쉐도잉 연습: Carnival Scam Science (and how to WIN) - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기

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(lively carnival music) - 11 feet.

11 feet. It's no secret that carnivals exist to make money.

And to do that most effectively, they employ a bunch of little tricks to make you overestimate your chances of winning, in some cases to such an extent that it's basically a scam.

So I spent a couple days coming down to this amusement park and observing and collecting data on all of the carnival games.

So today I'm gonna tell you which games are the biggest ripoffs and the scientific reasons why.

I even Nancy Drewed how much the carnival actually pays for the prizes that people can win.

But there is hope, because I'll also show you some legitimate tricks on how to win the most popular games, along with what happens when you show up to the carnival with your professional baseball playing buddy who happens to play for the New York Mets.

(bell chiming) (balls thudding) (upbeat music) Let's get started.

(upbeat music) Any kind of legitimate investigation needs to start with solid data as the foundation.

So with the promise of unlimited churros, I had some friends secretly help me collect data on all 24 Carnival games for a full day.

Not only did we capture how many times each game was played, but we also recorded how many times people actually won each game and the prize they won.

And so the first observation based on the data we collected is that this relatively small park collects $20,000 a day off their carnival games alone.

So to help frame the rest of the observations, we'll divide the games into three groups.

The first group you've got the Random Chance Games, games like these where no skill is involved and you're basically just rolling dice.

And for the second group, you have your skill-based games like the basketball shot or the milk bottle throw or the basket toss game, where if you bring some kind of skill or strategy to the table, you can increase your chances of winning.

And the final category are the games that are pretty much impossible.

These ones are borderline scams.

There are three games in this category that lots of people attempted and nobody won.

And if they did win, like in the case of the ladder climb, it was for a very specific reason which I will address later.

So let's start by talking about the Random Chance games.

Calculating your chance of winning here is pretty straightforward.

You just divide the winning outcomes by the total outcomes and you get a percentage.

So in this case, there are about 1600 total cups and 160 winning cups.

So that's a 10% chance or will one in 10 throws will win.

There are a ton of games similar to this but the catch is they always use balls that are lightweight and have a high coefficient of restitution, meaning they bounce really well off things.

This makes it much less likely the ball will end up where you originally aimed at.

To illustrate this point, think how much easier this game would be with bean bags which are heavier and don't bounce.

With a ping pong ball, however, any imperfection in the aim of your original throw is magnified which essentially randomizes things.

If you have no skills, these are the games that you want to play.

But don't get too excited because even when you win, you lose.

After some investigative work, I uncovered the source where they ordered their prizes from.

And so even if you got lucky and won on your first throw, it would cost you a $1.50 for a prize that cost them 45 cents, but you usually don't get it on your first try.

So treating this as an expected value problem in statistics, it would take you an average of five times to land it in a yellow cup, which means you pay $7.50 for something that costs them 45 cents.

In the case of the big prize, by landing it in the super rare gold cup, it's even worse.

It would take you an average of 25 tries, which works out to $38 for something that costs them six bucks.

And I'll add the number of people we observed winning matched up pretty well with these statistical predictions.

Now let's talk about the second group which are the skill-based games.

And one of the most popular in this category is the basketball toss with 825 plays the day that we observed.

Now standard three pointer is 24 feet back on a rim that is 10 feet off the ground.

But in this case, the line is 28 feet back on a rim that is 11 feet off the ground, which is subtle.

But if you have a deadly three-pointer locked into your muscle memory, you will tend to miss short, which is exactly what we saw a bunch.

The reason they have the big slope tarp in front is so that someone can't stand directly underneath the rim where the height difference would be much more apparent.

And here again, even if you go Steph Curry and drain your first $3 shot, you still lose, because they only paid 80 cents for that basketball.

Here's another example of getting you to overestimate your chances of winning by making subtle changes, because the table is slanted up slightly, which will reduce the horizontal velocity of the ball after the bounce.

So even if you dominated this game all through college, your previous experience almost becomes a handicap.

This measure, your pitch speed game is borderline fraudulent as their radar gun registers about 15 miles an hour too slow.

And I know this because I measured the distance and then recorded in high speed and counted the frames.

This pitch was clocked at 69 miles per hour, but it's much closer to 84.

For the milk bottle game, the only catch here is the bottles are metal and therefore heavier and more stable and harder to knock down than a typical bottle of that size.

I've seen some carnivals though, where these are bottom weighted, which would make them more steady and thus less likely to tip.

To figure out which kind you have, you can ask to hold it.

And the point at which it balances on your finger is the center of mass.

The key to winning this game is hitting them right here with a hard enough throw to introduce sufficient kinetic energy.

But don't throw it too hard, because we notice those who threw their hardest usually sacrificed on accuracy.

About one in 14 people knock this over on their first try.

And then finally, we have the basket toss game and the key here is to have your first bounce hit on this front lip to reduce the kinetic energy enough that it won't bounce back out.

About one in 10 throws will win on this game according to our observations.

And now this brings us to the final category of the near impossible games, and there are three of them.

On this first one, the goal is to shoot out this red star completely with this automatic BB gun.

So the best strategy is to basically shoot a circle around the star to cut it out.

Not only are the guns not accurate or precise, but the bigger issue is that you start out doing really well because there's enough surrounding paper for the baby to easily rip through like this.

But Newton's third law tells us that you can only push on something as hard as it can resist your push.

So at the end you have these barely supported pieces of the star that just move out of the way when the BB comes without building up enough stress to rip the paper.

Out of 120 plays we saw no win this game all day.

The spring bottle game is also impossibly difficult.

Again, it's a lightweight object that's really bouncy to encourage randomness but the actual inner diameter of the ring is really close to the outer diameter of the bottle.

This means that any throw besides this pretty much perfect one will send the ring bouncing away without settling in on the bottle.

If you really want this bear, I suggest going on Amazon and getting it for $47.

I literally can't tell you how much money this will save you because of the 840 rings we saw thrown, none stayed on a bottle, which brings up sort of an obvious rule of thumb.

If you want the feeling of winning a game, do not stop at any booth that offers really big prizes.

And for the final near impossible game, let me reiterate that as a carnival owner, the most lucrative games are those which the customers overestimate their chances of success.

No game is a better example of that than the ladder climb.

There's a subtle issue with this game that I think people realize, but don't internalize the significance.

The ladder converges to be supported on the wall at one point instead of two.

If it was attached at two points, it's like crawling across a rope bridge, which is pretty easy.

Let's pretend this is you.

And if you shrunk all the weight of your body down to the average location, we call that spot the center of mass which will mark with this dot.

And once again, we can double check this is the right spot because it balances perfectly on one finger.

If you draw imaginary lines connecting the different support points, that creates an area.

and as long as your center of mass dot is within that area, it's impossible to fall off.

But as soon as your center of mass dot is even a little bit outside of the area of support you start to rotate and fall off.

And this is true no matter which way you orient it.

If you've ever bent over to pick something up, you actually know this fact, whether you realize it or not.

In this case, the region of support is between the back of your heels and the tips of your toes.

When you reach over, you will naturally move your butt back to keep your center of mass in between those support points.

And if you don't believe me try picking something up while standing against the wall so you can't move your butt back.

At the very moment your center of mass gets beyond your toes, you start to tip over.

In the case of the ladder game, you're only connected at one point.

So even though it looks wide because the ladder rungs, that area of support reduces down to a line.

So if you don't keep your center of mass directly above that line, you will start to rotate and fall off.

In other words, to win this game, you basically need to be able to crawl across a tight rope.

And you might think, well, I can do a slack line, so I can do this.

But a slack line is actually much easier for two reasons.

You can flail your arms and legs out to adjust your center of mass to keep it directly above that line of support.

And your center of mass is higher, increasing your mass moment of inertia, making you more stable.

In the same way it's easier to balance this umbrella when it's extended versus when it's collapsed.

So while there are a few videos that say tricks like maintain three points of contact, they're all basically useless because keeping your center of mass directly above a line is just something you have to get a feel for.

That takes a lot of practice.

But once you've had enough practice, this is the one game at the carnival that's basically all skill so you can win every time and clean them out.

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Unfortunately, the carnival owners know this, which is why it's also the only game with this super lame caveat.

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So now that we we're carnival experts, I called to my buddy Matt Winaker, who was recently just drafted to play baseball for the New York Mets to maximize our chances of winning any skill game that had to do with throwing.

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(upbeat music) So clearly, Matt had a deadly lock on any throwing game, but basketball is more my game.

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So to finish off the day, I decided I would bring his ego back into check.

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But as it turns out, if you are a world-class athlete in one sport you are a really, really good athlete in all sports.

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So in conclusion, you should play the games if you think they're fun, just know the odds are heavily stacked against you.

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So if you lose, its NBD, unlike this guy who lost his entire life savings playing carnival games, and if your motivation is to gain the love and admiration of someone's special via a stuffed animal like this, you don't need carnival games to do that.

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Amazon works totally just as well.

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I just bought this for you, my lady.

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- Why? (upbeat music)

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