Prática de Shadowing: John Mearsheimer: Why Russia Might NUKE Europe - Aprenda a falar inglês com vídeo
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Professor, while we have you, we also wanted to talk to you about the Ukraine war, which grinds on.
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And as far as I can tell, the front lines are more or less stuck.
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The Ukrainians have made very effective use of drone warfare, which has helped them overcome some of their manpower disadvantage.
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We can put D1 up on the screen.
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There is some concern, and this is a Wall Street Journal article laying out the case,
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that Putin could expand the war beyond Ukraine, striking inside of Europe.
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You have also, Kiev has been striking inside of Russia.
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You've had Russia escalating attacks directly on the city of Kiev.
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So just give us a little bit of an update of where the war stands, and if you think that this is a realistic possibility that's being laid out here in the Wall Street Journal.
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Well, I think you have to separate the war on the ground from the air war.
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And when I talk about the air war, I'm talking about the strategic bombing where the Ukrainians are using drones and missiles to strike deep into Russia.
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And the Russians, of course, are doing the same thing vis-a-vis Ukraine.
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That's the air war.
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And then there's the war on the ground.
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There's no question that with the coming of drones, it's very difficult to make rapid progress on the ground.
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But the Russians are nevertheless making progress. in Ukraine.
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The idea that Ukraine has turned the tide on the battlefield and is rolling the Russians back, or will someday roll the Russians back,
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is not a plausible argument.
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The Russians are winning on the ground.
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And you want to remember that they've already conquered 20%, roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory.
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And they're not going to give that territory up.
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Ukraine is never going to recover that 20% that it's already lost.
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The only question is how much more territory will the Russians conquer?
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And they will conquer more territory.
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So that's the ground war.
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The air war is where things are getting dangerous.
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And there what's happening is that the Ukrainians are using more drones and more sophisticated drones to attack deep into Russia.
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And they're hitting oil refineries, and they're killing lots of Russian civilians.
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And the Russians are reaching the point where they're saying enough is enough.
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And they bombed Kiev on Sunday night in ways that they have never bombed that city before.
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They really turned the dogs loose, as I like to say.
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And they're threatening to do even more.
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They've warned European countries to remove
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their diplomatic staffs from Kyiv because they are obviously intending to hit targets that might include those diplomatic installations.
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But the real worry is that the Russians will hit targets inside of Eastern Europe or even Western Europe.
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There are voices inside of Russia
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that say it's It's time to take off the gloves and to go after targets in Europe,
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because the Europeans are assisting the Ukrainians in these attacks on Mother Russia.
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The argument, which is quite correct, is that there is no way that the Ukrainians could attack Russia,
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could attack deep into Russia with drones and missiles the way they're doing now, without significant assistance from the West.
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And if that is the case, we, the Russians, have to attack into the West if they're going to be allowed to attack into Mother Russia.
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So it looks like there is a serious possibility that at some point in the future, the Russians will attack NATO countries,
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and that would be potentially disastrous.
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Wow.
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What we've also seen, sir, can we put D3 up here on the screen?
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I took note of this yesterday.
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Zelensky in a new letter to President Trump and to Congress saying that he urgently needs patriot interceptors.
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And in the letter, basically what he says is that they're going under, like you just said, this sustained Russian attack.
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You have these drones and hypersonic missiles that are now being used by the Russians, which definitely do show an increase in the air war.
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What should we make of this then from the Ukrainian side?
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So if the Russians are going to escalate their attacks, then the Ukrainians, I assume, will escalate even further in terms of their drones,
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not just oil refineries, but other more strategic targets.
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What they're asking for patriot interceptors, the Trump administration also is in a bit of a bind because of what just happened with Iran.
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They can't just give them over.
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They have to really husband their resources.
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What will this look like if things continue to go further?
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Well, I think that there's no question that we have used up so many Patriot missiles, so many THAAD missiles, Tomahawks,
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on and on in the war against Iran,
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that we're in a situation where there are great limits on the weaponry that we can provide to the Ukrainians.
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And of course, this includes Patriot missiles.
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and patriots were their best defensive weapons and uh they're out of patriots
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and uh therefore they're wide open to attacks from russia
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and what uh zelensky is trying to do is convince the americans
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that they should send patriots to ukraine to help ukraine fend off these russian attacks
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but the fact is that we don't have patriots to give them we've expended so many weapons in the war against Iran.
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So this means that Ukraine is wide open to attacks from Russian missiles and from Russian drones for the foreseeable future.
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Professor, lay out for us, let's say that Russia does go forward with a strike, direct strike on a NATO country.
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What do you think would happen then?
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You know, what does that look like?
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What actions do you believe that the U.S would would be likely to take in that scenario?
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Well, if you listen to the rhetoric that comes out of Russia from sort of the principal proponents of this perspective,
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And this perspective enjoys widespread support inside of Russia, especially among the elites.
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The argument is that you would launch limited conventional attacks against the West.
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And if that didn't convince the West to cease and desist from helping the Ukrainians to attack into Russia,
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deep into Russia, then what the Russians should do is think about using nuclear weapons, not large numbers of nuclear weapons,
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but just a handful of nuclear weapons to send a very clear signal to the West that the Russians mean business.
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What the Russians feel they have to do here is establish deterrence.
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The Russians believe, and I think quite correctly, that the West thinks that they can help Ukraine attack Russia,
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and there'll be no price to pay for the West.
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The West gets a free ride here.
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It just can help the Ukrainians punch away at Russia.
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There's no real deterrent in effect against the West.
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And the Russians believe they have to establish a deterrent, and they want to do that with conventional weapons, or they're talking about doing it with conventional weapons.
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But their argument is if that doesn't work, they'll use nuclear weapons.
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The Russian perspective here is basically that the West doesn't understand that they're dealing with a nuclear armed adversary,
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that we live in the nuclear world, and that when you begin to threaten the Russian homeland and you begin to kill Russians in large numbers,
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that you are creating a situation where the Russians are going to have an incentive to strike back
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and to strike back in serious ways and to try to convince the West
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that we live in a world where nuclear deterrence should obtain.
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You and the West may have forgotten about that, but we're going to remind you that we live in a world where nuclear weapons may be used, and we will use nuclear weapons,
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if necessary, to restore deterrence.
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So that's what's going on here, and it's a very dangerous situation,
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because the West and Zelensky don't seem to care about Russian red lines.
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The West and the Ukrainians seem to think that they can just pound away at the Russians and get away with it.
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And if you look at the Iran situation, they were only able to establish deterrence by inflicting immense economic damage on the world.
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And by doing that, they were able to demand a ceasefire.
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Russia can read the news just like anybody else and say, okay, we have to do something similar.
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Absolutely.
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And by the way, just to go back to the Iran case, when you look at the Iran case and you tie that in to North Korea,
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you see that North Korea was smart to get nuclear weapons and that Iran should have gotten nuclear weapons.
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Because the Israelis and the Americans definitely would not be attacking Iran if it had nuclear weapons that could hit Israel.
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And the reason they're doing that is
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because they think they can get away with it they can get a free ride because Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons.
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Yeah.
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And your point about the parallels between the Iranian case and the Russian case, I think, is right on the money.
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That's the lesson that the Russians have taken from what the Iranians have done.
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And this is what really scares me, because first of all, it seems that enough time has passed
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that we've become complacent about the fact
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that we do live in a nuclear-armed war and what
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that means in terms of the level of devastating life-ending destruction can be wrought.
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We also live in a time where basically every other taboo has been thrown out the window.
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We all watched genocide on our live feeds every day
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and no one with any power stepped in to do anything about it.
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We call war peace now.
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We say that Iran's the aggressors, even though we in Israel are the ones that bombed them.
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So every previous taboo seems to have gone out the window.
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The only one that seems to remain at this point is the nuclear taboo.
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And it makes me wonder how long that is going to be able to hold up.
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Yeah, I agree with everything you said.
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And just to sort of reinforce your point,
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Crystal, you want to remember that Ukraine invaded Mother Russia in August of 2024.
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And you also want to remember that Ukraine
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and both of these operations were with assistance from the United States
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and Britain attacked one leg of the strategic nuclear triad of Russia.
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And as I've pointed out on a number of occasions, this was unthinkable during the Cold War.
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The idea that we would allow one of our allies to attack into Russian territory, it's just not in the realm of possibility during the Cold War.
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And the idea
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that we would let one of our allies with assistance from
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us attack one leg of the strategic nuclear triad of the Soviet Union was again unthinkable.
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But here we are in the Ukraine war and we've helped the Ukrainians to invade Russia.
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We've helped the Ukrainians to attack the strategic nuclear triad of Russia.
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And also it seems that we helped the Ukrainians launch a decapitation attack against Putin.
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It's not for certain, but it certainly looks like that.
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And you really wonder what the United States and what the British are thinking when they help the Ukrainians do this.
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And of course, the Russians understand exactly what's going on.
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And that's why the Russians are deeply committed to reestablishing, or maybe I should say,
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establishing deterrence and making it clear to the West and to the Ukrainians that this just has to stop.
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And to make it stop, they're willing to go up the escalation ladder.
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And then, of course, the question, as we've been talking about, is whether or not they're willing to use nuclear weapons and break the nuclear taboo, so to speak.
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Great point.
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Well, thank you very much, sir, as always.
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We deeply appreciate your time.
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It was my pleasure.
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Thanks for having me on the show.
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Sobre Esta Lição
Nesta prática de conversação em inglês, você terá a oportunidade de aprimorar sua habilidade de compreensão auditiva e pronúncia por meio da análise de um discurso sobre o conflito atual na Ucrânia e a possível escalada das tensões na Europa. O vídeo traz insights de um especialista, o que permite que você estude a terminologia relevante e as estruturas de frases formais. A prática com este material focará em como expressar opiniões e descrever cenários complexos com clareza.
Vocabulário e Frases Principais
- drone warfare - guerra de drones
- strategic bombing - bombardeio estratégico
- territory - território
- conquer - conquistar
- sustained attack - ataque sustentado
- hypersonic missiles - mísseis hipersônicos
- European countries - países europeus
- NATO - OTAN
Dicas de Prática
Para maximizar sua prática de conversação em inglês com este vídeo, recomenda-se a técnica de shadow speak. Ouça cuidadosamente o discurso, que é proferido em um tom sério e em um ritmo moderado, e tente imitar as entonações e pausas do falante. Isso não apenas ajudará você a melhorar a pronúncia em inglês, mas também a entender a ênfase que deve ser dada a determinados argumentos e informações. A formação de frases complexas pode ser desafiadora, então, se necessário, pause o vídeo, repita as frases em voz alta e, em seguida, grave sua própria versão. Isso ajudará no desenvolvimento da fluência e da autoconfiança conforme você progride na compreensão de temas globais. Lembre-se de que a consistência é a chave, e fazer shadow speech regularmente trará avanços significativos na sua habilidade de comunicação.
O que é a Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing é uma técnica de aprendizado de idiomas com base científica, originalmente desenvolvida para o treinamento de intérpretes profissionais. O método é simples, mas poderoso: você ouve áudio em inglês nativo e repete imediatamente em voz alta — como uma sombra seguindo o falante com 1-2 segundos de atraso. Pesquisas mostram melhora significativa na precisão da pronúncia, entonação, ritmo, sons conectados, compreensão auditiva e fluência na fala.