bad happens to South Korea.

489

Well, by the year 2100, you'll have a situation like this where the vast majority of people are over 65 and you have no kids, okay?

490

That is a zombie society where no one works and everyone just, I don't know, walks around the park every day.

491

No one works, so the economy has collapsed, okay?

492

So look at this trend where we are now in here, okay, where the majority, it's still a working population

493

which is good you need that for the economy

494

but by the time you hit 2040 okay you've got this huge dependency

495

and a creating population okay you guys see this where we are

496

and um so we're at 2020 right okay all right

497

so it's still not too bad

498

but by the time you hit 2040 look at this okay

499

look at this look at this where you have absolutely no kids and then you have lots and lots of retirees, okay?

500

And then, by then you hit 2060, oh my god, right?

501

Your population, your working population has decreased by half, by 50%, all right?

502

So, if things stay the same, if nothing happens, South Korea will be dead in,

503

I don't know, by 2150, okay, best case scenario.

504

But what we know from history is that society should not die naturally.

505

Eventually, South Korea will be forced into wars, economic crises, so this trend will just increase.

506

And so, if North Korea got past 2080, I'd be very surprised, okay?

507

I would be surprised by 2040, South Korea were to face collapse as a nation state,

508

because you need these people to work, but guess what, you also need them to fight wars.

509

So if North Korea ever threatened South Korea, most of your adult population would be dead.

510

So South Korea cannot fight a war now.

511

The prospects for South Korea is utterly hopeless.

512

There's nothing South Korea can do about this

513

because South Korea is an extremely materialistic society where the only

514

way to get ahead is by making a lot of money, okay?

515

And if you're a middle class person in South Korea, it makes no sense for you to have three kids.

516

It makes sense for you to have one kid

517

and put all your resources into this one kid in in the hopes that he passes the college examination, gets into a good university, and then gets a good job at Samsung,

518

which is the only company in South Korea, okay?

519

Samsung.

520

All right, so the situation is pretty dire in South Korea.

521

All right, okay, that's it for today.

522

Any questions, guys, about what we've learned?

523

Okay.

524

yeah speaking on mic please so so for the last graph that we talked about israel and

525

I've noticed that Saudi Arabia is also at not bad GDP per capita and fertility risk.

526

But for Saudi Arabia, maybe I'm wrong, stereotypically that they didn't receive much hate as Israel did.

527

So why did they at the similar position as Israel?

528

That's actually a really good question okay all right

529

so saudi arabia as you can see from this map has it's a very wealthy society

530

um and families have about four kids on average all right

531

so saudi arabia is actually an outlier and the reason why is

532

that it gets all the money from oil oil revenues okay so it sells with oil around the world.

533

What does it do?

534

It creates a welfare state using this oil.

535

So you're incentivized to have as many children as possible because the government will pay for it.

536

Free schooling, free health care, free housing, and then a guaranteed job.

537

So it's basically like socialism.

538

It's also a Muslim country, so you have this religious duty imperative to have as many children as possible.

539

But the problem with Saudi Arabia is the idea human capital where it is not really a modern society in

540

which people are well educated

541

and they're contributing to the economy okay Saudi Arabia just gets all its money from oil

542

and that's it it's trying to grow terrorism it's trying to develop its human capital

543

but it doesn't really work okay so if you're right in

544

that Saudi Arabia it is it seems to be doing well

545

but it's not really okay

546

but also like people will argue about Israel as well we're

547

like well Israel get all its money from the United States

548

and it's the American military that supports Israel that's true to certain extent

549

but I would argue that if I could go to Israel you will see

550

that as an open dynamic society in which you're allowed to ask questions

551

which you're allowed to criticize the government in

552

which you are given a lots of options for social mobility okay

553

so Israel has democracy it has

554

innovation okay it has technology okay and Saudi Arabia doesn't have these things

555

if you want to be a really strong nation then you

556

need innovation you need openness unique unique knowledge okay it's also really highly educated all right okay does

557

that make sense okay so Saudi Arabia it's really an outlier here all right

558

but the problem is what happens

559

if a seller runs out of oil right well there's a war in the Middle East

560

and Saudi Arabia is kind of screwed all right all right

561

but you can also argue no well you know Saudi Arabia it has a lot of money

562

and maybe okay so so game Game theory doesn't give us the answers.

563

Game theory, it just gives us a guide to ask questions and do research.

564

Okay?

565

Does that make sense?

566

Yeah?

567

I have a question about, like, when is this data?

568

It's wrote about 2009, right?

569

So how about now?

570

Did it change a lot?

571

Or like, is there anything change?

572

um okay okay yeah so you asked you asked about the sourcing of the data okay

573

and you're right in that there would be fluctuation okay

574

but the um but this is 2024 okay 2024 and this is Israel right here,

575

okay?

576

All right, so if it's red, it's above replacement.

577

All right, and if you just Google Israel population fertility rate,

578

Israel is the only wealthy nation in the world that has an above replacement fertility rate, okay?

579

All right.

580

Okay?

581

Any more questions, guys?

582

Alright, great.

583

So I will see you guys next class.

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議論や説明を明快に展開するスキルを鍛えることが目標です。特に、異なる理論を比較しながら自分の主張を述べる能力は、IELTS スピーキング対策にも欠かせません。このビデオでは、複数の概念を整理して伝える方法を学び、論理的な語り口を身につけることができます。

フレーズバンク

「~についての異なる理論があります」（There have been different theories as to ~）
「~の核心です」（that's the core of ~）
「~のための闘争です」（a struggle between ~ for ~）
「~の最善の方法です」（the best way to ~）
「~という議論をします」（my argument to you is that ~）

弱点を克服しよう

このビデオは、長文の説明でも一貫したリズムを保つ練習に最適です。特に、「shadow speech」（シャドースピーチ）の技術を使うことで、発音やイントネーションの問題を改善できます。話者の声に合わせて即座に繰り返すことで、英語のリズムを体感し、自然な発話スピードを身につけましょう。また、「sex」「genes」などの単語の発音は、母音の長さや子音の強弱に注意が必要です。これらのポイントを徹底的に練習することで、英語の発音を良くすることができます。

さらに、論点を整理する際の接続詞の使い方（「then」「so」など）も重要です。これらを正しく使うことで、話し手の意図が明確に伝わり、IELTS スピーキングのスコアアップにもつながります。

この動画の文法

話し手がよく使っている文型を、動画の実際の表現とともに紹介します。

文型	動画での表現
条件文 if + 節, will/would + 動詞 — 条件とその結果	If you want to know who will rule · if nothing happens, South Korea will be · if North Korea got past 2080, I'd be
現在完了形 have/has + 過去分詞 — 過去の出来事が今も関係している	have been · you've been · they've given
受動態 be + 過去分詞 — 誰がするかより、何が起きるかに焦点を当てる	is meant · are driven · are eliminated
関係詞節 who / which + 節 — 人や物について情報を加える	together which is · men who want · women who want

シャドーイングとは？英語上達に効果的な理由

シャドーイング（Shadowing）は、もともとプロの通訳者養成プログラムで開発された言語学習法で、多言語習得者として知られるDr. Alexander Arguelles によって広く普及されました。方法はシンプルですが非常に効果的：ネイティブスピーカーの英語を聞きながら、1〜2秒の遅延で声に出してすぐに繰り返す——まるで「影（shadow）」のように話者を追いかけます。文法ドリルや受動的なリスニングと異なり、シャドーイングは脳と口の筋肉が同時にリアルタイムで英語を処理・再現することを強制します。研究により、発音精度、抑揚、リズム、連音、リスニング力、そして会話の流暢さが大幅に向上することが確認されています。IELTSスピーキング対策や自然な英語コミュニケーションを目指す方に特におすすめです。

シャドーイングのやり方: ステップ別の完全ガイドを読む →

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シャドーイングとは？英語上達に効果的な理由