Pratica di Shadowing: The Biggest El Niño in Recorded History - Impara a parlare inglese con i video
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1
Chuck, we are long overdue for an explainer on El Nino.
2
Oh, yes.
3
Okay, I don't know anything about it.
4
Okay.
5
Okay, so that's the end of the explainer.
6
Well, here we go.
7
No, but we are nearby
8
Columbia University that has their share of climate experts, in particular, Adam Sobel.
9
Adam, welcome to StarTalk.
10
Thank you.
11
You are not just an expert in climate, you specialize in extreme climate.
12
Nice.
13
Extreme weather.
14
Extreme weather events, yes, and their relation to climate, yes.
15
Oh, my gosh.
16
Which means that you are super busy. Of late, yes.
17
I would suspect so.
18
And so let's just, the basics.
19
What the hell is El Nino, and who does it affect most?
20
Okay, so El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that has its center of action, as we say, in the equatorial Pacific.
21
So on the equator, in the east side of the Pacific Ocean, like offshore Peru and around the Galapagos Islands,
22
which is normally very cold because water from the deep ocean comes up, so it's cold relative to the tropics around it.
23
The ocean temperature is colder than it would otherwise be.
24
The sea surface temperature is cold compared to other places at low latitudes.
25
Got it.
26
And there's lots of fish because there's nutrients coming up and all that stuff.
27
Darwin, you know, discovered all the animals there.
28
So it's normally very cold, and in an El Nino event, it warms up.
29
So the upwelling stops, the surface water becomes warmer, and that shifts the circulation in the atmosphere, too, across the whole Pacific.
30
Why?
31
Why the atmosphere?
32
You're talking about the ocean.
33
Places in the tropics that have high sea surface temperature tend to be places that have a lot of rain,
34
because the warm and humid air that's close to that warm surface water is buoyant and rises,
35
and so you get, normally like the western part of the tropical
36
Pacific around Indonesia is very rainy, and the east around Peru is very dry,
37
and that's associated with the warm sea surface temperature in the west and the cold in the east.
38
So when the east warms up, the rain shifts east, and as you know, probably, when rain, water condenses in the atmosphere,
39
there's latent heating associated with that.
40
It warms the air, and so that affects the circulation of the whole atmosphere.
41
So the so -called walker circulation shifts.
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So that, the rising shifts eastward, and that rearranges the whole circulation of the atmosphere globally.
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Right, so it has it has what we call teleconnections which affect things far outside the tropics
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So it's a it's a global phenomenon actually right, but one that starts in the tropical
45
Pacific and has its own sort of dynamics
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It makes it happen as if my memory serves this is associated with winter months
47
That's right northern hemisphere winter months.
48
That's that's right I mean it the the cycle an El Nino event can last as long as about a year
49
They usually get going in spring or summer as this one did and we're in the middle of one now
50
Yes, we're in the middle of a big one now and the biggest one in a long time
51
But they usually have their maximum amplitude in the northern hemisphere winter and the name
52
El Nino is a Spanish name referring to Christmas The real problem here is we have to stop this Mexican weather
53
They're from coming on to our borders.
54
That's the problem.
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You look down and you say, if the border was secure, we could keep these Ninos out.
56
So it seems to me you guys now have a scale to indicate the severity of the El Nino.
57
And what is your index there to make that measurement?
58
Yeah, there's a bunch of different indices people use, but the most common one is the so -called Nino 3 .4,
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which is what we do is you draw little boxes in the pacific ocean in different places
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and 3 .4 refers to a particular box in the sort of eastern part of the equatorial pacific
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and then we measure the sea surface temperature anomaly
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so it's average in that box in
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that box how different is it than either the historical average
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or now we have a new way where we compare
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it to the rest of the tropics today as a way of kind of taking out global warming
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and there's reasons to do that but they're slightly different
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but basically it's the sea surface temperature anomaly in that box
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which means how how much warmer than average is it in
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that place because that's the the place
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that seems to most reflect the bigger phenomenon and um yeah
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so so now we apparently we're about three degrees celsius oh wow in that
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which is a very very big number yeah that's why they're calling
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it super el nino right right anything over two is considered super for whatever that's what right
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so this sounds like super duper right no it may turn out to use that word you have my permission
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Well, I mean, it's, you know, it's an arbitrary threshold.
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It's not like something radically different happens at 2 .1 versus 1 .9 degrees.
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But this one is forecast to be possibly the biggest one since we have modern data.
78
So can you tell us exactly how it will change the weather that we experience?
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Because a lot of people psychologically connect weather to climate.
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Yeah, El Nino events have sort of standard patterns that happen with them.
81
And they don't always happen exactly the same way, but they're pretty repeatable, typically.
82
And El Nino doesn't tell you what weather's going to happen in a single day,
83
but they tell you how the seasonal patterns are going to change.
84
So a typical
85
El Nino event has wet weather across the southern
86
United States, including
87
Southern California, dry in the Pacific Northwest.
88
Hurricanes in the Atlantic are suppressed.
89
That's why it's been dead.
90
Atlantic hurricanes have been dead.
91
This past year, there was no hurricane -level storm, is that correct?
92
I think that is true, that we have not had an actual...
93
So this is how you would account for that, but someone naively would approach that and say, you alarmist or clueless.
94
You said the weather would get worse, and we didn't have a single hurricane hitting the east coast of the United States.
95
So you all have your head up your ass.
96
And you want me to refute that?
97
No, but...
98
So that's my starter point to say, you have an explanation for that, that is triggered by the El Nino.
99
Right.
100
I mean, if what you're saying is like, how come climate change doesn't make everything get worse year after year?
101
There's a lot of natural variability on top of the, I mean, first of all,
102
the picture of global warming and hurricanes is a long, complicated subject.
103
It's not as simple as all the storms get worse everywhere at the time.
104
But on top of the global warming trend, which is there in many different, you know, many, many different metrics around the world.
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When you say many metrics, it's many different branches of scientific inquiry that arrive at the same conclusions.
106
From migration patterns and, you know, animal behavior and glaciers and atmosphere, right?
107
So this is not just you guys, you know, piling up in a lab saying, let's tell everybody that this is happening.
108
You have people you never even met who don't even publish in your same journals arriving at these same conclusions.
109
Right.
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There's a lot of global changes, and a lot of them are attributable to warming.
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To warming, although a lot are attributable to other things, but yeah.
112
Can you talk about what an El Nino does to the jet stream?
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because you started off by saying the atmosphere and global
114
and a lot of people don't know
115
that you know the the earth's atmosphere is a fluid and
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so it is one atmosphere it's not like we have our atmosphere over there they have their atmosphere
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so what happens to the jet stream yeah as carl sagan said uh air molecules don't carry passports yeah
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they just move wherever the hell they want yeah yeah
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so what happens to the jet stream right the jet stream um typically contracts a little closer to the equator,
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which is actually the big reason why the Atlantic hurricanes are suppressed, because it makes wind shear over the hurricane region.
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Right.
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But the jet stream, besides shifting a little bit equator, it also gets wiggles in it of a particular character.
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And so some of these effects like, you know, like the wet weather in, you know, in LA or the dry weather in Seattle
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or the many other impacts of El Nino
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that happen at those kind of middle latitudes are results of wiggles in the jet stream
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that come out of the shifts in the tropical circulation that then radiate into the jet stream.
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Why does El Nino happen at all?
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Yeah, it's understood to be a coupled atmosphere -ocean phenomenon,
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meaning that if either the atmosphere or ocean weren't involved, it wouldn't happen.
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So you have to try to picture it's cold on the equator in the east
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and it's warm in the west and the wind at the surface blows from the east towards the west.
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And that's because it's warm in the west and cold in the east, but it also causes it because the westward blowing wind causes upwelling.
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It pushes on the ocean in such a way
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that cold water has to come up from below to replace the water that's being pushed away.
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And so the wind that's blowing toward the west makes upwelling, which makes it cold.
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But the fact that it's cold made the wind.
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So there's a circular thing where they're both influencing each other
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and similarly if that starts to if something starts to break
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that pattern if something makes the wind slow down then it'll start to warm up under it
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and then that'll make it slow down more
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so there's a sort of positive feedback where these things reinforce themselves what triggers it is very subtle
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and not always known i mean people can point to specific events like
143
and i actually don't know with this one i haven't paid attention but there's often not a single clear trigger
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Sometimes there's what we call
145
Madden -Julian oscillation events, which are like, that's another weather phenomenon that happens in more like weeks rather than months to years.
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Is it good to have a weather phenomenon named after you, or is that bad?
147
It's very good.
148
But that's a phenomenon where you get large regions of rainy weather and winds blowing from the west,
149
which is not the norm in the tropics, that move eastward.
150
So they're almost like mini
151
El Ninos that kind of move across the Pacific, and that's thought to sometimes trigger them.
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But it's often not a clear, there's often not a single clear trigger.
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What's the earliest
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El Nino we have on record?
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Reliable data?
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That's a tough one to answer.
157
The instrumental record goes back somewhere into the 19th century, although it gets sketchier as you're going further back.
158
As you'd expect, of course.
159
The best is after satellites.
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Before that, you have ship records that people are patching up between and then before that you have paleo proxies.
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So people look at coral and other things.
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So what's the earliest depends kind of what data you're willing to accept.
163
I'm trying to make a connection.
164
If you're gonna say that climate change, global warming is affecting
165
El Nino, but we've had
166
El Ninos for centuries, possibly even longer based on your paleo data, where can you implicate climate change,
167
global warming with the El Ninos that we see?
168
Yeah, I mean, El Nino and climate change is a complicated subject.
169
It's true that it's a natural phenomenon.
170
It would happen even if there was no people.
171
It's very likely that human -induced climate change affects it
172
because it affects almost everything in the climate system to one degree or another.
173
How it affects it is quite unclear as far as my understanding of literature.
174
The models say a lot of different things.
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Actually, what the models predict is that the average state of the climate in the Pacific should look more and more like
176
El Nino as time goes on, and that has not happened.
177
It has actually gone the other way for the last sort of few decades.
178
And we're all trying to figure out what that means.
179
But second of all, there have been a bunch of huge
180
El Ninos at the same time.
181
So, you know, big events.
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97, 98 was at that time the largest one of the century.
183
But then 15, 16 was about the same or maybe even stronger.
184
And this one's probably going to beat both of them.
185
So we're having these huge events.
186
Is that a global warming signal?
187
There's some people, you know, some evidence suggests it is but it's it's pretty uh you can't say it statistically
188
because we don't have the sample isn't big enough they only happen every few years
189
so you know in 100 years we don't have
190
that many of them but that is not to say
191
that all of the information
192
and the data on climate human cost climate change is not exactly what it is
193
which is correct the fact that there's el nino doesn't by itself tell you anything about the global warming science.
194
It's all related, and in fact, El Nino also warms the average temper of the whole planet by a few tenths of a degree.
195
It's like, it's a natural part of, you get extra global warming when there's an El Nino, but it's not human -inducing.
196
So professionally, are you primarily a modeler on computers, or are you a theorist?
197
How would you characterize what kind of a climate scientist you are?
198
I used to say I was a theorist, but I wouldn't say that anymore.
199
Because all the theories have come true!
200
We don't we don't have as clear a distinction between theory.
201
First of all, we don't have experiments right in this field
202
We only have objects as an astro the astrophysics, right?
203
We don't have experiments.
204
So you have what you're given
205
It's an observational science.
206
So like many people I work with observations theory and models
207
But I guess I'd be considered more of a model than anything else
208
So I love models
209
because that's the it's how we explore our understanding of nature in the future got it
210
and in my world when we model colliding galaxies
211
or you know the patient doesn't die there's not an insurance claim right
212
if I'm wrong right whereas
213
if you you your climate community predict something based on a model
214
and you expect people to respond to it
215
and the model goes astray from reality yeah that's hard to mend
216
that relationship back with the public how what do you do about that are Are you asking about any particular,
217
I mean, we do many different kinds of forecasts, weather, seasonal climate, global warming.
218
Broadly.
219
Broadly.
220
Well, see, I think what's more important is, and not to rephrase your question, but to rephrase your question,
221
how does the public know that it can put faith and trust in the overarching modeling of climate progressions?
222
Right.
223
I mean, first of all, at the big picture, the predictions have been pretty good.
224
Yeah, I mean the models that Jim Hansen
225
and others were making in the 70s and 80s as far as to how much global warming
226
We would see have been pretty close to what's happened
227
Mm -hmm and a lot of the other predictions have been true as well
228
Like that the Arctic warms much faster than everywhere else
229
Ice melts that the stratosphere cools while it warms.
230
That's a greenhouse gas signature.
231
There's a whole bunch of got it
232
So fingerprints that the macroscopic phenomena.
233
Yeah You check the boxes there.
234
Yeah, and anything more detailed than
235
that there was not a lot of confidence in to begin with so and
236
when it comes to global warming
237
I mean the big picture the amount of warming has been
238
pretty well predicted at a global scale as we say many
239
of the other macro things at a detailed level the uncertainties get very big you know when When it comes to...
240
how specific kinds of weather extremes are going to change in some particular spot.
241
Because that's what anybody cares about.
242
You know, is it going to rain on, is my house going to flood on the Florida coast?
243
And I think that's the real challenge of communicating the severity and urgency of human -caused climate change.
244
Because if you try to tie it to one single event in the future, then, you know, you're going about it the wrong way.
245
But if you look at it like, here's the trend, the trend is just going to continue to get worse.
246
We are currently in the hottest year ever, ever, and the last five years were the hottest five years ever.
247
Then you can start to say, hey, wait a minute, wait.
248
So I think that's what's really important.
249
And we have to kind of move away from, you know, looking at it.
250
As I said, climate is not weather.
251
And just really keep it to climate.
252
Because if you want to look at singular events, and we missed a huge opportunity the glacier collapse that just happened
253
that everybody so many people were like oh that's AI
254
because that's how horrific it was it was that bad
255
that people were like that's AI I mean AI video yeah AI video
256
that didn't really happen like yeah buddy
257
because that's what real life disaster looks like okay like Zemeckis can't think of
258
that okay so you know um but
259
that is something we could say 100 % attributable to
260
human -caused climate nothing is a hundred percent general rule of thumb nothing
261
but when I say what I'm saying the closest it's a glacier melt that's what was predicted that's what happened
262
and then the glacier collapse I think the skepticism
263
that we have on climate science like so much
264
so many other subjects now is is a consequence of political polarization I don't think it's
265
because people are looking at the scientific evidence and thinking, oh, but your forecast was off, you know, outside the error bars that you gave.
266
I just, I'm skeptical of that, that we should communicate somehow the uncertainty differently.
267
And what would you say as a climate scientist would be beneficial to better communicate this issue?
268
I don't know.
269
I mean, as I said, I'm just, you know, there's a lot of ways that I think as scientists,
270
we're not trained to communicate to the public.
271
A lot of us have to unlearn how to talk like we learn to talk to our colleagues
272
there's a lot of things I don't want to I don't mean to diminish the question
273
we can always communicate better at the same time I don't really buy the line
274
that like people don't believe it because we didn't say it right
275
because you do hear
276
that yeah I don't believe you know
277
it's like you should always be positive no
278
you should make people afraid no
279
you should I don't know people have all the emotions
280
they're gonna happen you gotta no I agree with you gotta be genuine don't use jargon you know
281
You guys know.
282
I mean, you're the experts, right?
283
Dude, thanks for coming.
284
For taking a subway ride three stops to come down from Colombia to my office here at the Planetarium.
285
Thank you.
286
Thanks for having me.
287
All right, that's an explainer, Chuck.
288
That was great.
289
Right in your zone.
290
You know I love it.
291
Because you a climate dude.
292
The more we talk about climate, the happier I am.
293
That's evident.
294
All right.
295
This has been another StarTalk explainer.
296
This one on El Nino and associated climate phenomena.
297
And thank you again for being here.
298
Neil deGrasse Tyson, your personal astrophysicist.
299
Keep looking up.
300
Space fact.
301
In China, where milk is not a popular beverage among adults, they don't call our galaxy the Milky Way.
302
Instead, it's called Yin He, translated the Silver River.
303
We'll see you next time.
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Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione
Questa lezione di conversazione si basa sul video “The Biggest El Niño in Recorded History”. Le parole che ritornano più spesso: nino, climate, weather, global, happen. Questo video contiene 303 frasi e 3439 parole da ripetere con lo shadowing. Il parlato dura 18:33. Chi parla va veloce, circa 185 parole al minuto: aspettati suoni legati e ridotti. Il 84% delle parole rientra nelle 3.000 più comuni dell’inglese; conviene studiare le altre prima di iniziare.
Vocaboli chiave di questo video
15 parole del video che vale la pena imparare, con pronuncia e significato:
| Parola | Pronuncia | Significato |
|---|---|---|
| atmosphere sostantivo | /ˈætməsˌfɪɹ/ | atmosfera |
| phenomenon sostantivo | /fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/ | fenomeno |
| hurricane sostantivo | /ˈhʌɹɪkeɪn/ | uragano |
| trigger sostantivo | /ˈtɹɪɡɚ/ | grilletto |
| communicate verbo | /kəˈmjuːnɪkeɪt/ | comunicare, informare |
| circulation sostantivo | /ˌsɝkjʊˈleɪʃən/ | circolazione |
| predict verbo | /pɹɪˈdɪkt/ | profetizzare |
| glacier sostantivo | /ˈɡleɪ.ʃɚ/ | ghiacciaio |
| tropical aggettivo | /ˈtɹɑ.pɪ.kəl/ | tropicale |
| forecast sostantivo | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | previsione |
| complicated aggettivo | /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/ | complicato, intricato |
| refer verbo | /ɹɪˈfɜː/ | riferire |
| conclusion sostantivo | /kənˈkluːʒən/ | conclusione |
| arrive verbo | /əˈɹaɪv/ | arrivare, giungere |
| experiment sostantivo | /ɪkˈspɛɹ.ə.mənt/ | esperimento |
I phrasal verb che sentirai
| Parola | Significato |
|---|---|
| come up verbo | venire fuori, emergere |
| slow down verbo | rallentare, decelerare |
| come on to verbo | flirtare |
| figure out verbo | scoprire, rendersi conto |
| go back verbo | tornare |
| take out verbo | cavare, cacciare |
Frasi da ripetere
Frasi brevi e complete del video che puoi riutilizzare nella conversazione di tutti i giorni:
- You're talking about the ocean.
- They're from coming on to our borders.
- As you'd expect, of course.
- I'm trying to make a connection.
- How would you characterize what kind of a climate scientist you are?
La grammatica di questo video
Le strutture che chi parla usa di più, con le parole esatte del video:
| Struttura | Nel video |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + participio passato — un’azione passata che conta ancora adesso | it's been · have been · have not had |
| Forma passiva be + participio passato — conta ciò che accade, non chi lo fa | is associated · is considered · are suppressed |
| Frasi relative who / which + frase — un’informazione in più su una persona o una cosa | trend, which is · upwelling, which makes · events, which are |
Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione
Chi parla usa 72 contrazioni e forme ridotte, come don't, you're, they're. Pronunciale nella forma breve, così come le senti.
- I suoni “th”: threshold /ˈθɹɛʃ(h)oʊld/, thumb /ˈθʌm/, theorist /ˈθiːəɹəst/
- I suoni “sh” e “zh”: circulation /ˌsɝkjʊˈleɪʃən/, glacier /ˈɡleɪ.ʃɚ/, conclusion /kənˈkluːʒən/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, explanation /ˌɛkspləˈneɪʃən/
- Parole lunghe — attenzione all’accento: phenomenon /fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/, communicate /kəˈmjuːnɪkeɪt/, circulation /ˌsɝkjʊˈleɪʃən/, complicated /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/, experiment /ɪkˈspɛɹ.ə.mənt/
I suoni difficili per chi parla italiano:
- /h/ — va soffiata, non è muta: hurricane /ˈhʌɹɪkeɪn/, hemisphere /ˈhɛmɪsfɪə/, whereas /(h)wɛɹˈæz/, wherever /(h)wɛɹˈɛvɚ/, threshold /ˈθɹɛʃ(h)oʊld/
- Consonante finale — senza aggiungere una vocale dopo: communicate /kəˈmjuːnɪkeɪt/, predict /pɹɪˈdɪkt/, forecast /ˈfɔːkɑːst/, complicated /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/, arrive /əˈɹaɪv/
- /æ/ — più aperta della “e”: atmosphere /ˈætməsˌfɪɹ/, galaxy /ˈɡæl.ək.si/, collapse /kəˈlæps/, latitude /ˈlætɪtud/, naturally /ˈnæt͡ʃ.(ə.)ɹə.li/
Come esercitarsi con questo video
- Ascolta tutto il video una volta senza parlare e annota le parole che non conosci.
- Inizia a velocità 0,75×, fai shadowing frase per frase e torna alla velocità normale quando diventa facile.
- Registrati e confronta con l’originale, facendo attenzione a parole come atmosphere, phenomenon, hurricane.
Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?
Shadowing è una tecnica di apprendimento delle lingue supportata da studi scientifici, originariamente sviluppata per la formazione dei traduttori professionisti e resa popolare dal poliglotta Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Il metodo è semplice ma potente: ascolti un audio in inglese di madrelingua e lo ripeti immediatamente ad alta voce — come un'ombra che segue il parlante con un ritardo di solo 1–2 secondi. A differenza dell'ascolto passivo o degli esercizi di grammatica, lo shadowing costringe il tuo cervello e i muscoli della bocca a elaborare e riprodurre simultaneamente i modelli di discorso reale. La ricerca dimostra che migliora significativamente la precisione della pronuncia, l'intonazione, il ritmo, il discorso connesso, la comprensione dell'ascolto e la fluidità del parlato — rendendolo uno dei metodi più efficaci per la preparazione alla prova di speaking dell'IELTS e per la comunicazione reale in inglese.