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This book changed the way I make decisions.

It didn't come from a CEO or a business school professor or a billionaire investor.

It came from Annie Duke, a world-class poker player who spent 20 years at the table and won millions.

Now, poker is interesting because that's where you can make a right decision and still lose money.

You can make a terrible decision and still be rewarded.

So you never know for sure whether you're smart or lucky or just emotional.

That's why thinking in vets matters.

Because your career, your money, your relationships, your biggest life choices work the same way.

But this video is not just a book summary.

I'm going to turn Duke's ideas into a practical system for making better decisions when you don't have all the information.

How to avoid emotional pitfalls, how to separate skills from luck.

And I'll share a framework called AVA that can help you when you can't see around the corner.

This might save you years of heartache.

So let's dive in.

The most counterintuitive insight we miss is this.

Good results are bad teachers.

The most dangerous teacher in your life is accidental success.

Let's say someone gets really drunk and it's late at night and he decides to drive home instead of calling an Uber.

He might speed through three red lights at 2 a.m and still gets home safely.

Now that's a good outcome, it's a great outcome, but it was still a terrible decision.

When something works out in your favor in spite of you, your brain assumes that you made a smart bet.

But the biggest mistake here is that we adjust the quality of the decision by the result it produces.

But they may not be connected.

That drunk driver will convince himself that nothing Something happens when you drive under the influence of alcohol, and that could prove fatal to him and others.

And this is one of the central ideas of the book.

In poker, you can play the right bet and still lose the hand.

And you can make a terrible bet and still win.

That gap is where people get confused about their own judgment.

This happens in business, in our careers, on Wall Street, in relationships, everywhere.

There are traders who I know who believe they have a magic touch

and their trades never go the wrong way until of course they do and they lose their shirt.

And same for founders and CEOs.

I was the CEO of an AI company and we became the 20th fastest growing tech company in the US.

And was that because I was a visionary CEO?

I wish.

We were the right company solving the right problem at the right time.

And it worked out.

Five years before and five years after, the same company wouldn't have worked.

The tide is way more important than who's rowing the boat.

Our decisions might be clean, but outcomes are rarely clean.

They're usually a mix of skills and luck and timing and emotions,

so that should give us humility and it should help us watch out for our self-serving bias.

When we win, we think it's because of our skills.

When we lose, we blame our luck.

But when others win, we say, ah, they got lucky.

And when they lose, we say, oh, well, they didn't have enough skills.

So the results may come back amazing or awful.

It does not make you a genius or a victim.

The only useful move is to pull the result apart and ask what part was skill,

what part was luck, And what can I do better next time?

These questions sound pretty simple, but they're so hard to put in practice.

So let's first figure out how our skills and luck get tangled up when we make decisions.

That's where we'll find our first tool for decision-making.

That's where we go next.

A few years ago, I had a choice between two paths.

One was a CEO role at a very, very cool tech company.

It was a startup.

We'll call it Company A.

There were about 150 people growing fast.

I had been at the CEO chair before, so it felt right.

The board and I had many conversations.

The chairman already had sent me the offer with compensation and equity, all of that stuff.

And then just before the day I was about to sign, another option showed up.

It was a C-level role at a company B.

Now that company was a public company, much bigger, with a very strong market position and already worth about 10 billion dollars and counting in market cap.

And I loved the CEO.

I loved the mission.

So I went through my decision framework carefully and thoughtfully and I ended up choosing company B.

In the next few years, company A surprisingly faced tremendous growth challenges.

It eventually had to shut down, but company B's stock went through the roof, up by more than 500%.

In retrospect, the decision I made looks like a brilliant move, right?

But here's the twist.

A few years later, I had already moved on from the company and I had retired,

but the industry dynamics changed so suddenly that the company's stock plummeted and it wiped out almost 90% of its value.

I still had stocks in there.

I should have sold the remaining positions, but I didn't.

And it cost me a fortune.

And this is the heart of what Annie Duke teaches in thinking in bets.

You can play a hand with perfect skills and get lucky and still lose.

We have to get ruthless about separating what is skill and what is luck.

So let's unpack my decision process way she would.

The first decision to choose company B was a skill.

I suppressed my ego, I didn't get seduced by the CEO role, and made the right choice.

But that rise in stock price that followed, that was pure luck.

And finally, not selling the stock at the right time was just my dumb mistake.

It was my greed and my emotional attachment to the company, and literally my delusion that it will come back.

It wasn't some bad luck, it was just a dumb mistake.

So this has happened to me many times and it will happen to me again.

And if you are ambitious enough to play the high-stakes games, it will happen to you too.

So here's the tool.

Don't ask was I skilled or lucky because you're most likely both

and also because your self-serving bias has already rigged that answer.

Picture someone else making the same exact move and then put them on a dial from pure luck to pure skill.

90-10, 50-50, that's the most honest number you can come up with.

Your job is not to look back

and beat yourself over the luck you couldn't control or the skills you had or you didn't have.

Your job is to audit the process, learn the lesson, and get ready for the next bet

and more importantly know when to fold

that was my mistake i didn't get out on time

100

and by the way if you like reading more about tools

101

and frameworks like these you can subscribe to my newsletter as

102

well i write it every tuesday one insight one tool one practice the link is below

103

and it's totally free the key takeaway is this sometimes the same decision can be smart

104

or lucky or foolish at different points in your life story.

105

That's life.

106

So now some of you may say, well then you have to wait until you have all the information so then you'll know which one is which.

107

Well that's a fallacy and we'll see why next.

108

We keep waiting to feel certain before making big decisions and that's why we wait forever.

109

So in thinking in bets, Annie Duke makes a simple point.

110

Every decision is a bet against the future.

111

You're choosing between multiple futures you cannot fully see.

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A job, a house, a partner, a company.

113

You're not supposed to know everything.

114

If you knew everything, it wouldn't be called a bet.

115

You never have perfect information.

116

Also, having more information doesn't always help.

117

A Columbia researcher named Sheena Iyengar found something very interesting in a grocery store.

118

She set out a table with six jams to taste.

119

Next weekend, she came back to the same station, set up the same table, but put out 24 jams for people to taste.

120

The bigger display and more options attracted more people to the table.

121

But when it actually came time to buy, the people who saw six jams bought more than the people who saw 24.

122

More information and more options didn't give them more certainty to buy the product, it just made the decision harder.

123

Sometimes more information can feel safer, but most of the time it's just causing analysis paralysis.

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It's just another excuse not to move forward.

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And I think this is the key difference between chess and poker.

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Chess is hard, but the entire board is clearly visible.

127

You can see every piece.

128

You can see the current positions.

129

But when it comes to poker, the truth is hidden.

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You don't know the other person's cards.

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You don't know what card will come next.

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And you don't know when someone is bluffing.

133

And that is way more closer to our lives.

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Because in life, you never get to see the full board.

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So here's one practical move I use.

136

I make a two column decision table.

137

In the first column, I write all the known facts.

138

What is actually visible?

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What do I know?

140

And in the second column, all the hidden cards.

141

What is unknown?

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What am I assuming?

143

What I'm hoping to be true?

144

Once you separate what is known from what is unknown, your decision gets cleaner.

145

Now, even if you don't have all the information, you still have to make the bet and ask what beliefs you're going to be betting on.

146

That's where we go next.

147

There is a famous study called They Saw a Game.

148

There are two universities, Dartmouth and Princeton.

149

They're both in Northeast America.

150

Researchers had students from both universities watch the same football game.

151

Their own universities were playing against each other.

152

Same place, same penalties, yet Dartmouth fans swore Princeton played dirty.

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And Princeton fans saw the exact opposite.

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They saw the game through the team they already believed in.

155

That's why some beliefs can start distorting what you see.

156

That is also one of the core ideas in thinking in bets, that every decision is a bet built on what you believe.

157

This is why fake news works, really.

158

It feeds into what we already want to believe.

159

For example, for years, people have clung to this headline that red wine is good for your heart.

160

Why?

161

Because people like drinking red wine when they come home and they want to relax in the evening.

162

Research has since debunked that myth clearly many, many times over.

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But the belief has stuck around because it tells us what we want to hear.

164

What's the action?

165

Use these two moves.

166

Number one, replace your binary thinking with probabilities.

167

Instead of saying right or wrong or good or bad decision, ask, how confident am I?

168

Am I 70% sure or 80% sure?

169

And number two, ask the key question to yourself.

170

You wanna bet?

171

That's a great question.

172

It's from the book.

173

When you feel certain about some beliefs, imagine putting $100 or $1,000 dollars on that belief.

174

It will force you to examine and define exactly what you believe in and based on what evidence.

175

So it's better to start asking why you believe it.

176

Okay, so we've thought about our luck, our skills, our beliefs, and now we've come to a point where we're ready to make a decision

177

and we're going to need a framework for it.

178

That's where we go next.

179

In In the Odyssey, the protagonist knew about the siren's song.

180

He knew it would hijack his mind.

181

Sailors who had heard it before had lost control and crashed into the rocks.

182

So before he heard those songs, while his head was still clear,

183

he asked his crew to tie him to a ship's mast and ignore anything he said once the song began.

184

Today, psychologists call it the Ulysses Contract, a rule your present self makes to protect you from your future self.

185

The book gives us the same type of principle, but we have to go beyond the book now and build our own practical framework to put that advice into action.

186

This is where I use a decision-making framework I call AVA, Expected Value Analysis.

187

Emotions can have a seat at the table, sure, but AVA gets the first vote.

188

It's a four step process.

189

First, before making any decision, map out the scenarios.

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Put four or five branches on paper.

191

Great success, moderate success, minor failure, a catastrophic failure.

192

Once these possibilities are on paper, the fog starts to clear.

193

Second, assign payoffs to each of these options.

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Put a dollar figure on each branch.

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How much will your gain be if it's a success?

196

How much will you lose if it's a failure?

197

And by the way, you don't have to value your payoffs in terms of hard cash.

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Include whatever matters to you.

199

your time, your reputation, your health, impact on your family, anything.

200

And third, assign the odds.

201

Give each branch a probability score.

202

What is the likelihood of that outcome happening?

203

Do it based on the information you have today.

204

And the fourth and final step is to calculate the expected value, which is to multiply the payoff by the probability.

205

The evaluation process is more important than the actual numbers because you can stress test all the scenarios, look at the worst case scenario,

206

figure out once you put the numbers down, imagine it's 12 months out from now and everything has failed completely.

207

You can write down your version of how it failed and what happened.

208

When you script that detailed disaster story before it has happened,

209

your brain builds the exit ramps before the crash ever occurs.

210

That is the point of Ava.

211

It doesn't make your decision certain.

212

It helps you understand why it's uncertain.

213

And it helps you manage the most dangerous side effect of your decision.

214

And that's where we go next.

215

In poker, there is a condition called tilt.

216

It's the exact moment your last hand completely infects your next move.

217

You play a hand correctly, lose anyway, and your anger and your fear and your frustration

218

and your wounded pride all of them take over or the exact opposite might happen too.

219

You win so big and you start betting like you're invincible and both extremes are illusions.

220

This is one of the book's key messages and here's where the biggest trap is.

221

When you start tilting it is obvious to everyone else but it's invisible to you because tilt

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serves you a very toxic self punishment.

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When you fail, you start thinking, why do I always screw things up?

224

And you're locked into that world.

225

You can't see outside of it.

226

And that is one of the biggest enemies of making great bets.

227

Regret.

228

That's what keeps the last hand alive inside the next one.

229

But regret after a loss is part and parcel of how we all feel as human beings, right?

230

There is nothing you can do to change what was gone, what is lost.

231

But regret should heal, not harm.

232

If you lose money, it doesn't mean you get out of the market just when it's recovering.

233

I've done that.

234

If you get fired, it doesn't mean you stop applying to the next amazing job.

235

I've done that too.

236

If someone breaks your heart, it doesn't mean you stop believing you could be loved again.

237

This happens to all of us, but this is where we have to go beyond the book.

238

The real lesson is not about card games.

239

It's about realizing that outcomes can lie to you,

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your beliefs can distort you and your past regrets can paralyze you.

241

All of it is inevitable.

242

It's going to happen.

243

But a regret is only wasted if it doesn't improve your next bet.

244

One of my favorite songwriters, John Prine, has a song with this phrase I love, the blind spot of regret.

245

because the past follows you everywhere you go.

246

We hang it like a relic on our rearview mirror and we keep glancing at it while we're trying to drive forward.

247

But the rearview mirror can't steer the car.

248

You can hang your regrets where you can see them and then drive forward.

249

Take the new turn, make the new bed.

250

The road ahead only cares about how lucky you can get.

251

I'll see you next week.

252

Thank you and I love you.

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Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку

Этот урок разговорной практики уровня B2 построен на видео «If You Only Read One Book This Year, Make It This». Чаще всего повторяются слова: decision, bet, skill, luck. В этом видео 252 предложений и 2847 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 18:21. Говорящий говорит в естественном темпе, около 155 слов в минуту, близком к повседневной речи. 85% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка; остальные стоит разобрать перед занятием.

Ключевая лексика этого видео

Самые сложные слова из видео (15), с произношением и значением:

Слово	Произношение	Значение
poker существительное	/ˈpoʊkɚ/	кочерга́
tilt глагол	/tɪlt/	наклоня́ть
probability существительное	/ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/	вероя́тность, правдоподо́бие
jam существительное	/ˈd͡ʒæm/	джем, варе́нье
scenario существительное	/sɪˈnɛəɹioʊ/	сцена́рий
distort глагол	/dɪsˈtɔːt/	искажа́ть, искази́ть
assign глагол	/əˈsaɪn/	назнача́ть, назна́чить
researcher существительное	/ˈɹiˌsɝ.t͡ʃɚ/	иссле́дователь, иссле́довательница
chess существительное	/t͡ʃɛs/	ша́хматы
bias существительное	/ˈbaɪ.əs/	предубежде́ние, предвзя́тость
insight существительное	/ˈɪnsaɪ̯t/	интроспе́кция, инса́йт
emotion существительное	/ɪˈməʊ.ʃən/	эмо́ция, чу́вство
counterintuitive прилагательное	/ˌkaʊntəɹɪnˈtuɪtɪv/	контринтуити́вный
debunk глагол	/dɪˈbʌŋk/	развенчивать, разоблачать
delusion существительное	/dɪˈl(j)uːʒ(ə)n/	обма́н, введе́ние в заблужде́ние

Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите

Слово	Произношение	Значение
come back глагол		возвраща́ться, возврати́ться
figure out глагол		разбира́ться, разобра́ться
come up with глагол		придумывать, приходить в голову
end up глагол		зака́нчиваться, зако́нчиться
look back глагол		огля́дываться, огляну́ться
move forward глагол		продвига́ть, продви́нуть
put out глагол		выкла́дывать, вы́ложить
set out глагол	/ˈsɛt‿aʊt/	устана́вливать

Фразы, которые стоит повторять

Короткие законченные фразы из видео, которые пригодятся в повседневном разговоре:

That's where we go next.
You're choosing between multiple futures you cannot fully see.
What I'm hoping to be true?
How much will your gain be if it's a success?
How much will you lose if it's a failure?

Грамматика в этом видео

Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:

Конструкция	В видео
Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас	has happened · has already rigged · have clung
Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает	be rewarded · may not be connected · be called
Придаточные определительные who / which + предложение — уточнение о человеке или предмете	people who saw · value, which is

Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание

Говорящий использует 53 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например didn't, don't, you're. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.

Звуки «th»: thoughtfully /ˈθɔtfəli/, ruthless /ˈɹuːθləs/, myth /mɪθ/
Звуки «sh» и «zh»: emotion /ɪˈməʊ.ʃən/, delusion /dɪˈl(j)uːʒ(ə)n/, visionary /ˈvɪʒəˌnɛɹi/, foolish /ˈfuː.lɪʃ/, illusion /ɪˈl(j)uːʒ(ə)n/
Длинные слова — следите за ударением: probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/, counterintuitive /ˌkaʊntəɹɪnˈtuɪtɪv/, invincible /ɪnˈvɪn.sə.bəl/, paralysis /pəˈɹæləsəs/, visionary /ˈvɪʒəˌnɛɹi/

Звуки, трудные для русскоязычных:

/w/ — губы округлены, это не /v/: takeaway /ˈteɪkəweɪ/, wipe /waɪp/
/h/ — лёгкий выдох, а не русское «х»: heartache /ˈhɑːteɪk/, hijack /ˈhaɪ.d͡ʒæk/, humility /hjuːˈmɪlɪti/, likelihood /ˈlaɪklihʊd/, headline /ˈhɛd.laɪn/
Звонкие согласные в конце слова — не оглушайте их: counterintuitive /ˌkaʊntəɹɪnˈtuɪtɪv/, extremes /ɪkˈstɹimz/, paralyze /ˈpæɹəˌlaɪz/, greed /ɡɹiːd/, rig /ɹɪɡ/

Как заниматься с этим видео

Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
Начните со скорости 0,75×, повторяйте предложение за предложением и вернитесь к обычной скорости, когда станет легко.
Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как poker, tilt, probability.

Что такое техника Shadowing?

Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.

Техника шедоуинга: читать полное пошаговое руководство →

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Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку

Ключевая лексика этого видео

Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите

Фразы, которые стоит повторять

Грамматика в этом видео

Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание

Как заниматься с этим видео

Что такое техника Shadowing?