쉐도잉 연습: The Last Human – A Glimpse Into The Far Future - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기
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The future of humanity seems insecure.
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Rapid climate change, political division, our greed and failings make it hard to look at our species with a lot of optimism
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and so many people think our end is in sight.
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But humans have always thought they lived in the end times.
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Every generation assumes they're important enough to witness the apocalypse and then life just goes on.
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This is a problem because it leads to short-term thinking
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and prevents us from creating the best world for ourselves and our descendants.
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What makes this worse is that we may actually be living at an extremely critical moment in human history.
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To understand why, let's look at the temporal window of humanity and ask,
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when will the last human be born and how many people will there ever be?
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These sorts of estimates come with a lot of uncertainties, so please take them with a gigantic grain of salt.
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To get a sense of how many people there will be, let's see how many people have already lived.
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Modern humans arose some 200,000 years ago.
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They were uniquely good at making tools, telling stories, thinking abstractly, planning and working together in large groups beyond their close family.
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Still, there were not that many of us.
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Supplices of food were scarce, survival was hard, life expectancy was low.
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It took us 150,000 years to grow to a population of 2 million.
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Improvements were gradual and eventually led to the agricultural revolution, arguably the biggest change in our history.
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This was when our numbers really started growing.
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It took 10,000 more years to get to 300 million.
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But that increase was dwarfed by the industrial revolution.
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1800 there were a billion of us.
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The human population doubled in just 120 years and then again in 50.
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Today we number around 8 billion.
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In total, over the last 200,000 years, about 117 billion humans were born and lived and 109 billion also died.
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Which means that about 7% of all humans that ever lived are alive right now.
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As many as were born in the first 150,000 years of human history.
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Every minute, 270 babies join the party.
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But there aren't just more people, never before have we been as healthy and well-off, or lived longer.
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With growing living standards, our birth rates collapsed.
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The UN estimates that around the year 2100, we will hit our population peak and there will be 125 million people born each year.
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It's pretty unlikely that birth rates will stay stable forever, but let's pretend to make our thought experiment simpler.
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How many people there will be in the future depends on when our species will die out.
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And here, we find a lot of uncertainties.
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We are able to destroy ourselves through our own inventions, but we are also able to find solutions to avert catastrophic risk.
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We can change the direction of planet killer asteroids, but we've also invented nuclear weapons.
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We discovered antibiotics, but also carry diseases across the globe in a matter of days.
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Our industrial system gives us an incredible standard of living, but also change the atmosphere in the process.
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It's very hard to say if human ingenuity will prolong or shorten our species lifespan.
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If things go badly, our end could come suddenly.
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But if we manage to avoid that, we could conceivably stick around for a long time.
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So every day we don't destroy ourselves may mean life for an unfathomable number of humans.
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How many people are we talking about?
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It depends on how far our species is going to expand.
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Scenario 1.
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Humans will never leave Earth.
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If we stay on our home planet, a good metric to look at is the extinction rate of animals that we get from the fossil record.
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The average lifespan of mammalian species is in the region of 1 million years, with some surviving up to 10 million years.
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Our close relative Homo erectus survived for about 1.9 million years.
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Let's be conservative and assume that humans will survive for a million years, which leaves us 800,000 more years to dawdle away.
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Assuming a stable birth rate of 125 million people each year, this means there are roughly 100 trillion humans waiting to be born.
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850 times greater than the number of people that have ever lived.
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This would make everybody alive today only 0.008% of all people that will ever live.
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Think about where this leaves you.
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Instead of putting you at the end of the chaotic mess that was our past, it would mean you live at the very beginning of something big.
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The start of the human story rather than the end.
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Doesn't this feel incredibly different?
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And now, consider that this may be an extremely pessimistic estimate.
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If we match the survival time of the most successful mammals, then our future numbers rise to 1.2 quadrillion people that have yet to be born.
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And even this seems far from our potential.
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As the Sun slowly gets hotter and brighter, Earth will remain habitable for about 500 million years,
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giving so many more potential people the chance to become actual people.
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And now, let's begin to think big.
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Scenario 2.
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Humans will leave Earth.
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We went from humans worshipping the Moon to humans walking on it, so who knows how much further we can go.
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If we don't die out within the next few hundred years, ideas that seem outlandish right now become serious considerations.
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If we believe that we have a chance of surviving for maybe millions of years, then we could expand onto the other planets or into our own artificial worlds.
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Life needs three things, a surface, resources and energy.
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Our Sun provides energy for billions of years, and there is so much water and material floating in the asteroid
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and Kuiper belt that we could sustain many times our current population.
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Instead of living on planets, we could decide to construct our own artificial worlds and habitats.
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With resources and energy so abundant, we could try out different types of society and ways of life.
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An interconnected civilization spanning the solar system would create the basis of existence for an absurd number of individuals, orders of magnitude more than if we stick to Earth,
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even if we only existed for a few million years.
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This future doesn't have to be grim and dark as science fiction likes to paint it.
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With quadrillions of people waiting to be born, we will have billions of doctors working on curing cancer, billions of problem solvers working on ending poverty,
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and billions of video game developers making life fun.
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humans may actually mean more progress.
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Another upside of leaving Earth and spreading out is
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that it becomes much harder for us to become extinct as you need a solar system-wide catastrophe to catch everybody.
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So aside from nearby supernovae or gamma-ray bursts, humanity would be relatively safe from extinction, maybe for billions of years.
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If we managed to survive for that long, slow evolution or genetic engineering might split us into multiple species,
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or we might intentionally keep ourselves the same as we are now.
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So to account for that, we'll just talk about people from now on, instead of humans.
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Ok, now let's think really big.
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Scenario 3.
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People leave the solar system.
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As enormous as the solar system is, it is just one star system among billions in the Milky Way.
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If future people can colonize say 100 billion stars and live there for 10 billion years, with each generating 100 million births per year,
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then we can expect something like a 100 octillion lives to be lived in the future.
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This is a one with 29 zeros.
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100,000 trillion trillion.
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We can spin this up as much as we like.
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The Andromeda galaxy will merge with the Milky Way, adding another trillion stars for us to settle.
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Dwarfs stay active for up to a trillion years, and future civilizations might even find energy for their habitats around black holes.
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A sufficiently advanced civilization of our descendants might even try to reach other galaxy groups.
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While these numbers are mind-blowing, they may underestimate the number of unborn people by many orders of magnitude.
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If we divide the total energy available in a galaxy by the average energy needs of a single person, then we get a tridicillion potential lives.
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A million, trillion, trillion, trillion potential people.
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Hopefully what's become evident is that if we don't kill ourselves in the next few centuries or millennia, almost all humans that will ever exist will live in the future.
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Which brings us back to us in the present.
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We exist at a high point in human history, with incredible possibilities at our grasp.
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Technological, environmental, and societal.
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What we do matters for all the people who do not exist yet.
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So while it's not en vogue to think about humanity's long-term future with optimism, or to think about it at all, maybe this has given you a bit of perspective.
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If we screw up the present, so many people may never come to exist.
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quadrillions of unborn humans are at our mercy.
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Even if we go with fairly conservative estimates, the unborn are by far the largest group of people and the most disenfranchised.
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Somebody who might be born in a thousand or even a million years deeply depends on us today for their existence.
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This is why it's important to think about the distant future and why our presence is so crucial, why it matters what we do today.
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One day the last human will be born.
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We don't know when. But
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if we change our perspective from us living at the end of the human story to us living at the very beginning, we can not only build a wonderful world for us and for them,
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but also for countless numbers of others.
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Huge announcement!
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We're launching Kurzgesagt in six more languages.
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Arabic, Brazilian Portuguese, French, Hindi, Japanese and Korean on top of our English, German and Spanish channels.
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Bringing new perspectives and a love for science to as many people as possible.
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Especially to some languages that are underserved because it's not profitable to translate to.
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If enough people watch our new channels, we can hopefully run them for many years to come.
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This is where we need your help.
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It takes us a lot of time, effort and yes, money to translate our videos properly and run so many channels.
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So to make this sustainable, please help us spread the word.
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If you're native in one of these languages, share our videos on social media and tell your friends and family.
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Make people in your native language aware that it exists.
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This multi-language expansion is supported by Open Philanthropy, an organization that tries to do as much good as possible.
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They want to help us spread awareness of science and ideas for how you can help humanity thrive.
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Their values align with ours in many fundamental ways, so we are going to work with them on more projects in the future.
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So please help us spread the word.
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And thank you for watching.
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We'll see
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you next time.
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이 비디오는 누구를 위한 것인가요?
영어 회화 실력 향상을 목표로 하며, 특히 IELTS 스피킹 준비생이나 "shadow speak" 연습을 시작하고 싶은 중급 이상 학습자에게 적합합니다. 미래에 대한 깊은 생각을 담은 이 비디오는 논리적인 발화 구조와 다양한 어휘를 배울 수 있는 기회를 제공해줍니다. 긴 문장을 자연스럽게 말하는 법과 추상적인 주제를 다루는 표현력을 키우고 싶다면 이 영상을 놓치지 마세요!
빼놓을 수 없는 단어와 관용구
- take with a grain of salt: 조금 의심하면서 받아들이다. "이 추정치는 큰 의심을 가져야 해요"처럼 사용합니다.
- dawdle away: 아무 일도 하지 않고 시간을 보내다. "우리가 80만 년을 아무 일도 하지 않고 보낸다면"과 같이 씁니다.
- outlandish: 터무니없는, 이상한. "지금은 터무니없어 보이는 아이디어"처럼 표현합니다.
이 단어들은 논술이나 토론에서 매우 유용하니, "shadowing site"에서 연습할 때 꼭 사용해보세요!
발음을 완벽하게 만드는 방법
이 비디오의 스피커는 명확하면서도 자연스러운 발음을 특징으로 합니다. 특히 연속 발음과 강세에 주목해야 해요. 예를 들어 "dawdle away"에서 "dawdle"의 'l' 소리와 "away"의 'a' 소리가 자연스럽게 연결됩니다. "shadow speak" 연습을 할 때는 스피커의 속도와 강세를 정확히 따라하는 것이 중요합니다. IELTS 스피킹에서 높은 점수를 받으려면, 이런 세부적인 발음 연습이 필수적입니다. 작은 구절부터 시작해 천천히 따라하고, 반복해서 연습하다 보면 자연스러운 발음을 익힐 수 있을 거예요!
이 영상의 문법
화자가 가장 많이 쓰는 문형을 영상 속 실제 표현과 함께 정리했습니다.
| 문형 | 영상 속 표현 |
|---|---|
| 수동태 be + 과거분사 — 누가 하는지보다 무슨 일이 일어나는지에 초점 | be born · was dwarfed · were born |
| 현재완료 have/has + 과거분사 — 과거의 일이 지금도 관련이 있을 때 | have always thought · have already lived · we've also invented |
| 관계절 who / which + 절 — 사람이나 사물에 대한 추가 정보 | people who do · Somebody who might |
쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법
쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.