Pratica di Shadowing: Gold: Dubious Speculation - Impara a parlare inglese con i video
Creazione lezione...
1
Hey, everyone, and thanks for dipping back into the Heavy Metalverse.
2
Today, we're going to talk about gold, dubious speculation.
3
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also be sure to check out the upcoming ITC conference, Investing Through the Cycles conference.
4
Main conference today will be November 21st. We'll also have some talks the night before on the 20th, so make sure you guys check that out.
5
Link is in the description below.
6
So gold is now at $4 ,100, and it's been coming down quite quickly ever since about late August.
7
So I want to talk about, you know, what gold has done in the past from a seasonality perspective.
8
I want to talk about what gold has done under various macro conditions where the yield, the long end of the yield curve is running,
9
and then kind of apply that today and see
10
if we can find anything that makes some some sense okay
11
so the first thing to say is
12
that oftentimes on average gold bottoms in the summer of midterm
13
years on average occasionally it bottoms a little later right
14
and some of the last couple of midterm years are examples of that uh where if you look at say 2022, you can see that it found a low in July.
15
But then it went slightly lower into in sort of the October November timeframe.
16
And then if you look at 2018, you'll see that gold basically went down into mid August, that's where it found a low.
17
And then the low that occurred in October was in fact a higher low.
18
Right?
19
So there's slight differences between how it plays out, right?
20
It doesn't always play out the exact same way.
21
And, you know, you can see in 2014, the low occurred in the midterm year closer to around like late October, which was a slightly lower,
22
it was a lower low compared to where it had been previously in the summer, right?
23
So you have examples where occasionally it's a lower low, and then occasionally it's a higher low.
24
But in all prior, or sorry, in the last three midterm years, there was a low in the summer, and then it was either a higher low
25
or a lower low in you know kind of like the October November time frame now one of the things
26
that you should be aware of is
27
that in the last two midterm years for gold one of the reasons arguably it was dropping at
28
that at that time you see these drops
29
that gold has kind of similar to the drop it's having now what what was occurring in both of those cases,
30
is that the long end of the yield curve was going up.
31
Now, what you'll find is that in 2018, gold bottomed shortly before the long end of the yield curve topped.
32
You can see that pretty clearly right there, right?
33
It bottomed a few weeks beforehand.
34
In 2022, gold bottomed.
35
It started to bottom like late September and then kind of tested those lows into October.
36
But you can see that it It basically bottomed slightly before the long end of the yield curve topped.
37
So one thing to look for for a high on the long end would just simply be look for strength in gold.
38
Look for gold to stop dropping and go up despite rising yields.
39
We have not seen that yet at the time of this video gold is up slightly
40
but we should be aware that
41
that doesn't mean it can't go a little bit lower you know over the next couple of weeks um
42
and i know people ask is it a is it a
43
higher low is it a lower low all the prior examples
44
if you go through them it's a mixed bag right
45
so it's hard to say with confidence like what it's going to be
46
because it has been you know such a mixed bag over
47
the last um over the last several midterm years now
48
if you look at the year -to -date roi of gold
49
in 2026 compared to 2022 you can see kind of where how it bottomed around the same time in 2022
50
and then it had a rally
51
and then it came back down into the same area
52
that it's coming back down into now right like this is
53
there was some strength this time the strength was a little
54
bit more pronounced just like it was earlier in the year
55
and then it's coming back down kind of in
56
that same time frame and then
57
if you look at it compared to say 2014 you'll see
58
something kind of similar right like gold was still weak into
59
into early november um after sort of an early top a
60
high at the in the early part of the year
61
and then it sort of faded down i've also compared to other you know times throughout history right
62
and one of the analogs that I had pointed to in prior videos was the one from 1974, you know, where gold sort of rallied up in the early part of the year, found a low in the summer,
63
bounced, and then came back down into the October timeframe.
64
That was a higher low.
65
But again, for every higher low, you can find an example of a lower low.
66
But what you will find is that in a lot of these cases, if you look at the year -to -date ROI of the 10 -year, right?
67
Now, remember, in 2022 and in 2018, the 10 -year was going up right around the same time as it is now.
68
And then gold bottomed right before the 10 -year topped.
69
Okay, so gold bottomed before the 10 -year topped in those cases.
70
And so what's interesting is that it feels like the 10 year right now is absolutely going parabolic.
71
And, you know, that's certainly weighing some on on the markets, right?
72
Like, I mean, it has been for a little bit.
73
I mean, that surprisingly, the S &P has actually been holding up fairly well so far.
74
So but regardless, it hasn't been going up.
75
And arguably, the reason it hasn't been going up, despite, you know, earnings being relatively okay, and the AI trade still working is because the long end of the yield curve has has been struggling.
76
And what happened while the 10 -year right now looks parabolic, if you normalize the 10 -year for the last two,
77
or sorry, for the last two midterm years, what you'll see is if you look at it in 2026, it looks pretty parabolic.
78
But if you look at it in 2018, it was basically doing the same thing.
79
In fact, normalized from the yearly open,
80
the 10 -year yield has essentially moved up the same amount as it had in 2018 at this time.
81
You see?
82
Essentially the same amount.
83
And if you look at 2022, it was even more pronounced than it is today.
84
But what's interesting is that you can see that the 10 -year yield in 2022 and 2018 topped between,
85
let's call it October, you know, it was either October, November, sometime in the October to November timeframe is when the 10 -year yield topped.
86
And that also corresponds to around the time that gold bottomed, right?
87
Gold bottomed slightly before the 10 -year yield topped.
88
And risk assets didn't get the memo until after the 10 -year yield topped.
89
Now, that doesn't mean that it's going to play out that way this time.
90
This time, we have the technology, right?
91
The AI, the change in productivity.
92
And we have seen the stock market remain resilient so far.
93
Historically, corrections in the stock market and midterm years start around August or September.
94
And then they can go for a month or two, sometimes three, if you're looking at 2018.
95
But that is not a guarantee that it has to happen again.
96
I mean, we've looked at these three midterm years, 2014, 2018, and 2022.
97
But there are times like 2010, where the stock market went up,
98
into the end of the year right so it's not a perfect science but what it does go to show
99
if you think about it from like a narrative perspective what's playing out well as the long end goes up
100
so as the long end goes up gold immediately does not like
101
that right it reacts very quickly to that
102
and gold goes down as the long end goes higher
103
and you can see that pretty clearly time and time again
104
that gold does not really like it especially in the back
105
half of midterm years gold does not really like it
106
when the long end is going up and you can see
107
that this is the third time in a row
108
that this is in fact happened gold does start to like it
109
when it sniffs out the 10 -year yield topping okay
110
and it's hard to know exactly
111
when the 10 year yield is going to top right i mean right now it's at around 5 .2 percent
112
and when you look you know
113
when you look at the 10 year yield let's look at
114
a little bit closer it's been going up basically every single
115
week you know i mean this is what eight weeks in a row now where it's moved higher
116
or it's just been green right like it just continues to sort of slowly move up so
117
it's hard calling like it's hard knowing exactly where the 10 year is going to top
118
if i had to guess i would say a local top will likely be around five
119
and a half percent plus or minus right like i don't know exactly
120
but i would say that would seem about right
121
and for the 30 year i was sort of suggesting perhaps around six percent uh plus
122
or minus i don't know exactly how high it's gonna go
123
but that's what i would look towards like look for the
124
long end topping in order to get an idea of
125
when gold might bottom
126
and you should actually see gold based on history you should
127
actually see gold show some strength before the long end tops
128
and so what's interesting is you know if you look If you look at when the stock market was dropping this year,
129
you might assume that it was dropping when the long end was going up, but it actually wasn't, right?
130
The major sort of weaker times for the stock market, if you look at, say,
131
February, March, 2026, like when it was going down, that was actually corresponding to the 10 -year yield going down.
132
And then the next drop we had, this was back in like May, June, the stock market dropped like what,
133
10%, not even 10%, but it corresponded to the 10 -year yield going down.
134
So what essentially happens is the 10 -year yield goes up,
135
the dollar goes up, and gold goes down.
136
because gold does not like rising yields
137
and a rising dollar does not like it
138
but then at some point gold sniffs out that yields are topping
139
and then gold starts to go back up and
140
when yields top historically right there's two ways to reconcile it
141
when yields top risk assets might like it
142
if it's for the right reason if yields are topping
143
because there's a growth scare then risk assets can go down even with rising yields
144
but it it varies depending on like what regime you're in
145
in 2023 stocks were dropping here as the as yields were going up
146
but that is that is sort of one regime
147
but there are times like in 2026 where
148
and in say like 2018 where stocks only started to drop after the long end topped
149
and it was because sort of these two lows here the sort of the the q1 low
150
and the uh and the summer low they occurred
151
when the 10 -year yield was dropping right for the S &P more
152
or less like plus or minus like a week or two
153
and it was on a growth scare right it was it was more
154
so a growth scare than anything else
155
and the same thing was true in 2025 as well right
156
like stocks were going up as long as the 10 -year was going up
157
but then when the 10 -year was dropping so too were stocks
158
so sometime around you know late 2024 early 2025 the relationship
159
kind of flipped where stocks were generally holding on as long as the 10 -year went up
160
and kind of shrugging off that weakness like the the higher borrowing costs all
161
that it just kind of shrugged it off
162
and it wasn't until the 10 -year topped
163
and there was a growth scare that
164
that caused any type of weakness in the stock market and there are times times where when the 10 -year tops,
165
the initial reaction is for risk assets to go up.
166
But then if they realize that the reason it's topping is because of a growth scare, that's when they can then drop.
167
Now, I want to be clear.
168
I'm not calling for, you know, for the stock market to put in its final top or anything like that.
169
If anything, the stock market has remained incredibly resilient here.
170
Incredibly resilient.
171
And I do think the stock market will eventually go higher,
172
which is why you know i just buy index funds monthly no matter what i think is going to happen
173
because i have to admit to myself
174
that timing the market is essentially nearly impossible especially to do it in a in a way
175
that is repeatable i hope that makes sense so if there is a correction in stocks
176
then i would assume it would just yield a higher low
177
we have the anthropic ipo coming up uh maybe in a
178
little over a month we also have the open ai ipo coming out in likely in 2027
179
so i i think the stock market will still hold on through
180
that sort of stuff
181
that doesn't mean it won't drop in fact around the time of the spacex ipo back in the summer that's
182
when you had that that correction by the by the stock market
183
if you look at just the S &P you know around
184
right around right before the SpaceX IPO the stock market dropped about five percent right it wasn't a lot
185
but it was about about five percent or so
186
and then earlier this year it was about a a ten percent drop so IPOs don't mean
187
that the market can't go down a lot of times it's the anticipation of the IPO
188
that kind of draws money out of the markets
189
because the money then wants to go specifically into this name um
190
so we'll see you know we'll see if that happens again but as it as all this relates to gold
191
what you're seeing right now is not abnormal, right?
192
Like gold typically finds a low in the summer, rallies a little, and then comes back down into Q4.
193
And sometimes it's a higher low, and sometimes it's a lower low.
194
It likely just simply depends on how far the long end is going to rally.
195
And the reason why that is
196
so hard to know with any type of confidence is because
197
because the energy trade who knows what that's going to lead to i mean
198
if you look at oil right if you look at oil
199
and the conflict over in the middle east you know it's
200
really impossible to know how that's ultimately going to resolve i think
201
that you know a lot of people would have assumed
202
that by now it would have been resolved a long long time ago
203
but it just hasn't been resolved
204
and oil is essentially just kind of marching higher right like it's just slowly marching up
205
and if this continues this trajectory then it's only a matter of time before yields you know sniff
206
that out now i will say i spent a little bit
207
of time looking through history there are a lot of times where yields top before oil does
208
and that doesn't mean a new necessarily new high by oil
209
but there are plenty of times where yields will top sooner than than say like the energy trader
210
or the oil markets oil could go higher
211
but then energy could be topping um sooner
212
or yields could be topping sooner what i mean to say
213
so with oil we're still not sure right how this is ultimately going to resolve is i mean
214
if you listen to what the president has said
215
it sounds like he's not going to deal with it until after midterms
216
but we both know that But that can change very quickly, because, you know, it doesn't really like there,
217
there's like one headline one day.
218
And then the next day, it's a completely different headline.
219
And then it's you're kind of stuck not really knowing what to believe, right?
220
Like, is it over?
221
Is not over?
222
And markets generally don't like uncertainty, which is probably the reason why the stock one of the
223
reasons the stock market has at least thought out is because I see a headline every single day.
224
And I'm like, Oh, it's over or it's not over.
225
And then the next day, it's just the opposite.
226
And so who knows, right?
227
Like, who knows what this is going to do.
228
But I have a feeling that this would obviously affect things like yields.
229
But remember, yields are not only going up because of the oil trade.
230
And I think that might be something that the market is kind of assuming is the case.
231
Yields are also going up, arguably, because the Fed funds rate is no longer restrictive
232
if you look at the fed funds rate
233
and then let's let's just look at the fed funds rate
234
and then if you overlay um the two -year yield what you'll see is that the fed funds rate is now very,
235
very far below the two -year yield.
236
And I'm using the two -year yield sort of as a way to approximate the neutral rate.
237
And so as it stands right now, the two -year yield, right, if you look at the two -year yield, it's at around 4 .9%.
238
But the Fed funds rate is only at around 4%.
239
So what that means is that the Fed funds rate is arguably about 90 basis points lower than the neutral rate.
240
And so one reason that the 30 -year yield is going up is arguably just
241
because policy is not really that restrictive right now.
242
And the markets are more so starting to worry about inflation than a recession, right?
243
We've already seen inflation starting to sort of trickle back up.
244
And so that is the reason, that is the big reason why the long end is going up.
245
It's not just because of energy prices, right?
246
Like it's not.
247
And we know that we have to be aware that it's not just energy that is forcing this higher.
248
It's also the fact
249
that the Fed funds rate is too low relative to the neutral rate to actually bring inflation back down to target.
250
If the Fed funds rate were currently sitting at 5%,
251
then the 30 -year yield would likely be dropping or at least staying flat.
252
But it's because the Fed funds rate is
253
so low relative to the approximation here of the neutral rate
254
that's what's causing this uh you know that's that's another reason
255
why the long end of the old curve has just continued to sort of scream higher so
256
i don't know how this conflict in the middle east is going to play out right like
257
and i don't want to pretend to know like i just simply do not know but All right.
258
We do know, as it relates to gold, that gold struggles when yields go up, and it struggles when the dollar goes up,
259
and the dollar is also continuing to go up.
260
And this was the base case, right?
261
The base case that we talked about was that the dollar would go up, and that it would be the dollar going up
262
that would be the short -term bearish thing for gold that would bring it back down into the September -October timeframe.
263
And the same thing happened in 2022 and in 2018, right?
264
Like in 2022, the dollar was also going up.
265
And in 2018, you can see that the dollar was going up.
266
In fact, if you overlay that,
267
if you look at the Dixie in 2026 and compare it to 2018,
268
same spot as it was in 2018 at this time.
269
2022, I think it was a lot higher, right?
270
But still, quantitatively, it was different.
271
But qualitatively, it's the same, right? in the sense
272
that the dollar goes up into the October timeframe might settle out a little bit before the year is over, right?
273
You could start to see it go back down as we get further towards the end of the year.
274
But in the short term, you have a rising dollar, you have a rising long end that's been tough for gold to manage.
275
But in order to in order to figure out when when yields are likely topping, look for a divergence, look for yields to go higher
276
and for gold to actually shows strength and i think
277
that will be the first sign that the long end is starting to top
278
so that's what i'd be looking for
279
and i'd also be looking for gold to to carve out
280
a low uh sometime over the next few weeks right i
281
mean you know this is the window i've said i've said before starting around mid -september is the earliest
282
that you would expect either the higher low
283
or lower low to form starting around mid -September we're there now
284
so I have to be open -minded to that
285
and I would say it could last a little bit longer
286
right I mean it could go into into October um they're
287
easy there's some precedent before for going into even early November
288
but that is around the time when you would expect gold to carve out
289
that low and then to start heading back up
290
and then as gold heads back up that's
291
when yields should be coming back down
292
but those are my views thank you guys for tuning in subscribe give the video a thumbs up
293
and also check out the investing through the cycles conference link
294
is in the description below i'll see you guys next time bye
✨ Video consigliato
C15
413 frasi
A Once in a Lifetime Financial Reset is Coming. (Why Gold is Next)
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
122 frasi
Fed in July: A Weaker Case for Hiking
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
![Intro To TTrades Fractal Model [Indicator & Settings]](https://img.youtube.com/vi/CqMIh-Vvhbg/mqdefault.jpg)
C11
245 frasi
Intro To TTrades Fractal Model [Indicator & Settings]
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C12
235 frasi
Why You Could Be Right About Vietnam Potential But Still Not Making Any Money? - Tony Ngo | EP 02
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
583 frasi
ULTIMATE Supply and Demand Masterclass (Beginner to Pro)
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
235 frasi
Watch CNBC's full interview with Mubadala's CEO Khaldoon Al Mubarak
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B13
13 frasi
September 2, 2026
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
117 frasi
ICT Emini S&P 500 Review / January 03, 2023
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
159 frasi
Untangling Signals of Market Stress
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B21
449 frasi
This Time WAS Different
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B22
6 frasi
Tại sao giờ đây vàng không còn được coi là nơi trú ẩn an toàn - The Economist
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
C13
444 frasi
Here's what's REALLY Happening...
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione
Questo video contiene 294 frasi e 3764 parole da ripetere con lo shadowing. Il parlato dura 23:09. Chi parla ha un ritmo naturale di circa 163 parole al minuto, vicino a una conversazione quotidiana. Il 88% delle parole rientra nelle 3.000 più comuni dell’inglese; conviene studiare le altre prima di iniziare.
Vocaboli chiave di questo video
15 parole del video che vale la pena imparare, con pronuncia e significato:
| Parola | Pronuncia | Significato |
|---|---|---|
| yield verbo | /jiːld/ | restituire |
| curve sostantivo | /kɚv/ | curva |
| compare verbo | /kəmˈpɛɚ/ | paragonare |
| essentially avverbio | /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/ | in essenza |
| scare verbo | /skɛɚ/ | spaventare, impaurire |
| occur verbo | /əˈkɜː/ | verificarsi |
| rally sostantivo | /ˈɹæli/ | raduno, manifestazione |
| neutral aggettivo | /ˈnuː.tɹəl/ | neutrale |
| asset sostantivo | /ˈæsɛt/ | bene, proprietà |
| resolve verbo | /ɹɪˈzɑlv/ | risolvere, accordarsi |
| occasionally avverbio | /əˈkeɪʒənəli/ | occasionalmente, saltuariamente |
| sometime avverbio | /ˈsʌmˌtaɪm/ | un giorno o l'altro |
| inflation sostantivo | /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/ | inflazione |
| headline sostantivo | /ˈhɛd.laɪn/ | titolo |
| minus | /ˈmaɪ.nəs/ | meno |
I phrasal verb che sentirai
| Parola | Significato |
|---|---|
| go up verbo | salire |
| come back verbo | tornare |
| play out verbo | svolgere |
| check out verbo | investigare |
| come up verbo | venire fuori, emergere |
| figure out verbo | scoprire, rendersi conto |
| go back verbo | tornare |
| go through verbo | attraversare |
Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione
Chi parla usa 50 contrazioni e forme ridotte, come doesn't, don't, you'll. Pronunciale nella forma breve, così come le senti.
- I suoni “th”: thumb /ˈθʌm/, anthropic /ænˈθɹɒp.ɪk/
- I suoni “sh” e “zh”: essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, occasionally /əˈkeɪʒənəli/, inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, regime /ɹəˈʒiːm/, correction /kəˈɹɛkʃən/
- Parole lunghe — attenzione all’accento: essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, occasionally /əˈkeɪʒənəli/, incredibly /ɪŋˈkɹɛdɪbli/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/, necessarily /ˌnɛs.əˈsɛɹ.ə.li/
Come esercitarsi con questo video
- Ascolta tutto il video una volta senza parlare e annota le parole che non conosci.
- Inizia a velocità 0,75×, fai shadowing frase per frase e torna alla velocità normale quando diventa facile.
- Registrati e confronta con l’originale, facendo attenzione a parole come yield, curve, compare.
La grammatica di questo video
Le strutture che chi parla usa di più, con le parole esatte del video:
| Struttura | Nel video |
|---|---|
| Frasi condizionali if + frase, will/would + verbo — una condizione e il suo risultato | if you look at 2018, you'll see · if i had to guess i would say |
| Present perfect continuous have/has been + -ing — un’azione iniziata prima e ancora in corso | has actually been holding · hasn't been going |
| Present perfect have/has + participio passato — un’azione passata che conta ancora adesso | has done · have not seen · has been |
| Forma passiva be + participio passato — conta ciò che accade, non chi lo fa | have been resolved · been resolved |
Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?
Shadowing è una tecnica di apprendimento delle lingue supportata da studi scientifici, originariamente sviluppata per la formazione dei traduttori professionisti e resa popolare dal poliglotta Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Il metodo è semplice ma potente: ascolti un audio in inglese di madrelingua e lo ripeti immediatamente ad alta voce — come un'ombra che segue il parlante con un ritardo di solo 1–2 secondi. A differenza dell'ascolto passivo o degli esercizi di grammatica, lo shadowing costringe il tuo cervello e i muscoli della bocca a elaborare e riprodurre simultaneamente i modelli di discorso reale. La ricerca dimostra che migliora significativamente la precisione della pronuncia, l'intonazione, il ritmo, il discorso connesso, la comprensione dell'ascolto e la fluidità del parlato — rendendolo uno dei metodi più efficaci per la preparazione alla prova di speaking dell'IELTS e per la comunicazione reale in inglese.