Практика Shadowing: Elon Musk Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst. - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео
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Are you worried about the Chinese catching up and getting ahead?
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For digital intelligence, it comes down to how many chips do you have and how much power do you have?
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China has more electricity than the United States, Europe and India combined.
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And at some point, they probably will have a lot of compute.
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Ergo, they will be the leaders.
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There's a good chance that they are the leaders at some point.
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Well, I don't know if you guys saw this one recently, but Elon Musk has just done a very spicy interview with The Economist.
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He was fired up.
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I would like to just admonish you and the media for the absurd characterisation of the far right.
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Um...
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Zero.
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People.
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I hear you loud and clear.
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Zero.
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Do you realise the media is despised?
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It is false and misleading and nonsense.
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Please keep this part in.
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Yeah, he was ready to rant, that's for sure.
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But earlier in the interview, one of the really big talking points that they covered was, of course, AI.
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Of course it's AI, it's everywhere, it's driving my car, it's writing my emails, it's even telling me how many calories are in a glass of milk.
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I really did look that one up.
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But more importantly than all of that is that AI is powering a really high percentage of the stock market's returns.
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And thanks to these seven companies, it's made the stock market look like this, with a valuation like this.
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And that's why I found Elon's thoughts in this interview really interesting
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because it kind of lines up exactly with what Steve Eisman has been saying recently too.
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A guy that's pretty good at predicting stock market bubbles.
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So in this video I want to take you through the three elements to the problem
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that Elon discusses in this interview and what we should be looking out for as investors.
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The first problem is arguably the biggest structural problem of this AI boom in America one that's really, really difficult to fix, and that is power.
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But before we get into where the power is actually running out, listen to how Elon frames this whole AI race.
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Because to be honest, the rest of this video is kind of centered around this one sentence.
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You can think of like the constraints on AI, essentially electricity and AI chips.
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And really, it's just those two inputs, power and chips.
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But the scary thing is that for one of them, electricity, Elon says the US just isn't competitive in the long term and that's a problem.
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And if you look at electricity production AI is a function of whatever the limiting factor is
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if it's chips
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or electricity China has far more electricity than the United States
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in fact China has more electricity than the United States Europe
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and India combined already my guess is China gets to four times the electricity production of the US
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which is roughly proportionate to the population.
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Now, in the long run, this is where AI's true bottlenecks starts to appear.
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We know that China already outproduces the US in raw generation, but check out this Bloomberg article.
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They note that China added the equivalent of 40% of the entire US grid's capacity in a single year
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and has built more generation capacity in the last four years than the whole US grid combined.
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The power gap is not closing.
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In fact, by almost all projections, it is widening.
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China is getting further ahead.
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And this is a massive problem because AI eats electricity for breakfast.
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We need stacks of it for the future of this technology.
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And that raises the obvious question, which is why can't the US just build more power?
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To be fair, the US certainly isn't ignoring its problems they are trying to build out the power infrastructure
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and they recognize these power-hungry data centers are becoming a problem.
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For example in February Trump announced the rate payer protection pledge
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basically telling tech companies build your own power for your data centers
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but even with this push the annoying thing is getting the new power generation needed up and online.
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As of this year, there's roughly 2,000 gigawatts of proposed power generation sitting in US interconnection queues,
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and the median wait to actually get switched on is roughly five years.
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In Texas alone, ERCOT is managing a 474 gigawatt queue of large loads, and data centers make up 90% of it.
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Some projects are facing waits of up to 12 years.
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So the reality years, getting the new power generation online is a slow slog.
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And this is why so many of these AI hyperscalers are turning to these things, these backup gas turbines.
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I spoke about this in a video earlier this year, but even Elon can't wait for the grid.
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He bought like 35 of these gas turbines for XAI's Colossus supercomputer in Memphis.
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With these turbines, normally you'd find like one or two of them as backup generators for like a hospital.
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But XAI had literally 35 of them humming as the data center's primary energy source.
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So even Elon brought his own portable power plant rather than waiting for the grid.
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That should tell you everything you need to know about how stretched the system is.
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For digital intelligence, it comes down to how much AI compute do you have?
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Well, how many chips do you have?
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And how much power do you have?
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How much electricity do you have?
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The constraint right now, I think, is actually slightly more on power and cooling than it is on AI chips
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because the power demands of the AI chips are very, very high.
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We'll talk about water demands, but really the water usage of AI is negligible.
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The electrical demand is very high.
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And it's not just Elon either.
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Everyone's trying to get these gas turbines now.
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So much so, it's broken the supply chain.
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Wait times for large turbines have stretched to five years.
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GE Vinova's backlog is up to 116 gigawatts.
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Siemens Energy's backlog sits around 69 gigawatts.
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Turbine prices for plants coming online in 2030, 2031 are skyrocketing.
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They're up 75% percent.
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I mean, talk about a picks and shovels play.
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Overall, really, it's GE Vinova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy.
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They are the three big dogs selling these turbines.
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And you can see on InvestingPro, despite by normal metrics, these companies are all sitting reasonably overvalued.
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The analysts are still seeing them as fair or undervalued because of that AI runway ahead.
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Energy infrastructure is in hot demand.
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When you ask Warren AI what's going on, you can see it's just two factors.
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The data center boom has begun and thus gas turbines, which are the bridge, supply dispatchable power as renewables and the grid scales up.
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And because of this trend, GE Venover is up 68% in the past year.
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Siemens Energy is up 65%.
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And to follow the energy infrastructure theme even more closely, InvestingPro also has ProPix AI, which is a model built on over 50 financial signals that surfaces those outperformers.
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For example, in this tab, we can see a strategy called Energy Elite.
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So if you're looking for ideas on this specific theme, being the energy infrastructure boom.
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You can look here
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and see how some of those businesses have compared to say market metrics like the S&P 500 energy index.
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So it's a really fun feature.
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I love exploring it for ideas.
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Now I do want to mention the great thing right now is the investing.com summer sale is currently live.
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That means you can get 55% off plus an extra 15% with my referral link in the description
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and pinned comments so definitely check him out now is a great time
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and thanks always to investing.com for sponsoring these videos
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but back to it
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so that's the power story that's elon's first point in the ai bubble debate the us is failing
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and china is winning and that brings us right to elon's second argument
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which is good old chip starved china and since the us has banned the export of the latest ai chips to China.
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China is somewhat chip starved.
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So China is chip starved but that might actually be a blessing in disguise for them.
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So for those that don't know
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because Nvidia makes the best AI chips in the world
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and the US controls what Nvidia is allowed to sell to
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China we've seen restrictions come into place banning the export of the most powerful chips to China.
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Now the rules have actually loosened a little bit this year.
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Trump approved limited H200 sales to China in December That started in small amounts in February, but there was a catch.
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The US is imposing a 25% tariff on these chips destined for China So it's also worth noting Nvidia's newest chips,
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which is Blackwell and the upcoming Rubin architecture They're still completely off limits to China
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But here's why this is actually a problem for America
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because the US has applied these constraints to China It has actually spurred China on to do their own thing
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and now they are more competitive than they've ever been Now China's homegrown deep ultraviolet lithography machines,
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the machines that print incredibly tiny circuit patterns onto the silicon wafers, they are still a fair way behind ASML, which is the gold standard,
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particularly when it comes to performance and reliability, but SMIC, which is essentially China's answer to TSMC, they have found ways to work around some limitations.
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So they've already demonstrated 7nm production using older DUV technology
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and it's now starting to get there with 5nm production too
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and right across China there's a massive effort underway to close this technology gap So
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while the export restrictions have undoubtedly hurt China in the short
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term they've also given the country an enormous incentive to build its own semiconductor ecosystem You know,
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maybe China is chip starved today but in a few years from now
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That could be a different story and that brings us to Elon's third
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and final argument as to why the AI narrative in the US might be getting a little bit stretched
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because despite China being chip starved right now and potentially remaining
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that way for years to come it's pumping out AI models that are already really good and really cheap.
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How do you think about the Chinese models and the geopolitics of it?
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Are you worried about the Chinese catching up and getting ahead?
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Given that the Chinese AI companies are doing as well as they are with a relatively small amount of compute, it seems that if they had a lot of compute,
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there's a good chance that they would be the leaders.
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And at some point, they probably will have a lot of compute.
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So they will, ergo, they will be the leaders.
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There's a good chance that they are the leaders at some point.
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Listen to that.
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Elon is confident it's only a matter of time before China is the world leader in AI.
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And the reason for it is despite China's chip-starved AI ecosystem, they're still producing models that are very, very good.
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I think realistically, Fable is still clearly the smartest model.
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I think anyone realistically would say that that's still the case.
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But the Kimi model is getting quite close to Fable.
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So even Elon, who has every incentive to talk his own book, is saying the gap between the best US model and China's best is closing.
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And this is exactly where what I was talking about in my Steve Eisman video comes back in
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because Steve isn't so much worried about the technical capabilities of these Chinese models like Elon is,
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he's worried about what happens to US LLM pricing once they are competitive.
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AKA he's predicting a price war that will squeeze OpenAI and Anthropic.
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And now we actually have numbers to prove this point.
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This is from AI research firm artificial analysis.
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From their testing, they found that DeepSeek's v4 Flash cost $0.03 per test, compared to $0.86 for Moonshot AI's Kimi K3,
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versus $1.86 for OpenAI's ChatGPT 5.6 Sol, and $3.15 for Claude's Fable 5.
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Now, Steve Eisman estimates OpenAI and Anthropic together account for roughly 70% of all AI-related revenue flowing into the big hyperscalers,
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Microsoft, Amazon, Google.
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So take the time to think about it.
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If a cheaper, good enough Chinese model starts pulling customers away on price, that's really bad for OpenAI and Anthropics margins.
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And if that means OpenAI
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and Anthropics have to pull back on the hundreds of billions in future spending that they've already committed to the hyperscalers, spending that has been baked into share prices,
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well, that could just be a catalyst for an AI correction.
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So let's step back, let's connect the dots.
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There's been a lot in this video, power, chips, pricing models, etc. But really, Elon's talking about three elements in one system.
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Right now, America has the chips, but it's running out of power.
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China has the power, but it's short on chips.
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That's the current standoff.
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But the problem for America is the future.
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China's chip shortage is a solvable in years problem.
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You know, lithography, yields, manufacturing.
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However, America's power shortage is more of a solvable in decades problem, because he can't just build a gas turbine or a transmission line
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or a new power plant on just a snappy short timeline.
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So you get a power bottleneck in the US, plus China solving its chip problem, plus the models being good for a fraction of the price.
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That is a recipe for hurt, particularly for OpenAI and Anthropic.
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And if they can't spend the hundreds of billions they've committed to spend at the hyperscalers, then the hyperscalers suffer and the whole AI narrative starts to crack.
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that's the story
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and interestingly that's also why Elon is trying to build his
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data centers in space solar is much more effective in space plus Elon's also got pre-established launch capacity through SpaceX
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so might not be as implausible as it sounds but with
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that said they are Elon Musk's thoughts on the AI bubble
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that we're in I hope
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that all made sense I hope you enjoyed it big thanks
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again to investing.com for sponsoring remember to check out my link in the description for an additional 15% off.
184
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Apart from that, guys, thanks for watching, and I'll see you in the next one.
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О данном уроке
В этом уроке вы потренируетесь в воспроизведении речи на английском, используя диалог из интервью Илона Маска. Вы узнаете, как правильно передавать интонацию и темп разговорной речи, а также познакомитесь с актуальными терминами из сферы ИИ и экономики. Практика будет полезна для улучшения произношения английского и навыков разговорного общения.
Ключевой словарь и фразы
- AI bubble — пузырь ИИ (используется в контексте экономических пузырей, связанных с технологиями искусственного интеллекта)
- Compute — вычислительная мощность (термин в информатике, обозначает способность обрабатывать данные)
- Stock market returns — доходы на фондовом рынке (финансовый термин, характеризующий прибыль от инвестиций)
- Bottleneck — узкое место (в контексте ограничений, препятствующих развитию)
- Rant — эмоциональная речь, разговор (часто с критикой или недовольством)
Советы по практике
Для эффективной тренировки используйте метод shadowing (тень). Этот подход поможет улучшить произношение английского и синхронизацию речи с носителем. Вот как это сделать с видео:
- Сначала прослушайте отрывок длиной 5–10 секунд, затем сразу повторите его, стараясь точно передать интонацию и темп. Обратите внимание на ударения в словах like electricity и competitive.
- Используйте shadowing site или приложения для записи своей речи и сравнения с оригиналом. Это поможет увидеть разницу в произношении и скорости.
- Повторяйте сложные фразы, например: “China has more electricity than the United States, Europe and India combined”, пока не достигнете естественной речи. Фокус на связке слов “combined” и “already” поможет улучшить плавность.
- Чтобы усилить эффект, практикуйте shadow speech daily, выделяя 10–15 минут на тренировку. Это поможет развить привычку говорить на английском с правильной интонацией и ритмом.
Помните, что регулярная практика разговорного английского — ключ к успеху. С помощью этих советов вы быстро заметите прогресс в произношении и уверенности при общении.
Грамматика в этом видео
Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:
| Конструкция | В видео |
|---|---|
| Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас | has just done · has built · have stretched |
| Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает | was fired · is despised · is allowed |
| Придаточные определительные who / which + предложение — уточнение о человеке или предмете | question, which is · turbines, which are · ASML, which is |
Что такое техника Shadowing?
Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.