跟读练习: El Niño: A global warning | Vietnam Today - 通过YouTube学习英语口语
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As global temperatures continue to rise,
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As global temperatures continue to rise,
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attention is once again turning to a familiar climate driver, El Nino.
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El Nino is a natural climate pattern where sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean rise above average.
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It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.
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During strong events, sea surface temperatures can rise significantly above long-term averages,
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disrupting weather patterns across the globe.
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During El Nino events, trade winds weaken or shift direction,
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allowing warm water to move its world across the Pacific.
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This change can influence weather patterns in many regions around the world.
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And warning from scientists show that climate change is becoming increasingly evident through extreme heat waves,
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droughts and wildfires occurring across many parts of the world.
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As the World Meteorological Organization warns of a possible return of El Nino this year,
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many countries are entering a phase of closer monitoring and preparedness for the rising risk of extreme weather events.
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We warmed the planet by about 1.5 degrees Celsius since the 19th century,
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and that is halfway to the Pliocene.
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And the Pliocene was the period three million years ago.
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India is facing severe heat and water shortages as El Nino drives above-average heatwave days across parts of the country.
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To manage that, we have a range of water tankers,
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which we will use when the need arises.
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We are on alert mode for the rest of the areas.
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Not only in India, countries across the region are also bracing for prolonged heat and drought,
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as El Nino is forecast to strengthen in the coming months.
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In Pakistan, farmers brought their cattle into rivers to cool off amid the scorching heat.
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Because of the heat and to prevent them from fatigue,
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the cows have to be bathed and watered once or twice a day.
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Some areas have already run out of water and only farms with ground water wells can continue operating.
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We are urging farmers not to expend cultivation beyond plant areas.
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And here in Hanoi, even in the morning,
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the heat is still intense.
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The temperature on my phone says it 48 degrees Celsius.
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But honestly, it feels much hotter out here.
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With El Nino expected to return,
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Vietnam also stepping up preparations for more extreme weather To stay prepared,
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we update El Nino forecasts at least once a month using satellite observations
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and climate data from Europe, the U.S and other countries.
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We also provide three to nine month forecasts to help authorities plan for droughts,
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saltwater intrusion and extreme weather.
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As concerns grow over a possible strong El Nino event,
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terms like Mega El Nino,
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Super El Nino, and Godzilla El Nino have appeared increasingly across recent media reports.
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We in WMO don't use the term Super El Nino.
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Our classification goes from weak,
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moderate and strong El Nino, according to the science.
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So what is clear is that the event which is going to happen seems to be an important one.
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Some forecasts for this year suggest temperatures could reach between 2.5 and 3 degrees Celsius above normal.
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The strongest El Nino on record is believed to have occurred in 1877
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when temperatures were above 2.7 degrees Celsius above the average.
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Experts warn it could place growing pressure on the economies and societies across the Asia-Pacific region.
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To better understand these risks,
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we speak with Kharav Rafisura Economic Affairs Officer at the United Nations Economic and Social Commissions for Asia and the Pacific.
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Recently, many media outlets
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and climate forecasts have warned about the possibility of a strong
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el nino in the coming months in your view how could this affect the economies
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and societies across the asia pacific region we know
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that climate the seasonal climate the monsoons are highly sensitive to el nino conditions in asian roughly one third
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or that's about 34 percent of the workforce in asian depends on agriculture so shifts in rainfall as you can imagine,
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can quickly translate into impacts on household incomes,
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food production, and rural livelihoods.
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El Nino shocks don't stay in agriculture.
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It hits growth, livelihoods, and household welfare all at once via food price increase and inflation.
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What we're seeing now is that climate models are broadly converging.
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They all point to a high likelihood of El Nino
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by mid-2026 possibly a strong one but we have to remember
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that at this point the exact intensity is still uncertain we
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will know more in the coming weeks well you mentioned
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that el nino can disrupt rainfall patterns food production livelihoods
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and even dry up inflation across the region for vietnam specifically what impacts could el nino bring So for Vietnam,
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again, history tells us that the biggest concern would be on drought and salinity intrusion,
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particularly in the Mekong Delta,
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which is crucial for rice production and aquaculture.
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But it's not just the Delta.
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In the past El Nino events,
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the central and southern regions of Vietnam have also been hit hard with some of the highest drought risk.
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But again, as I mentioned, history is not destiny.
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Vietnam has a lot of experience dealing with El Niño in the past.
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In the most recent drought events,
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2019 to 2020, the impacts on agriculture have been less severe in Vietnam
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because authorities and farmers took early actions like planting earlier,
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improving irrigation, building embankments and expanding water infrastructure.
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So the risks triggered by El Nino are real,
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but their impacts can also be mitigated with the right actions.
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With the risk of El Nino becoming increasingly clear,
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what should countries in the region do now to prepare better and reduce its impacts?
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So the good news is we have time to act.
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El Niño can be predicted up to six months ahead.
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So first information, governments must actively draw on climate information from their national hydro meteorological services to put contingency plans in place.
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Second is finance.
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Countries need to create this fiscal space to act early,
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not just to respond after the damage is done.
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And finally, institutional coordination.
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Climate impacts cut across sectors and therefore strong coordination across ministries and agencies,
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agriculture, water, energy, finance, and health is critical to make sure
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that actions from policies up to the execution in the field are aligned and timely.
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And finally, my key message is history is not destiny.
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Historical records give us a clear picture of the risk brought about by El Nino and where they will be concentrated,
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who will be the hardest hit.
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But with early and coordinated action,
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we are not doomed to repeat the same outcomes.
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Thank you so much.
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背景与上下文
本视频探讨了当前全球气候变化的重要因素——厄尔尼诺现象。厄尔尼诺是一个自然气候模式，其特征是中东部热带太平洋海面温度异常升高，通常每两到七年发生一次，持续时间约为九到十二个月。随着气温的上升，厄尔尼诺现象对全球天气模式的影响也愈加明显。在视频中，讲者提到了厄尔尼诺可能引发的极端天气情况，以及国家如何应对这些变化，特别是南亚和东南亚地区受到的影响。
日常交流的五个常用短语
- 气候变化 (Climate Change)：用来描述全球气温和天气模式的变化。
- 极端天气 (Extreme Weather)：指极端高温、干旱、洪水等异常天气现象。
- 水资源短缺 (Water Shortage)：形容某些地区因缺水而导致的危机。
- 备战极端气候 (Prepared for Extreme Weather)：强调各国应对天气变化的预备工作。
- 卫星观测 (Satellite Observations)：用于获取有关气候数据的重要工具。
逐步跟读指南
想要提升你的英语口语和听力能力，以下是一套具体的逐步跟读（shadow speak）练习指南。通过看YouTube学英语，你可以有效提高自己的语言水平。
- 选择视频：选择本视频或其他对你感兴趣的气候变化相关视频。
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通过这些练习，你可以在使用英语进行气候讨论时更加自信，并增强自己在真实对话场合中的表达能力。
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。