Shadowing Practice: if war bad... why stocks go up? - Learn English Speaking with Video
Creating lesson...
1
On April 7th, at 5 :32pm, Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran.
2
And from this announcement, we learned two things: First, Truth Social is the single greatest invention of our generation,
3
and is totally not a useless social media platform.
4
And second, markets don't like uncertainty.
5
Because the very next day after the announcement, the markets ripped.
6
The S &P closed up 2 .5%, the Nasdaq almost 3%, and the Dow climbed more than 1 ,300 points, year.
7
But it didn't just stop there.
8
Because a few weeks later, stocks were back at record highs, even as the ceasefire was actively falling apart in real time.
9
Traditional financial media was calling this a relief rally, that the markets were celebrating peace.
10
But the truth is, that's not what this was.
11
This was something else entirely.
12
But to understand what actually happened, why markets can be at all -time highs when there's a war going on, you first need to understand what Wall Street looked like going into this.
13
Because there's a lot more to this story than just a relief rally.
14
On February 28th, the US and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran.
15
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed.
16
Then Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
17
And the market had its worst five -week losing streak in nearly four years.
18
The S &P was down nearly 9 % by the end of March.
19
And while your retirement account was quietly screaming, there was something else happening underneath the surface.
20
Wall Street was beginning to panic.
21
Hedge funds didn't just start repositioning.
22
at the fastest pace in 13 years.
23
And that's not a loose estimate.
24
That's hard data.
25
Because Goldman Sachs had a front row seat to the show.
26
They run what's called a prime brokerage desk, which services most of the major hedge funds on Wall Street, which means they see what these hedge funds are buying,
27
what they're selling, and just how leveraged they are.
28
And according to Goldman's own numbers, Q1 hedge fund selling in North America was the largest since April 2020.
29
Gross leverage was And short exposure to macro ETFs like SPY and QQQ hit the highest level since the pandemic.
30
And then on March 19th, commodity analyst Rory Johnston said this.
31
If you think about some kind of massive detonation in the oil market supply chain in the Middle East, and there's this shockwave that's kind of moving out, this shock is too large for the system to handle,
32
and it will begin to creak and break the longer this goes on.
33
Just how many barrels per day were those disruptions, you know, the squeeze of 2008, and how big is this in comparison?
34
It's bigger than anything in history.
35
to speak with people again that are I respect people that are not alarmist people that make fun of the alarmists
36
They're all terrified.
37
Let's say the East -West pipeline is maxed.
38
There's no issues at Yanbu.
39
The Houthis don't get involved, etc., etc. In that scenario, with the strait remaining closed, we still need to shed 15 million barrels a day of global demand.
40
And that just means prices, yeah.
41
$250, $300 a barrel Brent.
42
Like, we will hit all -time highs in that scenario on an inflation -adjusted basis.
43
almost guaranteed, almost by necessity.
44
So I do think in that scenario, again, recession is too light a term.
45
We're talking depressionary.
46
Fast forward six weeks later, and this might be the funniest take of the year.
47
We'll come back to why in a second.
48
But at this point, the sentiment on the street was pretty clear.
49
Everyone was bearish.
50
Then, on the evening of April 7th, Trump announced the ceasefire.
51
And when the markets opened the next morning, it was like someone turned Jerome Powell's money printer back on.
52
Because over 400 names in the S &P finished green, 13 stocks printed all -time highs, Brent crude dropped around 13 .5%, and WTI crude fell over 16%.
53
marking the biggest single day decline since April 2020.
54
But here's where the mainstream explanation for all of this starts to break.
55
According to maritime intelligence firm Windward, who utilizes AI to cross -reference digital GPS signals with satellite radar and imagery,
56
only five outbound carriers were actually detected moving through the strait by midday.
57
This is a roughly 96 % decrease in activity compared to
58
the pre -war baseline of around 130 daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
59
So something's not adding up.
60
How can there be a relief rally based on world peace, if there's actually no world peace?
61
Which raises the question, what really moved the markets?
62
And the answer is, a good old -fashioned short squeeze.
63
And I can prove it.
64
But for this to make sense, we first need to explain the underlying mechanics of a short squeeze.
65
Because when you short a stock, you're borrowing shares from someone and selling them.
66
You're betting the price drops so you can buy them back cheaper at a later date, return them, and profit the spread.
67
But if the price goes up instead, you're f*ed because you still have to return those shares you borrowed, which means you have to buy them back at a higher price than you sold them at.
68
And if the price keeps rising, your losses keep you either add more money to your account, or you close the position immediately.
69
And when enough people get margin calls at the same time, they all have to buy back their shares.
70
That buying pushes the price up, which triggers more margin calls, which triggers more buying.
71
And that's a short squeeze.
72
And on April 8th, when the macro short exposure was at the highest level since 2020, the squeeze began.
73
But the squeeze was only the first domino to fall, because once stocks started ripping, the algorithms kicked in.
74
And this is where the CTAs,
75
or Commodity Trading enter the story.
76
Thank you.
77
These are systematic trading firms that run on rules -based models.
78
They don't care about news.
79
They don't care about geopolitics.
80
They just follow trends.
81
When the trend is down, their algorithms say "short." When the trend is up, their algorithms say "long." It's mechanical trading.
82
Goldman reported that CTAs were sitting on about a 30 billion net short position, going into the ceasefire.
83
But the second the S &P crossed certain trigger levels, these models flipped.
84
And they didn't flip to neutral.
85
They flipped to go long.
86
these CTAs would need to buy back around $40 billion of equities to exit their short positions.
87
But the actual number ended up being $86 billion, across just five trading sessions, which, according to Goldman's records,
88
is a top five buying speed print of all time.
89
And then there was the third domino to fall, the options market.
90
Dealers on the other side of options trades have to stay delta neutral, which means when customers pile into calls, dealers hedge by buying the underlying stock.
91
And SpotGamma, a leading financial data platform, had flagged a negative gamma regime heading into the ceasefire.
92
That's the regime where dealer hedging flips from stabilizing to pro -cyclical.
93
Price goes up, dealers buy more, price goes up more.
94
You get the point.
95
So a squeeze, plus a systematic flip, plus dealer hedging.
96
Three dominoes, all falling one after another.
97
the rally.
98
That's what we saw.
99
And here's the funny thing: this isn't the first time we've watched this movie.
100
It's a very similar pattern that has played out again and again over the last decade.
101
Because go back to December 2018, stocks had been crashing for months on fears of a rate hike.
102
Then Jerome Powell goes on stage and says one word: "Patient." And the Dow explodes.
103
It was the first time the Dow had ever gained more than a thousand points
104
hiked rates for the first time in 17 years.
105
The yen carry trade began to unwind, which I've made a video about.
106
Then the nikki drops 12 % in a day, then bounces 10 % the next.
107
These are all different catalysts but the same mechanisms.
108
And the reason this keeps happening is that the structure of the stock market itself has changed.
109
20 years ago, the market was dominated by humans.
110
Portfolio managers reading earnings reports, analysts modeling cash flows, people making discretionary decisions about what companies were actually But now,
111
that market is basically gone.
112
Today, 63 % of all US stock funds are now held by passive indexers.
113
That's more than $13 trillion of "blind money" that doesn't read earnings reports or care if Apple had a good quarter.
114
It just follows the index on autopilot.
115
And because most passive funds are market cap weighted, the bigger a company gets, the more of it they buy,
116
which is how the Magnificent Seven now makes up over 33 % of the S &P 500.
117
So a massive chunk of the market isn't being priced out anymore.
118
It's receiving allocation on default.
119
And what's left of the active investing side has also changed.
120
The hedge fund industry has consolidated into a handful of giant multi -strategy funds that dominate the industry.
121
The Millenniums, the Citadels, and the .72s of the world.
122
And their assets under management have grown exponentially over the last decade.
123
These funds typically run at 4 to 8 times leverage with strict drawdown rules, which means when they hit a drawdown limit,
124
or whether the war is really over, they sell immediately.
125
And underneath all of this is the options market.
126
Because now, same -day expiration options make up around 63 % of all SPX trading.
127
On peak days, we're seeing over $2 trillion of notional value change hands in a single trading session.
128
Every one of those options forces a dealer on the other side to hedge in real time, which leads to buying or selling the underlying stock to keep their books balanced.
129
So the dominant players in 2026 aren't analyzing valuations or fundamentals.
130
They're reacting.
131
And when price moves, their what happened on April 8th.
132
Once you understand this, once you understand the mechanics behind why markets are irrational, everything starts to make a little more sense.
133
So if you're tired of watching traditional financial media hand you the dumbed down version of what's happening in markets, hit subscribe.
134
Because this is the stuff they conveniently forget to cover.
135
Because the stock market we all used to know and love, the one about finding undervalued companies and investing in them for the long term,
136
that stock market feedback loop of algorithms, passive funds, and options dealers all reacting to each other in real time.
137
And the headlines?
138
Well, they're just the narratives people use to help rationalize things.
📺 Same Channel
C12
The Stock Market Is Being Used as a Dumping Ground
C12
To Save the Economy... We’re About to Break It
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
The $2.5 Trillion Credit Wave Nobody Sees Coming
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B22
it’s boring, but it’s what bursts the ai bubble
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B23
The World's Safest Market Is Breaking
IELTS PrepBusiness EnglishUniversity Students
B22
The Recession's Already Here… Open Your Eyes
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B25
The New American Housing Crisis Has Landed
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B23
The Stock Market is BROKEN (just accept it)
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C112
America Is Walking Into a Debt Spiral It Can't Stop
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
Something Feels Off About 2026...
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C111
The AI Bubble Survives on $1.65 Trillion in Hidden Debt
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
Bitcoin Is a Brilliant Scam and I Can Prove It (Again)
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B23
Private Credit: The Secret Industry Taking Over Wall Street
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B21
Every Type of Investor Explained in 6 Minutes
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B23
Why The Dumbest Investors Win (it's not why you think)
Business EnglishWorking Adults
B23
The Inflation Problem... It's Worse Than You Think
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
Crypto Is a Brilliant Scam and I Can Prove It
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B24
The 1973 Stock Market Crash that Nobody Remembers
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B24
The (Inevitable) United States Debt Crisis
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
C14
The AI Bubble… We Need to Talk
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
✨ Recommend Video
C11
159 sentences
Untangling Signals of Market Stress
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B2160 sentences
Why the US is Losing the Infrastructure War
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B2227 sentences
Breaking Iran War Update - Massive Explosions Reported As Iran Prepares For US Nuclear Attack
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B24
283 sentences
Warren Buffett Is Selling NOW. The $397 Billion COLLAPSE.
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
233 sentences
Metal Gear Rising - Raiden & Armstrong Legendary Dialogue (no gameplay)
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B2254 sentences
Trump PANICS As US Military RUNS OUT OF MONEY!! | The Kyle Kulinski Show
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
268 sentences
Trump’s Canada Tariffs Are Backfiring in Red States | The Week
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
279 sentences
White House holds briefing as Iran tensions fuel fears of wider conflict
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
81 sentences
How A Single Shell Company Drained $1.6 Billion From The Pentagon
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B2466 sentences
The oil apocalypse is here
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
Vocabulary and speaking notes for this lesson
This B2 speaking lesson is built on the video “if war bad... why stocks go up?”. The speaker keeps coming back to these words: stock, fund, price, hedge, squeeze. This video has 138 sentences and 1753 words to shadow. The speech runs for 10:03. The speaker talks at a natural 174 words per minute, close to everyday conversation. Only 80% of the words are among the 3,000 most common in English, so the vocabulary is demanding.
Key vocabulary in this video
The 15 most advanced words in the video, with pronunciation and meaning:
| Word | Pronunciation | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| hedge noun | /ˈhɛd͡ʒ/ | A thicket of bushes or other shrubbery, especially one planted as a fence between two portions of land, or to separate the parts of a garden. |
| squeeze verb | /skwiːz/ | To apply pressure (to something) from two or more sides at once. |
| dealer noun | /ˈdiːlə(ɹ)/ | One who deals in goods, especially automobiles; a middleman. |
| ceasefire noun | In warfare, an agreed end to hostilities for a specific purpose. (Typically only temporary). | |
| flip verb | /flɪp/ | To throw so as to turn over. |
| strait noun | /stɹeɪt/ | A narrow channel of water connecting two larger bodies of water. |
| algorithm noun | /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/ | A collection of ordered steps that solve a mathematical problem. A precise step-by-step plan for a computational procedure that possibly begins with an input… |
| domino noun | /ˈdɑməˌnoʊ/ | A tile divided into two squares, each having 0 to 6 (or sometimes more) dots or pips (as in dice), used in the game of dominoes. |
| leverage noun | /ˈlɛv.(ə.)ɹɪd͡ʒ/ | A force compounded by means of a lever rotating around a pivot. |
| passive adjective | /ˈpæs.ɪv/ | Being subjected to an action without producing a reaction. |
| underlying adjective | Lying underneath. | |
| barrel noun | /ˈbæɹəl/ | A round (cylindrical) vessel, such as a cask, of greater length than breadth, and bulging in the middle, made of staves bound with hoops, and having flat ends… |
| scenario noun | /sɪˈnɛəɹioʊ/ | An outline or model of an expected or supposed sequence of events. |
| alarmist noun | /əˈlɑɹmɪst/ | One who causes others to become alarmed without cause. |
| drawdown noun | The act of reduction or depletion (including through withdrawal or utilization). |
Phrasal verbs you will hear
| Word | Pronunciation | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| go up verb | To move upwards. | |
| buy back verb | To purchase (something already sold, misplaced, destroyed, or given away). | |
| add up verb | To take the sum of; to total. | |
| close up verb | /kləʊzˈʌp/ | To close (remove a gap) completely or fully. |
| end up verb | To bring to a conclusion. | |
| fall over verb | To fall from an upright or standing position to a horizontal or prone position. | |
| go back to verb | To stem from; to originate in. | |
| make up verb | /ˌmeɪk ˈʌp/ | To constitute, to compose. |
Grammar in this video
The structures the speaker uses most, with the exact words from the video:
| Structure | In the video |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + past participle — a past action that still matters now | we've watched · has played · I've made |
| Passive voice be + past participle — the focus is on what happens, not who does it | was killed · is maxed · were actually detected |
| Relative clauses who / which + clause — extra information about a person or thing | Street, which means · borrowed, which means · neutral, which means |
Pronunciation to watch
The speaker uses 24 contractions and reduced forms, such as don't, they're, you're. Say them the short way, as you hear them.
- The “th” sounds: algorithm /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/, underneath /ˌʌndɚˈniθ/
- The “sh” and “zh” sounds: detonation /dɛtəˈneɪʃən/, discretionary /dɪsˈkɹɛʃəˌnɛɹi/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, exponentially /ɛkspə(ʊ)ˈnɛnʃəli/, notional /ˈnoʊʃənəl/
- Long words — get the stress right: macroeconomics /ˌmæk.ɹoʊˌiː.kəˈnɒ.mɪks/, commodity /kəˈmɑdəti/, systematic /ˌsɪs.tɪˈmæt.ɪk/, autopilot /ˈɔtoʊˌpaɪlət/, consolidate /kənˈsɒl.ɪ.deɪt/
How to practise with this video
- Listen to the whole video once without speaking and note the words you do not know.
- Start at 0.75× speed, shadow it sentence by sentence, then go back to normal speed once it feels easy.
- Record yourself and compare with the original, paying attention to words like hedge, squeeze, dealer.
What is the Shadowing Technique?
Shadowing is a science-backed language learning technique originally developed for professional interpreter training and popularized by polyglot Dr. Alexander Arguelles. The method is simple but powerful: you listen to native English audio and immediately repeat it out loud — like a shadow following the speaker with just a 1–2 second delay. Unlike passive listening or grammar drills, shadowing forces your brain and mouth muscles to simultaneously process and reproduce real speech patterns. Research shows it significantly improves pronunciation accuracy, intonation, rhythm, connected speech, listening comprehension, and speaking fluency — making it one of the most effective methods for IELTS Speaking preparation and real-world English communication.