ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: The Future Of Reasoning
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Hey Vsauce, Michael here.
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Where is your mind?
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Is it in your head?
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I mean that's where your brain is and your brain helps you remember and plan and make judgments and solve problems.
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But you also remember and plan with phones and notes
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and calendars and you make judgments and solve problems with all sorts of things.
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You know, when you think about it,
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the brain is really just a wet lump of fat and protein no firmer than a blob of tofu.
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But the mind is huge.
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It's an ever -expanding organ of tissue and wood and stone and steel and people because of communication.
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Communication allows us to even make other people extensions of our minds.
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We can access their memories and perceptions and knowledge by simply asking. Or not.
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I don't need to learn how to fix a car and practice medicine and vulcanize rubber or remember everything.
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Other people are doing that for me just as I do things for them.
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We are a species of individuals that is also one big interdependent lumbering growth,
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a frantic blur of flesh and concrete,
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a techno -sapien powered by imaginations and passions made real by a hallowed faculty we call reason.
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Reason, it is said, guides us to truer knowledge and better decisions.
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It's allowed us to increase life expectancy,
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suffer less, work together better and it's bound to take us further and higher until the end of time. Or is it?
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The organ we use to reason takes millions of years to evolve, but the fruits of reason grow rapidly and are ever accelerating.
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Over the next four decades, we are expected to build the equivalent of another New York City every month.
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And more concrete was installed in the last two decades, outside the United States, than the US installed during the entire 20th century.
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This growth means that quality of life around the world is rising.
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It means that electricity, manufactured goods, food, comfort and transportation are all becoming more common and accessible.
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But there are hints that reason
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and logic are struggling against the complexity of it all against our growing dependence on the things we've built
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and their unintended consequences.
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Nearly every part of life as we know it today involves
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or relies on a process that releases molecules with lopsided electrical charges.
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This property causes them to absorb and re -emit thermal radiation, pinging it around so that it escapes into space more slowly.
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Having more warmer parcels of air means stronger weather events.
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They can't be pinned to any particular extreme storm, but they make extreme storms in general more extreme and frequent.
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What's at stake isn't just bad weather, it's disaster.
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It's more lives lost, more property lost, it's more droughts, more hunger, more famine, more people needing refuge,
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and an even greater reliance on the very things that caused the problem in the first place.
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In total, we release about 51 billion tons of such gases every year and we need to release zero.
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But how do you rethink everything?
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Who gets to direct the costs and trade -offs?
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How do you achieve collaboration between nearly every local and national government when what works in one place won't work everywhere,
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when decisions affect jobs in one place and food in another,
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when not just things need to be rethought but also habits and traditions and values.
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How do you achieve consensus when a problem isn't obvious to the senses, is far away in space and time,
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requires solutions that affect people in different ways, and as a product of science always carries some uncertainty.
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The philosopher Timothy Morton calls something so massively distributed in time and space and so viscous,
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so sticky that it adheres to all that touch it, a hyper object.
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Every civilization that grows at the speed of reason must at some point face hyper objects. In fact
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The fact that we still haven't found evidence of intelligent life beyond Earth has been brought up as evidence
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that some sort of great filter might exist that few civilizations manage to get past.
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That a hyper object like our impact on the planet might be such a great filter is not a new idea.
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What it might take to solve it is the topic of Bill Gates' How to Avoid a Climate Disaster.
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And I decided to do this video in partnership with him
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and his team because the way we deal with hyper -objects reveals a lot about the mind.
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It's easy and common to think that we would all be better off if everyone was just more rational, right?
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But what if reasoning wasn't built for what we've become?
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Let's begin by looking at behavioral inertia.
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Behavioral inertia is the tendency to keep doing what you're already doing.
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Status quo bias.
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It can be a frustrating bias if you desire change, but its origin isn't a flaw.
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If an organism has managed to survive long enough to reproduce and provide and care for its offspring,
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then the state of its world was sufficient for its genes to spread.
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That's all it takes to persist.
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The types of organisms we see around us will naturally be those that managed to persist and didn't,
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after reaching that point, rock the boat too much.
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So, behavioral inertia can help slow down the accumulation of unintended consequences and the loss of ideas that work,
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but it can also slow down innovation and adaptation.
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If the environmental impacts of our society were more immediate and unignorable,
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it wouldn't be so tempting to apply this inertial break.
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But emissions are invisible and their consequences aren't immediate or local.
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They impact future people and people far away, those who are different from us, poorer than us, people we will never meet.
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This may be one of the first challenges advancing civilizations face, wielding not just the power of technology and distributed cognition,
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but also the responsibilities.
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Extending the mind is really cool, but whether or not a species can extend their empathy might be a great filter.
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Surely, reasoning will allow us to do that, right?
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Well, what is reasoning?
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Well, reasoning is a way of making inferences.
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An inference is a piece of new information extracted from the information you already have.
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We make inferences all the time.
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Every living thing does.
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For example, we don't have measuring tape tentacles that shoot from our eyes.
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And what actually enters our brain is just a 2D image but nonetheless, our brains can infer depth by attending to cues like stereopsis,
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occultation, perspective, parallax, size.
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Now, when this happens, we accept it as reality.
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We aren't aware of the visual processing that made it possible, and we don't have to be.
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If, however, we do consciously consider why a certain conclusion was reached, well then, boom, that's reasoning.
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Reasoning is the process of making inferences not automatically and instinctively, but by looking at facts and seeing what conclusions they support.
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When Eratosthenes calculated the circumference of the Earth to within a percentage or two of the value accepted today,
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he didn't do it by measuring the Earth and he didn't just perceive it as self -evident.
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No, he inferred it from what he knew about shadows and how long it took camels to move.
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Stories like that make it easy to believe that reasoning evolved because it supercharged our cognitive abilities.
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I mean, it clearly moves us towards truer conclusions, better decisions and knowledge no other species could infer.
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Attempts to describe the rules of good orderly reason became logic and mathematics,
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concepts so general and abstract that while we were still animals.
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Armed with them, we were no longer beasts.
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But that's the rub, isn't it?
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If reasoning is so great, why are we the only species with such a sophisticated grasp of it?
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And if its purpose is truth and good judgment, why don't we all agree on everything?
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It's tempting to think that disagreements happened because, well, I am being rational, but those who disagree with me are being irrational.
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Ugh!
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If only people would just use logic and reason.
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What's happened to the world?
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Well… That's a fair complaint if you're arguing over logic puzzles.
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But the world is not a logic puzzle.
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This, however, is one.
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Paul is looking at Mary.
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Mary is looking at Peter.
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Paul is married.
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Peter is unmarried.
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Is a married person looking at an unmarried person?
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Yes?
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No?
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Or not enough information to decide?
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Think about it.
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The answer is yes.
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You may have thought there's no way to know because we don't know if Mary is married.
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But look, she either is or she isn't.
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And if she is, well then she, a married person, is looking at Peter, an unmarried person.
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If she isn't, then Paul, a married person, is looking at her, an unmarried person.
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So, no matter what Mary's deal is, the answer will be yes.
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When people get this puzzle wrong and the correct answer is explained to them, they almost always immediately see why it's right and change their mind.
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Life is not always like that.
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Let's take a look at a logical syllogism.
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All elephants are awesome.
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Michael is an elephant.
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Therefore, Michael is awesome.
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The conclusion is logically valid.
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It follows from the assumptions.
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But are the assumptions true?
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No. I am not an elephant.
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Also, this premise is subjective.
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I mean, what does it mean to be awesome?
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Can we measure it with an osmometer?
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So you can see why, when analyzing something like our impact on the planet, logic can only be a partial tool.
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If some people have more to lose than others, who gets to decide which assumptions are fair?
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Still though, it would seem that reasoning should be able to help here.
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If each of us would just attend only to the facts, surely we'd all recognize the same reasonable approach.
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Problem is, that's not how reasoning works.
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Since the scientific study of human reasoning began about a hundred years ago, it has been found again and again that not only are we bad at reasoning,
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lazy and biased, but we actually seem almost programmed to be bad, like the flaws are intentional.
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In an episode of Mind Field, I once used a magician to pull off a little experiment.
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He asked people to look at two faces and choose which of the two they would prefer to work with,
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placing their preferences in one pile and those they rejected into another.
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Then, the pile of people they picked were shown again, and each person was asked to provide a reason for why they chose that person.
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But with a little sleight of hand, the magician managed to sneak in some of the faces they had just rejected.
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Amazingly, the majority of people didn't even notice the trick.
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Not only that, they were able to effortlessly explain the reasons behind their choice a choice they never actually made.
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Remembering faces you've only seen briefly isn't the easiest thing to do, but other studies have shown that even if the task involves answering questions about one's political beliefs,
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things we would seemingly have a firmer grasp on, nearly half of participants will fail to notice
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that the answers they gave have been reversed when they're later asked to explain them.
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Point is, we seem practically built to give reasons for whatever we think we must
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and not the reasons we actually used to reach a conclusion.
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What if we don't even use reasons to reach conclusions?
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Well, let's talk about intuitions.
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Our brains have evolved over millions of years to react to
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the world around us in brilliant ways with little to no input from us.
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For example, when you notice that someone is upset, you don't consciously think, hmm,
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okay, so, uh, well, their eyebrows are kind of in that position and their speech seems curt, their posture is, these are all reasons to conclude that they are upset.
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No. Instead, the belief that they may be upset was just apparent.
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You intuited it.
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You know it without exactly knowing how you came to know it.
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The mood -recognizing parts of your brain operate in a way that is opaque to your awareness.
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But if someone asks you, why do you think they're upset?
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You can nonetheless produce all sorts of reasons.
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Some may have actually been the ones your brain attended to, but they're all just guesses.
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Instead of using reasoning, You to come to conclusions, we use conclusions to come to reasons.
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Now to be fair, we can go the other way.
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We love puzzles and when we don't have a strong intuition either way, we can sit down and mull over various reasons to think one thing or another.
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Our love of puzzles suggests that reasoning has a survival value.
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Organisms that found it pleasurable would be more likely to use it.
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But when we reason alone, even when we have no motivation to reach any particular conclusion,
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we still exhibit deep biases that seem less like mistakes and more like features.
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For example, it's been shown that between two otherwise similar products, people will prefer to buy the one with more functions, even if they don't want those functions,
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never plan to use them and think they're all pointless and overly complicated.
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Why?
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Well, it might be that we find such decisions easier to justify to others.
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We won't wind up being potentially embarrassed when someone asks why we didn't get the product with more functions.
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Well after decades of findings like this, Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber began to hypothesize
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that reasoning didn't evolve to help us make better decisions but instead to help us be social.
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Humans inhabit a cognitive niche on this planet.
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We aren't strong or sharp or hidden or venomous.
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Instead, our advantage comes from cognition, reasoning, and cooperation.
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We can plan hunts, build traps, and engage in coordinated strategies that can be tested and modified on the fly, not by millennia of evolution.
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Reason allows us to do those things.
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It's hard to convince people that your intuitions are true, but if you can give reasons for them, it's a whole heck of a easier to convince people that you're right.
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Being able to argue over what the best thing to do is, is vital when it comes to coordinating action.
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Reasons also allow us to justify ourselves in the eyes of others, to explain who we are and express the kinds of reasons we like,
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what others can expect from us, and what we will likely expect from them.
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This social theory of reasoning helps explain why two people can earnestly and rationally arrive at two different views.
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They each have their own unique brain and values and dispositions and experiences and those are what drove their thinking.
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The reasons they give may
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or may not be the real reasons they came to their conclusions but it's the best anyone can do.
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The social theory also explains why people tend to give such weak reasons for their beliefs at first
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or when their intended audience doesn't need much convincing.
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It would be a waste of time
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and cognitive resources to construct grand slam reasons for everything I said and did and thought when it wasn't necessary.
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Instead I can offload some of that work to other people.
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For example, if I say I want to have lunch at ABC Burgers, well my friend might respond, ah no thanks I had burgers yesterday.
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And I might reply back, oh well that's no problem.
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They also have hot dogs and great salads.
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But if my friend said, no thanks, I'm trying to spend less money eating out this month,
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I could reply, oh well ABC Burgers is really cheap and I've got a coupon.
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Now what's going on here is that I'm providing reasons only as my friend presses for them.
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If they press harder and harder my reasons will become better
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and better until either I win them over or we come to some different more harmonious decision.
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So when people appear to be lazy reasoners or to have bad reasons or none at all,
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it's usually just the case that they're using reason as it evolved to function.
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Socially.
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It starts off weak, improving if others push it and always tailoring its work to the intended audience.
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The social theory of reasoning can even explain the existence of biases that otherwise make little sense.
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For For example, it would seem that in coming to conclusions about the world,
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it would behoove an organism to pay particular attention to information that went against what it believed.
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I mean, that way, they would be able to adjust their beliefs, making them truer, more general, and more complete.
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To a certain extent, that is what happens, but not always.
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When someone does their own research, they often come to the very conclusion they wanted in the first place.
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This is called confirmation bias, our tendency to look for,
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prefer, and interpret information so that it confirms what we already think.
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It frustrates our ability to accept new, inconvenient data and is a problem for the intellectualist view of reason.
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If reason is for finding truth and making better decisions, why would it have this major weakness?
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Well, because, the social theory says, reasoning is a group activity.
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Let's say that I think option A is true and the best and you think option B is true and the best.
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Well, if we both researched both options and sifted through reasons in support of both options,
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we would both have twice the work to do than we would
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if instead I simply came up with reasons for why I was right
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and you attended the reasons for why you were right.
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The confirmation bias at least halves the cognitive work that must be done.
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Now sometimes a lone reasoner will have a bad idea or a decent idea with some bad parts.
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The reasons they have to justify for and argue for it, will be sufficient for them and those who intuitively agree, but they may be weak.
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However, subjected to deliberation, put forth into the machine of collective thought,
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it can be evaluated and judged not by one mind or a group of minds thinking alike, but by something very special.
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The crowd.
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Humans have long known of the wisdom of the crowds, the phenomenon by
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which a collection of many Many people can process information into a conclusion better than any one person could do alone.
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It's why we don't trust big decisions to a single person, no matter how educated or powerful they are.
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Instead, we ask a group of people to deliberate, to reason together.
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In this way, the biases and errors of each is smoothed out and the decision wiser.
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In a famous example, it's been repeatedly shown that
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if you ask a bunch of people to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar,
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you'll find that the average of all their answers is closer to the real number than any one individual was alone.
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What happens is that although some people may guess a number that is like way too big,
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that mistake is balanced out by the fact that others will inevitably guess a number that is way too small.
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Altogether, their disagreement evens out into spectacular accuracy.
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We have now arrived at the problem.
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Reasoning evolved to be used socially, where many different perspectives had to all deliberate towards a common conclusion.
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Such contexts are becoming less and less common and it is becoming easier and easier to simply be a lone reasoner,
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justifying only a particular viewpoint without doing the harder work of deliberating and acting.
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The internet gives voices to more perspectives than ever before in our history,
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but it also makes it easy to disengage from accountability and to find places where everyone believes what you do.
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Furthermore, because of technology, we confront more issues more rapidly than ever before that we are expected to have opinions about.
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And the growing complexity and specialization of the modern world makes it difficult for each of us to have well -informed,
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prepared reasons for the accelerating accretion of intuitions we must form.
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In response, we look for people who can defend our intuitions for us.
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The reasons they give don't have to be good, just good enough that we can feel like justification exists.
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In the past, unconvincing reasons had to be painted on sandwich boards,
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but now the democratization of communication means that even unpopular,
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unconvincing, nonsensical ideas can be presented with the same trust -inducing typefaces and professional look as common ones.
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People can challenge the weak reasons of others, show them to be contradictory and produce better reasons for their side, but to what end?
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It's all preparation for a debate that never comes.
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We each play a very small role in deciding how society is run.
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Even if a good -faith discussion between a representative slice of America came to a resolution, if nothing can come of it,
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why not just throw shade and sick burns
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or revel in the pleasure of reasoning by treating everything like a big giant puzzle?
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It's easy to think that it doesn't matter.
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Because after all, those in charge, the brilliant scientists and powerful billionaires, will surely come to the rescue.
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Some giant techno -salvation is surely on the horizon.
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Perhaps it is.
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But everything we know about reason suggests that those implementing it should be held accountable by as many different perspectives. as possible.
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Leaders could lead deliberations and be elected for their ability to moderate social reasoning, but that's boring.
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Why lead when you could follow?
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Look at what some people believe and generate reasons for why they're right and they'll love it.
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Of course, the hard work, the real work, the work that truly elevates us on this planet is not in telling people that they're right,
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but But in trying to convince others, and in doing so, use reason as it evolved to be used.
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The future of reason may in fact be the past of reason.
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In practice, what does all this look like?
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Well, some researchers have gone
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so far as to recommend National Deliberation Days where citizens celebrate by literally joining small groups
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and talking through their opinions and comparing reasons.
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Tests of such strategies have shown that a return to the small, targeted discussions our reasoning abilities evolve to excel in leaves all
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participants with a greater understanding of not just what they believe and why, but about decisions that could actually be made and actions that could be taken.
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Others have gone even further, recommending that the future of reason at its best is the construction of a latocracy.
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A form of government where decisions are made not by elected leaders, but by people literally chosen at random.
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We decide the fate of a person this way.
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Why not the fate of the people?
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What if decisions were made not by politicians alone, but at least occasionally by groups of actual citizens representing differences in thought,
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not just geography, who were brought together
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and paid for their time to learn from experts and then deliberate on an assigned issue until a conclusion was reached or, at the least, a recommendation.
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Instead of being motivated by re -election, money, attention, and power, individuals chosen at random would have only their conscience to guide them.
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Special interests and corporations wouldn't be able to cozy up to those likely to be elected
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because if any one of us could someday serve, they'd have to cozy up to and protect all of us.
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Instead of the learning and deliberation being done by people you will never meet with offices and buildings you can't access,
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gradually over time more and more of your very own neighbors would have had the honor.
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People chosen at random would obviously lack the same celebrity status and mandate that elected leaders cultivate and achieve.
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And iconic figures we relate to aren't bad, but our understanding of reasoning is making it more and more clear
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that we evolved not to leave the thinking up to a few great minds, but to the authority of the great mind.
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The lumbering organ of thought that is everyone and everything.
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This is, in fact, how democracy first worked.
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Lotteries were used to fill many political positions in ancient Athens, Aristotle explained that the appointment of magistrates by lot is thought to be democratic,
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and the election of them is oligarchic.
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An oligarchy is government by only a small number of people.
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Look, regardless of how reason is brought back to its social roots,
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if we can build more and better arenas for deliberation and use them to apply reason properly to hyperobjects,
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like the impact of our emissions on the planet, we'll have taught one heck of a lesson to people a hundred, a thousand years in the future.
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I like to think that although widening participation will be difficult, it might provide us with a kind of existential security.
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The impact of emissions on our planet is not going to be the last hyperobject we face.
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If we can do a good job with it, maybe far in the future, when our civilization has advanced to the point at which, I don't know, people can be quantumly recreated or something,
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they'll look back at our time and say, hey, let's bring them all back to life.
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We could use the cooperative abilities they had then.
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Ultimately, the old saying that history is the great teacher isn't a bad guide.
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We will all someday be teachers ourselves.
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Because someday, we will all be history.
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We will someday be the ancients.
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And we can choose what that will mean.
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And as always, thanks for watching.
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Thank you.
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คำศัพท์สำคัญในวิดีโอนี้
คำที่ควรเรียนรู้ 15 คำจากวิดีโอ พร้อมคำอ่านและความหมาย:
| คำศัพท์ | คำอ่าน | ความหมาย |
|---|---|---|
| puzzle คำนาม | /ˈpʌzəl/ | ปริศนา |
| bias คำนาม | /ˈbaɪ.əs/ | อคติ, ความลำเอียง |
| organism คำนาม | /ˈɔɹ.ɡəˌnɪz.əm/ | สิ่งมีชีวิต |
| argue คำกริยา | /ˈɑɹ.ɡju/ | เถียง, ถก |
| solve คำกริยา | /sɒlv/ | แก้, แก้ไข |
| filter คำนาม | /ˈfɪltɚ/ | กรอง, เครื่องกรอง |
| organ คำนาม | /ˈɔːɡən/ | อวัยวะ, องค์ |
| burger คำนาม | /ˈbɝ.ɡɚ/ | เบอร์เกอร์ |
| consequence คำนาม | /ˈkɑn.sɪ.kwəns/ | ผล, ผลลัพธ์ |
| disaster คำนาม | /dɪˈzɑːs.təː/ | ภัยพิบัติ |
| fate คำนาม | /feɪt/ | ดวง, โชคชะตา |
| lazy คำคุณศัพท์ | /ˈleɪ̯zi(ː)/ | เกียจคร้าน, ขี้เกียจ |
| elephant คำนาม | /ˈɛlɪfənt/ | ช้าง, คชสาร |
| civilization คำนาม | /ˌsɪv.ɪ.laɪˈzeɪ.ʃən/ | อารยธรรม |
| tendency คำนาม | /ˈtɛn.dən.si/ | แนวโน้ม |
กริยาวลีที่คุณจะได้ยิน
| คำศัพท์ | ความหมาย |
|---|---|
| bring up คำกริยา | เลี้ยงดู, ฟูมฟัก |
| sit down คำกริยา | นั่ง |
ไวยากรณ์ในวิดีโอนี้
โครงสร้างที่ผู้พูดใช้บ่อยที่สุด พร้อมคำพูดจริงจากวิดีโอ:
| โครงสร้าง | ในวิดีโอ |
|---|---|
| ประโยคเงื่อนไข if + อนุประโยค, will/would + กริยา — เงื่อนไขและผลลัพธ์ | If only people would just · If each of us would just |
| Present perfect have/has + กริยาช่อง 3 — เหตุการณ์ในอดีตที่ยังเกี่ยวข้องกับปัจจุบัน | we've built · haven't found · we've become |
| Passive voice be + กริยาช่อง 3 — เน้นสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้น ไม่ใช่ผู้กระทำ | is said · are expected · was installed |
| Relative clauses who / which + อนุประโยค — ข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมเกี่ยวกับคนหรือสิ่งของ | those who are · those who disagree · those who intuitively |
การออกเสียงที่ควรระวัง
ผู้พูดใช้รูปย่อและรูปลดเสียง 63 ครั้ง เช่น don't, isn't, they're ให้พูดแบบสั้นตามที่ได้ยิน
- เสียง “th”: nonetheless /ˌnʌnðəˈlɛs/, furthermore /ˈfɜː(ɹ).ðə(ɹ)ˌmɔː(ɹ)/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/
- เสียง “sh” และ “zh”: conclusion /kənˈkluːʒən/, assumption /əˈsʌm(p).ʃ(ə)n/, emission /ɪˈmɪʃ.ən/, sufficient /səˈfɪʃənt/, confirmation /ˌkɑn.fəɹˈmeɪ.ʃən/
- คำยาว — ลงเสียงหนักให้ถูกพยางค์: organism /ˈɔɹ.ɡəˌnɪz.əm/, behavioral /bɪˈheɪvjəɹəl/, deliberate /dɪˈlɪb.(ə.)ɹət/, confirmation /ˌkɑn.fəɹˈmeɪ.ʃən/, complexity /kəmˈplɛk.sɪ.ti/
วิธีฝึกกับวิดีโอนี้
- ฟังวิดีโอให้จบหนึ่งรอบโดยยังไม่ต้องพูด แล้วจดคำที่ยังไม่รู้จัก
- พูดตามทีละประโยคด้วยความเร็วปกติ ทำซ้ำแต่ละประโยคจนจังหวะของคุณตรงกับผู้พูด
- อัดเสียงตัวเองแล้วเทียบกับต้นฉบับ โดยสังเกตคำอย่าง puzzle, bias, organism เป็นพิเศษ
เทคนิค Shadowing คืออะไร?
Shadowing เป็นเทคนิคการเรียนรู้ภาษาที่ได้รับการรับรองทางวิทยาศาสตร์ พัฒนาขึ้นสำหรับการฝึกนักแปลมืออาชีพ วิธีการนี้เรียบง่ายแต่ทรงพลัง: คุณฟังเสียงภาษาอังกฤษจากเจ้าของภาษาและพูดตามทันที — เหมือนเงาที่ตามผู้พูดด้วยช่วงเวลาห่าง 1-2 วินาที การวิจัยแสดงว่าเทคนิคนี้ปรับปรุงความแม่นยำในการออกเสียง ทำนองเสียง จังหวะ การเชื่อมเสียง การฟังเข้าใจ และความคล่องแคล่วในการพูดได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ