Практика Shadowing: DEM SUPERMAJORITY?: WILD Midterm Scenarios IN PLAY - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

Выберите режим практики

Каждый режим открывает полноэкранную комнату практики.

614 предложений

Если предложения слишком короткие или длинные, нажмите Edit, чтобы их изменить.

Good morning, everybody.

Happy Tuesday.

I have an amazing show for everybody today.

What do we have, Crystal?

Indeed, we do.

Deep dive into the midterm elections from a variety of angles.

Logan Phillips is going to join us momentarily to take a look at the numbers.

And OK, let's say we had a polling miss the size of 2016.

What would that look like?

What about 2025 where actually

Democrats were underestimated?

What would that look like?

We will go through all of that with him.

Then we're also going to take a look at the impact specifically of Trump in this election cycle.

Some new numbers are out that show

Republicans are not running ads with his name in it whatsoever.

He's virtually disappeared from the Republican side in terms of their ad campaigns.

Democrats on the other side are talking about him nonstop, so it tells you quite a bit.

At the same time, one of the major issues

that has emerged in the midterm elections is concerns over Trump and Trump family corruption.

J .D.

Vance once again in the hot seat over this as new

revelations have come out alleging a major pay -for -play scheme involving the Kennedy Center.

We'll get into all of that.

We got a soccer special here taking a look at the way that boomers are organizing nationwide against paying property taxes,

having a lot of success in a wide variety of states.

We're also going to take a look at Michigan specifically, where Abdul Al -Sayed seems to have had the most viral clip of the entire campaign.

Some interesting media commentary around that as well.

And then we're going to be rejoined by Daniel Lidd.

He's the mathematician that we had on before to talk about the AI revolution in math

and whether or not he is feeling existential dread over the state of his profession.

Actually, he seems to have a more hopeful outlook.

So excited to dig into that with him.

Yes, that's exactly right.

Before we get to that, though, we had some interesting exchanges.

So we've received some interesting emails over the last couple of weeks.

Let's put this up here on the screen.

These are from our producer, Griffin.

Both of these are from two separate firms who purport to represent CalShea.

And they have emailed us.

This is my personal favorite one.

We hope you're doing well.

We're reaching out to discuss a Q4 partnership between

Breaking Points and CalShea, a federally regulated U .S exchange.

They say Breaking Points is a strong fit for this campaign based on your content and audience.

So it appears that these people think that they can just hire these firms and just blast creators, YouTubers, et cetera.

First of all, they're obviously wasting their money because they've never listened to our show.

But we just wanted to deliver our official response of not only no, but fuck no. We do not want your blood money.

And that is why we have premium subscriptions.

Not now.

Not ever.

Yeah.

Not now.

Not ever.

The business will go under.

Literally.

Yeah.

I'd rather go bankrupt before we take your disgusting money.

And I hope that you people get thrown into prison.

And if I have anything to do with it, that's how we will end up.

So because of all of you, breakingpoints .com, premium subscribers, we are in a position where we can say, no, fuck you.

And so that is our official response to Kalshi.

So yeah, there you go.

And this isn't just a Kalshi thing.

This is for anybody who wants us to do an ad read, be it Manscaped or any of these people,

but in particular, these literal scum of the earth over at these gambling companies.

And then, so with that, we also have, we need your help.

So I don't game.

I've never played GTA.

I hear it's big.

Let's put this up here on the screen.

So this advertisement was placed in Miami.

And apparently in this universe, there is something called Weasel News.

And - It like played, this is according to Griffin.

This is according to Griffin.

It like plays in the cars that you steal.

Right, it plays in the cars that you steal.

Anyway, so they have apparently for the first time, these hosts of Weasel News.

Now, a lot of people, many friends, people who don't watch the show, like any of that, they're like, dude, this is literally you.

So what do you guys think?

I personally, I don't see it.

I see it in Crystal's case.

You see it in my case?

Oh, I see it so much more in your case.

I don't see it.

I just don't see it.

So a few things.

First of all, they would have been doing the graphics a number of years ago.

There's a point that Griffin made.

And I used to have that haircut.

You did have it.

And I used to wear the big earrings like that as well.

And I know that you have that dress.

Now my earrings are a little more tame.

I do have a little bit of a bigger pair on today, but my earrings are typically a little more restrained these days.

That's true.

The outfits are totally as, you literally have that tie.

I do own that exact tie.

And you used to wear it.

100

And I used to wear it all the time.

101

A lot.

102

Five years ago.

103

That's true.

104

Talk to me about the glasses.

105

Okay, but everybody, a lot of people wear these.

106

Well, obviously, number one, I'm not black.

107

That seems to be like the biggest ever.

108

It's not right.

109

Like, obviously, they wouldn't do exactly us.

110

I'm also not, I don't know if that, if she's like Asian or Latino, some sort of like racially ambiguous.

111

I don't know but they you know it's drawing inspirate

112

that like it very much looks like the pocket square

113

and the tie and that shade of blue i i do actually own that exact outfit so i i I don't know.

114

I don't know.

115

All right.

116

So when the game comes out, we'll take a listen.

117

We'll let us know.

118

You let us know.

119

You guys let us know what you think.

120

Is it us or not?

121

I truly, like I said, I've never played this video game in my entire life.

122

I'm not going to play it.

123

I guess I wish you guys all the best.

124

But yeah, let us know.

125

Let us know in the comment section.

126

If it is, I at least know enough to know that it's a great honor.

127

So thank you.

128

And for increasing the profile.

129

Even if it's, yeah, like caricature, ish or mockery, whatever.

130

Yeah, whatever.

131

It's in the culture.

132

Yeah, it's one of the biggest cultural,

133

you know, I know enough to know that every guy who I know is going to take work off or whatever.

134

There's already an estimate

135

that the U .S is going to lose like hundreds of billions of dollars in productivity on a day

136

or the week or whatever after the game comes out.

137

OK, so with all that preamble, with our screw you to Calci, with our plea for whether that is us or not,

138

according to you guys, let's get to our interview with the great Logan Phillips.

139

We're very excited now to be joined by our great friend, Logan Phillips of racetothewhitehouse .com.

140

It's good to see you, Logan.

141

Thanks for joining us, man.

142

Hey, great to be on as always.

143

All right.

144

So our weekly check -in, let's go ahead and put a three up here on the screen.

145

Here's what we've got now so far from Logan's website.

146

Tell us a little bit about where things look in your current forecast, Senate, House, and governor's races.

147

Well, this is a really unique election in that it's kind of battlefield America.

148

We're seeing places in play all across the map, ranging from Maine to Nebraska and Kansas.

149

And so we have both a chance for historic election for Democrats where they can sweep the map.

150

And there's also a chance here where they don't gain that much in the Senate.

151

And they only pick up a little bit in governor races.

152

So that's what kind of makes this race interesting, is because they're overperforming so much in red areas, boy, does that increase their maximum potential.

153

But you could come up short, gaining a lot of ground,

154

as Hillary Clinton did in places like Arizona and Texas if you don't win doesn't get you much.

155

Right.

156

Makes sense.

157

So we wanted to dig into this question of a potential polling miss at this point

158

because we've touched on this with you before, but we wanted to do it in a bit of a more systematic way and say,

159

OK, if we had the polling miss of 2016, what would that look like if we had one like 2022 or 2025?

160

What would that look like?

161

Let me go and start with a New York Times analysis.

162

This is from Nate Cohn.

163

I can put this up on the screen and we can get your sort of overall view here.

164

He says polls show Democrats ahead.

165

Are they quote, right this time.

166

And, you know, he has proper level of skepticism, as we all should.

167

The polls are not going to be exactly correct.

168

They will likely be off in one direction or the other.

169

He does, however, point out that the polls have been closer in midterm elections.

170

And in fact, at times they have underestimated

171

Democrats in midterm elections, and they dramatically underestimated

172

Democrats in the 2025 gubernatorial elections, both in Virginia and New Jersey.

173

So what is your sort of overall view of your level of confidence in the polls right now

174

and some of the things that you're paying attention to before we get into the specific numbers?

175

I would say that you can't just look at the polls here.

176

All of the indicators to me look really good for Democrats.

177

First, they did an outstanding job in these special elections.

178

And I think that's true also if you combine that with what happened in California and Washington.

179

They were outperforming expectations if it were like a neutral cycle by like eight points.

180

Wow.

181

And since then, the environment has moved in their direction by like a point or two.

182

So you have that and you also have the fundraising.

183

Now, I know that's not going to sound right at first because if you're talking about the super PACs, then Republicans have a big advantage.

184

But the actual donations to candidates from individuals, which is a better indicator and more predictive of candidate success, Democrats have been swamping

185

Republicans in race after race.

186

You mean like small dollar donations?

187

Just regular donations that exclude PAC money or self -funding.

188

And why is that?

189

Just like that it's voter enthusiasm, it's grassroots?

190

I think it's a combination of two things.

191

One, frankly, I think

192

Democrats, that is their bread and butter these days.

193

And Republicans have gotten a little less active on campaigning on fundraising

194

because they know they're going to get it from the PACs.

195

But it's also separate from that.

196

I think it's a sign of enthusiasm.

197

And this does make my personal forecast a lot more accurate when you take this into account.

198

So maybe that's not true anymore with the era of PAC money, but I still think it says something about the quality of the candidates

199

and the quality of their operation and the base enthusiasm that

200

Democrats have, which I think is still higher.

201

Yeah, well, we were talking before we turned the cameras on about Kansas and Roger Marshall.

202

And, you know, this is a race that, going into the cycle, no one,

203

including Roger Marshall, would have thought that this seat would have been in play.

204

He's barely raising any money at all to his Senate campaign at this late date after you very much know

205

that he has a real race on his hands.

206

Yeah, this isn't even like Nebraska last year where people weren't taking it seriously to the end.

207

And maybe you guys were on it.

208

Yeah, no way.

209

Most people weren't uh everyone's been talking about kansas for months except it seems roger marshall

210

because i don't know what he's doing i don't know how he's raised

211

that little it's baffling to me like you'd think someone would come in

212

and just rescue him and bring him along to fundraisers

213

and more than the pitiful amount he's gotten

214

so yeah he's relying on outside money

215

and to some degree like we see this every cycle that

216

when there's a huge wave the people

217

that loses them the most on the very far fringes are candidates

218

that um have been saved their whole career

219

that have never tried to have to actually win swing voters yes maybe

220

they did their first time yeah that's why when you go that's why

221

when you're like oh how does he not raise any money he's never had to yeah

222

you just you win the primary

223

and that's it it's over you need a few token million dollars and you get the r next to your name,

224

everybody checks the box and you get to move on, right?

225

You buy your house in Washington, you don't think about it.

226

You put your kids in a Washington high school because you're never going to leave, right?

227

Like that's literally the mindset of these people.

228

One important part of the Nate Cohn thing before we move on is the big question to me is these red states.

229

Like it's the Kansas, it's the South Carolinas, and it's the others where you had the similar kind of enthusiasm going into 2018,

230

but at the end of the day, the Republicans come home.

231

What meaningfully makes today's race different than that race at the time?

232

Yeah, I think it's definitely different.

233

I just don't know if it's different enough for Democrats to win.

234

I think they're going to win Texas.

235

And I think Kansas is a toss up.

236

But voters are really frustrated with the Republican Party.

237

And this includes some genuine

238

Republicans and a lot of our leaning independents.

239

This does not mean that everyone's turn would often be framed as such.

240

That's not true.

241

But a sizable portion in a coalition in elections that are as competitive as America, which might be the most competitive in the world that's massive

242

and so uh it's you know this is the problem for Republicans

243

that they're rallying call for Donald Trump that everyone

244

and most voters in the party buy into is

245

that the system is not working for them they already felt

246

that in their lives but it's been doubled down on messaging time

247

and time again that politicians are corrupt that people are not putting them first

248

and then now they're seeing those same things being done by the president that thought was going to change things.

249

I think that has gotten more people to start to question things.

250

And the thing about Trump is once you start to question him, a lot of the things that you just dismiss because they're

251

Trump being Trump start to really get on your nerves.

252

Yeah, it's true.

253

All right, let's dig now into the numbers.

254

Let's put this first graphic up on the screen.

255

Okay, so what we asked you to do here is to take the current polling average in all of the Senate races.

256

That's the column that you see here on the left for Alaska, Florida, Georgia, et cetera, on down the line.

257

And these are all of the races that are even colorably interesting in the Senate.

258

And then to apply to it, what if the pollsters are off by the average amount they were off in 2016?

259

Now, 2016 and 2020, there was a very similar polling miss.

260

They underestimated Republicans by, what was it?

261

It was about, what, three points?

262

Yeah, roughly right about three points.

263

So what do we see if we have a similar polling miss as what we saw in 2016 and in 2020?

264

Yeah, what would happen is the Senate would become a battleground of a different nature.

265

It kind of flips.

266

Democrats would have about a 30 percent chance instead of about a 70 percent chance in the Senate

267

because Republicans would be on track for basically keeping everything the same.

268

They would lose

269

North Carolina, still reasonably cleanly, but they would pick up Michigan, Ohio.

270

And when I say pick up, I want to be clear.

271

This would be so close that it basically isn't really even picking up.

272

It just means it's a straight down the middle race.

273

Michigan would be separated by 0 .01%.

274

Wow.

275

Oh, my gosh.

276

God forbid.

277

That's like a horrible situation.

278

And Ohio, you have by 0 .1%.

279

So if the 0 .01 and the 0 .1 holds, you end up with Republicans holding onto the Senate, narrowly holding onto the Senate,

280

even in the realm where you have that level of miss that, you know, where

281

Republicans are underestimated.

282

Yeah, and that's on paper, right?

283

So you have those two races, which I think are basically tied, right?

284

So they could go either way.

285

And then you have Alaska and Texas, which would be around a percent difference or less.

286

So the thing is, this miss never happens across the same, almost every one of these years.

287

Even when there's a huge polling miss, there's gonna be a race where there's an exception that goes the other way and someone's underrated.

288

So Republicans would be clearly favored to win the Senate in this scenario, but Democrats would still have a fighting chance.

289

Yeah.

290

Interesting.

291

Okay.

292

So let's steel man this, too.

293

So 2016, why were the polls wrong?

294

You know, a lot of our audience is young.

295

They may not even know they were in high school or something like that.

296

Why were they wrong?

297

Give us a reach into my 2016 brain here.

298

I know, especially for those of us who had to sit through those long

299

New York Times profiles about white people in Ohio or whatever at a diner.

300

But yeah, go ahead.

301

Yeah.

302

Well, the reason they won is that people under people miss what was happening in 2016 going into the election,

303

which is that trump brought a ton of new voters

304

that were disproportionately white didn't vote too often uh didn't have college degrees who felt they were left behind

305

and trump's whole campaign was you're getting screwed and i'm going to change things and it motivated a lot of new people

306

You know, they figured that out in 2008

307

because maybe the first black president made it a little more obvious

308

that black voters were going to turn out at high levels.

309

But they completely missed the ball in 16.

310

And then in 2020, which was also a big miss, you had, I think a lot of this came down to COVID.

311

Some of the same problems repeated themselves, but also Democrats were home way more than Republicans in a way

312

that might not ever repeat itself in that type of dynamic.

313

And so what do you mean by that?

314

Like how?

315

Who was more likely to answer the phone?

316

The person that was worried about the pandemic.

317

Right, right.

318

Right.

319

The white collar worker at home.

320

Right.

321

Democrats, core base, excited to tell pollsters how much they hate Donald Trump.

322

Yes.

323

And so even though Biden ends up winning when we were covering that together, I mean, it was looking like,

324

oh, it's going to be a bloodbath.

325

Right.

326

And it's not going to be anywhere close.

327

And then it was very close.

328

OK, so let's bring our minds forward a little bit in time now to 2022 too.

329

Economic numbers, Biden's in the presidency, economic numbers are not looking great.

330

People are dissatisfied.

331

Everyone's thinking, oh, it's going to be a red wave.

332

Now, the polls never showed a blowout for Republicans, but we were all kind of applying our 2016 -2020 mind saying,

333

oh, well, if the polls show

334

Republicans leading, it's going to be Republicans by even more than that.

335

So the general consensus was a red wave is coming, and then it did not arrive.

336

And in fact, the polls underestimated

337

Democrats by a bit in that particular cycle, by about three and a half points in that cycle.

338

So here we have the numbers for 2022.

339

What you see here is that if you have that level of a polling miss underestimating

340

Democrats, it becomes quite a blowout on the Democratic side.

341

You have states that are flipping that you never would have imagined before obviously you've got Iowa flipping.

342

You've got Kansas going.

343

And not by really that narrow of a margin.

344

You have the Democrat winning by four points in Kansas.

345

You have South Carolina going blue by two and a half points.

346

And of course, Texas, James Tallarico would prevail by almost six points.

347

So that is another possibility that is on the table here.

348

Yeah.

349

And that's why this is honestly, when you guys messaged me about this last night,

350

it was a brilliant idea because it shows exactly what we're dealing with the map is

351

so broad we haven't experienced this before at least i haven't

352

because i wasn't paying that much attention in 2006

353

when i was 13

354

so this is definitely an election where uh these races could be in play

355

because they're over performing so much in these red areas and

356

if they just do a little better than with the poll

357

so just a little better they can cash in on a historic level uh

358

that would change the next six years of our politics yeah so let's talk through the structural things again, what happened with that miss?

359

So with that miss, I mean, generally I remember I used to say like,

360

you know, the breaking points rule is you take a Republican number and you add five to it or something like that.

361

You know, I was like, Jesus, you know, you'd seen too much at this point.

362

Yeah.

363

It's like, oh, well, and then of course that was the one year the rule completely falls apart.

364

Structurally what happened?

365

Because I've actually seen some people say, hey, if you paid attention to the special elections, the ingredients were all there.

366

You should have just if you just looked at that you could have predicted democratic overperformance.

367

That's kind of what I did Yeah, okay.

368

So all right.

369

So but then what did everybody else miss?

370

What were the structural ingredients for what went wrong in that race?

371

I think they missed that the change had happened and look this is just part of the human condition

372

We always overlearn the lessons from the last big thing that happened I mean, you know, I'm bringing a little broad here,

373

but Mistakes followed from World War one caused

374

World War two.

375

Sure.

376

Sure, right America always goes from excessively

377

interventionalist to completely losing sight of the world to getting too confident that now we're in Iraq, now we're in Iran, et cetera, right?

378

So this is the same thing that happens with people talking about politics.

379

And if you want to be better than the conventional wisdom, that's literally all you need to do.

380

Well, it's not all you need to do,

381

but it will help, is just recognize that everyone else is over -indexing for what they literally just saw yesterday.

382

And that's what happened in 22, because there were really big signs in that

383

Republicans are doing quite well special elections

384

and they were doing a lot better in the polling

385

and then the bottom started to fall out after row

386

and they started nominating candidates like doug mastriano in pennsylvania right

387

that were talking about kicking voters off the rolls as a central campaign message

388

and banning abortion in places where voters disagreed with that and

389

so that conjecture that wasn't every candidate

390

but we had a lot of those candidates disproportionately in swing races

391

i feel like even more than in just red races and

392

so republicans weren't able to take advantage i also think

393

and this is a huge contrast with this year joe biden

394

did not force democrats to stick with him all the time a lot of them separated themselves oh yeah

395

now we're probably literally complained to them on the phone in leaked audio

396

but yeah yeah but he didn't say it you know he did it in a normal way right

397

which is the president grumbles and is doesn't take it is not happy

398

that all these people especially if this is their second term that they personally recruited to run and we're

399

in theory inspired by him or her

400

and then now they're like running for the hills trying to avoid them like crazy yeah

401

that probably drives all presidents crazy because they all have egos

402

but they're at the end of the day

403

they want to win the senate they put it aside trump's made it way harder

404

and you see ashley henson in iowa for example toss a brace

405

but she was losing earlier and now it's basically tied

406

and that's because i think in part she's done a really good job of

407

saying she wants to be bipartisan creating her own brand

408

that's separate from the party michelle Tafoya is doing the same thing in Minnesota.

409

It's a very tough year to run, but she's way over performing the rest of her party.

410

Susan Collins does that.

411

That's not what most

412

Republicans are doing.

413

And so that could be the thing that sinks a lot of these people.

414

Interesting.

415

All right.

416

So now let's talk 2025.

417

Now this may surprise people because, well, first of all, there were just fewer elections.

418

It's just basically Virginia and New Jersey have their gubernatorial elections.

419

And because the polls were directionally correct, they showed a victory for the Democrats in both cases.

420

I don't think people really processed how much of a miss it was, but let's put this up on the screen.

421

This of the years we're focused on here was actually the largest polling miss.

422

It was about 8 .1 % of a miss, underestimating Democrats.

423

Okay, so now we're getting really wild.

424

Okay, if we had a polling miss in 2026 that was the same as the polling miss in 2025,

425

so just last year with Virginia and New Jersey, you would end up with Democrats having a super majority in the Senate,

426

something that seems impossible, I think is probably very unlikely.

427

But if you did apply that same polling miss from just last year, that is what you would end up with.

428

Yeah.

429

Now, this type of miss is more likely to happen when it's a special, it's an off -year election.

430

It's sort of like halfway to a special election because the turnout gap can be bigger.

431

And so that's harder to estimate.

432

Is that what's going on there? yeah it's harder to estimate

433

and you're more likely just to have a big miss with

434

two races than you are with like 35 right um

435

that being said I mean look this is like the best case scenario for Democrats

436

it's unlikely this would be a historic miss

437

but there's like a five to you know somewhere between a

438

five to ten percent chance of this type of thing happening uh

439

and in this scenario look we've incredibly limited polling in this admittedly

440

but based off the small polling we have Mrs. Hippie in Louisiana would I believe flip in this map

441

so that's crazy that's totally nuts really wild yeah i'm not

442

i'm not there yet it's like you said it's a five

443

but but like again structural ingredients i think that's what we got to try to look at like

444

when i look at your map for example

445

and you have toss up in kansas toss up in iowa

446

and toss up in alaska already these are such dramatic problems

447

and a lot of things have to go right

448

so i think bigger question is how much of this is uh local

449

or national like you've talked previously here candidate quality how it

450

really matters in particular for texas like talarico right like i feel i i personally think

451

if cornyn was the nominee he would probably win but

452

and i don't think he would win by a lot to be clear

453

it would be maybe even less than ted cruz

454

and beto it might be one

455

or 0 .5 i'm just like yeah i feel like enough of the traditional people are just going to come home.

456

But I opened the paper this morning and I'm looking at the Dallas Morning News, who my whole life endorses John Cornyn,

457

is like, where would James tell him?

458

Now, is that going to swing a ton of people?

459

No. But it's indicative of, I know these are upper crust rich people who send their kids to SMU.

460

They're holding their nose and they're like, I'm going to Tallarico.

461

That doesn't happen with John Cornyn, in my opinion.

462

So that's my question, is how much of this is local candidate quality and then how much of it is national?

463

Because for a lot of years, it didn't really matter who the candidates were by plus or minus two, something like that.

464

Because at the end of the day, whoever's in the Senate, you're voting for Trump or you're not.

465

And that really matters, right?

466

In terms of who that person is.

467

What have you seen in your analysis?

468

Yeah, I think it's both.

469

I mean, you're not talking about Alaska being in play, even with Paltola running, if this environment was tepidly bad for Republicans, but not terrible.

470

Interesting.

471

That being said, look, this is my hot take, and maybe I'm going to look dumb for this,

472

But I genuinely believe that we're getting a little less polarized after a sprinting in the other direction.

473

What I mean by that, to put in English, is voters have been less willing to break with their party.

474

And so red states vote redder, blue states vote bluer.

475

And we feel like we're long past the era where you saw

476

Democrats representing places like Missouri and South Dakota and Republicans winning a lot of blue places as well.

477

And so maybe that's going to change a little bit.

478

Yeah.

479

Because people don't like either party.

480

They think the whole system is wrong.

481

That is like the consensus across America.

482

And candidate quality might mean a little bit more.

483

Yeah, I mean, I could see it.

484

Look, the one thing

485

that you have to accept in politics is whenever you get sort of like a mental frame of what's going on, things shift.

486

So I could definitely see that.

487

You know, I want to talk a little bit more about all of the polling misses

488

and try if we can to put some theories together.

489

So it certainly seems like there is something about when Trump is on the ballot, pollsters underestimate his support, his support specifically.

490

Whereas the midterm elections, it's been more of a mixed bag.

491

And in fact, I mean, these two midterm elections, the most recent, the 2022 midterm and the 2025 off -year election, they underestimated Democrats.

492

And look, pollsters are human beings.

493

They want to try to adjust things.

494

They have gotten a lot more shit for underestimating

495

Republicans than they have for underestimating Democrats ultimately.

496

So do you think

497

that part of the reason why the midterm polls have been wrong in the opposite direction is because of pollster overcorrection,

498

trying to make sure this time we don't underestimate Republicans?

499

Yeah, I think that could be part of it.

500

And also, like, I just want to say on the 2022 map, I forgot to say this before.

501

Part of this is because we're using real clear politics, which does tend to have a Republican bias.

502

I don't know if that's because they were embarrassed about 2020

503

and trying to overcorrect because they didn't include some like very good polling in New Hampshire.

504

The poll they called, the pollster they called the best

505

that released the poll two days before the election

506

because it would have moved their average to showing Maggie Hassan winning the race.

507

And like, so their miss was a lot bigger than other people that year, to be fair.

508

That makes sense.

509

Isn't that the year all these random

510

Republican pollsters came out of the woodwork?

511

Yeah, if you can make adjustments for that and start instituting bias checks, like that's the downside of RCP versus, you know, myself and Nate Silver,

512

is that they don't correct for partisan pollsters and they do like three

513

or four and it's kind of open for interpretation of the most recent polls.

514

And so, like, if you're just including all of them and two of them are Republican pollsters, you're more at risk of making a sudden mess.

515

That being said, like, I think part of this is

516

that pollsters' job has gotten way harder because I think the answer rate for polls by phone is,

517

like, less than 10 % of what it was in 2016.

518

It was surging down at that point, too.

519

Because people, when you get a ring and call, like, we remember when we were younger, you usually answered it.

520

Now it's, well, five years ago, it used to be a scammer now it's AI, you know, pretending to be your grandma asking for money.

521

I've got six layers before I answer a phone call.

522

Like, I went to the carrier to block unknown numbers.

523

I have a screener.

524

Like, if I'm answering your phone call, it's, you're a real person.

525

I can't be the only person who's like, I've paid money for apps that will block robocalls.

526

I answer the random numbers because I need someone to so that these polls are better.

527

Oh, fair.

528

You're part of the polling bias.

529

Yeah.

530

Let me ask you this, Logan.

531

And so if we understand the limitations of the polls, we understand that we've had a variety of misses in a variety of directions.

532

What other things are you looking at?

533

What are when you say the fundamentals?

534

What do we mean here?

535

And is there anything you're looking at?

536

People are starting to parse through the early vote data, which I always think is a little bit of a dicey proposition,

537

especially if you don't know what.

538

I mean, I'm not I'm looking at it.

539

I'm an early vote crack addict.

540

I just I can't get it.

541

And we are going to try to do a segment.

542

Anyway, putting that aside, what are you seeing right now that you think people should be paying attention to?

543

I'll tell you, I'll put my cards on the table.

544

I was saying yesterday in our planning call that we need to get a graphic that's just like the gas prices,

545

the average today, what it was a week ago, what it was a year ago, what it is for diesel,

546

because I don't know that there's any better indicator of the mood of the country

547

and where we're likely to end up on Election Day.

548

So that's my, you know, simple heuristic.

549

What are the sorts of things that you're specifically looking at?

550

Yeah, I actually haven't looked at the early vote this year.

551

And I'll be honest, I'm a little scarred for life from it because in 2016,

552

my friend that worked at the DNC was giving me all this information.

553

He was so confident about how amazing Clinton was going to do after the strong numbers in Miami, which actually went amazing for Democrats.

554

They just did everywhere.

555

They did horrible literally everywhere else in the state.

556

Right.

557

Or at least in the northern parts of the state, I should say.

558

But like, I think it's so easy to see what you want to see voting patterns change.

559

Democrats might even be scared about the mail -in ballots after

560

Trump was up to some stuff trying to change the rules and it wasn't successful.

561

Like this could all change the way people vote cycle to cycle.

562

And so drawing these big conclusions from it, it literally might be a signal that

563

Democrats have decided how much they're going to spend in early GOTV, right?

564

And trying to bank in some votes in mail

565

or how much Donald Trump has decided to encourage or discourage people from the mail -in ballots.

566

Well, I remember for Democrats, 2024, the lines were out the door in Northern Virginia.

567

They were like, oh my God, look at those Democrats.

568

Trump wins all states.

569

Including, by the way, like his margin in Virginia is like higher than that.

570

Oh, well, even worse than looking at the early vote data is like,

571

looking at like, oh, there's a long line in Fairfax County at this point.

572

You know, I mean, that's really, not that I won't do that.

573

I was going to say, I'm still, I'm still there but because we're just so desperate for anything.

574

Okay, so early vote, you're like, just don't even look at it.

575

Yeah, but I will so I can answer your question better next time.

576

But I will say, anecdotally, looking on Twitter, you see people cherry picking,

577

you know, I'll see the same state analyzed in totally polar opposite directions.

578

So putting aside early vote, what else are you looking at?

579

Yeah, honestly, I like doing a combination of quantitative and qualitative.

580

and they're just between personal conversations focus groups i've listened to there is

581

so much frustration with a lot of trump voters

582

and i don't necessarily like some of this has actually died in the wool republicans

583

but especially soft trump voters yeah they just are not happy with what's being delivered

584

it's sort of a crisis for them about who they're going to vote for

585

and so these conversations are very much reflecting what i'm seeing in all these other indicators

586

and i genuinely think that means something i think you got to combine

587

that with the data because you're not going to talk to everyone you're just not

588

so you're no person in america unless they're traveling all over

589

is going to have a proper read of the whole country yeah

590

but i'm also really hearing this from folks that um both first

591

and second hand they're in places like southern texas in the rio grande valley whose family always votes for republicans

592

but this year like they are just so frustrated with what they've seen from ICE, what they've dealt with with prices,

593

that they're going to flip for Tallarico.

594

And so like, and some for Hina Josa, like this is definitely happening.

595

Again, it's a question of how much and how much decides who actually is going to win these races.

596

But I think it's really clear that the movement is real.

597

Interesting.

598

Well, if you want another data point, off our YouTube analytics alone, I thought Trump was going to win.

599

And now off of our YouTube analytics, I'm like, it's going to be 60 seats for the Democrats.

600

What do you mean when you say that?

601

Well, you can just tell, like general like what people are looking at like oh what's getting the click rate what generally uh

602

you know people are into what oh yeah you know things like

603

that don't read them we don't read them

604

but it's uh in general you know in terms of the reports

605

that we get back and then also the shareable the like ratio all

606

that other stuff i'm like yeah i mean look people call it the podcast election

607

so it's like take it for something right yeah in terms of how that looks

608

so anyway yeah a little peek behind the curtain for everybody okay uh let's get to the next part with the gop

609

Hey, if you liked that video, hit the like button or leave a comment below.

610

It really helps get the show to more people.

611

And if you'd like to get the full show ad -free and in your inbox every morning, you can sign up at breakingpoints .com.

612

That's right.

613

Get the full show.

614

Help support the future of independent media at breakingpoints .com.

Скачать приложение

Всё для свободной речи

ИИ-оценка произношенияОценка каждой фразы

Практика IPAОсвойте каждый звук

СловарьСоберите свой словарный запас

Игра со словамиУчитесь играя

Сканировать QR

Download on theApp Store Get it onGoogle Play

Тот же канал

FOR YOU

Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку

Этот урок разговорной практики построен на видео «DEM SUPERMAJORITY?: WILD Midterm Scenarios IN PLAY». В этом видео 614 предложений и 6771 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 31:59. Говорящий говорит быстро, около 212 слов в минуту, поэтому звуки часто сливаются и сокращаются. 86% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка; остальные стоит разобрать перед занятием.

Ключевая лексика этого видео

15 слов из видео, которые стоит выучить, с произношением и значением:

Слово	Произношение	Значение
poll существительное	/poʊl/	опро́с
underestimate глагол	/ʌndɚˈɛs.tɪ.meɪt/	недооце́нивать, недооцени́ть
voter существительное	/ˈvoʊtɚ/	избира́тель, избира́тельница
toss глагол	/tɔs/	броса́ть, подбра́сывать
flip глагол	/flɪp/	перевора́чивать, переверну́ть
enthusiasm существительное	/ɪnˈθuziæzəm/	энтузиа́зм, воодушевле́ние
indicator существительное	/ˈɪn.dɪˌkeɪ.tə(ɹ)/	индика́тор, указа́тель
swing глагол	/ˈswɪŋ/	кача́ться, раска́чиваться
estimate существительное	/ˈɛs.tɪ.mət/	оце́нка
scenario существительное	/sɪˈnɛəɹioʊ/	сцена́рий
bias существительное	/ˈbaɪ.əs/	предубежде́ние, предвзя́тость
structural прилагательное	/ˈstɹʌk(t͡)ʃəɹəl/	структу́рный
ballot существительное	/ˈbælət/	голосова́ние, волеизъявле́ние
donation существительное	/doʊˈneɪʃən/	поже́ртвование, дар
ingredient существительное	/ɪnˈɡɹiːdi.ənt/	составна́я часть, ингредие́нт

Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите

Слово	Произношение	Значение
pick up глагол		подбира́ть, подобра́ть
come out глагол	/ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/	выходи́ть, вы́йти
end up глагол		зака́нчиваться, зако́нчиться
go ahead глагол	/ˌɡoʊ əˈhɛd/	дава́й, приступа́йте
come down to глагол		спадать до
come up глагол		поднима́ться, подня́ться
fall apart глагол		распада́ться, распа́сться
fall out глагол		выпада́ть, вы́пасть

Фразы, которые стоит повторять

Короткие законченные фразы из видео, которые пригодятся в повседневном разговоре:

You see it in my case?
Is it us or not?
You mean like small dollar donations?
What have you seen in your analysis?
What other things are you looking at?

Грамматика в этом видео

Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:

Конструкция	В видео
«Used to» used to + глагол — прошлая привычка или состояние, которых больше нет	used to have · used to wear · used to say
Present Perfect Continuous have/has been + -ing — действие началось раньше и продолжается	have been swamping · everyone's been talking
Условные предложения if + предложение, will/would + глагол — условие и его результат	if cornyn was the nominee he would probably
Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас	has emerged · have come · we've received

Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание

Говорящий использует 161 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например don't, I'm, you're. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.

Звуки «th»: enthusiasm /ɪnˈθuziæzəm/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/
Звуки «sh» и «zh»: structural /ˈstɹʌk(t͡)ʃəɹəl/, donation /doʊˈneɪʃən/, partnership /ˈpɑɹtnɚʃɪp/, contrast /kənˈt(ʃ)ɹæst/, conclusion /kənˈkluːʒən/
Длинные слова — следите за ударением: underestimate /ʌndɚˈɛs.tɪ.meɪt/, enthusiasm /ɪnˈθuziæzəm/, indicator /ˈɪn.dɪˌkeɪ.tə(ɹ)/, ingredient /ɪnˈɡɹiːdi.ənt/, genuinely /ˈd͡ʒɛn.ju.ɪn.li/

Звуки, трудные для русскоязычных:

/w/ — губы округлены, это не /v/: swing /ˈswɪŋ/, worker /ˈwɝ.kɚ/, whereas /(h)wɛɹˈæz/, wisdom /ˈwɪzdəm/, virtually /ˈvɚ.t͡ʃə.wə.li/
/h/ — лёгкий выдох, а не русское «х»: horrible /ˈhɔɹ.ɪ.bəl/, whereas /(h)wɛɹˈæz/, hire /ˈhaɪɹ/, halfway /ˌhæfˈweɪ/, whatsoever /ˌ(h)wʌtsoʊˈɛvɚ/
Звонкие согласные в конце слова — не оглушайте их: encourage /ɪnˈkʌɹ.ɪd͡ʒ/, mood /muːd/, whereas /(h)wɛɹˈæz/, arrive /əˈɹaɪv/, pretend /pɹəˈtɛnd/

Как заниматься с этим видео

Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
Начните со скорости 0,75×, повторяйте предложение за предложением и вернитесь к обычной скорости, когда станет легко.
Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как poll, underestimate, voter.

Что такое техника Shadowing?

Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.

Техника шедоуинга: читать полное пошаговое руководство →

Практика Shadowing: DEM SUPERMAJORITY?: WILD Midterm Scenarios IN PLAY - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

Выберите режим практики

Скачать приложение

Тот же канал

'VIRTUALLY ALL' US Missiles USED In Iran War

Spirit Airlines GOES BUST After Jet Fuel $$ Doubles

John Mearsheimer: Why Russia Might NUKE Europe

Professor Jiang Predicts: US WILL LOSE Iran War

SOCIETAL COLLAPSE: US Reading Test SCORES PLUNGE

Рекомендуемое видео

Five things you need to know for the 2026 midterms | America, Actually

We Let $200 GPT-Pro Think for 7 Days on Unsolved Math

Gen Z and The American Dream | Surrounded Follow Up w/Maxwell Frost

‘We don’t have months’: Bernie Sanders sounds alarm on AI's 'extinction' threat

Untangling Signals of Market Stress

Sec Growth DataScience staff meeting Sep 14 2022

Mamdani Takes On Trump, ICE and Musk in Independence Day Speech

Trump PANICS As US Military RUNS OUT OF MONEY!! | The Kyle Kulinski Show

Sen. Tillis warns that without checks and balances, U.S. democracy is at risk | 60 Minutes

MAGA Conspiracy About James Talarico BACKFIRES MASSIVELY, Will He Sue For Defamation?

White House holds briefing as Iran tensions fuel fears of wider conflict

Sometimes John Oliver Wants to ‘Burn Everything Down’ | The Interview

Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку

Ключевая лексика этого видео

Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите

Фразы, которые стоит повторять

Грамматика в этом видео

Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание

Как заниматься с этим видео

Что такое техника Shadowing?