تدريب Shadowing: Why Hasn’t Iran’s Economy Collapsed? - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو
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A couple of months ago, once it had become clear that airstrikes alone wouldn't force an Iranian capitulation,
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the Trump administration pivoted from a strategy of military coercion to one of economic coercion.
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The bombing stopped and the US instead imposed a naval blockade of everything going in or out of Iran's ports, accompanied by some fresh sanctions,
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in the hopes of imposing enough damage on the Iranian economy to force further concessions.
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At first glance, it looks like this plan, or at least the first bit of it, is working remarkably well.
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Iran's currency, the rial, has cratered against the dollar.
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Inflation has duly spiked to a record high of about 90%.
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And in July, the IMF said that it expects the Iranian economy to contract by 5 .4 % this year,
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which will be the sharpest contraction since the Iran -Iraq war in the 1980s.
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This is probably an underestimate as well.
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Data released by Iran's statistical centre last month showed
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that GDP shrank by 10 .1 % year on year between March 21st and June 20th, the first quarter of the Persian calendar.
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Nonetheless, despite all of this, the regime has shown little interest in making further concessions.
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So in this video, we're going to explain why Trump's new strategy of economic coercion isn't really working and why Iran's economy, bad as it might be, hasn't yet collapsed.
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For the latest issue of our magazine Too Long, we interviewed The Economist's new Washington bureau chief Shashank Joshi,
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all about what he said has left Donald Trump bruised, weakened and humiliated.
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That's just one of the articles in our longest issue ever.
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Subscribe to get your copy by clicking the link in the description.
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So as we see it, there are mainly two reasons the Iranian economy hasn't collapsed at
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least not to the extent required to force a change in Iranian strategy.
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The first is that the Iranian state has, over time,
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become very good at essentially transferring money and resources away from what we might call the normal economy towards the state itself.
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This makes life extra miserable for ordinary Iranians, but allows the state to continue pursuing its domestic and foreign policy goals.
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The exchange rate is a good case in point.
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For context, Trump's defenders, including US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, like to point to the cratering real dollar exchange rate as proof of the efficacy of their sanctions campaign,
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with the implication that the Iranian economy is inescapably headed for collapse.
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It is true that the real now trades at about 2 .6 million to the dollar, down from about a million last year.
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And in a normal economy, such a sharp depreciation would usually signal some sort of crisis.
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But Iran is not a normal economy.
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Unlike most of the rest of the world, the rial's exchange rate, or more specifically the one that Trump
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and co like to cite because Iran actually has a number of exchange rates, is not determined by the free market because the rial isn't freely traded.
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Rather, it's determined by Iran's central bank.
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The central bank obviously has to take into account what we might describe as the economic fundamentals, which effectively set an upper limit on the strength of the rial.
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The central bank couldn't, for instance, set the rial at one to one with the dollar, but the central bank can quite easily devalue the rial, which is exactly what they do and what is happening now
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when they want to essentially transfer wealth away from the so -called normal economy towards the state.
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This is because devaluations benefit exporters at the expense of importers.
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In Iran, because the state has control over basically every big export -oriented business,
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including most obviously the oil industry and most households and small businesses are net importers,
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this means that devaluations materially benefit the state at the expense of the rest of the economy.
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Interestingly this was actually the proximate cause of the massive protests we saw in December
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and January which began with bizarre merchants protesting the central bank's decision to devalue the real
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which they believed unfairly benefited well -connected exporters at the expense of their own import -dependent businesses.
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Anyway one of the main channels through which this transfer of occurs is the inflation rate.
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Devaluations stoke inflation, which in turn erodes living standards, meaning Iranian households consume and import less.
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Less consumption means more resources for the state to mobilize, and less imports reduces pressure on the real.
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This obviously makes things additionally tough for ordinary Iranians, but unless they rise up and topple the regime,
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which looks increasingly unlikely, allows the state to insulate themselves from the worst effects of sanctions.
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This also speaks to the more general myth about sanctions.
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Their advocates often justify their use by claiming that modern sanctions are targeted against political elites or specific decision makers.
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In reality, however, this is rarely true.
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Elites can usually find ways to shift the economic burden onto someone else.
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And there's some evidence to suggest that sanctions have actually hit poorer Iranians hardest.
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So that's the first reason that the economic pressure campaign isn't working.
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The Iranian state has ways to divert resources away from the normal economy, which is additionally why the headline macro numbers aren't that informative.
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On to the second.
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sanctions become less effective with time.
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Iran has been under some sort of US sanctions for the best part of 30 years, and every time the US President of the day promises
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that this latest round of sanctions will finally be the one to break the Ayatollahs.
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But while each new round of sanctions usually incurs some temporary economic pain, the Iranian economy always eventually finds its feet,
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usually once Iran and its allies have engineered some new workarounds.
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2018, when Trump withdrew the nuclear deal and imposed what he described as maximum pressure sanctions, is a good case in point.
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Then as now, Trump claimed that this latest round of sanctions would bring the regime to its knees.
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Then as now, oil exports, Iran's main source of foreign currency earnings, fell towards zero.
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Then as now, there was subsequently a lot of speculation about impending economic crisis.
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But an acute crisis never materialised.
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Iran was able to find its way around the sanctions, and by 2022, oil exports were back up and the economy was going again.
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The private sector has also developed its own coping strategies, including most notably stockpiles.
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According to filings made by companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, the average industrial firm has inventories that could last three months.
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In sensitive sectors, such as electrical machinery, which has been heavily targeted by US sanctions in the past, firms maintain inventories that could last nearly seven months.
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To be clear, this isn't to say that sanctions aren't painful.
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They clearly are, as evidenced by both Iran's dismal economic record
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and the emphasis that Iranian officials have put on sanctions relief in recent negotiations.
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Rather, the point we're trying to make is that their efficacy wanes over time.
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So if they haven't yet incurred an economic collapse or change in Iranian strategy, chances are they won't in the future.
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All in all, while the US has been able to impose real and very severe harm upon the Iranian economy, it's unlikely to engender a change in Iranian policy,
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not least because the brunt of it has been borne by a public with very little means to affect policy, and that is, by most accounts, broadly supportive of the regime's war effort.
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Big issues like these don't just happen overnight, they're so often built up over time,
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sometimes even decades of small changes and consequences building up to something massive.
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And the same can be said about a lot of things in our day -to -day lives, even for something as small as the razor you use.
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Countless razor companies have just added new technology and more blades hoping
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that they create a better shave
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but they've actually done the opposite they've created friction sure you might think
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that the extra blades will compensate for inconsistent cutting
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but each additional blade on your razor increases surface contact with your skin
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which increases friction more friction means more opportunity for irritation instead
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of solving the root issue the industry has sold you solutions to a problem they invented.
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What you really need is a razor that focuses on precision and that's where Henson comes in.
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تنزيل التطبيق
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المفردات وملاحظات التحدث لهذا الدرس
هذا الدرس في المحادثة بمستوى B2 مبني على الفيديو “Why Hasn’t Iran’s Economy Collapsed?”. أكثر الكلمات تكرارًا في الفيديو: Iranian, sanctions, economy, economic, blade. يحتوي هذا الفيديو على 95 جملة و1517 كلمة للتدرب على الترديد. مدة الكلام 8:27. يتكلم المتحدث بسرعة طبيعية، نحو 179 كلمة في الدقيقة، قريبة من المحادثة اليومية. 79% فقط من الكلمات ضمن أكثر 3,000 كلمة شيوعًا في الإنجليزية، فالمفردات صعبة نسبيًا.
أهم المفردات في هذا الفيديو
أصعب 15 كلمة في الفيديو، مع النطق والمعنى:
| الكلمة | النطق | المعنى |
|---|---|---|
| sanction اسم | /ˈsæŋkʃən/ | عِقَاب, إِسْتِحْسَان |
| blade اسم | /bleɪd/ | شَفْرَة, نَصْل |
| rial اسم | /ɹiːˈɑːl/ | رِيَال |
| razor اسم | /ˈɹeɪzɚ/ | مُوسَى حِلَاقَة, مُوس حِلَاقَة |
| collapse فعل | /kəˈlæps/ | اِنْهَار |
| coercion اسم | /koʊˈɝʒən/ | قَهْر, قَسْر |
| friction اسم | /ˈfɹɪkʃən/ | اِحْتِكَاك |
| shave فعل | /ˈʃeɪ̯v/ | حَلَقَ |
| import اسم | /ˈɪm.pɔɹt/ | وَارِدَات |
| inflation اسم | /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/ | تَضَخُّم |
| exporter اسم | مُصَدِّر | |
| importer اسم | /ɪmˈpɔː(ɹ)tə(ɹ)/ | مُسْتَوْرِد, مُسْتَوْرِدَة |
| incur فعل | /ɪnˈkɝ/ | كَبَّدَ |
| crater اسم | /ˈkɹeɪ.tɚ/ | فَوَّهَةُ الْبُرْكَان, فَوَّهَة |
| inventory اسم | /ˈɪn.vən.tɹi/ | جَرْد |
القواعد في هذا الفيديو
أكثر التراكيب التي يستخدمها المتحدث، مع العبارات نفسها من الفيديو:
| التركيب | في الفيديو |
|---|---|
| المضارع التام have/has + اسم المفعول — حدث ماضٍ ما زال له أثر الآن | has cratered · has shown · has left |
| المبني للمجهول be + اسم المفعول — التركيز على ما يحدث لا على من يفعله | are targeted · has been borne · can be said |
| جمل الوصل who / which + جملة — معلومة إضافية عن شخص أو شيء | rial, which is · economy, which is · machinery, which has |
نطق يحتاج إلى انتباه
يستخدم المتحدث 22 من الصيغ المختصرة، مثل isn't, aren't, don't. انطقها بصيغتها القصيرة كما تسمعها.
- أصوات “th”: nonetheless /ˌnʌnðəˈlɛs/, withdraw /wɪðˈdɹɔ/, myth /mɪθ/
- أصوات “sh” و“zh”: sanction /ˈsæŋkʃən/, coercion /koʊˈɝʒən/, friction /ˈfɹɪkʃən/, shave /ˈʃeɪ̯v/, inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/
- الكلمات الطويلة — انتبه لموضع النبر: efficacy /ˈɛf.ɪ.kə.si/, depreciation /dɪˌpɹiːʃɪˈeɪʃən/, humiliate /hjuːˈmɪliˌeɪt/, inconsistency /ˌɪnkənˈsɪstənsi/, irritation /ˌɪɹ.ɪˈteɪ.ʃən/
أصوات يجدها متحدثو العربية صعبة:
- /p/ — ليس /b/: انطقه مع نفخة هواء: collapse /kəˈlæps/, import /ˈɪm.pɔɹt/, importer /ɪmˈpɔː(ɹ)tə(ɹ)/, compensate /ˈkɑm.pənˌseɪt/, depreciation /dɪˌpɹiːʃɪˈeɪʃən/
- /v/ — ليس /f/: مع اهتزاز الأوتار الصوتية: shave /ˈʃeɪ̯v/, devalue /diːˈvæljuː/, inventory /ˈɪn.vən.tɹi/, divert /daɪˈvɝt/, invent /ɪnˈvɛnt/
- تتابع الصوامت — لا تضف حركة بينها: sanction /ˈsæŋkʃən/, blade /bleɪd/, collapse /kəˈlæps/, friction /ˈfɹɪkʃən/, import /ˈɪm.pɔɹt/
كيف تتدرب بهذا الفيديو
- استمع إلى الفيديو كاملًا مرة واحدة دون أن تتكلم، ودوّن الكلمات التي لا تعرفها.
- ابدأ بسرعة 0.75×، وردّد جملة جملة، ثم عُد إلى السرعة العادية عندما يصبح الأمر سهلًا.
- سجّل صوتك وقارنه بالأصل، مع الانتباه إلى كلمات مثل sanction, blade, rial.
ما هي تقنية التظليل الصوتي؟
التظليل الصوتي (Shadowing) تقنية تعلم لغة مدعومة علمياً، طُورت أصلاً لتدريب المترجمين الفوريين المحترفين. الطريقة بسيطة لكنها قوية: تستمع لصوت إنجليزي أصلي وتكرره فوراً بصوت عالٍ — كظل يتبع المتحدث بتأخير 1-2 ثانية. تُظهر الأبحاث تحسناً كبيراً في دقة النطق والتنغيم والإيقاع وربط الأصوات والاستماع والطلاقة.