Pratique du Shadowing: DEM SUPERMAJORITY?: WILD Midterm Scenarios IN PLAY - Apprendre l'anglais à l'oral avec la vidéo
Choisissez un mode d'entraînement
Chaque mode ouvre une salle d'entraînement en plein écran.
614 phrases
Si les phrases sont trop courtes ou trop longues, cliquez sur Edit pour les ajuster.
1
Good morning, everybody.
2
Happy Tuesday.
3
I have an amazing show for everybody today.
4
What do we have, Crystal?
5
Indeed, we do.
6
Deep dive into the midterm elections from a variety of angles.
7
Logan Phillips is going to join us momentarily to take a look at the numbers.
8
And OK, let's say we had a polling miss the size of 2016.
9
What would that look like?
10
What about 2025 where actually
11
Democrats were underestimated?
12
What would that look like?
13
We will go through all of that with him.
14
Then we're also going to take a look at the impact specifically of Trump in this election cycle.
15
Some new numbers are out that show
16
Republicans are not running ads with his name in it whatsoever.
17
He's virtually disappeared from the Republican side in terms of their ad campaigns.
18
Democrats on the other side are talking about him nonstop, so it tells you quite a bit.
19
At the same time, one of the major issues
20
that has emerged in the midterm elections is concerns over Trump and Trump family corruption.
21
J .D.
22
Vance once again in the hot seat over this as new
23
revelations have come out alleging a major pay -for -play scheme involving the Kennedy Center.
24
We'll get into all of that.
25
We got a soccer special here taking a look at the way that boomers are organizing nationwide against paying property taxes,
26
having a lot of success in a wide variety of states.
27
We're also going to take a look at Michigan specifically, where Abdul Al -Sayed seems to have had the most viral clip of the entire campaign.
28
Some interesting media commentary around that as well.
29
And then we're going to be rejoined by Daniel Lidd.
30
He's the mathematician that we had on before to talk about the AI revolution in math
31
and whether or not he is feeling existential dread over the state of his profession.
32
Actually, he seems to have a more hopeful outlook.
33
So excited to dig into that with him.
34
Yes, that's exactly right.
35
Before we get to that, though, we had some interesting exchanges.
36
So we've received some interesting emails over the last couple of weeks.
37
Let's put this up here on the screen.
38
These are from our producer, Griffin.
39
Both of these are from two separate firms who purport to represent CalShea.
40
And they have emailed us.
41
This is my personal favorite one.
42
We hope you're doing well.
43
We're reaching out to discuss a Q4 partnership between
44
Breaking Points and CalShea, a federally regulated U .S exchange.
45
They say Breaking Points is a strong fit for this campaign based on your content and audience.
46
So it appears that these people think that they can just hire these firms and just blast creators, YouTubers, et cetera.
47
First of all, they're obviously wasting their money because they've never listened to our show.
48
But we just wanted to deliver our official response of not only no, but fuck no. We do not want your blood money.
49
And that is why we have premium subscriptions.
50
Not now.
51
Not ever.
52
Yeah.
53
Not now.
54
Not ever.
55
The business will go under.
56
Literally.
57
Yeah.
58
I'd rather go bankrupt before we take your disgusting money.
59
And I hope that you people get thrown into prison.
60
And if I have anything to do with it, that's how we will end up.
61
So because of all of you, breakingpoints .com, premium subscribers, we are in a position where we can say, no, fuck you.
62
And so that is our official response to Kalshi.
63
So yeah, there you go.
64
And this isn't just a Kalshi thing.
65
This is for anybody who wants us to do an ad read, be it Manscaped or any of these people,
66
but in particular, these literal scum of the earth over at these gambling companies.
67
And then, so with that, we also have, we need your help.
68
So I don't game.
69
I've never played GTA.
70
I hear it's big.
71
Let's put this up here on the screen.
72
So this advertisement was placed in Miami.
73
And apparently in this universe, there is something called Weasel News.
74
And - It like played, this is according to Griffin.
75
This is according to Griffin.
76
It like plays in the cars that you steal.
77
Right, it plays in the cars that you steal.
78
Anyway, so they have apparently for the first time, these hosts of Weasel News.
79
Now, a lot of people, many friends, people who don't watch the show, like any of that, they're like, dude, this is literally you.
80
So what do you guys think?
81
I personally, I don't see it.
82
I see it in Crystal's case.
83
You see it in my case?
84
Oh, I see it so much more in your case.
85
I don't see it.
86
I just don't see it.
87
So a few things.
88
First of all, they would have been doing the graphics a number of years ago.
89
There's a point that Griffin made.
90
And I used to have that haircut.
91
You did have it.
92
And I used to wear the big earrings like that as well.
93
And I know that you have that dress.
94
Now my earrings are a little more tame.
95
I do have a little bit of a bigger pair on today, but my earrings are typically a little more restrained these days.
96
That's true.
97
The outfits are totally as, you literally have that tie.
98
I do own that exact tie.
99
And you used to wear it.
100
And I used to wear it all the time.
101
A lot.
102
Five years ago.
103
That's true.
104
Talk to me about the glasses.
105
Okay, but everybody, a lot of people wear these.
106
Well, obviously, number one, I'm not black.
107
That seems to be like the biggest ever.
108
It's not right.
109
Like, obviously, they wouldn't do exactly us.
110
I'm also not, I don't know if that, if she's like Asian or Latino, some sort of like racially ambiguous.
111
I don't know but they you know it's drawing inspirate
112
that like it very much looks like the pocket square
113
and the tie and that shade of blue i i do actually own that exact outfit so i i I don't know.
114
I don't know.
115
All right.
116
So when the game comes out, we'll take a listen.
117
We'll let us know.
118
You let us know.
119
You guys let us know what you think.
120
Is it us or not?
121
I truly, like I said, I've never played this video game in my entire life.
122
I'm not going to play it.
123
I guess I wish you guys all the best.
124
But yeah, let us know.
125
Let us know in the comment section.
126
If it is, I at least know enough to know that it's a great honor.
127
So thank you.
128
And for increasing the profile.
129
Even if it's, yeah, like caricature, ish or mockery, whatever.
130
Yeah, whatever.
131
It's in the culture.
132
Yeah, it's one of the biggest cultural,
133
you know, I know enough to know that every guy who I know is going to take work off or whatever.
134
There's already an estimate
135
that the U .S is going to lose like hundreds of billions of dollars in productivity on a day
136
or the week or whatever after the game comes out.
137
OK, so with all that preamble, with our screw you to Calci, with our plea for whether that is us or not,
138
according to you guys, let's get to our interview with the great Logan Phillips.
139
We're very excited now to be joined by our great friend, Logan Phillips of racetothewhitehouse .com.
140
It's good to see you, Logan.
141
Thanks for joining us, man.
142
Hey, great to be on as always.
143
All right.
144
So our weekly check -in, let's go ahead and put a three up here on the screen.
145
Here's what we've got now so far from Logan's website.
146
Tell us a little bit about where things look in your current forecast, Senate, House, and governor's races.
147
Well, this is a really unique election in that it's kind of battlefield America.
148
We're seeing places in play all across the map, ranging from Maine to Nebraska and Kansas.
149
And so we have both a chance for historic election for Democrats where they can sweep the map.
150
And there's also a chance here where they don't gain that much in the Senate.
151
And they only pick up a little bit in governor races.
152
So that's what kind of makes this race interesting, is because they're overperforming so much in red areas, boy, does that increase their maximum potential.
153
But you could come up short, gaining a lot of ground,
154
as Hillary Clinton did in places like Arizona and Texas if you don't win doesn't get you much.
155
Right.
156
Makes sense.
157
So we wanted to dig into this question of a potential polling miss at this point
158
because we've touched on this with you before, but we wanted to do it in a bit of a more systematic way and say,
159
OK, if we had the polling miss of 2016, what would that look like if we had one like 2022 or 2025?
160
What would that look like?
161
Let me go and start with a New York Times analysis.
162
This is from Nate Cohn.
163
I can put this up on the screen and we can get your sort of overall view here.
164
He says polls show Democrats ahead.
165
Are they quote, right this time.
166
And, you know, he has proper level of skepticism, as we all should.
167
The polls are not going to be exactly correct.
168
They will likely be off in one direction or the other.
169
He does, however, point out that the polls have been closer in midterm elections.
170
And in fact, at times they have underestimated
171
Democrats in midterm elections, and they dramatically underestimated
172
Democrats in the 2025 gubernatorial elections, both in Virginia and New Jersey.
173
So what is your sort of overall view of your level of confidence in the polls right now
174
and some of the things that you're paying attention to before we get into the specific numbers?
175
I would say that you can't just look at the polls here.
176
All of the indicators to me look really good for Democrats.
177
First, they did an outstanding job in these special elections.
178
And I think that's true also if you combine that with what happened in California and Washington.
179
They were outperforming expectations if it were like a neutral cycle by like eight points.
180
Wow.
181
And since then, the environment has moved in their direction by like a point or two.
182
So you have that and you also have the fundraising.
183
Now, I know that's not going to sound right at first because if you're talking about the super PACs, then Republicans have a big advantage.
184
But the actual donations to candidates from individuals, which is a better indicator and more predictive of candidate success, Democrats have been swamping
185
Republicans in race after race.
186
You mean like small dollar donations?
187
Just regular donations that exclude PAC money or self -funding.
188
And why is that?
189
Just like that it's voter enthusiasm, it's grassroots?
190
I think it's a combination of two things.
191
One, frankly, I think
192
Democrats, that is their bread and butter these days.
193
And Republicans have gotten a little less active on campaigning on fundraising
194
because they know they're going to get it from the PACs.
195
But it's also separate from that.
196
I think it's a sign of enthusiasm.
197
And this does make my personal forecast a lot more accurate when you take this into account.
198
So maybe that's not true anymore with the era of PAC money, but I still think it says something about the quality of the candidates
199
and the quality of their operation and the base enthusiasm that
200
Democrats have, which I think is still higher.
201
Yeah, well, we were talking before we turned the cameras on about Kansas and Roger Marshall.
202
And, you know, this is a race that, going into the cycle, no one,
203
including Roger Marshall, would have thought that this seat would have been in play.
204
He's barely raising any money at all to his Senate campaign at this late date after you very much know
205
that he has a real race on his hands.
206
Yeah, this isn't even like Nebraska last year where people weren't taking it seriously to the end.
207
And maybe you guys were on it.
208
Yeah, no way.
209
Most people weren't uh everyone's been talking about kansas for months except it seems roger marshall
210
because i don't know what he's doing i don't know how he's raised
211
that little it's baffling to me like you'd think someone would come in
212
and just rescue him and bring him along to fundraisers
213
and more than the pitiful amount he's gotten
214
so yeah he's relying on outside money
215
and to some degree like we see this every cycle that
216
when there's a huge wave the people
217
that loses them the most on the very far fringes are candidates
218
that um have been saved their whole career
219
that have never tried to have to actually win swing voters yes maybe
220
they did their first time yeah that's why when you go that's why
221
when you're like oh how does he not raise any money he's never had to yeah
222
you just you win the primary
223
and that's it it's over you need a few token million dollars and you get the r next to your name,
224
everybody checks the box and you get to move on, right?
225
You buy your house in Washington, you don't think about it.
226
You put your kids in a Washington high school because you're never going to leave, right?
227
Like that's literally the mindset of these people.
228
One important part of the Nate Cohn thing before we move on is the big question to me is these red states.
229
Like it's the Kansas, it's the South Carolinas, and it's the others where you had the similar kind of enthusiasm going into 2018,
230
but at the end of the day, the Republicans come home.
231
What meaningfully makes today's race different than that race at the time?
232
Yeah, I think it's definitely different.
233
I just don't know if it's different enough for Democrats to win.
234
I think they're going to win Texas.
235
And I think Kansas is a toss up.
236
But voters are really frustrated with the Republican Party.
237
And this includes some genuine
238
Republicans and a lot of our leaning independents.
239
This does not mean that everyone's turn would often be framed as such.
240
That's not true.
241
But a sizable portion in a coalition in elections that are as competitive as America, which might be the most competitive in the world that's massive
242
and so uh it's you know this is the problem for Republicans
243
that they're rallying call for Donald Trump that everyone
244
and most voters in the party buy into is
245
that the system is not working for them they already felt
246
that in their lives but it's been doubled down on messaging time
247
and time again that politicians are corrupt that people are not putting them first
248
and then now they're seeing those same things being done by the president that thought was going to change things.
249
I think that has gotten more people to start to question things.
250
And the thing about Trump is once you start to question him, a lot of the things that you just dismiss because they're
251
Trump being Trump start to really get on your nerves.
252
Yeah, it's true.
253
All right, let's dig now into the numbers.
254
Let's put this first graphic up on the screen.
255
Okay, so what we asked you to do here is to take the current polling average in all of the Senate races.
256
That's the column that you see here on the left for Alaska, Florida, Georgia, et cetera, on down the line.
257
And these are all of the races that are even colorably interesting in the Senate.
258
And then to apply to it, what if the pollsters are off by the average amount they were off in 2016?
259
Now, 2016 and 2020, there was a very similar polling miss.
260
They underestimated Republicans by, what was it?
261
It was about, what, three points?
262
Yeah, roughly right about three points.
263
So what do we see if we have a similar polling miss as what we saw in 2016 and in 2020?
264
Yeah, what would happen is the Senate would become a battleground of a different nature.
265
It kind of flips.
266
Democrats would have about a 30 percent chance instead of about a 70 percent chance in the Senate
267
because Republicans would be on track for basically keeping everything the same.
268
They would lose
269
North Carolina, still reasonably cleanly, but they would pick up Michigan, Ohio.
270
And when I say pick up, I want to be clear.
271
This would be so close that it basically isn't really even picking up.
272
It just means it's a straight down the middle race.
273
Michigan would be separated by 0 .01%.
274
Wow.
275
Oh, my gosh.
276
God forbid.
277
That's like a horrible situation.
278
And Ohio, you have by 0 .1%.
279
So if the 0 .01 and the 0 .1 holds, you end up with Republicans holding onto the Senate, narrowly holding onto the Senate,
280
even in the realm where you have that level of miss that, you know, where
281
Republicans are underestimated.
282
Yeah, and that's on paper, right?
283
So you have those two races, which I think are basically tied, right?
284
So they could go either way.
285
And then you have Alaska and Texas, which would be around a percent difference or less.
286
So the thing is, this miss never happens across the same, almost every one of these years.
287
Even when there's a huge polling miss, there's gonna be a race where there's an exception that goes the other way and someone's underrated.
288
So Republicans would be clearly favored to win the Senate in this scenario, but Democrats would still have a fighting chance.
289
Yeah.
290
Interesting.
291
Okay.
292
So let's steel man this, too.
293
So 2016, why were the polls wrong?
294
You know, a lot of our audience is young.
295
They may not even know they were in high school or something like that.
296
Why were they wrong?
297
Give us a reach into my 2016 brain here.
298
I know, especially for those of us who had to sit through those long
299
New York Times profiles about white people in Ohio or whatever at a diner.
300
But yeah, go ahead.
301
Yeah.
302
Well, the reason they won is that people under people miss what was happening in 2016 going into the election,
303
which is that trump brought a ton of new voters
304
that were disproportionately white didn't vote too often uh didn't have college degrees who felt they were left behind
305
and trump's whole campaign was you're getting screwed and i'm going to change things and it motivated a lot of new people
306
You know, they figured that out in 2008
307
because maybe the first black president made it a little more obvious
308
that black voters were going to turn out at high levels.
309
But they completely missed the ball in 16.
310
And then in 2020, which was also a big miss, you had, I think a lot of this came down to COVID.
311
Some of the same problems repeated themselves, but also Democrats were home way more than Republicans in a way
312
that might not ever repeat itself in that type of dynamic.
313
And so what do you mean by that?
314
Like how?
315
Who was more likely to answer the phone?
316
The person that was worried about the pandemic.
317
Right, right.
318
Right.
319
The white collar worker at home.
320
Right.
321
Democrats, core base, excited to tell pollsters how much they hate Donald Trump.
322
Yes.
323
And so even though Biden ends up winning when we were covering that together, I mean, it was looking like,
324
oh, it's going to be a bloodbath.
325
Right.
326
And it's not going to be anywhere close.
327
And then it was very close.
328
OK, so let's bring our minds forward a little bit in time now to 2022 too.
329
Economic numbers, Biden's in the presidency, economic numbers are not looking great.
330
People are dissatisfied.
331
Everyone's thinking, oh, it's going to be a red wave.
332
Now, the polls never showed a blowout for Republicans, but we were all kind of applying our 2016 -2020 mind saying,
333
oh, well, if the polls show
334
Republicans leading, it's going to be Republicans by even more than that.
335
So the general consensus was a red wave is coming, and then it did not arrive.
336
And in fact, the polls underestimated
337
Democrats by a bit in that particular cycle, by about three and a half points in that cycle.
338
So here we have the numbers for 2022.
339
What you see here is that if you have that level of a polling miss underestimating
340
Democrats, it becomes quite a blowout on the Democratic side.
341
You have states that are flipping that you never would have imagined before obviously you've got Iowa flipping.
342
You've got Kansas going.
343
And not by really that narrow of a margin.
344
You have the Democrat winning by four points in Kansas.
345
You have South Carolina going blue by two and a half points.
346
And of course, Texas, James Tallarico would prevail by almost six points.
347
So that is another possibility that is on the table here.
348
Yeah.
349
And that's why this is honestly, when you guys messaged me about this last night,
350
it was a brilliant idea because it shows exactly what we're dealing with the map is
351
so broad we haven't experienced this before at least i haven't
352
because i wasn't paying that much attention in 2006
353
when i was 13
354
so this is definitely an election where uh these races could be in play
355
because they're over performing so much in these red areas and
356
if they just do a little better than with the poll
357
so just a little better they can cash in on a historic level uh
358
that would change the next six years of our politics yeah so let's talk through the structural things again, what happened with that miss?
359
So with that miss, I mean, generally I remember I used to say like,
360
you know, the breaking points rule is you take a Republican number and you add five to it or something like that.
361
You know, I was like, Jesus, you know, you'd seen too much at this point.
362
Yeah.
363
It's like, oh, well, and then of course that was the one year the rule completely falls apart.
364
Structurally what happened?
365
Because I've actually seen some people say, hey, if you paid attention to the special elections, the ingredients were all there.
366
You should have just if you just looked at that you could have predicted democratic overperformance.
367
That's kind of what I did Yeah, okay.
368
So all right.
369
So but then what did everybody else miss?
370
What were the structural ingredients for what went wrong in that race?
371
I think they missed that the change had happened and look this is just part of the human condition
372
We always overlearn the lessons from the last big thing that happened I mean, you know, I'm bringing a little broad here,
373
but Mistakes followed from World War one caused
374
World War two.
375
Sure.
376
Sure, right America always goes from excessively
377
interventionalist to completely losing sight of the world to getting too confident that now we're in Iraq, now we're in Iran, et cetera, right?
378
So this is the same thing that happens with people talking about politics.
379
And if you want to be better than the conventional wisdom, that's literally all you need to do.
380
Well, it's not all you need to do,
381
but it will help, is just recognize that everyone else is over -indexing for what they literally just saw yesterday.
382
And that's what happened in 22, because there were really big signs in that
383
Republicans are doing quite well special elections
384
and they were doing a lot better in the polling
385
and then the bottom started to fall out after row
386
and they started nominating candidates like doug mastriano in pennsylvania right
387
that were talking about kicking voters off the rolls as a central campaign message
388
and banning abortion in places where voters disagreed with that and
389
so that conjecture that wasn't every candidate
390
but we had a lot of those candidates disproportionately in swing races
391
i feel like even more than in just red races and
392
so republicans weren't able to take advantage i also think
393
and this is a huge contrast with this year joe biden
394
did not force democrats to stick with him all the time a lot of them separated themselves oh yeah
395
now we're probably literally complained to them on the phone in leaked audio
396
but yeah yeah but he didn't say it you know he did it in a normal way right
397
which is the president grumbles and is doesn't take it is not happy
398
that all these people especially if this is their second term that they personally recruited to run and we're
399
in theory inspired by him or her
400
and then now they're like running for the hills trying to avoid them like crazy yeah
401
that probably drives all presidents crazy because they all have egos
402
but they're at the end of the day
403
they want to win the senate they put it aside trump's made it way harder
404
and you see ashley henson in iowa for example toss a brace
405
but she was losing earlier and now it's basically tied
406
and that's because i think in part she's done a really good job of
407
saying she wants to be bipartisan creating her own brand
408
that's separate from the party michelle Tafoya is doing the same thing in Minnesota.
409
It's a very tough year to run, but she's way over performing the rest of her party.
410
Susan Collins does that.
411
That's not what most
412
Republicans are doing.
413
And so that could be the thing that sinks a lot of these people.
414
Interesting.
415
All right.
416
So now let's talk 2025.
417
Now this may surprise people because, well, first of all, there were just fewer elections.
418
It's just basically Virginia and New Jersey have their gubernatorial elections.
419
And because the polls were directionally correct, they showed a victory for the Democrats in both cases.
420
I don't think people really processed how much of a miss it was, but let's put this up on the screen.
421
This of the years we're focused on here was actually the largest polling miss.
422
It was about 8 .1 % of a miss, underestimating Democrats.
423
Okay, so now we're getting really wild.
424
Okay, if we had a polling miss in 2026 that was the same as the polling miss in 2025,
425
so just last year with Virginia and New Jersey, you would end up with Democrats having a super majority in the Senate,
426
something that seems impossible, I think is probably very unlikely.
427
But if you did apply that same polling miss from just last year, that is what you would end up with.
428
Yeah.
429
Now, this type of miss is more likely to happen when it's a special, it's an off -year election.
430
It's sort of like halfway to a special election because the turnout gap can be bigger.
431
And so that's harder to estimate.
432
Is that what's going on there? yeah it's harder to estimate
433
and you're more likely just to have a big miss with
434
two races than you are with like 35 right um
435
that being said I mean look this is like the best case scenario for Democrats
436
it's unlikely this would be a historic miss
437
but there's like a five to you know somewhere between a
438
five to ten percent chance of this type of thing happening uh
439
and in this scenario look we've incredibly limited polling in this admittedly
440
but based off the small polling we have Mrs. Hippie in Louisiana would I believe flip in this map
441
so that's crazy that's totally nuts really wild yeah i'm not
442
i'm not there yet it's like you said it's a five
443
but but like again structural ingredients i think that's what we got to try to look at like
444
when i look at your map for example
445
and you have toss up in kansas toss up in iowa
446
and toss up in alaska already these are such dramatic problems
447
and a lot of things have to go right
448
so i think bigger question is how much of this is uh local
449
or national like you've talked previously here candidate quality how it
450
really matters in particular for texas like talarico right like i feel i i personally think
451
if cornyn was the nominee he would probably win but
452
and i don't think he would win by a lot to be clear
453
it would be maybe even less than ted cruz
454
and beto it might be one
455
or 0 .5 i'm just like yeah i feel like enough of the traditional people are just going to come home.
456
But I opened the paper this morning and I'm looking at the Dallas Morning News, who my whole life endorses John Cornyn,
457
is like, where would James tell him?
458
Now, is that going to swing a ton of people?
459
No. But it's indicative of, I know these are upper crust rich people who send their kids to SMU.
460
They're holding their nose and they're like, I'm going to Tallarico.
461
That doesn't happen with John Cornyn, in my opinion.
462
So that's my question, is how much of this is local candidate quality and then how much of it is national?
463
Because for a lot of years, it didn't really matter who the candidates were by plus or minus two, something like that.
464
Because at the end of the day, whoever's in the Senate, you're voting for Trump or you're not.
465
And that really matters, right?
466
In terms of who that person is.
467
What have you seen in your analysis?
468
Yeah, I think it's both.
469
I mean, you're not talking about Alaska being in play, even with Paltola running, if this environment was tepidly bad for Republicans, but not terrible.
470
Interesting.
471
That being said, look, this is my hot take, and maybe I'm going to look dumb for this,
472
But I genuinely believe that we're getting a little less polarized after a sprinting in the other direction.
473
What I mean by that, to put in English, is voters have been less willing to break with their party.
474
And so red states vote redder, blue states vote bluer.
475
And we feel like we're long past the era where you saw
476
Democrats representing places like Missouri and South Dakota and Republicans winning a lot of blue places as well.
477
And so maybe that's going to change a little bit.
478
Yeah.
479
Because people don't like either party.
480
They think the whole system is wrong.
481
That is like the consensus across America.
482
And candidate quality might mean a little bit more.
483
Yeah, I mean, I could see it.
484
Look, the one thing
485
that you have to accept in politics is whenever you get sort of like a mental frame of what's going on, things shift.
486
So I could definitely see that.
487
You know, I want to talk a little bit more about all of the polling misses
488
and try if we can to put some theories together.
489
So it certainly seems like there is something about when Trump is on the ballot, pollsters underestimate his support, his support specifically.
490
Whereas the midterm elections, it's been more of a mixed bag.
491
And in fact, I mean, these two midterm elections, the most recent, the 2022 midterm and the 2025 off -year election, they underestimated Democrats.
492
And look, pollsters are human beings.
493
They want to try to adjust things.
494
They have gotten a lot more shit for underestimating
495
Republicans than they have for underestimating Democrats ultimately.
496
So do you think
497
that part of the reason why the midterm polls have been wrong in the opposite direction is because of pollster overcorrection,
498
trying to make sure this time we don't underestimate Republicans?
499
Yeah, I think that could be part of it.
500
And also, like, I just want to say on the 2022 map, I forgot to say this before.
501
Part of this is because we're using real clear politics, which does tend to have a Republican bias.
502
I don't know if that's because they were embarrassed about 2020
503
and trying to overcorrect because they didn't include some like very good polling in New Hampshire.
504
The poll they called, the pollster they called the best
505
that released the poll two days before the election
506
because it would have moved their average to showing Maggie Hassan winning the race.
507
And like, so their miss was a lot bigger than other people that year, to be fair.
508
That makes sense.
509
Isn't that the year all these random
510
Republican pollsters came out of the woodwork?
511
Yeah, if you can make adjustments for that and start instituting bias checks, like that's the downside of RCP versus, you know, myself and Nate Silver,
512
is that they don't correct for partisan pollsters and they do like three
513
or four and it's kind of open for interpretation of the most recent polls.
514
And so, like, if you're just including all of them and two of them are Republican pollsters, you're more at risk of making a sudden mess.
515
That being said, like, I think part of this is
516
that pollsters' job has gotten way harder because I think the answer rate for polls by phone is,
517
like, less than 10 % of what it was in 2016.
518
It was surging down at that point, too.
519
Because people, when you get a ring and call, like, we remember when we were younger, you usually answered it.
520
Now it's, well, five years ago, it used to be a scammer now it's AI, you know, pretending to be your grandma asking for money.
521
I've got six layers before I answer a phone call.
522
Like, I went to the carrier to block unknown numbers.
523
I have a screener.
524
Like, if I'm answering your phone call, it's, you're a real person.
525
I can't be the only person who's like, I've paid money for apps that will block robocalls.
526
I answer the random numbers because I need someone to so that these polls are better.
527
Oh, fair.
528
You're part of the polling bias.
529
Yeah.
530
Let me ask you this, Logan.
531
And so if we understand the limitations of the polls, we understand that we've had a variety of misses in a variety of directions.
532
What other things are you looking at?
533
What are when you say the fundamentals?
534
What do we mean here?
535
And is there anything you're looking at?
536
People are starting to parse through the early vote data, which I always think is a little bit of a dicey proposition,
537
especially if you don't know what.
538
I mean, I'm not I'm looking at it.
539
I'm an early vote crack addict.
540
I just I can't get it.
541
And we are going to try to do a segment.
542
Anyway, putting that aside, what are you seeing right now that you think people should be paying attention to?
543
I'll tell you, I'll put my cards on the table.
544
I was saying yesterday in our planning call that we need to get a graphic that's just like the gas prices,
545
the average today, what it was a week ago, what it was a year ago, what it is for diesel,
546
because I don't know that there's any better indicator of the mood of the country
547
and where we're likely to end up on Election Day.
548
So that's my, you know, simple heuristic.
549
What are the sorts of things that you're specifically looking at?
550
Yeah, I actually haven't looked at the early vote this year.
551
And I'll be honest, I'm a little scarred for life from it because in 2016,
552
my friend that worked at the DNC was giving me all this information.
553
He was so confident about how amazing Clinton was going to do after the strong numbers in Miami, which actually went amazing for Democrats.
554
They just did everywhere.
555
They did horrible literally everywhere else in the state.
556
Right.
557
Or at least in the northern parts of the state, I should say.
558
But like, I think it's so easy to see what you want to see voting patterns change.
559
Democrats might even be scared about the mail -in ballots after
560
Trump was up to some stuff trying to change the rules and it wasn't successful.
561
Like this could all change the way people vote cycle to cycle.
562
And so drawing these big conclusions from it, it literally might be a signal that
563
Democrats have decided how much they're going to spend in early GOTV, right?
564
And trying to bank in some votes in mail
565
or how much Donald Trump has decided to encourage or discourage people from the mail -in ballots.
566
Well, I remember for Democrats, 2024, the lines were out the door in Northern Virginia.
567
They were like, oh my God, look at those Democrats.
568
Trump wins all states.
569
Including, by the way, like his margin in Virginia is like higher than that.
570
Oh, well, even worse than looking at the early vote data is like,
571
looking at like, oh, there's a long line in Fairfax County at this point.
572
You know, I mean, that's really, not that I won't do that.
573
I was going to say, I'm still, I'm still there but because we're just so desperate for anything.
574
Okay, so early vote, you're like, just don't even look at it.
575
Yeah, but I will so I can answer your question better next time.
576
But I will say, anecdotally, looking on Twitter, you see people cherry picking,
577
you know, I'll see the same state analyzed in totally polar opposite directions.
578
So putting aside early vote, what else are you looking at?
579
Yeah, honestly, I like doing a combination of quantitative and qualitative.
580
and they're just between personal conversations focus groups i've listened to there is
581
so much frustration with a lot of trump voters
582
and i don't necessarily like some of this has actually died in the wool republicans
583
but especially soft trump voters yeah they just are not happy with what's being delivered
584
it's sort of a crisis for them about who they're going to vote for
585
and so these conversations are very much reflecting what i'm seeing in all these other indicators
586
and i genuinely think that means something i think you got to combine
587
that with the data because you're not going to talk to everyone you're just not
588
so you're no person in america unless they're traveling all over
589
is going to have a proper read of the whole country yeah
590
but i'm also really hearing this from folks that um both first
591
and second hand they're in places like southern texas in the rio grande valley whose family always votes for republicans
592
but this year like they are just so frustrated with what they've seen from ICE, what they've dealt with with prices,
593
that they're going to flip for Tallarico.
594
And so like, and some for Hina Josa, like this is definitely happening.
595
Again, it's a question of how much and how much decides who actually is going to win these races.
596
But I think it's really clear that the movement is real.
597
Interesting.
598
Well, if you want another data point, off our YouTube analytics alone, I thought Trump was going to win.
599
And now off of our YouTube analytics, I'm like, it's going to be 60 seats for the Democrats.
600
What do you mean when you say that?
601
Well, you can just tell, like general like what people are looking at like oh what's getting the click rate what generally uh
602
you know people are into what oh yeah you know things like
603
that don't read them we don't read them
604
but it's uh in general you know in terms of the reports
605
that we get back and then also the shareable the like ratio all
606
that other stuff i'm like yeah i mean look people call it the podcast election
607
so it's like take it for something right yeah in terms of how that looks
608
so anyway yeah a little peek behind the curtain for everybody okay uh let's get to the next part with the gop
609
Hey, if you liked that video, hit the like button or leave a comment below.
610
It really helps get the show to more people.
611
And if you'd like to get the full show ad -free and in your inbox every morning, you can sign up at breakingpoints .com.
612
That's right.
613
Get the full show.
614
Help support the future of independent media at breakingpoints .com.
Télécharger l'application
Tout pour parler couramment
Prononciation IAChaque phrase notée
Phonétique (IPA)Maîtrisez chaque son
VocabulaireEnrichissez votre lexique
Jeu de vocabulaireApprenez en jouant
Même chaîne
B2'VIRTUALLY ALL' US Missiles USED In Iran War
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B23
Spirit Airlines GOES BUST After Jet Fuel $$ Doubles
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
C12
John Mearsheimer: Why Russia Might NUKE Europe
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C212
Professor Jiang Predicts: US WILL LOSE Iran War
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C236
SOCIETAL COLLAPSE: US Reading Test SCORES PLUNGE
High School Students
FOR YOU
Vidéo recommandée
B26
398 phrases
Five things you need to know for the 2026 midterms | America, Actually
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
C11
398 phrases
Sec Growth DataScience staff meeting Sep 14 2022
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
85 phrases
Significant slowdown in AI payoff could tip economy into a recession, says Apollo Global's Slok
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
C11
518 phrases
Gen Z and The American Dream | Surrounded Follow Up w/Maxwell Frost
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
159 phrases
Mamdani Takes On Trump, ICE and Musk in Independence Day Speech
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
B2254 phrases
Trump PANICS As US Military RUNS OUT OF MONEY!! | The Kyle Kulinski Show
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
C11
181 phrases
Sen. Tillis warns that without checks and balances, U.S. democracy is at risk | 60 Minutes
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
B2253 phrases
MAGA Conspiracy About James Talarico BACKFIRES MASSIVELY, Will He Sue For Defamation?
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
C11
112 phrases
‘We don’t have months’: Bernie Sanders sounds alarm on AI's 'extinction' threat
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
B21
279 phrases
White House holds briefing as Iran tensions fuel fears of wider conflict
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
C11
507 phrases
Sometimes John Oliver Wants to ‘Burn Everything Down’ | The Interview
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
B2213 phrases
BREAKING: Trump RAIDS Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar's HOME Weeks Before Midterm Elections!
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
Vocabulaire et conseils d’expression pour cette leçon
Cette leçon d’expression orale s’appuie sur la vidéo « DEM SUPERMAJORITY?: WILD Midterm Scenarios IN PLAY ». Cette vidéo contient 614 phrases et 6771 mots à répéter en shadowing. La partie parlée dure 31:59. Le locuteur parle vite, environ 212 mots par minute : attendez-vous à des liaisons et à des sons réduits. 86 % des mots font partie des 3 000 mots les plus courants en anglais ; le reste mérite d’être vu avant de commencer.
Vocabulaire clé de cette vidéo
15 mots de la vidéo à retenir, avec leur prononciation et leur sens :
| Mot | Prononciation | Sens |
|---|---|---|
| poll nom | /poʊl/ | sondage |
| underestimate verbe | /ʌndɚˈɛs.tɪ.meɪt/ | sous-estimer |
| voter nom | /ˈvoʊtɚ/ | votant, votante |
| toss verbe | /tɔs/ | lancer |
| flip verbe | /flɪp/ | retourner |
| enthusiasm nom | /ɪnˈθuziæzəm/ | enthousiasme, passion |
| indicator nom | /ˈɪn.dɪˌkeɪ.tə(ɹ)/ | indicateur |
| swing verbe | /ˈswɪŋ/ | osciller, se balancer |
| estimate nom | /ˈɛs.tɪ.mət/ | estimation |
| scenario nom | /sɪˈnɛəɹioʊ/ | scénario |
| bias nom | /ˈbaɪ.əs/ | préjugé, parti-pris |
| structural adjectif | /ˈstɹʌk(t͡)ʃəɹəl/ | structurel, structural |
| ballot nom | /ˈbælət/ | votation |
| donation nom | /doʊˈneɪʃən/ | donation, don |
| ingredient nom | /ɪnˈɡɹiːdi.ənt/ | ingrédient |
Les verbes à particule que vous entendrez
| Mot | Prononciation | Sens |
|---|---|---|
| pick up verbe | soulever | |
| come out verbe | /ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/ | sortir |
| end up verbe | se terminer, se finir | |
| go ahead verbe | /ˌɡoʊ əˈhɛd/ | vas-y, allez-y |
| come up verbe | se montrer, sortir du bois | |
| fall apart verbe | tomber en morceaux | |
| fall out verbe | brouiller avec | |
| get back verbe | retourner |
Des phrases à répéter
Des phrases courtes et complètes de la vidéo, à réutiliser dans la conversation de tous les jours :
- You see it in my case?
- Is it us or not?
- You mean like small dollar donations?
- What have you seen in your analysis?
- What other things are you looking at?
La grammaire de cette vidéo
Les structures que le locuteur utilise le plus, avec les mots exacts de la vidéo :
| Structure | Dans la vidéo |
|---|---|
| « Used to » used to + verbe — une habitude ou un état passé qui n’est plus vrai | used to have · used to wear · used to say |
| Present perfect continu have/has been + -ing — une action commencée avant et toujours en cours | have been swamping · everyone's been talking |
| Phrases conditionnelles if + proposition, will/would + verbe — une condition et son résultat | if cornyn was the nominee he would probably |
| Present perfect have/has + participe passé — une action passée qui compte encore maintenant | has emerged · have come · we've received |
Prononciation à surveiller
Le locuteur utilise 161 contractions et formes réduites, comme don't, I'm, you're. Prononcez-les sous leur forme courte, telles que vous les entendez.
- Les sons « th »: enthusiasm /ɪnˈθuziæzəm/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/
- Les sons « sh » et « zh »: structural /ˈstɹʌk(t͡)ʃəɹəl/, donation /doʊˈneɪʃən/, partnership /ˈpɑɹtnɚʃɪp/, contrast /kənˈt(ʃ)ɹæst/, conclusion /kənˈkluːʒən/
- Mots longs — placez bien l’accent: underestimate /ʌndɚˈɛs.tɪ.meɪt/, enthusiasm /ɪnˈθuziæzəm/, indicator /ˈɪn.dɪˌkeɪ.tə(ɹ)/, ingredient /ɪnˈɡɹiːdi.ənt/, genuinely /ˈd͡ʒɛn.ju.ɪn.li/
Les sons difficiles pour les francophones :
- /h/ — il se souffle, il n’est pas muet: horrible /ˈhɔɹ.ɪ.bəl/, whereas /(h)wɛɹˈæz/, hire /ˈhaɪɹ/, halfway /ˌhæfˈweɪ/, whatsoever /ˌ(h)wʌtsoʊˈɛvɚ/
- /tʃ/ et /dʒ/ — à ne pas adoucir en « ch » et « j »: margin /ˈmɑɹ.d͡ʒɪn/, genuinely /ˈd͡ʒɛn.ju.ɪn.li/, encourage /ɪnˈkʌɹ.ɪd͡ʒ/, genuine /ˈd͡ʒɛn.juˌɪn/, virtually /ˈvɚ.t͡ʃə.wə.li/
- /r/ anglais — langue recourbée, sans frotter la gorge: indicator /ˈɪn.dɪˌkeɪ.tə(ɹ)/, scenario /sɪˈnɛəɹioʊ/, structural /ˈstɹʌk(t͡)ʃəɹəl/, ingredient /ɪnˈɡɹiːdi.ənt/, horrible /ˈhɔɹ.ɪ.bəl/
Comment s’entraîner avec cette vidéo
- Écoutez la vidéo en entier une fois sans parler et notez les mots que vous ne connaissez pas.
- Commencez à la vitesse 0,75×, répétez phrase par phrase, puis revenez à la vitesse normale quand cela devient facile.
- Enregistrez-vous et comparez avec l’original, en faisant attention à des mots comme poll, underestimate, voter.
Qu'est-ce que la technique du Shadowing ?
Le Shadowing est une technique d'apprentissage des langues fondée sur la science, développée à l'origine pour la formation des interprètes professionnels. Le principe est simple mais puissant : vous écoutez de l'anglais natif et le répétez immédiatement à voix haute — comme une ombre suivant le locuteur avec un décalage de 1 à 2 secondes. Les recherches montrent une amélioration significative de la précision de la prononciation, de l'intonation, du rythme, des liaisons, de la compréhension orale et de la fluidité.