تدريب Shadowing: This Time WAS Different - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو
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Welcome back to my 10 favorite people.
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Hope you're doing well.
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I'm incredibly excited for today's video because the shallow bear market base case continues to play out.
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It is now officially October and the four -year cycle called for new lows
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and a market cycle bottom this month if that old pattern were to continue.
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Yet here we are and all the bears can really hope for now, now that Bitcoin is in the 80 ,000s, is for a higher low here in Q4.
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And this year was another great reminder why preparing for multiple outcomes
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and remaining open -minded remains the best way to navigate markets, which is why I have that statement highlighted on our Bitcoin scenarios chart.
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And it's crazy to think
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that it's been just under 11 months since we first accepted this to be a bear market
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when Bitcoin broke below that pivotal 50 -week moving average
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that it was able to hold for the entirety of the bull market.
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And then two months after that in January to enter the new year is
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when I first outlined how I expected Bitcoin's path to look like as part of my Bitcoin shallow bear market base case.
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It wasn't called that yet.
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I creatively called it going lower to compare it to the
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normal bear market most people were expecting with a bottom in October around 40k by calling that going way lower.
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But after that, I updated the names to make it a bit more clear what I was describing
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and decided to call it the shallow bear market base case
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where we would expect Bitcoin to bottom in the low 60 ,000s, high 50 ,000s because of the 200 -week moving average being
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so close thanks to the non -euphoric top
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and the 8 -month consolidation range from 2024 that we expected to act as strong support.
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Now of course nobody wanted to hear this
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and everybody was ready to hold hands and buy in October at around 40
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or 50k Bitcoin which became the very clear consensus view.
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So we ended up getting our capitulation into February.
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It went lower than I had initially anticipated because
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so many people started running for the exits once they realized it was in fact a bear market.
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We then got our relief rally into May, which we drew out.
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It didn't get as high as we anticipated because the capitulation took us lower.
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So the 40 % rally was only able to get us back to the 70 ,000s.
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But this is when I really started to believe
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and have conviction in the fact that this time was in fact different
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because of Bitcoin's price action and the strength
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and resilience it was showing at that major support region
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and then what do you know two months after
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that i published a video called the end game where bitcoin got
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that final capitulation we were looking for it got
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that low below the previous low it got the sweep of
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the low we're looking for now all of this happened earlier
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because so many investors were trying to front run the four -year cycle
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that so many people were now aware of and then what do you know, Bitcoin ends up having a massive record short liquidation event,
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catching most market participants off guard and wrecking people who were expecting that normal bear market base case.
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We also now have our closes above the 50 week movie average, which was supposed to be the line in the sand for many investors.
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And now all of a sudden, the shallow bear market base case that we've been talking about for the entirety of 2026 doesn't look that crazy after all.
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But it's called climbing the wall of worry for a reason.
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People did not want to look at the bullish signs here.
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People did not want to look at the bullish signs here.
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They did not want to accept the bullish signs here.
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And even now, everybody is finding reasons to be bearish.
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Everybody starts calling for new lows every time there's a red candle.
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And this is exactly what you'd expect at this phase of the market cycle.
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But the truth is Bitcoin bottomed in the most obvious area it would bottom, which was our eight month consolidation range from 2024.
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And now it's struggling at the last major resistance level
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which is this consolidation range we had before the final massive capitulation
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so some chop and volatility should not be that surprising here
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and what's really interesting is
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that october was supposed to be where bitcoin was supposed to make its final low this cycle
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but we also know that october is bitcoin's best month historically hence the nickname optober
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so these bitcoin monthly returns are starting to look very interesting because we're entering bitcoin's best month historically,
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but we're also coming off of the back of the best Q3 in Bitcoin's history since 2017.
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And I mean, you can take a look at this, look at Q3 of 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018.
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You have to go all the way back to 2017.
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And back then we just had a crazy August up 65 % and September was red,
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but we have never seen all three months in Q3 be green.
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Now, some people will say, oh, this means October has to be red because there's no way we're going to have four green months in a row, even though we've seen Bitcoin do that plenty of times.
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But you could also make the argument that Bitcoin is
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so strong right now and everybody is so mispositioned
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and praying for a pullback that it really wouldn't surprise me
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if Q4 ended up being solid as well with a little bit of volatility and red months sprinkled in.
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I mean, talk about hopium and good times.
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Look at the Q4 we had in 2017.
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Now, I'm definitely not expecting anything near that
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because Bitcoin's market cap is significantly higher and it doesn't have the volatility that it used to have back then.
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But I do think there's some opportunity for Q4 to surprise to the upside.
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We do have to manage risk appropriately, of course.
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But anybody who's being very close minded and saying
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that Q4 has to be red or anybody who's being stubborn
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and saying Q4 has to be green both those people tend to have their conviction tested throughout the quarter
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so being open -minded and prepared for both outcomes is the best way to navigate it
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but if I had to lean one way I would lean towards October being a green month just
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because of its history and how mispositioned the market is but we'll see what happens.
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But it's interesting how even though you can have the best Q3 since 2017
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and Bitcoin can be in a clear uptrend somehow people manage to get liquidated over and over again on leverage,
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$550 million in liquidations on a 2 % pullback in two hours.
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And this is what's so interesting about this market.
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You can have these very clear bull markets that last three years and these one -year bear markets that create massive opportunity, but somehow people manage to lose money because they're
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so in a rush to take advantage of the upside
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that they end up losing their position and getting liquidated in most directions.
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The people that were very cocky with being short going into that big move in August got wrecked.
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And then we're seeing longs and shorts getting wrecked along the way just because people cannot help themselves with leverage, which is ironic because this is the most volatile market in the world.
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Yet this is the one people decide to use leverage on.
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And now don't get me wrong, I see the comments of people saying they have to use leverage because they don't have a lot of capital.
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So leverage is their only way to make big returns.
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But gambling with leverage doesn't mean you're going to be making bigger returns if you're right.
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It just increases the likelihood that you're going to get liquidated
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and not be able to make any money during the bull market.
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These consolidations and leverage washouts also do a great job of resetting market sentiment.
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We're somehow almost nearly back in neutral on the fear and greed index, which is a great sentiment reset so far.
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Just a few weeks ago, Bitcoin hitting the 80 ,000s brought on extreme greed in terms of market sentiment, but this is just how effective boring chop
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and consolidation is at resetting investor expectations and allowing some fear to creep back into the minds of investors.
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As for our Bitcoin ETFs, no surprise since we had the best Q3 since 2017,
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we saw $6 .3 billion in ETF inflows as Bitcoin rose nearly 43%.
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But we know that ETF inflows and outflows tend to come and go in waves.
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So we saw a bit of outflows, about $90 million now that Bitcoin is seeing some chop and consolidation.
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And this is exactly what you expect to see after those massive spikes.
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People get really excited, throw a bunch of money in the market, consolidates, people start to get nervous again, maybe start to sell.
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And we see this pattern just repeat itself over and over and over again throughout the market cycle.
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It's never just an easy ride up during bull markets.
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There's scary narratives, there's violent pullbacks, and there's these big consolidation periods that feel like they take forever and just kill everybody with boredom.
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And that's why it's so important to just zoom out
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and have a much broader plan on how you want to navigate the market cycle
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and have one that doesn't rely on what the narrative is this week
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or that week or what's price action doing this week or that week.
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So speaking of zooming out, let's zoom out and take a look at Bitcoin's relationship with its 200 -week moving average.
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And believe it or not, according to this chart and Bitcoin's historical extensions from the 200 -week moving average with diminishing returns applied, we're still in the cheap region.
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And this is interesting because many investors feel like they missed the bull market already
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because they didn't load up at $60 ,000 because they were expecting lower prices.
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But with Bitcoin being just 25 % above the 200 -week moving average,
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it's hard to say you missed the bull market if this is really the start of a new cycle.
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I mean, just for comparison, it would be like saying you missed the bull market back in March of 2023
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when Bitcoin was about 25 % above the 200 -week moving average.
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That would have put you at about 32K.
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Imagine thinking you missed the bull market because Bitcoin was at 32K right before it ran to 126k.
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Now we do expect diminishing returns.
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I don't expect Bitcoin to forex from here, but thinking you've missed the bull market
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and gambling on leverage to make up for it is a
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great way to make sure you don't make any money this cycle and instead just lose it.
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And the best thing about this 50 week moving average reclaim is we now have a very clear invalidation level.
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If Bitcoin is in fact strong, we should not lose the 50 week moving average, just like we did not lose it once we reclaimed it back in 2023.
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I don't care what the narratives are.
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I don't care what the most popular channels are saying.
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If Bitcoin is above the 50 -week moving average and maintaining this uptrend, you have to be a bull if you're being honest.
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Now, if it loses that level, then we can talk about risk management, we can talk about bond yields, we can talk about Fed hawkishness,
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and all the bearish narratives that everybody is so attached to that made them miss the bottom.
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And that's why having that invalidation level is so valuable, because we have a clear -cut option to know
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when we are wrong on our bullish thesis and manage risk or reduce risk appropriately.
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But so far, nothing here has been surprising.
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We had our eight -month consolidation range from 2024
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and our one -year resistance from 2021 that we expected to act as strong support.
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What do you know?
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It did act as strong support.
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We had our false breakdown in around June, which was the first sign of strength that, hey, wait a minute, maybe this bottom is being formed
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and maybe everybody who's ready to load up at 40k in October is going to be sidelined.
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That small false breakdown cascades into a bigger false breakdown
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which was an even bigger sign that hey perhaps this bottom is being formed
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and perhaps there really isn't going to be
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that chance to buy lower later in the year
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and now here we are in October of 2026
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and Bitcoin is working on this very massive pivotal false breakdown
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it will take some time I have to clean this chart
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up a little bit we did spend some time consolidating before having
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that false breakdown back in August and was when the FOMO really picked up.
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Once we reclaim this false breakdown, I don't think there'll be any narratives or excuses for bears anymore.
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And everybody's going to have to accept the fact that the bull market is back on.
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We realized the bull market was likely going to be back on soon.
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Back in June, we took a bigger risk by doing so because the evidence wasn't so clear.
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But when you have a false breakdown on this massive of a timeframe, maybe Bitcoin consolidates for another month or two who knows
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but once it gets this break above 90k
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and those digits starting with 9
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and 100k start to show up on people's screens it's going to become very hard for anybody who's still bearish
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and just praying
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and hoping they're going to get their entry at new lows they're going to have to capitulate
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and accept that bitcoin is stronger than most people are ready for
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and it doesn't care as much about all the narratives people
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have been coming up with over the past few months and
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that is exactly why monday's free weekly report was called bulls in control.
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I still see the majority of people talking about bearish narratives and risks, but price action has been telling a very clear story for months now.
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A lot of people had the 50 -week moving average as their invalidation to stop being bearish, but a lot of people are just moving the goalposts and coming up with new invalidation levels,
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and that makes it harder and harder to take the right action.
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And this is why we always talk about using systems
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and price action to make decisions and manage risk and not rely on narratives, vibes, emotions, or what everybody is talking about at
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that moment in time and if you'd like access to my entire portfolio across crypto stocks
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and metals as well as enjoy your os my entire system
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i plan to use to navigate what i expect to be very volatile markets over the coming years
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or exclusive market update videos you can check out the market enjoyers program
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and community we have great discussions on there
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and module one is available for free on the about page
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it just goes over why i developed the system what it is
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and my journey up to this point so you can check
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that out in the video description if you're interested and
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that brings us back to bitcoin very simple here you have this major resistance level at 88k
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which was our breakdown level back in january 2026
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when everybody really started to accept
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that this was in fact a bear market no surprise we're
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seeing consolidation here i expect some red candles i expect some
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bearish narratives i expect bitcoin to continue to climb the wall
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of worry until everybody sees a 100k price on bitcoin once again
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and have to accept the fact that this is in fact a bull market.
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But in the meantime, we just need to zoom out, sit on our hands, be patient, not get too antsy and try to make up for missed time with a leverage
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or riskier altcoins or all these other ways people somehow manage to mess up a three year uptrend.
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I'm already seeing that same pattern once again.
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But if we just zoom out, take it easy, have our clear invalidation that we can keep an eye on to really know when to manage risk.
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I mean, our invalidation level is now seven, six percent below price.
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So it's not like it's, you know, 20, 30 percent below where we are right now if you really are scared.
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But if we are, in fact, right on this thesis, the upside should be multiples of what our downside risk is.
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And that's the exact type of asymmetry we look for in markets.
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And that's why I keep saying buying a 50 week moving
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average reclaim is a lower risk entry than somebody who had to use underlying price action
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and the 200 -week moving average to buy mid -bear market before there was any real evidence
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that Bitcoin was forming a bottom.
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But of course, the narrative wars continue.
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One day we're talking about inflation.
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Inflation is going down and this is going to be good for the market.
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Inflation is going up and this is going to be bad for the market.
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We can't forget bond yields, 24 -year high, 25 -year high, 26 -year high.
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And then we can't forget to throw the labor market in the mix.
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One week, the labor market is strong.
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One week, the labor market is weak.
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And we just keep going back and forth over and over again.
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And it's not that these things aren't important.
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Inflation matters.
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Yields matter.
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The labor market matters.
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However, they are not reliable ways to make good investment decisions
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because the market is forward -looking and the cumulative wisdom of the market is a lot smarter than we are as individuals.
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Maybe Bitcoin is strong because the market knows how much debasement the Fed
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and Treasury are going to have to do because of this yields situation
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and the debt burden the US government is stuck with.
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So you have all these people looking at bond yields and they're so surprised why Bitcoin isn't crashing while yields are rising.
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But Bitcoin's entire thesis and Bitcoin's entire use case is as a currency debasement hedge.
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And guess what the inevitable solution to this debt situation and these rising bond yields is?
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And if you guessed fiat currency debasement that's what I would have guessed as well
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and that's why we focus on things like Bitcoin's trading ranges where
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while everybody is panicking over geopolitics
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and here comes oil at 200 per barrel we just pointed out the false breakdown
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and false breakdowns only happen when an asset is bullish
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because bears had their chance to break price down and they failed
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and this is something we've seen over
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and over again we had a false breakdown
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when the SEC went after Coinbase and Binance and what do you know
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that was a bottom we had a false breakdown
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when the grayscale unlocks happened and everybody was sure grayscale unlocks were going to send Bitcoin away lower.
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But guess what?
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Wrong.
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We had a false breakdown when the Japanese yen carry trade implosion was happening.
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Yes, the Japanese yen carry trade implosion we're still talking about today.
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We were talking about it in August of 2024.
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False breakdown, clear sign of strength.
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And what do you know?
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Market was wrong, at least in terms of sentiment.
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Obviously, the market is right in terms of price action.
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But the consensus view at these moments was it's going lower.
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This is the stock market crash, Bitcoin crash, pack it up.
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And then we have another fan favorite, the tariff drama.
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This was supposed to send the stock market 50 % lower.
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This was supposed to send Bitcoin to who knows, 40K, 50K, just the price targets just get thrown out there.
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And we had a false breakdown.
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And what do you know, new all -time highs, here we come.
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So every false breakdown in the last bull market led to new all -time highs.
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I can't forget Silicon Valley Bank here
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when everybody was expecting the great financial crisis 2 .0 and it sold that bottom or didn't buy that dip, but price action told the accurate story every single time.
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And guess what?
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The prevailing narrative at the time was wrong.
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Same thing here in June of 2026, Bitcoin with a clear sign of strength
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and a clear false breakdown at macro major support with eight months of consolidation from 2024.
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And all anybody can talk about is how Bitcoin has to go lower because of inflation, because of oil, and because of the strategy looming debt spiral.
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But that's not enough.
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We then have a range breakout, but nobody wants to accept this clear sign of strength
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because Bitcoin has to go down because the Clarity Act that nobody expected to pass wasn't going to pass.
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And the Fed rate hike that was 25 basis points that everybody saw coming a mile away was supposed to crash Bitcoin.
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And yet here we are.
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And now what's everybody talking about?
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Bond yields.
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And this is what gives people that look at price action
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and charts such a big advantage because charts are just the facts of what people are voting for with their money.
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If you're just watching the news and going based on narratives, you're going to be buying and selling at the exact wrong time every single time over and over again.
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And of course, these narratives aren't just on the news.
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It's all people talk about on social media.
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And this is what gives us an amazing opportunity to buy
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when everybody else is expecting a lower and be very well positioned
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and take advantage of upside because we're just looking at the facts of the matter
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and not trying to predict how each of the 100 narratives people are talking about are going to impact Bitcoin.
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And speaking of impacting Bitcoin, the Bitcoin treasury companies are still pretty quiet.
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I mean, we can barely see anything happening here in October, which isn't surprising.
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Strategy is still working on bringing STRC back to par so
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that they can start using that as a flywheel to accumulate Bitcoin if we are, in fact, entering a bull market.
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If we are entering a bull market, it's only a matter of time before everybody starts calling sailor a genius again.
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And that's another great indicator just selling every time the media calls Sailor a genius
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and puts him on the cover of Forbes
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and calls strategy the infinite money glitch and then buy whenever people are talking about a strategy death spiral.
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And here come the billions of dollars of Bitcoin being sold and Bitcoin is going to 30k.
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I mean, you could probably do really well navigating these cycles just by
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doing the opposite of whatever the mainstream headlines are saying about strategy.
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But it is nice to see that strategy is starting to buy a bit here again.
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Bitcoin is above their average cost basis, which is great to see.
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And the balance sheet is still looking pretty solid.
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Plenty of cash on the balance sheet.
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And of course, if we expect Bitcoin to enter a bull market, strategies.
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balance sheet is going to continue to look solid.
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And as for MSTR itself, this one has also been very clear cut.
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I first published this chart back in November of 2024
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when I labeled it peak FOMO and compared it to 2021 and everybody was talking about this quote unquote infinite money glitch.
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It was a pretty easy call
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because it just looked like an absolute textbook blow off top parabola
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and I just did not see how an MNAV of three could continue.
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We then got our sell off, our bounce into a lower high and then absolute doom
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but the first real sign of strength
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that started to excite me about strategy was the clear signs here
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that it was working on a false breakdown
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because it kept hugging the resistance level after the break below our old range low
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and that was the bear's chance to really send price lower
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but what do you know bull started stepping in we get
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our range reclaim then we get a very powerful close above the range mid
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and now it's consolidating and just chopping up investors.
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The next target is the range high.
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Once it gets above there, Bitcoin is probably quite a bit higher as well.
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And we can start talking about much more optimistic price targets.
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And that brings us to macro and Bitcoin's relationship with the GLI.
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The GLI has been going down recently, which could point to a bumpy Q4.
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But these pullbacks in the GLI have been pretty normal recently.
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Bitcoin should still be in the clear for October and November.
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But the most important thing is that the general trend of the GLI continues to head higher.
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And this is another interesting one because I get dunked on for looking at the GLI quite often on these videos, but the GLI was one of the main things pointing to the fact
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that 2026 was looking quite different in terms of the liquidity backdrop to previous midterm years.
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Now, was it enough for us to completely change our thesis?
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No, we looked at price action and many other variables as well, but it was definitely a useful piece of the puzzle in
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terms of why 2026 could play out differently than previous years
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because you had a liquidity rising throughout the year and not tightening like it did in 2022, 2018, and in 2014.
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And this was, of course, thanks to the US dollar, which pretty much hasn't done anything since about 2025 until today.
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It is trying to break out here, so we'll see how high the dollar decides to go.
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It's now testing its 200 -week moving average, and that's what's putting downward pressure on the GLI as of right now.
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But even so, when you take a look at the dollar zoomed out here
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on the monthly chart one it's testing its 50 week moving average
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which tends to act as a resistance and support quite often
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but even if it did break out here that is still a very different backdrop to what we saw in 2022
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2018 2014 and 2010
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because in all those midterm years the dollar clearly trended higher whereas this time it's barely going higher
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and struggling to head higher here in 2026
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and the reason why the dollar hasn't been as strong this year as it has in previous midterm years is
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because the Fed has not been as hawkish on tightening as they have been in previous midterm years.
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And as of right now, the market is expecting a pause in October, a rate hike in December, another one in March, and then maybe another one in 2027.
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So we're looking at 325 basis point rate hikes over the next 12 months.
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And this may sound scary on the surface, but keep in mind, this is what that current projection it looks like
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and that wouldn't even get us back to where we were in 2024
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and we know how well risk assets did back then i'm
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not saying rate hikes are bullish i'm just saying the fed can't be
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that aggressive in terms of how they approach these rate hikes
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because of the debt backdrop and the best evidence of how limited the fed is
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and what they can do is the fact they're still doing qe even though they're quote -unquote hiking rates
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and fighting inflation here in 2026 which is different from what they did in 2022, 2018, and 2014 when they started to taper down the rate of QE.
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The only reason they're hiking rates at all and pretending to be hawkish is their preferred measure of inflation.
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Core PCE is still a bit elevated, but it has stabilized here at 3%,
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and I don't think they want to crash the entire global financial system because inflation is at 3 % instead of 2%.
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And a lot of these inflation metrics continue to head in the right direction.
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Core CPI just made a new low, the lowest level since April of 2021, just here recently.
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And yes, a lot of that stubbornness in inflation is coming from oil, which is remaining a bit elevated.
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It's not heading to 200 like many people have been calling for every month for the past six months, but it is not collapsing either.
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So we'll of course keep an eye on this.
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But as of right now, it's just a bit elevated in no man's land.
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But what's really apparent is the growth we're seeing in the economy, thanks to the AI build out with US real GDP coming
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in at 2 .2 % for Q2 actually just got revised up from 2 .1.
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And the estimate for Q3 is still quite elevated at 3 .68%.
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So it isn't that surprising
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that the Fed needs to hike rates by 25 basis points here
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and there just to seem like they're trying to fight inflation and calm the economy a little bit.
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But given this backdrop, I don't expect those rate hikes to have
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that big of an impact if the Fed is even able to do them at all.
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Because it wouldn't surprise me
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if we start to see a bit of weakness in the
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labor market with the unemployment rate taking up from 4 .1 % to 4 .2 % on this most recent print.
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So even though inflation is elevated, the weakening labor market is going to start to make it harder for them to be hawkish in terms of monetary policy.
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But in terms of our other metrics for employment, continuing jobless claims still quite low.
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Initial jobless claims still quite low as well.
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So nothing really collapsing as of right now.
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Nonfarm payrolls is cooling off once again, just giving the Fed another reason why they shouldn't be
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that hawkish on inflation because the labor market is going to weaken if they do so.
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And this is perhaps why the S &P 500 has remained bullish for
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so long thanks to this AI backdrop and just people doubting this bull market over and over again, going all the way back to 2023 when people were calling for a recession.
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Then they called for it again in 2024.
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They called for it again in 2026 and 2025.
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Every year, there's a big narrative of why the market needs to crash
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and yes markets do crash eventually eventually there will be a crash
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but the people trying to predict crashes based on narratives have not had much success
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and the opportunity cost of them being wrong for four years
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is probably higher than whatever the damage from the pullback
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or crash is eventually going to be once it happens
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and again just another reminder why narratives are a terrible way to navigate markets.
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So as of right now in terms of where the S
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&P 500 is in relation to its 200 week moving average
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based on its historic volatility it's in the expensive region I mean, this isn't a fire sale by any means,
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but it's been consolidating for quite a while as investors have been getting chopped up in both directions.
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You have the euphoric bulls who are ready for the S &P 500 to double thanks to AI.
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You have the pessimistic bears who are ready for the S &P 500 to drop 50 % because of AI.
385
And they just argue over and over again while price consolidates sideways and even just made a new high just this week.
386
As for gold and its relationship with its 200 week moving average, it's in the cheap region.
387
So just consolidating going sideways below its 50 -week moving average
388
gold consolidation periods can go on for a very long time
389
and they can be quite frustrating and boring
390
but I still expect gold to head higher due to the
391
fiat debasement tailwind we expect thanks to the debt situation
392
that all these global governments and global center banks find themselves in
393
but the timeline of
394
that is probably going to take longer than most people have the patience for
395
so I'm still bullish gold for the long term
396
but this consolidation can take some time and
397
that brings us to Ethereum to no one's surprise it's doing
398
exactly what Bitcoin's doing consolidating at this major resistance level
399
which was our trading range before the capitulation bottom that ended up happening in February.
400
So it's no surprise we're seeing a correction and some volatility here
401
because when it does inevitably reclaim this range at some point of course alongside whenever Bitcoin does that's really
402
when things can accelerate
403
and we target the range mid then the range high then the all -time high of course monitoring things along the way.
404
And similar to Bitcoin you have this false breakdown at the low, which cascades into a bigger false breakdown and is now trying to cascade into a massive false breakdown,
405
which I believe could give us the strength to head back to all -time highs once it happens.
406
As for ETF inflows, similar story to Bitcoin, just worse.
407
A bit of excitement when the rally happened, but now some outflows as investors are getting nervous once again.
408
But Ethereum Bitcoin is the most important chart.
409
And as of right now, we are retesting the 50 -week moving average, which is exactly what we want to see
410
if this trend higher is going to continue we want to
411
see a bullish retest of the 50 -week moving average
412
so we can start targeting some of these higher prices on Ethereum Bitcoin.
413
But of course, we need Bitcoin to bottom and head higher first so that Ethereum can outperform it.
414
As for the rest of the altcoin market, the altcoin season index is still a bit elevated at 68.
415
So plenty of altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, which isn't surprising given what we just saw on Ethereum Bitcoin.
416
And we are seeing total three continue slowly grind higher as the Russell 2000 cools off.
417
Who knows when these two are going to meet and where this higher low is going to be on the Russell 2000.
418
But as of right now, this is the exact type of false breakdown we want to see on the altcoin market.
419
Clean sign of strength and major chance that the bottom is already in behind us.
420
And that brings us to Solana also at its last major resistance level before having a major false breakdown
421
or reclaim bigger than Ethereum and Bitcoin, to be honest, because this resistance
422
that used to be support goes all the way back to 2023 and even had some influence back in 2021 and 2022.
423
So a reclaim of this pivotal 120 level would mean range mid next and most likely range high next.
424
And if we get there, we can start talking about all time highs.
425
But again, we have to take things one week at a time.
426
As for ETF inflows to no one's surprise, similar story to Ethereum and Bitcoin.
427
A lot of excitement when the rally happened.
428
Now just some small outflows
429
and really not much going on as this consolidation is boring a lot of investors
430
but solana bitcoin continues to look great nice false breakdown at the range low into a bigger false breakdown
431
and now just retesting that false breakdown level
432
and unlike its usd pair it already reclaimed the major level on its bitcoin pair showing the strength
433
that we're starting to see from some of these altcoins this time around sound.
434
And I think there's a lot of bullish narratives brewing that could get a lot of investors excited, the biggest of which is probably tokenization.
435
I mean, look at this chart in tokenization growth in terms of the tokenization of equities.
436
This is the exact type of growth we want to be betting on, but these things do take time and we definitely see that in our performance versus our benchmarks.
437
We are still well below our benchmarks of the NASDAQ 100 and S &P 500, but it's only a matter of time before we catch up to them in my opinion
438
and this big drawdown to the downside is what creates the opportunity
439
and space for the catch -up trade if we do in fact enter a bull market.
440
But as we look forward the federal government is still running
441
huge deficits sitting at 1 .965 trillion dollars for the fiscal year of 2026
442
and that trend continues to worsen year after year.
443
Exponential debt growth results in exponential money supply growth as
444
that debt eventually has to get monetized and the fiat currency has to be debased.
445
And that acts as a strong tailwind for valuable risk assets
446
that we price in devaluing fiat currency like the S &P 500 and fixed supply risk assets like Bitcoin.
447
But as always, let me know what you expect.
448
Thank you so much for the support on the recent videos.
449
Thank you so much for watching and I'll talk to you soon.
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المفردات وملاحظات التحدث لهذا الدرس
يحتوي هذا الفيديو على 449 جملة و6181 كلمة للتدرب على الترديد. مدة الكلام 31:20. يتكلم المتحدث بسرعة، نحو 197 كلمة في الدقيقة، لذا ستسمع كثيرًا من وصل الكلمات واختزال الأصوات. 84% من الكلمات ضمن أكثر 3,000 كلمة شيوعًا في الإنجليزية، ويُستحسن مراجعة الباقي قبل البدء.
أهم المفردات في هذا الفيديو
15 كلمة من الفيديو تستحق التعلّم، مع النطق والمعنى:
| الكلمة | النطق | المعنى |
|---|---|---|
| narrative اسم | /ˈnæɹ.ə.tɪv/ | قِصَّة, حِكَايَة |
| inflation اسم | /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/ | تَضَخُّم |
| investor اسم | /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ | مُسْتَثْمِر, مُسْتَثْمِرَة |
| chart اسم | /t͡ʃɑɹt/ | مُخَطَّط بَيَانِيّ, مُخَطَط |
| yield فعل | /jiːld/ | أَجْزَأَ, أَجْزَى |
| currency اسم | /ˈkʌɹ.ən.si/ | عُمْلَة |
| rally اسم | /ˈɹæli/ | تَجَمُّع, مُظَاهَرَة |
| thesis اسم | /ˈθisɪs/ | أُطْرُوحَة |
| shallow صفة | /ˈʃæloʊ/ | ضَحِل |
| sentiment اسم | /ˈsɛn.tɪ.mənt/ | عَاطِفَة |
| upside اسم | /ˈʌpˌsaɪd/ | فَوْق |
| sheet اسم | /ʃit/ | وَرَقَة, وَرَق |
| bore فعل | /boɹ/ | أَمَلَّ |
| pray فعل | /pɹeɪ/ | صَلَّى, دَعَا |
| scary صفة | /ˈskɛə.ɹi/ | مُجَفِّل |
الأفعال المركبة التي ستسمعها
| الكلمة | المعنى |
|---|---|
| go down فعل | نَزَلَ |
| come up with فعل | جَاءَ بِـ, أَتَى بِـ |
| go up فعل | صَعِدَ, يَصْعَدُ |
| pick up فعل | قَطَفَ |
| point out فعل | أَشَارَ |
نطق يحتاج إلى انتباه
يستخدم المتحدث 86 من الصيغ المختصرة، مثل we're, don't, they're. انطقها بصيغتها القصيرة كما تسمعها.
- أصوات “sh” و“zh”: inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, consolidation /kənˌsɑləˈdeɪʃən/, shallow /ˈʃæloʊ/, sheet /ʃit/, treasury /ˈtɹɛʒ.ɚ.i/
- الكلمات الطويلة — انتبه لموضع النبر: consolidation /kənˌsɑləˈdeɪʃən/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/, anticipate /ænˈtɪs.ɪ.peɪt/, entirety /ɪnˈtaɪ.əɹ(ə)ti/, incredibly /ɪŋˈkɹɛdɪbli/
كيف تتدرب بهذا الفيديو
- استمع إلى الفيديو كاملًا مرة واحدة دون أن تتكلم، ودوّن الكلمات التي لا تعرفها.
- ابدأ بسرعة 0.75×، وردّد جملة جملة، ثم عُد إلى السرعة العادية عندما يصبح الأمر سهلًا.
- سجّل صوتك وقارنه بالأصل، مع الانتباه إلى كلمات مثل narrative, inflation, investor.
القواعد في هذا الفيديو
أكثر التراكيب التي يستخدمها المتحدث، مع العبارات نفسها من الفيديو:
| التركيب | في الفيديو |
|---|---|
| المضارع التام المستمر have/has been + -ing — حدث بدأ سابقًا وما زال مستمرًا | we've been talking · has been surprising · have been coming |
| “used to” used to + فعل — عادة أو حالة في الماضي لم تعد قائمة | used to have · used to be |
| المضارع التام have/has + اسم المفعول — حدث ماضٍ ما زال له أثر الآن | have never seen · we've seen · you've missed |
| جمل الوصل who / which + جملة — معلومة إضافية عن شخص أو شيء | markets, which is · people who were · average, which was |
ما هي تقنية التظليل الصوتي؟
التظليل الصوتي (Shadowing) تقنية تعلم لغة مدعومة علمياً، طُورت أصلاً لتدريب المترجمين الفوريين المحترفين. الطريقة بسيطة لكنها قوية: تستمع لصوت إنجليزي أصلي وتكرره فوراً بصوت عالٍ — كظل يتبع المتحدث بتأخير 1-2 ثانية. تُظهر الأبحاث تحسناً كبيراً في دقة النطق والتنغيم والإيقاع وربط الأصوات والاستماع والطلاقة.