Prática de Shadowing: When Is the Best Time To Buy Stocks? - Aprenda a falar inglês com vídeo
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- Philip, our savings is gone!
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Look! - Yeah, I know.
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I put it in the stock market.
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- Now? While the market's tanking?
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What were you thinking?
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- You told me to.
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- No, I didn't.
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- Yeah, you did.
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You texted me yesterday, "Don't forget to buy the dip." - I meant the onion dip for the party this weekend.
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- Oh. - I hope you at least bought some blue chips.
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- Of course I did.
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- Well, that's corny.
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Whenever the market is down, you'll hear a chorus of voices saying you should "Buy the dip." But what does that mean exactly?
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- Put simply, buying the dip means investing money into the stock market when share prices have recently fallen.
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Since the shares are essentially on sale, you get more bang for your buck, or so the thinking goes.
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When the market rises again, you'll get a higher return on your investment.
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If the goal of every stock trader is to buy low and sell high, then buying the dip makes total sense.
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- Imagine, for instance, that this is the last 12 months of a blue chip stock price.
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If you get it- - Oh, blue chip!
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- If you manage to buy, say, $1,000 worth of stock at this point, you would've almost doubled your money in less than a year.
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- But, of course, nothing looks easier in hindsight than stock trading.
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The hard part is knowing when a stock has hit its lowest point.
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If you had bought it just a bit earlier, you wouldn't be making nearly as much.
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And if you waited just a bit longer, you would've missed your chance completely.
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- And that's just the beginning of the dangers.
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Buying the dip relies on a statistical principle called regression towards the mean.
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It says that ups and downs are basically temporary, and they will all average out to reflect a stable statistical trend.
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Traders who buy the dip are assuming that if a stock price falls sharply, it will most likely go back up again.
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- And that is the case much of the time, especially when fluctuations are based on investor emotional trends.
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But sometimes, a fall in stock price is indicative of a fundamental problem in the company or sector.
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Maybe a company is poorly run and the stock price deserves to crash.
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Instead of buying the dip, you may find yourself tumbling down a cliff with no bottom in sight.
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- Despite these risks, you still might be interested in buying the dip.
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So, how should you go about it?
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Most investors who attempt it will set some portion of their investment dollars aside in cash, waiting for a stock to fall from a recent peak by a certain percentage, say between 10 and 50%.
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Both ends of this spectrum carry risk.
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If you set the percentage too low, you may buy in well before a stock has hit its bottom.
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But set it too high, and you may be waiting around forever.
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- For example, Ted here has about $20,000 to invest, but he wants to buy the dip.
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So he keeps $3,000 in cash and waits for one of his favorite stocks to fall by 20%.
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Finally, after 12 months, it happens.
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And Ted picks up 20% more shares than his money would've bought the week before.
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The stock falls a little lower. Eek!
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But then starts regressing toward the mean, even surpassing its recent high.
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Well done, Ted! You beat the system.
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- Or, did he?
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Ted may have bought the stock at a relatively low price.
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But when you look a little further back in time, it doesn't seem like such a win.
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This stock, like many, has a fairly consistent upward trend.
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He bought the stock for less than it cost a week ago, but more than it cost 12 months ago.
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If Ted had just gotten all of his money in at the beginning, he'd have done better overall.
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- Ted failed to factor in the opportunity cost of waiting to buy the dip.
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Most financial advisors will recommend that if you have money to invest, invest it now.
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Cash that just sits around is worse than wasted potential, it's actually losing value thanks to inflation.
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- There is, however, another investment method that confers some of the benefits of buying the dip without all of the risks.
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It's called dollar-cost averaging.
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It's actually really simple.
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You just commit to putting the same percentage of your paycheck into the stock market every month, regardless of whether it's up or down.
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- So for instance, let's say that Marisol here decides to put $200 a month into her favorite stocks, no matter the price.
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That means that when the share price is inflated, she'll buy less of them.
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And when the share price is low, she'll buy more.
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It's an automatic way of making sure you're paying what the stock is really worth historically.
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And for the vast majority of investors, it has a much better track record than trying to buy the dip.
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- Don't get us wrong.
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Some people have had great success in buying the dip.
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And if you've been waiting for the right time to start investing, it's not a bad idea to get in when shares are cheap.
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- But just like a gambler who occasionally hits the jackpot, most people who make a habit of it will eventually come out behind.
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Study after study has concluded that accurately timing the market is virtually impossible.
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- Disciplined investors who think long-term and don't try to beat the system almost always perform better.
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- And that's our two cents.
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- History lovers, we need to tell you about a new series from PBS called "The Bigger Picture".
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Hosted by Professor Vincent Brown, it's a show that examines famous photographs and unpacks the historical context around them.
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- In doing so, we reveal what these photos can tell us about our history, but also how we view ourselves.
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Check the link in the description and head to the PBS YouTube channel to see it for yourself, and tell them "Two Cents" sent you.
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Thanks to our patrons for keeping "Two Cents" financially healthy.
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Click the link in the description to become a "Two Cents" patron.
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If you've ever tried to buy the dip, let us know how it went in the comments.
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Vocabulário e dicas de fala para esta lição
Esta aula de conversação de nível B2 usa o vídeo “When Is the Best Time To Buy Stocks?”. As palavras que mais se repetem: stock, dip, price, buying, Ted. Este vídeo tem 77 frases e 1037 palavras para praticar shadowing. A fala dura 6:04. O falante fala em ritmo natural, cerca de 171 palavras por minuto, próximo de uma conversa do dia a dia. 84% das palavras estão entre as 3.000 mais comuns do inglês; vale a pena estudar o restante antes de começar.
Vocabulário principal deste vídeo
As 15 palavras mais avançadas do vídeo, com pronúncia e significado:
| Palavra | Pronúncia | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| investor substantivo | /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ | investidor |
| patron substantivo | /ˈpeɪ.tɹən/ | mecenas |
| trader substantivo | /ˈtɹeɪdɚ/ | comerciante |
| confer verbo | /kənˈfɜː/ | conferir |
| fluctuation substantivo | /flʌkt͡ʃuːˈeɪʃən/ | flutuação |
| gambler substantivo | apostador | |
| hindsight substantivo | /ˈhaɪn(d)saɪt/ | retrospecto |
| inflate verbo | /ɪnˈfleɪt/ | encher |
| regress verbo | /ˈɹiːˌɡɹɛs/ | regredir, retroceder |
| regression substantivo | /ɹiːˈɡɹɛʃ.ən/ | regressão |
| surpass verbo | /sɚˈpæs/ | ultrapassar, superar |
| tumble verbo | /ˈtʌmbl̩/ | cair |
| unpack verbo | /ʌnˈpæk/ | desempacotar |
| jackpot substantivo | /ˈd͡ʒækpɒt/ | bolo, bolão |
| indicative adjetivo | /ɪnˈdɪk.ə.tɪv/ | indicativo, indicador |
Phrasal verbs que você vai ouvir
| Palavra | Pronúncia | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| come out verbo | /ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/ | sair, partir |
| pick up verbo | pegar |
Gramática neste vídeo
As estruturas que o falante mais usa, com as palavras exatas do vídeo:
| Estrutura | No vídeo |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + particípio passado — uma ação passada que ainda importa agora | has hit · have had · has concluded |
| Voz passiva be + particípio passado — o foco está no que acontece, não em quem faz | are based · is inflated |
Pronúncia para ficar de olho
O falante usa 17 contrações e formas reduzidas, como don't, would've, she'll. Diga-as na forma curta, do jeito que você ouve.
- Os sons de “sh” e “zh”: fluctuation /flʌkt͡ʃuːˈeɪʃən/, regression /ɹiːˈɡɹɛʃ.ən/, sharply /ˈʃɑɹpli/, inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/
- Palavras longas — acerte a sílaba tônica: statistical /stəˈtɪs.tɪ.kəl/, fluctuation /flʌkt͡ʃuːˈeɪʃən/, indicative /ɪnˈdɪk.ə.tɪv/, accurately /ˈæk.jə.ɹɪt.li/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/
Sons difíceis para falantes de português:
- Consoante final — sem acrescentar um “i” depois: hindsight /ˈhaɪn(d)saɪt/, inflate /ɪnˈfleɪt/, paycheck /ˈpeɪ.t͡ʃɛk/, unpack /ʌnˈpæk/, jackpot /ˈd͡ʒækpɒt/
- /h/ — um sopro suave, diferente do “r”: hindsight /ˈhaɪn(d)saɪt/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/
Como praticar com este vídeo
- Ouça o vídeo inteiro uma vez sem falar e anote as palavras que você não conhece.
- Comece na velocidade 0,75×, faça shadowing frase por frase e volte à velocidade normal quando ficar fácil.
- Grave a sua voz e compare com o original, prestando atenção a palavras como investor, patron, trader.
O que é a Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing é uma técnica de aprendizado de idiomas com base científica, originalmente desenvolvida para o treinamento de intérpretes profissionais. O método é simples, mas poderoso: você ouve áudio em inglês nativo e repete imediatamente em voz alta — como uma sombra seguindo o falante com 1-2 segundos de atraso. Pesquisas mostram melhora significativa na precisão da pronúncia, entonação, ritmo, sons conectados, compreensão auditiva e fluência na fala.