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in the likeliest scenario, I'm saying Blorja blish again blanzas and a blend Tucky is real.

So here's the thing guys.

We'll see.

We'll see what's up.

I'm not going to say anything.

Let's just get, let's just get back to the news.

Polling is a problem.

This year says Chaz nutty comb.

Polling is a problem.

Total recall bias.

Our findings suggest this probably causes a two point error favoring

Democrats in your standard generic ballot poll to add insult to injury many posters are using pretty conservative weights

this year a large non -response bias among republicans must occur to counteract those observations otherwise

we are probably on track for a va new jersey 2025

repeat the groups trump made his largest gains with younger

non -white lower income non -college politically disaffected are the most likely to lie to pollsters by saying

they didn't vote for him in 2024 because they're reinforcing their upcoming vote choice.

Guys, I'm going to explain something to you.

Okay.

I know all of the smart posters keep saying like, it's a blue NAMI.

It's a blue NAMI.

They've been, they've been torturing the polls.

They've been weighing for Republicans just outright refusing to pick up any phone calls.

Like it's virtually impossible to find a Republican.

And even then there is a plus eight national environment favoring the Democrats, right?

All I'm saying is this, have you met the Republicans or rather just voters in general?

That's all I'm saying.

If you've been around the country and I've been all around the country and gone to these districts,

gone and seen these races, the voters, all I will say is this, just manage your expectations.

Okay.

Money matters.

Elon Musk personally dumped $450 million or $500 million,

or I don't know, some crazy number right into the midterms alone.

Remember Elon Musk is a singular donor dropped more than $400 million into the midterms alone in numerous races.

Elon Musk, uh, in the presidential cycle had dropped half of that.

So he doubled up his investment.

Now it's really, really, really important to understand something here.

Okay.

These ads that touch on people's worst instincts, these ads that get people agitated,

these ads that, that are comprised of, you know, racial agitation, all the most heinous stuff that we see,

they are unfortunately propped up by garbage media consumption that your grandparents and your parents who are likely

Trump voters or former

Trump voters already are inundated with.

And when you pair those two things together, you might not actually have it reflected adequately in the polling data,

but you could potentially see a lot of these people come out and vote.

I'm just saying, I expect the Democrats to win the majority in the Senate.

I expect the Democrats to win the majority in the Senate.

Michael from PA thinks it's 56.

I think it's likely 52.

I have not made any like firm predictions so far.

I do worry a lot about the Abdul El -Sayed race regardless.

I'm at 52 on the Senate.

Obviously the House goes to the Democrats.

That's a lock.

And I'll give you my most controversial take.

in spite of the latino swing young white men are leaving the republican party

and more importantly latinos are leaving the republican party

i still think the texas rule voters are going to show up

and they're going to put

that piece of shit ken paxton in office i hope

it's not the case i really want james talley to win i really want blags this to happen

but i have been hurt before

and i will not believe it until i see it i hope

i'm wrong i hope i'm wrong i'm telling you guys right

now i just i've seen my fellow man i've traveled around the country

i've seen these voters okay i know what what motivates them

i know what leads them to make decisions they are not operating on the same fucking playing field

and i'm seeing early voter uh participation especially in texas from rural areas

and uh i'm a little bit worried anyway we'll see i need

you to understand something the data says blue nami

so michael from pennsylvania is absolutely correct

when he says 56 he's not wrong he's not only looking at the polls

but he's also analyzing the readily available information by scratching the surface of the polls,

looking at how they're even delivering the results that they're getting right now, and the results that they're getting right now.

are after numerous weights and numerous adjustments like Nebraska, right?

Right now, a new poll came out not looking too good for Dan Osborne in Nebraska, right?

How do we arrive at this number in Nebraska?

Well, you look at it, Nebraska was plus 24 in 2024.

Currently, if you look at electoral, like early vote participation, the environment is plus two for Republicans.

However,

the polling is done off of plus 22 for republicans that's crazy right for all intents

and purposes if you are a hard data guy

if you are engaging in analysis off of just the readily available information no vibes whatsoever

you look at this stuff

and you look at like uh you look at the new york times numbers

you look at all these different polls you realize that they are basically giving

Republicans like a 10 point boost because they simply cannot encounter a single

Republican when they're going all across states like Kansas,

they can't find the sufficient number of Republicans to pick up the phone and answer a pollster.

Johnson, I'm telling you the polls are wrong.

We're going to defy history and we're going to be celebrating big victories.

Okay.

I wouldn't go that far, right?

Like this is in the, in the likeliest scenario, I'm saying Blorja,

Blishigan, Blanzas, and possibly Blaine and, and blow Ohio.

Obviously North Carolina is a lock too.

I do not have a lot of confidence in South Carolina flipping, even though God, the Republican candidate selection is so bad.

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It is so bad that like

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Mike Rogers is one of their heavy hitters this time around.

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You know what I mean?

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Like, think about how devastating the Republican candidate selection is that

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Mike Rogers comes across.

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Mike Rogers comes across as like a, like a better candidate than the rest.

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And that's only because he, he doesn't have, at least as far as I know, sexual deviancies under his, his banner, right?

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He's just like pure, he's old school.

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He's going straight racist, right? he's not he's not gone the distance he's not doing uh

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you know defensive pedophiles as much as many of these other republicans have like ken paxton

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or vivek ramaswamy it's also kind of funny to think the cubans in miami are unironically voting for an administration

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that's been deporting their neighbors like their cuban neighbors

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while simultaneously starving the cubans in cuba which of course uh creates an environment

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that necessitates more migration from cuba more refugees from cuba to miami right

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so they are some of the the biggest like leopards eating

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my face voters of all time bro is this fake news

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then with mike rogers new mike rogers ducks questions over his

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campaign leaders ties to a midland church sex abuse game spoke too soon

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spoke too soon i i want to apologize

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i want to issue a correction earlier uh from from three minutes ago approximately three minutes ago

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i made the wrong i made a wrong statement

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i said as far as i know mike rogers is one of the few republicans

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that does not have like a sex abuse scandal

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that he has a close association with it turns out

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it turns out abc 12 reports rogers has kept a member

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of his campaign senior leadership team who publicly supported a man convicted of sexually abusing children

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you know it's quite difficult folks let's be real

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it's quite difficult for the grand old pedophile party to to not hire people

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that haven't at some point defended pedophilia sexual abuse

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that makes sense yeah pedocon theory is a theory like the

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theory of gravity anyway here's johnson here's michael johnson also

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you know definitely overestimating the republican party's chances like i don't think

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this is what's gonna happen all over the country my friends

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and i'm feeling really good right now i'm telling you the polls are wrong okay

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we're going to defy history

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and we are going to be celebrating big victories on tuesday night

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that's my prediction okay amen it's a spiritual battle yes ma 'am

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we're going to talk

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i spiritual battle yes ma 'am is this the beginning of

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the end for donald trump these upcoming midterm elections won't see trump out of the white house

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but if polls are to be believed the democrats will be very successful

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and that is a threat to trump's power for the first time republicans are finding

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that they have to fight hard in deep red states

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that they never thought they'd need to defend

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and trump's approval ratings aren't looking strong either so i just i don't i don't know how you can

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right now be supportive of what's been going on in Washington.

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So which states are key for Trump to maintain power and how close could it all really get?

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Millions of Americans are going to the polls.

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In some places early voting has been underway for days.

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And that I'm on the ballot because we get a lot more votes.

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Midterm elections are rarely good news for the incumbent in the White House.

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I accept responsibility for not delivering to whatever extent.

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It's my fault we haven't delivered back to the American people what they want on

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that i have to accept

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that responsibility actually i thought we're going to do fine yesterday both parties are bad trust me i hate

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that i mean both parties are bad let's be fucking real okay

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there are uh there are horrible democrats out there i mean they're still better than the republicans

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but they're horrible nevertheless nonetheless and then we're seeing

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that we're seeing some of those individuals right now you know they can't seem to lock in

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and do their

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and play their role for like even

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you know five more days three more days whatever however long it takes just just don't say anything

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if you got nothing positive to say just shut the fuck

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up can't do it can't do it shows what i know

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but i thought we're gonna be fine in the election i'm not recommending for every future president

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that they take a shellacking like they like i did last night.

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In the House of Representatives, all 435 seats are up for grabs.

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The outgoing Congress had 218

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Republicans, one independent who votes with them, 214 Democrats, and two vacancies.

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This gave President Trump's Republicans, led by House Speaker Mike Johnson, a razor -thin majority over the Democrats, led by Hakeem Jeffries.

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It is considered highly likely that the Democrats will gain the four seats

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that they need to take the 218 majority that's required and more besides

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over in the u .s senate there are 100 seats each of the 50 states has two senators

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and they sit for six -year terms 35 seats are up

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for re -election the outgoing senate had a republican majority of 53 against 45 democrats

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and two independents who voted with the democrats the democrats need a net gain of four seats.

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So where will control be decided?

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These are the states that are considered competitive if the polls are to be believed.

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If they want to take control of the Senate, the Democrats need to keep Michigan.

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But Donald Trump won this state in 2024 and the existing

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Senator is retiring.

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The Democrat candidate, Abdul El -Sayed, will become the first

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Muslim member of the US Senate and tensions have been high between him and Trump.

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Whilst Republican Mike Rogers is a backer of President Trump, Butt has criticized his tariffs on the state's neighbor, Canada.

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The Democrats could lose this seat and still mathematically win a majority, but it will be much harder.

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They also have to hold on to the Georgia Senate seat of John Ossoff, who won by a narrow margin.

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He's going to win.

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Last time, Butt is considered a rising star in his party

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and appears to have a healthy lead in the polls

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and to new hampshire a state which is usually democrat but

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that is ironically enough another seat that gets no coverage whatsoever

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but that is probably going to go

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that is going to be a flip i think i am very worried that new hampshire is going to flip republican

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and maine is going to flip democrat i don't think

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so there was only one poll to show to flip i'm worried man

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which has a republican governor

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and to minnesota where the democrats have been battling a fraud scandal

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and the decision by their governor tim waltz part of the problem isn't just

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that chris poppas is like not very popular it's

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that his opposition polls say poppas has a fat lead i hope i hope

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if they can hold on there the democrats have to flip four of these republican held seats

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they're hopeful of winning north carolina where the popular former governor

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roy cooper is pulling well ahead of his opponent michael whatley

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maine is a tradition yeah roy cooper is a lock democrats well ahead of

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when that's have to flip four of these republicans minnesota

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i think minnesota is going to be a win i think minnesota stays i think north carolina stays or not stays

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Cooper is polling well ahead of his opponent, Michael Watley.

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Maine is a traditionally

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Democrat state that has repeatedly returned

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Republican Senator Susan Collins, a moderate who's been willing to break with President Trump at times.

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She's being challenged by Tony Jackson, a former logger who was a late substitute when the previous

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Democratic nominee had to drop out over a sex scandal.

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Now, Republicans are also right about Alaska, where Mary Peltola could be on course to beat incumbent republican dan sullivan he said tony jackson dude he's

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so it's kind of funny that troy jackson is considered so unremarkable

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He, he's considered so unremarkable despite the fact that his race is pivotal, right?

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For, for the Senate majority, because it would be a flip and it's hilarious that, that they're just like

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Tony Jackson, a moderate, literally none of those things are correct.

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His name is Troy Jackson and he's definitely not a moderate.

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He just, people just think he is because he's boring

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so much of this stuff is on vibes he's pro -medicure for all

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he calls out israel's genocide he's in favor of of denying aid to israel like he's not he's not a moderate

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oh they said collins is a moderate not him oh okay i i misunderstood

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but again they got his name wrong not to be confused

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with another dan sullivan on the ballot who republicans say is a spoiler

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the trump administration's department of justice is already preparing a legal

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challenge to the result ohio formerly the seat of jd vance the vice president is considered competitive

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and is another possible gain for the democrats and

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if polls are believed the long -time republican stronghold of texas

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could deliver a major blow again all polling shows currently

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that talafrico is most likely going to do the damn thing

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and create blexus make blexus a reality i want to believe that

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but deep in my bones

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i have a real fear about texas about how texas republicans operate thoughts on gina for governor there's no world

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if if i don't think if talafrico doesn't win against campax

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and gina's winning against uh governor greg abbott i think gina already has a tough battle regardless uh even

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if talafrico wins because greg abbott is uh you know he's a fairly competent demonic entity

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that doesn't have the same level of of uh haters

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and the the same disapproval as as ken paxton ken paxton

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is has i think the highest disapproval in the in in the country out of all the candidates

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that are running other than like donald trump

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i guess also elon is dumping millions tens of millions hundreds of millions of dollars into

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that race too to republican morale polls suggest

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that james tallarico is ahead of his scandal tainted

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but mega supported opponent ken paxton in what is the most

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expensive senate contest race of all time musk's millions though might not be enough to save the day for trump

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and paxton if

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that wasn't bad enough for the president then kansas could return a democratic center for the first time since this man,

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George McGill, who left office in, yes, 1939.

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Polls suggest that the megachurch founder Adam Hamilton could be poised to take this reddest of red states away from the Republicans.

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And that previously unthinkable result has got

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Democrats dreaming of other victories.

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In Iowa, Josh Turek is within a few points of Republican Ashley Hinson

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and the weak polling advantage of Republican Darlene Graham a political

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novice who is running to replace her late brother Lindsey Graham has caused the Republicans to this is another one

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that became an unnecessary contest because of you know the demise of Lindsey Graham

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and then Donald Trump deciding to make Lindsey's stupid sister who

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doesn't know anything who's like very clearly not knowledgeable run in his stead

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but i still don't think south carolina turns throw money at the contest

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and persuade trump to adopt abusive nicknames for her opponent dr annie andrews

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and there are also competitive races for state governors these officers enjoy enormous power

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and those elected can be a thorn in the side of the white house 36 states are up election.

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The parties hold 18 each.

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There are close races, and if the polls are correct,

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the Democrats could end up with a majority of state governors for the first time since 2011.

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So, for Trump, even his millionaire friends

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and fame may not be able to win those seats

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that he so desperately needs to keep control in the House and the Senate.

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And without control

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and influence there this really could be the beginning of the

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end for trump's america a majority by one is a majority by none

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because corporate democrats will volunteer to be the bad guy a

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majority by six would also still yield the same results

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but a majority by one is a majority by none because of john fetterman it's different john fetterman I'll see you then. is possibly a flip.

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Like, I don't consider John Fetterman to be a Democrat.

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Well, our most likely scenario is, but da -da -da -da -da, Democrats' chance to win the U .S.

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House of Representatives up to 92 percent, up to 92 percent that

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Democrats win back the U .S.

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House of Representatives according to an aggregate of models, my aggregate of models.

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Now look, 92 percent is not 100 % that still leaves

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Republicans with an 8 % chance, but chances are Democrats are going to take back the House,

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and more than that, they're going to take back the House with ease because I promised you a specific seat forecast, and here it is.

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In the horseshoe, you can see it.

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There's more blue than red, and so our final projection, our final House forecast is 237 seats for the Dems, 198 seats.

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oh my god it's a bloodbath

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michael from pennsylvania thinks it's like more than that too michael says it's like 250

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so the republicans look this is the most likely forecast

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i'm not saying i'm going to be right on it's going to be very interesting to see after the elections

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we're going to go back we're going to see how close

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that this actually got

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but at this point democrats look like they're not just going to reach 218 seats

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they're going to exceed it with ease of course i know the real reason

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or at least I think I know the real reason that a lot of you have tuned into this,

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and that is you want a Senate forecast.

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And we do have a final

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Senate forecast, but this is obviously exhausting me.

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I've had a very long week, so a little mid -forecast drink for me.

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Oh, my God, it's Coca -Cola.

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I do enjoy a good cream soda, and there we go.

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Okay, so we're going to be projecting out all of the Senate seats,

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all 35 Senate seats, all the states in yellow we're going to fill them on in.

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We're going to fill them on in.

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But before we do so, we have to understand just how hard it is for Democrats, historically speaking, how hard it is for Democrats and why

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Republicans at the beginning of this cycle, we thought were in the catbird seat.

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And this is why.

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Take a look here.

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Senate flips in states that the party lost by at least 10 points in the prior presidential election.

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How many seats did they flip in non -special elections since 2011?

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That is, over the last 15 years, they flipped zero, zero, zero.

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They flipped zero seats.

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And why is that so important?

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Because Democrats need at least two.

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At least they need to flip at least two plus 10

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Trump states in order to win back the United States Senate.

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But here's where it gets really interesting.

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Here's where it gets really interesting.

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Look at this.

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Okay.

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Take a look at these key

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Senate race Dem poll margins at this point where

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Trump won by at least 10 points.

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You actually see a lot of blue on your screen.

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Alaska, plus three.

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It would be interesting to see if the final polls actually end up matching the results, given all the controversies there with the two Dan Sullivans.

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Ohio, Sherrod Brown, seeming to do pretty gosh darn well at this point, leading by three points.

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The Democrat there trying to win back a seat in the Senate.

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Of course, he's a former longtime incumbent.

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Texas, James Tallarico, hoping to become the first

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United States senator from Texas since 1988.

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He's up by three.

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Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932, when Babe Ruth looked to the bleachers and called his shot in the 32

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World Series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.

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And Iowa, you can't get any closer than that.

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The Democrat Josh Turek in the polling up by the smallest, smallest of margins a point.

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Should be noted, all these races are really tight right now, but they do seem to be leaning slightly

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Democratic, slightly Democratic.

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Now, what could possibly cause this?

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Because Trump won in these states by at least 10 points just two years ago.

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Well, my dear friends, it's something that should have

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Republicans nationwide picking up the phone, picking up the phone.

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Hello, hello, what is going on, White House?

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What is going on?

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And here's the deal.

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Trump, despite winning all those states by at least 10 points, is now underwater by double digits in all of them.

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In Texas, he's 13 points underwater.

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Alaska, 15 points underwater.

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Deep down there, I mean, my goodness gracious, you can get in the Pacific Ocean,

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you can't get as far south as Donald Trump is right now.

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How about in Iowa, the cornfields of Iowa?

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He's way underneath those cornfields.

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Look at that.

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16 points underwater.

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Hanses, 16 points underwater.

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And Ohio, he's down there in the Ohio River, my dear friends.

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He's 16 points underwater.

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Woof.

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It's no bueno, not good news.

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Now, here's the thing to keep in mind, though.

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I know a lot of you are wondering about this.

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It's so funny.

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This is literally why I'm assuming that many of the state

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Republicans were just like, please don't show up and then he canceled it

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and then everyone called him a for canceling it

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so he's like i'm going anyway it's hilarious

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that he is the most malleable most easily manipulated person of all time unironically a national security threat

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i'm not even kidding like having the american president have this like this many visible personality flaws

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is truly a national security compromise.

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It is a it is a national security problem.

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And it is really worth this asterisk and this gives hope.

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This gives hopes to Republicans.

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Look at this.

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Okay.

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You all know if you're watching this video that polling has tended to underestimate

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Republicans and that is true especially in Trump one states.

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Look at this.

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The GOP has beat their final

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Senate poll average from 2018 to 2024 by 4 .1 points in the states

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Trump won in the prior election.

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We're looking at the closed states, the states that in the final

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Senate polling average were all within five.

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And that is the case with all, with all of these states.

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I mean, look at this, 3, 3, 3, 3, less than one.

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So when we see that and we see, oh, wow, that 4 .1, all of that is within the historic range in which

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Republicans could potentially win.

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And that's why this map really, to me, tells an important story.

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This is very possible.

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This is possible.

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Your 2026 Senate, if polls underestimate the GOP by force points, right?

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Across the board.

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Look at that.

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You get Michigan.

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Michigan goes red.

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Iowa stays red.

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Texas is red.

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Alaska is red.

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Kansas stays red.

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And you just see that it is quite possible that

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Republicans do, in fact, hold on the United States Senate.

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But that's not the full story.

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Because it's not just about Trump and his unpopularity.

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It is also about how unpopular these.

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When does Vetterman leave government?

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2028. Different Senate candidates are the Republicans in these deeply red states.

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Look at this.

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They're all.

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2028 or before because of a health care complication.

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Double digits underwater.

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Dan Sullivan, Ashley Hinson in Iowa, Roger Marshall in Kansas, John Husted in Ohio, Kemp Axton.

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Kemp Axton, 29 points underwater.

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What the heck is that?

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That makes him by far the most unpopular GOP Senate nominee in Texas this century.

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I will also note that this

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Roger Marshall number, minus 17, I did the math, that also makes

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Roger Marshall, at this late point in the campaign, the most unpopular GOP nominee.

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The reason why I think, like, Roger Marshall is potentially going to lose, and I also think Husted's Cook, too, is because of their disapprovals.

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But the reason why I think

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Ken Paxton survives is because it's Texas

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and it's Ken Paxton there is no real evidence to suggest that james talafrico is going to lose this race

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i just have that little faith in texas

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and uh i think just ken paxton has has survived somehow

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you know it's the good whites bad whites yes

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i think texas is more racially polarized than even kansas's senate in kansas now it goes beyond

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that though right because we're talking about history potentially being made,

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and I know a lot of folks have had a lot of interest in the Texas Senate race, and they'll say, oh yes,

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the polls have underestimated Republicans.

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Here's the deal though.

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James Tallarico's six -point lead is the best that any

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Democratic Senate nominee since 1988, when Lloyd Benson was the last

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Democrat to win a Senate seat, was polling at this late point in the campaign.

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So this is truly historic.

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Beto O 'Rourke was behind at this point back in the 2018 cycle.

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Now, I've been talking about the plus 10

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Trump states, right?

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I've been talking about that.

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But there's also another

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Republican -held Senate seat where we've had an incumbent who has outperformed their polling in the past.

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And I'm, of course, talking about Susan Collins in Maine.

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Susan Collins in Maine.

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Her net popularity, though, in Maine right now is the worst it has been heading into an election this entire century, in the 2000s.

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Look at this.

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he says this entire century

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because she's been around for 150 years pretty much yeah

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this is also um a good sign however unfortunately tryotathon is

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also a known entity in main politics he's the president of

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the senate uh he's been around for a minute right

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and his disapprovals are pretty high too i love tryota having said that it seems to me like

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People in Maine, which, by the way, Ms. Rachel is from, she also endorsed Troy Jackson.

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People in Maine have mixed reviews about Mr. Troy Jackson.

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Twelve points underwater.

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So, yes, Susan Collins has outperformed her polling in the past, but she has never been as unpopular as she is right now.

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And this is what we're seeing across the map.

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We're seeing historic anomalies, not just that

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Trump is unpopular, but these anecdotal

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but texas conservatives do not care about corruption they only care about lower property tax

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and small business no for sure i know that also they're fucking insanely racist are historically unpopular so

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What is, in fact, the most likely Senate scenario?

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Well, I can tell you that the chance of it has gone way up.

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It has gone way up from where we were when we made our first forecast back on August the 13th.

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Look at this.

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Up 19 points, nearly up 20 points.

459

I guess 19 would be one, a four, and a five.

460

Up 19 points according to my aggregation of models.

461

Breaking unearthed footage shows

462

Ken Paxson's son glorifying religious violence against

463

Jews and Muslims.

464

Here's what we need to remember as Christians.

465

We don't have to take up arms, though.

466

There are times when you have to, and we're going to talk about the Crusades and how I'm very pro the Crusades,

467

right, because they were doing what had to be done.

468

All right, we've been told a lie about that.

469

We're going to talk about that.

470

We've got 10 weeks of this, right?

471

We've got a lot to talk about.

472

I'm very pro Crusades.

473

Where does that leave us?

474

Where does that leave us in terms of the most likely Senate outcome?

475

Well, drum roll if you please, here it is.

476

Chance that the Democrats win the Senate, this is the most likely outcome, is now up to 71%.

477

71%.

478

I never thought I'd see the day early on in this campaign where

479

Democrats would have a 71 % chance of winning back the United States Senate.

480

I mean, that is a huge chance, but it's still not 100%.

481

Republicans still have a 29 % chance of holding on to the United States Senate, And that ain't nothing.

482

That ain't nothing, because a good baseball hitter, right, gets on, what, 30 percent, bats 300, although baseball players have been getting hits less and less.

483

But that's right near that.

484

That's right near that.

485

And of course, we can remember the Wade Boggs of the world, the George Bretts of the world.

486

They were easily breaking 300 batting averages, getting on at least 30 percent of the time, all of the time.

487

So, look, this is still, this is still a quite a high possibility.

488

He's not, this is not a Calci prediction.

489

He's not talking about Calci prediction odds.

490

This is his estimate, dude, his aggregate of the models.

491

You see players who have 290 batting averages getting on a whole heck of a lot.

492

Now, this is 71%, right?

493

But I promised you specific seat forecast, specific seat forecast.

494

So here we go.

495

This is it.

496

This is the specific seat forecast.

497

And I'm going to get nerdy for a second here.

498

But first, what are we talking about?

499

We are talking about 52 Democrats.

500

52 Democrats compared to 48 Republicans.

501

Compared to 48 Republicans.

502

So Democrats, not just getting the 51 seats necessary, but getting the 52, a clear majority of United States Senate seats.

503

Now, if you're looking at your map here, you'll see, look, Texas goes blue.

504

Kansas goes blue.

505

Alaska, yes, Alaska at this point goes blue.

506

We'll have to wait and see.

507

Ohio goes blue to get the flip in North Carolina.

508

Michigan stays blue and maine yes even in maine you get a flip

509

but here's the thing i want

510

you to keep in mind as we look at this the race in these states maine kansas iowa stays red

511

and alaska are all very very very close it wouldn't surprise me

512

if any of these seats went the other way now

513

if you're truly a nerd at home you might be tallying up

514

and you go harry wait a minute it's actually 53 seats that you're showing that

515

Democrats will win in terms of the seats they currently have and then the seats that they would gain in this election.

516

Here's the thing.

517

We're talking probabilistically.

518

So that one of these states, one of these states that currently, that I am saying are going to go blue, may not go blue.

519

I mean, the race in Kansas right now in the polling, in the projections, it seems to be very, very tight.

520

Maybe that seat actually goes red.

521

We don't know.

522

We're talking probabilistically.

523

And when we add it up, it's 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans so

524

that is right now the final seat forecast we'll go back after the election see how it works out individually

525

but i'm putting it on the line right here and with

526

that we head to my favorite section yes yes

527

it's the bonus section do do do i do do do do do do do oh my god

528

it's austin show oh my god by god that's austin show's music

529

clocked he literally is Austin he's a shower Austin hates him

530

wait why a doobie a doobie a doobie a doobie a doobie do wow yeah I think it's

531

because he hates looking at the mirror

532

and what reflects back at him he sees

533

but he does not like is harry emden gay all right harry might not be gay

534

but he is a queen what's up youtube you like

535

that video please like subscribe

536

and turn on the notifications also tune into my stream i'm probably live right now at twitch .tv slash Hassanabi

537

and support independent media like the Piker Broadcasting Service, the People's Broadcasting Service.

538

Thank you.

539

Ainsley Earnhardt did it better.

540

Shut up!

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このレッスンの語彙とスピーキングのポイント

このスピーキングレッスンは、動画「HISTORIC MIDTERMS ARE UPON US」を教材にしています。繰り返し出てくる語は次のとおりです：republican, democrat, senate, seat, trump。この動画には、シャドーイング用の文が539文、単語が5709語あります。音声の長さは35:15です。話す速さは1分あたり約162語で、日常会話に近い自然なペースです。単語の82%は英語の頻出3,000語に含まれます。残りは練習の前に確認しておきましょう。

この動画の重要語彙

動画に出てくる覚えておきたい単語15語を、発音と意味つきで紹介します。

単語	発音	意味
forecast 名詞	/ˈfɔːkɑːst/	予想, 予報
underwater 形容詞	/ʌndɚˈwɔtəɹ/	水中の
democrat 名詞	/ˈdɪməkɹæt/	民主主義者
voter 名詞	/ˈvoʊtɚ/	投票者, 選挙人
unpopular 形容詞		不評
moderate 形容詞	/ˈmɑdəɹət/	適度な
opponent 名詞	/əˈpəʊ.nənt/	相手
scenario 名詞	/sɪˈnɛəɹioʊ/	脚本, 台本
scandal 名詞	/ˈskændəl/	不祥事, スキャンダル
prediction 名詞	/pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/	予言, 予測
margin 名詞	/ˈmɑɹ.d͡ʒɪn/	余白
cooper 名詞	/ˈkʊpɚ/	桶屋
ballot 名詞	/ˈbælət/	投票
aggregate 名詞	/ˈæɡ.ɹɪ.ɡət/	総計, 合計
defend 動詞	/dɪˈfɪnd/	守る, 防ぐ

動画に出てくる句動詞

単語	発音	意味
pick up 動詞		拾う, 拾い上げる
come out 動詞	/ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/	出る
go back 動詞		戻る, 帰る
show up 動詞		現れる
shut up	/ʃʌt ʌp/	だまれ, うるさい

繰り返し練習したい文

動画に出てくる短く完結した文です。日常会話でそのまま使えます。

I'm not going to say anything.
Guys, I'm going to explain something to you.
Johnson, I'm telling you the polls are wrong.
You know what I mean?
Where does that leave us?

この動画の文法

話し手がよく使っている文型を、動画の実際の表現とともに紹介します。

文型	動画での表現
現在完了進行形 have/has been + -ing — 以前に始まり今も続いている動作	they've been torturing · They've been weighing · that's been deporting
現在完了形 have/has + 過去分詞 — 過去の出来事が今も関係している	They've been · you've been · have not made
受動態 be + 過去分詞 — 誰がするかより、何が起きるかに焦点を当てる	are comprised · are unfortunately propped · are inundated

注意したい発音

話し手はI'm, we're, they'reなど、短縮形や弱形を134回使っています。聞こえたとおりの短い形で発音しましょう。

「th」の音: thin /ˈθɪn/, nevertheless /ˌnɛvɚðəˈlɛs/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, underneath /ˌʌndɚˈniθ/, nonetheless /ˌnʌnðəˈlɛs/
「sh」と「zh」の音: potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, participation /pɑːˌtɪs.ɪˈpeɪ.ʃən/, consumption /kənˈsʌmp.ʃən/, corruption /kəˈɹʌpʃən/
長い単語（アクセントの位置に注意）: underwater /ʌndɚˈwɔtəɹ/, potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/, participation /pɑːˌtɪs.ɪˈpeɪ.ʃən/, hilarious /hɪˈlɛə.ɹi.əs/, entity /ˈɛn.tə.ti/ [-tʰi]

日本語話者が苦手な音：

/r/ と /l/ の区別 — /l/ は舌先を歯茎につけ、/r/ はどこにもつけない: regardless /ɹɪˈɡɑɹd.lɪs/, horrible /ˈhɔɹ.ɪ.bəl/, spiritual /ˈspɪɹɪt͡ʃuəl/, reflect /ɹɪˈflɛkt/, hilarious /hɪˈlɛə.ɹi.əs/
/v/ — /b/ にならないように、上の歯を下唇に当てる: voter /ˈvoʊtɚ/, whatsoever /ˌ(h)wʌtsoʊˈɛvɚ/, vibe /vaɪb/, visible /ˈvɪzɪb(ə)l/, arrive /əˈɹaɪv/
/f/ — 「フ」ではなく、上の歯と下唇で出す: flip /flɪp/, forecast /ˈfɔːkɑːst/, defend /dɪˈfɪnd/, reflect /ɹɪˈflɛkt/, confused /kənˈfjuːzd/

この動画での練習方法

まず声を出さずに動画を最後まで聞き、知らない単語をメモします。
まず0.75倍速で一文ずつシャドーイングし、慣れてきたら通常の速度に戻します。
自分の声を録音して元の音声と比べます。forecast, underwater, democratなどの単語に特に注意しましょう。

シャドーイングとは？英語上達に効果的な理由

シャドーイング（Shadowing）は、もともとプロの通訳者養成プログラムで開発された言語学習法で、多言語習得者として知られるDr. Alexander Arguelles によって広く普及されました。方法はシンプルですが非常に効果的：ネイティブスピーカーの英語を聞きながら、1〜2秒の遅延で声に出してすぐに繰り返す——まるで「影（shadow）」のように話者を追いかけます。文法ドリルや受動的なリスニングと異なり、シャドーイングは脳と口の筋肉が同時にリアルタイムで英語を処理・再現することを強制します。研究により、発音精度、抑揚、リズム、連音、リスニング力、そして会話の流暢さが大幅に向上することが確認されています。IELTSスピーキング対策や自然な英語コミュニケーションを目指す方に特におすすめです。

シャドーイングのやり方: ステップ別の完全ガイドを読む →

シャドーイング練習: HISTORIC MIDTERMS ARE UPON US - 動画で英語スピーキングを学ぶ

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このレッスンの語彙とスピーキングのポイント

この動画の重要語彙

動画に出てくる句動詞

繰り返し練習したい文

この動画の文法

注意したい発音

この動画での練習方法

シャドーイングとは？英語上達に効果的な理由