Pratica di Shadowing: This Time WAS Different - Impara a parlare inglese con i video

Welcome back to my 10 favorite people.

Hope you're doing well.

I'm incredibly excited for today's video because the shallow bear market base case continues to play out.

It is now officially October and the four -year cycle called for new lows

and a market cycle bottom this month if that old pattern were to continue.

Yet here we are and all the bears can really hope for now, now that Bitcoin is in the 80 ,000s, is for a higher low here in Q4.

And this year was another great reminder why preparing for multiple outcomes

and remaining open -minded remains the best way to navigate markets, which is why I have that statement highlighted on our Bitcoin scenarios chart.

And it's crazy to think

that it's been just under 11 months since we first accepted this to be a bear market

when Bitcoin broke below that pivotal 50 -week moving average

that it was able to hold for the entirety of the bull market.

And then two months after that in January to enter the new year is

when I first outlined how I expected Bitcoin's path to look like as part of my Bitcoin shallow bear market base case.

It wasn't called that yet.

I creatively called it going lower to compare it to the

normal bear market most people were expecting with a bottom in October around 40k by calling that going way lower.

But after that, I updated the names to make it a bit more clear what I was describing

and decided to call it the shallow bear market base case

where we would expect Bitcoin to bottom in the low 60 ,000s, high 50 ,000s because of the 200 -week moving average being

so close thanks to the non -euphoric top

and the 8 -month consolidation range from 2024 that we expected to act as strong support.

Now of course nobody wanted to hear this

and everybody was ready to hold hands and buy in October at around 40

or 50k Bitcoin which became the very clear consensus view.

So we ended up getting our capitulation into February.

It went lower than I had initially anticipated because

so many people started running for the exits once they realized it was in fact a bear market.

We then got our relief rally into May, which we drew out.

It didn't get as high as we anticipated because the capitulation took us lower.

So the 40 % rally was only able to get us back to the 70 ,000s.

But this is when I really started to believe

and have conviction in the fact that this time was in fact different

because of Bitcoin's price action and the strength

and resilience it was showing at that major support region

and then what do you know two months after

that i published a video called the end game where bitcoin got

that final capitulation we were looking for it got

that low below the previous low it got the sweep of

the low we're looking for now all of this happened earlier

because so many investors were trying to front run the four -year cycle

that so many people were now aware of and then what do you know, Bitcoin ends up having a massive record short liquidation event,

catching most market participants off guard and wrecking people who were expecting that normal bear market base case.

We also now have our closes above the 50 week movie average, which was supposed to be the line in the sand for many investors.

And now all of a sudden, the shallow bear market base case that we've been talking about for the entirety of 2026 doesn't look that crazy after all.

But it's called climbing the wall of worry for a reason.

People did not want to look at the bullish signs here.

They did not want to accept the bullish signs here.

And even now, everybody is finding reasons to be bearish.

Everybody starts calling for new lows every time there's a red candle.

And this is exactly what you'd expect at this phase of the market cycle.

But the truth is Bitcoin bottomed in the most obvious area it would bottom, which was our eight month consolidation range from 2024.

And now it's struggling at the last major resistance level

which is this consolidation range we had before the final massive capitulation

so some chop and volatility should not be that surprising here

and what's really interesting is

that october was supposed to be where bitcoin was supposed to make its final low this cycle

but we also know that october is bitcoin's best month historically hence the nickname optober

so these bitcoin monthly returns are starting to look very interesting because we're entering bitcoin's best month historically,

but we're also coming off of the back of the best Q3 in Bitcoin's history since 2017.

And I mean, you can take a look at this, look at Q3 of 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018.

You have to go all the way back to 2017.

And back then we just had a crazy August up 65 % and September was red,

but we have never seen all three months in Q3 be green.

Now, some people will say, oh, this means October has to be red because there's no way we're going to have four green months in a row, even though we've seen Bitcoin do that plenty of times.

But you could also make the argument that Bitcoin is

so strong right now and everybody is so mispositioned

and praying for a pullback that it really wouldn't surprise me

if Q4 ended up being solid as well with a little bit of volatility and red months sprinkled in.

I mean, talk about hopium and good times.

Look at the Q4 we had in 2017.

Now, I'm definitely not expecting anything near that

because Bitcoin's market cap is significantly higher and it doesn't have the volatility that it used to have back then.

But I do think there's some opportunity for Q4 to surprise to the upside.

We do have to manage risk appropriately, of course.

But anybody who's being very close minded and saying

that Q4 has to be red or anybody who's being stubborn

and saying Q4 has to be green both those people tend to have their conviction tested throughout the quarter

so being open -minded and prepared for both outcomes is the best way to navigate it

but if I had to lean one way I would lean towards October being a green month just

because of its history and how mispositioned the market is but we'll see what happens.

But it's interesting how even though you can have the best Q3 since 2017

and Bitcoin can be in a clear uptrend somehow people manage to get liquidated over and over again on leverage,

$550 million in liquidations on a 2 % pullback in two hours.

And this is what's so interesting about this market.

You can have these very clear bull markets that last three years and these one -year bear markets that create massive opportunity, but somehow people manage to lose money because they're

so in a rush to take advantage of the upside

that they end up losing their position and getting liquidated in most directions.

The people that were very cocky with being short going into that big move in August got wrecked.

And then we're seeing longs and shorts getting wrecked along the way just because people cannot help themselves with leverage, which is ironic because this is the most volatile market in the world.

Yet this is the one people decide to use leverage on.

And now don't get me wrong, I see the comments of people saying they have to use leverage because they don't have a lot of capital.

So leverage is their only way to make big returns.

But gambling with leverage doesn't mean you're going to be making bigger returns if you're right.

It just increases the likelihood that you're going to get liquidated

and not be able to make any money during the bull market.

These consolidations and leverage washouts also do a great job of resetting market sentiment.

We're somehow almost nearly back in neutral on the fear and greed index, which is a great sentiment reset so far.

100

Just a few weeks ago, Bitcoin hitting the 80 ,000s brought on extreme greed in terms of market sentiment, but this is just how effective boring chop

101

and consolidation is at resetting investor expectations and allowing some fear to creep back into the minds of investors.

102

As for our Bitcoin ETFs, no surprise since we had the best Q3 since 2017,

103

we saw $6 .3 billion in ETF inflows as Bitcoin rose nearly 43%.

104

But we know that ETF inflows and outflows tend to come and go in waves.

105

So we saw a bit of outflows, about $90 million now that Bitcoin is seeing some chop and consolidation.

106

And this is exactly what you expect to see after those massive spikes.

107

People get really excited, throw a bunch of money in the market, consolidates, people start to get nervous again, maybe start to sell.

108

And we see this pattern just repeat itself over and over and over again throughout the market cycle.

109

It's never just an easy ride up during bull markets.

110

There's scary narratives, there's violent pullbacks, and there's these big consolidation periods that feel like they take forever and just kill everybody with boredom.

111

And that's why it's so important to just zoom out

112

and have a much broader plan on how you want to navigate the market cycle

113

and have one that doesn't rely on what the narrative is this week

114

or that week or what's price action doing this week or that week.

115

So speaking of zooming out, let's zoom out and take a look at Bitcoin's relationship with its 200 -week moving average.

116

And believe it or not, according to this chart and Bitcoin's historical extensions from the 200 -week moving average with diminishing returns applied, we're still in the cheap region.

117

And this is interesting because many investors feel like they missed the bull market already

118

because they didn't load up at $60 ,000 because they were expecting lower prices.

119

But with Bitcoin being just 25 % above the 200 -week moving average,

120

it's hard to say you missed the bull market if this is really the start of a new cycle.

121

I mean, just for comparison, it would be like saying you missed the bull market back in March of 2023

122

when Bitcoin was about 25 % above the 200 -week moving average.

123

That would have put you at about 32K.

124

Imagine thinking you missed the bull market because Bitcoin was at 32K right before it ran to 126k.

125

Now we do expect diminishing returns.

126

I don't expect Bitcoin to forex from here, but thinking you've missed the bull market

127

and gambling on leverage to make up for it is a

128

great way to make sure you don't make any money this cycle and instead just lose it.

129

And the best thing about this 50 week moving average reclaim is we now have a very clear invalidation level.

130

If Bitcoin is in fact strong, we should not lose the 50 week moving average, just like we did not lose it once we reclaimed it back in 2023.

131

I don't care what the narratives are.

132

I don't care what the most popular channels are saying.

133

If Bitcoin is above the 50 -week moving average and maintaining this uptrend, you have to be a bull if you're being honest.

134

Now, if it loses that level, then we can talk about risk management, we can talk about bond yields, we can talk about Fed hawkishness,

135

and all the bearish narratives that everybody is so attached to that made them miss the bottom.

136

And that's why having that invalidation level is so valuable, because we have a clear -cut option to know

137

when we are wrong on our bullish thesis and manage risk or reduce risk appropriately.

138

But so far, nothing here has been surprising.

139

We had our eight -month consolidation range from 2024

140

and our one -year resistance from 2021 that we expected to act as strong support.

141

What do you know?

142

It did act as strong support.

143

We had our false breakdown in around June, which was the first sign of strength that, hey, wait a minute, maybe this bottom is being formed

144

and maybe everybody who's ready to load up at 40k in October is going to be sidelined.

145

That small false breakdown cascades into a bigger false breakdown

146

which was an even bigger sign that hey perhaps this bottom is being formed

147

and perhaps there really isn't going to be

148

that chance to buy lower later in the year

149

and now here we are in October of 2026

150

and Bitcoin is working on this very massive pivotal false breakdown

151

it will take some time I have to clean this chart

152

up a little bit we did spend some time consolidating before having

153

that false breakdown back in August and was when the FOMO really picked up.

154

Once we reclaim this false breakdown, I don't think there'll be any narratives or excuses for bears anymore.

155

And everybody's going to have to accept the fact that the bull market is back on.

156

We realized the bull market was likely going to be back on soon.

157

Back in June, we took a bigger risk by doing so because the evidence wasn't so clear.

158

But when you have a false breakdown on this massive of a timeframe, maybe Bitcoin consolidates for another month or two who knows

159

but once it gets this break above 90k

160

and those digits starting with 9

161

and 100k start to show up on people's screens it's going to become very hard for anybody who's still bearish

162

and just praying

163

and hoping they're going to get their entry at new lows they're going to have to capitulate

164

and accept that bitcoin is stronger than most people are ready for

165

and it doesn't care as much about all the narratives people

166

have been coming up with over the past few months and

167

that is exactly why monday's free weekly report was called bulls in control.

168

I still see the majority of people talking about bearish narratives and risks, but price action has been telling a very clear story for months now.

169

A lot of people had the 50 -week moving average as their invalidation to stop being bearish, but a lot of people are just moving the goalposts and coming up with new invalidation levels,

170

and that makes it harder and harder to take the right action.

171

And this is why we always talk about using systems

172

and price action to make decisions and manage risk and not rely on narratives, vibes, emotions, or what everybody is talking about at

173

that moment in time and if you'd like access to my entire portfolio across crypto stocks

174

and metals as well as enjoy your os my entire system

175

i plan to use to navigate what i expect to be very volatile markets over the coming years

176

or exclusive market update videos you can check out the market enjoyers program

177

and community we have great discussions on there

178

and module one is available for free on the about page

179

it just goes over why i developed the system what it is

180

and my journey up to this point so you can check

181

that out in the video description if you're interested and

182

that brings us back to bitcoin very simple here you have this major resistance level at 88k

183

which was our breakdown level back in january 2026

184

when everybody really started to accept

185

that this was in fact a bear market no surprise we're

186

seeing consolidation here i expect some red candles i expect some

187

bearish narratives i expect bitcoin to continue to climb the wall

188

of worry until everybody sees a 100k price on bitcoin once again

189

and have to accept the fact that this is in fact a bull market.

190

But in the meantime, we just need to zoom out, sit on our hands, be patient, not get too antsy and try to make up for missed time with a leverage

191

or riskier altcoins or all these other ways people somehow manage to mess up a three year uptrend.

192

I'm already seeing that same pattern once again.

193

But if we just zoom out, take it easy, have our clear invalidation that we can keep an eye on to really know when to manage risk.

194

I mean, our invalidation level is now seven, six percent below price.

195

So it's not like it's, you know, 20, 30 percent below where we are right now if you really are scared.

196

But if we are, in fact, right on this thesis, the upside should be multiples of what our downside risk is.

197

And that's the exact type of asymmetry we look for in markets.

198

And that's why I keep saying buying a 50 week moving

199

average reclaim is a lower risk entry than somebody who had to use underlying price action

200

and the 200 -week moving average to buy mid -bear market before there was any real evidence

201

that Bitcoin was forming a bottom.

202

But of course, the narrative wars continue.

203

One day we're talking about inflation.

204

Inflation is going down and this is going to be good for the market.

205

Inflation is going up and this is going to be bad for the market.

206

We can't forget bond yields, 24 -year high, 25 -year high, 26 -year high.

207

And then we can't forget to throw the labor market in the mix.

208

One week, the labor market is strong.

209

One week, the labor market is weak.

210

And we just keep going back and forth over and over again.

211

And it's not that these things aren't important.

212

Inflation matters.

213

Yields matter.

214

The labor market matters.

215

However, they are not reliable ways to make good investment decisions

216

because the market is forward -looking and the cumulative wisdom of the market is a lot smarter than we are as individuals.

217

Maybe Bitcoin is strong because the market knows how much debasement the Fed

218

and Treasury are going to have to do because of this yields situation

219

and the debt burden the US government is stuck with.

220

So you have all these people looking at bond yields and they're so surprised why Bitcoin isn't crashing while yields are rising.

221

But Bitcoin's entire thesis and Bitcoin's entire use case is as a currency debasement hedge.

222

And guess what the inevitable solution to this debt situation and these rising bond yields is?

223

And if you guessed fiat currency debasement that's what I would have guessed as well

224

and that's why we focus on things like Bitcoin's trading ranges where

225

while everybody is panicking over geopolitics

226

and here comes oil at 200 per barrel we just pointed out the false breakdown

227

and false breakdowns only happen when an asset is bullish

228

because bears had their chance to break price down and they failed

229

and this is something we've seen over

230

and over again we had a false breakdown

231

when the SEC went after Coinbase and Binance and what do you know

232

that was a bottom we had a false breakdown

233

when the grayscale unlocks happened and everybody was sure grayscale unlocks were going to send Bitcoin away lower.

234

But guess what?

235

Wrong.

236

We had a false breakdown when the Japanese yen carry trade implosion was happening.

237

Yes, the Japanese yen carry trade implosion we're still talking about today.

238

We were talking about it in August of 2024.

239

False breakdown, clear sign of strength.

240

And what do you know?

241

Market was wrong, at least in terms of sentiment.

242

Obviously, the market is right in terms of price action.

243

But the consensus view at these moments was it's going lower.

244

This is the stock market crash, Bitcoin crash, pack it up.

245

And then we have another fan favorite, the tariff drama.

246

This was supposed to send the stock market 50 % lower.

247

This was supposed to send Bitcoin to who knows, 40K, 50K, just the price targets just get thrown out there.

248

And we had a false breakdown.

249

And what do you know, new all -time highs, here we come.

250

So every false breakdown in the last bull market led to new all -time highs.

251

I can't forget Silicon Valley Bank here

252

when everybody was expecting the great financial crisis 2 .0 and it sold that bottom or didn't buy that dip, but price action told the accurate story every single time.

253

And guess what?

254

The prevailing narrative at the time was wrong.

255

Same thing here in June of 2026, Bitcoin with a clear sign of strength

256

and a clear false breakdown at macro major support with eight months of consolidation from 2024.

257

And all anybody can talk about is how Bitcoin has to go lower because of inflation, because of oil, and because of the strategy looming debt spiral.

258

But that's not enough.

259

We then have a range breakout, but nobody wants to accept this clear sign of strength

260

because Bitcoin has to go down because the Clarity Act that nobody expected to pass wasn't going to pass.

261

And the Fed rate hike that was 25 basis points that everybody saw coming a mile away was supposed to crash Bitcoin.

262

And yet here we are.

263

And now what's everybody talking about?

264

Bond yields.

265

And this is what gives people that look at price action

266

and charts such a big advantage because charts are just the facts of what people are voting for with their money.

267

If you're just watching the news and going based on narratives, you're going to be buying and selling at the exact wrong time every single time over and over again.

268

And of course, these narratives aren't just on the news.

269

It's all people talk about on social media.

270

And this is what gives us an amazing opportunity to buy

271

when everybody else is expecting a lower and be very well positioned

272

and take advantage of upside because we're just looking at the facts of the matter

273

and not trying to predict how each of the 100 narratives people are talking about are going to impact Bitcoin.

274

And speaking of impacting Bitcoin, the Bitcoin treasury companies are still pretty quiet.

275

I mean, we can barely see anything happening here in October, which isn't surprising.

276

Strategy is still working on bringing STRC back to par so

277

that they can start using that as a flywheel to accumulate Bitcoin if we are, in fact, entering a bull market.

278

If we are entering a bull market, it's only a matter of time before everybody starts calling sailor a genius again.

279

And that's another great indicator just selling every time the media calls Sailor a genius

280

and puts him on the cover of Forbes

281

and calls strategy the infinite money glitch and then buy whenever people are talking about a strategy death spiral.

282

And here come the billions of dollars of Bitcoin being sold and Bitcoin is going to 30k.

283

I mean, you could probably do really well navigating these cycles just by

284

doing the opposite of whatever the mainstream headlines are saying about strategy.

285

But it is nice to see that strategy is starting to buy a bit here again.

286

Bitcoin is above their average cost basis, which is great to see.

287

And the balance sheet is still looking pretty solid.

288

Plenty of cash on the balance sheet.

289

And of course, if we expect Bitcoin to enter a bull market, strategies.

290

balance sheet is going to continue to look solid.

291

And as for MSTR itself, this one has also been very clear cut.

292

I first published this chart back in November of 2024

293

when I labeled it peak FOMO and compared it to 2021 and everybody was talking about this quote unquote infinite money glitch.

294

It was a pretty easy call

295

because it just looked like an absolute textbook blow off top parabola

296

and I just did not see how an MNAV of three could continue.

297

We then got our sell off, our bounce into a lower high and then absolute doom

298

but the first real sign of strength

299

that started to excite me about strategy was the clear signs here

300

that it was working on a false breakdown

301

because it kept hugging the resistance level after the break below our old range low

302

and that was the bear's chance to really send price lower

303

but what do you know bull started stepping in we get

304

our range reclaim then we get a very powerful close above the range mid

305

and now it's consolidating and just chopping up investors.

306

The next target is the range high.

307

Once it gets above there, Bitcoin is probably quite a bit higher as well.

308

And we can start talking about much more optimistic price targets.

309

And that brings us to macro and Bitcoin's relationship with the GLI.

310

The GLI has been going down recently, which could point to a bumpy Q4.

311

But these pullbacks in the GLI have been pretty normal recently.

312

Bitcoin should still be in the clear for October and November.

313

But the most important thing is that the general trend of the GLI continues to head higher.

314

And this is another interesting one because I get dunked on for looking at the GLI quite often on these videos, but the GLI was one of the main things pointing to the fact

315

that 2026 was looking quite different in terms of the liquidity backdrop to previous midterm years.

316

Now, was it enough for us to completely change our thesis?

317

No, we looked at price action and many other variables as well, but it was definitely a useful piece of the puzzle in

318

terms of why 2026 could play out differently than previous years

319

because you had a liquidity rising throughout the year and not tightening like it did in 2022, 2018, and in 2014.

320

And this was, of course, thanks to the US dollar, which pretty much hasn't done anything since about 2025 until today.

321

It is trying to break out here, so we'll see how high the dollar decides to go.

322

It's now testing its 200 -week moving average, and that's what's putting downward pressure on the GLI as of right now.

323

But even so, when you take a look at the dollar zoomed out here

324

on the monthly chart one it's testing its 50 week moving average

325

which tends to act as a resistance and support quite often

326

but even if it did break out here that is still a very different backdrop to what we saw in 2022

327

2018 2014 and 2010

328

because in all those midterm years the dollar clearly trended higher whereas this time it's barely going higher

329

and struggling to head higher here in 2026

330

and the reason why the dollar hasn't been as strong this year as it has in previous midterm years is

331

because the Fed has not been as hawkish on tightening as they have been in previous midterm years.

332

And as of right now, the market is expecting a pause in October, a rate hike in December, another one in March, and then maybe another one in 2027.

333

So we're looking at 325 basis point rate hikes over the next 12 months.

334

And this may sound scary on the surface, but keep in mind, this is what that current projection it looks like

335

and that wouldn't even get us back to where we were in 2024

336

and we know how well risk assets did back then i'm

337

not saying rate hikes are bullish i'm just saying the fed can't be

338

that aggressive in terms of how they approach these rate hikes

339

because of the debt backdrop and the best evidence of how limited the fed is

340

and what they can do is the fact they're still doing qe even though they're quote -unquote hiking rates

341

and fighting inflation here in 2026 which is different from what they did in 2022, 2018, and 2014 when they started to taper down the rate of QE.

342

The only reason they're hiking rates at all and pretending to be hawkish is their preferred measure of inflation.

343

Core PCE is still a bit elevated, but it has stabilized here at 3%,

344

and I don't think they want to crash the entire global financial system because inflation is at 3 % instead of 2%.

345

And a lot of these inflation metrics continue to head in the right direction.

346

Core CPI just made a new low, the lowest level since April of 2021, just here recently.

347

And yes, a lot of that stubbornness in inflation is coming from oil, which is remaining a bit elevated.

348

It's not heading to 200 like many people have been calling for every month for the past six months, but it is not collapsing either.

349

So we'll of course keep an eye on this.

350

But as of right now, it's just a bit elevated in no man's land.

351

But what's really apparent is the growth we're seeing in the economy, thanks to the AI build out with US real GDP coming

352

in at 2 .2 % for Q2 actually just got revised up from 2 .1.

353

And the estimate for Q3 is still quite elevated at 3 .68%.

354

So it isn't that surprising

355

that the Fed needs to hike rates by 25 basis points here

356

and there just to seem like they're trying to fight inflation and calm the economy a little bit.

357

But given this backdrop, I don't expect those rate hikes to have

358

that big of an impact if the Fed is even able to do them at all.

359

Because it wouldn't surprise me

360

if we start to see a bit of weakness in the

361

labor market with the unemployment rate taking up from 4 .1 % to 4 .2 % on this most recent print.

362

So even though inflation is elevated, the weakening labor market is going to start to make it harder for them to be hawkish in terms of monetary policy.

363

But in terms of our other metrics for employment, continuing jobless claims still quite low.

364

Initial jobless claims still quite low as well.

365

So nothing really collapsing as of right now.

366

Nonfarm payrolls is cooling off once again, just giving the Fed another reason why they shouldn't be

367

that hawkish on inflation because the labor market is going to weaken if they do so.

368

And this is perhaps why the S &P 500 has remained bullish for

369

so long thanks to this AI backdrop and just people doubting this bull market over and over again, going all the way back to 2023 when people were calling for a recession.

370

Then they called for it again in 2024.

371

They called for it again in 2026 and 2025.

372

Every year, there's a big narrative of why the market needs to crash

373

and yes markets do crash eventually eventually there will be a crash

374

but the people trying to predict crashes based on narratives have not had much success

375

and the opportunity cost of them being wrong for four years

376

is probably higher than whatever the damage from the pullback

377

or crash is eventually going to be once it happens

378

and again just another reminder why narratives are a terrible way to navigate markets.

379

So as of right now in terms of where the S

380

&P 500 is in relation to its 200 week moving average

381

based on its historic volatility it's in the expensive region I mean, this isn't a fire sale by any means,

382

but it's been consolidating for quite a while as investors have been getting chopped up in both directions.

383

You have the euphoric bulls who are ready for the S &P 500 to double thanks to AI.

384

You have the pessimistic bears who are ready for the S &P 500 to drop 50 % because of AI.

385

And they just argue over and over again while price consolidates sideways and even just made a new high just this week.

386

As for gold and its relationship with its 200 week moving average, it's in the cheap region.

387

So just consolidating going sideways below its 50 -week moving average

388

gold consolidation periods can go on for a very long time

389

and they can be quite frustrating and boring

390

but I still expect gold to head higher due to the

391

fiat debasement tailwind we expect thanks to the debt situation

392

that all these global governments and global center banks find themselves in

393

but the timeline of

394

that is probably going to take longer than most people have the patience for

395

so I'm still bullish gold for the long term

396

but this consolidation can take some time and

397

that brings us to Ethereum to no one's surprise it's doing

398

exactly what Bitcoin's doing consolidating at this major resistance level

399

which was our trading range before the capitulation bottom that ended up happening in February.

400

So it's no surprise we're seeing a correction and some volatility here

401

because when it does inevitably reclaim this range at some point of course alongside whenever Bitcoin does that's really

402

when things can accelerate

403

and we target the range mid then the range high then the all -time high of course monitoring things along the way.

404

And similar to Bitcoin you have this false breakdown at the low, which cascades into a bigger false breakdown and is now trying to cascade into a massive false breakdown,

405

which I believe could give us the strength to head back to all -time highs once it happens.

406

As for ETF inflows, similar story to Bitcoin, just worse.

407

A bit of excitement when the rally happened, but now some outflows as investors are getting nervous once again.

408

But Ethereum Bitcoin is the most important chart.

409

And as of right now, we are retesting the 50 -week moving average, which is exactly what we want to see

410

if this trend higher is going to continue we want to

411

see a bullish retest of the 50 -week moving average

412

so we can start targeting some of these higher prices on Ethereum Bitcoin.

413

But of course, we need Bitcoin to bottom and head higher first so that Ethereum can outperform it.

414

As for the rest of the altcoin market, the altcoin season index is still a bit elevated at 68.

415

So plenty of altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, which isn't surprising given what we just saw on Ethereum Bitcoin.

416

And we are seeing total three continue slowly grind higher as the Russell 2000 cools off.

417

Who knows when these two are going to meet and where this higher low is going to be on the Russell 2000.

418

But as of right now, this is the exact type of false breakdown we want to see on the altcoin market.

419

Clean sign of strength and major chance that the bottom is already in behind us.

420

And that brings us to Solana also at its last major resistance level before having a major false breakdown

421

or reclaim bigger than Ethereum and Bitcoin, to be honest, because this resistance

422

that used to be support goes all the way back to 2023 and even had some influence back in 2021 and 2022.

423

So a reclaim of this pivotal 120 level would mean range mid next and most likely range high next.

424

And if we get there, we can start talking about all time highs.

425

But again, we have to take things one week at a time.

426

As for ETF inflows to no one's surprise, similar story to Ethereum and Bitcoin.

427

A lot of excitement when the rally happened.

428

Now just some small outflows

429

and really not much going on as this consolidation is boring a lot of investors

430

but solana bitcoin continues to look great nice false breakdown at the range low into a bigger false breakdown

431

and now just retesting that false breakdown level

432

and unlike its usd pair it already reclaimed the major level on its bitcoin pair showing the strength

433

that we're starting to see from some of these altcoins this time around sound.

434

And I think there's a lot of bullish narratives brewing that could get a lot of investors excited, the biggest of which is probably tokenization.

435

I mean, look at this chart in tokenization growth in terms of the tokenization of equities.

436

This is the exact type of growth we want to be betting on, but these things do take time and we definitely see that in our performance versus our benchmarks.

437

We are still well below our benchmarks of the NASDAQ 100 and S &P 500, but it's only a matter of time before we catch up to them in my opinion

438

and this big drawdown to the downside is what creates the opportunity

439

and space for the catch -up trade if we do in fact enter a bull market.

440

But as we look forward the federal government is still running

441

huge deficits sitting at 1 .965 trillion dollars for the fiscal year of 2026

442

and that trend continues to worsen year after year.

443

Exponential debt growth results in exponential money supply growth as

444

that debt eventually has to get monetized and the fiat currency has to be debased.

445

And that acts as a strong tailwind for valuable risk assets

446

that we price in devaluing fiat currency like the S &P 500 and fixed supply risk assets like Bitcoin.

447

But as always, let me know what you expect.

448

Thank you so much for the support on the recent videos.

449

Thank you so much for watching and I'll talk to you soon.

✨ Video consigliato

189 frasi

Trump Botched Economic Trade War With Canada SO BAD As Canada Preps New PIPELINE As Leverage

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

36 frasi

THREE PREDICTIONS THAT WILL SHAKE THE WORLD

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

190 frasi

He’s always wrong

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

104 frasi

The Recession's Already Here… Open Your Eyes

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

254 frasi

Trump PANICS As US Military RUNS OUT OF MONEY!! | The Kyle Kulinski Show

Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students

Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione

Questo video contiene 449 frasi e 6181 parole da ripetere con lo shadowing. Il parlato dura 31:20. Chi parla va veloce, circa 197 parole al minuto: aspettati suoni legati e ridotti. Il 84% delle parole rientra nelle 3.000 più comuni dell’inglese; conviene studiare le altre prima di iniziare.

Vocaboli chiave di questo video

15 parole del video che vale la pena imparare, con pronuncia e significato:

Parola	Pronuncia	Significato
bitcoin sostantivo	/ˈbɪtˌkɔɪn/	bitcoin
breakdown sostantivo	/ˈbɹeɪkˌdaʊn/	avaria, collasso
narrative sostantivo	/ˈnæɹ.ə.tɪv/	descrizione
inflation sostantivo	/ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/	inflazione
consolidation sostantivo	/kənˌsɑləˈdeɪʃən/	consolidamento, rafforzamento
investor sostantivo	/ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/	investitore, investitrice
chart sostantivo	/t͡ʃɑɹt/	carta, carta nautica
leverage sostantivo	/ˈlɛv.(ə.)ɹɪd͡ʒ/	potenza, leveraggio
yield verbo	/jiːld/	restituire
hike sostantivo	/haɪk/	camminata, passeggiata
navigate verbo	/ˈnæv.ɪ.ɡeɪt/	seguire, dirigere
backdrop sostantivo	/ˈbæk.dɹɑp/	scenario
currency sostantivo	/ˈkʌɹ.ən.si/	valuta
rally sostantivo	/ˈɹæli/	raduno, manifestazione
thesis sostantivo	/ˈθisɪs/	tesi, tema

I phrasal verb che sentirai

Parola	Significato
end up verbo	andare a finire, finire
break out verbo	evadere
come up with verbo	ideare, escogitare
play out verbo	svolgere
check out verbo	investigare
draw out verbo	prolungare
go back verbo	tornare
go up verbo	salire

Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione

Chi parla usa 86 contrazioni e forme ridotte, come we're, don't, they're. Pronunciale nella forma breve, così come le senti.

I suoni “sh” e “zh”: inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, consolidation /kənˌsɑləˈdeɪʃən/, shallow /ˈʃæloʊ/, sheet /ʃit/, treasury /ˈtɹɛʒ.ɚ.i/
Parole lunghe — attenzione all’accento: consolidation /kənˌsɑləˈdeɪʃən/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/, anticipate /ænˈtɪs.ɪ.peɪt/, entirety /ɪnˈtaɪ.əɹ(ə)ti/, incredibly /ɪŋˈkɹɛdɪbli/

Come esercitarsi con questo video

Ascolta tutto il video una volta senza parlare e annota le parole che non conosci.
Inizia a velocità 0,75×, fai shadowing frase per frase e torna alla velocità normale quando diventa facile.
Registrati e confronta con l’originale, facendo attenzione a parole come bitcoin, breakdown, narrative.

La grammatica di questo video

Le strutture che chi parla usa di più, con le parole esatte del video:

Struttura	Nel video
Present perfect continuous have/has been + -ing — un’azione iniziata prima e ancora in corso	we've been talking · has been surprising · have been coming
“Used to” used to + verbo — un’abitudine o uno stato passato che non è più vero	used to have · used to be
Present perfect have/has + participio passato — un’azione passata che conta ancora adesso	have never seen · we've seen · you've missed
Frasi relative who / which + frase — un’informazione in più su una persona o una cosa	markets, which is · people who were · average, which was

Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?

Shadowing è una tecnica di apprendimento delle lingue supportata da studi scientifici, originariamente sviluppata per la formazione dei traduttori professionisti e resa popolare dal poliglotta Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Il metodo è semplice ma potente: ascolti un audio in inglese di madrelingua e lo ripeti immediatamente ad alta voce — come un'ombra che segue il parlante con un ritardo di solo 1–2 secondi. A differenza dell'ascolto passivo o degli esercizi di grammatica, lo shadowing costringe il tuo cervello e i muscoli della bocca a elaborare e riprodurre simultaneamente i modelli di discorso reale. La ricerca dimostra che migliora significativamente la precisione della pronuncia, l'intonazione, il ritmo, il discorso connesso, la comprensione dell'ascolto e la fluidità del parlato — rendendolo uno dei metodi più efficaci per la preparazione alla prova di speaking dell'IELTS e per la comunicazione reale in inglese.

Tecnica dello shadowing: leggi la guida completa passo dopo passo →

Pratica di Shadowing: This Time WAS Different - Impara a parlare inglese con i video

The connection between STRC's crash, Binance, and government Control

pov: you abandoned your channel for 6 months...

Sometimes John Oliver Wants to ‘Burn Everything Down’ | The Interview

Is the AI Boom Just Another Bubble?

How I Built A $100M Podcast

Gold: Dubious Speculation

I lowballed people on Facebook Marketplace 2

Trump Botched Economic Trade War With Canada SO BAD As Canada Preps New PIPELINE As Leverage

THREE PREDICTIONS THAT WILL SHAKE THE WORLD

He’s always wrong

The Recession's Already Here… Open Your Eyes

Trump PANICS As US Military RUNS OUT OF MONEY!! | The Kyle Kulinski Show

Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione

Vocaboli chiave di questo video

I phrasal verb che sentirai

Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione

Come esercitarsi con questo video

La grammatica di questo video

Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?