Luyện nói tiếng Anh bằng Shadowing qua video: ULTIMATE Supply and Demand Masterclass (Beginner to Pro)
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In this masterclass, I'm going to teach you everything that you need to know about one of the best concepts in trading, supply and demand.
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We are going to go through all of this and by the end of the video, you will fully understand the theory of supply and demand and how to apply it to find great trades.
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So with that said, let's get into the video.
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To briefly explain the theory of supply and demand, this is the thing that drives all markets.
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So we're looking at a price scale here And when demand increases, so this will be our demand line, we see an increase in the price of an asset.
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So let's peg this to gold for this example.
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As demand for gold increases, the price of gold also increases.
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This happens because the supply of gold that's available, ready to trade in the market, declines with the increase in demand.
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Now, why does this happen?
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Why does supply fall as demand rises? as well.
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It's because of course
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if there are lots of people trying to buy an asset
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i.e. there is lots of demand then there are going to be people buying
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that asset taking available supply off of the market.
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So that means as demand increases more assets are bought up and the supply will decrease.
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A lower supply creates higher scarcity and a higher scarcity demands higher prices
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because of course
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if something is rare versus something that's not rare the price is going to be more expensive for the rare item.
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Okay.
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That is simply how it works.
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It's a very simple format.
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If we then saw demand start to slow down, so we saw the market coming back down in terms of demand,
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this would mean people are selling their assets.
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Now, if they're selling their assets, the supply is going to increase.
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Okay.
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And as supply increases, of course, there are more readily available units in the market, which generally means if there is less scarcity,
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the price is therefore going to decrease.
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So as we see an increase in demand, we see supply lowering because the assets are being bought up.
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When we see demand decrease, we see more assets being sold to the market.
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Therefore, a lower price comes in due to the fact that there is now more available supply, less scarcity, and simply the fact that if demand's low,
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pretty much means no one wants the asset.
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To bring supply and demand into our actual trading and our technical analysis, we do this using zones.
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So this here and this here indicate supply and demand zones.
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A demand zone is an area in the market before a large upward move.
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So when we see a sideways bit of price action, can be an individual candle, show you some examples in a moment, and then a large push away, this creates a demand zone.
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When we see the same, that kind of sideways price action of one candle or maybe more before a large move down, this creates a supply zone.
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Now to talk about the theory as to why this happens, basically the reason that we use this as our demand zone
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or our supply zone is because it's showing us where buying and selling pressure came into the market.
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Now in order for the market to slow down, kind of recoil and consolidate before a large push up, that tells us that this region here,
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where it slowed down, where it went sideways, is where massive buying orders have been placed.
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That is why the market drove higher because demand kicked in here, supply was bought up the price appreciates because of that increase in demand and decrease in supply.
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In the supply example here we see the area of consolidation
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before a large move down as essentially a point where new supply has entered the market.
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Demand has declined, more assets have been sold readily available to trade, therefore with more supply and lower demand the price depreciates.
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Now the way that we actually trade these then is to buy demand zones
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when the the market returns to them or to sell supply zones when the market returns to them as well.
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So in the case of a demand zone, knowing that this area here is an area where significant buying has taken place, we know that this is what we could call a discount price.
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Traders before saw this as a very good price to buy this asset.
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So they stepped in in mass and we saw that large drive of momentum.
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If we then get up to this point and we start to slow down, this is telling us
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that the price up here is no longer seen as a discount price to buy
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and it's no longer seen as a good price to purchase this asset.
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However we know, we have solid confirmation that this area here was indeed seen as a good place to buy from, a good price level to purchase this asset.
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So the theory is and the concept is
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if the market is to return to this price range again
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we are likely to see a second phase of buying coming in because this is a discount price region.
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If it was a good price to buy before and now the market's appreciated, you can be damn sure it's going to be seen by a lot of people as a good price to buy again.
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The same goes for supply, except this is what we would call a premium price level.
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So this was a premium price to sell your assets at, whether you are taking a buy trade and you're closing out for profit,
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or you're getting into a short sell position where you've sold with the intention of profiting from a down move.
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regardless it's a premium price to sell from and now the market's lower so
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if you're holding a buy maybe you don't want to sell it down here you'd rather sell it up here
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because the higher you sell it for the more profit you're going to get and
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if you want to get into a short position to profit
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from a down move well you don't want to do it down here
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because if you do it from up here you're going to get a much better entry
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which means more profits this entire range you could actually profit
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from instead of just you know selling all the way down here and hoping the market doesn't return.
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So therefore with this understanding that this is a premium price to sell from
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if the market is able to return to this level again
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this is going to be a prime place to place a short order and to profit therefore from the move down.
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So that is how supply and demand zones work.
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Let's take a look at those on real charts.
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So here we have a market that is in a downtrend.
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We're going to identify a supply zone
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and show you what it looks like in the real markets on a real candlestick chart.
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So we can see we have this big push to the downside.
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This candle here is an area of consolidation.
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Now how do we indicate an area of consolidation or indecision?
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Generally when we are plotting supply
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and demand the simple rule is to use an indecision candle and I like to use the last candle before the impulse.
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Okay so what this means is I don't care what color the candle is, but I want to see the last candle before an impulsive move away.
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So if we take a look at this one here and we take a look at this one here, these are indecision candles.
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They are indicated as indecision by the fact they have large wicks and very small candle bodies.
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Wicks show rejected prices.
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So what we're seeing here with these wicks is attempts to go higher, attempts to go lower.
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And what we see with a small candle body is pretty much failure to get far in one direction either way.
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Okay, we didn't get high, we didn't get low in this given period of price action.
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So this creates an indecision candle.
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Now we are looking for the last indecision candle before an impulsive move.
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An impulsive move is a strong bearish or bullish candle or a series of strong bearish and bullish candles.
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So you can see the candle I've just marked here, this is a impulsive candle.
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It's a large sell candle with no resistance from the buyers.
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We see as well, this one after this indecision candle is a large selling candle with clear strength from sellers.
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Okay.
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No resistance from buyers.
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So that is how we're going to be plotting these in real time.
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We want to see the last indecision candle before the impulse.
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Last candle before the impulse is the rule I use.
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Now, if you've learned supply and demand anywhere else before, you might have the last down candle before the up move, the last up candle before the down move as a rule.
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I don't use that, I use the last candle before the impulse.
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The reason I do this is because it is this candle here where the selling pressure has accumulated, okay?
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It's not the last up candle where the selling pressure came in.
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This was a strong bullish candle.
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It's here.
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It's the very last candle before the impulsive move.
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It's exactly where the momentum has built up to create a selling move.
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It's the selling pressure.
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So that is the rule, last candle before the impulse.
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It's going to be the one that we use for our supply zones okay
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so now to show you this example we're going to focus
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in on this one we're going to talk a bit more about differentiating zones a bit later
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but for now we've got our supply zone to mark a supply zone we find
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that last candle before the impulse
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and we want to mark the high to the low
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that includes the wicks
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so our supply zone would be this okay we've just gone
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high to low of this candle what we would then expect is for the market to return to this level
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and then sell off from there because we know that that's where the selling pressure has been previously.
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We know this is a premium price to sell from
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so we would expect that to take place once again and this is going to be a supply zone.
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So we're going to market SZ.
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Why is it supply?
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Because it's in a downtrend.
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It's a selling move.
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Demand is obviously when we pull back to a buying zone.
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Supply is when we pull back to a selling zone.
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So this is a supply zone.
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So what we could generally expect to see from here then, having plotted that correctly, would be the market to return to here.
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We would look to sell there and then we would profit from a new low being formed as the market falls.
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So just as a very simple example trade, we would have our entry there, stop above the zone and our target down at the low.
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We're going to get more into all of this stuff soon, but first brief example, here it is.
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So there we go.
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We see the market push into the supply zone.
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And what actually happens here
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when the supply zone is hit is a new wave of selling pressure comes in because of that discount price level.
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Because that premium price has been hit, sellers that sold here before are more than happy to sell here again.
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And you get this nice positive movement straight down to your target, which is, of course, how we make profits from supply and demand.
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Now, one very important thing about supply and demand is that you use it in line with the overall trend direction.
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So we can see this market is falling.
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It's creating lower lows and lower highs, meaning every low is lower than the previous one and every high is lower than the previous one as well.
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So what this tells us is that the market is in what we call a downtrend, okay?
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And in a downtrend, we only want to focus on selling supply zones.
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We do not want to buy demand zones.
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If we take a look at this market, we have multiple areas we could see potentially as demand zones.
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But if we were to buy these every time the market came into them, we would be destroyed, okay?
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All of these areas would classify as demand zones.
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But if you were buying here on the way down, you're buying here, you're buying here, you're going to get killed.
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You're going to lose loads of trades.
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So the kind of sneaky thing about supply and demand is that supply and demand zones visibly appear everywhere, but you need to trade them in context.
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So in a market that is moving down, we only want to sell from supply zones.
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We do not want to focus on demand zones.
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Now I'm going to give you a very quick class on market structure to explain it.
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Let's go.
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So through this phase of price action, just here we can see the market is creating higher highs
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and higher lows okay
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so a higher high very simply is just a high like
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this that's been printed in the market that's higher than the previous one
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higher lows again it's just a low that's higher than the previous one
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so as the market is creating higher highs and higher lows
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that puts it in an uptrend and
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that means the only thing we should focus on doing here
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is buying demand zones we should not sell supply through here so this is an uptrend.
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We want to buy demand and that is how we trade when the market is forming higher highs and higher lows.
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At this point we see the market shift and it actually breaks into what we call a lower low.
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How do we get this?
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Well simply this low is lower than the previous one therefore it's a lower low
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and through any phase of price action where we can clearly define the market as creating
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lower lows as well as lower highs, we want to be selling supply.
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So if the lows start to form lower than the previous ones, and if the highs start to form lower than the previous ones, this puts us into a downtrend.
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And during a downtrend, we want to pretty much ignore demand zones.
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And in here, we want to sell supply.
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Now, there will be a card in the top corner of this video.
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If you really want further depth on market structure, lucky for you, I have a full masterclass on that as well.
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Click in the top right somewhere and that'll take you to it.
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So here we have a market that is creating lower lows and lower highs.
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Therefore, what would we want to do?
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We would want to sell from supply zones.
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Now, an extra little lesson woven in here.
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I'm going to use this sideways candle, this pullback candle, this kind of indecision candle in this downward move as supply.
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As we can see in this example, there is a little wick here that extends further on the next candle.
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So I would actually use this candle to mark my range, the blue one, but I will extend the high of the zone to the wick that's been created by the next following candle.
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Okay.
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So we use the high there down to the low here that creates our supply zone.
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So the idea is then we are going to sell supply because the market is currently downtrending, creating new lows and new lower highs consistently.
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So that would be pretty much where we get into a trade from that point onwards.
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and as we see the market coming down of course we could then just continue selling supply zone
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so we see again indecision candle the market pulls back to supply
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that would be another opportunity to sell okay
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so that's the general idea as to how we focus on a downtrending phase of price action
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now as we can see coming in from this point we
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are starting to push to the upside taking a look at the structure we actually pushed over this high
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so we have a high lower low lower high lower low
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lower high lower low lower high lower low the market's pushed up
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and now it's created a higher high
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so this actually puts us into an uptrend okay meaning what
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do we want to do in uptrends we want to buy from demand
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so here's our indecision candle our sideways candle before the impulse
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last candle before the impulse is what i use for my zones
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and what we want to do at this point is buy from demand meaning any supply zones
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that form will be ignored okay you can see
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that demand zones did form in this move up
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but we ignored them and focused on selling supply
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because the market direction was down now
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that we've shifted up we want to focus on buying demand
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and we want to ignore supply because the market direction is up and we are moving with the market direction
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using supply and demand to make our executions.
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So in one moment, you will see market returns towards this area of demand, and then we get a tap in and a push away into new highs.
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So that is how we use supply and demand in line with the trend, with a real example there of a downtrend, selling supply, and an uptrend, buying demand.
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So in order to validate a supply or demand zone, we need to make sure there is something we call an imbalance.
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If there is no imbalance into a zone, then it's not a zone that we want to look at.
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If we take a look at where I'm drawing these black lines, we can see just above this candle here, this blue candle, is going to be our supply zone, okay?
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It's the last candle before this impulse to the downside.
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Now, we can see what we have beneath the low of that candle, and then above where price currently is, there is an imbalance, right?
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An imbalance is an open price range.
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It's this area here.
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Basically, what it is, is an area that hasn't been filled yet with wicks.
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If this candle had pushed up and hit
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that area then this would have created what we call efficiency
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and removed any imbalance into that zone but
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because we still have this open price range here that means
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that there is imbalance into this supply zone
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so this would be a good supply zone to sell from okay
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and we would expect
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when the market comes back to it we could happily sell from this point
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because that would fill the imbalance
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and then the market would be likely to move lower now you have to have an imbalance to your supply
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or demand zone otherwise it's not really valid so
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if we take a look above we've got here this indecision
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candle this is the last candle before an impulse to the downside
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and just to clean it up let's get rid of this we'll get rid of this
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but the problem with this zone is there is no imbalance into it anymore right
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so here we have our supply zone we have a push away the market's pulled back filled in balance
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and pushed down so initially if you were looking at this supply and you wanted to sell it here, that would have been okay.
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But now that this has already been filled, now that there is no imbalance, this would not be a good supply zone to try and sell the market from.
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For two reasons.
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Number one, the market probably isn't going to get there because it's probably going to react from the area with the imbalance.
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Number two, if it does get there, because the imbalance has already been filled, there's a high likelihood of it actually pushing higher,
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which means it's low probability and probably isn't going to give you a good trade.
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So we need to trade from supply or demand zones that still have imbalances, okay?
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If we look in this leg of price movement, there is no imbalance up here.
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There's no open price ranges.
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Every wick is touching previous wicks, right?
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So we have this wick pushed up, touch this wick.
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We pull back down.
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We have these wicks being filled by these wicks, but then we have a push down and we have a gap here where the wick is not meeting the wick.
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So that is basically going to create our imbalance, making this the high probability point to sell from and to show you that in action.
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That's the kind of movement we would expect, a fill of the imbalance, and a push to the downside.
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And a rule that goes alongside that is, of course, that a zone is only really good on its first tap-in, okay?
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So here we, of course, had the first tap-in at this point.
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So we created supply, pushed down, pulled back, and then sold off.
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However, if the market was to come back into this supply zone again, we wouldn't want to trust that for a trade because it's already been hit.
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And basically, what we're looking for is for the supply zone to absorb all of the new sell orders
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and drive lower like the one we're currently looking at we
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have supply the market has pulled back filled imbalance as soon
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as we hit supply we absorb all the selling orders new sell orders
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that come into the market we go and make a new low
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which means this supply zone is pretty much redundant now the
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actions we would then want to take would be to start
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looking at you know the next imbalanced supply zones for example maybe like this one
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but if the market was to return to that supply zone again so
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if we came up to here we definitely wouldn't want to
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look for another sell okay the more times a supply zone is hit even
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if it doesn't break the first time the more likely it is
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that soon it's going to break through and actually go the other way
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so let's take a look what happens next not 100 sure on this one
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but we can definitely take a look at that we can see that if the market comes up to this level
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we don't want to sell there again
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because there is a high likelihood as you can see there
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that the market's going to go through it
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so although we had this supply zone prepped up we had the first trade
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which would have been a great trade
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but then the second tap we don't want to sell here
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this is not likely to get us into new lows as you can see it didn't do
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that third tap we don't want to sell there fourth tap we don't want to sell there
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and then on the fifth tap it actually breaks through
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so a supply zone is only really good for its first retest right after
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that ignore it and the Same goes for demand.
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If we're in a buying example, of course, we only want to use the first tap of a demand zone.
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Then we move on to other zones to validate next trades because the more times that demand zone is remet, it's essentially showing us that the buying pressure is not strong in here anymore.
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And it's showing us sellers are really attempting to push this lower and eventually they will likely win.
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So crucial tips to remember when trading supply and demand, always trade it in line with the trend.
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Only trade imbalanced zones.
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So any zones that aren't imbalanced are not worth trading.
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and only trade the first tap of a zone.
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If a zone has been hit three, four, five times, do not trade it, it will likely break.
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Okay, now that we've covered all that, I wanna talk about different zones.
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So we're gonna talk about extreme zones first of all, and then how to approach multiple zones.
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So this market is downtrending.
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Okay, we had a break of structure here.
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The market has created a new lower low at this price point.
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Say we wanna sell this, how are we gonna select which zone to sell from?
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First, we can follow the rule of imbalance.
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We say we want to see imbalances into a supply zone, otherwise there is no reason to take a trade from that point.
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If we take a look anywhere, pretty much from the top of the movement down to here,
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we can see there is no remaining imbalanced zones inside of this price move.
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So every single one of these zones here has been retested by a wick.
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There is no candle where the wicks to wicks are not meeting each other.
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Therefore, there is no imbalance.
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Okay.
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Now there was some slight imbalance created here, but we see that the market filled that range and retested just here.
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So all imbalance before this point is filled.
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There is no imbalance ahead of this level.
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That's going to lead us to look at this area just here.
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And in here, there are two areas that we could look at as our trade entry to sell.
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The first is this one at the top, this indecision candle before this impulsive move down.
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This is what we call the extreme zone.
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Now an extreme zone is simply the furthest zone from price in the existing leg of movement.
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So if there was an imbalance zone up here, being within this leg of movement from the top down to the bottom,
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the extreme zone would be whichever the furthest one from where price currently is, is up here.
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However, there isn't any imbalanced areas up here.
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so the furthest zone from price inside of this existing leg
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of price action from this point we're at now is going to be this one
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that we've drawn the red arrow to
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because this is the final imbalance zone therefore basically
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if the market gets past this we can expect
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because there's no real supply anywhere in here
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that the market has a pretty good likelihood of actually just moving into new highs okay
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so if we're looking for the highest probability place to sell from
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we can do
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that from just here now there is of course a level
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just beneath as well it's going to be this little bit
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of indecision before the continued sell-off now it's not really the greatest supply zone
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and what we still have here is imbalance above
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which is pretty clear which leads us through to a pretty significant point being
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that extreme zone so in an example like this we would definitely want to focus on this zone over this zone.
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However, that's not to say that we have to completely write off any possibility of finding a position from this lower zone.
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We could still maybe see the market flip.
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So what we can do inside of any zones
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when we have a situation where there are multiple zones is we can use what we call a standard confirmation
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or a confirmation entry.
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That's going to be a pattern like what you see here, which is basically where we're looking for a lower time frame structural shift
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and then if the market goes from creating higher highs
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and higher lows inside of this existing trend for example where
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we start here create a high higher low higher high
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if we trend it up like this
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and then we had a shift in this higher high higher
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low structure into a lower low here then we would use
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fractal supply zones to sell again then we could use this
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area a supply zone inside of the smaller price section here to actually get an execution to take the market down.
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Okay.
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So if we approach it this way, basically, if the market confirms a reversal in here, we get a trade.
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If it doesn't confirm a reversal, so if the market just comes up and goes straight through, then because we waited on that confirmation, we actually don't take a loss.
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We just don't take any trade at all because it hasn't confirmed.
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So the extreme zone is the highest probability point to sell from or buy from when it comes to supply and demand.
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We would be happy in this instance then to place a
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sell order in the terms of a sell limit at this level.
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If you're going to be placing sell limits and buy limits, the best place to do that is extreme zones.
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And if you're going to be approaching the market with confirmation or you're approaching a market that has multiple potential zones,
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then you're going to want to use confirmation on pretty much all of them except the extreme zone.
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Now, when we see the market come up into this area.
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We do however get a confirmation entry
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and I want to walk you through it now so you can see what it looks like in the real markets.
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So we're going to remove that for now, the hypothetical sell limit idea, and we'll take a look at this structure that we have right here.
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We've hit the supply zone just there
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which gives us what we want to see to have confidence and clarity to start selling.
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Now the confirmation entry has actually arisen inside of this price action.
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So if we mark the low to the high to the low, this is going to be our trending structure right now.
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Okay.
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We then have basically smaller trending price action like that.
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This is the kind of trend that we have.
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Okay.
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By marking the highs and lows of this bullish movement, we're then basically looking for this to shift bearish to provide us confirmation to sell into this market.
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Now, as we can see then, our swing lows or our higher lows are going to be pretty much this point here
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and then a more significant one will be this one here.
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Now we can see with this bearish candle we've had a closure beneath both of these lows.
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So what this actually does is allow us to sell into this
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because we are seeing with the formation of this lower low that we've just got here, we are seeing the market shifting to bearish, to a selling setting.
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We're seeing it shift to a downtrend which agrees with the high time frame narrative of of course this bearish trend idea.
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So what we do here by bringing this in is actually use kind of the big picture
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and then a more refined smaller picture to build a scenario in the market where the high
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and the low timeframes are in complete agreement.
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When we have that, we can sell with confidence
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because now we know the high time frame is telling us the market is bearish.
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The low time frame has also now agreed and told us the market is bearish.
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We actually use supply and demand here in a fractal nature.
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So fractal essentially means the same patterns will form on all different timeframes.
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They will form in all different scenarios regardless of whether you're looking at the daily, the weekly, regardless of whether you're looking at the high time frame, zoomed out price action or the more refined zoomed in price action.
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It's all going to work the same.
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So the big picture trend, which is going to be this one that we're looking at, this is bearish and we have our supply zone which we wanted to sell from.
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Now the smaller picture trend, which is going to be this one here, has also now shifted bearish.
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And what it's done in doing so is provide us with a supply zone to sell from, right?
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Now, the supply zone in question here is the last indecision candle before the impulse away.
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Very simple stuff.
385
That means we can therefore place our sell limit on this area, target down into the low or wherever we want this to go to.
386
And for this, we don't have to put the stop over this swing high
387
because we have new confirmations inside of this structure.
388
So we can actually put our stop loss over this high, and that's going to provide a very safe trade as well.
389
but this time we have that kind of double confirmation.
390
We've had that shift standard confirmation here, we've sold on this retest here
391
and now we'd be looking for the market to roll over
392
and make a new low given that it's reacted from supply once
393
and then reacted from the second supply providing two supply reactions and as you can see that is exactly what happens.
394
So in a general market scenario you want to focus primarily on the extreme zone
395
which is going to be the last imbalance candle in this leg of price action.
396
For this scenario it's this one here.
397
If there are other zones to focus on such as this one here then the best way to approach these
398
if you want to focus on these zones at all is to go in with the standard confirmation
399
which as you've just seen is actually what we've got going on here.
400
This pattern of shifting from higher highs and higher lows into a lower low
401
and then pulling back and selling from supply can be utilized not only from the extreme zones
402
but from the smaller zones within.
403
If you see this pattern formulating in one of the other
404
zones in a scenario where there are multiple supply zones to choose from then
405
that can give you the confirmation you want in order to get into a trade that is likely to win. But
406
if there is no confirmation such as there wasn't any in
407
this zone then you simply avoid taking the trade meaning in most cases you're going to avoid taking a loss
408
and then you can take your trades comfortably from the extreme zone
409
or if you really want to you can use
410
that confirmation from there anyway and
411
that a lot of the times is going to provide you with a good entry to get in okay
412
but I just want to give you a warning confirmation entries
413
while they are very very strong are not going to happen all of the time
414
if we take a look back at the price action here
415
okay I'll jump it back just to show you at this
416
point our extreme zone was this candle here this indecision candle
417
we had this big push to the downside we have no imbalances above we have no other zones left open.
418
So our extreme zone is the one that we are looking at just here.
419
If you were going to wait for a confirmation from this zone, you would then want to see the market pull in
420
and make a shift in structure like this that would allow you to get into a trade.
421
However, as you will see, and as you may have already seen, there was no confirmation given.
422
In fact, the confirmation for this trade is actually going to be when the market returns all the way to this supply.
423
But this is going to mean you're not able to profit on this entire move down.
424
You're going have to wait for the pullback to get it.
425
So essentially that becomes a missed opportunity.
426
So you can't avoid that from happening.
427
If you focus on extreme zones, as I say, sell and buy limits, most of the time are going to be good from these.
428
It's not always going to work.
429
Sometimes the market will flip on you, but the risk reward you can get from these, you know, if you sold this extreme zone, stop above the zone, target down into, you know, wherever you want it to go.
430
You've got potential 5%, 6%, 7% trades coming in here, which means even if this only won half of the time,
431
you're making a significant profit overall due to the fact that every time you risk $100, you're making $700 in return, right?
432
So they stack up from a risk reward perspective, but that confirmation entry is a really solid way to, number one, double confirm the trades if you really feel like you need it.
433
So, you know, getting in from around this point after this market confirmation has occurred.
434
And number two, you can use this
435
if you're not trading from the extreme zone and if you're looking at a more refined zone as well.
436
So that is kind of how you differentiate between multiple zones.
437
The extreme zone is always the highest probability, the highest reward, the most favorable zone to buy or sell from.
438
But if there are other areas that you might want to look at, just go at it with that confirmation perspective.
439
As long as you wait for
440
that you're going to get what you want you're going to have the confirmation you'll have the confidence
441
and the clarity to get into the trade now just to
442
quickly show you what this looks like from a bullish perspective
443
then we would have instead a demand zone here demand zones
444
retested market pushes up we get a bullish break of structure this time
445
so the market pushes over these lower highs
446
and then pulling back we want to utilize the demand zone the last kind of for the impulse that broke the structure, that's where we're going to be getting into a trade there.
447
You can trade that up to the next highs or beyond if you want to.
448
That is a breakdown of extreme zones, confirmation entries, and how to approach supply and demand zones in real markets where things aren't as clean as theory talk.
449
So hopefully that's valuable.
450
Let's move on.
451
Now, something really cool about supply and demand is that this is a fractal theory.
452
Fractal means that the concept works on pretty much any time frame you want to look at, whether you want to look at the weekly, the daily, the four hour, the five minute, the one minute, it's all the same.
453
So let's take a look at some examples.
454
I bet you couldn't guess what timeframe these three different examples are from.
455
Now, obviously they all look very similar.
456
The market follows price action regardless.
457
These are the monthly, the one week and the one hour.
458
No, I'm just kidding.
459
It's the hourly, the four hour and the one minute timeframe.
460
And I do that to show you
461
that really you are never going to guess what timeframe a supply
462
or demand zone is formed on just by looking at it, which is a great thing because it means whether you're day trading, swing trading, position trading, scalping,
463
these concepts will work regardless of the time frame.
464
So don't worry, you don't have to use a specific time frame to use supply and demand.
465
You can use it anywhere.
466
All right, so one big thing that you should bring into your trading is top down analysis,
467
which is pretty much the idea of using multiple different time frames to work out where the market's going to go.
468
You go from the top down in the weekly and daily to build narratives, and you go to the lower timeframes and actually find setups.
469
Supply and demand can be used in this context and it can be used for two things.
470
First of all it can be used to identify target areas.
471
Second of all it can be used to identify where trades are likely to take place from and lead into.
472
So we're taking a look at an example here on EuroCAD.
473
We're on the weekly time frame.
474
As I've shown you with Fractals it doesn't really matter what kind of time frames you're working on
475
but this is a breakdown as to how you can take advantage of the targets
476
and entries and building narratives on the high time frames using supply and demand.
477
Here on the weekly I've just marked out a supply zone, I've just marked out a demand zone.
478
Because the weekly time frame moves so slowly and it covers so much ground, we're not really looking for massive movements on a time frame like this.
479
What we're looking for is generally to find areas the market could lead into as targets and as trade entries.
480
So if we build this picture, supply and demand, we've now got a clear range as maybe the market could go up to here.
481
If it did, and we got confirmation, we could sell down to here.
482
Or maybe the market could go down to here.
483
And if it did, we would then look for opportunity to buy up to here.
484
And these ranges being weekly ranges are actually pretty big.
485
So if we were to look for a sell from here down to here, we're looking at over 130 pips.
486
That's a pretty big range that you can trade through that will give you some very big trades.
487
And then the run from this zone to this zone is actually 400 pips, which again is a very big range that you can find one very large or multiple smaller trades within.
488
Now, if we then run this market forward, obviously it's lower timeframes where you'll actually be doing the analysis,
489
but you're going to see that we actually do build narratives and ideas here because number one, clear and balanced demand.
490
Well, if the market is showing weakness down to this level, selling here would be a good trade to look for.
491
So that's going to be a position that you could profit from.
492
Number two, when the zone is filled, we know the next likely move for it to make is probably going to be a drive to the upside.
493
So you could start looking for buying opportunities from there, given lower timeframe confirmations.
494
Now let's say we get into the point that we're at right now.
495
We've had again, a break of structure where the markets came and created a higher high.
496
We have our standard confirmation pattern looking like this.
497
and now we would say we're looking for a long position.
498
So what do we do?
499
Well on the weekly we would identify an area of demand like
500
so and then on the lower time frames
501
because we've now got this high time frame narrative of pulling back to here
502
and buying we could look for opportunities to sell from where
503
we are throughout the week using lower time frames daily for our
504
and then when we meet this area we could start looking for opportunities to buy.
505
So if you build your high time frame narratives, all you literally need to do is use very simple ranges and very simple supply and demand.
506
And as you can see by how this market is forming right now, it's going to fit into your analysis and going to give you some very, very good trading opportunities.
507
Number one, in the form of sells down into demand zones or buys up into supply zones, as we saw here.
508
But number two, once the range is outfilled and once these demand zones and supply zones are hit, well, then you've got clear entry opportunities because you understand the probability is
509
that that zone will hold and we will likely lead through towards the next area with the next movement in price action.
510
Weekly timeframes and daily timeframes for building narratives of supply and demand, very strong stuff.
511
Super, super simple and very effective as well.
512
You can start to trade range to range using the supply and demand format.
513
It really simplifies your high timeframe analysis and gives you biases to work with inside of each week.
514
So to lead on and elaborate on one of the concepts we just discussed there.
515
This is the idea of using supply and demand not only for entries, but also for targets.
516
We've gone to a completely polarizing opportunity.
517
We are looking at the two-minute time frame to highlight
518
that supply and demand works the same on every single time frame that you look at, okay?
519
For our setup like this, the opposing move is basically going to be this push down, right?
520
Or in the real example here, we're looking inside of here to find areas of supply.
521
Let's take a look from the low then.
522
Well, we have this one, but this has been hit.
523
This is efficient.
524
There is no reason to look at this anymore.
525
As we know, when the market hits a supply zone or demand zone more than once, it becomes essentially useless, which is also good news, by the way, for forecasting the strength of this trade,
526
because the fact we've gotten back into this supply zone again
527
and traded higher than we did previously and closed higher than we even did
528
when we formed the supply zone tells us this is a strong move.
529
So they can actually be used, multiple retests on supply or demand zones to indicate strength against the zone
530
which allows us to get more clarity for trades like this one but obviously
531
that then is going to write off this supply well then
532
there is no imbalanced supply zone here there's a supply zone here
533
but it was filled with this wick okay
534
and then there is an imbalanced supply here this indecision candle before this impulse down
535
so we're going to follow the same rule we're going to mark out the low to the high of
536
that supply zone and what we are going to do as we've done in these previous examples
537
and as I've showed you we're going to cover the high of the wick of the next candle as well.
538
So that's our supply zone.
539
So now yes we could target the overall high but
540
if the market wanted to slow down inside of this supply
541
or if we wanted the simplest and most probable high probability trade
542
that we can get well then we could go with this as our target
543
which would be a one to five risk reward.
544
the idea then being if we get our fill
545
if the market's going to reverse it is very highly likely
546
at this point to at least get to the supply zone before it reverses
547
and of course a supply zone is the highest probable point for a reversal to take place
548
because this is indication that sellers stepped in here before
549
so there is therefore the kind of forecasted potential
550
that sellers could step in here again when they do
551
that what happens the market goes down so if we want the cleanest possible trades, we can actually use supply and demand to identify the highest probable points to get in,
552
but also the highest probable points for sellers to step in against our trade, or the highest probable points for reversals to take place.
553
And then if we simply trade within that range, from demand to supply, as we are here, you know, there is no imbalance supply anywhere here,
554
there is here, so there's very high likelihood of us getting to this point, but there is also a reasonable likelihood that this is where the market reverses.
555
So by understanding this, We have a clean trading range.
556
We can be in at demand, extreme zone, no imbalances left beneath, high probability entry, and we can be out at supply, extreme zone, high probability reversal,
557
high probability exit, no imbalance beneath this, which creates a very high probable range for us to push through, okay?
558
Now, I'm going to run this.
559
You're going to see what happens when the supply is hit.
560
We get a small push through, good sign to begin with, but then we have this pretty dramatic sell-off, okay?
561
Now, obviously, in some cases, the market is going to drill straight through those zones and take you up towards your targets.
562
But in some of these cases, we are going to get these selling movements, and this can lead us back into new bearish moves.
563
So if you target from demand to supply or from supply to demand, you're basically setting yourself up with the most simplified positions that you can possibly take,
564
and you avoid getting killed
565
when the market does stuff like this reverses on your trade
566
after getting very very close to the target you know
567
if you held this trade all the way up here well
568
you're going to miss out on this entire move now
569
because it's all the way back down to entry but
570
if you just focused on demand to supply trading number one
571
it's very simple it's very easy number two you're going to be out of these trades
572
because the market is highly likely to trade from range to range it's only
573
when new ranges are met
574
that significant reversals can take place making this the most simple way to use supply and demand as targets and entries.
575
So that's pretty much everything you need to know about supply and demand.
576
Now, if you want to get results like these and master supply and demand fast, head to the link in the description and join my trading academy.
577
If you don't want to do that, I have a free course called Seven Steps to Profitable Trades, where I'm going to help you to build systems, simplify your trading, improve your trades, and ultimately find success.
578
There is a link to that at the top of the description as well.
579
And if you don't want to do either of those things, watch this masterclass on market structure.
580
This is going to follow on from what we've covered today in supply
581
and demand and help you to become a masterful trader.
582
So thank you for watching.
583
I'll see you in the next video.
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Từ vựng và ghi chú luyện nói cho bài học này
Video này có 583 câu và 8466 từ để luyện shadowing. Phần lời nói dài 40:02. Người nói nói nhanh, khoảng 211 từ mỗi phút, nên sẽ có nhiều chỗ nối âm và nuốt âm. 89% số từ nằm trong 3.000 từ tiếng Anh thông dụng nhất, nên từ vựng dễ theo.
Từ vựng quan trọng trong video
15 từ ít gặp trong video, kèm phiên âm và nghĩa:
- candle /ˈkæn.dəl/ (danh từ) — nến, đèn cầy. A light source consisting of a wick embedded in a solid, flammable substance such as wax, tallow, or paraffin.
- confirmation /ˌkɑn.fəɹˈmeɪ.ʃən/ (danh từ) — sự xác nhận. An official indicator that things will happen as planned.
- probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/ (danh từ) — xác suất, khả năng. The state of being probable.
- narrative /ˈnæɹ.ə.tɪv/ (danh từ) — kể chuyện, tường thuật. The systematic recitation of an event or series of events.
- seller /ˈsɛlɚ/ (danh từ) — người bán. Someone who sells; a vendor; a clerk.
- ignore /ɪɡˈnɔː/ (động từ) — lơ, lờ. To deliberately not listen or pay attention to.
- scenario /sɪˈnɛəɹioʊ/ (danh từ) — trường hợp, kịch bản. An outline or model of an expected or supposed sequence of events.
- discount /ˈdɪskaʊnt/ (danh từ) — bớt giá, sự bớt. A reduction in price.
- reward /ɹɪˈwɔɹd/ (danh từ) — tặng thưởng, thưởng. Something of value given in return for an act.
- decrease /dɪˈkɹiːs/ (động từ) — hạ. Of a quantity, to become smaller.
- confirm /kənˈfɝm/ (động từ) — xác nhận. To strengthen; to make firm or resolute.
- swing /ˈswɪŋ/ (động từ) — đu, đung đưa. To rotate about an off-centre fixed point.
- chart /t͡ʃɑɹt/ (danh từ) — biểu đồ, đồ biểu. A map illustrating the geography of a specific phenomenon.
- format /ˈfɔːɹ.mæt/ (danh từ) — khổ (sách, giấy, bìa). The layout of a publication or document.
- extend /ɛkˈstɛnd/ (động từ) — kéo dài. To increase in extent.
Cụm động từ bạn sẽ nghe
- look for (động từ) — tìm, tìm kiếm. To seek.
- get in (động từ) — lên, xuống. To get into or inside something, literally or figuratively.
Phát âm cần chú ý
Người nói dùng 146 dạng rút gọn, ví dụ we're, you're, we've. Hãy nói theo dạng ngắn đúng như bạn nghe.
- Âm “th”: beneath /bɪˈniːθ/, hypothetical /ˌhaɪpəˈθɛtɪkəl/, furthest /ˈfɜː(ɹ)ðɪst/
- Âm “sh” và “zh”: confirmation /ˌkɑn.fəɹˈmeɪ.ʃən/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, consolidation /kənˌsɑləˈdeɪʃən/, execution /ˌɛk.sɪˈkjuː.ʃən/, differentiate /dɪf.əˈɹɛn.ʃi.eɪt/
- Từ dài — đặt trọng âm cho đúng: confirmation /ˌkɑn.fəɹˈmeɪ.ʃən/, probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, consolidation /kənˌsɑləˈdeɪʃən/, execution /ˌɛk.sɪˈkjuː.ʃən/
Cách luyện với video này
- Nghe hết video một lần, chưa cần nói, và ghi lại những từ bạn chưa biết.
- Bắt đầu ở tốc độ 0,75×, nói đuổi từng câu, rồi quay lại tốc độ bình thường khi đã quen.
- Ghi âm giọng mình rồi so với bản gốc, chú ý các từ như candle, confirmation, probability.
Ngữ pháp trong video
Những cấu trúc người nói dùng nhiều nhất, kèm đúng cụm từ trong video:
| Cấu trúc | Trong video |
|---|---|
| Câu điều kiện if + mệnh đề, will/would + động từ — điều kiện và kết quả | if it did, we would then |
| Thì hiện tại hoàn thành have/has + quá khứ phân từ — việc đã xảy ra nhưng còn liên quan đến hiện tại | have been placed · has entered · has declined |
| Câu bị động be + quá khứ phân từ — nhấn vào việc xảy ra, không phải người làm | are bought · being bought · being sold |
| Mệnh đề quan hệ who / which + mệnh đề — thêm thông tin về người hoặc vật | target, which is · here, which is · trend, which is |
Phương Pháp Shadowing Là Gì?
Shadowing là kỹ thuật học ngôn ngữ có cơ sở khoa học, ban đầu được phát triển cho chương trình đào tạo phiên dịch viên chuyên nghiệp và được phổ biến rộng rãi bởi nhà đa ngôn ngữ học Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Nguyên lý cốt lõi đơn giản nhưng cực kỳ hiệu quả: bạn nghe tiếng Anh của người bản xứ và lặp lại to ngay lập tức — như một "cái bóng" (shadow) đuổi theo người nói với độ trễ chỉ 1–2 giây. Khác với luyện ngữ pháp hay học từ vựng bị động, Shadowing buộc não bộ và cơ miệng phải đồng thời xử lý và tái tạo ngôn ngữ thực tế. Các nghiên cứu khoa học xác nhận phương pháp này cải thiện đáng kể phát âm, ngữ điệu, nhịp điệu, nối âm, kỹ năng nghe và độ lưu loát khi nói — đặc biệt hiệu quả cho người luyện IELTS Speaking và muốn giao tiếp tiếng Anh tự nhiên như người bản ngữ.