ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: The Biggest El Niño in Recorded History
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303 ประโยค
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1
Chuck, we are long overdue for an explainer on El Nino.
2
Oh, yes.
3
Okay, I don't know anything about it.
4
Okay.
5
Okay, so that's the end of the explainer.
6
Well, here we go.
7
No, but we are nearby
8
Columbia University that has their share of climate experts, in particular, Adam Sobel.
9
Adam, welcome to StarTalk.
10
Thank you.
11
You are not just an expert in climate, you specialize in extreme climate.
12
Nice.
13
Extreme weather.
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Extreme weather events, yes, and their relation to climate, yes.
15
Oh, my gosh.
16
Which means that you are super busy. Of late, yes.
17
I would suspect so.
18
And so let's just, the basics.
19
What the hell is El Nino, and who does it affect most?
20
Okay, so El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that has its center of action, as we say, in the equatorial Pacific.
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So on the equator, in the east side of the Pacific Ocean, like offshore Peru and around the Galapagos Islands,
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which is normally very cold because water from the deep ocean comes up, so it's cold relative to the tropics around it.
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The ocean temperature is colder than it would otherwise be.
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The sea surface temperature is cold compared to other places at low latitudes.
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Got it.
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And there's lots of fish because there's nutrients coming up and all that stuff.
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Darwin, you know, discovered all the animals there.
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So it's normally very cold, and in an El Nino event, it warms up.
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So the upwelling stops, the surface water becomes warmer, and that shifts the circulation in the atmosphere, too, across the whole Pacific.
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Why?
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Why the atmosphere?
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You're talking about the ocean.
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Places in the tropics that have high sea surface temperature tend to be places that have a lot of rain,
34
because the warm and humid air that's close to that warm surface water is buoyant and rises,
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and so you get, normally like the western part of the tropical
36
Pacific around Indonesia is very rainy, and the east around Peru is very dry,
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and that's associated with the warm sea surface temperature in the west and the cold in the east.
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So when the east warms up, the rain shifts east, and as you know, probably, when rain, water condenses in the atmosphere,
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there's latent heating associated with that.
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It warms the air, and so that affects the circulation of the whole atmosphere.
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So the so -called walker circulation shifts.
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So that, the rising shifts eastward, and that rearranges the whole circulation of the atmosphere globally.
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Right, so it has it has what we call teleconnections which affect things far outside the tropics
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So it's a it's a global phenomenon actually right, but one that starts in the tropical
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Pacific and has its own sort of dynamics
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It makes it happen as if my memory serves this is associated with winter months
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That's right northern hemisphere winter months.
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That's that's right I mean it the the cycle an El Nino event can last as long as about a year
49
They usually get going in spring or summer as this one did and we're in the middle of one now
50
Yes, we're in the middle of a big one now and the biggest one in a long time
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But they usually have their maximum amplitude in the northern hemisphere winter and the name
52
El Nino is a Spanish name referring to Christmas The real problem here is we have to stop this Mexican weather
53
They're from coming on to our borders.
54
That's the problem.
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You look down and you say, if the border was secure, we could keep these Ninos out.
56
So it seems to me you guys now have a scale to indicate the severity of the El Nino.
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And what is your index there to make that measurement?
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Yeah, there's a bunch of different indices people use, but the most common one is the so -called Nino 3 .4,
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which is what we do is you draw little boxes in the pacific ocean in different places
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and 3 .4 refers to a particular box in the sort of eastern part of the equatorial pacific
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and then we measure the sea surface temperature anomaly
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so it's average in that box in
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that box how different is it than either the historical average
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or now we have a new way where we compare
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it to the rest of the tropics today as a way of kind of taking out global warming
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and there's reasons to do that but they're slightly different
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but basically it's the sea surface temperature anomaly in that box
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which means how how much warmer than average is it in
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that place because that's the the place
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that seems to most reflect the bigger phenomenon and um yeah
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so so now we apparently we're about three degrees celsius oh wow in that
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which is a very very big number yeah that's why they're calling
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it super el nino right right anything over two is considered super for whatever that's what right
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so this sounds like super duper right no it may turn out to use that word you have my permission
75
Well, I mean, it's, you know, it's an arbitrary threshold.
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It's not like something radically different happens at 2 .1 versus 1 .9 degrees.
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But this one is forecast to be possibly the biggest one since we have modern data.
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So can you tell us exactly how it will change the weather that we experience?
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Because a lot of people psychologically connect weather to climate.
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Yeah, El Nino events have sort of standard patterns that happen with them.
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And they don't always happen exactly the same way, but they're pretty repeatable, typically.
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And El Nino doesn't tell you what weather's going to happen in a single day,
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but they tell you how the seasonal patterns are going to change.
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So a typical
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El Nino event has wet weather across the southern
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United States, including
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Southern California, dry in the Pacific Northwest.
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Hurricanes in the Atlantic are suppressed.
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That's why it's been dead.
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Atlantic hurricanes have been dead.
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This past year, there was no hurricane -level storm, is that correct?
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I think that is true, that we have not had an actual...
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So this is how you would account for that, but someone naively would approach that and say, you alarmist or clueless.
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You said the weather would get worse, and we didn't have a single hurricane hitting the east coast of the United States.
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So you all have your head up your ass.
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And you want me to refute that?
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No, but...
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So that's my starter point to say, you have an explanation for that, that is triggered by the El Nino.
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Right.
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I mean, if what you're saying is like, how come climate change doesn't make everything get worse year after year?
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There's a lot of natural variability on top of the, I mean, first of all,
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the picture of global warming and hurricanes is a long, complicated subject.
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It's not as simple as all the storms get worse everywhere at the time.
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But on top of the global warming trend, which is there in many different, you know, many, many different metrics around the world.
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When you say many metrics, it's many different branches of scientific inquiry that arrive at the same conclusions.
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From migration patterns and, you know, animal behavior and glaciers and atmosphere, right?
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So this is not just you guys, you know, piling up in a lab saying, let's tell everybody that this is happening.
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You have people you never even met who don't even publish in your same journals arriving at these same conclusions.
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Right.
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There's a lot of global changes, and a lot of them are attributable to warming.
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To warming, although a lot are attributable to other things, but yeah.
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Can you talk about what an El Nino does to the jet stream?
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because you started off by saying the atmosphere and global
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and a lot of people don't know
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that you know the the earth's atmosphere is a fluid and
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so it is one atmosphere it's not like we have our atmosphere over there they have their atmosphere
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so what happens to the jet stream yeah as carl sagan said uh air molecules don't carry passports yeah
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they just move wherever the hell they want yeah yeah
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so what happens to the jet stream right the jet stream um typically contracts a little closer to the equator,
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which is actually the big reason why the Atlantic hurricanes are suppressed, because it makes wind shear over the hurricane region.
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Right.
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But the jet stream, besides shifting a little bit equator, it also gets wiggles in it of a particular character.
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And so some of these effects like, you know, like the wet weather in, you know, in LA or the dry weather in Seattle
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or the many other impacts of El Nino
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that happen at those kind of middle latitudes are results of wiggles in the jet stream
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that come out of the shifts in the tropical circulation that then radiate into the jet stream.
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Why does El Nino happen at all?
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Yeah, it's understood to be a coupled atmosphere -ocean phenomenon,
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meaning that if either the atmosphere or ocean weren't involved, it wouldn't happen.
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So you have to try to picture it's cold on the equator in the east
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and it's warm in the west and the wind at the surface blows from the east towards the west.
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And that's because it's warm in the west and cold in the east, but it also causes it because the westward blowing wind causes upwelling.
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It pushes on the ocean in such a way
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that cold water has to come up from below to replace the water that's being pushed away.
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And so the wind that's blowing toward the west makes upwelling, which makes it cold.
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But the fact that it's cold made the wind.
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So there's a circular thing where they're both influencing each other
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and similarly if that starts to if something starts to break
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that pattern if something makes the wind slow down then it'll start to warm up under it
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and then that'll make it slow down more
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so there's a sort of positive feedback where these things reinforce themselves what triggers it is very subtle
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and not always known i mean people can point to specific events like
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and i actually don't know with this one i haven't paid attention but there's often not a single clear trigger
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Sometimes there's what we call
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Madden -Julian oscillation events, which are like, that's another weather phenomenon that happens in more like weeks rather than months to years.
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Is it good to have a weather phenomenon named after you, or is that bad?
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It's very good.
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But that's a phenomenon where you get large regions of rainy weather and winds blowing from the west,
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which is not the norm in the tropics, that move eastward.
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So they're almost like mini
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El Ninos that kind of move across the Pacific, and that's thought to sometimes trigger them.
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But it's often not a clear, there's often not a single clear trigger.
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What's the earliest
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El Nino we have on record?
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Reliable data?
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That's a tough one to answer.
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The instrumental record goes back somewhere into the 19th century, although it gets sketchier as you're going further back.
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As you'd expect, of course.
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The best is after satellites.
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Before that, you have ship records that people are patching up between and then before that you have paleo proxies.
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So people look at coral and other things.
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So what's the earliest depends kind of what data you're willing to accept.
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I'm trying to make a connection.
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If you're gonna say that climate change, global warming is affecting
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El Nino, but we've had
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El Ninos for centuries, possibly even longer based on your paleo data, where can you implicate climate change,
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global warming with the El Ninos that we see?
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Yeah, I mean, El Nino and climate change is a complicated subject.
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It's true that it's a natural phenomenon.
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It would happen even if there was no people.
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It's very likely that human -induced climate change affects it
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because it affects almost everything in the climate system to one degree or another.
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How it affects it is quite unclear as far as my understanding of literature.
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The models say a lot of different things.
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Actually, what the models predict is that the average state of the climate in the Pacific should look more and more like
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El Nino as time goes on, and that has not happened.
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It has actually gone the other way for the last sort of few decades.
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And we're all trying to figure out what that means.
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But second of all, there have been a bunch of huge
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El Ninos at the same time.
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So, you know, big events.
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97, 98 was at that time the largest one of the century.
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But then 15, 16 was about the same or maybe even stronger.
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And this one's probably going to beat both of them.
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So we're having these huge events.
186
Is that a global warming signal?
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There's some people, you know, some evidence suggests it is but it's it's pretty uh you can't say it statistically
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because we don't have the sample isn't big enough they only happen every few years
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so you know in 100 years we don't have
190
that many of them but that is not to say
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that all of the information
192
and the data on climate human cost climate change is not exactly what it is
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which is correct the fact that there's el nino doesn't by itself tell you anything about the global warming science.
194
It's all related, and in fact, El Nino also warms the average temper of the whole planet by a few tenths of a degree.
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It's like, it's a natural part of, you get extra global warming when there's an El Nino, but it's not human -inducing.
196
So professionally, are you primarily a modeler on computers, or are you a theorist?
197
How would you characterize what kind of a climate scientist you are?
198
I used to say I was a theorist, but I wouldn't say that anymore.
199
Because all the theories have come true!
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We don't we don't have as clear a distinction between theory.
201
First of all, we don't have experiments right in this field
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We only have objects as an astro the astrophysics, right?
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We don't have experiments.
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So you have what you're given
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It's an observational science.
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So like many people I work with observations theory and models
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But I guess I'd be considered more of a model than anything else
208
So I love models
209
because that's the it's how we explore our understanding of nature in the future got it
210
and in my world when we model colliding galaxies
211
or you know the patient doesn't die there's not an insurance claim right
212
if I'm wrong right whereas
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if you you your climate community predict something based on a model
214
and you expect people to respond to it
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and the model goes astray from reality yeah that's hard to mend
216
that relationship back with the public how what do you do about that are Are you asking about any particular,
217
I mean, we do many different kinds of forecasts, weather, seasonal climate, global warming.
218
Broadly.
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Broadly.
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Well, see, I think what's more important is, and not to rephrase your question, but to rephrase your question,
221
how does the public know that it can put faith and trust in the overarching modeling of climate progressions?
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Right.
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I mean, first of all, at the big picture, the predictions have been pretty good.
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Yeah, I mean the models that Jim Hansen
225
and others were making in the 70s and 80s as far as to how much global warming
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We would see have been pretty close to what's happened
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Mm -hmm and a lot of the other predictions have been true as well
228
Like that the Arctic warms much faster than everywhere else
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Ice melts that the stratosphere cools while it warms.
230
That's a greenhouse gas signature.
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There's a whole bunch of got it
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So fingerprints that the macroscopic phenomena.
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Yeah You check the boxes there.
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Yeah, and anything more detailed than
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that there was not a lot of confidence in to begin with so and
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when it comes to global warming
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I mean the big picture the amount of warming has been
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pretty well predicted at a global scale as we say many
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of the other macro things at a detailed level the uncertainties get very big you know when When it comes to...
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how specific kinds of weather extremes are going to change in some particular spot.
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Because that's what anybody cares about.
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You know, is it going to rain on, is my house going to flood on the Florida coast?
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And I think that's the real challenge of communicating the severity and urgency of human -caused climate change.
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Because if you try to tie it to one single event in the future, then, you know, you're going about it the wrong way.
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But if you look at it like, here's the trend, the trend is just going to continue to get worse.
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We are currently in the hottest year ever, ever, and the last five years were the hottest five years ever.
247
Then you can start to say, hey, wait a minute, wait.
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So I think that's what's really important.
249
And we have to kind of move away from, you know, looking at it.
250
As I said, climate is not weather.
251
And just really keep it to climate.
252
Because if you want to look at singular events, and we missed a huge opportunity the glacier collapse that just happened
253
that everybody so many people were like oh that's AI
254
because that's how horrific it was it was that bad
255
that people were like that's AI I mean AI video yeah AI video
256
that didn't really happen like yeah buddy
257
because that's what real life disaster looks like okay like Zemeckis can't think of
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that okay so you know um but
259
that is something we could say 100 % attributable to
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human -caused climate nothing is a hundred percent general rule of thumb nothing
261
but when I say what I'm saying the closest it's a glacier melt that's what was predicted that's what happened
262
and then the glacier collapse I think the skepticism
263
that we have on climate science like so much
264
so many other subjects now is is a consequence of political polarization I don't think it's
265
because people are looking at the scientific evidence and thinking, oh, but your forecast was off, you know, outside the error bars that you gave.
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I just, I'm skeptical of that, that we should communicate somehow the uncertainty differently.
267
And what would you say as a climate scientist would be beneficial to better communicate this issue?
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I don't know.
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I mean, as I said, I'm just, you know, there's a lot of ways that I think as scientists,
270
we're not trained to communicate to the public.
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A lot of us have to unlearn how to talk like we learn to talk to our colleagues
272
there's a lot of things I don't want to I don't mean to diminish the question
273
we can always communicate better at the same time I don't really buy the line
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that like people don't believe it because we didn't say it right
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because you do hear
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that yeah I don't believe you know
277
it's like you should always be positive no
278
you should make people afraid no
279
you should I don't know people have all the emotions
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they're gonna happen you gotta no I agree with you gotta be genuine don't use jargon you know
281
You guys know.
282
I mean, you're the experts, right?
283
Dude, thanks for coming.
284
For taking a subway ride three stops to come down from Colombia to my office here at the Planetarium.
285
Thank you.
286
Thanks for having me.
287
All right, that's an explainer, Chuck.
288
That was great.
289
Right in your zone.
290
You know I love it.
291
Because you a climate dude.
292
The more we talk about climate, the happier I am.
293
That's evident.
294
All right.
295
This has been another StarTalk explainer.
296
This one on El Nino and associated climate phenomena.
297
And thank you again for being here.
298
Neil deGrasse Tyson, your personal astrophysicist.
299
Keep looking up.
300
Space fact.
301
In China, where milk is not a popular beverage among adults, they don't call our galaxy the Milky Way.
302
Instead, it's called Yin He, translated the Silver River.
303
We'll see you next time.
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คำศัพท์และข้อสังเกตด้านการพูดสำหรับบทเรียนนี้
บทเรียนฝึกพูดนี้ใช้วิดีโอ “The Biggest El Niño in Recorded History” เป็นสื่อ คำที่ถูกพูดซ้ำบ่อยที่สุด: nino, climate, weather, global, happen วิดีโอนี้มี 303 ประโยค และ 3439 คำ สำหรับฝึกพูดตาม ช่วงที่มีเสียงพูดยาว 18:33 ผู้พูดพูดเร็ว ประมาณ 185 คำต่อนาที จึงมีการเชื่อมเสียงและลดเสียงค่อนข้างมาก 84% ของคำอยู่ใน 3,000 คำที่ใช้บ่อยที่สุดในภาษาอังกฤษ ส่วนที่เหลือควรดูไว้ก่อนเริ่มฝึก
คำศัพท์สำคัญในวิดีโอนี้
คำที่ควรเรียนรู้ 15 คำจากวิดีโอ พร้อมคำอ่านและความหมาย:
| คำศัพท์ | คำอ่าน | ความหมาย |
|---|---|---|
| atmosphere คำนาม | /ˈætməsˌfɪɹ/ | บรรยากาศ |
| phenomenon คำนาม | /fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/ | ปรากฏการณ์ |
| hurricane คำนาม | /ˈhʌɹɪkeɪn/ | เฮอริเคน |
| trigger คำนาม | /ˈtɹɪɡɚ/ | ไก, ไกปืน |
| circulation คำนาม | /ˌsɝkjʊˈleɪʃən/ | การไหลเวียน, การหมุนเวียน |
| predict คำกริยา | /pɹɪˈdɪkt/ | ทำนาย |
| glacier คำนาม | /ˈɡleɪ.ʃɚ/ | ธารน้ำแข็ง |
| forecast คำนาม | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | การพยากรณ์ |
| complicated คำคุณศัพท์ | /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/ | ซับซ้อน |
| arrive คำกริยา | /əˈɹaɪv/ | มา, ถึง |
| experiment คำนาม | /ɪkˈspɛɹ.ə.mənt/ | การทดลอง |
| galaxy คำนาม | /ˈɡæl.ək.si/ | ดาราจักร, กาแล็กซี |
| scientist คำนาม | /ˈsaɪəntəst/ | นักวิทยาศาสตร์ |
| collapse คำกริยา | /kəˈlæps/ | พัง, ถล่ม |
| metric คำคุณศัพท์ | /ˈmɛt.ɹɪk/ | เมตริก |
กริยาวลีที่คุณจะได้ยิน
| คำศัพท์ | ความหมาย |
|---|---|
| go back คำกริยา | กลับไป |
ประโยคที่ควรฝึกพูดซ้ำ
ประโยคสั้น ๆ ที่สมบูรณ์จากวิดีโอ ซึ่งนำไปใช้ในบทสนทนาประจำวันได้:
- You're talking about the ocean.
- They're from coming on to our borders.
- As you'd expect, of course.
- I'm trying to make a connection.
- How would you characterize what kind of a climate scientist you are?
ไวยากรณ์ในวิดีโอนี้
โครงสร้างที่ผู้พูดใช้บ่อยที่สุด พร้อมคำพูดจริงจากวิดีโอ:
| โครงสร้าง | ในวิดีโอ |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + กริยาช่อง 3 — เหตุการณ์ในอดีตที่ยังเกี่ยวข้องกับปัจจุบัน | it's been · have been · have not had |
| Passive voice be + กริยาช่อง 3 — เน้นสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้น ไม่ใช่ผู้กระทำ | is associated · is considered · are suppressed |
| Relative clauses who / which + อนุประโยค — ข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมเกี่ยวกับคนหรือสิ่งของ | trend, which is · upwelling, which makes · events, which are |
การออกเสียงที่ควรระวัง
ผู้พูดใช้รูปย่อและรูปลดเสียง 72 ครั้ง เช่น don't, you're, they're ให้พูดแบบสั้นตามที่ได้ยิน
- เสียง “th”: threshold /ˈθɹɛʃ(h)oʊld/, thumb /ˈθʌm/, theorist /ˈθiːəɹəst/
- เสียง “sh” และ “zh”: circulation /ˌsɝkjʊˈleɪʃən/, glacier /ˈɡleɪ.ʃɚ/, conclusion /kənˈkluːʒən/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, explanation /ˌɛkspləˈneɪʃən/
- คำยาว — ลงเสียงหนักให้ถูกพยางค์: phenomenon /fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/, communicate /kəˈmjuːnɪkeɪt/, circulation /ˌsɝkjʊˈleɪʃən/, complicated /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/, experiment /ɪkˈspɛɹ.ə.mənt/
เสียงที่คนไทยมักออกเสียงยาก:
- เสียงท้ายคำ — ออกเสียงให้ครบ ไม่เปลี่ยนเป็นตัวสะกดแบบไทย: tropical /ˈtɹɑ.pɪ.kəl/, arrive /əˈɹaɪv/, collapse /kəˈlæps/, seasonal /ˈsiːzənəl/, suppress /səˈpɹɛs/
- /v/ — ไม่ใช่ /w/ ให้ฟันบนแตะริมฝีปากล่าง: arrive /əˈɹaɪv/, severity /səˈvɛɹ.ə.ti/, relative /ˈɹɛl.ə.tɪv/, versus /ˈvɝsəs/, wherever /(h)wɛɹˈɛvɚ/
- /z/ — เสียงก้อง ไม่ใช่ /s/: seasonal /ˈsiːzənəl/, whereas /(h)wɛɹˈæz/, disaster /dɪˈzɑːs.təː/, observation /ˌɑbzɚˈveɪʃn̩/, translate /tɹænzˈleɪt/
วิธีฝึกกับวิดีโอนี้
- ฟังวิดีโอให้จบหนึ่งรอบโดยยังไม่ต้องพูด แล้วจดคำที่ยังไม่รู้จัก
- เริ่มที่ความเร็ว 0.75× พูดตามทีละประโยค แล้วกลับไปใช้ความเร็วปกติเมื่อเริ่มคล่อง
- อัดเสียงตัวเองแล้วเทียบกับต้นฉบับ โดยสังเกตคำอย่าง atmosphere, phenomenon, hurricane เป็นพิเศษ
เทคนิค Shadowing คืออะไร?
Shadowing เป็นเทคนิคการเรียนรู้ภาษาที่ได้รับการรับรองทางวิทยาศาสตร์ พัฒนาขึ้นสำหรับการฝึกนักแปลมืออาชีพ วิธีการนี้เรียบง่ายแต่ทรงพลัง: คุณฟังเสียงภาษาอังกฤษจากเจ้าของภาษาและพูดตามทันที — เหมือนเงาที่ตามผู้พูดด้วยช่วงเวลาห่าง 1-2 วินาที การวิจัยแสดงว่าเทคนิคนี้ปรับปรุงความแม่นยำในการออกเสียง ทำนองเสียง จังหวะ การเชื่อมเสียง การฟังเข้าใจ และความคล่องแคล่วในการพูดได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ