ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: If You Only Read One Book This Year, Make It This
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1
This book changed the way I make decisions.
2
It didn't come from a CEO or a business school professor or a billionaire investor.
3
It came from Annie Duke, a world-class poker player who spent 20 years at the table and won millions.
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Now, poker is interesting because that's where you can make a right decision and still lose money.
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You can make a terrible decision and still be rewarded.
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So you never know for sure whether you're smart or lucky or just emotional.
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That's why thinking in vets matters.
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Because your career, your money, your relationships, your biggest life choices work the same way.
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But this video is not just a book summary.
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I'm going to turn Duke's ideas into a practical system for making better decisions when you don't have all the information.
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How to avoid emotional pitfalls, how to separate skills from luck.
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And I'll share a framework called AVA that can help you when you can't see around the corner.
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This might save you years of heartache.
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So let's dive in.
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The most counterintuitive insight we miss is this.
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Good results are bad teachers.
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The most dangerous teacher in your life is accidental success.
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Let's say someone gets really drunk and it's late at night and he decides to drive home instead of calling an Uber.
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He might speed through three red lights at 2 a.m and still gets home safely.
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Now that's a good outcome, it's a great outcome, but it was still a terrible decision.
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When something works out in your favor in spite of you, your brain assumes that you made a smart bet.
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But the biggest mistake here is that we adjust the quality of the decision by the result it produces.
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But they may not be connected.
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That drunk driver will convince himself that nothing Something happens when you drive under the influence of alcohol, and that could prove fatal to him and others.
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And this is one of the central ideas of the book.
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In poker, you can play the right bet and still lose the hand.
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And you can make a terrible bet and still win.
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That gap is where people get confused about their own judgment.
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This happens in business, in our careers, on Wall Street, in relationships, everywhere.
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There are traders who I know who believe they have a magic touch
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and their trades never go the wrong way until of course they do and they lose their shirt.
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And same for founders and CEOs.
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I was the CEO of an AI company and we became the 20th fastest growing tech company in the US.
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And was that because I was a visionary CEO?
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I wish.
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We were the right company solving the right problem at the right time.
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And it worked out.
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Five years before and five years after, the same company wouldn't have worked.
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The tide is way more important than who's rowing the boat.
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Our decisions might be clean, but outcomes are rarely clean.
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They're usually a mix of skills and luck and timing and emotions,
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so that should give us humility and it should help us watch out for our self-serving bias.
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When we win, we think it's because of our skills.
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When we lose, we blame our luck.
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But when others win, we say, ah, they got lucky.
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And when they lose, we say, oh, well, they didn't have enough skills.
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So the results may come back amazing or awful.
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It does not make you a genius or a victim.
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The only useful move is to pull the result apart and ask what part was skill,
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what part was luck, And what can I do better next time?
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These questions sound pretty simple, but they're so hard to put in practice.
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So let's first figure out how our skills and luck get tangled up when we make decisions.
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That's where we'll find our first tool for decision-making.
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That's where we go next.
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A few years ago, I had a choice between two paths.
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One was a CEO role at a very, very cool tech company.
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It was a startup.
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We'll call it Company A.
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There were about 150 people growing fast.
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I had been at the CEO chair before, so it felt right.
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The board and I had many conversations.
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The chairman already had sent me the offer with compensation and equity, all of that stuff.
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And then just before the day I was about to sign, another option showed up.
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It was a C-level role at a company B.
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Now that company was a public company, much bigger, with a very strong market position and already worth about 10 billion dollars and counting in market cap.
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And I loved the CEO.
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I loved the mission.
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So I went through my decision framework carefully and thoughtfully and I ended up choosing company B.
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In the next few years, company A surprisingly faced tremendous growth challenges.
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It eventually had to shut down, but company B's stock went through the roof, up by more than 500%.
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In retrospect, the decision I made looks like a brilliant move, right?
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But here's the twist.
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A few years later, I had already moved on from the company and I had retired,
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but the industry dynamics changed so suddenly that the company's stock plummeted and it wiped out almost 90% of its value.
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I still had stocks in there.
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I should have sold the remaining positions, but I didn't.
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And it cost me a fortune.
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And this is the heart of what Annie Duke teaches in thinking in bets.
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You can play a hand with perfect skills and get lucky and still lose.
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We have to get ruthless about separating what is skill and what is luck.
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So let's unpack my decision process way she would.
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The first decision to choose company B was a skill.
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I suppressed my ego, I didn't get seduced by the CEO role, and made the right choice.
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But that rise in stock price that followed, that was pure luck.
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And finally, not selling the stock at the right time was just my dumb mistake.
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It was my greed and my emotional attachment to the company, and literally my delusion that it will come back.
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It wasn't some bad luck, it was just a dumb mistake.
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So this has happened to me many times and it will happen to me again.
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And if you are ambitious enough to play the high-stakes games, it will happen to you too.
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So here's the tool.
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Don't ask was I skilled or lucky because you're most likely both
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and also because your self-serving bias has already rigged that answer.
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Picture someone else making the same exact move and then put them on a dial from pure luck to pure skill.
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90-10, 50-50, that's the most honest number you can come up with.
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Your job is not to look back
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and beat yourself over the luck you couldn't control or the skills you had or you didn't have.
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Your job is to audit the process, learn the lesson, and get ready for the next bet
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and more importantly know when to fold
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that was my mistake i didn't get out on time
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and by the way if you like reading more about tools
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and frameworks like these you can subscribe to my newsletter as
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well i write it every tuesday one insight one tool one practice the link is below
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and it's totally free the key takeaway is this sometimes the same decision can be smart
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or lucky or foolish at different points in your life story.
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That's life.
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So now some of you may say, well then you have to wait until you have all the information so then you'll know which one is which.
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Well that's a fallacy and we'll see why next.
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We keep waiting to feel certain before making big decisions and that's why we wait forever.
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So in thinking in bets, Annie Duke makes a simple point.
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Every decision is a bet against the future.
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You're choosing between multiple futures you cannot fully see.
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A job, a house, a partner, a company.
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You're not supposed to know everything.
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If you knew everything, it wouldn't be called a bet.
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You never have perfect information.
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Also, having more information doesn't always help.
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A Columbia researcher named Sheena Iyengar found something very interesting in a grocery store.
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She set out a table with six jams to taste.
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Next weekend, she came back to the same station, set up the same table, but put out 24 jams for people to taste.
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The bigger display and more options attracted more people to the table.
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But when it actually came time to buy, the people who saw six jams bought more than the people who saw 24.
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More information and more options didn't give them more certainty to buy the product, it just made the decision harder.
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Sometimes more information can feel safer, but most of the time it's just causing analysis paralysis.
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It's just another excuse not to move forward.
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And I think this is the key difference between chess and poker.
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Chess is hard, but the entire board is clearly visible.
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You can see every piece.
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You can see the current positions.
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But when it comes to poker, the truth is hidden.
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You don't know the other person's cards.
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You don't know what card will come next.
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And you don't know when someone is bluffing.
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And that is way more closer to our lives.
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Because in life, you never get to see the full board.
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So here's one practical move I use.
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I make a two column decision table.
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In the first column, I write all the known facts.
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What is actually visible?
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What do I know?
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And in the second column, all the hidden cards.
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What is unknown?
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What am I assuming?
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What I'm hoping to be true?
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Once you separate what is known from what is unknown, your decision gets cleaner.
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Now, even if you don't have all the information, you still have to make the bet and ask what beliefs you're going to be betting on.
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That's where we go next.
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There is a famous study called They Saw a Game.
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There are two universities, Dartmouth and Princeton.
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They're both in Northeast America.
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Researchers had students from both universities watch the same football game.
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Their own universities were playing against each other.
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Same place, same penalties, yet Dartmouth fans swore Princeton played dirty.
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And Princeton fans saw the exact opposite.
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They saw the game through the team they already believed in.
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That's why some beliefs can start distorting what you see.
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That is also one of the core ideas in thinking in bets, that every decision is a bet built on what you believe.
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This is why fake news works, really.
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It feeds into what we already want to believe.
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For example, for years, people have clung to this headline that red wine is good for your heart.
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Why?
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Because people like drinking red wine when they come home and they want to relax in the evening.
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Research has since debunked that myth clearly many, many times over.
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But the belief has stuck around because it tells us what we want to hear.
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What's the action?
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Use these two moves.
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Number one, replace your binary thinking with probabilities.
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Instead of saying right or wrong or good or bad decision, ask, how confident am I?
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Am I 70% sure or 80% sure?
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And number two, ask the key question to yourself.
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You wanna bet?
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That's a great question.
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It's from the book.
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When you feel certain about some beliefs, imagine putting $100 or $1,000 dollars on that belief.
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It will force you to examine and define exactly what you believe in and based on what evidence.
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So it's better to start asking why you believe it.
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Okay, so we've thought about our luck, our skills, our beliefs, and now we've come to a point where we're ready to make a decision
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and we're going to need a framework for it.
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That's where we go next.
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In In the Odyssey, the protagonist knew about the siren's song.
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He knew it would hijack his mind.
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Sailors who had heard it before had lost control and crashed into the rocks.
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So before he heard those songs, while his head was still clear,
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he asked his crew to tie him to a ship's mast and ignore anything he said once the song began.
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Today, psychologists call it the Ulysses Contract, a rule your present self makes to protect you from your future self.
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The book gives us the same type of principle, but we have to go beyond the book now and build our own practical framework to put that advice into action.
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This is where I use a decision-making framework I call AVA, Expected Value Analysis.
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Emotions can have a seat at the table, sure, but AVA gets the first vote.
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It's a four step process.
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First, before making any decision, map out the scenarios.
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Put four or five branches on paper.
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Great success, moderate success, minor failure, a catastrophic failure.
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Once these possibilities are on paper, the fog starts to clear.
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Second, assign payoffs to each of these options.
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Put a dollar figure on each branch.
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How much will your gain be if it's a success?
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How much will you lose if it's a failure?
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And by the way, you don't have to value your payoffs in terms of hard cash.
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Include whatever matters to you.
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your time, your reputation, your health, impact on your family, anything.
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And third, assign the odds.
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Give each branch a probability score.
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What is the likelihood of that outcome happening?
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Do it based on the information you have today.
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And the fourth and final step is to calculate the expected value, which is to multiply the payoff by the probability.
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The evaluation process is more important than the actual numbers because you can stress test all the scenarios, look at the worst case scenario,
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figure out once you put the numbers down, imagine it's 12 months out from now and everything has failed completely.
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You can write down your version of how it failed and what happened.
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When you script that detailed disaster story before it has happened,
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your brain builds the exit ramps before the crash ever occurs.
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That is the point of Ava.
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It doesn't make your decision certain.
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It helps you understand why it's uncertain.
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And it helps you manage the most dangerous side effect of your decision.
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And that's where we go next.
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In poker, there is a condition called tilt.
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It's the exact moment your last hand completely infects your next move.
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You play a hand correctly, lose anyway, and your anger and your fear and your frustration
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and your wounded pride all of them take over or the exact opposite might happen too.
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You win so big and you start betting like you're invincible and both extremes are illusions.
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This is one of the book's key messages and here's where the biggest trap is.
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When you start tilting it is obvious to everyone else but it's invisible to you because tilt
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serves you a very toxic self punishment.
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When you fail, you start thinking, why do I always screw things up?
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And you're locked into that world.
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You can't see outside of it.
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And that is one of the biggest enemies of making great bets.
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Regret.
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That's what keeps the last hand alive inside the next one.
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But regret after a loss is part and parcel of how we all feel as human beings, right?
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There is nothing you can do to change what was gone, what is lost.
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But regret should heal, not harm.
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If you lose money, it doesn't mean you get out of the market just when it's recovering.
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I've done that.
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If you get fired, it doesn't mean you stop applying to the next amazing job.
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I've done that too.
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If someone breaks your heart, it doesn't mean you stop believing you could be loved again.
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This happens to all of us, but this is where we have to go beyond the book.
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The real lesson is not about card games.
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It's about realizing that outcomes can lie to you,
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your beliefs can distort you and your past regrets can paralyze you.
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All of it is inevitable.
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It's going to happen.
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But a regret is only wasted if it doesn't improve your next bet.
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One of my favorite songwriters, John Prine, has a song with this phrase I love, the blind spot of regret.
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because the past follows you everywhere you go.
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We hang it like a relic on our rearview mirror and we keep glancing at it while we're trying to drive forward.
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But the rearview mirror can't steer the car.
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You can hang your regrets where you can see them and then drive forward.
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Take the new turn, make the new bed.
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The road ahead only cares about how lucky you can get.
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I'll see you next week.
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Thank you and I love you.
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คำศัพท์และข้อสังเกตด้านการพูดสำหรับบทเรียนนี้
บทเรียนฝึกพูดระดับ B2 นี้ใช้วิดีโอ “If You Only Read One Book This Year, Make It This” เป็นสื่อ คำที่ถูกพูดซ้ำบ่อยที่สุด: decision, bet, skill, luck วิดีโอนี้มี 252 ประโยค และ 2847 คำ สำหรับฝึกพูดตาม ช่วงที่มีเสียงพูดยาว 18:21 ผู้พูดพูดด้วยความเร็วเป็นธรรมชาติ ประมาณ 155 คำต่อนาที ใกล้เคียงกับบทสนทนาในชีวิตประจำวัน 85% ของคำอยู่ใน 3,000 คำที่ใช้บ่อยที่สุดในภาษาอังกฤษ ส่วนที่เหลือควรดูไว้ก่อนเริ่มฝึก
คำศัพท์สำคัญในวิดีโอนี้
คำที่ยากที่สุด 15 คำในวิดีโอ พร้อมคำอ่านและความหมาย:
| คำศัพท์ | คำอ่าน | ความหมาย |
|---|---|---|
| probability คำนาม | /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/ | ความน่าจะเป็น |
| jam คำนาม | /ˈd͡ʒæm/ | แยม |
| scenario คำนาม | /sɪˈnɛəɹioʊ/ | ฉากทัศน์ |
| distort คำกริยา | /dɪsˈtɔːt/ | บิดเบือน |
| researcher คำนาม | /ˈɹiˌsɝ.t͡ʃɚ/ | นักวิจัย |
| chess คำนาม | /t͡ʃɛs/ | หมากรุก |
| bias คำนาม | /ˈbaɪ.əs/ | อคติ, ความลำเอียง |
| emotion คำนาม | /ɪˈməʊ.ʃən/ | อารมณ์ |
| fallacy คำนาม | /ˈfæl.ə.si/ | ตรรกวิบัติ |
| heartache คำนาม | /ˈhɑːteɪk/ | ไข้ใจ, โทมนัส |
| infect คำกริยา | /ɪnˈfɛkt/ | ติดเชื้อ |
| invincible คำคุณศัพท์ | /ɪnˈvɪn.sə.bəl/ | อยู่ยงคงกระพัน, ไร้พ่าย |
| multiply คำกริยา | /ˈmʌltɪplaɪ/ | คูณ |
| paralysis คำนาม | /pəˈɹæləsəs/ | อัมพาต |
| plummet คำกริยา | /ˈplʌmət/ | ดิ่ง |
กริยาวลีที่คุณจะได้ยิน
| คำศัพท์ | ความหมาย |
|---|---|
| come back คำกริยา | กลับมา |
| show up คำกริยา | โผล่ |
ประโยคที่ควรฝึกพูดซ้ำ
ประโยคสั้น ๆ ที่สมบูรณ์จากวิดีโอ ซึ่งนำไปใช้ในบทสนทนาประจำวันได้:
- That's where we go next.
- You're choosing between multiple futures you cannot fully see.
- What I'm hoping to be true?
- How much will your gain be if it's a success?
- How much will you lose if it's a failure?
ไวยากรณ์ในวิดีโอนี้
โครงสร้างที่ผู้พูดใช้บ่อยที่สุด พร้อมคำพูดจริงจากวิดีโอ:
| โครงสร้าง | ในวิดีโอ |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + กริยาช่อง 3 — เหตุการณ์ในอดีตที่ยังเกี่ยวข้องกับปัจจุบัน | has happened · has already rigged · have clung |
| Passive voice be + กริยาช่อง 3 — เน้นสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้น ไม่ใช่ผู้กระทำ | be rewarded · may not be connected · be called |
| Relative clauses who / which + อนุประโยค — ข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมเกี่ยวกับคนหรือสิ่งของ | people who saw · value, which is |
การออกเสียงที่ควรระวัง
ผู้พูดใช้รูปย่อและรูปลดเสียง 53 ครั้ง เช่น didn't, don't, you're ให้พูดแบบสั้นตามที่ได้ยิน
- เสียง “th”: thoughtfully /ˈθɔtfəli/, ruthless /ˈɹuːθləs/, myth /mɪθ/
- เสียง “sh” และ “zh”: emotion /ɪˈməʊ.ʃən/, delusion /dɪˈl(j)uːʒ(ə)n/, visionary /ˈvɪʒəˌnɛɹi/, foolish /ˈfuː.lɪʃ/, illusion /ɪˈl(j)uːʒ(ə)n/
- คำยาว — ลงเสียงหนักให้ถูกพยางค์: probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/, counterintuitive /ˌkaʊntəɹɪnˈtuɪtɪv/, invincible /ɪnˈvɪn.sə.bəl/, paralysis /pəˈɹæləsəs/, visionary /ˈvɪʒəˌnɛɹi/
เสียงที่คนไทยมักออกเสียงยาก:
- เสียงท้ายคำ — ออกเสียงให้ครบ ไม่เปลี่ยนเป็นตัวสะกดแบบไทย: chess /t͡ʃɛs/, bias /ˈbaɪ.əs/, counterintuitive /ˌkaʊntəɹɪnˈtuɪtɪv/, extremes /ɪkˈstɹimz/, invincible /ɪnˈvɪn.sə.bəl/
- /v/ — ไม่ใช่ /w/ ให้ฟันบนแตะริมฝีปากล่าง: rearview /ˈɹɪɹvjuː/, counterintuitive /ˌkaʊntəɹɪnˈtuɪtɪv/, invincible /ɪnˈvɪn.sə.bəl/, visionary /ˈvɪʒəˌnɛɹi/, vet /vɛt/
- /z/ — เสียงก้อง ไม่ใช่ /s/: extremes /ɪkˈstɹimz/, paralyze /ˈpæɹəˌlaɪz/, newsletter /ˈn(j)uzˌlɛtɚ/, surprisingly /səˈpɹaɪzɪŋli/, invisible /ɪnˈvɪzəb(ə)l/
วิธีฝึกกับวิดีโอนี้
- ฟังวิดีโอให้จบหนึ่งรอบโดยยังไม่ต้องพูด แล้วจดคำที่ยังไม่รู้จัก
- เริ่มที่ความเร็ว 0.75× พูดตามทีละประโยค แล้วกลับไปใช้ความเร็วปกติเมื่อเริ่มคล่อง
- อัดเสียงตัวเองแล้วเทียบกับต้นฉบับ โดยสังเกตคำอย่าง probability, jam, scenario เป็นพิเศษ
เทคนิค Shadowing คืออะไร?
Shadowing เป็นเทคนิคการเรียนรู้ภาษาที่ได้รับการรับรองทางวิทยาศาสตร์ พัฒนาขึ้นสำหรับการฝึกนักแปลมืออาชีพ วิธีการนี้เรียบง่ายแต่ทรงพลัง: คุณฟังเสียงภาษาอังกฤษจากเจ้าของภาษาและพูดตามทันที — เหมือนเงาที่ตามผู้พูดด้วยช่วงเวลาห่าง 1-2 วินาที การวิจัยแสดงว่าเทคนิคนี้ปรับปรุงความแม่นยำในการออกเสียง ทำนองเสียง จังหวะ การเชื่อมเสียง การฟังเข้าใจ และความคล่องแคล่วในการพูดได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ