Shadowing Practice: if war bad... why stocks go up? - Learn English Speaking with Video
Les maken...
1
On April 7th, at 5 :32pm, Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran.
2
And from this announcement, we learned two things: First, Truth Social is the single greatest invention of our generation,
3
and is totally not a useless social media platform.
4
And second, markets don't like uncertainty.
5
Because the very next day after the announcement, the markets ripped.
6
The S &P closed up 2 .5%, the Nasdaq almost 3%, and the Dow climbed more than 1 ,300 points, year.
7
But it didn't just stop there.
8
Because a few weeks later, stocks were back at record highs, even as the ceasefire was actively falling apart in real time.
9
Traditional financial media was calling this a relief rally, that the markets were celebrating peace.
10
But the truth is, that's not what this was.
11
This was something else entirely.
12
But to understand what actually happened, why markets can be at all -time highs when there's a war going on, you first need to understand what Wall Street looked like going into this.
13
Because there's a lot more to this story than just a relief rally.
14
On February 28th, the US and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran.
15
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed.
16
Then Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
17
And the market had its worst five -week losing streak in nearly four years.
18
The S &P was down nearly 9 % by the end of March.
19
And while your retirement account was quietly screaming, there was something else happening underneath the surface.
20
Wall Street was beginning to panic.
21
Hedge funds didn't just start repositioning.
22
at the fastest pace in 13 years.
23
And that's not a loose estimate.
24
That's hard data.
25
Because Goldman Sachs had a front row seat to the show.
26
They run what's called a prime brokerage desk, which services most of the major hedge funds on Wall Street, which means they see what these hedge funds are buying,
27
what they're selling, and just how leveraged they are.
28
And according to Goldman's own numbers, Q1 hedge fund selling in North America was the largest since April 2020.
29
Gross leverage was And short exposure to macro ETFs like SPY and QQQ hit the highest level since the pandemic.
30
And then on March 19th, commodity analyst Rory Johnston said this.
31
If you think about some kind of massive detonation in the oil market supply chain in the Middle East, and there's this shockwave that's kind of moving out, this shock is too large for the system to handle,
32
and it will begin to creak and break the longer this goes on.
33
Just how many barrels per day were those disruptions, you know, the squeeze of 2008, and how big is this in comparison?
34
It's bigger than anything in history.
35
to speak with people again that are I respect people that are not alarmist people that make fun of the alarmists
36
They're all terrified.
37
Let's say the East -West pipeline is maxed.
38
There's no issues at Yanbu.
39
The Houthis don't get involved, etc., etc. In that scenario, with the strait remaining closed, we still need to shed 15 million barrels a day of global demand.
40
And that just means prices, yeah.
41
$250, $300 a barrel Brent.
42
Like, we will hit all -time highs in that scenario on an inflation -adjusted basis.
43
almost guaranteed, almost by necessity.
44
So I do think in that scenario, again, recession is too light a term.
45
We're talking depressionary.
46
Fast forward six weeks later, and this might be the funniest take of the year.
47
We'll come back to why in a second.
48
But at this point, the sentiment on the street was pretty clear.
49
Everyone was bearish.
50
Then, on the evening of April 7th, Trump announced the ceasefire.
51
And when the markets opened the next morning, it was like someone turned Jerome Powell's money printer back on.
52
Because over 400 names in the S &P finished green, 13 stocks printed all -time highs, Brent crude dropped around 13 .5%, and WTI crude fell over 16%.
53
marking the biggest single day decline since April 2020.
54
But here's where the mainstream explanation for all of this starts to break.
55
According to maritime intelligence firm Windward, who utilizes AI to cross -reference digital GPS signals with satellite radar and imagery,
56
only five outbound carriers were actually detected moving through the strait by midday.
57
This is a roughly 96 % decrease in activity compared to
58
the pre -war baseline of around 130 daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
59
So something's not adding up.
60
How can there be a relief rally based on world peace, if there's actually no world peace?
61
Which raises the question, what really moved the markets?
62
And the answer is, a good old -fashioned short squeeze.
63
And I can prove it.
64
But for this to make sense, we first need to explain the underlying mechanics of a short squeeze.
65
Because when you short a stock, you're borrowing shares from someone and selling them.
66
You're betting the price drops so you can buy them back cheaper at a later date, return them, and profit the spread.
67
But if the price goes up instead, you're f*ed because you still have to return those shares you borrowed, which means you have to buy them back at a higher price than you sold them at.
68
And if the price keeps rising, your losses keep you either add more money to your account, or you close the position immediately.
69
And when enough people get margin calls at the same time, they all have to buy back their shares.
70
That buying pushes the price up, which triggers more margin calls, which triggers more buying.
71
And that's a short squeeze.
72
And on April 8th, when the macro short exposure was at the highest level since 2020, the squeeze began.
73
But the squeeze was only the first domino to fall, because once stocks started ripping, the algorithms kicked in.
74
And this is where the CTAs,
75
or Commodity Trading enter the story.
76
Thank you.
77
These are systematic trading firms that run on rules -based models.
78
They don't care about news.
79
They don't care about geopolitics.
80
They just follow trends.
81
When the trend is down, their algorithms say "short." When the trend is up, their algorithms say "long." It's mechanical trading.
82
Goldman reported that CTAs were sitting on about a 30 billion net short position, going into the ceasefire.
83
But the second the S &P crossed certain trigger levels, these models flipped.
84
And they didn't flip to neutral.
85
They flipped to go long.
86
these CTAs would need to buy back around $40 billion of equities to exit their short positions.
87
But the actual number ended up being $86 billion, across just five trading sessions, which, according to Goldman's records,
88
is a top five buying speed print of all time.
89
And then there was the third domino to fall, the options market.
90
Dealers on the other side of options trades have to stay delta neutral, which means when customers pile into calls, dealers hedge by buying the underlying stock.
91
And SpotGamma, a leading financial data platform, had flagged a negative gamma regime heading into the ceasefire.
92
That's the regime where dealer hedging flips from stabilizing to pro -cyclical.
93
Price goes up, dealers buy more, price goes up more.
94
You get the point.
95
So a squeeze, plus a systematic flip, plus dealer hedging.
96
Three dominoes, all falling one after another.
97
the rally.
98
That's what we saw.
99
And here's the funny thing: this isn't the first time we've watched this movie.
100
It's a very similar pattern that has played out again and again over the last decade.
101
Because go back to December 2018, stocks had been crashing for months on fears of a rate hike.
102
Then Jerome Powell goes on stage and says one word: "Patient." And the Dow explodes.
103
It was the first time the Dow had ever gained more than a thousand points
104
hiked rates for the first time in 17 years.
105
The yen carry trade began to unwind, which I've made a video about.
106
Then the nikki drops 12 % in a day, then bounces 10 % the next.
107
These are all different catalysts but the same mechanisms.
108
And the reason this keeps happening is that the structure of the stock market itself has changed.
109
20 years ago, the market was dominated by humans.
110
Portfolio managers reading earnings reports, analysts modeling cash flows, people making discretionary decisions about what companies were actually But now,
111
that market is basically gone.
112
Today, 63 % of all US stock funds are now held by passive indexers.
113
That's more than $13 trillion of "blind money" that doesn't read earnings reports or care if Apple had a good quarter.
114
It just follows the index on autopilot.
115
And because most passive funds are market cap weighted, the bigger a company gets, the more of it they buy,
116
which is how the Magnificent Seven now makes up over 33 % of the S &P 500.
117
So a massive chunk of the market isn't being priced out anymore.
118
It's receiving allocation on default.
119
And what's left of the active investing side has also changed.
120
The hedge fund industry has consolidated into a handful of giant multi -strategy funds that dominate the industry.
121
The Millenniums, the Citadels, and the .72s of the world.
122
And their assets under management have grown exponentially over the last decade.
123
These funds typically run at 4 to 8 times leverage with strict drawdown rules, which means when they hit a drawdown limit,
124
or whether the war is really over, they sell immediately.
125
And underneath all of this is the options market.
126
Because now, same -day expiration options make up around 63 % of all SPX trading.
127
On peak days, we're seeing over $2 trillion of notional value change hands in a single trading session.
128
Every one of those options forces a dealer on the other side to hedge in real time, which leads to buying or selling the underlying stock to keep their books balanced.
129
So the dominant players in 2026 aren't analyzing valuations or fundamentals.
130
They're reacting.
131
And when price moves, their what happened on April 8th.
132
Once you understand this, once you understand the mechanics behind why markets are irrational, everything starts to make a little more sense.
133
So if you're tired of watching traditional financial media hand you the dumbed down version of what's happening in markets, hit subscribe.
134
Because this is the stuff they conveniently forget to cover.
135
Because the stock market we all used to know and love, the one about finding undervalued companies and investing in them for the long term,
136
that stock market feedback loop of algorithms, passive funds, and options dealers all reacting to each other in real time.
137
And the headlines?
138
Well, they're just the narratives people use to help rationalize things.
📺 Zelfde Kanaal
C13
The Stock Market Is Being Used as a Dumping Ground
C12
To Save the Economy... We’re About to Break It
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
The $2.5 Trillion Credit Wave Nobody Sees Coming
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B22
it’s boring, but it’s what bursts the ai bubble
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B23
The World's Safest Market Is Breaking
IELTS PrepBusiness EnglishUniversity Students
B22
The Recession's Already Here… Open Your Eyes
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B25
The New American Housing Crisis Has Landed
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B23
The Stock Market is BROKEN (just accept it)
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C112
America Is Walking Into a Debt Spiral It Can't Stop
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
Something Feels Off About 2026...
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C111
The AI Bubble Survives on $1.65 Trillion in Hidden Debt
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
Bitcoin Is a Brilliant Scam and I Can Prove It (Again)
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B23
Private Credit: The Secret Industry Taking Over Wall Street
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B21
Every Type of Investor Explained in 6 Minutes
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B23
Why The Dumbest Investors Win (it's not why you think)
Business EnglishWorking Adults
B23
The Inflation Problem... It's Worse Than You Think
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
Crypto Is a Brilliant Scam and I Can Prove It
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B24
The 1973 Stock Market Crash that Nobody Remembers
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B24
The (Inevitable) United States Debt Crisis
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
C14
The AI Bubble… We Need to Talk
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
✨ Aanbevolen Video
C11
159 zinnen
Untangling Signals of Market Stress
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B2160 zinnen
Why the US is Losing the Infrastructure War
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B2227 zinnen
Breaking Iran War Update - Massive Explosions Reported As Iran Prepares For US Nuclear Attack
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B24
283 zinnen
Warren Buffett Is Selling NOW. The $397 Billion COLLAPSE.
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
233 zinnen
Metal Gear Rising - Raiden & Armstrong Legendary Dialogue (no gameplay)
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B2254 zinnen
Trump PANICS As US Military RUNS OUT OF MONEY!! | The Kyle Kulinski Show
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
268 zinnen
Trump’s Canada Tariffs Are Backfiring in Red States | The Week
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
279 zinnen
White House holds briefing as Iran tensions fuel fears of wider conflict
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
81 zinnen
How A Single Shell Company Drained $1.6 Billion From The Pentagon
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B2466 zinnen
The oil apocalypse is here
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
Woordenschat en spreektips bij deze les
Deze spreekles op niveau B2 is gebaseerd op de video “if war bad... why stocks go up?”. Deze woorden komen het vaakst terug: stock, fund, price, hedge, squeeze. Deze video bevat 138 zinnen en 1753 woorden om na te spreken. Het gesproken deel duurt 10:03. De spreker praat in een natuurlijk tempo van ongeveer 174 woorden per minuut, dicht bij een alledaags gesprek. Slechts 80% van de woorden hoort bij de 3.000 meest gebruikte Engelse woorden, dus de woordenschat is pittig.
Belangrijke woorden in deze video
De 15 moeilijkste woorden uit de video, met uitspraak en betekenis:
| Woord | Uitspraak | Betekenis |
|---|---|---|
| hedge zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈhɛd͡ʒ/ | haag |
| squeeze werkwoord | /skwiːz/ | drukken, klemmen |
| dealer zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈdiːlə(ɹ)/ | dealer |
| ceasefire zelfstandig naamwoord | staakt-het-vuren, wapenstilstand | |
| strait zelfstandig naamwoord | /stɹeɪt/ | zeestraat, straat |
| algorithm zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/ | algoritme |
| leverage zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈlɛv.(ə.)ɹɪd͡ʒ/ | hefboom, hefboomkracht |
| passive bijvoeglijk naamwoord | /ˈpæs.ɪv/ | passief |
| underlying bijvoeglijk naamwoord | onderliggend | |
| barrel zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈbæɹəl/ | ton, vat |
| scenario zelfstandig naamwoord | /sɪˈnɛəɹioʊ/ | scenario |
| macroeconomics zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˌmæk.ɹoʊˌiː.kəˈnɒ.mɪks/ | macro-economie |
| mechanic zelfstandig naamwoord | /mɪˈkænɪk/ | mecanicien, werktuigkundige |
| commodity zelfstandig naamwoord | /kəˈmɑdəti/ | waar, goederen |
| systematic bijvoeglijk naamwoord | /ˌsɪs.tɪˈmæt.ɪk/ | stelselmatig, systematisch |
Phrasal verbs die je zult horen
| Woord | Betekenis |
|---|---|
| end up werkwoord | belanden, terechtkomen |
| fall over werkwoord | omvallen |
| shut down werkwoord | afsluiten, uitzetten |
Grammatica in deze video
De structuren die de spreker het meest gebruikt, met de exacte woorden uit de video:
| Structuur | In de video |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + voltooid deelwoord — iets uit het verleden dat nu nog telt | we've watched · has played · I've made |
| Lijdende vorm be + voltooid deelwoord — het gaat om wat er gebeurt, niet om wie het doet | was killed · is maxed · were actually detected |
| Betrekkelijke bijzinnen who / which + zin — extra informatie over een persoon of ding | Street, which means · borrowed, which means · neutral, which means |
Uitspraak om op te letten
De spreker gebruikt 24 samentrekkingen en verkorte vormen, zoals don't, they're, you're. Spreek ze kort uit, zoals je ze hoort.
- De “th”-klanken: algorithm /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/, underneath /ˌʌndɚˈniθ/
- De klanken “sh” en “zh”: detonation /dɛtəˈneɪʃən/, discretionary /dɪsˈkɹɛʃəˌnɛɹi/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, exponentially /ɛkspə(ʊ)ˈnɛnʃəli/, notional /ˈnoʊʃənəl/
- Lange woorden — let op de klemtoon: macroeconomics /ˌmæk.ɹoʊˌiː.kəˈnɒ.mɪks/, commodity /kəˈmɑdəti/, systematic /ˌsɪs.tɪˈmæt.ɪk/, autopilot /ˈɔtoʊˌpaɪlət/, consolidate /kənˈsɒl.ɪ.deɪt/
Klanken die Nederlandstaligen lastig vinden:
- Stemhebbende eindmedeklinker — /b/, /d/, /g/, /z/, /v/ niet verscherpen: hedge /ˈhɛd͡ʒ/, squeeze /skwiːz/, leverage /ˈlɛv.(ə.)ɹɪd͡ʒ/, passive /ˈpæs.ɪv/, crude /kɹuːd/
- /æ/ — opener dan de Nederlandse “e”: algorithm /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/, passive /ˈpæs.ɪv/, barrel /ˈbæɹəl/, macroeconomics /ˌmæk.ɹoʊˌiː.kəˈnɒ.mɪks/, mechanic /mɪˈkænɪk/
- /g/ — een harde plofklank, geen Nederlandse “g”: algorithm /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/, gamma /ˈɡæ.mə/
Zo oefen je met deze video
- Luister de hele video één keer zonder te spreken en noteer de woorden die je niet kent.
- Begin op 0,75× snelheid, spreek zin voor zin na en ga terug naar normale snelheid zodra het makkelijk gaat.
- Neem jezelf op en vergelijk met het origineel; let daarbij op woorden als hedge, squeeze, dealer.
Wat is de Shadowing-techniek?
Shadowing is een wetenschappelijk onderbouwde taalleermethode die oorspronkelijk is ontwikkeld voor professionele tolkentraining en gepopulariseerd door polyglot Dr. Alexander Arguelles. De methode is eenvoudig maar krachtig: je luistert naar native Engelse audio en herhaalt het onmiddellijk hardop — als een schaduw die de spreker volgt met slechts 1–2 seconden vertraging. In tegenstelling tot passief luisteren of grammaticadrills, dwingt shadowing je hersenen en mondspieren om echte spraakpatronen tegelijkertijd te verwerken en te reproduceren. Onderzoek toont aan dat het de uitspraaknauwkeurigheid, intonatie, ritme, verbonden spraak, luisterbegrip en spreekvaardigheid aanzienlijk verbetert — waardoor het een van de meest effectieve methoden is voor IELTS Speaking-voorbereiding en echte Engelse communicatie.