Prática de Shadowing: Every Modern Economic Problem Explained - Aprenda a falar inglês com o YouTube
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You know, a hundred years from now,
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You know, a hundred years from now,
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historians will look back at the 2020s as a global turning point.
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Because, look around, prices are going through the roof,
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it's getting harder to find a job,
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we've got wars, people worth hundreds of billions of dollars in the world as literally more than 300 trillion dollars in debt.
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Put all of this together and you get the picture of a global economy under immense strain.
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Honestly, the future feels more uncertain than ever,
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but that's why we have to try and understand it.
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In this video we're taking you through the five defining economic challenges of our time,
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why they exist, how they affect you,
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and where they could take us in the coming decades.
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Welcome to ALUX.
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Okay, so the first economic problem,
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and you are definitely feeling the impact of this one,
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is inflation and the cost of living crisis.
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Now, at its core, inflation just means the price of things you need is going up,
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and the value of your money quietly is shrinking.
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The thing is, lots of people think a little bit of stable inflation,
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like 2% a year or so,
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is actually a good thing because it gives people a small incentive to spend and invest their money instead of hoarding it.
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But over the last few years,
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that number has shot through the roof.
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We can trace this back as far as 2008 after the financial crisis.
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things really started ramping up in 2020 when the pandemic turned the world upside down.
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When demand collapsed because, well,
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people weren't going out, weren't traveling and weren't spending,
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governments around the world responded by printing trillions of dollars and making it cheaper,
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or in some cases, free to borrow money,
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but more on that later.
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By 2022, when things were mostly back to normal-ish,
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there was so much more money circulating in the economy that inflation hit levels not seen in decades.
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In the US and Europe,
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prices were rising at nearly 10% a year,
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and this often forces ordinary people into making impossible choices like,
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do we heat our home this winter or buy more food,
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do we send the kids to college or not.
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In developing countries where basics like rice,
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corn or cooking fuel are basically unaffordable,
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millions of people have been pushed into abject poverty.
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And even in wealthier nations like the UK,
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some surveys found that parents were skipping meals so their children,
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or even their pets, could eat.
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Now, on average, inflation is definitely not as bad as it was a few years ago,
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but remember that inflation going down doesn't mean that prices go down.
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Prices are still high, and they're still going up,
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just maybe a little bit less.
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No matter where you look though,
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all around the world, food,
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energy and healthcare are substantially more expensive than they were 5 years ago
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and young people are largely unable to afford a home.
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As for the future, the main tool for combating inflation has been raising interest rates,
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which makes borrowing more expensive and slows down spending.
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But the thing is, if spending slows down too much,
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you're risking a recession and if you ease off too soon,
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prices could start spiraling again.
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Most forecasts expect inflation to cool off over the next couple of years,
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but the truth is, one new conflict or supply chain shock,
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and the cycle would start all over again.
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No one can say for sure when stability will return.
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Now, the next main problem we're facing is rising global inequality.
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Now, obviously, inequality has always and probably always will exist.
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But recently, that gap between the haves and the have-nots has become… almost surreal.
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On paper, the world economy has grown for everybody,
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but let's look at the real numbers.
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Since 2020, the richest 1% of people have captured nearly two-thirds of all the new wealth created worldwide.
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That's about $26 trillion flowing to the very top,
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while the remaining 99% of humanity shared just $16 trillion.
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Or, to put it another way,
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for every time someone in the bottom 90% became a dollar richer,
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a billionaire became $1.7 million richer.
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Meanwhile, more than 700 million people still live on less than $2.15 a day.
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These numbers paint a picture of an economic system that's heavily tilted toward the few,
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with both extreme wealth and extreme poverty rising side by side.
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So why is this happening?
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One side effect of inflation,
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which we just talked about,
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is that when prices of stocks,
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estate and other assets rise,
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that actually benefits the people who own those assets.
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Pair that with tax cuts for the wealthy,
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weaker labor protections, deregulation, globalization,
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technology and the winner-takes-all economy where a handful of companies dominate entire markets
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and wealth is naturally going to concentrate at the very top.
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Many economists believe that even if we're all getting wealthier on paper,
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inequality actually leads to less economic growth in the long run.
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And even beyond the numbers,
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it's difficult to believe that we're all in this together or something like that when families are skipping meals,
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and Jeff Bezos is renting out the entirety of Venice and his $100 million superyacht is parked outside.
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Plus, just open up any history textbook and you'll see that unchecked inequality can lead to populist politics,
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destabilize societies and, in extreme cases, even lead to revolutions.
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Just ask the French, or the Russians,
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or the Chinese, or anyone for that matter.
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Now look, okay, inequality can get political and we're not trying to take sides here.
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The underlying point we're trying to make here is that inequality is a real economic issue,
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with real economic consequences.
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And maybe fixing that isn't as easy as telling people to learn to code.
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The data shows that societies
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that are more equal on average have tax systems where the ultra wealthy pay more of their share,
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higher investments in public services like education and healthcare,
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and stronger protections for the working class.
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For now, rising inequality just seems to keep on rising though.
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But here's the thing, ok,
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these economic problems are real and they are serious,
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they shape the world that we live in and yeah,
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they affect you too.
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But look, you are not powerless in all of this.
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You don't have to sit back and let the economy dictate your life.
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Here at Alux, we believe that if you're willing to adapt,
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learn and take your fate into your own hands,
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you can achieve whatever you set your mind to.
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And we wanted our viewers to have everything they needed to become successful even in the toughest economic times.
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So that's exactly why we built the ALUX app,
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the ultimate tool for wealth building, personal development and success.
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Inside you'll find hundreds of resources,
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daily insights and courses designed by industry experts to help you level up financially, professionally and personally.
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Hundreds of thousands of ambitious people already use the ALUX app every day to grow smarter and wealthier.
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So if you're serious about taking your future into your own hands,
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scan the QR code on screen or click the link in the description to get 25% off your yearly membership.
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Invest in yourself, Aluxer, because no matter what the economy is doing,
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you will always be your greatest asset.
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Alright, so moving on now,
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the next major economic issue we're talking about is aging populations,
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okay, because demographically we're living through one of the most profound shifts in human history.
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By 2030, 1 in 6 people on earth will be over 60 years old.
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By 2050, that number is set to double.
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You see, because our societies have grown wealthier and more urban,
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we don't need to have like 8 kids to help us work the field anymore.
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Raising a family is expensive,
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and so people tend to have fewer children and later on in their lives too.
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For instance, South Korea's fertility rate is just 0.8 children per woman.
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At the same time, lifespans have soared.
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A century ago, the average human lived into their 30s,
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but But today, global life expectancy is over 72,
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and in many developing countries, it's closer to 80.
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But if you're wondering why this is an economic problem,
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well, it's because old people are kind of expensive.
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You know, they need to eat,
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get medical treatment, keep a roof over their heads, but they're also retired.
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So they're usually not working for it.
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Instead, young people take on that burden.
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In most countries, this usually happens through some version of a pension system,
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but if not, it's usually your younger relatives directly taking care of you.
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Either way, it's the younger generation supporting the older generation.
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But what happens when there are too many old people to support and not enough young people to support them?
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Well, that is basically the problem that we're facing on a global level.
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Much of Western Europe is already below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.
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South Korea, like we said, is just at 0.8.
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Japan, where nearly a third of the population is already over 60,
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has spent years grappling with spiraling pension costs.
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However, today's seniors are healthier than past generations,
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meaning they can increasingly work into their 60s and 70s,
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although sometimes this is less by choice and more out of necessity.
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Many governments are already trying to combat this problem by raising the retirement age,
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Though, not without pushback, lots of it.
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Others are encouraging immigration to bring in younger workers or investing heavily in automation.
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Japan, for instance, is using robots not just in factories,
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but even in elder care.
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And of course, they're also trying policies to encourage more people to start families,
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although there hasn't been much success on that front.
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Ultimately, this is one of the few global problems we can actually see coming.
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The question is whether we use this time to prepare
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or just pass the problem along to the next generation until it blows up in their face.
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Speaking of screwing over future generations,
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our next major economic issue is domestic and private debt.
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Did you know that in 2023,
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the total global debt, which includes governments,
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companies and households, hit a staggering 307 trillion dollars?
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That's multiple digit trillions, it's actually three times what it was three years ago,
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and more than three times the size of the entire global economy.
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And there's.. well, there's a lot of threes here, okay?
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So let's start off with governments.
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Each year, governments have to pay interest to investors who lend them money by buying government bonds,
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like US treasuries.
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Other countries just take out flat rate loans,
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which they have to pay back in full with interest on top.
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now, the World Bank says that over 100 countries are already cutting essential services like health,
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education and infrastructure just to meet those repayments.
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Hopefully some countries just won't be able to pay it back.
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Sri Lanka, for example, defaulted on its debts in 2022 and according to the World Economic Forum,
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about 60% of low-income countries are at risk of default right now.
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If you look at the United States,
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they're going to spend over 1.2 trillion dollars in interest in 2025,
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which is around 17% of everything the government spends.
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On the private side, many families with floating-rate mortgages are seeing monthly repayments double and in the US,
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credit card debt has passed $1 trillion with interest rates north of 20%.
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And a lot of companies are also fueled by debt.
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Of course, debt is a risk.
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You use the money to bet on something that is supposed to come back to you with more money,
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but just think about what What happens if slowly,
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and then more and more often,
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those risks don't pay off.
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A few people start spending less,
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a few companies go bankrupt, a few governments default.
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The ripple effects are easy to imagine,
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but the thing is, solving it is far from simple.
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Debt is a double-edged sword.
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When used responsibly, it allows governments to invest,
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businesses to expand, and families to buy homes.
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But you don't want to borrow too little,
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because it means the economy stops growing,
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but if you borrow too much,
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the effects can be disastrous
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and you end up with generations who have to make up for the mistakes of those who came before them.
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Currently, debt is threatening to become a trap and that is the risk that we're running right now.
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Alright, moving along to the next economic problem and it's geopolitical fragmentation.
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So basically what this means is that for the past few decades the world seemed to be moving in one direction.
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More trade, more travel, more cooperation, globalization, right?
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But recently the global economy has been pulled apart into rival camps,
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with China and Russia on one side,
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Europe on another, and… well,
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Trump is stirring the pot and driving everyone crazy.
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So right now, instead of one interconnected marketplace,
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we're moving towards separate spheres of influence,
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with each of its own trade rules, tech standards and alliances.
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Economists call this trend geopolitical fragmentation.
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But what it really means is that countries trust each other less every day,
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and you can already see it happening.
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The U.S has restricted China's access to advanced semiconductors
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and pushed American companies to move their supply chains closer to home or to friendlier countries.
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China has responded by doubling down on its own tech independence and restructuring exports of critical minerals.
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After Russia invaded Ukraine, they were cut off from much of the Western financial system
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and they retaliated by cutting energy exports to Europe.
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Even Brexit is part of the larger trend.
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The IMF says trade restrictions have nearly tripled since 2019 with almost 3,000 new barriers in 2022 alone.
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But why does this matter?
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Well, because the costs are huge.
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The IMF estimates that if the world de-globalizes significantly,
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we could lose up to 7% of global GDP in the long run,
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about $7 trillion, which is roughly the size of France and Germany's economies combined.
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For developing countries, the outlook is even worse.
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Many of them rely on open trade to export goods or on global finance to attract investment.
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If the world fractures, they might be forced to choose sides and risk losing access to key markets altogether.
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The impacts of this are already visible in daily life.
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For example, the invasion of Ukraine caused an energy crisis in Europe,
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and the resulting grain shortages made food prices across Africa and the Middle East much higher.
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Basically, fragmentation creates friction everywhere.
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Trade, investment, travel, even education and scientific collaboration.
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And let's not forget that whether you were born in Ohio,
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Chengdu or Lagos, we are all people.
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The world would be better if we were all friends.
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Geopolitical fragmentation just generally is not a good thing,
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but it's a man-made problem,
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fixing it won't be easy,
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but it's entirely within our power to keep this from spiraling into a permanent divide.
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Alrighty luck sir, those were the 5 defining economic problems of our time.
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If you learned something from this video,
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make sure to hit that like button and subscribe down below.
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And remember, if you're serious about taking your fate into your own hands and investing in yourself,
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come and join me inside the ALOX app.
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You can get it when you scan the QR code on screen right now,
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you'll get 25% off that annual membership.
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But with all that said,
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my friend, we'll see you back here next time.
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Until then, take care.
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Contexto & Antecedentes
No vídeo "Every Modern Economic Problem Explained", o apresentador discute as dificuldades econômicas atuais que o mundo enfrenta, destacando os desafios que afetam a vida cotidiana de muitas pessoas. Ele menciona o aumento inflacionário e a crise do custo de vida, que têm gerado escolhas difíceis para muitas famílias. Em um contexto onde os preços estão subindo rapidamente e o desemprego é uma preocupação crescente, entender esses problemas econômicos se torna crucial não apenas para a conscientização, mas também para a preparação do futuro.
Top 5 Frases para Comunicação Diária
- Os preços estão subindo rapidamente. (Prices are rising rapidly.)
- Estamos enfrentando uma crise de custo de vida. (We are facing a cost of living crisis.)
- A inflação está afetando nossas finanças diárias. (Inflation is affecting our daily finances.)
- É difícil encontrar um emprego atualmente. (It's hard to find a job these days.)
- Muitas famílias estão lutando para se aquecer neste inverno. (Many families are struggling to keep warm this winter.)
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