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All right, well, hello everybody and welcome.
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Hey now, I got Elon and Ian Dahl with our Starlink team, figured we'd check in.
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It's been a typical SpaceX year.
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Launched a brand new vehicle, acquired XAI, now SpaceX AI, announced a terror-sized chip building project.
5
And so… Yeah, never a dull moment.
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Yeah, never a dull moment, typical year.
7
And so let's kind of wanted to connect some of the dots and how this all feeds into making life multi-planetary, starting to climb up the Kardashev scale,
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maybe show off some cool new AI stat stuff.
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Let's kind of start galaxy-sized and bring people in with the Kardashev scale.
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What's the big picture?
11
What's the big picture?
12
What is the Kardashev scale?
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How do you decide what progress the civilization has made that's the most objective metric that any alien species,
14
say, visiting us, would calibrate how much progress we've made as a civilization.
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And one of the most subjective ways to do
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that is the amount of power that any given civilization has been able to harness.
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And there was a Russian physicist, actually, by the name of Khodeshev, who thought about this and I think it's a good way to characterize it,
18
which is you can have,
19
you can assess how well a civilization is harnessing the power available on the planet.
20
That's type one.
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And then type two would be how much of the star's power are you harnessing.
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And then type three would be how much of the galaxy's power are you harnessing.
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These are very objective and measurable numbers.
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So right now we're very low on the Kodeshev 1 scale.
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If you say, what proportion of our planet's power are we harnessing?
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It's a very, very tiny number.
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And basically we're harnessing almost nothing of our star's power power.
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So the Sun is truly an immense thing.
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It is difficult with words to characterize just how immense the Sun is, but this gives you sort of a sense of scale.
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Yeah, it's a big difficulty jump going from level 1 to level 2.
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Very big difficulty jump, yes.
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And level 3, and we don't even know how to do level 3, really.
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We'll get there.
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Yeah, yeah, exactly.
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AI will figure it out.
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One way to appreciate the size of the Sun is to
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think about how heavy is the Sun compared to all the rest of the mass in the solar system.
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So the Sun is about 99.86% of all mass in the solar system.
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It's everything and then off the remaining 0.14%, most of that is Jupiter, one planet.
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So we're still lightweight.
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Yes.
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The entire mass of Earth is in the tiny miscellaneous category.
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Earth is a tiny dust moat compared to the sun.
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But how much energy are we talking, like, coming from the sun, especially compared to what we're using here on Earth?
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Because it feels like...
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Yeah.
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The incident solar energy on the cross-section of the Earth is roughly a half-billionth of the sun's power output.
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And the vast majority of that we cannot use because 70% of Earth is water.
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Technically our planet should be called water because it is 70% water
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and I think an alien civilization visiting us would be like, why are they calling it Earth when it is mostly water?
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We're the Greenlands not green of the solar system.
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Yeah.
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A bunch of the...
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Exactly.
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Even we're 70% water and often 30% that's land.
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A bunch of it is Antarctica or Siberia type of thing.
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Very northern Canada type of thing.
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Very difficult to, not places people typically want to live
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and you're not going to get a lot of solar power at the poles.
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So the actual usable area of land where you can get solar power is quite small.
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Anyway, in order to ascend the Karnashev scale, in order to get to any meaningful percentage of the sun's energy harnessed,
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you have to go to space.
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if you want to get to say a millionth of the
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power output of the Sun you would have to increase civilizational energy harness by much more than a million
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so we currently use much less than a trillionth of the power output of the Sun
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and a trillion is a million times a million so
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so basically this we're basically practically nowhere on the sort of the Kardashev to scale practically nowhere
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so in Kardashev scale we're all still we're not register
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and we're like not a we're not even yeah we're
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so we're not we're not registering not even a micro soul yeah we're no and
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so to actually my crystal would be an epic epic achievement
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relative to where we are right now something to aspire to yeah Yeah, that's our goal.
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And like, this is, I think, both simultaneously an incredibly adventurous goal relative to where we are,
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and yet not particularly adventurous as a percentage of the sun's
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energy to try to achieve power harness being one millionth of what the sun outputs.
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And so to actually start...
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A microsol.
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To actually start getting there, though, we're not just going to throw solar arrays in space, try to soak up a bunch of the sun, like there has to be a need.
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Like you want to go up there and do something meaningful.
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And obviously until this point in human history, like there hasn't really been a need.
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What has changed to make us think
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that like maybe now's the time to start trying to notch a percentage point or two?
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I mean, getting to a percent of the sun's energy?
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Maybe not a percent.
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Let's go like, we'll move the decimal point back.
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So you're an extremely kick-ass civilization if you get to 1% of the size of energy.
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And I'm like, wow, that civilization is going to be vastly more powerful than us, to say the least.
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So in order to start to make some progress on the Kodachev scale,
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we need to launch satellites to orbit Earth and capture solar power
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and that avoids the need to build massive power plants on Earth
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and deal with cooling because cooling is actually much easier in space than it is on Earth.
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You can just radiate to the vacuum.
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And so what we're proposing here
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and what we intend to do is to try to climb the Kardashev scale to be kind of like a respectable civilization.
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So when the aliens, hopefully there are aliens out there, and they maybe finally decide to talk to us,
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you know, we have some respectable amount of the sun's energy being used.
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Yeah.
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That's not like totally pathetic, which is the current situation.
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And so before we start sending data centers, sending all this to space,
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there are some limiting factors that we got to get there that would traditionally make it so like this is almost impossible.
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Yeah.
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What does it take to scale?
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Yeah.
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So things it takes to scale are you need to have a large mass to orbit capability, which is what Starship will give us give us, that large mast.
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So you ultimately need to send millions of tons to orbit and beyond.
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And you need the power associated with that.
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So if you want to put 100 gigawatts or ultimately a terawatt into space from Earth, you will at some point need a terawatt of solar.
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And then you're going to need a terawatt of AI chips.
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So the three things you need are mast orbit, a lot of solar power, and radiators, of course, and a lot of ships.
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All right.
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Well, let's start ticking down the list.
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So, mass orbit, that's where Starship comes in.
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Yeah.
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We just had first flight V3.
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It was awesome.
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I know you were there.
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It was crazy to see that rocket launch.
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Yeah.
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And, like, long time coming.
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What's Starship's kind of purpose of being?
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What is it going to be doing?
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Yeah, so Starship is going to revolutionize space, really.
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It's the first rocket design that is capable of full and rapid reusability.
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Now, reusability is the fundamental breakthrough that is necessary to make life multi-planetary, as well as to ascend the Kardashev scale.
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You simply cannot ascend the Kardashev scale unless you have a reusable spacecraft and you cannot extend life to the moon,
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to Mars, and the rest of the solar system without a reusable rocket.
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The cost is simply prohibitive.
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You can't make enough rockets unless you can refly them.
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Just like any other mode of transport, you can imagine that if we had to throw away airplanes every time we flew, flying would be far too expensive and basically no one would be flying airplanes.
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You'd be doing a whole lot more driving, rapid reusability.
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Yes.
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Yes.
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Every mode of transport is reusable, without which it is simply not viable as a transport system.
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So cars, planes, boats, horses, bicycles are all obviously reusable.
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With rockets, it's much harder to make a rocket reusable because Earth has a deep gravity well and a thick atmosphere.
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And these make it just barely possible to achieve reusability with a rocket.
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And there have been many prior attempts to create a fully reusable rocket.
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And most of those attempts have been abandoned partway through because they didn't think they could succeed.
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In order to achieve full reusability, everything's got to be perfect.
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The engines, the structure, the avionics, the choice of propellant.
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You've got to go to extreme measures for mass optimization, which is why we have the tower catch the rocket instead of putting on landing legs, which are heavy.
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The rocket can simply be caught by the tower.
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And we haven't achieved full reusability yet, but we do expect to achieve that.
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Hopefully later this year with Starship, and then you've got to achieve full reusability.
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And if you're going to go a step beyond that, which is make it rapidly reusable, such that the rocket lands, gets caught by the tower,
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gets put back on the launch stand, and can be flown again without any refurbishment or laborious inspection, like an aircraft.
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This is incredibly difficult.
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This is the first time that there's ever been a rocket where that is possible.
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That's what makes Starship so profound.
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It also happens to be the largest flying object ever made, the heaviest flying object ever made,
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the most powerful moving object of any kind.
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Starship V3 is more than double the thrust of it, the Saturn V moon rocket.
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By version 4, we'll be pretty much three times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
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And we expect Starship to be flying more than once per hour down the road.
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One of the fun facts from Flight 12, that was actually the heaviest payload SpaceX has ever flown.
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And that's still just a fraction of what V3 can do.
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So, I mean, once we're flying massive amounts really rapidly,
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I mean, we already fly the majority of payload to space with Falcon.
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Do people even really understand what mass to orbit becomes when Starship is flying?
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It's many orders of magnitude greater than what is the case today.
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So even with Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, SpaceX delivers almost 90% of all Earth mass to orbit.
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I think somewhere between 85 and 90% right now.
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And then most of the remaining mass, I think, is launched by China.
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And then the rest of the world, including the rest of the U.S., is the remaining, I don't know, 5% to 7%.
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Now, with Starship, we'll be aiming to go from somewhere around 2,500 tons a year to orbit to millions of tons per year to orbit.
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And to do so at a pretty short period of time.
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So we think probably we can get to a million tons to orbit per year in about three years, thereabouts.
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Starship is going to take care of the master orbit limiting factor.
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Yes.
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And then power generation.
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So first, and Ian, maybe you can help.
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People probably struggle to visualize a little bit
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when you say like data center in space like we're not going to slap engines on a building
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and fly it up there.
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Like these actually look like pretty different.
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And so kind of walk through how you take something that's in a giant building on the ground
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and turn it into something that's functional in space.
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Yeah, I think it's it's pretty interesting.
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A lot of people don't actually know what what the inside of a data center even looks like, right?
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Yeah.
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And it's something like mythical place where the Internet's in the cloud or something.
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Yeah.
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Some people envision wires, some people envision boxes, but effectively it comes down to a set number of chips
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and the things that we need to launch into space are actually quite small when we look at it.
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The more challenging part is figuring out how do you get the power for it?
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And that's where a lot of what we've worked on for existing like Starwing technology, the solar arrays,
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are what we want to utilize that expertise to be able to build a satellite
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that can actually launch the critical components of the data center into space itself.
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We like to look at this and say, what is the actual engineering problem here?
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And it's really a combination of delivering power
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and then taking the waste heat and energy away and sending it into the vacuum of space, as you mentioned.
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Yeah.
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The AI satellite is actually much simpler than a Starlink satellite.
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A satellite satellite has gigantic phased-ray antennas.
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It's got parabolic antennas.
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It's got a lot of laser links.
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It's much more complicated than an AI satellite.
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An AI satellite is essentially a lot of solar cells, a radiator, and you still need some laser links,
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but you don't have all of the super complex antennas that you have on a Starlink satellite.
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So, I mean, given the two, the easier one to design for is the AI satellite.
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Yeah.
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It's just a little bit bigger.
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It's bigger.
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Just makes stuff bigger.
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Yeah.
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I was like, so we've got, this is our AI-1, if you guys want to walk us through.
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Yeah.
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So the first thing that we're really looking at here is like, first you've got to make something compelling, right?
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And we thought that the right place to start is around the 150 kilowatt peak power level.
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But as we look at the workloads with our experience with XAI, we get to actually see that we can also support about 120 kilowatts of average compute.
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There's a difference.
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What we're showing here is kind of a draft version of the SpaceX AI satellite.
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The AI-1, I guess you could call it.
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And it seems like a reasonable place to start is 150 kilowatts peak power, 120 kilowatts sustained power.
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And to give you a sense of what does that actually look like in terms of the size of the radiators, size of the solar panels,
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the assumptions here are 250 watts per square meter for the solar array
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and about 1,400 watts per square meter for the radiators.
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So the radiators, these are double-sided.
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Radiators are radiating both sides.
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they're oriented knife edge to the Sun and and
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and it's 1400 watts per square meter is a very achievable
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goal over time we think we can probably do above 250 watts per square meter
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and above 1400 watts per square meter for the solar panels radiators respectively
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but this gives you like a a prison is pretty much
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what the satellites gonna look like yeah it's a lot of solar panels
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radiator and then everything else is pretty small like embarrassing
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and these are like evolutions of of things
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that we have actually already launched in in in our starlink
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constellation to date yeah that's that's really i think the cool part to me is
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that we're we're looking at solar technology
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that we already are are going to use on on the v3 uh starlink vehicle
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so uh i'm like really excited to then just take those
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and make it bigger yeah part of what we want what we want to convey here is
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that there's not some magic that's necessary that doesn't exist for the AI satellites.
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As Ian said, a lot of this is technology we've already made for the Starlink B3 satellites.
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So we don't think this is a super hard problem compared to things we already do.
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There would also be probably something on the order of a terabit of laser-linked connectivity from the satellite.
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The 150 kilowatt peak power level roughly matches what, say, an NVIDIA GV300 rack would do.
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So if you've got a GV300 with 72 GPUs, its peak power I think is around 140 kilowatts.
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But it's rarely, it's almost impossible to get it to be at that peak power.
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A more reasonable operating envelope would be around 120 kilowatts average power.
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But it can peak up to 150.
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So it's basically, think of it as a rack of compute in space.
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And then you can connect these racks of compute to either each other by the laser links
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or directly to the Starlink constellation.
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So you can close the link with the Starlink constellation
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and then Starlink can then send that data to the ground using the existing KA and KU antennas on the vehicle.
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It also has laser links to the ground as well.
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And this would not be at a particularly high latency.
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We're talking about maybe being around 600 to 800 kilometers above the Earth,
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and light travels 300 kilometers per millisecond.
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So that's about three milliseconds away, basically.
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It's not very far.
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We won't worry about that too much, though.
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Sometimes people think there's going to be some high latency.
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I'm like, no, lightning moves pretty fast.
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Lightning moves pretty fast, the tall one.
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I think the cool thing also is the radiators themselves are
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about the same size as the existing solar rays for the V3 vehicle, kind of in that realm where we're flying today.
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Yeah.
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So, I mean, they got about a 70-meter wingspan, so these are fairly large.
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We're talking about building a lot of them and putting them up there.
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But you like to say, like, space is in the name.
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Like, there's a lot of space up there.
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And so even when you're talking thousands or even, you know, up to a million satellites, you got plenty of room to move around up there.
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Yeah, space is really big.
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So it's not like space is going to get crowded.
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space is enormous.
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Like if you zoom in close to the satellite, it looks big.
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But if you actually look at it relative to the Earth, the satellites are so tiny you can't even see them.
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So they're very, very tiny compared to Earth.
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And I mean, we have about 10,000 starlings in orbit right now.
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We've got a pretty good idea of how to operate just really large constellations and do it safely now, right?
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We are the only operator that has any experience of that scale.
275
It's a great thing that we have this background, so we know how tightly we can pack the satellites and fly them safely.
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That's a number one goal when we look at the constellation.
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We're gonna be building a lot of satellites and we're gonna be building them here in Bastrop, right?
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So we've got this, which, So we're in that building kind of in the middle, which...
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Yeah, we're sitting in that building right now.
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This is my first time here.
281
The building is massive.
282
Like, you come around the corner, you see it through the trees, and you're like, oh, wow.
283
But we're about to kind of put this building to shame, aren't we?
284
Yes, we're going to...
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In fact, we already have the solar manufacturing facility.
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It's under construction already.
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and then we will be building out the AI sat production building soon.
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And yeah, so we expect to have the AI sat production,
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the solar production, and all of that operating at some reasonable volume by the end of next year.
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So if anybody wants to work on AI satellites, this is kind of going to become the hub of that.
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We're also, so I mean like right behind us, machines are humming, we're still making all of our user terminals for Starlink here.
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That's not going anywhere.
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In fact, we're turning on new production lines for new units, right?
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Yes.
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In fact, these are the new Starlink terminals, which we've made in much higher volume than the current terminals.
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Ultimately, we think there's probably going to be a few hundred million Starlink terminals out there
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and then our the Starlink direct-to-cell constellation will
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connect directly to people's cell phones and enable high bandwidth communication directly from your phone to space.
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All right we're two limiting factors down we've got master orbit, we've got putting solar and the third one's chips.
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Yes so at least in the beginning we can obviously launch the chips that are already being made.
301
So our current reference design is for NVIDIA Rubin chips,
302
or it could be either GB300 or Rubin chips.
303
And we'll also have a reference design for TPUs.
304
And essentially, you can put any existing chips into Orbit.
305
But the current industry seems to be...
306
It seems like it's going to get to maybe around 100 gigawatts a year of AI compute,
307
but that doesn't answer the question of, well, how do you get to a terawatt?
308
That's why you need the TeraFap.
309
Always looking a step bigger.
310
Yeah.
311
Yeah.
312
In order to get to the next order of magnitude, you need a gigantic ship factory.
313
And to give you a sense of scale here, we expect that the TerraFab is going to be around 100 million square feet,
314
which is 10 times the size of the Tesla Gigafactory Texas.
315
And what aside from just, you know, I'm going to need Starship point to point to get from one end to the other, aside from just the size, what's going to make this unique,
316
different from any other chip building operation on the planet?
317
Well, I think over time, there's going to be a lot of technology evolution with the TerraFab.
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But fundamentally, it's about scale.
319
So even if there were no fundamental technology breakthroughs,
320
and you could simply scale the existing chip-making technology with a lot of difficulty to a terawatt of chip output per year.
321
If you look at it just from the logic DAI standpoint,
322
that's like having a billion chips per year with a kilowatt per radical.
323
a billion full radical equivalent chips, each doing a kilowatt, and then you're going to need a lot of memory to go with that.
324
A lot of people today even think orbital data centers were like a decade away.
325
Yeah, I think we want to try to give people a sense of the time frame.
326
At least the time frame we're aiming for.
327
I mean, people should take this with a grain of salt to some degree, because this is just our best guess.
328
So this is not a promise of what we'll do.
329
This is what we are going to try to do and think we probably can do,
330
which is to get to roughly an annualized rate of a
331
gigawatt per year by the end of next year in terms of space AI compute.
332
And then aspirationally scale that by an order of magnitude per year.
333
So in two and a half years, hitting an annualized rate of 10 gigawatts a year to space, in three and a half years, maybe 100 gigawatts.
334
And then depending upon what progress there is in chip making in the rest of the world and with the TerraFab,
335
going beyond that to scale to a terawatt per year, which is 1,000 gigawatts.
336
That's twice the current electricity consumption of the United States.
337
I think there will be an appetite for that, but we'll see.
338
It's a lot of satellites.
339
I don't know what I'm just going to think about, but maybe do a lot of simulations or something.
340
So after we've, you know, worked through all the limiting factors, we've kind of topped out what we can do on Earth,
341
what is the next step to, again, try and actually notch maybe some percentage points towards becoming Kardashev Level 2?
342
Why stop there?
343
Why think small?
344
because a terawatt actually is very small.
345
I don't want you to think small.
346
That's not a thing small.
347
So there is, in order to get to another three orders of magnitude, to 1,000x from a terawatt per year,
348
the only way that we can really see that you can achieve that is on the moon with a mass driver,
349
essentially where you do local production of photovoltaics and radiators on the moon.
350
maybe you bring the chips from Earth or you could conceivably make the chips on the Moon.
351
But you need most of the mass to be made on the Moon
352
so you don't have to transport it to the Moon from Earth.
353
And then because the Moon has no atmosphere and only one-sixth Earth's gravity,
354
you can accelerate the AI satellites into deep space without a rocket.
355
So you can basically shoot them into space using an electromagnetic gun, like a railgun type.
356
I mean, it's basically a linear electric motor is the way to think about it.
357
That's the thing we can show people.
358
The End
359
I'm sorry.
360
I'm sorry.
361
I mean, if that doesn't get you excited for the future, I don't really know what will.
362
I'm fired up to see a mass driver on the moon.
363
That would be very cool.
364
Yeah.
365
Sci-fi future.
366
Yeah.
367
Yeah.
368
It would also mean that if we're bringing that amount of mass to the moon, it would mean that anyone who wants to go to the moon will be able to go to the moon.
369
And I think that would be pretty cool.
370
Yeah.
371
I'm going to be jumping first in line to get up there.
372
Yeah, I mean, everyone should go to the moon at least once, I think.
373
Just once.
374
Yeah.
375
You can move there if you want.
376
Go live on the moon.
377
We'll see.
378
Thanks, guys, for chatting with me for a little bit.
379
All right.
380
Excited to see a whole new kind of satellite, a whole bunch more Starship launches, more chips, more solar, more everything.
381
It's a big future, but I'm excited to see everybody at this company go out and build.
382
All right.
383
Sounds good.
384
It's exciting.
385
Thanks, guys.
386
Bye.
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Vocabulário e dicas de fala para esta lição
Este vídeo tem 386 frases e 4450 palavras para praticar shadowing. A fala dura 31:18. O falante mantém um ritmo estável de cerca de 142 palavras por minuto, confortável para o shadowing. 83% das palavras estão entre as 3.000 mais comuns do inglês; vale a pena estudar o restante antes de começar.
Vocabulário principal deste vídeo
15 palavras do vídeo que vale a pena aprender, com pronúncia e significado:
| Palavra | Pronúncia | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| satellite substantivo | /ˈsætəlaɪ̯t/ | satélite |
| chip substantivo | /t͡ʃɪp/ | lasca, fragmento |
| rocket substantivo | /ˈɹɑk.ɪt/ | foguete |
| orbit substantivo | /ˈɔɹ.bɪt/ | órbita, círculo |
| civilization substantivo | /ˌsɪv.ɪ.laɪˈzeɪ.ʃən/ | civilização |
| harness verbo | /ˈhɑɹ.nəs/ | arrear, atrelar |
| metre substantivo | /ˈmiːtəɹ/ | metro |
| laser substantivo | /ˈleɪzɚ/ | laser, lêiser |
| watt substantivo | /wɑt/ | watt |
| percentage substantivo | /pə(ɹ)ˈsɛntɪd͡ʒ/ | percentagem, porcentagem |
| output substantivo | /ˈaʊtpʊt/ | produção |
| terminal substantivo | /ˈtɚmɪnəl/ | terminal |
| ton substantivo | /tʌn/ | tonelada |
| magnitude substantivo | /ˈmæɡnɪtjuːd/ | grandeza, magnitude |
| antenna substantivo | /ænˈtɛn.ə/ | antena |
Phrasal verbs que você vai ouvir
| Palavra | Pronúncia | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| come around verbo | /kʌ.məˈɹaʊnd/ | mudar de ideia |
| figure out verbo | descobrir, deduzir | |
| get up verbo | subir | |
| go out verbo | sair | |
| go up verbo | subir | |
| show off verbo | mostrar-se, jactar-se | |
| throw away verbo | deitar fora, jogar fora |
Gramática neste vídeo
As estruturas que o falante mais usa, com as palavras exatas do vídeo:
| Estrutura | No vídeo |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + particípio passado — uma ação passada que ainda importa agora | It's been · has made · we've made |
| Voz passiva be + particípio passado — o foco está no que acontece, não em quem faz | should be called · have been abandoned · be caught |
| Orações relativas who / which + oração — informação extra sobre uma pessoa ou coisa | pathetic, which is · capability, which is · optimization, which is |
Pronúncia para ficar de olho
O falante usa 104 contrações e formas reduzidas, como we're, we've, I'm. Diga-as na forma curta, do jeito que você ouve.
- Os sons de “th”: thrust /θɹʌst/, breakthrough /ˈbɹeɪk.θɹuː/, thick /θɪk/, sixth /sɪksθ/, pathetic /pəˈθɛtɪk/
- Os sons de “sh” e “zh”: civilization /ˌsɪv.ɪ.laɪˈzeɪ.ʃən/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, capture /ˈkæp.(t)ʃɚ/, evolution /ˌiːvəˈluːʃ(ə)n/, consumption /kənˈsʌmp.ʃən/
- Palavras longas — acerte a sílaba tônica: civilization /ˌsɪv.ɪ.laɪˈzeɪ.ʃən/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, difficulty /ˈdɪfɪkəlti/, incredibly /ɪŋˈkɹɛdɪbli/, fundamental /ˌfʌn.dəˈmɛn.təl/
Como praticar com este vídeo
- Ouça o vídeo inteiro uma vez sem falar e anote as palavras que você não conhece.
- Faça shadowing frase por frase na velocidade normal, repetindo cada uma até o seu ritmo ficar igual ao do falante.
- Grave a sua voz e compare com o original, prestando atenção a palavras como satellite, chip, rocket.
O que é a Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing é uma técnica de aprendizado de idiomas com base científica, originalmente desenvolvida para o treinamento de intérpretes profissionais. O método é simples, mas poderoso: você ouve áudio em inglês nativo e repete imediatamente em voz alta — como uma sombra seguindo o falante com 1-2 segundos de atraso. Pesquisas mostram melhora significativa na precisão da pronúncia, entonação, ritmo, sons conectados, compreensão auditiva e fluência na fala.