Практика Shadowing: Professor Jiang Predicts: US WILL LOSE Iran War - Изучайте разговорный английский с YouTube

All right, guys, we've got yet another heavy hitter guest and first time guest on the show, Professor Zhang.

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All right, guys, we've got yet another heavy hitter guest and first time guest on the show, Professor Zhang.

He is the star of the popular YouTube channel, Predictive History.

He uses game theory to analyze past,

current, and to predict future geopolitical events.

And he joins us now.

Professor, great to have you.

Good to see you, sir.

Thanks for inviting me.

Yeah, of course.

So, you know, for people who aren't familiar with your work,

I wanted to show folks that back in 2024,

you made three big predictions.

One, that Trump would win.

Two, that he would start a war with Iran.

And three, that the U.S would lose that war.

Let's take a listen to that.

In this class, this semester,

I'm making three big predictions, right?

First is that Trump will win in November.

Second is that the United States will go to war against Iran.

And the third big prediction is that the United States will lose this war,

which will forever change the global order.

So obviously, that last one is the only one that has not yet come to fruition is quite a stunning prediction.

Do you stand by it?

And what have you seen so far that leads you to sort of stand firm in that conclusion?

So, given my analysis of how the war is progressing,

I think that Iran has many more advantages over the United States.

The reality is that right now,

it's a war of attrition between the United States and Iran,

and the Iranians have been preparing 20 years for this conflict.

In their eschatology, in their religion,

this is a war against the great Satan.

They've had many practice runs.

Last June was a 12-day war when the Iranians were able to examine

and analyze the strike capacities of both the Israelis and the Americans.

And they've had a lot of time,

eight months, to prepare fully for this new attack.

They, through their proxies, the Hufis,

Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Shia militias,

have been able to really grasp the American mentality.

And now they have a pretty good strategy of how to weaken and ultimately destroy the American empire.

So what the Iranians are doing is they're waging war against the entire global economy.

And so they are striking the GCC countries.

And not only are they striking GCC countries,

American bases, they're going after the critical energy infrastructure of these bases.

They've blocked off the tropical moves.

And eventually they will go after the water desalination plants,

which is the lifeblood of these nations because they don't have fresh water supply.

In fact, the water desalination plant provides 60% of the GCC's water supply.

So if a drone, and these drones cost $50,000,

if they wiped out a desalination plant in Riyadh,

Saudi Arabia, and it's a city of 10 million people,

right, they'd be out of water in two weeks.

In two weeks.

And right now the Iranians have de facto closed off the Shreve Hormuz

and the GCC gets 90% of its food from the Shreve Hormuz.

So I know a lot of people are talking about the disruptions to the global economy,

but right now the Iranians are actually threatening the very existence of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar.

And why this is important is that the Gulf States are really the linchpin of the American economy.

So what they do is they sell petrodollars

and then they recycle the petrodollars back into the American economy through the investments in the stock market.

And right now we know that the entire global,

the entire American economy is propped up by AI investments data centers.

And a lot of that comes from the Gulf states.

So if the Gulf states are no longer able to sell oil,

and they're no longer able to finance AI,

this AI bubble in the United States,

then AI will burst, and with it,

will burst as well as the entire American economy,

which is really a financial policy scheme.

So that's a dire situation that the Americans are facing right now.

Yeah, I mean, to your point,

sir, an Amazon data center was literally hit in the UAE.

And now, of course, big tech companies,

which we're looking at the UAE as a major potential data center investment hub with cheap and abundant energy,

probably going to be rethinking that.

We also want to talk to you about munitions.

We can put this next one up here on the screen.

The United States is racing to accomplish Iran mission before munitions run out.

This is specifically around interceptor math.

There's a famous video just from yesterday in Israel,

which shows a single Iranian ballistic missile,

which is being targeted by some 11 different interceptors, all of which miss.

Most of those come from the United States,

not to mention all of the different bases,

the GCC countries that you just talked about,

and the asymmetry of the cost.

It's a million dollar for a missile,

tens of millions per interceptor in some of these cases.

With these munitions running out,

how does that change the global picture?

So here in China, obviously,

much of the stocks in Asia of the United States are likely to have to be cannibalized

if this were to go on.

How is that going to affect the global picture here?

Right.

So my first point is that the United States military is not designed to fight a 21st century war.

Remember that the military industrial complex came to being after World War II and was designed to fight the Cold War.

And the Cold War was really about muscle flexing,

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about who was able to send people up into space,

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was able to, who was the first get the person on the moon,

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who had the more complex missile systems.

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And so the entire American military strategy revolves around very sophisticated technology that costs a lot of money to build.

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And that's what the American air defense system is,

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is basically, and that's why we're seeing this asymmetry,

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as you point out in this war,

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where you have these million dollar missiles trying to take out these $50,000 drones,

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and it's not sustainable in the long term.

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And so what we're seeing is really the puncturing of the aura of invincibility

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and inviability that sustained American hegemony for the past 20 years,

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especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

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And this is really a reordering,

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not just a global economy,

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because this signals the collapse of the petrodollar and with it,

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the entire US dollar-based reserve currency system,

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but also the global hegemony of the United States.

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We're moving towards a multipolar world.

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Professor, this morning, Secretary of War,

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Pete Hegseth, was asked a question about potential ground troops in Iran.

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He refused to rule out that possibility.

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And he said, you know,

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oh, well, we're not gonna project to you what we will or will not do,

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what we don't want to rule anything out,

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we will do what it takes.

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Do you think

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that America will end up invading Iran from the ground since

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it's already becoming relatively clear they won't be able to accomplish the goal of regime change

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or even regime collapse using just air power alone?

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Right.

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So everyone says that the worst calamity

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that could happen in the United States is if it were to send ground troops into Iran.

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At the same time, the United States are committed to regime change in Iran.

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We've never had a

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precedent in history where you were able to regime change from the air alone you need ground troops

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and so unfortunately what's going to happen over the next few months is

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that uh pressure will build on america to send ground troops especially from the gcc countries

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and from israel which are being pounded right now by uh the iranians

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so remember that if the gcc country saudi arabia uh qatar uae Iran,

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if they go, then the petrodollar goes with them.

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So the Americans need to protect these countries.

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And these countries are going to demand that either the Americans bribe the Iranians to seize,

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and this is like $5, $20 in indemnity,

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okay, or send ground troops to wipe out the Iranian threat once and for all.

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And I know that there's no political will for ground troops to be used against Iran among the American people.

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Remember that 70-80% of American people was against initial strikes against Iran in the first place.

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Right.

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And one of the things that really comes into question,

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I think, with all of this,

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sir, when we're looking at the geopolitical picture

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and the sacrificing in much of this from the United States

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on behalf of Israel is kind of a question as to who and what wanted this.

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We were actually curious for your view on a disputed report here from The Washington Post.

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We can put it up here on the screen.

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F3, a push from the Saudis.

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Israel helped move Trump to attack Iran.

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Now, this has been internally disputed by Saudi Arabia,

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saying that they did not push the Trump administration to attack Iran.

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However, this is clearly an authorized leak from our own government

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trying to at least lay some of the blame on behalf of the GCC.

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What do you make of this analysis and of this narrative

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that Saudi Arabia was also trying to be behind this push to bomb Iran?

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So I've always argued that both Saudi Arabia and Israel are heavily invested in regime change in Iran.

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In fact, Saudi Arabia sees Iran as much more of an existential crisis than Israel.

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Because remember, Israel still has nuclear weapons and Israel is a very diverse,

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very sophisticated economy, whereas Saudi Arabia is completely reliant on oil.

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And it's always had problems with Iran because Iran is a theocracy opposed to the Saudi monarchy,

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Iran funds and equips the Houthis,

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which have been antagonistic towards Saudi Arabia for the longest time.

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And right now, the Saudi economy is suffering.

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It's been trying to pivot towards more of a tourist economy.

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That's why they brought in Renato.

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That's why they're switching to e-gaming.

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That's why they're building something called a line, Neom.

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And all these things are not working out.

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So they need to be able to control the oil resources of the entire Middle East

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if they are to survive and thrive as a nation.

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So I do believe that this reporting is credible,

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even though it does make Saudi Arabia look bad.

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But remember, Saudi Arabia says that they wanted peace,

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but they are helping the Israelis and Americans attack Iran right now

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because they're allowing the Air Force Reliefs and Americans to use Saudi airspace.

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So help us understand, because it still feels to me like there are some pieces that don't totally add up.

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You had in advance of this war on Iran,

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you had top military brass up to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff saying,

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this is a really bad idea.

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You know, we are not ready for this.

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You know, all the math on the interceptors that's been talked about for months at this point.

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And yet Trump still decided to go ahead.

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What is the calculus that he was making here that led him to take what,

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you know, already appears to be catastrophic actions?

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Right.

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Okay.

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So this is the key question.

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Why do they do this?

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I think there are three possibilities.

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Okay.

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And I think all three possibilities are valid.

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The first is that of hubris.

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You look at history, this is how empires behave.

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So the Mindoro kidnapping was quick,

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successful, and it was adrenaline rush for Trump.

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And that made him overconfident in the capacity of the American military.

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So hubris is a factor.

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And we see this throughout history.

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Why did Hitler invade Stalin?

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Because he conquered Europe really easily and he thought he was invincible.

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And that led to the destruction of the German army in the Soviet Union.

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So hubris is a factor,

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then you have to look at internal political calculus,

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where even though America does not benefit from this war against Iran,

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Trump himself personally benefits.

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Why?

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Because the Saudis and Israelis are bribing him to attack Iran.

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Remember that the Saudis invested $2 billion in the private equity fund of Jared Kushner,

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who is the son-in-law of Donald Trump,

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and the Israelis through Mayor Adelson have been financing Trump's political career, right?

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So Mayor Adelson a few months back said that she will put up $20 million if Trump were to run a third term.

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So Trump is getting a lot of financial and political support from the Saudis and Israelis.

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Also remember that if this war goes sideways and Trump is forced to use ground troops,

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he will probably get approved from Congress,

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and this will give him emergency war powers,

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which will allow him to influence the midterms.

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So Trump is thinking about a third term.

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And I think at the public box,

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he probably won't get it.

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But if there's a war going on,

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and you can delay elections,

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and you have emergency war powers,

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and people rally around the flag,

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then he probably will get a third term.

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And the last factor that is very important is the eschatological factor where

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if you look at the epson files it's clear

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that we are run by secret societies it's clear

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that the world is run by these uh individuals who have

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a lot of power we don't know who they are

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but they control the military they control the national security apparatus

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and these people we we there are different names for these people uh you can call them the illuminati

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and the illuminati are composed of three major groups okay you have the jesuits who control the Vatican.

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You have the Sepertine Frankists,

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which control the modern state of Israel today.

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You have the Freemasons, which control the national security apparatus of the United States.

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And they believe that Israel,

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this one Middle East, is key to the end times in creating heaven on earth.

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So it's almost like a script that they're following,

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even though it doesn't make any duplicity sense.

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Okay.

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So I would say that these three are the best reasons why this is happening.

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Wow.

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Well, sir, I hope you come back.

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This was very informative, I think, for both of us.

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We deeply appreciate your time.

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Thank you.

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Thank you.

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