Практика Shadowing: Is Solar About to Get WAY Better? (I Did the Math) - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

Выберите режим практики

Каждый режим открывает полноэкранную комнату практики.

215 предложений

Если предложения слишком короткие или длинные, нажмите Edit, чтобы их изменить.

Perovskite solar cells could hit 35% efficiency and cost half as much as silicon.

But they're still years away from your roof.

Meanwhile, silicon panels just lost their 30% federal tax credit here in the US, making them suddenly more expensive.

So here's the $20,000 question.

What's the better path in value?

Should you wait for the next solar breakthrough technology to finally arrive?

Or install silicon solar panels right now?

Which gives you the better bang for your buck?

I'm Matt Farrell.

Welcome to Undecided.

This video is brought to you by 8sleep.

I get asked about solar a lot.

People send me their quotes, their roof diagrams, their utility bills.

But the question that comes up more than any other.. should I wait?

Wait for the next breakthrough.

Wait for the prices to drop.

Wait for the technology to get better.

I've installed solar on two different homes now, so I've gone through this decision myself.

And here's the thing.

That question never really goes away.

There's always something newer on the horizon.

So let's figure out if waiting actually makes sense.

And to figure that out, we need to understand the technologies that we're considering.

Today's silicon sells versus next-gen options like perovskite.

When I say the word solar panel, you're almost certainly picturing silicon photovoltaics, or PV.

That's for a good reason.

They're pretty much everywhere nowadays.

I've got 43 of them on the roof of my home, plus 4 more on a shed in the backyard.

Silicon is very common on Earth.

It's actually one of the most abundant elements and it's pretty cost efficient and effective as a photovoltaic material.

Perovskite PVs work in very similar fashions to silicon PVs.

From installation, purchasing and appearance, there's no difference.

The big difference is their tunable band gap.

So think of it like this.

Every solar material has a sweet spot for converting light into electricity.

Silicon is stuck at one setting.

But perovskites can be tuned to match different conditions, which is why they can be so much more efficient.

I've got videos that go into more detail if you're interested that I'll link to in the description.

The tunability of perovskites also unlocks the power of tandem solar cells.

We can tune the perovskites to eat a different wavelength of light from what the silicon can.

A light in the range of 380 to 700 nanometers slams into the perovskite and works through that system as normal.

But near infrared light at wavelengths of about 800 to 2500 pierces through the perovskites.

that would just be lost, but a layer of silicon behind the perovskite can absorb it.

By working in, well, tandem, the solar cells duo can let us double dip and extract more energy from that same beam of light.

They can hit conversion efficiencies of near 35%, which is much better than silicon or perovskite on their own.

One final thing before we get into the nitty gritty of the math.

All of the advantages of perovskites come with some drawbacks.

Perovskites are temperamental little crystals that degrade when exposed to moisture, heat, and prolonged UV radiation.

That's a big problem for any device that's meant to soak up the sun, especially if it wants to compete with that 25 plus year longevity of the humble silicon cell.

Overcoming this challenge has been at the forefront of perovskite research.

A few companies like Oxford PV have claimed

that they've conquered this with tandem PVs that are durable enough to compete with silicon and are already commercially deployed.

The current crop of tandem cells have more modest efficiencies, around 25%, but are expected hit 30% within a few years.

That's why it's really sparking this whole debate of get solar now or wait.

Given Perovskite's advantages, you might think this is settled.

Before we do the math though, I want to talk about something else that's got me all heated up and then cooled right back down again.

That's today's sponsor, 8Sleep.

I love it warm.

Like, climb into a toasty bed, heavy blanket.

This is the best part of my day warm.

But I also can't sleep hot.

The moment I'm actually asleep, I want it cool.

My wife thinks I'm a nightmare.

And she's not wrong.

Which is why I've been using 8 Sleep since it was a Kickstarter project.

Seriously, I've been using it since the original version.

And the Pod 5 is what that idea has grown into.

The Pod sits right on top of your existing mattress.

It warms up when I get in, exactly how I like it, then it cools back down as the night goes on.

My wife runs her side completely different.

Same bed, totally separate temperatures.

We've never thought about the thermostat since.

But the real reason I keep coming back to it?

The sleep quality.

I travel a fair amount and I feel the difference every single time I'm away from home.

My deep sleep drops.

I wake up feeling foggy and not well rested.

Coming home to the pod is genuinely one of the highlights of getting back.

8sleep's autopilot learns from your patterns and automatically adjusts temperature throughout the night.

It also tracks your sleep stages, heart rate variability and more.

No wearables needed.

The best part is that you still get 30 days to try it in your home

and return it if you don't like it.

but I'm confident you're going to love it.

Trust me, your body will thank you for this investment in better sleep.

Use my code MATT at 8sleep.com slash Matt Ferrell for up to $350 off the Pod5 Ultra.

Thanks to 8sleep and to all of you for supporting the channel.

Alright, back to the math.

So should you wait for Solar 3.0 or go with reliable silicon?

A quick caveat, I'm working with US dollars here with average pricing, so there's going to be some generalizations.

There There are tons of variables here.

Your situation is going to be very different.

Ok, what's our baseline?

Let's go with a 6kW system.

It's on the smaller end and should fit most roofs.

It's large enough to see a real change in your bills.

The average cost of installing a 6kW system in the United States is $15,900.

That includes labor, panels, permits, and local rebates.

A system of this size will save about $1500 annually on your electric bill.

100

Obviously, this depends on how much electricity you use and how much energy your PVs produce.

101

But again, we have to deal in averages here.

102

How long will it last?

103

The well-documented answer is 20-30 years.

104

To keep things simple, let's just say 25 years.

105

Here's the math.

106

$1,500 for 25 years is $37,500 in lifetime savings.

107

Subtract your install costs of $15,900 from that and you get the real savings of $21,600 on average.

108

It's not too shabby.

109

For payback, divide 15,900 by 1,500 annual savings.

110

That's 10.6 years, which is roughly half the system's lifetime.

111

It's actually better than that for most people, but we'll just let that go for now.

112

I think just about anyone would be happy with the numbers we've got here, but they could be better.

113

Location matters.

114

A 6 kilowatt system in Phoenix, Arizona, known monument to man's arrogance,

115

will generate around 35% more electricity than that same system near me in Boston.

116

And while the federal tax credit ended on January 1st, your city, state or neighborhood may offer rebates.

117

In markets like Australia, with better incentives and more sun, that same 6kW system costs around $4,300 and saves even more.

118

So what about the next-gen technologies?

119

What kind of cost savings are you looking at for perovskite tandem cells?

120

Let's do our best to figure it out.

121

I want to be very clear here, we're working with the best information available at the moment.

122

And while some companies are targeting earlier release dates for residential markets like 2028,

123

the current consensus prediction is that commercial residential perovskites won't become a mainstream option until like 2030.

124

A lot can change even in a couple years and we could be way off, but to make things fair for materials and easier on us,

125

let's assume that the installation cost for perovskite tandem cells is the exact same as silicon.

126

It really should be.

127

Also to keep everything square, we'll assume that we're going for a 6 kilowatt system again.

128

So how much does a 6 kilowatts of perovskite tandem cells cost?

129

Techno-economic analysis from the National Renewable Energy Lab suggests that American-made,

130

25% efficient tandem panels could be as cheap as $0.29 to $0.42 per watt.

131

This does assume that we can manufacture them at gigawatt scale factories, which I think is unlikely to happen by 2028 or maybe even 2030.

132

We'll just roll with it for now and say that it's $0.35 per watt.

133

But that's just the manufacturing cost, which is only about 12% of the total installation cost.

134

To figure out how much it costs the consumer, we also have to work out how much it will cost to install per watt.

135

That includes stuff like labor, shipping, the racks and rails that will attach to the roof, and you get the idea.

136

So let's try to flatten some variables and assume the cost is identical to silicon.

137

In 2026, silicon modules look to be around 21 cents per watt.

138

Plugging that into our calculations for a 6kW silicon system, 12% of 15,900 is equal to $1,908.

139

Meaning everything outside of the manufacturing costs is $13,992.

140

So at $0.35 per watt, the manufacturing cost of 6kW of panels would be $2,100.

141

Add the $13,992 back in and theoretically that means a 6kW perovskite system would run you about $16,092.

142

That's not all that different.

143

The bigger your system, the more the manufacturing cost difference adds up.

144

But that's the upfront cost.

145

How much will perovskite systems save you over time?

146

Oxford PV offers the most solid numbers here.

147

Their modules hit a reported 26.9% efficiency.

148

That's ahead of silicon's 20-24% range.

149

Oxford is targeting 30% by 2030, but let's use today's conservative numbers.

150

For our comparison, we'll assume 22% efficient silicon panels and keep everything else identical.

151

At 26.9% efficiency compared to 22% for silicon, a perovskite tandem system is about 22.3% more efficient.

152

With that 22.3% efficiency boost, perovskite saves you an extra $335 annually.

153

That's $1,835 per year total.

154

But perovskites don't last as long as silicon.

155

Silicon currently max out around 15 years, though many companies are targeting 20 years by 2028.

156

At 20 years, you're looking at a lifetime savings of about $36,690.

157

Subtract the $16,092 for the install costs and you get the real savings of $20,600.

158

That's worse than silicon's $21,600.

159

If perovskites stay stuck at 15 years, it gets worse.

160

However, if they match silicon's 25 year lifespan, that extra $335 per year adds up to over $8,000 more than silicon.

161

Payback period is 8.8 years regardless.

162

About 2 years faster than silicon.

163

So is that the final word?

164

Victory to Silicon?

165

No. As we've mentioned before, I tried to make the math as general and simple as possible, so that we could get a handle on the situation.

166

However, there's a lot of variables and caveats that we have to consider.

167

Location matters.

168

A lot.

169

Sunnier places will outperform temperate regions like New England.

170

Panel direction matters too.

171

In the Northern Hemisphere, they generally face south, but if that side of your roof is shaded or limited, your output suffers.

172

On the financial side, there's also incentives.

173

While the federal tax credit just ended, your state or city might offer rebates.

174

Again, I point to Australia, where friendlier incentives, policies, and a different level of tech maturity lets residents of even

175

Australia's most expensive states install rooftop solar for cheaper than the cheapest American states.

176

And the flip side of incentives are tariffs.

177

Current tariffs on China and Southeast Asia affect most silicon panels on the US market, but not elsewhere.

178

Whether those tariffs help or hurt perovskites depends on where they're manufactured and who's buying.

179

When it comes to perovskites, there's still a lot of unknowns.

180

I've made assumptions about costs and performance.

181

By the time they actually hit the mass scale, the market could shift and throw our calculations just way off.

182

In fact, they probably will.

183

There's no guarantee that the first generation will be as cheap or efficient as expected, or as cheap as the second and third generations.

184

The biggest factor is opportunity costs silicon installs take 1-3 days.

185

Perovskites?

186

The current consensus is that we're not expected to see residential commercial perovskites hit in a meaningful way until 2030.

187

Oxford PV is targeting 2028, while conservative estimates say that it's 2035.

188

That's years of lost savings while you wait.

189

So what should you do?

190

Here's my take.

191

If you want to save money, be greener, or more energy resilient, whatever your personal motivation may be, don't wait.

192

I've installed silicon panels twice and I have zero regrets.

193

Even after moving after just 5 years.

194

Silicon works.

195

It's proven.

196

You can get it installed relatively quickly and start saving immediately.

197

If it doesn't make financial sense right now, that's fine too.

198

Prices keep dropping for both technologies.

199

But if you can swing it?

200

The math says go now.

201

Every month that you wait is a month of lost savings.

202

So while the next generation of solar technology is exciting, I wouldn't wait.

203

But what do you think?

204

Do you want to wait for the next-gen solar to arrive?

205

If so, why?

206

Jump into the comments and let me know.

207

You can also check out my extended cuts of my videos over on Patreon.

208

And speaking of that, these videos take a team to make.

209

A team of humans with real research, real interviews, real feedback from experts.

210

No AI slop.

211

If that matters to you, Patreon support helps a ton.

212

The link's in the description if you'd like to join, but honestly, just watching like you are right now is awesome.

213

So thank you.

214

And check out my follow up podcast, still to be determined we'll keep this conversation going.

215

Keep your mind open, stay curious, and I'll see you in the next one.

Скачать приложение

Всё для свободной речи

ИИ-оценка произношенияОценка каждой фразы

Практика IPAОсвойте каждый звук

СловарьСоберите свой словарный запас

Игра со словамиУчитесь играя

Сканировать QR

Download on theApp Store Get it onGoogle Play

Тот же канал

FOR YOU

Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку

В этом видео 215 предложений и 2317 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 13:11. Говорящий говорит в естественном темпе, около 176 слов в минуту, близком к повседневной речи. Только 80% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка, поэтому лексика сложная.

Ключевая лексика этого видео

15 слов из видео, которые стоит выучить, с произношением и значением:

Слово	Произношение	Значение
silicon существительное	/ˈsɪləˌkɑn/	кре́мний, сили́ций
install глагол	/ɪnˈstɔl/	устана́вливать, установи́ть
efficient прилагательное	/ɪˈfɪʃənt/	эффекти́вный
efficiency существительное	/ɪˈfɪʃ.ən.si/	эффекти́вность
mathematics существительное	/mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/	матема́тика
watt существительное	/wɑt/	ватт
incentive существительное	/ɪnˈsɛntɪv/	сти́мул, моти́в
lifetime существительное	/ˈlaɪf.taɪm/	продолжи́тельность жи́зни, це́лая жизнь
residential прилагательное	/ˌrɛzɪˈdɛnʃəl/	жило́й, жили́щный
installation существительное	/ˌɪn.stəˈleɪ.ʃən/	устано́вка, инсталля́ция
variable прилагательное	[ˈvæɹ.i.ə.bl̩]	переме́нный, изме́нчивый
compete глагол	/kəmˈpiːt/	соревнова́ться, состяза́ться
arrive глагол	/əˈɹaɪv/	прибыва́ть, прибы́ть
tune существительное	/tjuːn/	мело́дия, моти́в
identical прилагательное	/ɪˈdɛntɪkl̩/	иденти́чный, одина́ковый

Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите

Слово	Произношение	Значение
check out глагол		проверя́ть, прове́рить
figure out глагол		разбира́ться, разобра́ться
back down глагол		пойти́ на усту́пки, пойти́ на попя́тный
come up глагол		поднима́ться, подня́ться
go away глагол		уходи́ть, уйти́
heat up глагол		разогрева́ть, разогре́ть
wake up глагол	/ˌweɪk ˈʌp/	просыпа́ться, просну́ться
warm up глагол	/ˌwɔː(ɹ)m ˈʌp/	нагрева́ться, нагре́ться

Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание

Говорящий использует 44 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например I've, I'm, we'll. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.

Звуки «th»: mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, breakthrough /ˈbɹeɪk.θɹuː/, wavelength /ˈweɪvˌlɛŋ(k)θ/, thermostat /ˈθɝməstæt/
Звуки «sh» и «zh»: efficient /ɪˈfɪʃənt/, efficiency /ɪˈfɪʃ.ən.si/, residential /ˌrɛzɪˈdɛnʃəl/, installation /ˌɪn.stəˈleɪ.ʃən/, calculation /ˌkælkjuˈleɪʃn̩/
Длинные слова — следите за ударением: efficiency /ɪˈfɪʃ.ən.si/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, electricity /ɪˌlɛkˈtɹɪsɪti/, residential /ˌrɛzɪˈdɛnʃəl/, installation /ˌɪn.stəˈleɪ.ʃən/

Как заниматься с этим видео

Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
Начните со скорости 0,75×, повторяйте предложение за предложением и вернитесь к обычной скорости, когда станет легко.
Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как silicon, install, efficient.

Грамматика в этом видео

Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:

Конструкция	В видео
Present Perfect Continuous have/has been + -ing — действие началось раньше и продолжается	I've been using
Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас	I've installed · has been · have claimed
Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает	is brought · can be tuned · be lost
Придаточные определительные who / which + предложение — уточнение о человеке или предмете	conditions, which is · years, which is · cost, which is

Что такое техника Shadowing?

Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.

Техника шедоуинга: читать полное пошаговое руководство →

Практика Shadowing: Is Solar About to Get WAY Better? (I Did the Math) - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

Выберите режим практики

Скачать приложение

Тот же канал

How Quantum Batteries Break Every Rule of Charging

The Hidden Problem With Home Batteries

How Solar Is Beating Nuclear's Best Idea

How the Worst Oil Crisis in History is Backfiring

Why Australia’s Solar Is So Cheap (And Ours Isn’t)

The Truth About Ocean Plastic

Рекомендуемое видео

Color Palettes Worth Another Look

Is AI Doom Real... or Just Good Marketing?

Basic Solar Components & How They Work - Solar Panels, Inverter, Batteries, & More Explained (Ep. 2)

iPhone 17 Pro Max Review - 6 Months Later

It Sucks for 3 Days But It Makes Waking Up Early Effortless - Dr Andrew Huberman

Great Moments in Unintended Consequences: Yosemite Permits, Italy Superbonus, Salary Caps (Vol. 22)

5 Stages to Getting Rich in 2026: Which One Are You?

Carbon Fiber - The Material Of The Future?

I might have found the BEST budget router...

$182 Skinceuticals vs. $16 e.l.f. Vitamin C Serum (is it a dupe??)

How Agri-Voltaics are Changing Agriculture | The Power of Solar Panels | EyeTech