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July 2016.

Factions of the Turkish military attempt a coup to remove incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Tanks and soldiers fill the streets, fighter jets fly overhead, and the city falls into chaos.

But Erdogan fights back.

He FaceTimes into a TV station from a holiday resort and exclaims, there is no power higher than the power of the people.

His rallying cry moves thousands of ordinary

Turks to the streets in protest of the military takeover.

Within a day, Erdogan is back in Istanbul and the coup is squashed.

Fast forward to today and Turks out in the streets, protesting for democracy again.

But this time, their hero is Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul.

İmamoğlu, a rising star and political threat to Erdogan, has been handed a 20 -month sentence and faces charges of corruption and aiding a terror group.

The news led

Turkish financial markets to plunge, while police responded to demonstrations with tear gas and rubber bullets, detaining almost 1 ,900 protesters.

When Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded

Turkey in 1923, his vision was a modern, secular, democratic nation rejecting the Ottoman past.

But now, Erdogan seems to be charting a new path.

Charismatic yet polarizing, he's dominated

Turkish politics since 2003, backed by a loyal base of working -class conservatives.

His critics believe he is destroying the economy and taking

Turkey on a path away from secular democracy and towards religious autocracy.

This is Erdogan, the new sultan.

In order to make sense of Erdogan's provocative agenda, we need to understand his rise to power.

Erdogan was born into a working -class conservative family in 1954 and attended a religious high school in Istanbul.

After graduating, he went almost directly into politics,

joining several Islamist parties and entering parliament for the first time in 1986 as a representative of a district of Istanbul.

His big break came in 1994 when he surprised the political establishment by winning the Istanbul mayoral election.

Over his four -year tenure, he was generally viewed as an effective mayor of the city.

Then 1999 happened.

He was jailed for reciting an Islamic poem at a 1997 rally, a violation of Turkey's rules on religion in public life.

And in 1999, he went to prison and in the process became a living martyr to conservative Turks.

He even released an album of poetry, which became a bestseller in the country.

With the wind at his back, he went on to found his political party, the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, in 2001.

The party was not overly Islamist, but instead sought to appeal to a broad, working -class, socially conservative base.

The strategy paid off, big time.

The AKP won a landslide victory in 2002.

They won again comfortably in 2007 and grew their vote shares further in the 2011 general election.

And in 2014, after 11 years as Prime Minister, Erdogan ran to be Turkey's first directly elected president

and won his first five -year term with 51 .8 % of the vote.

Erdogan was riding high on the back of strong economic growth that had significantly benefited his working -class base.

Turkey's poverty rate fell from 42 % in 2003 to around 14 % in 2013

while GDP per capita soared and inequality fell.

But despite his success, he had made enemies.

The 2016 coup attempt made Erdogan paranoid.

Mass arrests followed, with the administration claiming that the coup was plotted from overseas by his former ally Fethullah Gulen,

a charismatic preacher who led an influential

Islamic movement from exile in the US.

Gulen's supporters were aggressively purged from the government.

Since then, Erdogan has progressively centralised power around the presidency, with a referendum in 2017 that shifted the country to a presidential system.

He went beyond the halls of public office and clamped down on media criticism.

Turkey now ranks alongside countries like Belarus and Myanmar for the worst mistreatment of journalists.

It has plunged in global rankings of rule of law, now sitting at 117th worldwide, below even Russia.

However, Erdogan's dominance of Turkish politics is not absolute, and the country still has a semi -functioning democratic process.

He was forced into a second round in the 2023 election as public anger over the economy mounted, but nonetheless ultimately won.

He will now be in power until 2028.

The arrest of Ekram Imamoglu in March 2025 on dubious grounds

is seen by many as the latest step in this democratic decline and Erdogan's boldest move yet to snuff out political opposition.

And the takeaway from Erdogan's story?

He's a populist survivor, casting himself as the voice of a conservative majority against the liberal elite.

At the ballot box, he's almost unbeatable.

But politically, has he really succeeded?

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Now back to the video.

While Erdogan might be a populist, his recent economic moves have not been popular.

His erratic policymaking and assault on institutions has led the country into a full -blown crisis

that is only just starting to recover from.

If you want to look at one statistic that captures the performance of the Turkish economy under Erdogan, look at the value of the lira.

In 2015, one year after Erdogan took the presidency, one US dollar was equal to around three Turkish lira.

Fast forward to today, and one US dollar gives you no less than 41 Turkish lira.

But how did

Turkey get here?

Turkey has long been a high consumption, low savings economy that spends a lot on imports and finances this with overseas borrowing.

Two points stand out.

For one, Turkey has a large and persistent current account deficit, it, meaning that it consistently imports more than it exports.

Though the exact amount fluctuates year on year, if you look closer, you can see what's driving this.

Turkey is a massive net importer of two types of commodity, gold, which households use as a store of value,

and energy, much of it in the form of oil and gas from Russia, Azerbaijan, and other countries in the region.

According to Ministry of Finance data, net energy imports in 2024 stood at $49 billion, while net gold imports were $13 billion.

This current account deficit doesn't just mean that

Turkey imports more than it exports.

It also logically means that

Turkey consumes more than it produces.

100

If it consumes more than it produces, it has to fund this somehow.

101

And it does this through overseas borrowing.

102

And this has been at the core of Erdogan's economic model.

103

Turkey's external debt has climbed steadily over his tenure, rising from 35 % of GDP in 2005 to more than 55 % in 2019,

104

just before the pandemic.

105

Its current external borrowing levels are broadly similar to Argentina's, long considered a case study in how not to run an economy.

106

But here's where it gets a bit more complicated.

107

Turkey's government runs a sizable budget deficit, but government borrowing only accounts for around 23 % of the country's total external debt.

108

Instead, Turkey's overseas borrowing comes through local banks, who borrow it in dollars or euros and then swap it into lira and lend domestically.

109

46 % of the growth in foreign debt since 2005 has come from private sector and state bank borrowing,

110

and a further 33 % from private sector non -bank borrowing.

111

Together, they now account for nearly 70 % of Turkey's foreign debt.

112

Banks lent this money into the economy, which triggered a surge in spending, particularly on real estate and infrastructure.

113

And for a while, this worked out nicely for the Erdogan government.

114

The debt spurge gave the Turkish economy a big boost.

115

Turkish real GDP grew at an average of 5 .8 % from 2003 to 2017,

116

outperforming developing Europe and far better than the eurozone's dismal 1 .1%.

117

But this kind of foreign debt -fueled growth was unsustainable.

118

To keep borrowing at such high levels, a country must ensure foreign investors stay willing to fund the gap.

119

And second, it has to hold up the value of its currency so that this foreign currency -denominated debt remains manageable.

120

Erdogan lost both of these.

121

Things Something started to unravel in 2018 when the foreign investors who had funded his growth model started to get cold feet.

122

Higher levels of foreign borrowing and rising inflation from all

123

that credit -driven spending led into question whether Turkish borrowers would be able to pay off their debts,

124

and whether the central bank would have enough foreign currency reserves to preserve the value of the lira.

125

This loss of confidence started a vicious cycle.

126

The lira lost 40 % of its value against the US dollar in 2018, while inflation peaked at 25 % and economic growth stalled.

127

The central bank was forced to burn down its foreign currency reserves to try

128

and stop the lira falling even further Erdogan's economy was coming off the rails

129

But instead of hitting the brakes, he pushed the accelerator

130

Economics 101 says that when faced with a weakening currency and high inflation

131

The central bank should raise interest rates

132

But Erdogan disagreed

133

In fact, he famously argued the exact opposite

134

Claiming that cutting interest rates actually reduces inflation

135

As inflation continued to surge after the start of the crisis in 2018 Erdogan would not budge.

136

Things got worse and worse.

137

Economic growth slowed to a crawl and unemployment jumped to 13 .7%.

138

This chart tracks inflation against the Turkish central bank's own policy rate.

139

By the start of 2022, annualized inflation had hit 72%,

140

but he refused to allow significant increases in interest rates to try and bring the situation under control control.

141

His unorthodox views brought him into direct conflict with the Turkish Central Bank, which resulted in him sacking four bank governors between 2019 and 2023.

142

Only after the 2023 election did he start to accept reality and allow interest rates to rise.

143

Since then, inflation has started to gradually fall, and foreign borrowing has been wound in a bit.

144

But the road to recovery has been painful.

145

The IMF expects

146

Turkey's economy to grow by 2 .7 % this year versus a global average of 4 .1 % for emerging

147

and developing economies.

148

However, the problem wasn't just Erdogan's crazy monetary policy or his short -term support for debt -fueled growth.

149

It was the damage he has done to the independence of key institutions like the central bank

150

and rule of law that have led

151

Turkish and foreign investors alike to move their capital out of the country.

152

And that is why the markets reacted so badly to the arrest of Imamoglu,

153

because it demonstrated clearly that Erdogan is dismantling institutions the country needs for long -term economic success.

154

Turks may still vote for him, but the truth is simple.

155

He's making the country poorer.

156

Beyond the economy, Erdogan has also sought to reshape

157

Turkish society to make it more religious.

158

The modern Turkish Republic was founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923 on the principle of secularism, the separation of religion and the state,

159

and the exclusion of religious codes from the country's legal system.

160

While Turkey remains constitutionally secular, this distinction has become increasingly blurred under Erdogan.

161

His party, the AKP, draws its large electoral majorities from a lower -income, socially conservative segment of Turkish society.

162

His political strategy has been a populist one, to draw a contrast between a Muslim Turkish population

163

and a secular elite that is out of touch with the traditions of the majority.

164

You can see this in his rhetoric.

165

In 2014, he drew outrage at a summit in Istanbul by saying that

166

Islam had defined women's position in society as motherhood.

167

And he's also repeatedly criticised LGBT activist groups as undermining the country's national and spiritual values, despite homosexuality actually being legal in the country.

168

It's not just speeches.

169

It's also evident in his efforts to peel back laws designed to keep religion out of public life in Turkey.

170

In 2013, he lifted restrictions on religious clothing, most prominently women's headscarves, in Turkish public institutions such as the military and schools.

171

He has tightened the screws on alcohol consumption, outrightly banning the sale of alcohol for a period of time during the pandemic,

172

and more recently requiring producers to put up collateral of up to 50 million lira, then around $1 .7 million to produce alcohol.

173

And he even tried to justify his unconventional views on interest rates

174

that we mentioned earlier by saying that high interest rates were un -Islamic.

175

However, perhaps the clearest insight into Erdogan's Islamic vision is in education.

176

Erdogan has set out to create what he calls a pious generation.

177

To do this, he has sought to dramatically expand a network of government -funded schools called Imam Hatip schools.

178

These schools offer a mixed curriculum of both standard subjects like maths and science and religious education,

179

which can include Arabic, Islamic jurisprudence and studying the Quran.

180

In 2002, when Erdogan's AKP first came to power, there were around 450 such schools in the country.

181

By late 2023, this has surged to around 1 ,700, with a six -fold increase in students.

182

These schools receive a disproportionately large share of government funding.

183

According to a 2018

184

Reuters investigation, they accounted for 23 % of the government's high school spending, despite only representing 11 % of the country's students.

185

And this is expected to continue.

186

According to ABC Gazetesi, a Turkish media outlet, government spending on Imam Hatip schools in 2025 is expected to grow by 51 % on last year,

187

with total funding between now and 2027 to total US $3 .6 billion.

188

US dollars.

189

Now, you could argue this would all make sense if this conservative

190

Islamic agenda reflected the wishes of a significant majority of Turks.

191

But here's the catch.

192

Religiosity in Turkey has actually fallen over his tenure, and according to polling, less than half of the population actually considers itself religious.

193

According to a poll by Kondo Research, the share of Turks identifying as religious has fallen from 55 % in 2008 to 46 % in 2025.

194

And in another poll by Pew Research, 74 % of Turks said that laws should not strictly follow the Quran.

195

So while Erdogan's reinsertion of religion into public life clearly pleases some

196

Turks, he has definitely not created a new national consensus on this issue.

197

The reason Erdogan is talked about so much abroad is not just because of his controversial domestic agenda, it's also because of his assertive foreign policy.

198

Turkey is in a unique position, both geographically and politically.

199

It is a member of NATO and wants to be part of the EU,

200

but Erdogan continually blames the West for Turkey's problems and has strong relations with Russia.

201

Erdogan's defining foreign policy issue has been the conflict across its southern border in Syria, which spiraled into civil war after the 2011 Arab Spring.

202

As president, Erdogan strongly supported the Syrian rebels in their fight to remove Bashar al -Assad.

203

They provided weapons and financing to Syrian opposition groups and launched several military incursions into north

204

East Syria despite outrage from other native members.

205

This was critical.

206

Because when Assad finally fell in 2024, Turkey emerged as one of the main power brokers in the country.

207

Since coming to power in December 2024, Syria's new leader, Ahmed al -Shahra, has made three visits to Turkey, more than any other country.

208

Ankara has already signed a defense support pact with the new government, cementing its influence over Damascus.

209

But Erdogan wasn't solely interested in getting rid of Assad.

210

The Syrian conflict was important for two other key issues.

211

First, Syria's collapse into violence triggered an exodus of refugees refugees, most of whom had to pass through Turkey to get to Europe.

212

At its peak in 2021, Turkey hosted more than 3 .8 million Syrian refugees.

213

And it has generally treated them well.

214

It has built well -equipped camps for them and given them access to healthcare and education.

215

However, the issue gave Erdogan significant leverage over the EU,

216

who were desperate to prevent a large influx of refugees and had to cooperate with Turkey to achieve this.

217

Erdogan used this to extract big concessions from the EU,

218

including 10 billion euros in funding for the refugees and visa -free access for Turks to Europe.

219

Second, the Syrian crisis allowed Erdogan to pursue his domestic objective of stamping out

220

Kurdish separatist movements like the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which would wage a long war against the Turkish government from Syria

221

and Iraq in the hope of establishing a separate Kurdish state.

222

Turkish forces bombed PKK sites in northern Iraq and Syria

223

and claimed to have neutralized nearly 40 ,000 PKK fighters over its 10 -year campaign.

224

Erdogan now appears to have won this battle.

225

In May this year, the PKK announced that they would disband

226

and lay down their arms after backroom talks between Ankara and the gelled leadership of the organisation,

227

creating hope for an end to the long -running conflict.

228

Syria is a microcosm of a broader point.

229

Erdogan has been much more willing to throw

230

Turkey's weight around internationally and has been successful in doing so.

231

Whether leaders in NATO, Brussels or the Middle East like it or not, Turkey now has an important seat at the table.

232

Erdogan has had a colourful career, from working -class kid to mayor and from prisoner to president.

233

He has led the country into economic crisis, eroded its democracy and secular heritage,

234

and at the same time transformed it into a major player on the world stage.

235

He has done this as a populist leader who tapped public discontent and an out -of -touch elite.

236

But with polls suggesting that 67 % of Turks now want an end to the Erdogan era, the roles may be reversing.

237

Erdogan's rise to power was sealed

238

when he was sent to prison as the charismatic mayor of Istanbul who stood against an unpopular government.

239

And now, in seeking to remove his main rival Ekrem İmamolu, he has jailed another charismatic mayor of Istanbul who stands against another unpopular government.

240

As he thinks about the future, Erdogan should look to his own past.

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このレッスンの語彙とスピーキングのポイント

このスピーキングレッスンは、動画「How Erdogan Is Destroying Turkey’s Future」を教材にしています。繰り返し出てくる語は次のとおりです：Erdogan, Turkish, Turkey, foreign。この動画には、シャドーイング用の文が182文、単語が3066語あります。音声の長さは17:55です。話す速さは1分あたり約171語で、日常会話に近い自然なペースです。英語の頻出3,000語に含まれる単語は76%だけなので、語彙は難しめです。

この動画の重要語彙

動画に出てくる覚えておきたい単語15語を、発音と意味つきで紹介します。

単語	発音	意味
inflation 名詞	/ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/	インフレ, インフレーション
currency 名詞	/ˈkʌɹ.ən.si/	通貨, 貨幣
import 名詞	/ˈɪm.pɔɹt/	輸入品
secular 形容詞	/ˈsɛkjʊlə/	世俗的な, 世俗の
overseas 副詞	/ˌoʊvɚˈsiːz/	海外に, 国外に
elite 名詞	/ɪˈlit/	選り抜き, 精鋭
agenda 名詞	/əˈd͡ʒɛn.də/	議題, 議事
deficit 名詞	/ˈdɛfəsɪt/	赤字, 欠損
investor 名詞	/ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/	投資家, 出資者
tenure 名詞	/ˈtɛn.jʊə/	保有
argue 動詞	/ˈɑɹ.ɡju/	議論する, 論ずる
economics 名詞	/ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/	経済学
consumption 名詞	/kənˈsʌmp.ʃən/	消費
fighter 名詞	/ˈfaɪtɚ/	戦士, 武士
trigger 名詞	/ˈtɹɪɡɚ/	引き金, 鉷

動画に出てくる句動詞

単語	発音	意味
pay off 動詞		報われる
fight back 動詞	/faɪt bæk/	巻き返す
lie down 動詞		横になる, 臥す

この動画の文法

話し手がよく使っている文型を、動画の実際の表現とともに紹介します。

文型	動画での表現
現在完了形 have/has + 過去分詞 — 過去の出来事が今も関係している	has been handed · has progressively centralised · has plunged
受動態 be + 過去分詞 — 誰がするかより、何が起きるかに焦点を当てる	is squashed · has been handed · was born

注意したい発音

話し手はwasn't, doesn'tなど、短縮形や弱形を3回使っています。聞こえたとおりの短い形で発音しましょう。

「th」の音: clothing /ˈkloʊðɪŋ/, northeast /noːˈθɪjst/, nonetheless /ˌnʌnðəˈlɛs/
「sh」と「zh」の音: inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, consumption /kənˈsʌmp.ʃən/, socially /ˈsoʊʃəli/, contrast /kənˈt(ʃ)ɹæst/, establish /ɪˈstæb.lɪʃ/
長い単語（アクセントの位置に注意）: economics /ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/, presidency /ˈpɹɛzɪdənsi/, complicated /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/, infrastructure /ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/, establishment /ɪˈstæb.lɪʃ.mənt/

日本語話者が苦手な音：

/r/ と /l/ の区別 — /l/ は舌先を歯茎につけ、/r/ はどこにもつけない: strongly /ˈstɹɔŋli/, spiritual /ˈspɪɹɪt͡ʃuəl/, reflect /ɹɪˈflɛkt/, principle /ˈpɹɪn.sɪ.pəl/, rally /ˈɹæli/
/v/ — /b/ にならないように、上の歯を下唇に当てる: overseas /ˌoʊvɚˈsiːz/, investor /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/, poverty /ˈpɑːvɚti/, objective /ɒbˈd͡ʒɛk.tɪv/, versus /ˈvɝsəs/
/f/ — 「フ」ではなく、上の歯と下唇で出す: inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, deficit /ˈdɛfəsɪt/, fighter /ˈfaɪtɚ/, infrastructure /ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/, reflect /ɹɪˈflɛkt/

この動画での練習方法

まず声を出さずに動画を最後まで聞き、知らない単語をメモします。
まず0.75倍速で一文ずつシャドーイングし、慣れてきたら通常の速度に戻します。
自分の声を録音して元の音声と比べます。inflation, currency, importなどの単語に特に注意しましょう。

シャドーイングとは？英語上達に効果的な理由

シャドーイング（Shadowing）は、もともとプロの通訳者養成プログラムで開発された言語学習法で、多言語習得者として知られるDr. Alexander Arguelles によって広く普及されました。方法はシンプルですが非常に効果的：ネイティブスピーカーの英語を聞きながら、1〜2秒の遅延で声に出してすぐに繰り返す——まるで「影（shadow）」のように話者を追いかけます。文法ドリルや受動的なリスニングと異なり、シャドーイングは脳と口の筋肉が同時にリアルタイムで英語を処理・再現することを強制します。研究により、発音精度、抑揚、リズム、連音、リスニング力、そして会話の流暢さが大幅に向上することが確認されています。IELTSスピーキング対策や自然な英語コミュニケーションを目指す方に特におすすめです。

シャドーイングのやり方: ステップ別の完全ガイドを読む →

シャドーイング練習: How Erdogan Is Destroying Turkey’s Future - 動画で英語スピーキングを学ぶ

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