쉐도잉 연습: Why Hasn’t Iran’s Economy Collapsed? - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기
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A couple of months ago, once it had become clear that airstrikes alone wouldn't force an Iranian capitulation,
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the Trump administration pivoted from a strategy of military coercion to one of economic coercion.
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The bombing stopped and the US instead imposed a naval blockade of everything going in or out of Iran's ports, accompanied by some fresh sanctions,
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in the hopes of imposing enough damage on the Iranian economy to force further concessions.
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At first glance, it looks like this plan, or at least the first bit of it, is working remarkably well.
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Iran's currency, the rial, has cratered against the dollar.
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Inflation has duly spiked to a record high of about 90%.
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And in July, the IMF said that it expects the Iranian economy to contract by 5 .4 % this year,
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which will be the sharpest contraction since the Iran -Iraq war in the 1980s.
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This is probably an underestimate as well.
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Data released by Iran's statistical centre last month showed
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that GDP shrank by 10 .1 % year on year between March 21st and June 20th, the first quarter of the Persian calendar.
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Nonetheless, despite all of this, the regime has shown little interest in making further concessions.
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So in this video, we're going to explain why Trump's new strategy of economic coercion isn't really working and why Iran's economy, bad as it might be, hasn't yet collapsed.
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For the latest issue of our magazine Too Long, we interviewed The Economist's new Washington bureau chief Shashank Joshi,
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all about what he said has left Donald Trump bruised, weakened and humiliated.
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That's just one of the articles in our longest issue ever.
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Subscribe to get your copy by clicking the link in the description.
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So as we see it, there are mainly two reasons the Iranian economy hasn't collapsed at
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least not to the extent required to force a change in Iranian strategy.
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The first is that the Iranian state has, over time,
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become very good at essentially transferring money and resources away from what we might call the normal economy towards the state itself.
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This makes life extra miserable for ordinary Iranians, but allows the state to continue pursuing its domestic and foreign policy goals.
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The exchange rate is a good case in point.
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For context, Trump's defenders, including US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, like to point to the cratering real dollar exchange rate as proof of the efficacy of their sanctions campaign,
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with the implication that the Iranian economy is inescapably headed for collapse.
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It is true that the real now trades at about 2 .6 million to the dollar, down from about a million last year.
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And in a normal economy, such a sharp depreciation would usually signal some sort of crisis.
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But Iran is not a normal economy.
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Unlike most of the rest of the world, the rial's exchange rate, or more specifically the one that Trump
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and co like to cite because Iran actually has a number of exchange rates, is not determined by the free market because the rial isn't freely traded.
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Rather, it's determined by Iran's central bank.
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The central bank obviously has to take into account what we might describe as the economic fundamentals, which effectively set an upper limit on the strength of the rial.
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The central bank couldn't, for instance, set the rial at one to one with the dollar, but the central bank can quite easily devalue the rial, which is exactly what they do and what is happening now
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when they want to essentially transfer wealth away from the so -called normal economy towards the state.
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This is because devaluations benefit exporters at the expense of importers.
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In Iran, because the state has control over basically every big export -oriented business,
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including most obviously the oil industry and most households and small businesses are net importers,
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this means that devaluations materially benefit the state at the expense of the rest of the economy.
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Interestingly this was actually the proximate cause of the massive protests we saw in December
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and January which began with bizarre merchants protesting the central bank's decision to devalue the real
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which they believed unfairly benefited well -connected exporters at the expense of their own import -dependent businesses.
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Anyway one of the main channels through which this transfer of occurs is the inflation rate.
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Devaluations stoke inflation, which in turn erodes living standards, meaning Iranian households consume and import less.
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Less consumption means more resources for the state to mobilize, and less imports reduces pressure on the real.
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This obviously makes things additionally tough for ordinary Iranians, but unless they rise up and topple the regime,
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which looks increasingly unlikely, allows the state to insulate themselves from the worst effects of sanctions.
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This also speaks to the more general myth about sanctions.
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Their advocates often justify their use by claiming that modern sanctions are targeted against political elites or specific decision makers.
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In reality, however, this is rarely true.
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Elites can usually find ways to shift the economic burden onto someone else.
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And there's some evidence to suggest that sanctions have actually hit poorer Iranians hardest.
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So that's the first reason that the economic pressure campaign isn't working.
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The Iranian state has ways to divert resources away from the normal economy, which is additionally why the headline macro numbers aren't that informative.
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On to the second.
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sanctions become less effective with time.
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Iran has been under some sort of US sanctions for the best part of 30 years, and every time the US President of the day promises
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that this latest round of sanctions will finally be the one to break the Ayatollahs.
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But while each new round of sanctions usually incurs some temporary economic pain, the Iranian economy always eventually finds its feet,
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usually once Iran and its allies have engineered some new workarounds.
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2018, when Trump withdrew the nuclear deal and imposed what he described as maximum pressure sanctions, is a good case in point.
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Then as now, Trump claimed that this latest round of sanctions would bring the regime to its knees.
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Then as now, oil exports, Iran's main source of foreign currency earnings, fell towards zero.
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Then as now, there was subsequently a lot of speculation about impending economic crisis.
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But an acute crisis never materialised.
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Iran was able to find its way around the sanctions, and by 2022, oil exports were back up and the economy was going again.
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The private sector has also developed its own coping strategies, including most notably stockpiles.
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According to filings made by companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, the average industrial firm has inventories that could last three months.
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In sensitive sectors, such as electrical machinery, which has been heavily targeted by US sanctions in the past, firms maintain inventories that could last nearly seven months.
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To be clear, this isn't to say that sanctions aren't painful.
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They clearly are, as evidenced by both Iran's dismal economic record
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and the emphasis that Iranian officials have put on sanctions relief in recent negotiations.
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Rather, the point we're trying to make is that their efficacy wanes over time.
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So if they haven't yet incurred an economic collapse or change in Iranian strategy, chances are they won't in the future.
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All in all, while the US has been able to impose real and very severe harm upon the Iranian economy, it's unlikely to engender a change in Iranian policy,
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not least because the brunt of it has been borne by a public with very little means to affect policy, and that is, by most accounts, broadly supportive of the regime's war effort.
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Big issues like these don't just happen overnight, they're so often built up over time,
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sometimes even decades of small changes and consequences building up to something massive.
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And the same can be said about a lot of things in our day -to -day lives, even for something as small as the razor you use.
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Countless razor companies have just added new technology and more blades hoping
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that they create a better shave
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but they've actually done the opposite they've created friction sure you might think
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that the extra blades will compensate for inconsistent cutting
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but each additional blade on your razor increases surface contact with your skin
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which increases friction more friction means more opportunity for irritation instead
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이 레슨의 어휘와 말하기 포인트
이 B2 수준 말하기 레슨은 영상 “Why Hasn’t Iran’s Economy Collapsed?”을(를) 바탕으로 합니다. 가장 자주 반복되는 단어는 다음과 같습니다: Iranian, sanctions, economy, economic, blade. 이 영상에는 섀도잉할 문장 95개와 단어 1517개가 있습니다. 말하는 구간의 길이는 8:27입니다. 화자는 분당 약 179단어로, 일상 대화에 가까운 자연스러운 속도로 말합니다. 영어에서 가장 많이 쓰이는 3,000단어에 속하는 단어가 79%뿐이라 어휘가 어려운 편입니다.
이 영상의 핵심 어휘
영상에서 가장 어려운 단어 15개를 발음, 뜻과 함께 정리했습니다.
| 단어 | 발음 | 뜻 |
|---|---|---|
| sanction 명사 | /ˈsæŋkʃən/ | 승인, 인가 |
| blade 명사 | /bleɪd/ | 날 |
| rial 명사 | /ɹiːˈɑːl/ | 리알 |
| razor 명사 | /ˈɹeɪzɚ/ | 면도칼 |
| coercion 명사 | /koʊˈɝʒən/ | 강제, 강압 |
| friction 명사 | /ˈfɹɪkʃən/ | 마찰 |
| shave 동사 | /ˈʃeɪ̯v/ | 꺾다, 면도하다 |
| import 명사 | /ˈɪm.pɔɹt/ | 수입품 |
| inflation 명사 | /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/ | 인플레이션, 인플레 |
| exporter 명사 | 수출업자 | |
| importer 명사 | /ɪmˈpɔː(ɹ)tə(ɹ)/ | 수입업자, 수입사 |
| crater 명사 | /ˈkɹeɪ.tɚ/ | 충돌구, 크레이터 |
| inventory 명사 | /ˈɪn.vən.tɹi/ | 재고 |
| bruise 명사 | /bɹuz/ | 멍 |
| capitulation 명사 | 항복, 투항 |
이 영상의 문법
화자가 가장 많이 쓰는 문형을 영상 속 실제 표현과 함께 정리했습니다.
| 문형 | 영상 속 표현 |
|---|---|
| 현재완료 have/has + 과거분사 — 과거의 일이 지금도 관련이 있을 때 | has cratered · has shown · has left |
| 수동태 be + 과거분사 — 누가 하는지보다 무슨 일이 일어나는지에 초점 | are targeted · has been borne · can be said |
| 관계절 who / which + 절 — 사람이나 사물에 대한 추가 정보 | rial, which is · economy, which is · machinery, which has |
주의할 발음
화자는 isn't, aren't, don't 같은 축약형과 약화된 형태를 22번 사용합니다. 들리는 대로 짧게 발음하세요.
- “th” 소리: nonetheless /ˌnʌnðəˈlɛs/, withdraw /wɪðˈdɹɔ/, myth /mɪθ/
- “sh”와 “zh” 소리: sanction /ˈsæŋkʃən/, coercion /koʊˈɝʒən/, friction /ˈfɹɪkʃən/, shave /ˈʃeɪ̯v/, inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/
- 긴 단어 — 강세 위치에 주의: efficacy /ˈɛf.ɪ.kə.si/, depreciation /dɪˌpɹiːʃɪˈeɪʃən/, humiliate /hjuːˈmɪliˌeɪt/, inconsistency /ˌɪnkənˈsɪstənsi/, irritation /ˌɪɹ.ɪˈteɪ.ʃən/
한국어 화자가 어려워하는 소리:
- /f/ — ㅍ(/p/)으로 바꾸지 말고 윗니를 아랫입술에 대기: friction /ˈfɹɪkʃən/, inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, efficacy /ˈɛf.ɪ.kə.si/, informative /ɪnˈfɔːmətɪv/, filing /ˈfaɪ.lɪŋ/
- /v/ — ㅂ(/b/)과 구별하기: shave /ˈʃeɪ̯v/, devalue /diːˈvæljuː/, inventory /ˈɪn.vən.tɹi/, divert /daɪˈvɝt/, invent /ɪnˈvɛnt/
- /z/ — ㅈ이 아니라 성대를 울리는 /s/: razor /ˈɹeɪzɚ/, bruise /bɹuz/, dismal /ˈdɪzməl/, mobilize /ˈməʊbɪlʌɪz/, bizarre /bɪˈzɑː(ɹ)/
이 영상으로 연습하는 방법
- 먼저 말하지 않고 영상을 끝까지 듣고 모르는 단어를 적어 둡니다.
- 0.75배속으로 한 문장씩 섀도잉을 시작하고, 익숙해지면 보통 속도로 돌아갑니다.
- 자신의 목소리를 녹음해 원본과 비교하고, sanction, blade, rial 같은 단어에 특히 주의합니다.
쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법
쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.