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July 2016.
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Factions of the Turkish military attempt a coup to remove incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
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Tanks and soldiers fill the streets, fighter jets fly overhead, and the city falls into chaos.
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But Erdogan fights back.
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He FaceTimes into a TV station from a holiday resort and exclaims, there is no power higher than the power of the people.
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His rallying cry moves thousands of ordinary
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Turks to the streets in protest of the military takeover.
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Within a day, Erdogan is back in Istanbul and the coup is squashed.
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Fast forward to today and Turks out in the streets, protesting for democracy again.
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But this time, their hero is Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul.
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İmamoğlu, a rising star and political threat to Erdogan, has been handed a 20 -month sentence and faces charges of corruption and aiding a terror group.
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The news led
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Turkish financial markets to plunge, while police responded to demonstrations with tear gas and rubber bullets, detaining almost 1 ,900 protesters.
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When Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded
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Turkey in 1923, his vision was a modern, secular, democratic nation rejecting the Ottoman past.
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But now, Erdogan seems to be charting a new path.
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Charismatic yet polarizing, he's dominated
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Turkish politics since 2003, backed by a loyal base of working -class conservatives.
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His critics believe he is destroying the economy and taking
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Turkey on a path away from secular democracy and towards religious autocracy.
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This is Erdogan, the new sultan.
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In order to make sense of Erdogan's provocative agenda, we need to understand his rise to power.
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Erdogan was born into a working -class conservative family in 1954 and attended a religious high school in Istanbul.
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After graduating, he went almost directly into politics,
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joining several Islamist parties and entering parliament for the first time in 1986 as a representative of a district of Istanbul.
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His big break came in 1994 when he surprised the political establishment by winning the Istanbul mayoral election.
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Over his four -year tenure, he was generally viewed as an effective mayor of the city.
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Then 1999 happened.
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He was jailed for reciting an Islamic poem at a 1997 rally, a violation of Turkey's rules on religion in public life.
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And in 1999, he went to prison and in the process became a living martyr to conservative Turks.
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He even released an album of poetry, which became a bestseller in the country.
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With the wind at his back, he went on to found his political party, the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, in 2001.
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The party was not overly Islamist, but instead sought to appeal to a broad, working -class, socially conservative base.
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The strategy paid off, big time.
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The AKP won a landslide victory in 2002.
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They won again comfortably in 2007 and grew their vote shares further in the 2011 general election.
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And in 2014, after 11 years as Prime Minister, Erdogan ran to be Turkey's first directly elected president
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and won his first five -year term with 51 .8 % of the vote.
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Erdogan was riding high on the back of strong economic growth that had significantly benefited his working -class base.
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Turkey's poverty rate fell from 42 % in 2003 to around 14 % in 2013
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while GDP per capita soared and inequality fell.
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But despite his success, he had made enemies.
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The 2016 coup attempt made Erdogan paranoid.
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Mass arrests followed, with the administration claiming that the coup was plotted from overseas by his former ally Fethullah Gulen,
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a charismatic preacher who led an influential
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Islamic movement from exile in the US.
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Gulen's supporters were aggressively purged from the government.
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Since then, Erdogan has progressively centralised power around the presidency, with a referendum in 2017 that shifted the country to a presidential system.
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He went beyond the halls of public office and clamped down on media criticism.
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Turkey now ranks alongside countries like Belarus and Myanmar for the worst mistreatment of journalists.
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It has plunged in global rankings of rule of law, now sitting at 117th worldwide, below even Russia.
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However, Erdogan's dominance of Turkish politics is not absolute, and the country still has a semi -functioning democratic process.
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He was forced into a second round in the 2023 election as public anger over the economy mounted, but nonetheless ultimately won.
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He will now be in power until 2028.
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The arrest of Ekram Imamoglu in March 2025 on dubious grounds
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is seen by many as the latest step in this democratic decline and Erdogan's boldest move yet to snuff out political opposition.
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And the takeaway from Erdogan's story?
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He's a populist survivor, casting himself as the voice of a conservative majority against the liberal elite.
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At the ballot box, he's almost unbeatable.
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But politically, has he really succeeded?
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Now back to the video.
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While Erdogan might be a populist, his recent economic moves have not been popular.
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His erratic policymaking and assault on institutions has led the country into a full -blown crisis
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that is only just starting to recover from.
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If you want to look at one statistic that captures the performance of the Turkish economy under Erdogan, look at the value of the lira.
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In 2015, one year after Erdogan took the presidency, one US dollar was equal to around three Turkish lira.
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Fast forward to today, and one US dollar gives you no less than 41 Turkish lira.
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But how did
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Turkey get here?
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Turkey has long been a high consumption, low savings economy that spends a lot on imports and finances this with overseas borrowing.
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Two points stand out.
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For one, Turkey has a large and persistent current account deficit, it, meaning that it consistently imports more than it exports.
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Though the exact amount fluctuates year on year, if you look closer, you can see what's driving this.
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Turkey is a massive net importer of two types of commodity, gold, which households use as a store of value,
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and energy, much of it in the form of oil and gas from Russia, Azerbaijan, and other countries in the region.
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According to Ministry of Finance data, net energy imports in 2024 stood at $49 billion, while net gold imports were $13 billion.
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This current account deficit doesn't just mean that
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Turkey imports more than it exports.
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It also logically means that
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Turkey consumes more than it produces.
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If it consumes more than it produces, it has to fund this somehow.
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And it does this through overseas borrowing.
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And this has been at the core of Erdogan's economic model.
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Turkey's external debt has climbed steadily over his tenure, rising from 35 % of GDP in 2005 to more than 55 % in 2019,
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just before the pandemic.
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Its current external borrowing levels are broadly similar to Argentina's, long considered a case study in how not to run an economy.
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But here's where it gets a bit more complicated.
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Turkey's government runs a sizable budget deficit, but government borrowing only accounts for around 23 % of the country's total external debt.
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Instead, Turkey's overseas borrowing comes through local banks, who borrow it in dollars or euros and then swap it into lira and lend domestically.
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46 % of the growth in foreign debt since 2005 has come from private sector and state bank borrowing,
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and a further 33 % from private sector non -bank borrowing.
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Together, they now account for nearly 70 % of Turkey's foreign debt.
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Banks lent this money into the economy, which triggered a surge in spending, particularly on real estate and infrastructure.
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And for a while, this worked out nicely for the Erdogan government.
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The debt spurge gave the Turkish economy a big boost.
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Turkish real GDP grew at an average of 5 .8 % from 2003 to 2017,
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outperforming developing Europe and far better than the eurozone's dismal 1 .1%.
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But this kind of foreign debt -fueled growth was unsustainable.
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To keep borrowing at such high levels, a country must ensure foreign investors stay willing to fund the gap.
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And second, it has to hold up the value of its currency so that this foreign currency -denominated debt remains manageable.
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Erdogan lost both of these.
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Things Something started to unravel in 2018 when the foreign investors who had funded his growth model started to get cold feet.
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Higher levels of foreign borrowing and rising inflation from all
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that credit -driven spending led into question whether Turkish borrowers would be able to pay off their debts,
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and whether the central bank would have enough foreign currency reserves to preserve the value of the lira.
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This loss of confidence started a vicious cycle.
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The lira lost 40 % of its value against the US dollar in 2018, while inflation peaked at 25 % and economic growth stalled.
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The central bank was forced to burn down its foreign currency reserves to try
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and stop the lira falling even further Erdogan's economy was coming off the rails
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But instead of hitting the brakes, he pushed the accelerator
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Economics 101 says that when faced with a weakening currency and high inflation
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The central bank should raise interest rates
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But Erdogan disagreed
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In fact, he famously argued the exact opposite
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Claiming that cutting interest rates actually reduces inflation
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As inflation continued to surge after the start of the crisis in 2018 Erdogan would not budge.
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Things got worse and worse.
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Economic growth slowed to a crawl and unemployment jumped to 13 .7%.
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This chart tracks inflation against the Turkish central bank's own policy rate.
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By the start of 2022, annualized inflation had hit 72%,
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but he refused to allow significant increases in interest rates to try and bring the situation under control control.
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His unorthodox views brought him into direct conflict with the Turkish Central Bank, which resulted in him sacking four bank governors between 2019 and 2023.
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Only after the 2023 election did he start to accept reality and allow interest rates to rise.
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Since then, inflation has started to gradually fall, and foreign borrowing has been wound in a bit.
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But the road to recovery has been painful.
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The IMF expects
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Turkey's economy to grow by 2 .7 % this year versus a global average of 4 .1 % for emerging
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and developing economies.
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However, the problem wasn't just Erdogan's crazy monetary policy or his short -term support for debt -fueled growth.
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It was the damage he has done to the independence of key institutions like the central bank
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and rule of law that have led
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Turkish and foreign investors alike to move their capital out of the country.
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And that is why the markets reacted so badly to the arrest of Imamoglu,
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because it demonstrated clearly that Erdogan is dismantling institutions the country needs for long -term economic success.
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Turks may still vote for him, but the truth is simple.
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He's making the country poorer.
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Beyond the economy, Erdogan has also sought to reshape
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Turkish society to make it more religious.
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The modern Turkish Republic was founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923 on the principle of secularism, the separation of religion and the state,
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and the exclusion of religious codes from the country's legal system.
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While Turkey remains constitutionally secular, this distinction has become increasingly blurred under Erdogan.
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His party, the AKP, draws its large electoral majorities from a lower -income, socially conservative segment of Turkish society.
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His political strategy has been a populist one, to draw a contrast between a Muslim Turkish population
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and a secular elite that is out of touch with the traditions of the majority.
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You can see this in his rhetoric.
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In 2014, he drew outrage at a summit in Istanbul by saying that
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Islam had defined women's position in society as motherhood.
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And he's also repeatedly criticised LGBT activist groups as undermining the country's national and spiritual values, despite homosexuality actually being legal in the country.
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It's not just speeches.
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It's also evident in his efforts to peel back laws designed to keep religion out of public life in Turkey.
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In 2013, he lifted restrictions on religious clothing, most prominently women's headscarves, in Turkish public institutions such as the military and schools.
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He has tightened the screws on alcohol consumption, outrightly banning the sale of alcohol for a period of time during the pandemic,
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and more recently requiring producers to put up collateral of up to 50 million lira, then around $1 .7 million to produce alcohol.
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And he even tried to justify his unconventional views on interest rates
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that we mentioned earlier by saying that high interest rates were un -Islamic.
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However, perhaps the clearest insight into Erdogan's Islamic vision is in education.
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Erdogan has set out to create what he calls a pious generation.
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To do this, he has sought to dramatically expand a network of government -funded schools called Imam Hatip schools.
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These schools offer a mixed curriculum of both standard subjects like maths and science and religious education,
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which can include Arabic, Islamic jurisprudence and studying the Quran.
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In 2002, when Erdogan's AKP first came to power, there were around 450 such schools in the country.
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By late 2023, this has surged to around 1 ,700, with a six -fold increase in students.
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These schools receive a disproportionately large share of government funding.
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According to a 2018
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Reuters investigation, they accounted for 23 % of the government's high school spending, despite only representing 11 % of the country's students.
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And this is expected to continue.
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According to ABC Gazetesi, a Turkish media outlet, government spending on Imam Hatip schools in 2025 is expected to grow by 51 % on last year,
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with total funding between now and 2027 to total US $3 .6 billion.
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US dollars.
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Now, you could argue this would all make sense if this conservative
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Islamic agenda reflected the wishes of a significant majority of Turks.
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But here's the catch.
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Religiosity in Turkey has actually fallen over his tenure, and according to polling, less than half of the population actually considers itself religious.
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According to a poll by Kondo Research, the share of Turks identifying as religious has fallen from 55 % in 2008 to 46 % in 2025.
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And in another poll by Pew Research, 74 % of Turks said that laws should not strictly follow the Quran.
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So while Erdogan's reinsertion of religion into public life clearly pleases some
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Turks, he has definitely not created a new national consensus on this issue.
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The reason Erdogan is talked about so much abroad is not just because of his controversial domestic agenda, it's also because of his assertive foreign policy.
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Turkey is in a unique position, both geographically and politically.
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It is a member of NATO and wants to be part of the EU,
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but Erdogan continually blames the West for Turkey's problems and has strong relations with Russia.
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Erdogan's defining foreign policy issue has been the conflict across its southern border in Syria, which spiraled into civil war after the 2011 Arab Spring.
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As president, Erdogan strongly supported the Syrian rebels in their fight to remove Bashar al -Assad.
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They provided weapons and financing to Syrian opposition groups and launched several military incursions into north
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East Syria despite outrage from other native members.
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This was critical.
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Because when Assad finally fell in 2024, Turkey emerged as one of the main power brokers in the country.
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Since coming to power in December 2024, Syria's new leader, Ahmed al -Shahra, has made three visits to Turkey, more than any other country.
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Ankara has already signed a defense support pact with the new government, cementing its influence over Damascus.
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But Erdogan wasn't solely interested in getting rid of Assad.
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The Syrian conflict was important for two other key issues.
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First, Syria's collapse into violence triggered an exodus of refugees refugees, most of whom had to pass through Turkey to get to Europe.
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At its peak in 2021, Turkey hosted more than 3 .8 million Syrian refugees.
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And it has generally treated them well.
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It has built well -equipped camps for them and given them access to healthcare and education.
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However, the issue gave Erdogan significant leverage over the EU,
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who were desperate to prevent a large influx of refugees and had to cooperate with Turkey to achieve this.
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Erdogan used this to extract big concessions from the EU,
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including 10 billion euros in funding for the refugees and visa -free access for Turks to Europe.
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Second, the Syrian crisis allowed Erdogan to pursue his domestic objective of stamping out
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Kurdish separatist movements like the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which would wage a long war against the Turkish government from Syria
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and Iraq in the hope of establishing a separate Kurdish state.
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Turkish forces bombed PKK sites in northern Iraq and Syria
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and claimed to have neutralized nearly 40 ,000 PKK fighters over its 10 -year campaign.
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Erdogan now appears to have won this battle.
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In May this year, the PKK announced that they would disband
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and lay down their arms after backroom talks between Ankara and the gelled leadership of the organisation,
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creating hope for an end to the long -running conflict.
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Syria is a microcosm of a broader point.
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Erdogan has been much more willing to throw
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Turkey's weight around internationally and has been successful in doing so.
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Whether leaders in NATO, Brussels or the Middle East like it or not, Turkey now has an important seat at the table.
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Erdogan has had a colourful career, from working -class kid to mayor and from prisoner to president.
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He has led the country into economic crisis, eroded its democracy and secular heritage,
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and at the same time transformed it into a major player on the world stage.
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He has done this as a populist leader who tapped public discontent and an out -of -touch elite.
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But with polls suggesting that 67 % of Turks now want an end to the Erdogan era, the roles may be reversing.
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Erdogan's rise to power was sealed
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when he was sent to prison as the charismatic mayor of Istanbul who stood against an unpopular government.
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And now, in seeking to remove his main rival Ekrem İmamolu, he has jailed another charismatic mayor of Istanbul who stands against another unpopular government.
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As he thinks about the future, Erdogan should look to his own past.
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Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione
Questa lezione di conversazione si basa sul video “How Erdogan Is Destroying Turkey’s Future”. Le parole che ritornano più spesso: Erdogan, Turkish, Turkey, foreign. Questo video contiene 182 frasi e 3066 parole da ripetere con lo shadowing. Il parlato dura 17:55. Chi parla ha un ritmo naturale di circa 171 parole al minuto, vicino a una conversazione quotidiana. Solo il 76% delle parole rientra nelle 3.000 più comuni dell’inglese, quindi il lessico è impegnativo.
Vocaboli chiave di questo video
15 parole del video che vale la pena imparare, con pronuncia e significato:
| Parola | Pronuncia | Significato |
|---|---|---|
| inflation sostantivo | /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/ | inflazione |
| currency sostantivo | /ˈkʌɹ.ən.si/ | valuta |
| import sostantivo | /ˈɪm.pɔɹt/ | importazione |
| secular aggettivo | /ˈsɛkjʊlə/ | secolare, laico |
| overseas avverbio | /ˌoʊvɚˈsiːz/ | all'estero |
| elite sostantivo | /ɪˈlit/ | élite |
| poll sostantivo | /poʊl/ | sondaggio |
| agenda sostantivo | /əˈd͡ʒɛn.də/ | agenda |
| deficit sostantivo | /ˈdɛfəsɪt/ | deficit, disavanzo |
| investor sostantivo | /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ | investitore, investitrice |
| tenure sostantivo | /ˈtɛn.jʊə/ | essere titolare, permanenza in carica |
| argue verbo | /ˈɑɹ.ɡju/ | discutere, dibattere |
| economics sostantivo | /ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/ | economia |
| consumption sostantivo | /kənˈsʌmp.ʃən/ | consumo |
| fighter sostantivo | /ˈfaɪtɚ/ | combattente, lottatore |
I phrasal verb che sentirai
| Parola | Pronuncia | Significato |
|---|---|---|
| pay off verbo | corrompere | |
| fight back verbo | /faɪt bæk/ | difendersi, contrastare |
| hold up verbo | ritardare, rallentare | |
| lie down verbo | sdraiarsi, distendersi | |
| pass through verbo | trapassare | |
| put up verbo | collocare |
La grammatica di questo video
Le strutture che chi parla usa di più, con le parole esatte del video:
| Struttura | Nel video |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + participio passato — un’azione passata che conta ancora adesso | has been handed · has progressively centralised · has plunged |
| Forma passiva be + participio passato — conta ciò che accade, non chi lo fa | is squashed · has been handed · was born |
Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione
Chi parla usa 3 contrazioni e forme ridotte, come wasn't, doesn't. Pronunciale nella forma breve, così come le senti.
- I suoni “th”: clothing /ˈkloʊðɪŋ/, northeast /noːˈθɪjst/, nonetheless /ˌnʌnðəˈlɛs/
- I suoni “sh” e “zh”: inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, consumption /kənˈsʌmp.ʃən/, socially /ˈsoʊʃəli/, contrast /kənˈt(ʃ)ɹæst/, establish /ɪˈstæb.lɪʃ/
- Parole lunghe — attenzione all’accento: economics /ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/, presidency /ˈpɹɛzɪdənsi/, complicated /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/, infrastructure /ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/, establishment /ɪˈstæb.lɪʃ.mənt/
I suoni difficili per chi parla italiano:
- /h/ — va soffiata, non è muta: household /ˈhaʊshoʊld/, heritage /ˈhɛɹ.ɪ.tɪd͡ʒ/
- Consonante finale — senza aggiungere una vocale dopo: import /ˈɪm.pɔɹt/, overseas /ˌoʊvɚˈsiːz/, elite /ɪˈlit/, deficit /ˈdɛfəsɪt/, economics /ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/
- /æ/ — più aperta della “e”: contrast /kənˈt(ʃ)ɹæst/, establish /ɪˈstæb.lɪʃ/, badly /ˈbæd.li/, rank /ˈɹæŋk/, anger /ˈæŋɡə/
Come esercitarsi con questo video
- Ascolta tutto il video una volta senza parlare e annota le parole che non conosci.
- Inizia a velocità 0,75×, fai shadowing frase per frase e torna alla velocità normale quando diventa facile.
- Registrati e confronta con l’originale, facendo attenzione a parole come inflation, currency, import.
Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?
Shadowing è una tecnica di apprendimento delle lingue supportata da studi scientifici, originariamente sviluppata per la formazione dei traduttori professionisti e resa popolare dal poliglotta Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Il metodo è semplice ma potente: ascolti un audio in inglese di madrelingua e lo ripeti immediatamente ad alta voce — come un'ombra che segue il parlante con un ritardo di solo 1–2 secondi. A differenza dell'ascolto passivo o degli esercizi di grammatica, lo shadowing costringe il tuo cervello e i muscoli della bocca a elaborare e riprodurre simultaneamente i modelli di discorso reale. La ricerca dimostra che migliora significativamente la precisione della pronuncia, l'intonazione, il ritmo, il discorso connesso, la comprensione dell'ascolto e la fluidità del parlato — rendendolo uno dei metodi più efficaci per la preparazione alla prova di speaking dell'IELTS e per la comunicazione reale in inglese.