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having such kind of intimate knowledge and experience with

that procedure now watching it unfold firsthand how well does

that line up and what has surprised you and

and not surprised you yeah well i think there was a there's a big part of me

that has the fomo right like i studied this i wish i was there

but then i step outside of my own ego

and my own desires of like what does ryan want

and i'm like oh maybe my place was to kind of share with the American people what this adversary is

that we're actually going up against and how hard of a challenge this is for our warfighters.

They're totally capable and able to do it, but this is a real problem.

They've gotten to the point where they're really strong.

I started to see that

when I was teaching it was how much of their shadow fleet and shadow orientation for their economy propped up the IRGC.

I was like, why is there so much of a shadow infrastructure to pump money into the IRGC?

And why are they getting 60, 70 % of the revenue going right to these top guys?

I don't get it.

And so I think that it just was kind of like it's the mind of the Ayatollah being represented in the military.

The military hardware they have is all built for proxy warfare, if you really think about it.

I mean, we took out their massive military systems, Blue Water Navy, surface air missile systems for the most part uh some of their headquarters buildings command

and control nodes pretty much in the first couple weeks right

but their whole system was built for proxy warfare and

so what i was most kind of taken aback by was

how resilient their systems are to once the war starts like

it's like they kind of know they see the writing on the wall

that their whole their main military force is going to be crushed

and so then they immediately have second third fourth fifth sixth uh ways of fighting back right

and a lot of it's dispersed ballistic missile bunkers you know

if people come to my live streams you can see

that like we'll go on a live stream

and we'll just look across one little chunk of the country

and there'll be five different uh areas where there's 50 plus

ballistic missile bunkers where they just pull out a missile launch it

and go back in and i started to see too how like north korea

and iran the the tactics iran was kind of taking from

north korea north korea seemed to kind of have perfected it with triple a

and so it was really cool to be able to take the different war plans

and kind of war game them against each other like okay

how are these people going to learn from each other

because you know birds of a feather flock together right and

so in north korea they have AAA pieces that pull out of a hill and they can launch at Seoul.

Estimates are 500 ,000 people would be dead in the first 72 hours in that conflict, right?

Because they're going to launch so much artillery at Seoul and it's right there.

So Iran's version of that is the ballistic missiles where they have done the same exact technique, but not as many pieces, not as many AAA pieces as North Korea,

but their ballistic missiles are doing the same thing, at least in their minds.

That's what they hope for is to hit their neighbors hard enough, hit our bases hard enough that everybody just backs off

and this was light this was a light

and it wasn't nothing right we still see them launching ballistic missiles

but their goal their stated goal is 10 000 plus ballistic

missiles people can back me up on the exact numbers i

i want to say they started the conflict with like 2 000 something like

that but their goal is 10 000 and 100 000 plus drones

but the numbers i saw was they started with 2 000 ballistic missiles and maybe close to 50 000 drones.

Yeah.

From what you planned and kind of what was anticipated versus what's actually happening, does that line up pretty well?

Or are there some things, I mean, I know you mentioned their resiliency surprised you, but was that not anticipated in the planning?

Like, I guess from

somebody in your position or the higher up who's going to be putting

that package on the president or Joint Chief's desk and saying, here's what day one, two, five, six months looks like.

Do you think that it was predicted accurately, or are we pretty surprised where things are at right now?

I think it was predicted pretty accurately, but I think there were surprises in certain places.

So the Section 2 or whatever of that O plan is the proxy warfare phase.

So Section 1, you know, here's the force on force.

Section 2 is like way thicker, and it's this.

So I think the plan that was put on the president's desk was like, POTUS, this is going to wind down in like three to four weeks for the main military force.

But then this is going to kick up and hockey stick when it comes to the proxy warfare.

But maybe POTUS at that point was like, well, we're going to make a deal with them anyways.

So, you know, but then it turns out the IRGC is fully embedded like a mafia.

Right.

And so maybe that was a little more surprising where a lot of their front facing.

And I even kind of felt this with seeing a lot of their front -facing leaders.

They're convincing.

They're relatively good at gaslighting, right, where they seem like normal politicians.

But they're all IRGC guys that are all skilled in IOs, information operations.

So maybe that the - So politicians.

Yeah, I guess you're right.

Yeah, I guess we nailed it.

But yeah, I think that might have been maybe the inability to negotiate with them maybe didn't get communicated as well.

Maybe it did.

I don't know but i think the proxy warfare was definitely communicated

but the one thing i would say is what's changed for me

when i was in to now was the drones

because there were drones right as we studied their plans

but a lot of it was more fast attack boats

that would be remote control uh they would be more of

a fast attack boat drone focus where they would launch 500

or whatever of these fast attack boats with explosives

and try to take out the carrier uh so

that was kind of the main thing

that i saw with some drone stuff definitely ballistic missiles was a part of it

but also at the time the ballistic missiles that

that we studied weren't as accurate because they weren't i don't know

if we were understanding at the time

that they were going to get some advanced technology from russia

and china with electro -optical seekers and different things like that

and so i think just like the enemy always does right the enemy has a vote they're going to adapt and

so that's what i think they've done over the last five

ten years is get more accurate with their ballistic missiles and their drones, and they've taken money that's been given to them for decades,

and they've just consistently increased their military capability.

So this can has been kicked down the road so long

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that now you're fighting a much more resilient Iran proxy warfare -wise than I think we would have

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if this would have been done 10, 15 years ago.

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Yeah.

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Yeah, I don't doubt that.

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I'm curious if there's anything

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that you learned about the IRGC in the planning phase of your career that maybe the public still doesn't know?

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Yeah, I've talked about it quite a bit on the channel, but I think the big thing is they are using a information operation

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that is straight out of the book called Rules for Radicals.

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And so there's a book out there called Rules for Radicals written by Alinsky.

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And the whole focus of that was actually the left, the political left in the United States used that in the 70s

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and it's basically a way to triangulate a group of people against a specific threat for your own gain

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and so you can see it especially being used by people like AOC

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or Gavin Newsom

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or a lot of people on the left who will say

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we're all against Trump we're anti -Trump we hate Trump right

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because that's all they have to say they don't talk about any achievements that's being done by the Democratic Party

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because they're using that book, which is specifically meant to triangulate people against a certain person.

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And the book specifically says, don't triangulate against a large group of people, triangulate against one or two, and don't triangulate against a whole system.

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So you basically find something that people are interested in, you create an enemy, and then you tell them why that enemy is keeping them down.

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And you just do that over and over and over again. And

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so that's what the the left in the united states had

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done for a long time the right uses it now too by the way

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so it's a bipartisan thing in certain ways

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because the only way to fight against

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that is using the same tactic against itself it's

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so powerful it's such a powerful thing it's like this this weird cheat code of the human mind

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which is unfortunate

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but it's been used by both political parties started with the

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left now the right's having to use it as well

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and then the irgc uses it against the west as well

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that's why they call america the great satan they call israel the little Satan,

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because they're using the same playbook to try to triangulate the world against a specific thing.

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And then when you see the IRGC being interviewed, they've even come out and said, this is right out of the book as well.

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They'll say, we're not against the American people with just the leaders.

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Yeah.

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Okay.

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Great.

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Yeah.

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I'm sure if we were walking through the streets of Tehran, you'd just be like, oh yeah, yeah.

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Americans.

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Great.

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So again, it's an information operation.

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And so I see the left kind of being a little bit swooned by the IRGC

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and that whole tactic because it's the same tactic and playbook

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that they've actually been using themselves

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so it works yeah yeah do you have any idea how much of the planning

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that you did would have actually been used or implemented or

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or how does that work like because obviously the plans are already

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made how much are you augmenting or adding to them in

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that planning phase i think the way

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that my planning would have been done would have been more on the tactical level

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because at the time i was just very focused on that tactical application of the F -15E.

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So we got really good at strafing boats and I found a lot of different tactics to strafe boats.

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And I did a lot of research with people from three -letter agencies to determine, you know, what exactly are these boats going to do?

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Tell me exactly the maneuver.

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I want to see, and how far does a diesel bass boat...

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turn if he goes full full right wheel like i want to know all those things

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so i basically went to like the the gnats asked details of

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that uh and

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and the different styles of boats they have like all all

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different classes you know 15 different classes of boats i want

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to know exactly how fast they are uh are they going

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to see me up above them are they going to try

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to stop what are they going to try to do and

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so that's the kind of stuff that i more put into the plan

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is there been a i guess an understanding

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or was there an understanding then maybe anticipation is a better word for the assistance

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that china specifically china and

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or maybe even russia has given iran as far as intelligence drones technology etc was

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that anticipated or is

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that kind of a surprise i think i think it was

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always kind of an option you know i think we always have seen you know iran uh i actually thought

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that they would have more russian systems than they do to be honest with you

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so they've i don't know if it's a pride thing

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but they have they do have the ability to indigenously build surface -to -air missiles rockets

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and things like that

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so i'm actually surprised there's not more russian equipment i suspect

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the ukraine thing probably has a lot to do with

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that there you go is it i mean russia is

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so strapped with that is that they have far far less to contribute maybe yeah

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and they have a little operation going through the Caspian right

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both ways where you know actually Iran will send small arms

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I don't know Iran sending small arms to Russia Russia's sending explosive packs for drones to Iran

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so they have a little shadow network there in the Caspian as well yeah

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so are you aware of how much help China has given I mean I've seen a lot of reports

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that aren't maybe particularly definitive But certain aerial imagery, satellite imagery and stuff of, you know, what what was anticipated

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that Iran would have versus what China has given them in disparity of how much better the Chinese intelligence is.

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Does any of that ring true or strike a chord with any of the work you did?

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Yeah, I think the thing that we saw with China is, again, China is really good at building cameras, listening devices.

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I mean, look what they do to their own population.

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Right.

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So they've just taken that and magnified it.

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Again, like I talked about earlier, no limits on the Chinese military.

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They're like, oh, sweet, we can build a thousand megapixel camera

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and put it on a fighter jet and test it right now.

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And it's gonna be able to see everybody's home that we fly over and it's gonna absorb all that information.

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We don't care, cool.

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The US military might have some things where you can't even, if you're coming in to land at a base, you can't even have your targeting pod on because of privacy issues and all kinds of things,

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which I love, it's good.

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But again, China is going to just go to the max level when it comes to any type of capability, especially intelligence, surveillance or reconnaissance.

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That's what they're good at.

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I mean, there's a reason why, you know, they're like the Huawei phones, right, that we aren't allowed to have in the US or government officials can't have them.

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Definitely.

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So I think the thing that was going on with China

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that is hard to counter is even if Xi and Trump have a good relationship and, you know, they're face to face like, hey, we're not going to share any information.

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uh they're shadow companies that are operating all over the place and again

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if they have access to a they've bought off a general in the plaf people's liberation army air force

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and they're able to get some sort of new technology to iran

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and that general is going to make 100 million dollars dude they're going to do it every time right

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because corruption is going to rule a lot more

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when it comes to china

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so i i think there could be some things going on behind the scenes

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But as far as like the hard military power being transferred to China, I don't, from China to Iran, I don't see that being a factor.

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Where do you see it?

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Or I guess before you explain or predict where you see it going, how do you think it's going now?

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I think it's going longer than everybody would have hoped.

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I'm not surprised that it's taken this long.

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I mean, I could say here an armchair admiral the thing all day long, right?

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because I'm sitting in my nice comfy studio on YouTube and enjoying the freedoms that everybody's out there fighting for.

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So I think there's, there could have been some better messaging perhaps early on.

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I remember releasing a video, uh, in, I think it was March or April.

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And I was like, I think we need to get ready for six to 10 months of, of this.

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And someone, someone that was close to me was like, dude, you shouldn't say that.

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Like people, people aren't going to think you're credible.

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Like they're not going to think you're credible because that's way too long.

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And I was just thinking, no, I think we need a lot of time to see if some sort of a change could happen on the ground.

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Because if we're not going to do an invasion, which I don't know, I'm curious your thoughts too, maybe an invasion is the way to go,

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but not the US, not US troops on the ground.

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Is that even possible?

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Is that feasible?

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When you look at what happened with Japan, the reason why they surrendered, people think it's a nuclear bomb.

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I don't think it's just a nuclear bomb.

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I think it was a nuclear bombs

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and the credible threat of an invasion right off their coast

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so they're seeing the nuclear bombs hit

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and then they're seeing these fleets of naval vessels packed with american infantrymen ready to invade you know so i think

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that to me i was always curious early on

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if the regime is going to fall can the people be armed who's going to be on the ground even

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when we took out hitler we own the air

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but we own the ground too and

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that the hitler regime had nowhere to go uh so this regime right now has a lot of places to go.

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So I think that's why the president's doing the off -ramps thing.

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So I did think the off -ramps were going to be the end of it.

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That's just my thought.

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I was like, well, IRGC lost a lot here.

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The off -ramps will be the end of it.

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And that would have been, what, a five -month conflict at that point if they took the off -ramps.

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And so I was even a little bit surprised that the IRGC didn't just try to fully protect themselves, not the IRGC specifically, but the mullahs,

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the people that weren't maybe as radical as some of the top leaders in the IRGC, we're able to get some sort of a deal brokered

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and wrap the thing up in five months

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and i think that's that's what i originally predicted

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and now i think we're just seeing

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that this regime is is way more cancerous than we ever

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thought yeah i uh i mean i first learned about you

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right around the time kind of the the air campaign started i remember watching uh one of your early videos

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and just thinking like pass is super entertaining

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and just was uh really impressed with the job

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that you did i love love your content i've watched a

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ton of it um it's such a i think a useful

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position and perspective you have between your flying experience your planning experience

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and and and the window of time

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that you spent doing it being pretty relevant and

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and relative to what's going on now with the iran conflict being

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so overwhelmingly air dominant and almost entirely you know airstrike

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or air campaign focused um is there anything that surprised you from

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that kind of specific aspect of the actual air campaign standpoint

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and uh is do you have any kind of ballpark percentage

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on what airframes have been used in the campaign percentage wise hmm yeah

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so i think something that's surprising me now is there's not strikes happening at places like pickaxe mountain yeah

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and who knows maybe they just just happened i mean it's a fast movement ball game uh

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but i think early on they they well 2025 they targeted a lot of the nuclear infrastructure

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and then after that the campaign focused more on on other things and now it's shifted to the straight of Hormuz.

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But yeah, I think while we're, the one thing that's surprising to me is if we're in there doing all these operations, tag Pickaxe Mountain, make sure they can't use it, you know?

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But I think that, so that was a little surprising to me and that, who knows, that could happen at any moment.

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I think the sheer number of sorties was surprising to me.

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The numbers I saw was like 13 ,000 sorties between the U .S and Israel.

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So, I mean, just the repetition of that and the folks

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that are getting those jets launched you know the people blasting the jets off the carriers the the bases

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that are right there getting shot at with missiles

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like the the ops tempo is insane so i think that's something

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that you just can't understate how amazing that is

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and i i think everybody out there should know how hard

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that is to do for the people on the ground getting

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the jets airborne 13 000 flights i mean we're talking refueling

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them maintaining them loading weapons you know all those things are just hats off to everybody doing

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that do you know how many aircraft would contribute to those 13 000 like what is

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that average per aircraft wow yeah that's a that's a good question i think there were

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so the the publicly released numbers

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that i saw was somewhere around 200 to 300 fighter aircraft i'd say it's on the higher end of

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that to do that and then uh that probably

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that number probably includes drones but remember drone operators are sitting in there operating

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that drone as well you know they're operating it from creature air force base

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or wherever so i'm asserting i'm sure it includes drones

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but again the workhorse jets are the ones

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that are flying most of the mission

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so f -15es f -16s a -10s these fourth generation fighters

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that you know maybe they're not the sexiest thing on the block now with the f -22

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and the f -35 but they get the job done right

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if you got a if you got a phillips head screw you need a phillips head screwdriver

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and that's what these jets are yeah yeah the uh Is

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that something that that level of sorties in the op plan stuff, is that something that you would get

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that far in the weeds on where you would anticipate this many sorties per month

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or in this phase you would anticipate X number of sorties to accomplish phase one or whatever?

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Is it that detailed?

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Yeah, I think it is, but it's broken down by squadron, like roughly.

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Like, hey, this is how much your squadron is going to have to be ready to go.

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And so this many rotations, the jets are going to need to fly this many times a day.

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and this is the battle rhythm that we're going to consistently get

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and then everything else is built from that right so they're like okay with that battle rhythm

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We're going to need this many WIZOs, this many fighter pilots, this many bombs, because we assume we're going to drop this many.

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I mean, the planning is just completely dialed in all the way down to, like, the last 20 -millimeter bullet that you're going to bring.

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Yeah, wow.

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Yeah.

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You mentioned A -10s, F -15s, F -16s.

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I'm sure F -18s on the Navy side is a huge component.

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Far more of a percentage of the sorties flown by those aircraft than the fifth -gen stuff, the F -22, F -35.

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I would think so, yeah.

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Yeah, just because there's more of them, there's sheer numbers, right?

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And, yeah, thanks for catching the F -18.

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My F -18 bros are going to give me a hard time for that one.

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Yeah, the Super Hornet's amazing.

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But, yeah, I think the big thing is a lot of these stealth jets are incredible for what they do.

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But even to make them stealthy, you have to put everything inside of them.

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So it means a little less weapons load out.

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Now, the F -35, probably not as concerned about being stealth right now, but still maneuverability -wise, controllability -wise,

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i've never really seen bombs hung on the outside of the f -35 i'm sure it can be done

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but maybe more of like an air -to -air missile loadout would be on those

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so if you want to go in

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and pummel targets you got to find a big truck of a jet

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which is f -15e primarily that's the number one number two would be probably the super hornet

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and the f -16 right around about the same and

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And then obviously the A10 is kind of in a class of its own, right?

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Built for a little bit different of a purpose.

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Yeah.

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Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку

Этот урок разговорной практики уровня B2 построен на видео «F-15 Pilot Breaks Down Iran's SECRET Missile Bunkers». В этом видео 333 предложений и 4242 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 21:26. Говорящий говорит быстро, около 198 слов в минуту, поэтому звуки часто сливаются и сокращаются. 84% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка; остальные стоит разобрать перед занятием.

Ключевая лексика этого видео

Самые сложные слова из видео (15), с произношением и значением:

Слово	Произношение	Значение
missile существительное	/ˈmɪs.aɪl/	снаря́д, пу́ля
drone существительное	/dɹoʊn/	тру́тень
ballistic прилагательное	/bəˈlɪs.tɪk/	баллисти́ческий
sortie существительное	/ˈsɔɹti/	боевой вы́лет
triangulate глагол	/tɹaɪˈæŋɡjəleɪt/	триангули́ровать
proxy существительное	/ˈpɹɑk.si/	представи́тель, представи́тельница
anticipate глагол	/ænˈtɪs.ɪ.peɪt/	опережа́ть, опереди́ть
warfare существительное	/ˈwɔɹfɛɹ/	веде́ние войны́
predict глагол	/pɹɪˈdɪkt/	предска́зывать, предсказа́ть
tactic существительное	/ˈtæktɪk/	та́ктика
pickaxe существительное	/ˈpɪkˌæks/	кирка́, моты́га
resilient прилагательное	/ɹɪˈzɪl.jənt/	ги́бкий, эласти́чный
satin существительное	/ˈsæt.ɪn/	атла́с, сати́н
stealth существительное	/stɛlθ/	хи́трость, скры́тность
bunker существительное	/ˈbʌŋ.kə/	бу́нкер

Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите

Слово	Произношение	Значение
take out глагол		вынима́ть, вы́нуть
back off глагол		отступа́ть
break down глагол		ломаться, сломаться
buy off глагол		откупа́ться, откупи́ться
come out глагол	/ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/	выходи́ть, вы́йти
pull out глагол		выходи́ть, вы́йти
turn out глагол		ока́зываться, оказа́ться

Фразы, которые стоит повторять

Короткие законченные фразы из видео, которые пригодятся в повседневном разговоре:

Where do you see it?
I'm not surprised that it's taken this long.
I don't think it's just a nuclear bomb.

Грамматика в этом видео

Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:

Конструкция	В видео
Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас	has surprised · They've gotten · have perfected
Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает	being represented · was built · be crushed

Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание

Говорящий использует 105 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например they're, we're, don't. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.

Звуки «th»: stealth /stɛlθ/, rhythm /ˈɹɪð.əm/, feather /ˈfɛðə/
Звуки «sh» и «zh»: sheer /ʃɪɚ/, anticipation /ænˌtɪs.əˈpeɪ.ʃən/, liberation /ˌlɪbəˈɹeɪʃən/, negotiate /nəˈɡəʊ.ʃi.eɪt/, orientation /ˌɔː.ɹi.ənˈteɪ.ʃən/
Длинные слова — следите за ударением: triangulate /tɹaɪˈæŋɡjəleɪt/, anticipate /ænˈtɪs.ɪ.peɪt/, accurately /ˈæk.jə.ɹɪt.li/, capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, adversary /ˈæd.vəɹˌsɛɹi/

Звуки, трудные для русскоязычных:

/w/ — губы округлены, это не /v/: warfare /ˈwɔɹfɛɹ/, squadron /ˈskwɒd.ɹən/, overwhelmingly /ˌəʊ.vəˈwɛl.mɪŋ.lɪ/, anyways /ˈɛn.iˌweɪz/
/h/ — лёгкий выдох, а не русское «х»: firsthand /ˈfɜːstˌhænd/, hornet /ˈhɔɹ.nɪt/
Звонкие согласные в конце слова — не оглушайте их: explosive /ɛkˈspləʊsɪv/, firsthand /ˈfɜːstˌhænd/, invade /ɪnˈveɪd/, chord /kɔɹd/, definitive /dɪˈfɪn.ɪ.tɪv/

Как заниматься с этим видео

Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
Начните со скорости 0,75×, повторяйте предложение за предложением и вернитесь к обычной скорости, когда станет легко.
Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как missile, drone, ballistic.

Что такое техника Shadowing?

Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.

Техника шедоуинга: читать полное пошаговое руководство →

Практика Shadowing: F-15 Pilot Breaks Down Iran's SECRET Missile Bunkers - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

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Что такое техника Shadowing?