शैडोइंग अभ्यास: The Most Controversial Problem in Philosophy - वीडियो के साथ अंग्रेजी बोलना सीखें

Do not hit the like button or the dislike button, at least not yet.

I want you to consider a problem that's been one of the most controversial in math

and philosophy over the past 20 years.

There is no consensus answer, so I want you to listen to the problem

and then vote for the answer you prefer using the like and dislike buttons.

Okay?

Here is the setup.

Sleeping Beauty volunteers to be the subject of an experiment.

And before it starts, she's informed of the procedure.

On Sunday night, she will be put to sleep.

And then, a fair coin will be flipped.

If that coin comes up heads, she'll be awakened on Monday and then put back to sleep.

If the coin comes up tails, she will also be awakened on Monday and put back to sleep.

But then she will be awakened on Tuesday as well and then put back to sleep.

Now, each time she gets put back to sleep, she will forget that she was ever awakened.

In the brief period, anytime she's awake, she will be told no information.

But she'll be asked one question.

What do you believe is the probability that the coin came up heads?

So how should she answer?

Feel free to pause the video and answer the question for yourself right now.

This was my reaction after hearing the problem for the first time.

I mean, the intuitive answer that pops into my head is clearly one in three.

It could be the Monday when it came up heads, or it could be the Monday when it came up tails,

or it could be the Tuesday when it came up tails.

But you know what's really interesting is you just answered that the probability of a coin coming up heads is 1 third.

I think a lot of this comes down to what specific question is asked of her.

What is the probability that a fair coin flipped gives heads?

That's 50%.

What is the probability that the coin came up heads?

I would say the answer is 1 third from her perspective.

It's remarkably the same question.

The simple reason why Sleeping Beauty should say the probability of heads is one half is

because she knows the coin is fair.

Nothing changes between when the coin is flipped and when she wakes up, and she knew for a fact that she would be woken up, and she receives no new information when that happens.

Imagine that instead of flipping the coin after she's asleep, the experimenters flip the coin first and ask her immediately.

what's the probability that the coin came up heads?

Well, she would certainly say one half.

So why should anything change after she goes to sleep and wakes up?

This is known as the halfer position.

But there is another way to look at it.

Others would argue that something does change when she's awakened.

I mean, it seems like she gets no new information, there are no calendars, no one tells her anything, and she knew that she would be woken up.

But she actually learns something important.

She learns that she's gone from existing in a reality where there are two possible states,

the coin came up either heads or tails to existing in a reality where there are three possible states, Monday heads, Monday tails, or Tuesday tails,

and therefore she should assign equal probability to each of these three outcomes where heads only occurred in one.

So the probability that the coin came up heads is one third.

This is known as the third-er position.

Now I know it seems wrong to suggest that a fair coin should have a one third probability of coming up heads, but that's because the question she's asked is subtly different.

The implied question is, given you're awake, what's the probability that the coin came up heads?

And that is one third.

Now halfers would counter that just because there are three possible outcomes doesn't mean they are each equally likely.

In the Monty Hall problem, for example, the contestant ultimately has to choose between two doors.

But it'd be wrong to assign them 50-50 odds, the prize is actually twice as likely to be behind one door than the other.

In the sleeping beauty problem, we know a heads outcome and a tails outcome are equally likely, so the chance of waking up on Monday with heads is 50%,

and the chance of waking up on Monday or Tuesday with tails should be 50%.

Therefore, the tails probability gets split across two days, 25% each.

But if you repeat the experiment over and over, which you can try for for yourself by repeatedly flipping a coin, you find she wakes up a third of the time Monday heads,

a third of the time Monday tails, and a third of the time Tuesday tails, not 50, 25, 25, like the previous analysis would suggest.

So if you were Sleeping Beauty and you were awakened and asked what's the probability the coin came up heads, what would you say?

If you would say one third, then hit the like button.

If you would say one half, hit the dislike button.

The answer may seem obvious to you, but you should know that to other people, the other answer seems equally obvious.

And that's why hundreds and hundreds of philosophy papers have been published on this problem over the past 22 years.

There have been many variations of this problem.

Like what if instead of being woken up twice of the coin lands tails, she's instead woken up a million times?

If the coin comes up heads, she's still woken only once.

Doesn't it seem absurd in this case when Sleeping Beauty wakes up to say

that it was just as likely that the coin landed heads as tails?

When we know there are a million more wake-ups in the tails case than in the heads case.

I mean, if you reach into a bag of one white marble and a million black marbles, what are the chances that you pull out that one white marble?

I was pretty convinced by this, and I considered myself a third-er, but this same argument is used to convince people that we're living in a simulation.

The thinking goes that our computing technology has improved so dramatically, even over just the last 40 years,

that we can imagine a time in the not-too-distant future when we can create a completely realistic simulation of our world.

And once that occurs, it should be trivial to make unlimited copies of that simulation.

And then if you were to ask someone if they're living in a simulation, they would have to admit that they probably are, because there are many more instances of that existence than the one true external reality.

But how do we know that this hasn't happened already, and that we're living inside a simulation?

I mean, if it can happen, then it probably has happened, and we are living in a simulation.

This seems like the logical conclusion of the third-er worldview.

Now I personally don't buy that I'm living in a simulation, and I think most people don't buy it, but maybe that's just a logical bias.

But there's another thought experiment that makes me seriously reconsider the third or position.

Let's say there's a soccer game between a really great team like Brazil and a less world-dominating team like Canada.

So the odds are 80-20 in Brazil's favor.

Now a researcher is going to put you to sleep before the game starts.

And if Brazil wins, they'll wake you up one time.

But if Canada wins, they'll wake you up 30 times in a row.

And just like Sleeping Beauty, you won't remember if you've been woken before.

Okay, so the game is about to start.

You fall asleep.

And now you're woken up.

Who do you think won the game?

The third-er would say Canada.

But I would almost certainly say Brazil.

I mean, why should I give any weight to what the researcher would have done if Canada had won

when I'm fairly confident that they won't?

To extend this, let's say Brazil plays Canada five times and we do this experiment each time.

Well then if you say Brazil each time you're woken up, you'll probably be right about four out of five of the games.

But if you said Canada every time, you would be wrong about those four games, but right 30 times in a row when you're repeatedly asked about Canada's won victory.

If you stand to win a bet by correctly answering the question, then by all means you should bet on Canada.

100

But if you want to correctly pick the winner of more of the games, well then you should say Brazil.

101

And this is what's at the heart of the dispute between halfers and thirders in the Sleeping Beauty problem.

102

If you want to be right about the outcome of the coin tosses, well, you should say the probability of heads is a half.

103

But if you want to answer more questionings correctly, well, then you should say one third.

104

I want to leave you with one last thought experiment.

105

Imagine that you know for a fact that before our universe began, there was a coin flip, and if it came up heads, only a single universe would be created.

106

But if it came up tails, a quasi-infinite multiverse would be created.

107

And in each of those multiverse universes, you'd find every possible variation of Earth and the people on it.

108

In some versions, there would be no Earth.

109

Now, you becoming conscious is just like Sleeping Beauty waking up.

110

There's no way to tell if you're in that single universe or in one of the multiverse universes, but you know there are a lot more of them.

111

So would you think that you're for sure in the multiverse?

112

Or are the chances 50-50?

113

The best way to develop intuition about probability is by working through scenarios or running simulations like we did for Sleeping Beauty.

114

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115

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So if you wanna get started with Brilliant's annual premium subscription, they're giving 20% off to the first 200 people to sign up via my link, brilliant.org slash Veritasium.

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I will put that down in the description.

128

So I wanna thank Brilliant for supporting Veritasium, and I wanna thank you for watching.

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इस पाठ की शब्दावली और बोलने के सुझाव

यह C1 स्तर का स्पीकिंग पाठ वीडियो “The Most Controversial Problem in Philosophy” पर आधारित है। सबसे ज़्यादा दोहराए गए शब्द ये हैं: coin, probability, tails, simulation, Monday। इस वीडियो में शैडोइंग के लिए 128 वाक्य और 1895 शब्द हैं। बोला गया हिस्सा 10:18 लंबा है। वक्ता तेज़ बोलता है, लगभग 184 शब्द प्रति मिनट, इसलिए जुड़ी हुई और कमज़ोर ध्वनियाँ ज़्यादा मिलेंगी। 84% शब्द अंग्रेज़ी के 3,000 सबसे आम शब्दों में से हैं; बाकी शब्द अभ्यास से पहले देख लेना अच्छा रहेगा। इसके 128 वाक्यों में से 20 प्रश्न हैं, इसलिए यह प्रश्नों के लहजे और छोटे जवाबों के अभ्यास के लिए अच्छा है।

इस वीडियो की मुख्य शब्दावली

वीडियो के 14 सबसे कठिन शब्द, उच्चारण और अर्थ के साथ:

शब्द	उच्चारण	अर्थ
probability संज्ञा	/ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/	प्रायिकता, संभावना
multiverse संज्ञा	/ˈmʌltəˌvɝs/	महाब्रह्मांड, बहुब्रह्मांड
dislike क्रिया	/dɪsˈlaɪk/	नापसंद करना
marble संज्ञा	/ˈmɑɹ.bəl/	संगमरमर
assign क्रिया	/əˈsaɪn/	निर्दिष्ट, आवंटित करना
researcher संज्ञा	/ˈɹiˌsɝ.t͡ʃɚ/	शोधकर्ता, शोधक
contestant संज्ञा	/kənˈtɛstənt/	प्रतियोगी
sharpen क्रिया	/ˈʃɑɹpən/	पैना करना
worldview संज्ञा		विश्वदृष्टि, विश्व-दृष्टिकोण
intuition संज्ञा	/ˌɪn.tjuːˈɪʃ.ən/	सहजबोध
trivial विशेषण	/ˈtɹɪv.i.əl/	नगण्य, तुच्छ
dominate क्रिया	/ˈdɑ.məˌneɪt/	प्रभुत्व रखना
questioning संज्ञा	/ˈkwɛʃ.tə.nɪŋ/	पूछताछ
subscription संज्ञा	/səbˈskɹɪpʃən/	सदस्यता

वीडियो में आने वाली फ़्रेज़ल वर्ब

शब्द	उच्चारण	अर्थ
wake up क्रिया	/ˌweɪk ˈʌp/	जागना

दोहराने लायक वाक्य

वीडियो के छोटे, पूरे वाक्य जिन्हें आप रोज़ की बातचीत में इस्तेमाल कर सकते हैं:

Who do you think won the game?
Do you want to learn how to build your own simulations?
Are we actually living in a computer simulation or a multiverse?

इस वीडियो का व्याकरण

वक्ता जिन संरचनाओं का सबसे अधिक प्रयोग करता है, वीडियो के असली शब्दों के साथ:

संरचना	वीडियो में
शर्त वाले वाक्य if + उपवाक्य, will/would + क्रिया — शर्त और उसका नतीजा	If that coin comes up heads, she'll be · if Brazil wins, they'll wake · if Canada wins, they'll wake
Passive voice be + past participle — ज़ोर इस पर कि क्या होता है, न कि कौन करता है	will be put · will be flipped · be awakened
Present perfect have/has + past participle — बीता हुआ काम जिसका असर अभी भी है	have been published · have been · has improved

ध्यान देने योग्य उच्चारण

वक्ता 30 बार संक्षिप्त रूपों का प्रयोग करता है, जैसे you're, wanna, doesn't। इन्हें वैसे ही छोटा बोलें जैसा आप सुनते हैं।

“sh” और “zh” की ध्वनियाँ: simulation /ˌsɪm.jəˈleɪ.ʃn̩/, variation /ˌvɛəɹiˈeɪʃn̩/, sharpen /ˈʃɑɹpən/, situational /sɪtjuːˈeɪʃənəl/, intuition /ˌɪn.tjuːˈɪʃ.ən/
लंबे शब्द — बलाघात सही रखें: probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/, experimenter /ɪkˈspɛɹ.ɪ.mɛn.tə/, situational /sɪtjuːˈeɪʃənəl/, intuition /ˌɪn.tjuːˈɪʃ.ən/, intuitive /ɪnˈtjuːɪtɪv/

हिंदी भाषियों के लिए मुश्किल ध्वनियाँ:

/v/ और /w/ का फ़र्क़ — /v/ में ऊपर के दाँत निचले होंठ को छूते हैं, /w/ में होंठ गोल होते हैं: awaken /əˈweɪkən/, multiverse /ˈmʌltəˌvɝs/, variation /ˌvɛəɹiˈeɪʃn̩/, intuitive /ɪnˈtjuːɪtɪv/, trivial /ˈtɹɪv.i.əl/
/z/ — इसे “ज” (/dʒ/) न बनाएँ: energize /ˈɛnəd͡ʒaɪz/, pause /pɔːz/

इस वीडियो से अभ्यास कैसे करें

पहले बिना बोले पूरा वीडियो एक बार सुनें और जो शब्द नहीं आते उन्हें लिख लें।
0.75× गति से शुरू करें, एक-एक वाक्य की शैडोइंग करें, और सहज लगने पर सामान्य गति पर लौटें।
अपनी आवाज़ रिकॉर्ड करें और मूल से तुलना करें, ख़ासकर probability, multiverse, dislike जैसे शब्दों पर ध्यान दें।

शैडोइंग तकनीक क्या है?

शैडोइंग (Shadowing) एक विज्ञान-समर्थित भाषा सीखने की तकनीक है जो मूल रूप से पेशेवर दुभाषिया प्रशिक्षण के लिए विकसित की गई थी। विधि सरल लेकिन शक्तिशाली है: आप मूल अंग्रेज़ी ऑडियो सुनते हैं और तुरंत इसे ज़ोर से दोहराते हैं — जैसे वक्ता की छाया 1-2 सेकंड की देरी से। शोध से पता चलता है कि यह उच्चारण सटीकता, स्वर, लय, जुड़ी हुई ध्वनियाँ, सुनने की समझ और बोलने की प्रवाहशीलता में काफ़ी सुधार करता है।

शैडोइंग तकनीक: पूरी चरण-दर-चरण गाइड पढ़ें →

शैडोइंग अभ्यास: The Most Controversial Problem in Philosophy - वीडियो के साथ अंग्रेजी बोलना सीखें

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इस पाठ की शब्दावली और बोलने के सुझाव

इस वीडियो की मुख्य शब्दावली

वीडियो में आने वाली फ़्रेज़ल वर्ब

दोहराने लायक वाक्य

इस वीडियो का व्याकरण

ध्यान देने योग्य उच्चारण

इस वीडियो से अभ्यास कैसे करें

शैडोइंग तकनीक क्या है?