Shadowing Practice: 지금부터가 진짜 시작? 비트마인 톰 리가 코인 추가 상승을 전망하는 이유 - Learn English Speaking with Video
Ders oluşturuluyor...
1
This crypto bull market is probably going to be bigger than other cycles.
2
Every crypto bull market has a driver.
3
It was the ICO boom, NFT boom.
4
The first is tokenization.
5
There is a mistake to think just because AI stocks are doing well, crypto won't do well.
6
In the world of AI and agents, crypto plays a critical role.
7
The use of AI agents trading crypto, using crypto, creating an economy, That's just beginning and that's another major wave.
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직접 Insights Report 자, 그러면 오늘은 톱니와 함께 과연 월가의 시선으로 한국 시장은 어떻게 보이는지
9
또 모두에 관심사기도 하죠 암호 앞에서 이더리움 시장은 어떻게 보고 계시는지 한번 알아보도록 하겠습니다 선생님 안녕하십니까?
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안녕하십니까?
11
펀드 스트랩의 공동창업자이자 또 리서치 총괄을 굉장히 오래 하셨더라고요 그러니까 리서치를 오래 하셨다 보니까 이 월가에서 과연 우리나라 한국 주식시장을
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I'm curious about how to look at the market, and how can I look at the market, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it,
13
and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it,
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and how can I look at it, and how can I look at it, and how can few years,
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because of the AI boom and the boom happening with NVIDIA and Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung and Hynix, investors have become very interested.
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And there are some new ways for them to get exposure, like the DRAM ETF and the listing of Hynix.
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So U .S investors view Korea as central to the AI trade.
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So when a U .S investor says, I want to have exposure to AI, They say, of course, NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, of course, MAG7,
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and of course, Samsung and SK Hynix.
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So it's very much not only a central part of the trade, but they like Korea because they realize Korea is a bottleneck as well.
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You know, they're a manufacturing partner for AI, and of course, really critical when it comes to memory.
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If you want to invest in Korea, do you think there are some of the things that you want to see in Korea?
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Well, thematically, Korea sits at an important juncture because they are a supplier to not only the United States,
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right, and especially industrial shipping and defense but they're also a critical manufacturing partner in the greater Asia area.
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So I do think investors are probably more familiar with like the industrials.
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And in the US, there is the Hanwha ETF, KDEF.
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And I know that that's done very well.
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So I do think there is interest and they've gathered some assets.
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But when it comes to things like Korean financials or Korean consumer I don't think American investors are as familiar with those.
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I've seen an interview that Ethereum can go to 6 million dollars.
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Oh, so I'm an Ethereum investor.
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I'm an Ethereum investor.
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Can you tell us a lot about Ethereum?
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Ethereum is probably one of the most important cryptocurrencies out there
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because it is the most widely used and adopted for tokenization at the moment.
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And Ethereum has been highly secure, 100 % uptime, never had any downtime.
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And the current evolution roadmap includes increasing block size and speed capabilities.
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So Ethereum today is at 2 ,600, 2 ,700.
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The prior high was 5 ,000.
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Where do I think Ethereum should be in the future?
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I think 60 ,000 is very achievable because, for instance, in the next crypto bull market, and we believe a crypto bull market starting,
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Ethereum is leading this up move.
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For instance, since the end of June, Ethereum is the best performing major crypto.
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So it's outperformed Solana and it's outperformed Bitcoin.
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And in the last two major bull markets, Ethereum went up.
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anywhere from 17 times to 60 times
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so if the old high was 50 ,000
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or 5 ,000 just a 10x move is 50 ,000 a
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12 times move is 60 ,000 do I think you can justify 60 ,000 ETH in a few years?
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I think it's still very possible 그럼 이것도 약간 개조이긴 한데
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AI가 최근에 발달하면서 이런 이더리움 같은 암호화폐 가격에 좀 긍정적인 영향을
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미칠 수 있지 않을까 기대하는 분들이 많이 계시는데 What do you think about the AI stocks that are doing well,
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crypto won't do well?
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What's really worked in 2026 is not just AI stocks only, but the downstream stories.
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And the downstream stories that are really obvious to AI are MAG7 and software,
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including cybersecurity, and then of course it's crypto because in the world of AI and agents, crypto plays a critical role.
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One is it's going to serve a role of keeping humans in the loop, whether it's on security or enforcing contracts.
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We're already seeing so many stories of AI escaping labs, AI breaking rules, sending emails on your behalf.
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Well, with smart contracts, you can literally enforce code.
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The second, of course, is actually payment systems.
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AI AI is going to start using digital money, traditional payment rails are too slow and the units are too large,
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I don't think AI agents are going to necessarily be using visa cards, bank transfers, they're going to be carrying crypto wallet,
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so crypto is the downstream story for AI 최근에 시장에서 한국
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투자자들은 이 clarity 법안의 통과가 좌초되면서 좀 시장에 부정적인 영향을 미치지
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않을까 좀 걱정을 많이 했거든요 근데 얼마 전에 톰 류님이 말한
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걸 보니까 이런 입법의 불확실성은 대세를 꺾을 수 없다 이렇게 얘기해 주셨거든요 그것도 어떻게 생각하십니까?
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really well.
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Crypto prices have been going up more dramatically ever since Clarity failed.
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And I think it reflects two things.
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One is without Clarity Act,
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90 % of what needs to be regulating crypto is going to be accomplished by rulemaking from the CFTC and the SEC.
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The Clarity Act simply just deems them as the organizations that have authority, but they already have authority today.
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But I think the other thing for everyone to keep in mind is that the Clarity Act had bipartisan support.
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Bipartisan means the Democrats and the Republicans both supported the bill.
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But before midterm elections, if the Clarity Act passed before the midterms, then it's, quote, President Trump bill, right?
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So the Republicans would take credit.
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That's why it failed because the Democrats didn't want to support a bill
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that was going to help the Republicans for the midterms.
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After the midterm elections, whichever party is going to be controlling the Senate and the House will support the Clarity Act.
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So it's going to pass anyways.
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It probably just happens after the midterms.
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Okay, I understand.
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We said this year is that in June, we thought crypto was entering crypto spring.
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So we've now decisively seen evidence that that was correct, that a crypto bull market started at the end of June.
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Why do we believe there is a bull market underway is many reasons.
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Number one, Bitcoin is above its 200 -day moving average.
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That has never happened in a bear market.
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So Bitcoin is clearly back into a bull market.
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ETF flows into crypto have turned positive for the year.
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That never happens in a bear market.
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So we have positive flows into Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin and Ethereum and Solana performance, Ethereum has doubled from its lows.
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That has never happened in a bear market.
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And October 5th, that's what people call the four -year cycle.
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We actually had argued crypto was going to bottom before the four -year cycle.
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And again, it looks like we're correct.
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So if our view is correct, then crypto is going to have a very big move between today and the end of the year.
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The reason you can argue crypto has a lot of upside is that gold has improved.
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It's gold. has made new highs.
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Bitcoin is digital gold, so the ceiling for Bitcoin, the minimum ceiling is Bitcoin should have the same value as gold,
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and that's two and a half million dollar Bitcoin, and Bitcoin's at 80 ,000 today.
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Well, if Bitcoin can get to two and a half million, and that's simply serving as a quote,
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store value, then cryptos like Ethereum should go up even more.
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A lot of investors were believing crypto was going to strictly follow the four -year cycle,
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and in fact, that's what kept many people out of the crypto market many what they call crypto goats,
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original investors, aren't planning to buy crypto until October.
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They were actually trying to short the move from June 30th into October.
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So I think it caught many people by surprise.
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But again, that was not our view.
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We believed crypto was going to bottom earlier, which in fact it has.
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That skepticism that people have today, because Because October isn't even here yet, Bitcoin has moved a lot, and a lot of people are bearish.
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That's going to fuel upside into the end of the year.
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So, I think we can get upside -downs to what's going on in the market.
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What's going on in the market?
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What's going on in the market?
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We can probably just look at the last 12 months and say, what triggered the downside moves in crypto, and it's really been two things.
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One is quantum risks.
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There's a lot of concerns about Bitcoin and its vulnerability to quantum.
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Ethereum and Solana and others have less risk around that
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because the wallets can be upgraded and the networks themselves are upgraded frequently.
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Ethereum upgrades every six months.
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So quantum resistance is going to develop very quickly on the smart contract platforms.
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But Bitcoin still has not decided how they're going to deal with quantum risk.
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That, I think, is a potential downside risk, because if a researcher announces that what they call Q -day, quantum day, is moving up,
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before a solution is created, people are going to worry about Bitcoin.
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The second downside risk is what we call deleveraging events.
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That was October last year, was a massive unwind of leverage.
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And then earlier this year, in February, when the war started, there was a huge amount of deleveraging.
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The good news is crypto markets don't have a lot of leverage at the moment, so that the leveraging risk is much smaller.
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Are you looking at that?
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Are you wondering if the investors are going to be better at any time?
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That's why this crypto bull market is probably going to be bigger than other cycles
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because every crypto bull market has a driver.
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In 2016, 2017 it was the ICO boom.
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In 2019 to 2021 it was the NFT boom.
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Last year, it was the adoption of stablecoins.
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In the next few years, there's two major waves driving crypto adoption.
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The first is tokenization.
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Tokenization is really turning dollars, stocks, bonds, real estate into digital renditions.
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That's being embraced by BlackRock, Robinhood, Revolut, Fidelity.
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That's a massive, massive wave that's going to be using Ethereum and Solana to create these tokenized assets.
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Since 2017, the ratio of what they call assets on a blockchain to its underlying value has been one -to -one.
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So if you have a trillion dollars of assets tokenized on Ethereum, the network value should be roughly a trillion.
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There's 140 trillion of assets that can be tokenized.
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So the upside is substantial.
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And the use of AI agents trading crypto, using crypto, using crypto wallets, creating an economy, that's just beginning.
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And that's another major wave.
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So to me, I think that this crypto bull market is going to be less about Bitcoin and a lot more about Ethereum Then,
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if tokenization is in the AI era, will it be faster?
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Well, AI is advancing at a pace that seems to be going faster, right?
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Like Meta's Muse, for instance, is a big increase in functionality, or what they call gain -of -function.
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This is before physical AI has actually been deployed.
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What I mean by that is the next wave is going to be robots
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and appliances and cars and drones that have AI capabilities and interacting in the real world.
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That's also a lot more risk to human systems because if you have a drone that's actually carrying money,
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how are we going to be sure that that agent and robot is acting on actual instructions or to take a rogue?
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That's where you're going to need to keep, quote, humans in the loop.
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And again, one of the most secure ways to keep humans in the loop and enforce contracts is a smart contract,
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a blockchain, which of course is Ethereum or Solana.
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Then I would like to ask a little bit more about what I would like to ask.
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Ethereum, public blockchain, and the public blockchain, they will be able to make the money on the chain.
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They will be able to do this, not to be able to do this.
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What do you think is more important?
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Anybody can use and create their own private chains.
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But the one issue is going to be, will other people use it?
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If you create tokens on a private chain, and other institutions, and the public don't actually use it,
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then it's basically no different than software.
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And we've already seen ample evidence of that, that companies have tried to launch their own, what they call L1, their own blockchains.
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For instance, Tempo is from Stripe, but it's not being widely used, because everyone says, well, that's a Stripe blockchain.
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And Stripe will put their fat finger on that chain to make sure it benefits Stripe.
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I think that's the reason why public chains work well, because there are neutral settlement layers and it allows innovation to happen.
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Ultimately, the key question is going to be in this world of tokenization and rapid tokenization of assets,
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are companies that are native crypto that build organizations that tokenize from scratch,
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are they going to do better than traditional financial institutions trying to tokenize and trying to keep those systems in closed loops?
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Robinhood is a great example.
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Their Robinhood chain, which is an L2 of Ethereum, has been a breakaway success.
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But that's because the L2 is EVM compatible runs on Ethereum.
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And Robinhood, I would say, in some ways looks like a native digital company, much more than a traditional financial institution.
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The S &P 500 right now is 7 ,700.
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So 8 ,200 is roughly a 10 % rise.
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This is a midterm election year.
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So we have three months left or what they call the final quarter.
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A 10 % rise, I think, is actually pretty modest upside in a typical year.
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So I think 8 ,200 is actually the low side.
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I think the S &P could move more in the final quarter because number one, the midterm election uncertainty is behind us.
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And once that's behind us, I think you're gonna see Congress actually change some positions.
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For instance, before the election, over the midterms, the Democratic Party has been vocally opposing data centers and AI and hyperscalers.
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But part of the reason for their opposition is that hyperscalers
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and building these data centers and supporting them only helped the Republicans who are in control of the Senate.
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If the Democrats become and control the Senate after the midterms, they'll support hyperscalers and data centers, which means the AI trade will come back big.
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Similarly, as I mentioned before, the CLARITY Act.
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Democratic opposition, if they control the Senate, they're going to support passage of the Clarity Act, and that'll be good for crypto.
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So I think a lot of things get clarified after the midterms, and that's why I think stocks do well in the fourth quarter.
194
So, I think that's why I think stocks do well in the fourth quarter.
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I think it's going to look forward to the end of the rally.
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I think it's going to look forward to the end of the rally.
197
I think it's going to look forward to the end of the rally.
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I think it's going to look forward to the end of the rally.
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To me, the leadership that comes out of the third quarter, third quarter is June 30th to September 30th.
200
Whatever leads in the third quarter, unless there's some reason they won't continue to have support in the fourth quarter, should be leading in the fourth quarter.
201
It's another what you call a second half trade.
202
The best performing trade in the third quarter so far is crypto crypto, and many institutions have zero exposure to crypto.
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So I think they're going to chase Ethereum and Bitcoin and Solana in the fourth quarter.
204
So that's number one.
205
To me, I think the AI trade comes back.
206
So semis, hyperscalers, Nvidia come back strong in the fourth quarter.
207
The Mag7 is a downstream trade and software, they've already done well in the third quarter.
208
We think they'll be strong in the fourth quarter.
209
The wild card is whether inflation data comes in better than expected.
210
That's been our view.
211
And if that's the case, then the Fed will be less hawkish, which means they're less likely to hike,
212
then groups like financials and industrials and small caps will do well.
213
But I'd say regardless of what the Fed does, crypto leads in the fourth quarter.
214
But we have a lot of concern about the U .S.
215
The U .S economy is concerned about the U .S economy
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and the U .S economy is concerned about the U .S economy and the U .S.
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economy is concerned about the U .S economy and the U .S economy is concerned about the U .S.
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economy is concerned about the U .S economy and the U .S.
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economy is concerned about the U .S economy.
220
And of course, a lot of people who borrow money, this is creating a lot of pain.
221
But the stock market can handle higher interest rates.
222
Because one of the reasons interest rates are going up is that US growth is picking up.
223
So strong growth is usually associated with higher rates.
224
Crypto has massively outperformed expectations.
225
Because people said if interest rates go up, crypto should go down, and crypto is having a huge quarter already,
226
so to me, I think it's proof that crypto isn't a bull market, if crypto can go up on bad news, it's a bull market.
227
Okay, so you came from Korea to Korea, and there are a lot of foreign assets in Korea, and there are a lot of foreign assets in Korea.
228
So, I would like to say, how do you invest in Korea?
229
Well, there's some advice we give to our clients in the US all the time, which is number one, don't time the market.
230
I think a lot of people made a mistake dumping the crypto early this year
231
because they said they gave up believing AI is the only trade, and they missed out on huge moves,
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including BitMine, which made a huge move from 15 to almost 30.
233
But number two,
234
we really advise investors to be careful about using leverage or margin debt Because whenever someone carries debt on their trade,
235
they'll sometimes be forced to liquidate a position before time has come out in their favor So again,
236
if they want to have exposure, especially to volatile assets like AI and Crypto,
237
I would not borrow money to make those investments Have you ever come to Korea to come to Korea?
238
Yes, we have plans to visit Korea again.
239
It's an important market.
240
It's a market that is important because not only are Korean investors active US investors, but they have access to US stocks.
241
But of course, Korean investors are active in crypto.
242
So yeah, it's a market that we will visit many times in a year.
243
알겠습니다 오늘은 정말 보시기 어려운 비트마이너 회장님이신 톰니 선생님과 함께 이야기를
244
나눠봤습니다 톰니 선생님은 오늘 여러분들 인터뷰 들으셔서 알겠지만 굉장히 사실 강한
245
뷰로 유명하신 분이죠 오늘도 미국 시장과 가상자산에 대해서 아마 굉장히 좋은
246
말을 해주셨는데 여러분들의 투자에 많은 도움이 되셨기를 한번 기대해보겠습니다 오늘 함께 오신 톰니 회장님에게 인사드리고 마무리하도록 하겠습니다 여러분 감사합니다 감사합니다
247
Thank you.
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Bu dersin kelimeleri ve konuşma notları
Bu videoda gölgeleme çalışması için 238 cümle ve 3267 kelime var. Konuşma bölümü 24:43 sürüyor. Konuşmacı dakikada yaklaşık 132 kelimelik dengeli bir hızla konuşuyor; gölgeleme için rahat bir tempo. Kelimelerin yalnızca %80’i İngilizcede en sık kullanılan 3.000 kelime arasında, bu yüzden kelime dağarcığı zorlayıcı.
Bu videodaki önemli kelimeler
Videodan daha az kullanılan 15 kelime, telaffuzu ve anlamıyla:
- investor /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ (isim) — yatırımcı, sermayedar. A person who invests money in order to make a profit.
- asset /ˈæsɛt/ (isim) — varlık. A thing or quality that has value, especially one that generates cash flows.
- blockchain (isim) — blok zinciri. A shared record of past transactions in a distributed network, typically used for cryptocurrency.
- quantum /ˈkwɑntəm/ (isim) — kuantum, nicem. The total amount of something; quantity.
- upside /ˈʌpˌsaɪd/ (isim) — üst taraf. The highest or uppermost side or portion of something.
- exposure /ɪkˈspəʊ.ʒə(ɹ)/ (isim) — maruziyet. The condition of being exposed, uncovered, or unprotected.
- institution /ˌɪn.stɪˈtʃuː.ʃən/ (isim) — müessese, kuruluş. A long-established organization or type of organization, particularly one involved with education, public service, or charity work.
- rally /ˈɹæli/ (isim) — miting, gösteri. A public gathering or mass meeting that is not mainly a protest and is organized to inspire enthusiasm for a cause.
- loop /luːp/ (isim) — ilik. A length of thread, line or rope that is doubled over to make an opening.
- leverage /ˈlɛv.(ə.)ɹɪd͡ʒ/ (isim) — kaldıraç kuvveti. A force compounded by means of a lever rotating around a pivot.
- upgrade /əpˈɡɹeɪd/ (fiil) — iyileştirmek, düzeltmek. To improve, usually applied to technology, generally by complete replacement of one or more components.
- wallet /ˈwɑl.ət/ (isim) — cüzdan, portföy. A small case, often flat and often made of leather, for keeping money (especially paper money), credit cards, etc.
- downside /ˈdaʊnˌsaɪd/ (isim) — dezavantaj. A disadvantageous aspect of something that is normally advantageous.
- argue /ˈɑɹ.ɡju/ (fiil) — münakaşa etmek, tartışmak. To show grounds for concluding (that); to indicate, imply.
- roughly /ˈɹʌf.li/ (zarf) — kabaca. In a rough manner; without kindness, softness, or gentleness.
Duyacağınız deyimsel fiiller
- look at (fiil) — bakmak. To observe or watch.
- look forward to (fiil) — iple çekmek, dört gözle beklemek. To anticipate, expect, or wait for, especially with a feeling of approval or pleasure; to be excited or eager to.
Dikkat edilecek telaffuzlar
Konuşmacı they're, don't, I'm gibi kısaltılmış biçimleri 37 kez kullanıyor. Bunları duyduğunuz gibi kısa söyleyin.
- “sh” ve “zh” sesleri: exposure /ɪkˈspəʊ.ʒə(ɹ)/, institution /ˌɪn.stɪˈtʃuː.ʃən/, adoption /əˈdɑp.ʃən/, evolution /ˌiːvəˈluːʃ(ə)n/, ratio /ˈɹeɪ.ʃoʊ/
- Uzun kelimeler — vurguyu doğru yere koyun: institution /ˌɪn.stɪˈtʃuː.ʃən/, capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, necessarily /ˌnɛs.əˈsɛɹ.ə.li/, evolution /ˌiːvəˈluːʃ(ə)n/, innovation /ˌɪn.əˈveɪ.ʃən/
Bu videoyla nasıl çalışılır
- Videonun tamamını konuşmadan bir kez dinleyin ve bilmediğiniz kelimeleri not edin.
- Normal hızda cümle cümle tekrar edin; ritminiz konuşmacıyla aynı olana kadar her cümleyi yineleyin.
- Kendinizi kaydedin ve orijinaliyle karşılaştırın; investor, asset, blockchain gibi kelimelere özellikle dikkat edin.
Bu videodaki dil bilgisi
Konuşmacının en çok kullandığı yapılar, videodaki sözcüklerin aynısıyla:
| Yapı | Videoda |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + fiilin üçüncü hâli — geçmişte olan ama şimdi de önemli olan bir eylem | have become · they've gathered · I've seen |
| Edilgen yapı be + fiilin üçüncü hâli — kimin yaptığı değil, ne olduğu önemli | be accomplished · can be upgraded · is created |
| İlgi cümlecikleri who / which + cümle — bir kişi ya da şey hakkında ek bilgi | chain, which is · centers, which means · hawkish, which means |
Gölgeleme Tekniği Nedir?
Gölgeleme, başlangıçta profesyonel tercüman eğitimi için geliştirilen ve çok dilli Dr. Alexander Arguelles tarafından popüler hale getirilen, bilim destekli bir dil öğrenme tekniğidir. Yöntem basit ama güçlüdür: ana dili İngilizce olan bir sesi dinler ve hemen yüksek sesle tekrar edersiniz — konuşmacıyı 1-2 saniye gecikmeyle takip eden bir gölge gibi. Pasif dinleme veya dilbilgisi alıştırmalarının aksine, gölgeleme beyninizi ve ağız kaslarınızı gerçek konuşma kalıplarını eşzamanlı olarak işlemeye ve yeniden üretmeye zorlar. Araştırmalar, telaffuz doğruluğu, tonlama, ritim, bağlı konuşma, dinleme anlama ve konuşma akıcılığını önemli ölçüde geliştirdiğini göstermektedir — bu da onu IELTS Konuşma hazırlığı ve gerçek dünya İngilizce iletişimi için en etkili yöntemlerden biri yapar.