シャドーイング練習: The Inflation Problem... It's Worse Than You Think - 動画で英語スピーキングを学ぶ

Right now, everyone's blaming inflation on the Middle East.

That's the narrative we're being told and everyone's accepted it.

And it makes sense why.

It's easy to follow.

There's a clean cause and a clean effect.

It's so simple you can draw it on a napkin.

Except there's one problem with this story.

The Federal Reserve keeps its own inflation scoreboard.

They don't use the number you see in the headlines.

They target 2% inflation measured by personal consumption expenditures, the PCE.

That's the scoreboard that counts.

That's also where the mainstream story falls apart.

The conflict in the Middle East started in February, just five months ago, but the Federal Reserve's measure has now missed the inflation target for 63 months in a row,

more than five years straight.

The PCE currently sits at a little over 4%, more than double the Fed's target, and is continuing to climb,

so everyone's using a five-month-old story to diagnose a five-year-old problem.

And this isn't just a number that only matters to economists.

This single number lies at the foundation of every economic decision in the United States, And every rate you pay is priced off what people expect that number to be.

Your mortgage, your car loan, what your savings account pays you, what the cash in your wallet is worth next year.

So it's worth asking, what's actually going on?

Because there's clearly more to the inflation story.

Inflation in this country used to move like a pendulum.

It would swing up, swing back down, and eventually come to rest around that 2% number.

You never questioned it, because you never had to.

even had a name for this period of American history, the Great Moderation.

From 1985 to 2007, growth was steady, inflation was low, and the whole economy looked like it regulated itself.

Except it didn't.

There was no invisible hand.

There was a real one, someone standing beside the pendulum, giving it a firm push back toward the middle every single time it swung too far,

done so reliably for so long that everyone forgot the pendulum was being pushed at all.

That's what the last five years are actually about.

The thing doing the pushing is now the one in trouble.

But before we get there, we need to look closer at that 2% number itself.

For a number the entire financial system is anchored to, you'd assume it fell out of some impossibly complex math equation,

or it was carved in stone and passed down generations.

Well, neither.

Somebody chose it.

So why the 2%?

Here's St. Louis Federal Reserve economist Christopher Neely explaining how they landed on that 2% target number.

When central banks were considering what sort of an inflation rate to target,

they were really trading off the costs of having inflation with the benefits of having some upward movement in prices,

which might have benefits in terms of allowing central banks to stabilize the macroeconomy.

So 2% was kind of a happy medium.

So while the target number itself may have come from an arbitrary decision, there's still reasoning behind it.

But why not go lower?

Why not go to zero?

That's the obvious question.

If inflation's the thing quietly making everything more expensive, why aim for any of it at all?

Because while on paper, a zero percent inflation rate sounds great, in reality, it's not.

When a recession hits, the Fed's main move is to cut interest rates.

In a world with zero inflation, rates already sit near the floor.

So the second a real economic downturn arrives, the Fed gets one cut, maybe two, and then slams into zero, structurally trapped and out of road.

That's how an ordinary recession can spiral into a decade-long depression.

But you can't aim too high either.

Push it to 4%, and prices double every 18 years.

Businesses can't forecast their cost, and nobody can price a long-term contract without guessing.

So 2% is that Goldilocks number, high enough to keep a cushion between the economy and catastrophe, low enough that you barely notice it on an ordinary Tuesday.

But actually hitting that number, year after year, is close to impossible.

It takes a balancing act so unforgiving, it would make Evel Knievel sweat.

And for the last few decades, the Fed made this balancing act look effortless.

We're just now finding out how easy it was, now that things have changed.

But before I get into that, a quick pause.

Because we've been talking about the big picture trends shaping the economy, but let's take a look at something much closer to home.

Your cell phone carrier.

For most traditional carriers, your data is the real business, and your data usually ends up in one of two places, either packaged up and sold to the highest bidder, or exposed in a data breach.

Which brings us to today's sponsor, CAPE.

CAPE does the opposite.

CAPE is America's privacy-first mobile carrier.

You get the same premium, reliable cell service you'd expect from any other carrier, except privacy Security and security are now included.

It starts when you sign up.

CAPE won't ask for your name, your social security number, or your address.

They only collect what's necessary to connect you.

Then comes the data your phone creates just by using it, like who you call and text.

While traditional carriers hoard this data for years, CAPE deletes that information after just 24 hours.

But that's not all.

There's also your phone number.

It's one of the most sensitive pieces of information about you, yet you're constantly forced to hand it out.

With CAPE's new secondary numbers feature, you get two additional encrypted phone numbers included in your plan, perfect for sign-ups, online shopping, and account verification.

CAPE lets you stay connected without having to compromise your privacy.

If you're interested in checking out CAPE, you can get 33% off your first six months using the link below.

Promo code CASUAL33.

Thank you to CAPE for sponsoring this video.

Now back to the Federal Reserve's World Class Balancing Act.

For the last few decades, we managed to control inflation.

The walk towards the 2% target looked effortless.

But it only looked effortless because the tightrope was 6 inches off the ground.

And the only reason we know that is because we've seen what the same walk looks like 60 feet up.

But I'm trying to be a more positive guy these days.

So before I show you the ugly, let me show you the good part.

Back when the Feds still had room to work with.

Let's rewind to the late 70s.

Inflation wasn't drifting anymore.

It was sprinting.

It peaked at over 13.5%.

At that pace, prices double in about nine years.

The dollar in your pocket was rotting while you held it, and every single person could feel it happening.

So who do you call when inflation is out of control?

No. Not Ghostbusters.

You call 6'7", cigar-smoking Paul Volcker, the kind of man who looks like he eats recessions for breakfast.

100

Volcker takes over as Fed chair in 1979 and does the one thing nobody else had the stomach for.

101

He drives interest rates to 20%.

102

He deliberately triggers not one recession, but two, back to back, strangling the money supply until inflation has nothing left to feed on.

103

It was so aggressive, it earned a name of its own, the Volcker Shock.

104

And it worked.

105

Inflation went from over 13.5% down to bottoming out under 2% in the late 80s.

106

So take a look at the timeline.

107

From 1980 to 1983, Volcker tightens monetary policy aggressively, triggers two back to back recessions and successfully drops inflation by more than 10 points.

108

Two years later, the United States enters the Great Moderation Era, a 23-year-long period defined by steady growth and historically low economic volatility.

109

Which raises the obvious question, the one probably forming in your head right now, if it worked for Volcker, why can't the Fed just run the same playbook again today?

110

It's because he had one advantage nobody talks about, the country could absorb the damage.

111

When Volcker first claimed the throne, the national debt was about a quarter the size of the economy.

112

By today's standards, pretty much nothing.

113

So when he drove rates to 20%, it was brutal, but it was clean.

114

Raising rates did the one thing he intended it to do, slam the brakes.

115

But that world is gone.

116

The national debt is now sitting around 100% of GDP, a one-to-one match with the entire economy.

117

The last time it was this high was the Second World War, but the number is only half of it.

118

The other half is what the number does.

119

When the Fed raises rates now, it presses down in two places at once.

120

The first is the breaks.

121

Higher rates, pricier loans, less borrowing and a slower economy.

122

Simple.

123

The second is hidden underneath and quietly emerges by accident.

124

Higher rates also mean the government pays more interest on what it already owes.

125

And that bill is not small.

126

Net interest is running around a trillion dollars a year, more than the entire military budget.

127

In 2021, interest ate about 9% of every dollar the federal government collected.

128

This year, it's 19%.

129

But those interest payments don't just vanish from the economy.

130

It lands in the hands of the pension funds, banks, foreign governments, and other investors who lent the US government money in the first place.

131

So every time the Fed raises rates to cool the economy down, it also raises the size of the check that gets written and paid out, which then gets spent, lended out,

132

or rolled into the next bond at the new higher rate.

133

Which basically means the same move that's supposed to pull money out of the economy starts quietly sending it back in.

134

So one foot presses the brake, the other one quietly presses the gas.

135

And the heavier the debt, the harder that second foot pushes.

136

At 25% of GDP, you barely feel it.

137

At 100%, both pedals are floored and the brake is wired to the accelerator.

138

Two economists saw this danger coming in 1981.

139

Thomas Sargent and Neil Wallace predicted it in one of the most influential macroeconomic papers of the last 50 years.

140

While the title doesn't exactly scream page turner, and it's not exactly the easiest read.

141

In fact, I'd probably rather watch paint dry than read through it a second time.

142

The stuff inside it is very interesting.

143

They warn that if the government never runs a surplus, the central bank can't make the debt smaller.

144

All it gets to decide is what form the debt takes, bonds or cash.

145

Those are the two options.

146

So when the Fed fights inflation, it's squeezing the cash side, which means the bond side has to grow to make up the difference.

147

And bonds pay interest.

148

So the longer the Fed holds the line, the faster that pile of debt compounds.

149

So the tightening that brings inflation down today is the same thing that forces somebody to print later.

150

Meaning the Fed isn't actually addressing the root of the problem.

151

They're not actually fighting the inflation, they're just postponing it.

152

And if you think this is just some doomer theory from 1981 with no bearing on today, well guess what?

153

A few weeks ago the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh launched five new task forces to tackle different economic problems.

154

One of them is an inflation frameworks task force to reassess how the Fed measures, understands, and responds to structural drivers of inflation.

155

Three people were picked to lead this team.

156

One of them is Thomas Sargent.

157

The man who co-wrote the paper from 45 years ago is

158

now being asked by the Fed to lead a team tackling the inflation issues.

159

So inflation is clearly a concern for the Federal Reserve.

160

But when you step outside and look around, it's quiet.

161

Gas got cheaper last month.

162

The headlines said cooling, you might even think this whole thing already sorted itself out.

163

But the thing people forget is the ground is always the last thing to shake.

164

By the time you feel an earthquake under your feet, the fault lines slipped a while ago and the impact's already on its way to you.

165

The inflation numbers you see in the headlines are that ground.

166

They move last.

167

Housing is the clearest example.

168

It's more than 35% of the entire basket the headline number is built on, and it's the slowest moving piece in it, because rents lock in for a year and reset in steps.

169

So a big chunk of today's reading is measuring pressure that was released months ago.

170

When the headlines say everything's calm, it's telling you the ground held.

171

Yesterday.

172

Waiting on the inflation number means finding out last.

173

You need to work backwards to get to the truth.

174

When you strip everything away, inflation is one thing, price is going up.

175

But a price only goes up if somebody actually pays the higher one.

176

And nobody pays more without having more to pay with.

177

So the money moves first.

178

Every time.

179

And there's a number that measures exactly that.

180

It's called M2.

181

It's one of the main ways economists measure how much money is sloshing around the system.

182

Think of it as all the cash within arm's reach of the economy.

183

After 2020, the line goes pretty much vertical.

184

The M2 money supply is currently growing at over 5.5% a year, the fastest pace since July 2022.

185

But money doesn't reappear on its own, somebody has to put it there.

186

So if inflation's the enemy, who exactly is quietly pumping fresh dollars back into the system?

187

The answer's the Federal Reserve.

188

To see how, you need to understand the least understood tool the Fed owns.

189

Forget interest rates for a second.

190

There's a second lever.

191

This one's hidden in the back of Jerome Powell's closet, and it only comes out in case of an emergency.

192

It's a literal money printer.

193

When the economy's dying, like in 2020, the Fed creates money out of thin air and uses it to buy bonds, pushing that new money into the system to keep it alive.

194

That flood of new money is called quantitative easing, and in the pandemic, they ran it harder than at any point in history.

195

The Fed's balance sheet went from around $4 trillion to nearly $9 trillion in about two years, leading to inflation spiking to over 9% in June 2022.

196

But when inflation caught fire, the Fed was forced to do something they've only done twice in its more than 100-year history.

197

They ran the money printer in reverse.

198

Instead of creating money to buy bonds, the Fed let the bonds it already held expire and didn't replace them.

199

Every month, a little less money in the system than the month before.

200

This policy is called quantitative tightening, and it started in June of 2022.

201

Over the next three and a half years, the Fed took more than $2.2 trillion off its balance sheet.

202

It worked well enough that the money supply itself contracted, which sounds minor, but it's not.

203

The last time the amount of money in the American economy meaningfully shrank was the Great Depression.

204

But you also can't tighten forever.

205

The United States financial system needs a certain amount of cash just sitting in it to function day to day, and if you drain past that line, things start breaking.

206

So on December 1st of last year, the Fed announced quantitative tightening was over.

207

They'd successfully taken out about half of the more than $5 trillion that was injected in the financial system during the pandemic.

208

But then Jerome Powell snuck back out of the closet and turned the engine back on.

209

Eleven days later, on December 12th, the Fed started buying bonds again, around $40 billion a month.

210

The balance sheet it spent three and a half years draining is now refilling.

211

So all this leaves us with a country running two very different stories at the same time.

212

The first one shows up in the monthly reports, the headline numbers.

213

That's the story everybody argues about, and you get a new story every 30 days.

214

The second runs underneath all of it, the structural stuff.

215

The Congressional Budget Office now estimates the deficit for this fiscal year will reach $1.4 trillion.

216

That's 5.8% of the entire economy and far above the previous 50-year average of 3.8%.

217

The total national debt is closing in on $40 trillion, and the interest we pay on that debt is now over a trillion dollars a year.

218

In 2021, interest ate about 9 cents out of every dollar the federal government collected.

219

This year it's 19.

220

It more than doubled in five years.

221

Interest is now the third largest line in the entire federal budget.

222

We spend more on it than we spend on the entire military.

223

The debt snowball is playing out exactly as Thomas Sargent and Neil Wallace warned.

224

So how do we actually fix this mess?

225

The best answer I've seen comes from the golden boy of the finance world, Warren Buffett.

226

He was asked how he would deal with the deficit.

227

Here's what he said.

228

I get in the deficit in five minutes.

229

How?

230

You just pass a law that says that anytime there's a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.

231

Now you've got the incentives in the right place, right?

232

So it's capable of being done.

233

A law that bars every sitting member of Congress from re-election anytime the deficit runs past 3% of GDP.

234

He was laughing when he said it, but he's also completely right.

235

We have an incentives problem.

236

It's not just a problem on the left, or just a problem on the right.

237

It's an American problem.

238

Both parties do it.

239

Think about how somebody actually gets a job in Congress.

240

They campaign on promises, telling you they'll do this and that, because that's what wins.

241

Nobody builds a career in Congress promising people less, so the incentives only point one direction, spending more.

242

Which is how the national deficit has run past 3% of GDP for pretty much the entire 21st century.

243

It hasn't just been an expensive couple of years, it's structural spending.

244

We've been spending more than we bring in for a quarter of a century straight.

245

The problem with going down this path is, it compounds.

246

The more we borrow, the more interest we owe.

247

The more interest we owe, the more we have to borrow.

248

It's a never-ending, repeating cycle.

249

We're on an unsustainable path that will eventually have to come to an end.

250

And every year we put this off, the bill to deal with it just gets bigger.

251

I'm curious to hear where other people land on this.

252

Is this something we need to deal with now, or are people crashing out over nothing?

253

Drop a comment and let me know.

254

I'll be reading through them.

255

Maybe Buffett's plan is too extreme.

256

Or maybe it isn't extreme enough.

257

We can argue about the right solution all day, but what we can't argue about is that this doesn't fix itself.

258

Something eventually has to change.

📺 同じチャンネル

✨ おすすめ動画

107 文

Why can’t prices just stay the same?

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

111 文

The fuse has been lit

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

24 文

The Economics of Happiness - Trailer

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

186 文

How America Got So Good At Buying Sh*t

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

158 文

🚨Trump WANTS FOX OFF THE AIR after They SHOWED THIS!

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

58 文

Great Moments in Unintended Consequences: Obscenity Blocks, Cooking Oil, DC's Tipped Wage (Vol. 19)

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

247 文

English Listening Practice - Inflation

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

31 文

Why Small Luxuries Thrive During Recessions (The Lipstick Effect)

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

222 文

How the Worst Oil Crisis in History is Backfiring

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

197 文

Why Trillions of Foreign Aid Hasn’t Solved Poverty

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

このレッスンの語彙とスピーキングのポイント

このB2レベルのスピーキングレッスンは、動画「The Inflation Problem... It's Worse Than You Think」を教材にしています。繰り返し出てくる語は次のとおりです：inflation, Fed, rate, interest。この動画には、シャドーイング用の文が258文、単語が3195語あります。音声の長さは16:44です。話す速さは速く、1分あたり約191語です。音のつながりや弱く発音される音が多くなります。単語の84%は英語の頻出3,000語に含まれます。残りは練習の前に確認しておきましょう。

この動画の重要語彙

動画の中で特に難しい単語15語を、発音と意味つきで紹介します。

単語	発音	意味
inflation 名詞	/ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/	インフレ, インフレーション
headline 名詞	/ˈhɛd.laɪn/	見出し, 標題
deficit 名詞	/ˈdɛfəsɪt/	赤字, 欠損
recession 名詞	/ɹɪˈsɛʃn̩/	退去, 衰退
quietly 副詞	/ˈkwaɪ.ɪt.li/	静かに
economist 名詞	/iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/	経済学者, エコノミスト
pendulum 名詞	/ˈpɛnd͡ʒələm/	振り子
incentive 名詞	/ɪnˈsɛntɪv/	動機, 誘因
scoreboard 名詞		スコアボード, 得点板
printer 名詞	/ˈpɹɪntɚ/	印刷者
borrow 動詞	/ˈbɑɹ.oʊ/	借りる
warn 動詞	/woɹn/	警告する, 言い聞かせる
slam 動詞	/ˈslæm/	ばたんと閉める
compound 名詞	/ˈkɑmpaʊnd/	化合物
anytime 副詞		いつでも

動画に出てくる句動詞

単語	意味
find out 動詞	見出す, 調べる
go up 動詞	上がる, 登る
check out 動詞	試験する, 検査する
get off 動詞	降りる
go down 動詞	降りる, 降下する
look around 動詞	見回す
take over 動詞	引き受ける

繰り返し練習したい文

動画に出てくる短く完結した文です。日常会話でそのまま使えます。

They only collect what's necessary to connect you.
There's also your phone number.
I'll be reading through them.

この動画の文法

話し手がよく使っている文型を、動画の実際の表現とともに紹介します。

文型	動画での表現
現在完了進行形 have/has been + -ing — 以前に始まり今も続いている動作	we've been talking · We've been spending
受動態 be + 過去分詞 — 誰がするかより、何が起きるかに焦点を当てる	being told · is priced · being pushed
現在完了形 have/has + 過去分詞 — 過去の出来事が今も関係している	has now missed · have changed · we've seen
関係詞節 who / which + 節 — 人や物について情報を加える	man who looks · side, which means · man who co

注意したい発音

話し手はcan't, doesn't, isn'tなど、短縮形や弱形を40回使っています。聞こえたとおりの短い形で発音しましょう。

「th」の音: underneath /ˌʌndɚˈniθ/, throne /θɹəʊ̯n/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, earthquake /ˈɝθkweɪk/
「sh」と「zh」の音: inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, recession /ɹɪˈsɛʃn̩/, structural /ˈstɹʌk(t͡)ʃəɹəl/, cushion /ˈkʊʃən/, verification /ˌvɛ.ɹə.fɪˈkeɪ.ʃən/
長い単語（アクセントの位置に注意）: economist /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/, quantitative /ˈkwɑn.təˌteɪ.tɪv/, accelerator /əkˈsɛl.əˌɹeɪ.tɚ/, catastrophe /kəˈtæstɹəfi/, verification /ˌvɛ.ɹə.fɪˈkeɪ.ʃən/

日本語話者が苦手な音：

/r/ と /l/ の区別 — /l/ は舌先を歯茎につけ、/r/ はどこにもつけない: effortless /ˈɛfə(ɹ)tlɪs/, structural /ˈstɹʌk(t͡)ʃəɹəl/, accelerator /əkˈsɛl.əˌɹeɪ.tɚ/, literal /ˈlɪt(ə)ɹəl/, spiral /ˈspaɪɹəl/
/v/ — /b/ にならないように、上の歯を下唇に当てる: quantitative /ˈkwɑn.təˌteɪ.tɪv/, incentive /ɪnˈsɛntɪv/, lever /ˈliː.və/, verification /ˌvɛ.ɹə.fɪˈkeɪ.ʃən/, investor /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/
/f/ — 「フ」ではなく、上の歯と下唇で出す: inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, deficit /ˈdɛfəsɪt/, effortless /ˈɛfə(ɹ)tlɪs/, catastrophe /kəˈtæstɹəfi/, verification /ˌvɛ.ɹə.fɪˈkeɪ.ʃən/

この動画での練習方法

まず声を出さずに動画を最後まで聞き、知らない単語をメモします。
まず0.75倍速で一文ずつシャドーイングし、慣れてきたら通常の速度に戻します。
自分の声を録音して元の音声と比べます。inflation, headline, deficitなどの単語に特に注意しましょう。

シャドーイングとは？英語上達に効果的な理由

シャドーイング（Shadowing）は、もともとプロの通訳者養成プログラムで開発された言語学習法で、多言語習得者として知られるDr. Alexander Arguelles によって広く普及されました。方法はシンプルですが非常に効果的：ネイティブスピーカーの英語を聞きながら、1〜2秒の遅延で声に出してすぐに繰り返す——まるで「影（shadow）」のように話者を追いかけます。文法ドリルや受動的なリスニングと異なり、シャドーイングは脳と口の筋肉が同時にリアルタイムで英語を処理・再現することを強制します。研究により、発音精度、抑揚、リズム、連音、リスニング力、そして会話の流暢さが大幅に向上することが確認されています。IELTSスピーキング対策や自然な英語コミュニケーションを目指す方に特におすすめです。

シャドーイングのやり方: ステップ別の完全ガイドを読む →

シャドーイング練習: The Inflation Problem... It's Worse Than You Think - 動画で英語スピーキングを学ぶ

The Stock Market Is Being Used as a Dumping Ground

To Save the Economy... We’re About to Break It

The $2.5 Trillion Credit Wave Nobody Sees Coming

it’s boring, but it’s what bursts the ai bubble

if war bad... why stocks go up?

The World's Safest Market Is Breaking

The Recession's Already Here… Open Your Eyes

The New American Housing Crisis Has Landed

The Stock Market is BROKEN (just accept it)

America Is Walking Into a Debt Spiral It Can't Stop

Something Feels Off About 2026...

The AI Bubble Survives on $1.65 Trillion in Hidden Debt

Bitcoin Is a Brilliant Scam and I Can Prove It (Again)

Private Credit: The Secret Industry Taking Over Wall Street

Every Type of Investor Explained in 6 Minutes

Why The Dumbest Investors Win (it's not why you think)

Crypto Is a Brilliant Scam and I Can Prove It

The 1973 Stock Market Crash that Nobody Remembers

The (Inevitable) United States Debt Crisis

The AI Bubble… We Need to Talk

Why can’t prices just stay the same?

The fuse has been lit

The Economics of Happiness - Trailer

How America Got So Good At Buying Sh*t

🚨Trump WANTS FOX OFF THE AIR after They SHOWED THIS!

Great Moments in Unintended Consequences: Obscenity Blocks, Cooking Oil, DC's Tipped Wage (Vol. 19)

English Listening Practice - Inflation

Why Small Luxuries Thrive During Recessions (The Lipstick Effect)

How the Worst Oil Crisis in History is Backfiring

Why Trillions of Foreign Aid Hasn’t Solved Poverty

このレッスンの語彙とスピーキングのポイント

この動画の重要語彙

動画に出てくる句動詞

繰り返し練習したい文

この動画の文法

注意したい発音

この動画での練習方法

シャドーイングとは？英語上達に効果的な理由