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in the likeliest scenario, I'm saying Blorja blish again blanzas and a blend Tucky is real.
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So here's the thing guys.
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We'll see.
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We'll see.
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We'll see what's up.
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I'm not going to say anything.
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I'm not going to say anything.
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Let's just get, let's just get back to the news.
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Polling is a problem.
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This year says Chaz nutty comb.
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Polling is a problem.
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Total recall bias.
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Our findings suggest this probably causes a two point error favoring
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Democrats in your standard generic ballot poll to add insult to injury many posters are using pretty conservative weights
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this year a large non -response bias among republicans must occur to counteract those observations otherwise
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we are probably on track for a va new jersey 2025
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repeat the groups trump made his largest gains with younger
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non -white lower income non -college politically disaffected are the most likely to lie to pollsters by saying
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they didn't vote for him in 2024 because they're reinforcing their upcoming vote choice.
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Guys, I'm going to explain something to you.
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Okay.
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I know all of the smart posters keep saying like, it's a blue NAMI.
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It's a blue NAMI.
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They've been, they've been torturing the polls.
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They've been weighing for Republicans just outright refusing to pick up any phone calls.
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Like it's virtually impossible to find a Republican.
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And even then there is a plus eight national environment favoring the Democrats, right?
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All I'm saying is this, have you met the Republicans or rather just voters in general?
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That's all I'm saying.
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If you've been around the country and I've been all around the country and gone to these districts,
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gone and seen these races, the voters, all I will say is this, just manage your expectations.
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Okay.
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Money matters.
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Elon Musk personally dumped $450 million or $500 million,
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or I don't know, some crazy number right into the midterms alone.
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Remember Elon Musk is a singular donor dropped more than $400 million into the midterms alone in numerous races.
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Elon Musk, uh, in the presidential cycle had dropped half of that.
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So he doubled up his investment.
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Now it's really, really, really important to understand something here.
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Okay.
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These ads that touch on people's worst instincts, these ads that get people agitated,
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these ads that, that are comprised of, you know, racial agitation, all the most heinous stuff that we see,
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they are unfortunately propped up by garbage media consumption that your grandparents and your parents who are likely
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Trump voters or former
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Trump voters already are inundated with.
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And when you pair those two things together, you might not actually have it reflected adequately in the polling data,
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but you could potentially see a lot of these people come out and vote.
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I'm just saying, I expect the Democrats to win the majority in the Senate.
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I expect the Democrats to win the majority in the Senate.
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Michael from PA thinks it's 56.
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I think it's likely 52.
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I have not made any like firm predictions so far.
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I do worry a lot about the Abdul El -Sayed race regardless.
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I'm at 52 on the Senate.
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Obviously the House goes to the Democrats.
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That's a lock.
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And I'll give you my most controversial take.
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in spite of the latino swing young white men are leaving the republican party
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and more importantly latinos are leaving the republican party
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i still think the texas rule voters are going to show up
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and they're going to put
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that piece of shit ken paxton in office i hope
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it's not the case i really want james talley to win i really want blags this to happen
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but i have been hurt before
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and i will not believe it until i see it i hope
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i'm wrong i hope i'm wrong i'm telling you guys right
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now i just i've seen my fellow man i've traveled around the country
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i've seen these voters okay i know what what motivates them
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i know what leads them to make decisions they are not operating on the same fucking playing field
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and i'm seeing early voter uh participation especially in texas from rural areas
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and uh i'm a little bit worried anyway we'll see i need
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you to understand something the data says blue nami
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so michael from pennsylvania is absolutely correct
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when he says 56 he's not wrong he's not only looking at the polls
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but he's also analyzing the readily available information by scratching the surface of the polls,
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looking at how they're even delivering the results that they're getting right now, and the results that they're getting right now.
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are after numerous weights and numerous adjustments like Nebraska, right?
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Right now, a new poll came out not looking too good for Dan Osborne in Nebraska, right?
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How do we arrive at this number in Nebraska?
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Well, you look at it, Nebraska was plus 24 in 2024.
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Currently, if you look at electoral, like early vote participation, the environment is plus two for Republicans.
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However,
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the polling is done off of plus 22 for republicans that's crazy right for all intents
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and purposes if you are a hard data guy
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if you are engaging in analysis off of just the readily available information no vibes whatsoever
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you look at this stuff
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and you look at like uh you look at the new york times numbers
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you look at all these different polls you realize that they are basically giving
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Republicans like a 10 point boost because they simply cannot encounter a single
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Republican when they're going all across states like Kansas,
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they can't find the sufficient number of Republicans to pick up the phone and answer a pollster.
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Johnson, I'm telling you the polls are wrong.
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We're going to defy history and we're going to be celebrating big victories.
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Okay.
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I wouldn't go that far, right?
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Like this is in the, in the likeliest scenario, I'm saying Blorja,
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Blishigan, Blanzas, and possibly Blaine and, and blow Ohio.
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Obviously North Carolina is a lock too.
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I do not have a lot of confidence in South Carolina flipping, even though God, the Republican candidate selection is so bad.
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It is so bad that like
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Mike Rogers is one of their heavy hitters this time around.
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You know what I mean?
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Like, think about how devastating the Republican candidate selection is that
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Mike Rogers comes across.
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Mike Rogers comes across as like a, like a better candidate than the rest.
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And that's only because he, he doesn't have, at least as far as I know, sexual deviancies under his, his banner, right?
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He's just like pure, he's old school.
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He's going straight racist, right? he's not he's not gone the distance he's not doing uh
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you know defensive pedophiles as much as many of these other republicans have like ken paxton
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or vivek ramaswamy it's also kind of funny to think the cubans in miami are unironically voting for an administration
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that's been deporting their neighbors like their cuban neighbors
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while simultaneously starving the cubans in cuba which of course uh creates an environment
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that necessitates more migration from cuba more refugees from cuba to miami right
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so they are some of the the biggest like leopards eating
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my face voters of all time bro is this fake news
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then with mike rogers new mike rogers ducks questions over his
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campaign leaders ties to a midland church sex abuse game spoke too soon
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spoke too soon i i want to apologize
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i want to issue a correction earlier uh from from three minutes ago approximately three minutes ago
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i made the wrong i made a wrong statement
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i said as far as i know mike rogers is one of the few republicans
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that does not have like a sex abuse scandal
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that he has a close association with it turns out
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it turns out abc 12 reports rogers has kept a member
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of his campaign senior leadership team who publicly supported a man convicted of sexually abusing children
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you know it's quite difficult folks let's be real
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it's quite difficult for the grand old pedophile party to to not hire people
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that haven't at some point defended pedophilia sexual abuse
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that makes sense yeah pedocon theory is a theory like the
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theory of gravity anyway here's johnson here's michael johnson also
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you know definitely overestimating the republican party's chances like i don't think
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this is what's gonna happen all over the country my friends
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and i'm feeling really good right now i'm telling you the polls are wrong okay
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we're going to defy history
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and we are going to be celebrating big victories on tuesday night
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that's my prediction okay amen it's a spiritual battle yes ma 'am
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we're going to talk
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i spiritual battle yes ma 'am is this the beginning of
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the end for donald trump these upcoming midterm elections won't see trump out of the white house
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but if polls are to be believed the democrats will be very successful
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and that is a threat to trump's power for the first time republicans are finding
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that they have to fight hard in deep red states
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that they never thought they'd need to defend
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and trump's approval ratings aren't looking strong either so i just i don't i don't know how you can
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right now be supportive of what's been going on in Washington.
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So which states are key for Trump to maintain power and how close could it all really get?
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Millions of Americans are going to the polls.
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In some places early voting has been underway for days.
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And that I'm on the ballot because we get a lot more votes.
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Midterm elections are rarely good news for the incumbent in the White House.
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I accept responsibility for not delivering to whatever extent.
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It's my fault we haven't delivered back to the American people what they want on
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that i have to accept
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that responsibility actually i thought we're going to do fine yesterday both parties are bad trust me i hate
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that i mean both parties are bad let's be fucking real okay
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there are uh there are horrible democrats out there i mean they're still better than the republicans
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but they're horrible nevertheless nonetheless and then we're seeing
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that we're seeing some of those individuals right now you know they can't seem to lock in
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and do their
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and play their role for like even
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you know five more days three more days whatever however long it takes just just don't say anything
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if you got nothing positive to say just shut the fuck
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up can't do it can't do it shows what i know
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but i thought we're gonna be fine in the election i'm not recommending for every future president
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that they take a shellacking like they like i did last night.
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In the House of Representatives, all 435 seats are up for grabs.
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The outgoing Congress had 218
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Republicans, one independent who votes with them, 214 Democrats, and two vacancies.
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This gave President Trump's Republicans, led by House Speaker Mike Johnson, a razor -thin majority over the Democrats, led by Hakeem Jeffries.
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It is considered highly likely that the Democrats will gain the four seats
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that they need to take the 218 majority that's required and more besides
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over in the u .s senate there are 100 seats each of the 50 states has two senators
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and they sit for six -year terms 35 seats are up
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for re -election the outgoing senate had a republican majority of 53 against 45 democrats
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and two independents who voted with the democrats the democrats need a net gain of four seats.
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So where will control be decided?
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These are the states that are considered competitive if the polls are to be believed.
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If they want to take control of the Senate, the Democrats need to keep Michigan.
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But Donald Trump won this state in 2024 and the existing
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Senator is retiring.
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The Democrat candidate, Abdul El -Sayed, will become the first
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Muslim member of the US Senate and tensions have been high between him and Trump.
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Whilst Republican Mike Rogers is a backer of President Trump, Butt has criticized his tariffs on the state's neighbor, Canada.
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The Democrats could lose this seat and still mathematically win a majority, but it will be much harder.
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They also have to hold on to the Georgia Senate seat of John Ossoff, who won by a narrow margin.
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He's going to win.
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Last time, Butt is considered a rising star in his party
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and appears to have a healthy lead in the polls
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and to new hampshire a state which is usually democrat but
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that is ironically enough another seat that gets no coverage whatsoever
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but that is probably going to go
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that is going to be a flip i think i am very worried that new hampshire is going to flip republican
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and maine is going to flip democrat i don't think
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so there was only one poll to show to flip i'm worried man
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which has a republican governor
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and to minnesota where the democrats have been battling a fraud scandal
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and the decision by their governor tim waltz part of the problem isn't just
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that chris poppas is like not very popular it's
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that his opposition polls say poppas has a fat lead i hope i hope
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if they can hold on there the democrats have to flip four of these republican held seats
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they're hopeful of winning north carolina where the popular former governor
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roy cooper is pulling well ahead of his opponent michael whatley
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maine is a tradition yeah roy cooper is a lock democrats well ahead of
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when that's have to flip four of these republicans minnesota
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i think minnesota is going to be a win i think minnesota stays i think north carolina stays or not stays
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Cooper is polling well ahead of his opponent, Michael Watley.
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Maine is a traditionally
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Democrat state that has repeatedly returned
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Republican Senator Susan Collins, a moderate who's been willing to break with President Trump at times.
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She's being challenged by Tony Jackson, a former logger who was a late substitute when the previous
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Democratic nominee had to drop out over a sex scandal.
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Now, Republicans are also right about Alaska, where Mary Peltola could be on course to beat incumbent republican dan sullivan he said tony jackson dude he's
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so it's kind of funny that troy jackson is considered so unremarkable
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He, he's considered so unremarkable despite the fact that his race is pivotal, right?
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For, for the Senate majority, because it would be a flip and it's hilarious that, that they're just like
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Tony Jackson, a moderate, literally none of those things are correct.
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His name is Troy Jackson and he's definitely not a moderate.
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He just, people just think he is because he's boring
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so much of this stuff is on vibes he's pro -medicure for all
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he calls out israel's genocide he's in favor of of denying aid to israel like he's not he's not a moderate
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oh they said collins is a moderate not him oh okay i i misunderstood
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but again they got his name wrong not to be confused
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with another dan sullivan on the ballot who republicans say is a spoiler
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the trump administration's department of justice is already preparing a legal
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challenge to the result ohio formerly the seat of jd vance the vice president is considered competitive
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and is another possible gain for the democrats and
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if polls are believed the long -time republican stronghold of texas
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could deliver a major blow again all polling shows currently
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that talafrico is most likely going to do the damn thing
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and create blexus make blexus a reality i want to believe that
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but deep in my bones
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i have a real fear about texas about how texas republicans operate thoughts on gina for governor there's no world
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if if i don't think if talafrico doesn't win against campax
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and gina's winning against uh governor greg abbott i think gina already has a tough battle regardless uh even
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if talafrico wins because greg abbott is uh you know he's a fairly competent demonic entity
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that doesn't have the same level of of uh haters
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and the the same disapproval as as ken paxton ken paxton
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is has i think the highest disapproval in the in in the country out of all the candidates
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that are running other than like donald trump
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i guess also elon is dumping millions tens of millions hundreds of millions of dollars into
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that race too to republican morale polls suggest
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that james tallarico is ahead of his scandal tainted
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but mega supported opponent ken paxton in what is the most
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expensive senate contest race of all time musk's millions though might not be enough to save the day for trump
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and paxton if
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that wasn't bad enough for the president then kansas could return a democratic center for the first time since this man,
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George McGill, who left office in, yes, 1939.
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Polls suggest that the megachurch founder Adam Hamilton could be poised to take this reddest of red states away from the Republicans.
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And that previously unthinkable result has got
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Democrats dreaming of other victories.
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In Iowa, Josh Turek is within a few points of Republican Ashley Hinson
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and the weak polling advantage of Republican Darlene Graham a political
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novice who is running to replace her late brother Lindsey Graham has caused the Republicans to this is another one
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that became an unnecessary contest because of you know the demise of Lindsey Graham
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and then Donald Trump deciding to make Lindsey's stupid sister who
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doesn't know anything who's like very clearly not knowledgeable run in his stead
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but i still don't think south carolina turns throw money at the contest
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and persuade trump to adopt abusive nicknames for her opponent dr annie andrews
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and there are also competitive races for state governors these officers enjoy enormous power
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and those elected can be a thorn in the side of the white house 36 states are up election.
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The parties hold 18 each.
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There are close races, and if the polls are correct,
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the Democrats could end up with a majority of state governors for the first time since 2011.
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So, for Trump, even his millionaire friends
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and fame may not be able to win those seats
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that he so desperately needs to keep control in the House and the Senate.
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And without control
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and influence there this really could be the beginning of the
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end for trump's america a majority by one is a majority by none
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because corporate democrats will volunteer to be the bad guy a
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majority by six would also still yield the same results
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but a majority by one is a majority by none because of john fetterman it's different john fetterman I'll see you then. is possibly a flip.
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Like, I don't consider John Fetterman to be a Democrat.
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Well, our most likely scenario is, but da -da -da -da -da, Democrats' chance to win the U .S.
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House of Representatives up to 92 percent, up to 92 percent that
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Democrats win back the U .S.
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House of Representatives according to an aggregate of models, my aggregate of models.
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Now look, 92 percent is not 100 % that still leaves
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Republicans with an 8 % chance, but chances are Democrats are going to take back the House,
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and more than that, they're going to take back the House with ease because I promised you a specific seat forecast, and here it is.
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In the horseshoe, you can see it.
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There's more blue than red, and so our final projection, our final House forecast is 237 seats for the Dems, 198 seats.
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oh my god it's a bloodbath
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michael from pennsylvania thinks it's like more than that too michael says it's like 250
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so the republicans look this is the most likely forecast
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i'm not saying i'm going to be right on it's going to be very interesting to see after the elections
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we're going to go back we're going to see how close
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that this actually got
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but at this point democrats look like they're not just going to reach 218 seats
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they're going to exceed it with ease of course i know the real reason
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or at least I think I know the real reason that a lot of you have tuned into this,
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and that is you want a Senate forecast.
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And we do have a final
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Senate forecast, but this is obviously exhausting me.
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I've had a very long week, so a little mid -forecast drink for me.
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Oh, my God, it's Coca -Cola.
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I do enjoy a good cream soda, and there we go.
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Okay, so we're going to be projecting out all of the Senate seats,
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all 35 Senate seats, all the states in yellow we're going to fill them on in.
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We're going to fill them on in.
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But before we do so, we have to understand just how hard it is for Democrats, historically speaking, how hard it is for Democrats and why
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Republicans at the beginning of this cycle, we thought were in the catbird seat.
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And this is why.
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Take a look here.
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Senate flips in states that the party lost by at least 10 points in the prior presidential election.
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How many seats did they flip in non -special elections since 2011?
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That is, over the last 15 years, they flipped zero, zero, zero.
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They flipped zero seats.
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And why is that so important?
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Because Democrats need at least two.
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At least they need to flip at least two plus 10
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Trump states in order to win back the United States Senate.
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But here's where it gets really interesting.
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Here's where it gets really interesting.
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Look at this.
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Okay.
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Take a look at these key
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Senate race Dem poll margins at this point where
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Trump won by at least 10 points.
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You actually see a lot of blue on your screen.
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Alaska, plus three.
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It would be interesting to see if the final polls actually end up matching the results, given all the controversies there with the two Dan Sullivans.
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Ohio, Sherrod Brown, seeming to do pretty gosh darn well at this point, leading by three points.
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The Democrat there trying to win back a seat in the Senate.
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Of course, he's a former longtime incumbent.
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Texas, James Tallarico, hoping to become the first
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United States senator from Texas since 1988.
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He's up by three.
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Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932, when Babe Ruth looked to the bleachers and called his shot in the 32
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World Series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
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And Iowa, you can't get any closer than that.
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The Democrat Josh Turek in the polling up by the smallest, smallest of margins a point.
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Should be noted, all these races are really tight right now, but they do seem to be leaning slightly
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Democratic, slightly Democratic.
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Now, what could possibly cause this?
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Because Trump won in these states by at least 10 points just two years ago.
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Well, my dear friends, it's something that should have
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Republicans nationwide picking up the phone, picking up the phone.
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Hello, hello, what is going on, White House?
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What is going on?
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And here's the deal.
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Trump, despite winning all those states by at least 10 points, is now underwater by double digits in all of them.
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In Texas, he's 13 points underwater.
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Alaska, 15 points underwater.
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Deep down there, I mean, my goodness gracious, you can get in the Pacific Ocean,
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you can't get as far south as Donald Trump is right now.
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How about in Iowa, the cornfields of Iowa?
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He's way underneath those cornfields.
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Look at that.
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16 points underwater.
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Hanses, 16 points underwater.
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And Ohio, he's down there in the Ohio River, my dear friends.
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He's 16 points underwater.
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Woof.
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It's no bueno, not good news.
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Now, here's the thing to keep in mind, though.
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I know a lot of you are wondering about this.
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It's so funny.
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This is literally why I'm assuming that many of the state
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Republicans were just like, please don't show up and then he canceled it
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and then everyone called him a for canceling it
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so he's like i'm going anyway it's hilarious
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that he is the most malleable most easily manipulated person of all time unironically a national security threat
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i'm not even kidding like having the american president have this like this many visible personality flaws
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is truly a national security compromise.
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It is a it is a national security problem.
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And it is really worth this asterisk and this gives hope.
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This gives hopes to Republicans.
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Look at this.
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Okay.
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You all know if you're watching this video that polling has tended to underestimate
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Republicans and that is true especially in Trump one states.
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Look at this.
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The GOP has beat their final
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Senate poll average from 2018 to 2024 by 4 .1 points in the states
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Trump won in the prior election.
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We're looking at the closed states, the states that in the final
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Senate polling average were all within five.
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And that is the case with all, with all of these states.
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I mean, look at this, 3, 3, 3, 3, less than one.
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So when we see that and we see, oh, wow, that 4 .1, all of that is within the historic range in which
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Republicans could potentially win.
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And that's why this map really, to me, tells an important story.
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This is very possible.
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This is possible.
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Your 2026 Senate, if polls underestimate the GOP by force points, right?
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Across the board.
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Look at that.
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You get Michigan.
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Michigan goes red.
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Iowa stays red.
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Texas is red.
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Alaska is red.
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Kansas stays red.
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And you just see that it is quite possible that
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Republicans do, in fact, hold on the United States Senate.
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But that's not the full story.
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Because it's not just about Trump and his unpopularity.
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It is also about how unpopular these.
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When does Vetterman leave government?
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2028. Different Senate candidates are the Republicans in these deeply red states.
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Look at this.
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They're all.
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2028 or before because of a health care complication.
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Double digits underwater.
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Dan Sullivan, Ashley Hinson in Iowa, Roger Marshall in Kansas, John Husted in Ohio, Kemp Axton.
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Kemp Axton, 29 points underwater.
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What the heck is that?
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That makes him by far the most unpopular GOP Senate nominee in Texas this century.
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I will also note that this
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Roger Marshall number, minus 17, I did the math, that also makes
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Roger Marshall, at this late point in the campaign, the most unpopular GOP nominee.
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The reason why I think, like, Roger Marshall is potentially going to lose, and I also think Husted's Cook, too, is because of their disapprovals.
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But the reason why I think
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Ken Paxton survives is because it's Texas
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and it's Ken Paxton there is no real evidence to suggest that james talafrico is going to lose this race
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i just have that little faith in texas
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and uh i think just ken paxton has has survived somehow
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you know it's the good whites bad whites yes
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i think texas is more racially polarized than even kansas's senate in kansas now it goes beyond
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that though right because we're talking about history potentially being made,
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and I know a lot of folks have had a lot of interest in the Texas Senate race, and they'll say, oh yes,
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the polls have underestimated Republicans.
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Here's the deal though.
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James Tallarico's six -point lead is the best that any
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Democratic Senate nominee since 1988, when Lloyd Benson was the last
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Democrat to win a Senate seat, was polling at this late point in the campaign.
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So this is truly historic.
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Beto O 'Rourke was behind at this point back in the 2018 cycle.
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Now, I've been talking about the plus 10
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Trump states, right?
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I've been talking about that.
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But there's also another
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Republican -held Senate seat where we've had an incumbent who has outperformed their polling in the past.
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And I'm, of course, talking about Susan Collins in Maine.
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Susan Collins in Maine.
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Her net popularity, though, in Maine right now is the worst it has been heading into an election this entire century, in the 2000s.
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Look at this.
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he says this entire century
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because she's been around for 150 years pretty much yeah
441
this is also um a good sign however unfortunately tryotathon is
442
also a known entity in main politics he's the president of
443
the senate uh he's been around for a minute right
444
and his disapprovals are pretty high too i love tryota having said that it seems to me like
445
People in Maine, which, by the way, Ms. Rachel is from, she also endorsed Troy Jackson.
446
People in Maine have mixed reviews about Mr. Troy Jackson.
447
Twelve points underwater.
448
So, yes, Susan Collins has outperformed her polling in the past, but she has never been as unpopular as she is right now.
449
And this is what we're seeing across the map.
450
We're seeing historic anomalies, not just that
451
Trump is unpopular, but these anecdotal
452
but texas conservatives do not care about corruption they only care about lower property tax
453
and small business no for sure i know that also they're fucking insanely racist are historically unpopular so
454
What is, in fact, the most likely Senate scenario?
455
Well, I can tell you that the chance of it has gone way up.
456
It has gone way up from where we were when we made our first forecast back on August the 13th.
457
Look at this.
458
Up 19 points, nearly up 20 points.
459
I guess 19 would be one, a four, and a five.
460
Up 19 points according to my aggregation of models.
461
Breaking unearthed footage shows
462
Ken Paxson's son glorifying religious violence against
463
Jews and Muslims.
464
Here's what we need to remember as Christians.
465
We don't have to take up arms, though.
466
There are times when you have to, and we're going to talk about the Crusades and how I'm very pro the Crusades,
467
right, because they were doing what had to be done.
468
All right, we've been told a lie about that.
469
We're going to talk about that.
470
We've got 10 weeks of this, right?
471
We've got a lot to talk about.
472
I'm very pro Crusades.
473
Where does that leave us?
474
Where does that leave us in terms of the most likely Senate outcome?
475
Well, drum roll if you please, here it is.
476
Chance that the Democrats win the Senate, this is the most likely outcome, is now up to 71%.
477
71%.
478
I never thought I'd see the day early on in this campaign where
479
Democrats would have a 71 % chance of winning back the United States Senate.
480
I mean, that is a huge chance, but it's still not 100%.
481
Republicans still have a 29 % chance of holding on to the United States Senate, And that ain't nothing.
482
That ain't nothing, because a good baseball hitter, right, gets on, what, 30 percent, bats 300, although baseball players have been getting hits less and less.
483
But that's right near that.
484
That's right near that.
485
And of course, we can remember the Wade Boggs of the world, the George Bretts of the world.
486
They were easily breaking 300 batting averages, getting on at least 30 percent of the time, all of the time.
487
So, look, this is still, this is still a quite a high possibility.
488
He's not, this is not a Calci prediction.
489
He's not talking about Calci prediction odds.
490
This is his estimate, dude, his aggregate of the models.
491
You see players who have 290 batting averages getting on a whole heck of a lot.
492
Now, this is 71%, right?
493
But I promised you specific seat forecast, specific seat forecast.
494
So here we go.
495
This is it.
496
This is the specific seat forecast.
497
And I'm going to get nerdy for a second here.
498
But first, what are we talking about?
499
We are talking about 52 Democrats.
500
52 Democrats compared to 48 Republicans.
501
Compared to 48 Republicans.
502
So Democrats, not just getting the 51 seats necessary, but getting the 52, a clear majority of United States Senate seats.
503
Now, if you're looking at your map here, you'll see, look, Texas goes blue.
504
Kansas goes blue.
505
Alaska, yes, Alaska at this point goes blue.
506
We'll have to wait and see.
507
Ohio goes blue to get the flip in North Carolina.
508
Michigan stays blue and maine yes even in maine you get a flip
509
but here's the thing i want
510
you to keep in mind as we look at this the race in these states maine kansas iowa stays red
511
and alaska are all very very very close it wouldn't surprise me
512
if any of these seats went the other way now
513
if you're truly a nerd at home you might be tallying up
514
and you go harry wait a minute it's actually 53 seats that you're showing that
515
Democrats will win in terms of the seats they currently have and then the seats that they would gain in this election.
516
Here's the thing.
517
We're talking probabilistically.
518
So that one of these states, one of these states that currently, that I am saying are going to go blue, may not go blue.
519
I mean, the race in Kansas right now in the polling, in the projections, it seems to be very, very tight.
520
Maybe that seat actually goes red.
521
We don't know.
522
We're talking probabilistically.
523
And when we add it up, it's 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans so
524
that is right now the final seat forecast we'll go back after the election see how it works out individually
525
but i'm putting it on the line right here and with
526
that we head to my favorite section yes yes
527
it's the bonus section do do do i do do do do do do do oh my god
528
it's austin show oh my god by god that's austin show's music
529
clocked he literally is Austin he's a shower Austin hates him
530
wait why a doobie a doobie a doobie a doobie a doobie do wow yeah I think it's
531
because he hates looking at the mirror
532
and what reflects back at him he sees
533
but he does not like is harry emden gay all right harry might not be gay
534
but he is a queen what's up youtube you like
535
that video please like subscribe
536
and turn on the notifications also tune into my stream i'm probably live right now at twitch .tv slash Hassanabi
537
and support independent media like the Piker Broadcasting Service, the People's Broadcasting Service.
538
Thank you.
539
Ainsley Earnhardt did it better.
540
Shut up!
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Từ vựng và ghi chú luyện nói cho bài học này
Bài luyện nói này dựa trên video “HISTORIC MIDTERMS ARE UPON US”. Những từ được nhắc lại nhiều nhất trong bài: republican, democrat, senate, seat, trump. Video này có 539 câu và 5709 từ để luyện shadowing. Phần lời nói dài 35:15. Người nói nói với tốc độ tự nhiên, khoảng 162 từ mỗi phút, gần với hội thoại hằng ngày. 82% số từ nằm trong 3.000 từ tiếng Anh thông dụng nhất; phần còn lại nên xem trước khi luyện.
Từ vựng quan trọng trong video
15 từ đáng học trong video, kèm phiên âm và nghĩa:
| Từ | Phiên âm | Nghĩa |
|---|---|---|
| poll danh từ | /poʊl/ | cuộc thăm dò ý kiến |
| forecast danh từ | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | dự báo, dự đoán |
| democrat danh từ | /ˈdɪməkɹæt/ | nhà dân chủ |
| voter danh từ | /ˈvoʊtɚ/ | cử tri |
| moderate tính từ | /ˈmɑdəɹət/ | vừa phải, phải chăng |
| scenario danh từ | /sɪˈnɛəɹioʊ/ | trường hợp, kịch bản |
| scandal danh từ | /ˈskændəl/ | vụ bê bối, vụ tai tiếng |
| nominee danh từ | /ˌnɒmɪˈniː/ | đề cử viên, bổ nhiệm viên |
| ballot danh từ | /ˈbælət/ | lá phiếu, phiếu bầu cử |
| defend động từ | /dɪˈfɪnd/ | bảo vệ, che chở |
| racist danh từ | /ˈɹeɪ.sɪst/ | người phân biệt chủng tộc |
| reflect động từ | /ɹɪˈflɛkt/ | phản chiếu |
| participation danh từ | /pɑːˌtɪs.ɪˈpeɪ.ʃən/ | sự tham gia |
| hilarious tính từ | /hɪˈlɛə.ɹi.əs/ | hài hước |
| poster danh từ | /ˈpoʊstɚ/ | bích chương, áp phích |
Cụm động từ bạn sẽ nghe
| Từ | Phiên âm | Nghĩa |
|---|---|---|
| pick up động từ | nhặt, lượm | |
| go back động từ | trở lại | |
| take back động từ | lấy lại | |
| shut up | /ʃʌt ʌp/ | câm, câm mồm |
Những câu đáng luyện lại
Các câu ngắn, trọn ý trong video mà bạn có thể dùng lại khi giao tiếp hằng ngày:
- I'm not going to say anything.
- Guys, I'm going to explain something to you.
- Johnson, I'm telling you the polls are wrong.
- You know what I mean?
- Where does that leave us?
Ngữ pháp trong video
Những cấu trúc người nói dùng nhiều nhất, kèm đúng cụm từ trong video:
| Cấu trúc | Trong video |
|---|---|
| Thì hiện tại hoàn thành tiếp diễn have/has been + -ing — việc bắt đầu từ trước và vẫn đang tiếp tục | they've been torturing · They've been weighing · that's been deporting |
| Thì hiện tại hoàn thành have/has + quá khứ phân từ — việc đã xảy ra nhưng còn liên quan đến hiện tại | They've been · you've been · have not made |
| Câu bị động be + quá khứ phân từ — nhấn vào việc xảy ra, không phải người làm | are comprised · are unfortunately propped · are inundated |
Phát âm cần chú ý
Người nói dùng 134 dạng rút gọn, ví dụ I'm, we're, they're. Hãy nói theo dạng ngắn đúng như bạn nghe.
- Âm “th”: thin /ˈθɪn/, nevertheless /ˌnɛvɚðəˈlɛs/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, underneath /ˌʌndɚˈniθ/, nonetheless /ˌnʌnðəˈlɛs/
- Âm “sh” và “zh”: potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, participation /pɑːˌtɪs.ɪˈpeɪ.ʃən/, consumption /kənˈsʌmp.ʃən/, corruption /kəˈɹʌpʃən/
- Từ dài — đặt trọng âm cho đúng: underwater /ʌndɚˈwɔtəɹ/, potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/, participation /pɑːˌtɪs.ɪˈpeɪ.ʃən/, hilarious /hɪˈlɛə.ɹi.əs/, entity /ˈɛn.tə.ti/ [-tʰi]
Những âm người Việt thường gặp khó:
- Cụm phụ âm cuối — đọc đủ từng âm, đừng nuốt âm cuối: forecast /ˈfɔːkɑːst/, collins /ˈkɑlɪnz/, opponent /əˈpəʊ.nənt/, incumbent /ɪnˈkʌmbənt/, defend /dɪˈfɪnd/
- Âm /tʃ/, /dʒ/ và /ʒ/ — tiếng Việt không có, đừng đọc thành “ch” hay “gi”: margin /ˈmɑɹ.d͡ʒɪn/, spiritual /ˈspɪɹɪt͡ʃuəl/, digit /ˈdɪd͡ʒɪt/, engage /ɪnˈɡeɪd͡ʒ/, footage /ˈfʊtɪd͡ʒ/
- Âm /æ/ — mở miệng rộng hơn âm “e”: democrat /ˈdɪməkɹæt/, scandal /ˈskændəl/, ballot /ˈbælət/, aggregate /ˈæɡ.ɹɪ.ɡət/, narrow /ˈnæɹəʊ/
Cách luyện với video này
- Nghe hết video một lần, chưa cần nói, và ghi lại những từ bạn chưa biết.
- Bắt đầu ở tốc độ 0,75×, nói đuổi từng câu, rồi quay lại tốc độ bình thường khi đã quen.
- Ghi âm giọng mình rồi so với bản gốc, chú ý các từ như poll, forecast, democrat.
Phương Pháp Shadowing Là Gì?
Shadowing là kỹ thuật học ngôn ngữ có cơ sở khoa học, ban đầu được phát triển cho chương trình đào tạo phiên dịch viên chuyên nghiệp và được phổ biến rộng rãi bởi nhà đa ngôn ngữ học Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Nguyên lý cốt lõi đơn giản nhưng cực kỳ hiệu quả: bạn nghe tiếng Anh của người bản xứ và lặp lại to ngay lập tức — như một "cái bóng" (shadow) đuổi theo người nói với độ trễ chỉ 1–2 giây. Khác với luyện ngữ pháp hay học từ vựng bị động, Shadowing buộc não bộ và cơ miệng phải đồng thời xử lý và tái tạo ngôn ngữ thực tế. Các nghiên cứu khoa học xác nhận phương pháp này cải thiện đáng kể phát âm, ngữ điệu, nhịp điệu, nối âm, kỹ năng nghe và độ lưu loát khi nói — đặc biệt hiệu quả cho người luyện IELTS Speaking và muốn giao tiếp tiếng Anh tự nhiên như người bản ngữ.