Prática de Shadowing: Professor Jiang Predicts: US WILL LOSE Iran War - Aprenda a falar inglês com o YouTube
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All right, guys, we've got yet another heavy hitter guest and first time guest on the show, Professor Zhang.
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All right, guys, we've got yet another heavy hitter guest and first time guest on the show, Professor Zhang.
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He is the star of the popular YouTube channel, Predictive History.
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He uses game theory to analyze past,
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current, and to predict future geopolitical events.
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And he joins us now.
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Professor, great to have you.
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Good to see you, sir.
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Thanks for inviting me.
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Yeah, of course.
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So, you know, for people who aren't familiar with your work,
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I wanted to show folks that back in 2024,
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you made three big predictions.
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One, that Trump would win.
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Two, that he would start a war with Iran.
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And three, that the U.S would lose that war.
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Let's take a listen to that.
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In this class, this semester,
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I'm making three big predictions, right?
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First is that Trump will win in November.
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Second is that the United States will go to war against Iran.
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And the third big prediction is that the United States will lose this war,
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which will forever change the global order.
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So obviously, that last one is the only one that has not yet come to fruition is quite a stunning prediction.
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Do you stand by it?
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And what have you seen so far that leads you to sort of stand firm in that conclusion?
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So, given my analysis of how the war is progressing,
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I think that Iran has many more advantages over the United States.
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The reality is that right now,
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it's a war of attrition between the United States and Iran,
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and the Iranians have been preparing 20 years for this conflict.
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In their eschatology, in their religion,
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this is a war against the great Satan.
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They've had many practice runs.
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Last June was a 12-day war when the Iranians were able to examine
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and analyze the strike capacities of both the Israelis and the Americans.
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And they've had a lot of time,
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eight months, to prepare fully for this new attack.
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They, through their proxies, the Hufis,
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Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Shia militias,
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have been able to really grasp the American mentality.
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And now they have a pretty good strategy of how to weaken and ultimately destroy the American empire.
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So what the Iranians are doing is they're waging war against the entire global economy.
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And so they are striking the GCC countries.
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And not only are they striking GCC countries,
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American bases, they're going after the critical energy infrastructure of these bases.
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They've blocked off the tropical moves.
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And eventually they will go after the water desalination plants,
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which is the lifeblood of these nations because they don't have fresh water supply.
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In fact, the water desalination plant provides 60% of the GCC's water supply.
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So if a drone, and these drones cost $50,000,
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if they wiped out a desalination plant in Riyadh,
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Saudi Arabia, and it's a city of 10 million people,
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right, they'd be out of water in two weeks.
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In two weeks.
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And right now the Iranians have de facto closed off the Shreve Hormuz
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and the GCC gets 90% of its food from the Shreve Hormuz.
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So I know a lot of people are talking about the disruptions to the global economy,
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but right now the Iranians are actually threatening the very existence of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar.
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And why this is important is that the Gulf States are really the linchpin of the American economy.
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So what they do is they sell petrodollars
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and then they recycle the petrodollars back into the American economy through the investments in the stock market.
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And right now we know that the entire global,
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the entire American economy is propped up by AI investments data centers.
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And a lot of that comes from the Gulf states.
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So if the Gulf states are no longer able to sell oil,
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and they're no longer able to finance AI,
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this AI bubble in the United States,
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then AI will burst, and with it,
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will burst as well as the entire American economy,
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which is really a financial policy scheme.
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So that's a dire situation that the Americans are facing right now.
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Yeah, I mean, to your point,
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sir, an Amazon data center was literally hit in the UAE.
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And now, of course, big tech companies,
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which we're looking at the UAE as a major potential data center investment hub with cheap and abundant energy,
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probably going to be rethinking that.
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We also want to talk to you about munitions.
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We can put this next one up here on the screen.
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The United States is racing to accomplish Iran mission before munitions run out.
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This is specifically around interceptor math.
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There's a famous video just from yesterday in Israel,
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which shows a single Iranian ballistic missile,
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which is being targeted by some 11 different interceptors, all of which miss.
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Most of those come from the United States,
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not to mention all of the different bases,
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the GCC countries that you just talked about,
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and the asymmetry of the cost.
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It's a million dollar for a missile,
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tens of millions per interceptor in some of these cases.
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With these munitions running out,
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how does that change the global picture?
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So here in China, obviously,
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much of the stocks in Asia of the United States are likely to have to be cannibalized
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if this were to go on.
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How is that going to affect the global picture here?
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Right.
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So my first point is that the United States military is not designed to fight a 21st century war.
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Remember that the military industrial complex came to being after World War II and was designed to fight the Cold War.
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And the Cold War was really about muscle flexing,
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about who was able to send people up into space,
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was able to, who was the first get the person on the moon,
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who had the more complex missile systems.
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And so the entire American military strategy revolves around very sophisticated technology that costs a lot of money to build.
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And that's what the American air defense system is,
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is basically, and that's why we're seeing this asymmetry,
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as you point out in this war,
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where you have these million dollar missiles trying to take out these $50,000 drones,
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and it's not sustainable in the long term.
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And so what we're seeing is really the puncturing of the aura of invincibility
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and inviability that sustained American hegemony for the past 20 years,
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especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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And this is really a reordering,
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not just a global economy,
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because this signals the collapse of the petrodollar and with it,
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the entire US dollar-based reserve currency system,
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but also the global hegemony of the United States.
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We're moving towards a multipolar world.
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Professor, this morning, Secretary of War,
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Pete Hegseth, was asked a question about potential ground troops in Iran.
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He refused to rule out that possibility.
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And he said, you know,
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oh, well, we're not gonna project to you what we will or will not do,
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what we don't want to rule anything out,
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we will do what it takes.
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Do you think
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that America will end up invading Iran from the ground since
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it's already becoming relatively clear they won't be able to accomplish the goal of regime change
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or even regime collapse using just air power alone?
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Right.
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So everyone says that the worst calamity
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that could happen in the United States is if it were to send ground troops into Iran.
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At the same time, the United States are committed to regime change in Iran.
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We've never had a
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precedent in history where you were able to regime change from the air alone you need ground troops
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and so unfortunately what's going to happen over the next few months is
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that uh pressure will build on america to send ground troops especially from the gcc countries
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and from israel which are being pounded right now by uh the iranians
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so remember that if the gcc country saudi arabia uh qatar uae Iran,
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if they go, then the petrodollar goes with them.
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So the Americans need to protect these countries.
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And these countries are going to demand that either the Americans bribe the Iranians to seize,
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and this is like $5, $20 in indemnity,
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okay, or send ground troops to wipe out the Iranian threat once and for all.
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And I know that there's no political will for ground troops to be used against Iran among the American people.
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Remember that 70-80% of American people was against initial strikes against Iran in the first place.
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Right.
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And one of the things that really comes into question,
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I think, with all of this,
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sir, when we're looking at the geopolitical picture
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and the sacrificing in much of this from the United States
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on behalf of Israel is kind of a question as to who and what wanted this.
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We were actually curious for your view on a disputed report here from The Washington Post.
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We can put it up here on the screen.
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F3, a push from the Saudis.
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Israel helped move Trump to attack Iran.
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Now, this has been internally disputed by Saudi Arabia,
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saying that they did not push the Trump administration to attack Iran.
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However, this is clearly an authorized leak from our own government
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trying to at least lay some of the blame on behalf of the GCC.
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What do you make of this analysis and of this narrative
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that Saudi Arabia was also trying to be behind this push to bomb Iran?
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So I've always argued that both Saudi Arabia and Israel are heavily invested in regime change in Iran.
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In fact, Saudi Arabia sees Iran as much more of an existential crisis than Israel.
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Because remember, Israel still has nuclear weapons and Israel is a very diverse,
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very sophisticated economy, whereas Saudi Arabia is completely reliant on oil.
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And it's always had problems with Iran because Iran is a theocracy opposed to the Saudi monarchy,
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Iran funds and equips the Houthis,
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which have been antagonistic towards Saudi Arabia for the longest time.
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And right now, the Saudi economy is suffering.
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It's been trying to pivot towards more of a tourist economy.
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That's why they brought in Renato.
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That's why they're switching to e-gaming.
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That's why they're building something called a line, Neom.
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And all these things are not working out.
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So they need to be able to control the oil resources of the entire Middle East
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if they are to survive and thrive as a nation.
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So I do believe that this reporting is credible,
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even though it does make Saudi Arabia look bad.
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But remember, Saudi Arabia says that they wanted peace,
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but they are helping the Israelis and Americans attack Iran right now
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because they're allowing the Air Force Reliefs and Americans to use Saudi airspace.
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So help us understand, because it still feels to me like there are some pieces that don't totally add up.
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You had in advance of this war on Iran,
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you had top military brass up to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff saying,
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this is a really bad idea.
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You know, we are not ready for this.
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You know, all the math on the interceptors that's been talked about for months at this point.
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And yet Trump still decided to go ahead.
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What is the calculus that he was making here that led him to take what,
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you know, already appears to be catastrophic actions?
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Right.
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Okay.
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So this is the key question.
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Why do they do this?
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I think there are three possibilities.
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Okay.
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And I think all three possibilities are valid.
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The first is that of hubris.
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You look at history, this is how empires behave.
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So the Mindoro kidnapping was quick,
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successful, and it was adrenaline rush for Trump.
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And that made him overconfident in the capacity of the American military.
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So hubris is a factor.
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And we see this throughout history.
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Why did Hitler invade Stalin?
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Because he conquered Europe really easily and he thought he was invincible.
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And that led to the destruction of the German army in the Soviet Union.
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So hubris is a factor,
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then you have to look at internal political calculus,
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where even though America does not benefit from this war against Iran,
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Trump himself personally benefits.
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Why?
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Because the Saudis and Israelis are bribing him to attack Iran.
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Remember that the Saudis invested $2 billion in the private equity fund of Jared Kushner,
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who is the son-in-law of Donald Trump,
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and the Israelis through Mayor Adelson have been financing Trump's political career, right?
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So Mayor Adelson a few months back said that she will put up $20 million if Trump were to run a third term.
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So Trump is getting a lot of financial and political support from the Saudis and Israelis.
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Also remember that if this war goes sideways and Trump is forced to use ground troops,
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he will probably get approved from Congress,
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and this will give him emergency war powers,
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which will allow him to influence the midterms.
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So Trump is thinking about a third term.
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And I think at the public box,
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he probably won't get it.
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But if there's a war going on,
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and you can delay elections,
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and you have emergency war powers,
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and people rally around the flag,
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then he probably will get a third term.
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And the last factor that is very important is the eschatological factor where
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if you look at the epson files it's clear
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that we are run by secret societies it's clear
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that the world is run by these uh individuals who have
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a lot of power we don't know who they are
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but they control the military they control the national security apparatus
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and these people we we there are different names for these people uh you can call them the illuminati
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and the illuminati are composed of three major groups okay you have the jesuits who control the Vatican.
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You have the Sepertine Frankists,
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which control the modern state of Israel today.
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You have the Freemasons, which control the national security apparatus of the United States.
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And they believe that Israel,
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this one Middle East, is key to the end times in creating heaven on earth.
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So it's almost like a script that they're following,
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even though it doesn't make any duplicity sense.
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Okay.
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So I would say that these three are the best reasons why this is happening.
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Wow.
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Well, sir, I hope you come back.
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This was very informative, I think, for both of us.
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We deeply appreciate your time.
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Thank you.
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Thank you.
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Contexto & Antecedentes
O vídeo apresenta uma conversa com o Professor Jiang, uma figura proeminente no campo da história preditiva. Ele utiliza a teoria dos jogos para analisar eventos geopolíticos passados e atuais, além de formular previsões sobre o futuro. Neste episódio, Jiang discute previsões que fez em 2024, onde destacou a possibilidade de que os Estados Unidos entrariam em um conflito com o Irã e, surpreendentemente, que os EUA perderiam esta guerra. Com um conhecimento profundo sobre a dinâmica de conflitos, ele explora as vantagens das forças iranianas e suas táticas para enfrentar a potência americana.
Top 5 Frases para Comunicação Diária
- "Os Estados Unidos irão à guerra contra o Irã." - Uma frase afirmativa que pode ser usada em discussões sobre conflitos contemporâneos.
- "O Irã tem mais vantagens sobre os Estados Unidos." - Ajuda a expressar opiniões sobre desequilíbrios de poder em situações de conflito.
- "É uma guerra de atrito." - Uma expressão útil para descrever batalhas prolongadas que testam a resistência dos envolvidos.
- "Eles estão atacando a infraestrutura energética." - Muito aplicável em diálogos sobre sabotagem e segurança nacional.
- "A planta de dessalinização fornece 60% da água." - Uma frase informativa que pode ser usada em conversas sobre recursos e necessidades básicas.
Guia Passo a Passo de Shadowing
Para melhorar a pronúncia em inglês utilizando o shadow speech, siga estas etapas ao assistir ao vídeo do Professor Jiang:
- Escute atentamente: Ouça o vídeo uma vez sem interrupções para pegar a ideia geral e o tom do discurso.
- Repita as frases: Escolha uma frase por vez da seção anterior. Pause o vídeo após cada frase e repita-a em voz alta. Tente imitar a entonação e a pronúncia do Professor Jiang.
- Grave sua voz: Ao praticar o shadowspeak, grave sua própria voz enquanto repete as frases. Isso permite que você compare sua pronúncia com a do falante original.
- Analise e ajuste: Ouça a gravação e identifique onde você pode melhorar. Preste atenção à velocidade, clareza e entonação.
- Pratique consistentemente: Faça do shadowing um hábito diário. Quanto mais você praticar, mais natural e fluente formará suas habilidades de fala em inglês.
Utilizando essas técnicas junto com o método de shadowing, você poderá aprimorar sua capacidade de comunicação e compreensão em inglês, tornando-se mais confiante em diálogos do cotidiano.
O que é a Técnica de Shadowing?
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