Luyện nói tiếng Anh bằng Shadowing qua video: Why Hasn’t Iran’s Economy Collapsed?
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A couple of months ago, once it had become clear that airstrikes alone wouldn't force an Iranian capitulation,
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the Trump administration pivoted from a strategy of military coercion to one of economic coercion.
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The bombing stopped and the US instead imposed a naval blockade of everything going in or out of Iran's ports, accompanied by some fresh sanctions,
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in the hopes of imposing enough damage on the Iranian economy to force further concessions.
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At first glance, it looks like this plan, or at least the first bit of it, is working remarkably well.
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Iran's currency, the rial, has cratered against the dollar.
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Inflation has duly spiked to a record high of about 90%.
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And in July, the IMF said that it expects the Iranian economy to contract by 5 .4 % this year,
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which will be the sharpest contraction since the Iran -Iraq war in the 1980s.
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This is probably an underestimate as well.
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Data released by Iran's statistical centre last month showed
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that GDP shrank by 10 .1 % year on year between March 21st and June 20th, the first quarter of the Persian calendar.
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Nonetheless, despite all of this, the regime has shown little interest in making further concessions.
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So in this video, we're going to explain why Trump's new strategy of economic coercion isn't really working and why Iran's economy, bad as it might be, hasn't yet collapsed.
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For the latest issue of our magazine Too Long, we interviewed The Economist's new Washington bureau chief Shashank Joshi,
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all about what he said has left Donald Trump bruised, weakened and humiliated.
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That's just one of the articles in our longest issue ever.
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Subscribe to get your copy by clicking the link in the description.
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So as we see it, there are mainly two reasons the Iranian economy hasn't collapsed at
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least not to the extent required to force a change in Iranian strategy.
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The first is that the Iranian state has, over time,
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become very good at essentially transferring money and resources away from what we might call the normal economy towards the state itself.
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This makes life extra miserable for ordinary Iranians, but allows the state to continue pursuing its domestic and foreign policy goals.
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The exchange rate is a good case in point.
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For context, Trump's defenders, including US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, like to point to the cratering real dollar exchange rate as proof of the efficacy of their sanctions campaign,
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with the implication that the Iranian economy is inescapably headed for collapse.
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It is true that the real now trades at about 2 .6 million to the dollar, down from about a million last year.
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And in a normal economy, such a sharp depreciation would usually signal some sort of crisis.
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But Iran is not a normal economy.
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Unlike most of the rest of the world, the rial's exchange rate, or more specifically the one that Trump
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and co like to cite because Iran actually has a number of exchange rates, is not determined by the free market because the rial isn't freely traded.
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Rather, it's determined by Iran's central bank.
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The central bank obviously has to take into account what we might describe as the economic fundamentals, which effectively set an upper limit on the strength of the rial.
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The central bank couldn't, for instance, set the rial at one to one with the dollar, but the central bank can quite easily devalue the rial, which is exactly what they do and what is happening now
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when they want to essentially transfer wealth away from the so -called normal economy towards the state.
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This is because devaluations benefit exporters at the expense of importers.
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In Iran, because the state has control over basically every big export -oriented business,
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including most obviously the oil industry and most households and small businesses are net importers,
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this means that devaluations materially benefit the state at the expense of the rest of the economy.
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Interestingly this was actually the proximate cause of the massive protests we saw in December
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and January which began with bizarre merchants protesting the central bank's decision to devalue the real
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which they believed unfairly benefited well -connected exporters at the expense of their own import -dependent businesses.
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Anyway one of the main channels through which this transfer of occurs is the inflation rate.
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Devaluations stoke inflation, which in turn erodes living standards, meaning Iranian households consume and import less.
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Less consumption means more resources for the state to mobilize, and less imports reduces pressure on the real.
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This obviously makes things additionally tough for ordinary Iranians, but unless they rise up and topple the regime,
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which looks increasingly unlikely, allows the state to insulate themselves from the worst effects of sanctions.
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This also speaks to the more general myth about sanctions.
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Their advocates often justify their use by claiming that modern sanctions are targeted against political elites or specific decision makers.
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In reality, however, this is rarely true.
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Elites can usually find ways to shift the economic burden onto someone else.
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And there's some evidence to suggest that sanctions have actually hit poorer Iranians hardest.
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So that's the first reason that the economic pressure campaign isn't working.
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The Iranian state has ways to divert resources away from the normal economy, which is additionally why the headline macro numbers aren't that informative.
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On to the second.
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sanctions become less effective with time.
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Iran has been under some sort of US sanctions for the best part of 30 years, and every time the US President of the day promises
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that this latest round of sanctions will finally be the one to break the Ayatollahs.
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But while each new round of sanctions usually incurs some temporary economic pain, the Iranian economy always eventually finds its feet,
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usually once Iran and its allies have engineered some new workarounds.
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2018, when Trump withdrew the nuclear deal and imposed what he described as maximum pressure sanctions, is a good case in point.
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Then as now, Trump claimed that this latest round of sanctions would bring the regime to its knees.
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Then as now, oil exports, Iran's main source of foreign currency earnings, fell towards zero.
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Then as now, there was subsequently a lot of speculation about impending economic crisis.
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But an acute crisis never materialised.
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Iran was able to find its way around the sanctions, and by 2022, oil exports were back up and the economy was going again.
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The private sector has also developed its own coping strategies, including most notably stockpiles.
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According to filings made by companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, the average industrial firm has inventories that could last three months.
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In sensitive sectors, such as electrical machinery, which has been heavily targeted by US sanctions in the past, firms maintain inventories that could last nearly seven months.
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To be clear, this isn't to say that sanctions aren't painful.
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They clearly are, as evidenced by both Iran's dismal economic record
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and the emphasis that Iranian officials have put on sanctions relief in recent negotiations.
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Rather, the point we're trying to make is that their efficacy wanes over time.
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So if they haven't yet incurred an economic collapse or change in Iranian strategy, chances are they won't in the future.
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All in all, while the US has been able to impose real and very severe harm upon the Iranian economy, it's unlikely to engender a change in Iranian policy,
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not least because the brunt of it has been borne by a public with very little means to affect policy, and that is, by most accounts, broadly supportive of the regime's war effort.
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Big issues like these don't just happen overnight, they're so often built up over time,
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sometimes even decades of small changes and consequences building up to something massive.
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And the same can be said about a lot of things in our day -to -day lives, even for something as small as the razor you use.
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Countless razor companies have just added new technology and more blades hoping
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that they create a better shave
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but they've actually done the opposite they've created friction sure you might think
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that the extra blades will compensate for inconsistent cutting
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but each additional blade on your razor increases surface contact with your skin
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which increases friction more friction means more opportunity for irritation instead
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Từ vựng và ghi chú luyện nói cho bài học này
Bài luyện nói trình độ B2 này dựa trên video “Why Hasn’t Iran’s Economy Collapsed?”. Những từ được nhắc lại nhiều nhất trong bài: Iranian, sanctions, economy, economic, blade. Video này có 95 câu và 1517 từ để luyện shadowing. Phần lời nói dài 8:27. Người nói nói với tốc độ tự nhiên, khoảng 179 từ mỗi phút, gần với hội thoại hằng ngày. Chỉ 79% số từ nằm trong 3.000 từ tiếng Anh thông dụng nhất, nên từ vựng khá khó.
Từ vựng quan trọng trong video
15 từ khó nhất trong video, kèm phiên âm và nghĩa:
| Từ | Phiên âm | Nghĩa |
|---|---|---|
| sanction danh từ | /ˈsæŋkʃən/ | sự phê chuẩn, sự chấp nhận |
| blade danh từ | /bleɪd/ | lưỡi |
| razor danh từ | /ˈɹeɪzɚ/ | dao cạo |
| collapse động từ | /kəˈlæps/ | đổ, sập |
| coercion danh từ | /koʊˈɝʒən/ | sự ép buộc |
| friction danh từ | /ˈfɹɪkʃən/ | ma sát |
| shave động từ | /ˈʃeɪ̯v/ | cạo, cạo mặt |
| import danh từ | /ˈɪm.pɔɹt/ | nhập khẩu |
| inflation danh từ | /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/ | (sự) tăng giá, lạm phát |
| exporter danh từ | người xuất khẩu, cơ quan xuất khẩu | |
| importer danh từ | /ɪmˈpɔː(ɹ)tə(ɹ)/ | người nhập khẩu, cơ quan nhập khẩu |
| crater danh từ | /ˈkɹeɪ.tɚ/ | hố va chạm |
| capitulation danh từ | sự đầu hàng | |
| humiliate động từ | /hjuːˈmɪliˌeɪt/ | làm nhục, sỉ nhục |
| macroeconomics danh từ | /ˌmæk.ɹoʊˌiː.kəˈnɒ.mɪks/ | kinh tế học vĩ mô |
Cụm động từ bạn sẽ nghe
| Từ | Nghĩa |
|---|---|
| back up động từ | lùi |
Ngữ pháp trong video
Những cấu trúc người nói dùng nhiều nhất, kèm đúng cụm từ trong video:
| Cấu trúc | Trong video |
|---|---|
| Thì hiện tại hoàn thành have/has + quá khứ phân từ — việc đã xảy ra nhưng còn liên quan đến hiện tại | has cratered · has shown · has left |
| Câu bị động be + quá khứ phân từ — nhấn vào việc xảy ra, không phải người làm | are targeted · has been borne · can be said |
| Mệnh đề quan hệ who / which + mệnh đề — thêm thông tin về người hoặc vật | rial, which is · economy, which is · machinery, which has |
Phát âm cần chú ý
Người nói dùng 22 dạng rút gọn, ví dụ isn't, aren't, don't. Hãy nói theo dạng ngắn đúng như bạn nghe.
- Âm “th”: nonetheless /ˌnʌnðəˈlɛs/, withdraw /wɪðˈdɹɔ/, myth /mɪθ/
- Âm “sh” và “zh”: sanction /ˈsæŋkʃən/, coercion /koʊˈɝʒən/, friction /ˈfɹɪkʃən/, shave /ˈʃeɪ̯v/, inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/
- Từ dài — đặt trọng âm cho đúng: efficacy /ˈɛf.ɪ.kə.si/, depreciation /dɪˌpɹiːʃɪˈeɪʃən/, humiliate /hjuːˈmɪliˌeɪt/, inconsistency /ˌɪnkənˈsɪstənsi/, irritation /ˌɪɹ.ɪˈteɪ.ʃən/
Những âm người Việt thường gặp khó:
- Cụm phụ âm cuối — đọc đủ từng âm, đừng nuốt âm cuối: collapse /kəˈlæps/, import /ˈɪm.pɔɹt/, macroeconomics /ˌmæk.ɹoʊˌiː.kəˈnɒ.mɪks/, orient /ˈɔɹ.iˌɛnt/, workaround /ˈwɜːk.əɹaʊnd/
- Âm /tʃ/, /dʒ/ và /ʒ/ — tiếng Việt không có, đừng đọc thành “ch” hay “gi”: coercion /koʊˈɝʒən/, engender /ɛnˈd͡ʒɛn.dɚ/, checkout /ˈt͡ʃɛkˌaʊt/, precision /pɹɪˈsɪʒ.ən/, merchant /ˈmɝt͡ʃənt/
- Âm /æ/ — mở miệng rộng hơn âm “e”: sanction /ˈsæŋkʃən/, collapse /kəˈlæps/, devalue /diːˈvæljuː/, contraction /kənˈtɹækʃ(ə)n/, macroeconomics /ˌmæk.ɹoʊˌiː.kəˈnɒ.mɪks/
Cách luyện với video này
- Nghe hết video một lần, chưa cần nói, và ghi lại những từ bạn chưa biết.
- Bắt đầu ở tốc độ 0,75×, nói đuổi từng câu, rồi quay lại tốc độ bình thường khi đã quen.
- Ghi âm giọng mình rồi so với bản gốc, chú ý các từ như sanction, blade, razor.
Phương Pháp Shadowing Là Gì?
Shadowing là kỹ thuật học ngôn ngữ có cơ sở khoa học, ban đầu được phát triển cho chương trình đào tạo phiên dịch viên chuyên nghiệp và được phổ biến rộng rãi bởi nhà đa ngôn ngữ học Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Nguyên lý cốt lõi đơn giản nhưng cực kỳ hiệu quả: bạn nghe tiếng Anh của người bản xứ và lặp lại to ngay lập tức — như một "cái bóng" (shadow) đuổi theo người nói với độ trễ chỉ 1–2 giây. Khác với luyện ngữ pháp hay học từ vựng bị động, Shadowing buộc não bộ và cơ miệng phải đồng thời xử lý và tái tạo ngôn ngữ thực tế. Các nghiên cứu khoa học xác nhận phương pháp này cải thiện đáng kể phát âm, ngữ điệu, nhịp điệu, nối âm, kỹ năng nghe và độ lưu loát khi nói — đặc biệt hiệu quả cho người luyện IELTS Speaking và muốn giao tiếp tiếng Anh tự nhiên như người bản ngữ.